Cactus flower 20260121

Emotional and Speculative Market Could Spark Trouble

by with No Comment Behavioral SentimentFeatured HighlightsInvestingRisk ManagementSpeculators

Day Trading Problems: Not Everyday Produces a Profitable Outcome

Early indications show that U.S markets will produce volatility today. The EUR/USD is straddling the 1.19000 level, Gold is around $5005.00. Bitcoin for those that care is near 68,700.00 USD.

Cactus flower 20260121

Flowering Cactus

Not everyday produces profits. That is rather easily dealt with by large speculators, big players and financial institutions who have the time and money to withstand short and near-term storms. The current markets represent danger if you listen to the noise from outside sources – media, analysts and influencers engaged in trying to create opinions a lot of the time. However, bias must be distinguished and another very fundamental thing needs to be accessed.

Day trading is not the same as being a large speculator, big player or financial institution. Day trading usually means a person is a retail trader, a client therefore of a brokerage house. Day traders do not typically have deep pockets.

Getting caught up in the fear factor is a quick way to lose money fast. Gold, Silver, Bitcoin, U.S major indices, Forex have all delivered volatile trading the past few weeks. What looks like a gentle day on tap for day traders must always be treated carefully.

This week the U.S will release Retail Sales, Non-Farm Employment Change data and Consumer Price Index readings.

The jobs numbers which traditionally get released on Fridays and should have been published last week, were delayed because of the quasi-govt shutdown which happened. 

Last night’s Super Bowl was a rather lackluster game, while this has nothing to do with the markets, perhaps it will cause some type of reaction via a need for more noise (emotions) to be heard by those who have a desire for attention they do not deserve. No do not worry, the game’s outcome is not going to affect today’s trading. However, via behavioral sentiment this week’s coming results across a wide range of assets are set to be more entertaining than the Seahawks victory over the Patriots last night.

Day traders have likely made money for their brokers the past couple of weeks as they have taken hits because of volatility. This week could provide more choppiness. Retail traders need to remain careful and not bet on things simply because someone else suggests they are an expert on world affairs when they in actuality are merely getting paid to make noise and sell more bets. And by the way, betting on the Patriots last night to win just because they had won so many times before is a reminder past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.

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Trump: Will He or Won’t He Day and Uncertainty for Investors

by with No Comment AMT MarketsAssetsFeatured Highlights

Trump: Will He or Won't He Day and Uncertainty for Investors

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EURUSD One Month Chart as of 2nd April 2025

Liberation/Tariff Day will blow onto the global financial shores this morning. President Trump and his team are certain to take a victory lap as they announce their decisions regarding actions being imposed on commodities and products. Nations who are on the other end of the drama will be braced for the rhetoric and policies. Investors, trade ministers, financial institutions will have to sift through the pronouncements and consider their outlooks amidst uncertainty.

Trading today will be rough for smaller speculators. Choppy conditions should be expected as behavioral sentiment twists according to shifting winds and interpretations. President Trump is likely to announce aggressive penalties, but he may also try to soothe those who have worried about being punished. As an example, Trump has said recently that India has acted upon many of the White House’s wishes. Mexico, Canada, the European Union and China are likely to be mentioned as the U.S President speaks later today. Will a public scolding take place again?

Equities have faltered the past month, Forex has been volatile and commodity prices have also reflected fragile sentiment as outlooks became grey. The tariff policies announced today will affect all aspects of the financial world. Day traders thinking about wagering on the outcome should be patient and wait for the reactions which unfold from Asia, Europe, Africa, and the Americas. Wall Street will certainly be a barometer, along with the EUR/USD, USD/MXN, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/SGD and gold.

While President Trump declares this is a great and magnificent day for the U.S, it will be of keen interest if an olive branch is offered to trading partners. After talking tough the past few months, financial institutions would like to hear words of optimism from the White House. If belligerence is heard and punitive actions are enacted, which are considered unproductive by investors and financial institutions the broad markets will show their disdain promptly.

President Trump’s skills as a negotiator will be judged today. The White House must play towards its constituency and show they are putting America First, but will the President also display he is cognizant that international trade provides benefits? Trump will point to his claim that he is merely putting tariffs on those who have treated the U.S unjustly and use levies against U.S goods.

It will be an important day for the Trump Presidency, because in many respects the global audience watching will decide whether or not the U.S sees itself as part of the global fabric or seeks a position which is isolationist. Brazil will look on the tariff theater intently, its position as a trading center may find increased demand from a host of nations.

