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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Spiders for the 1st of March 2024

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Spiders for the 1st of March 2024

10. Palystes: Huntsman spiders known in South Africa as ‘rain spiders’ are nocturnal and visit indoors, sometimes causing horror for those stumbling through hallways in the middle of the night. But it is better than a baboon entering the house.

9. Victor Wembanyama: Last night’s stat line included 28 points, 13 rebounds, 5 blocks, 5 3pts made, 7 assists, 2 steals in less than 33 minutes played. The rookie is already one of the best NBA players. Btw, the Spurs beat the Thunder also.

8. Tech: Chinese cars are now in the crosshairs of U.S politicians who are worried the ‘smart’ vehicles can collect sensitive data from Americans.

7. Crypto: Bitcoin above 61,000.00 USD, Ethereum over 3,300.00, and Binance Coin testing 400.00 even as the company remains under U.S legal shadows. How much air can the balloons withstand?

6. Putin’s Nuclear Threats: In a world with escalating geo-political tension, the Russian leader remains determined and energetic while playing ‘war poker’ against Europe.

5. U.S Data: Core PCE Index numbers yesterday met expectations, but the previous month’s outcome was revised downwards. Today a Consumer Sentiment reading comes from the University of Michigan. This week’s U.S data has mostly been pleasantly ‘weaker’.

4. Central Banks: Fed ‘watchers’ are likely feeling more comfortable this morning regarding the possibility of a late spring ‘thaw’ in U.S interest rates. Jerome Powell will testify in front of the Senate next Thursday. The ECB will release their Monetary Policy Statement on the 7th of March also. Next FOMC pronouncements will be on the 20th of March.

3. Gold: The precious metal is near 2050.00 USD, this after yesterday’s U.S inflation report, gold could remain volatile today. Some speculators may be looking for additional value to develop.

2. Forex: FX has been a constant battle the past two months, but patient traders with mid-term perspectives may be anticipating their weaker USD targets to trend more steadily.

1. Equities: Many global stock indices are achieving record levels as bullish behavioral sentiment creates upwards momentum. S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and the Composite, Dow 30, Nikkei 225 and the DAX Index are flirting with higher values.

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Shivers for Friday the 13th of Oct

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Shivers for Friday the 13th of Oct

10. Roseanne Roseannadanna: It just goes to show ya. It’s always something. If it’s not one thing, it’s another.

9: Book: Longitude: The True Story of a Lone Genius Who Solved the Greatest Scientific Problem of His Time by Dava Sobel.

8. World Cup Rugby: Ireland vs. New Zealand in a quarterfinal match on Saturday.

7. Crypto: Binance Coin slump continues as it edges towards 200.00 USD value.

6. Crude Oil: Price near 84.00 USD per barrel in a mixed week of trading.

5. Gold: Will stable price hold after increase via inflation data and stronger USD?

4. Indices: U.S stock markets declined yesterday, but not significantly in wake of inflation news.

3. USD: Burst of buying for USD took GBP, EUR and JPY and others back to lows.

2. CPI: Consumer Price Index rise yesterday was slight, but reinforced Fed policy.

1. U.S Treasuries: Bond yields a key barometer today and will affect broad markets.

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Morsels for Friday 22nd of Sept.

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Morsels for Friday 22nd of Sept.

10. Rugby: World Cup match between South Africa and Ireland is tomorrow in Paris.

9. Book: Winning The Loser’s Game by Charles D. Ellis.

8. Travel Tip: Prague, if you haven’t had the chance to visit, do yourself a favor – go.

7. Cryptocurrencies: Binance Coin still ‘flirting’ with lower values and ‘troubles’.

6. European Central Bank: Surprise interest hike last week, but EUR/USD struggling.

5. Gold: Price of the precious metal facing tests as USD remains strong.

4. WTI Crude Oil: Energy price for the commodity remains near 90.00 USD.

3. Federal Reserve: U.S central bank was polite on Wednesday, but perhaps misguided.

2. Bank of England: Yesterday’s pause showed ‘backbone’, but GBP/USD suffering.

1. U.S Stock Indices: Friday’s trading will begin with 3 month lows being tested.

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Trading Tactics to Add to Your Risk Management Knowledge

Trading Tactics to Add to Your Risk Management Knowledge

Retail traders seeking quick speculative positions are not the masters of the financial world. Institutions which day traders are hoping to reflect are the real shakers of the markets. Understanding your actual place in the world of trading is crucial, accepting this point and putting ego to the side will create a better grasp of behavioral sentiment as you interpret combinations of fundamentals and technical perceptions and merge them into your risk taking.