Predicting the results: On the 3rd of February a fast and dangerous Forex market developed which witnessed USD centric strength exhibited with spikes in many currency pairs. In early March reactionary trading was displayed in equity indices, Forex and bonds too. Today will see wide spreads emerge in Forex with near-term resistance and support levels proving vulnerable.

Equities which sold off in March via the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, Dow 30 and the Russell index are certainly hoping for a dose of cheer. The question is if Trump will deliver a positive message. The likelihood is that today’s events will not be the last of the tariff tirades and some proposed actions remain under deliberation. Today is unlikely to produce final results and the broad markets are probably going to be choppy as outlooks stay mitigated and absent of clear resolutions.

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Gold Three Month Chart as of 4th April 2025

Day traders should think safety first today. Gold remains within record territory. If unpredictability rules near-term and the reactions of investors and financial institutions create fast conditions, the precious metal and bonds will find takers. Uncertainty breeds cravings for risk adverse assets.

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Stock Market Narrative and Looking for a Trump Silver Lining

by with No Comment AMT MarketsAssetsFeatured Highlights

Stock Market Narrative and Looking for a Trump Silver Lining

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S&P 500 One Year Chart as of 14th March 2025

U.S stock markets have been hit on the nose in recent weeks, the major indices have put in rather consistent declines since the 19th of February, and the selling frenzy and particularly noise have grown worse since the start of March. Narrative regarding tariffs and a lack of clarity have certainly had a negative effect. The notion that there is a part of the media that wants to see a downturn in the markets and blame President Trump could also be factoring into concerns and fragile sentiment among indices participants. I am not blaming the media for the downturn, just pointing out that there are some entities which are not unhappy about the recent selling in the stock markets, this because it fits comfortably into their narratives.

While the bearish decline on the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow 30 have all been easy to see, defining the dynamics of the downturn, and reactions from day traders and investors are complicated. The stock markets are not guaranteed to always go higher. This may sound naive, but people have gotten so used to the notion that U.S indices always go up that they forget about the potential for downturns. Yes, the stock markets have turned negative, but a one month decline is not uncommon historically. And some of the folks rooting against Donald Trump may want to take that into consideration.

Risk premium has certainly been factored into the markets which has influenced equities, but has created forceful moves in Forex too. Risk adverse tension because of persistent rhetoric about tariffs and their impact on behavioral sentiment cannot be discounted. However, the stock markets are still higher over the past year.

The Trump Effect is certainly being pointed at by many as the cause for the sudden downturn, but it should be remembered that all-time highs occurred after Trump won the election. Yes, the selloff has definitely happened too, and stock markets are now traversing values seen before the election. And support levels are being looked at with caution and more selling could lead to a test of psychological ratios which pressure market confidence further. Yet, it should also be remembered the S&P 500 at this time last year was around the 5,150 ratio compared to its current mark near 5,565.

Day traders have been hard pressed to find momentum with solid wagering opportunities, particularly if they have been in search of a bullish trend in recent weeks. The belief that U.S indices always go up eventually is a solid reference, but in the short-term can cause expensive losses for stubborn betters. Investors certainly have an easier time with stock indices if they practice the long-game and do not worry about the daily and monthly gyrations when their money is parked in indices. The use of leverage when betting on the daily results of stock markets can become ultra expensive for speculators, particularly when upside bias is being counted upon.

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WTI Crude Oil One Year Chart as of 14th March 2015

Data this week from the U.S has actually been positive regarding lower inflation, both the CPI and PPI reports released the past two days has shown a slow down in costs. Yet, these results have little to do with President Trump, since he has only been in power less than two months. However, the lower WTI Crude Oil prices being achieved at this moment will start to factor into weaker inflation and will benefit the U.S economy.

The U.S Federal Reserve will have to be watched, because Fed officials seemingly continue to be among the crowd worried about tariff knock-on repercussions. But it should be remembered during Trump’s first term in office, there were tariff concerns too and inflation was tame. It will take a few months to still see results via inflation under this Trump administration, but if energy prices remain stable and low, this can mitigate circumstances while the tariff winds blow and their effects are waited upon. Interest rates from the Federal Reserve, U.S taxes on the public will continue to come under scrutiny. The likelihood of Trump and the Federal Reserve locking horns regarding interest rates seems to be a certainty in the coming months.

U.S stock markets have proven dangerous for bullish perspectives the past handful of weeks, but the viewpoint that markets have been too discounted will certainly start getting the attention of large players. U.S Treasury yields remain a barometer, but short-term results do not always correlate. Speculators without deep pockets may want to continue to watch from the sidelines.

Traders should also remember there is the ability to short U.S indices, but this brings up the healthy question about when will price support start to become a factor. It is nearly impossible to pick the precise moment financial assets will stage a turnaround for day traders, but history does indicate that bullish sentiment will start to be seen. Betting on a continued downturn could prove more expensive in the end, compared to speculating on upside.

Trading is not easy. It takes a lot of stamina to endure price movements that do not go according to plans. The financial markets are proving difficult for many. We are likely not out of the woods yet because clarity remains problematic, investors who have longer timeframes are likely anxious too. Price velocity needs to be given attention, markets can certainly go lower. However, at some juncture equities will start to look cheap to important long-term players. Behavioral sentiment among investors will likely also start to acclimate to the Trump Effect.

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Trump Bounce Potentially Coming This Week in Equity Indices

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

Trump Bounce Potentially Coming This Week in Equity Indices

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S&P 500 Three Month Chart as of 19th January 2025

Trump: U.S equity markets will be closed Monday for MLK Day. Upwards momentum developing this week as Trump White House takes power would not be surprising.

Retail traders need to know that U.S equity markets will be shuttered on the 20th of January because of the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday. Importantly tomorrow is also the United States Presidential Inauguration. Donald Trump will retake power of the Executive Branch of the U.S government at noon in Washington D.C as he is sworn in as the 47th President. U.S stock markets have produced choppy results the past few months but still remain in sight of highs. It would not be a shock to see optimistic momentum develop on Tuesday in the U.S stock markets near-term.

Yes, financial institutions have known Trump will be taking the White House for two and a half months and have had plenty of time to already react regarding their outlooks. However, from a behavioral sentiment standpoint it is easy to deduce that Trump’s coming inauguration speech tomorrow will deliver a confirmation of his economic policy intentions. Financial institutions near-term may produce optimistic upwards trajectory and they may have psychological targets which take into account late November and early December 2024 highs in the S&P 500.

The coming week will also be light on U.S economic data, except for the weekly Unemployment Claims on Thursday, Flash Manufacturing PMI and Existing Home Sales on Friday. Meaning the week will be driven largely on sentiment generated via President’s Trump’s actions in the coming days. Trump is expected to deliver a series of Executive Orders which will affect outlooks and likely be reflective of his campaign rhetoric spoken the past year.

Retail traders should not bet blindly on upside via CFDs for the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow 30. Near-term prices are not guaranteed to move higher, but there is reason to suspect buying might prove positive. An interesting barometer for price action will certainly be seen via future contracts early on Tuesday morning as financial institutions return to full volume and get set to return after a long holiday weekend. Risk taking tactics should include price targets that are realistic and not be leveraged wildly.

Forex conditions may prove volatile this week, and traders need to remain cautious about betting against the strength of the USD which has been ferocious the past three months. U.S Federal Reserve outlook remains murky and cautious, and nervousness regarding Trump’s intended foreign policy changes including trade negotiations still have to be fully demonstrated. USD centric risk bullishness likely still has ammunition which will be displayed in the coming days.

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous ‘Just the Facts Jack’ on the 14th of Sept.

by with No Comment AMT MarketsAssetsFeatured Highlights

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous 'Just the Facts Jack' on the 14th of Sept.

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10. Word of the Day: Quaestuary, the usage of the word comes from William Manchester’s book A World lit only by Fire. The word is now considered obsolete. Manchester used the Latin word, quaestiarii, to describe profit making by the Roman Catholic Church during the Middle Ages and into the Renaissance. Church ‘officials’ would use their positions of power to raise money dubiously. Promising absolution to the naive via treacherous claims which included the charging of payments for potential sins committed in the future, and a more lenient purgatory for already deceased members of a family who were waiting to be allowed into heaven because of past transgressions.

9. Undecided: With less than two months before the U.S election for President, swing States are crucial battlegrounds for candidates Trump and Harris. Turning purple into red or blue is the prime task for the Republicans and Democrats. Economy, immigration, foreign policy, reproductive rights are among the talking points. Which side can receive the most votes via promises that will be hard to accomplish?

8. Artificial Intelligence: Early this week Oracle Corporation released revenue results and projections showing that profits are increasing due to demand for data centers as the use of AI expands. Cloud services provided by Oracle has become the corporation’s largest source of growth. Investments in big data centers are getting competitive. Data4 has recently announced they are going to invest approximately 300 million EUR into a data center facility in Paiana, Greece. Data4 led by Olivier Micheli, CEO, has announced that it plans on investing around 7 billion EUR into 2030 for expansion.