Making your decisions with the acknowledgement of your place in the trading world is important. Your 10,000.00, 50,000.00 and 100,000.00 USD value based positions are very small fish in a large ocean. Your trades are very unlikely to affect market direction in any meaningful manner. The more leverage you use makes your available ‘margin’ prone to failure.

Risk analysis is vital for day traders, guarding you money should be a fundamental aspect of your tactical decisions. Deep pockets are not luxuries most day traders have.

If you happen to have a solid amount of money to speculate with it will assist you, but you will still need to practice solid risk taking strategies.

Plenty of rich folks have lost all of their money trading, that isn’t written to make you feel better, it is written as a warning and highlights that speculating is dangerous when not done with a solid plan of action. Once a trade is placed your work than immediately doubles via responsibility, because you have ‘skin in the game’ and need to manage your emotions and thinking as the markets move.

Metallgesellschaft and Barings Bank are two prime examples of two institutional traders who made vital mistakes with risk management and lost everything in the 1990’s. Protecting cash reserves are vital for all. Metallgesellschaft and Barings did not supervise their traders and ‘hoped’ that all things would work out in the end, because they had the false notion institutionally that their capacity to hold onto positions that were not profitable would eventually turn into positive results. Their losing trades caused the destruction of their enterprises.

Most speculators by nature are optimists. After all day traders are gambling on the movement of assets they believe they have a correct perspective regarding future direction of value. In order to wager a trader needs to feel confident regarding their outlook, otherwise they would not pursue currency trading. The same can be said for equities and indices, commodities and all other financial assets. False hope can destroy the efforts of all traders and they must be alert to perspectives which can lead to detrimental results as they trade.

Too much leverage, no real insights about direction, and trading based on ‘noise’ that influences and causes you to make unwise decisions are dangers. It might be boring to constantly be told to be careful, a bit like a parent warning you when you were little to act in a certain way. Good risk management while day trading is vital for surviving and finding success.

Do not be stubborn. In trading no matter if it is Forex, CFDs with equities, indices, commodities or cryptocurrencies you should not ‘marry’ your position blindly. If your trading position begins to show signs of potentially failing and you have concluded you are wrong – end the trade asap.

However, at the same time do not make your decisions based on emotions which may create whipsaw reactions regarding your choices. Having solid goals before going into a trade will help you eliminate emotional stress.

Have price targets and a strategy for getting in and out of trades. If the trade is going in your direction, then protect your profits by either cashing out of the trade, or raising your stop loss to a place that you are actually still going to make money. Some trading platforms may allow you to raise your stop losses – this is called a ‘trailing stop’. If you are lucky enough to catch a trend at the correct time and it is being sustained, using a ‘trailing stop’ is a solid risk management tactic and can protect your profits.

If the trend in your position starts to reverse against you, do not cancel your ‘trailing stop’ because you think the reversal is a momentary cycle. Trading floors are littered by people who had substantial gains and then watched them vanish, all because they thought the market would reverse in their chosen direction again. Folks dream about owning a castle when all they need is a comfortable home. Cancelling stop loss orders is a sure way to the poor house.

Immodest ambitions can ruin your trades when you become stubborn, unrealistic and emotional. Make sure you stay ‘grounded’ and are pursuing trades because you believe in them, and not because you are looking for price action to fill up a boring day with wagers than make no sense.

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Absurd Friday Forex Results? Suspicions as the Week Begins

Absurd Friday Forex Results? Suspicions as the Week Begins

This coming week may be an opportunity where speculators can test their conspiracy thinking, perceptions of technical and fundamentals in unison. Experienced traders who typically have a high degree of skepticism about markets (particularly when results don’t go in the direction they expected) may question late last week’s results.

EUR/USD 5 Day Chart as of 3rd of Sept. 2023

Without trumpets or too much hyperbole, was Friday before going into the weekend a ‘false flag’, this as the USD gained strength against many other major currencies. A lack of volume because of the Labor Day holiday coming in the U.S and Canada tomorrow may have affected the Forex landscape. While trading is largely done by computer programs in financial institutions, day traders should understand last Friday worked as a get away day to enjoy a long holiday weekend in North America.

Meaning financial executives largely escaped their offices because they have seniority and the ability to disappear while their ‘underlings mind the store’. Essentially senior management often tells the staff that has to stay behind, “monitor and not touch the system”. This could have left the door open for what appears to be a strange reaction in Forex upon what was in fact weaker data on Friday from the U.S via the Average Hourly Earnings which came in slightly below expectations, and less than stellar U.S GDP results on Wednesday the 30th of August.