7. Crude Oil: WTI Crude Oil briefly went above the 70.00 USD mark on Friday, but went into the weekend near 69.33. U.S economic data this coming week (besides the U.S Fed on the 18th) will be limited to manufacturing readings and retail sales data. The notions that the U.S economy is struggling via weaker employment numbers and lackluster GDP, European data remaining murky, while China is not exactly robust is likely causing speculative demand in Crude Oil to remain low. Global energy supply is solid and the Middle East conflict remains somewhat muted.

6. Whipsaw Gains: Major U.S equity indices moved upwards as the Dow 30, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 all produced better weekly results. However, improved momentum mostly occurred as equities reversed from nervous lows on Wednesday. The Dow 30 and S&P 500 are within sight of apex values, while the Nasdaq isn’t far behind. U.S Treasury yields also dropped lower via their totals for the week with the 5, 7, and 10 Year Notes approaching yields last seen in the spring of 2023. The 30 Year Bonds are traversing lower too, but will have to penetrate early 2024 levels to then challenge depths from early 2023.

5. Inflation: Global central banks are having a large internal debate about their target inflation numbers. Trying to agree on what the neutral rate – mean average – over the next year should be is causing central banks to remain cautious about inflation projections. While it is clearly evident that Europe and the U.S are facing economic headwinds the ECB, Fed and BoE seemingly refuse to step on the gas pedal and become aggressively dovish. However, financial institutions who frequently use their mid-term outlooks as guidance continue to lean into their trading positions and seemingly wager on the central banks having to become more dovish. How much can each central bank cut by over the next 6 months? Why not cut by 0.50% to inject easier borrowing rates now? Because apparently it seems all the central banks remain nervous about inflation remaining stubborn. The word stagflation still comes to mind. The decline in Crude Oil prices seen the past few weeks may be a hopeful sign for lower costs.

4. USD/JPY: The currency pair finished trading near the 140.775 ratio on Friday. Trading in the USD/JPY appears to be driven by the notion that financial institutions believe the U.S Federal Reserve is going to have to cut the Federal Funds Rate by 0.75% over the next six months. Behavioral sentiment has a breathtaking history of producing strong trends in the USD/JPY. The Bank of Japan will announce their Monetary Policy Statement on the 20th of September. The USD/JPY was trading near 162.000 in July and its decline lower seems to have surprised some, but why? The BoJ is likely going to sound cautious this coming week, but sitting on their hands and allowing their global counterparts to become more dovish may be enough to keep the USD/JPY within its lower price realm.

3. China Data: Numbers published early this morning showed that New Home Prices continue to fall, Industrial Production has decreased, Retail Sales have dropped, and the Unemployment Rate has risen. China’s economy is suffering. The USD/CYN looks too low at the current rate of 7.0925. The Shanghai Composite (SSE) has fallen to nearly 2,704 and touching lows from early February of 2024. The SSE is down roughly -13.46% over the last year. The Chinese government’s desire to manage the economy with a tight grip continues to produce fractures and should be reconsidered.

2. Gold: The precious metal finished Friday’s trading near 2,577.00. Yesterday’s values hit all-time record prices for Gold versus the USD. The 2,586.00 vicinity was touched before reversing slightly lower. The ability to remain near apex highs going into the weekend highlights large traders likely still have a taste for gold and that long-term investors remain bullish. Is nervousness due to perceived global central bank ineptitude helping to create more gold buying? Short-term speculators need to remain careful within these heights.

1. FOMC Prediction: The European Central Bank’s decision to cut by only 0.25% this past Thursday is almost a sure sign the Federal Reserve will mirror the ECB on the 18th of September. Last week’s prediction by AMT that the ECB would only cut by 0.25% proved to be true, and our outlook for the FOMC’s Federal Fund Rate decision is also a cautious 0.25% cut. While the U.S Consumer Price Index and PPI info published this past Wednesday and Thursday showed inflation is under control, the data also shows a stubborn streak. However, an erosion of inflation is taking place and while the target ‘neutral’ rate is likely being debated behind closed doors, it is also apparent to most outside observers that the Fed is being too cautious and will be ‘forced’ to cut this coming week, November 2024, and early in 2025.

Content

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Battlefronts for the 7th of Sept

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Battlefronts for the 7th of Sept

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10. Cape Town: Springboks take on the All Blacks in Round Four of the Rugby Championship later this afternoon. South Africa won last week’s test. Roster changes have been made to both starting squads. Springboks Captain Siya Kolisi will start, this after he had been listed as questionable earlier this week because of a nose fracture he suffered in last Saturday’s game, which will be dealt with surgically in the near future. The All Blacks are extremely difficult to beat two games in a row, today’s match could be a firecracker.

9. Spy Games: Alleged China spy Linda Sun is accused of trying to influence policy while working in New York Governor Kathy Hochul’s office as an aide. The alleged spy also worked in the previous New York administration under Andrew Cuomo. Sun and her husband, Chris Hu, have been charged by the U.S government to be in violation of the Foreign Agents Registration Act amidst a litany of alleged illegal activities.

8. VPN Wanted: Brazilian Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes has suspended X because of claims the social media service, previously known as Twitter, is allowing ‘misinformation’. Justice Alexandre de Moraes has broad powers and is permitting Brazil’s ruling government led by Lula da Silva to walk a perilous line that does not allow for free expression. Brazil has not heard the last of Elon Musk.

7. Boeing: Starliner returned to earth last night touching down in New Mexico, but without the astronauts it delivered to space in early June. The mission was supposed to take 8 days, but instead stranded the two astronauts on the International Space Station. NASA has stated it was potentially dangerous for the astronauts to return in Starliner. The astronauts are now scheduled to return in February 2025 with SpaceX. Starliner is owned by Boeing. This time last year Boeing’s share value was near 219.00, as of yesterday it is 157.62 USD.

6. Xmas in October: Nicolas Maduro, the Venezuelan President (dictator), has announced the Christmas holiday will be celebrated on the 1st of October, allowing Venezuelan citizens an early celebration in order to forget the troubles imposed on the nation by foes who are working against the socialist government. Maduro joins a well established line of totalitarian leadership who have historically moved or canceled religious holidays to manipulate the population.

5. Harris vs. Trump: A debate between the two candidates will take place this coming Tuesday on the 10th of September. Because of murky outlooks among many financial institutions, this televised ‘exchange of views’ will not only get the attention of U.S voters and an interested worldwide populace, but global investors as well. The last Presidential debate effectively ended Joe Biden’s hopes of being re-elected. Will this event proceed without biased moderators?

4. Wobbly High-Wire: WTI Crude Oil finished the week around 68.52 per barrel as traders appear to be worried about a U.S economic slowdown. Gold closed Friday near the 2,497.00 realm per ounce, as investors fret over the USD and Federal Reserve. BTC/USD is trading around 54,230 at the time of this writing, Bitcoin was valued around 65,000 early on the 26th of August. Cocoa closed near 8,300.00 USD per ton yesterday after flirting with lows touching 7,900.00 on Wednesday. Day traders trying to wager this past week within commodities likely found they were not immune to nervous sentiment.

3. Negative: U.S jobs data was bad. While some say the numbers were mixed the Non-Farm Employment Change came in significantly lower than its estimate, and the previous month’s statistics were revised downwards. The higher Average Hourly Earnings report provided no favors via its outcome of 0.4% compared to the expected result of 0.3%, it wasn’t too far from the estimate and should not change inflation perspectives. Simply put, the jobs numbers are causing concerns in many financial institutions who believe the Federal Reserve is being too cautious.

2. Nervous Investors: U.S equity indices finished yesterday’s trading at their lows for the week. In fact the Nasdaq 100, Dow 30 and S&P 500 are all traversing values they last saw on the 13th of August. The major indices are fragile. Equities on the 13th of August were still recovering from losses seen the week before when previous Fed and BoJ policy chaos triggered overreactive selling on the 5th of August. On Friday the 2nd of August negative Non-Farm Employment Change data was published. What will happen to indices, Forex and Treasury yields on Monday the 9th of September?

1. Fed Fail: John Williams the New York Federal Reserve President said after the jobs numbers were reported, that the Federal Funds Rate is in a position to be cut. However, Williams continued to lean into the widespread notion the Fed will only impose a 0.25% decrease. He did say he would look at the jobs numbers closely, but he believed the Fed is well positioned. Behavioral sentiment among financial institutions appeared to react poorly to Williams remarks, producing a strong selloff as Friday progressed. The dream of orchestrating a soft economic landing in the U.S by the Federal Reserve allowing inflation to erode, the jobs market to soften, and GDP to remain above recessionary pressure remains the lofty goal. However financial institutions do not like the convoluted mid-term economic outlook, they now want to hear a dovish sounding Federal Reserve and appear ready to cause more short-term chaos in the markets this coming week.