Yes, also this past Friday the Non-Farm Employment Change numbers were fractionally better this month than anticipated, but the prior month’s results were actually revised downward. And yet the USD remained strong. Is this because senior analysts, chief traders and risk management officers were absent on Friday?

Tomorrow the same folks will remain largely away from the markets too, meaning results should also be viewed with suspicion. Which sets the table for an intriguing Tuesday and Wednesday for all the major and minor currency pairs teamed against the USD. Gold and equity markets will need to be monitored closely too.

Gold Cash Price Five Day Chart as of 3rd Sept. 2023

Some potential clues are that the price of gold stumbled slightly on Friday as the weekend approached, but this happened as the EUR/USD sank to a low for the week, and the GBP/USD came under renewed pressure. But again this happened in rather questionable circumstances. Important support levels technically may get tested tomorrow, but trading volumes should be examined. Gold in many respects held onto gains made earlier in the week.

Yes, there are reasons to be nervous in financial institutions, due to higher short-term U.S Treasury yields, concerns about the China economy, mortgage rate worries in the U.S and elsewhere, fears about credit availability for small U.S businesses. However, these troubles have not caused a massive meltdown in the most primal of trading venues yet – major stock indices.

September is a notoriously volatile month for equities and speculators who use CFDs to participate in the stock markets globally need to be careful. Correct, some well known ‘traders’ are talking about a coming selloff in the markets, but so far we have not seen a major decline in the NASDAQ, S&P 500 or Dow Jones 30 indices. Day traders should not and cannot underestimate the potential for volatility to occur suddenly. Successful speculative bets via limited funds often means having to practice patience and risk management.

Thus, as the week begins early this Monday, day traders should be careful. Please note that a lack of big trading volumes because of the absence of U.S and Canadian financial institutions will make tomorrow’s results questionable. Opening the door for the potential of reversals on Tuesday, which might be abrupt as a ‘re-balancing’ of sorts takes place as folks returning to their offices seek equilibrium perhaps with their adjusted outlooks.

Simply put the U.S Federal Reserve the past two weeks has seen the same lackluster U.S data as all global traders, and the U.S central bank is in no position to raise interest rates over the mid-term. It would be useful if the Fed voiced their insights regarding the weaker than expected U.S Gross Domestic Product results last week, and the lower than expected Average Hourly Earnings report seen before the weekend. However, do not count on the Federal Reserve to do the right thing.

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Day and Institutional Traders Suffering Nervous Conditions

Day and Institutional Traders Suffering Nervous Conditions

Market price action has caused quite a few interesting interpretations of the prices being demonstrated in Forex, gold and equity markets recently. The USD/INR is now at record heights, the USD/ZAR is back above 19.00000 and the USD/BRL is again near the 5.0000 ratio.

USD/INR One Month Chart as of 16th August 2023

While Forex traders around the world look for clues as to why their local currencies are suffering and are likely blaming domestic policy from their own governments and central banks, they should remember the larger global financial markets tend to move in a unified sphere. Domestic concerns are a real cause for market action often, but when global sentiment becomes nervous the larger force of institutional financial houses shake the ground.

Correlations exists worldwide because of behavioral sentiment ruling outlooks over the near, mid and long-term in the marketplace. While we like to put our faith in the financial markets as an all knowing entity, this is far from the truth. Humans who react to nervous conditions and also have bias are the ones still making decisions in financial houses, they are the ones giving orders to their programmers via their trading software which is largely geared to follow perceived trends these institutions deem important.

USD/ZAR One Month Chart as of 16th August 2023

Most financial institutions are not speculative in nature, day and even longer term retail traders should remember this point. Most institutions are trying very hard not to ‘speculate’, they are simply positioning per their outlooks based on their understanding of the trading landscape. Whispers of potential downgrades from U.S rating agencies on larger corporate banks yesterday sent a shudder through the broad markets, economic data and rumors swirling about China are not helping either. The current volatility in the broad markets is not welcomed warmly by financial institutions.

When price velocity accelerates and volatility flourishes in highly charged trading situations, this suggests financial institutions are nervous and not able to find comfortable positions. Conflicting ‘opposite’ positions from other larger players are causing market chaos in Forex, equities and other financial assets. There is a herd mentality in trading and when the herd doesn’t march in an unified direction chaos happens.

Most institutional players want calm, they want tranquil trading conditions so they can manage their clients’ money quietly. Bonds, equities and indices, real estate holdings via REITs, and gold make up a large part of their holdings.

Most U.S pension funds for instance have mandates to be positioned into a large amount of quiet investment vehicles which do not trade with wild price ranges. They seek steady returns from their institutional investors that can be counted on in a quantitative manner to demonstrate to their clients.