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Risk Analysis Review: Warning about Coronavirus in Feb. 2020

by with No Comment AssetsBehavioral SentimentCentral Banks

Risk Analysis Review: Warning about Coronavirus in Feb. 2020

Below is a risk analysis note written in February of 2020 regarding the risks and potential implications of coronavirus as seen by Robert Petrucci on financial markets. The letter was sent to a senior associate who was a Chief Investment Officer for a firm. After speaking to the senior associate on the phone, feeling as if his thoughts were dismissed without heed and told he was too concerned about coronavirus, Mr. Petrucci sent the following to the CIO:

Thanks for asking about my thoughts.

What worries me is the opportunity for the virus to be a catalyst. The reactions in the E.U by government talking heads reminds me a lot of the financial crisis in 2007 when people publicly disregarded the potential domino effect which was becoming apparent. 

The Coronavirus imo is a potential domino which could take down the remainder of a fragile architecture. Meaning the ill-conceived philosophy and work of central banks in Asia and Europe have left them with little regarding ammunition should they need to fire an economic gun. If Europe and Asia buckle the US will be left limping too.

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Psychologically the markets appear vulnerable, but as you rightly point out the higher realms of the Indices have been waiting for a bit of a sell off for a long time and the selling underway may be more of a reaction and mere trigger which has been long overdue. 

However, I wonder about the ‘clever’ algorithms which have been developed and trade also due to human bias. What concerns me more than what is taking place in China is what is happening in Italy right now. 

Italian governments have a long political history of ineptitude and disregard of reality regarding numbers which are staring them in the face, particularly with budgets and a long tradition of corruption and its destructive force on transparency. If Italy continues to spike higher infection numbers and continue to escalate then I believe the E.U is in for trouble. The inaction of Italy and its reliance on the tourism business will make it hard for them to accept shutting down major airports and cities which enjoy the fruits of international visitors year round. 

Also, I must add and circling back to China that it is not known yet if another outbreak may suddenly appear in another zone if someone dealing with this asymmetrical virus is unaware of their affliction. 

Which brings me back to the springboard, worst case scenario I fear is a major outbreak in the E.U including Germany. If we see signs of spikes statistically across Europe the next two weeks it will be devastating economically for the next quarter financially. 

As you say, things will certainly bounce back, they always do, we must look at the long term. Investors need to keep a stiff upper lip and protect themselves as you have done in many regards with Indices, US ten year bonds and some gold. 

The question for me now is what happens the next ten business days across the U.S and Europe and how the world handles this virus. Worst case is pandemic and bad Central Bank formula, which have been in place the past twelve years with cheap money. The desire to keep everything steady may in fact lead to miscalculations which have not been planned for and cause reactions in the markets which cannot be checked this time around. I do not believe we are at a Black Swan point yet, but it does worry me that the E.U politicians and even some U.S politicians seem to have their head in the sand or look like deer stuck in the headlights.

Robert Petrucci 26 Feb 2020

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Postings for the 5th of April 2024

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Postings for the 5th of April 2024

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10. Petrichor: The pleasant smell after a rain has fallen following a long dry spell which elicits earth’s fragrance. The Fed is likely hoping for this sensation via ‘weaker’ Non-Farm Employment Change numbers today. In December the Federal Reserve spoke about data signals needed in order to cut interest rates. If jobs statistics are stronger than anticipated, there will be no ‘petrichor’ for the Fed.

9. Underreported: Five engineers from China on their way to work for the Dasu dam project they participated, were killed in a ‘suicide’ terrorist attack in Pakistan on the 26th of March. Terror attacks in Pakistan on Chinese involved with infrastructure ‘Economic Corridor’ work have been increasing.

8. Qubits: Microsoft and Quantinuum recently announced they have made breakthroughs regarding quantum computing research reliability. Results have shown 14,000 ‘test routines’ without errors. The emergence of quantum technology approaches.

7. Intrinsic Value: Cocoa is near 9640.0 USD per metric ton as of this morning and remains speculatively energetic. Bitcoin is slightly below 67,000 USD and continues to ‘beat’ the notion that intrinsic value is important.

6. Precious: Gold prices have ‘fallen’ below 2300.00 USD per ounce, and is near 2289.00 for the moment, but the metal is shining as crowds admire its ability to create a safe haven.

5. WTI Crude Oil: Middle East news is rumbling and hyperbole is resonating, the price of the commodity is over 86.40 USD per this writing. A calm weekend, and peaceful end to Ramadan this coming Tuesday might help calm nerves. Higher oil prices will not help global inflation.

4. Forex: The USD/JPY has started to experience waves of volatility and has recently challenged long-term highs. Bottom line is the notion that large players are positioning for today’s U.S data which will affect all financial assets as USD centric power resounds.

3. Equities: The U.S major stock indices are beginning their day near lows not seen since the 15th of March for the Dow 30, and the 19th of March for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite. Nervous?

2. Bonds Watch: U.S Treasuries need to be monitored as the 5, 7, and 10-Years Notes respond to nervous investors and fears of a new ‘inversion’. Having come off of high yields a couple of days ago, doesn’t mean all is well as values languish near late September 2023 technical realms.

1. Data: Recent chatter from many Fed FOMC members have created anxious investors. Vivid reactions will occur after the Non-Farm Employment Change and Average Hourly Earnings. Bluntly, today’s jobs reports are crucial and the Fed would like the results to be weaker than anticipated in order to consider cutting interest rates. However, if hiring comes in stronger, it would be a sign of a resilient U.S economy and would ignite more USD strength. The first half hour following the jobs numbers may look counter-intuitive regarding price action as financial institutions adjust their trading positions.

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Spiders for the 1st of March 2024

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Spiders for the 1st of March 2024

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10. Palystes: Huntsman spiders known in South Africa as ‘rain spiders’ are nocturnal and visit indoors, sometimes causing horror for those stumbling through hallways in the middle of the night. But it is better than a baboon entering the house.

9. Victor Wembanyama: Last night’s stat line included 28 points, 13 rebounds, 5 blocks, 5 3pts made, 7 assists, 2 steals in less than 33 minutes played. The rookie is already one of the best NBA players. Btw, the Spurs beat the Thunder also.

8. Tech: Chinese cars are now in the crosshairs of U.S politicians who are worried the ‘smart’ vehicles can collect sensitive data from Americans.

7. Crypto: Bitcoin above 61,000.00 USD, Ethereum over 3,300.00, and Binance Coin testing 400.00 even as the company remains under U.S legal shadows. How much air can the balloons withstand?

6. Putin’s Nuclear Threats: In a world with escalating geo-political tension, the Russian leader remains determined and energetic while playing ‘war poker’ against Europe.

5. U.S Data: Core PCE Index numbers yesterday met expectations, but the previous month’s outcome was revised downwards. Today a Consumer Sentiment reading comes from the University of Michigan. This week’s U.S data has mostly been pleasantly ‘weaker’.

4. Central Banks: Fed ‘watchers’ are likely feeling more comfortable this morning regarding the possibility of a late spring ‘thaw’ in U.S interest rates. Jerome Powell will testify in front of the Senate next Thursday. The ECB will release their Monetary Policy Statement on the 7th of March also. Next FOMC pronouncements will be on the 20th of March.

3. Gold: The precious metal is near 2050.00 USD, this after yesterday’s U.S inflation report, gold could remain volatile today. Some speculators may be looking for additional value to develop.

2. Forex: FX has been a constant battle the past two months, but patient traders with mid-term perspectives may be anticipating their weaker USD targets to trend more steadily.

1. Equities: Many global stock indices are achieving record levels as bullish behavioral sentiment creates upwards momentum. S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and the Composite, Dow 30, Nikkei 225 and the DAX Index are flirting with higher values.

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Shivers for Friday the 13th of Oct

by with No Comment AMT MarketsAssetsFeatured Highlights

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Shivers for Friday the 13th of Oct

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10. Roseanne Roseannadanna: It just goes to show ya. It’s always something. If it’s not one thing, it’s another.

9: Book: Longitude: The True Story of a Lone Genius Who Solved the Greatest Scientific Problem of His Time by Dava Sobel.

8. World Cup Rugby: Ireland vs. New Zealand in a quarterfinal match on Saturday.

7. Crypto: Binance Coin slump continues as it edges towards 200.00 USD value.

6. Crude Oil: Price near 84.00 USD per barrel in a mixed week of trading.

5. Gold: Will stable price hold after increase via inflation data and stronger USD?

4. Indices: U.S stock markets declined yesterday, but not significantly in wake of inflation news.

3. USD: Burst of buying for USD took GBP, EUR and JPY and others back to lows.

2. CPI: Consumer Price Index rise yesterday was slight, but reinforced Fed policy.

1. U.S Treasuries: Bond yields a key barometer today and will affect broad markets.

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Morsels for Friday 22nd of Sept.

by with No Comment AMT MarketsAssetsFeatured Highlights

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Morsels for Friday 22nd of Sept.

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10. Rugby: World Cup match between South Africa and Ireland is tomorrow in Paris.