Large financial institutions are allowed sometimes to trade 2 to 4% of their holdings in different categories of speculative investments – such as start-ups, allocate cash to hedge funds they trust, small cap stocks they might know about, etc., depending on the exact mandates agreed upon.

Yes, hedge fund managers like Bill Ackman and investor Michael Burry get a lot of attention when they bet against the markets, but believe it or not they are small fish in a large ocean a lot of the time. They are good at what they do, but their speculative positions cannot be mirrored by most financial institutions or small day traders.

Ackman and Burry may be trading billions, but remember institutional financial companies including pension funds when combined total approximately 80% of market cap. Institutional trading decisions can cause massive waves in the financial world, but they actually seek calm seas.

When markets become volatile this often means institutional traders are not comfortable and their behavioral sentiment is fragile. Forex for example is often affected by financial institutions moving money as they handle export and import transactions for companies, but transactions are often done to buy and sell equities too. The Bank of International Settlements estimated an average around 7.5 trillion USD in value was traded in Forex everyday in 2022.

Day traders should not take it personally when the markets move against them, instead they should look to try and mirror the sentiment of larger financial movers. However, knowing and timing financial institution decisions is elusive because short term compared to long term considerations are often different.

Most traders are merely betting on the price action the large institutional funds are undertaking via the direction of the marketplace. Day trading for most retail speculators remains dangerous. A solid fundamental understanding of market ‘forces’ can allow smaller traders to feel more comfortable.

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Nervous Contradictory Trading Winds for Behavioral Sentiment

Nervous Contradictory Trading Winds for Behavioral Sentiment

Behavioral sentiment in the broad financial markets is nervous, and mixed results in the major asset classes are likely causing retail traders to feel uneasy. Most day traders try to perceive which direction they should lean based on price momentum while looking for fast profits. The current state of the broad markets are making decisions difficult for retail traders.

A healthy dose of nervousness at this moment might be a good thing for speculators and keep them conservative. Swirling results in Forex and commodities are causing plenty of problems for traders who instinctively like to pursue buying positions because of the human tendency to be optimistic.

Federal Reserve Causing Headaches for Smaller Banks and Forex

Forex markets have been choppy since the beginning of February 2023, when the U.S Federal Reserve surprised many people with continued aggressive rhetoric. The U.S central bank has backed up its ‘tough’ talk as it ‘fights’ inflation with more interest rate hikes. Clarity regarding a potential June hike from the Fed remains problematic with no certain answer yet. For the moment there seems to be a belief there will be a genuine pause, which may be fueling better returns for U.S equity indices, but there are no guarantees. Behavioral sentiment remains fragile.

The detrimental effect from higher interest rates on mid and small size banks in the U.S remains harmful. Mid and smaller corporate banks continue to struggle with the increased Federal Funds Rate. Bad business decisions within these banks have made it difficult to make profits in an environment when money is no longer ‘free’, this as many of their depositors look for better returns.

A six month chart of the EUR/USD below shows how the EUR started to climb in the fall of 2022, but then began to run into headwinds when financial institutions started to reconsider the seriousness of U.S Federal Reserve policy earlier this year. Analysis regarding the timing of the Federal Funds Rate forecast to actually start becoming dovish has proven problematic.

While the EUR/USD still maintains plenty of its gains, the current price of the the currency pair is below early February highs. The EUR/USD was trading near 0.95700 in late September of 2022, and the price as of today near 1.07800 is a vast improvement for the EUR. However, the choppiness of the Forex market the past few months has not been easy for day traders who have suffered from sudden reversals frequently in many of the major currency pairs.

EUR/USD Six Month Chart as of 19th May 2023

The KRE regional bank index below shows the dramatic drop in value of the mid and small size banks in the U.S the past year, and the sector certainly still has financial concerns and shadows which are causing pressure on their corporate share values. Stubborn inflation remains and the desire of the U.S Federal Reserve to attack rising costs with higher interest rates remains a serious concern.

KRE Regional Banking Index One Year Chart as of 19th May 2023

Stock Markets Suddenly at One Year Highs as Investors Seem to Return

Is the S&P 500 a harbinger of things to come or are investors in the index being too optimistic? Day traders likely stay away from the S&P 500 many times because they are mostly trading the index via CFD’s and this can prove expensive regarding transactions, they are not long-term investors – meaning they do not like to make bets that take awhile to materialize. The results from the past year and a half in the stock markets have made speculators nervous regarding bets on equities.