9. Book: Winning The Loser’s Game by Charles D. Ellis.

8. Travel Tip: Prague, if you haven’t had the chance to visit, do yourself a favor – go.

7. Cryptocurrencies: Binance Coin still ‘flirting’ with lower values and ‘troubles’.

6. European Central Bank: Surprise interest hike last week, but EUR/USD struggling.

5. Gold: Price of the precious metal facing tests as USD remains strong.

4. WTI Crude Oil: Energy price for the commodity remains near 90.00 USD.

3. Federal Reserve: U.S central bank was polite on Wednesday, but perhaps misguided.

2. Bank of England: Yesterday’s pause showed ‘backbone’, but GBP/USD suffering.

1. U.S Stock Indices: Friday’s trading will begin with 3 month lows being tested.

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Trading Tactics to Add to Your Risk Management Knowledge

by with No Comment Behavioral SentimentFeatured HighlightsRisk Analysis

Trading Tactics to Add to Your Risk Management Knowledge

Retail traders seeking quick speculative positions are not the masters of the financial world. Institutions which day traders are hoping to reflect are the real shakers of the markets. Understanding your actual place in the world of trading is crucial, accepting this point and putting ego to the side will create a better grasp of behavioral sentiment as you interpret combinations of fundamentals and technical perceptions and merge them into your risk taking.

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Making your decisions with the acknowledgement of your place in the trading world is important. Your 10,000.00, 50,000.00 and 100,000.00 USD value based positions are very small fish in a large ocean. Your trades are very unlikely to affect market direction in any meaningful manner. The more leverage you use makes your available ‘margin’ prone to failure.

Risk analysis is vital for day traders, guarding you money should be a fundamental aspect of your tactical decisions. Deep pockets are not luxuries most day traders have.

If you happen to have a solid amount of money to speculate with it will assist you, but you will still need to practice solid risk taking strategies.

Plenty of rich folks have lost all of their money trading, that isn’t written to make you feel better, it is written as a warning and highlights that speculating is dangerous when not done with a solid plan of action. Once a trade is placed your work than immediately doubles via responsibility, because you have ‘skin in the game’ and need to manage your emotions and thinking as the markets move.

Metallgesellschaft and Barings Bank are two prime examples of two institutional traders who made vital mistakes with risk management and lost everything in the 1990’s. Protecting cash reserves are vital for all. Metallgesellschaft and Barings did not supervise their traders and ‘hoped’ that all things would work out in the end, because they had the false notion institutionally that their capacity to hold onto positions that were not profitable would eventually turn into positive results. Their losing trades caused the destruction of their enterprises.

Most speculators by nature are optimists. After all day traders are gambling on the movement of assets they believe they have a correct perspective regarding future direction of value. In order to wager a trader needs to feel confident regarding their outlook, otherwise they would not pursue currency trading. The same can be said for equities and indices, commodities and all other financial assets. False hope can destroy the efforts of all traders and they must be alert to perspectives which can lead to detrimental results as they trade.

Too much leverage, no real insights about direction, and trading based on ‘noise’ that influences and causes you to make unwise decisions are dangers. It might be boring to constantly be told to be careful, a bit like a parent warning you when you were little to act in a certain way. Good risk management while day trading is vital for surviving and finding success.

Do not be stubborn. In trading no matter if it is Forex, CFDs with equities, indices, commodities or cryptocurrencies you should not ‘marry’ your position blindly. If your trading position begins to show signs of potentially failing and you have concluded you are wrong – end the trade asap.

However, at the same time do not make your decisions based on emotions which may create whipsaw reactions regarding your choices. Having solid goals before going into a trade will help you eliminate emotional stress.

Have price targets and a strategy for getting in and out of trades. If the trade is going in your direction, then protect your profits by either cashing out of the trade, or raising your stop loss to a place that you are actually still going to make money. Some trading platforms may allow you to raise your stop losses – this is called a ‘trailing stop’. If you are lucky enough to catch a trend at the correct time and it is being sustained, using a ‘trailing stop’ is a solid risk management tactic and can protect your profits.

If the trend in your position starts to reverse against you, do not cancel your ‘trailing stop’ because you think the reversal is a momentary cycle. Trading floors are littered by people who had substantial gains and then watched them vanish, all because they thought the market would reverse in their chosen direction again. Folks dream about owning a castle when all they need is a comfortable home. Cancelling stop loss orders is a sure way to the poor house.

Immodest ambitions can ruin your trades when you become stubborn, unrealistic and emotional. Make sure you stay ‘grounded’ and are pursuing trades because you believe in them, and not because you are looking for price action to fill up a boring day with wagers than make no sense.