However, institutions and long-term investors buy and hold the S&P with a vision towards the future; they also reap the rewards of its dividends. The ability of the S&P to be trading at nearly one year highs is curious. The improvement in equity values in the indices may be a sign that ‘smart money’ continues to invest in the stock market for the long-term, even during what is perceived as a fragile period of behavioral sentiment. Financial institutions may also be betting on the U.S Federal Reserve having to become more dovish regarding interest rate policy in June and looking forward.

S&P 500 Index One Year Chart as of 19th May 2023

Results on the NASDAQ 100 may be surprising to many and the index is trading at one year highs, and though like the S&P it is still under all-time highs from late 2021 and early 2022, investors have shown a taste for investing in the ‘hi-tech’ index again. While this may contradict the behavioral sentiment of Forex and the results in the mid and small size banking sector, the NASDAQ 100 does point out money is still being invested and might be an indication that day traders need to be more patient, more optimistic about the coming months and year.

While a recession might be looming, large companies have started to lay off workers and scale back on bonuses in an effort to fight against reduced profits. The narrative from the media may be negative in many cases, but many long-term investors tend to look at more conservative fiscal policy in companies as a good practice and a sign they should invest.

Perhaps the market is going through a needed case of the jitters and the U.S indices are showing that brighter days are ahead, even if there are storm clouds that still must be dealt with regarding inflation and possible recession.The long-term horizon tends to always be more optimistic. Day traders may not be able to take advantage of quick hitting trades, but what about changing perspective and looking for more patient results by being more conservative as a speculator? Or maybe investors in the stock market are wrong and another violent selling surge will return into equities, but what if it doesn’t.

NASDAQ 100 Index Five Year Chart as of 19th May 2023

There is a fear among mid-size brokers that trading volumes in many sectors are dropping. Showing cautious investor sentiment on the retail front – which may be a healthy reaction in many respects because it is hard to read momentum right now. Day traders tend to get killed by the daily gyrations of Forex and equities in choppy markets because they are using too much leverage. However, historically when retail traders have turned cautious, this is when institutional trading houses have tended to do remarkably well. Investment houses can take on more risks in markets that are perceived as nervous and fragile, because they have a longer time horizon and more cash to absorb momentary losses.

Commodity prices are also intriguing because after hitting highs nearly one year ago in May and June of 2022, the ratios of many broad commodity indices have come down and values are traversing near late 2021 levels. Which brings us to the consideration that global demand for physical resources are limited because corporations are not making large purchases of commodities, this as they wait on better manufacturing demand for their products. This may appear contradictory and create nervous behavioral sentiment for traders, but cautious business practices are a way to make sure there is enough money for the future when conditions turn optimistic again.

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Gut Feeling about Fed June Hike, Perhaps Wrong

Gut Feeling about Fed June Hike, Perhaps Wrong

I have a distinct feeling the U.S Federal Reserve is going to suggest via their FOMC Statement tomorrow that another increase of the Federal Funds Rate is likely going to happen in June. I could definitely be wrong, but my gut instinct is rumbling.

Inflation Remains a Sincere Problem Per the Fed’s Thinking

Wage data demonstrated last Friday via U.S Personal Income that inflation remains stronger than expected. Yesterday’s ISM Manufacturing Prices reading also spiked to 53.2 versus the expectation of only 49.4. The increases shown within these economic reports will not please the Federal Reserve.

While a hike tomorrow is nearly a certainty, the Forex market remains rather unimpressed with the potential for an increase on the 14th of June. Behavioral sentiment has shown a rather polite USD actually losing momentum the past few days. Caution has seeped into the USD today, but are financial institutions too relaxed regarding a potential hike by the Fed in June?

USD/AUD 5 Day Chart as of the 2nd May 2023

Reserve Bank of Australia’s Hike Earlier Today Caught Many Folks Unready

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s hike today, may be another sign the U.S Fed will not only hike tomorrow, but in June as well. What are the chances the Federal Reserve hinted strongly to the RBA, that if they wanted to protect the value of the AUD that an increase would be justified in order to guard against the Fed’s rhetoric to come? The Australian hike caught a lot of financial houses and day traders unprepared as the USD/AUD spiked lower this morning, for proof of the surprise simply look at the gap created downward today on the five day chart of the currency pair.

The RBA hiked their Cash Rate by 0.25% from 3.60% to 3.85% while sighting stubborn inflation as a main cause. Nothing is certain, but if the Federal Reserve’s FOMC Statement is rather strong tomorrow and says it will still consider a June increase perhaps we should not be shocked. Central banks do share information with one another.

Early February’s Rhetoric from the Fed wasn’t Treated Seriously at First Glance

Coincidentally, the Fed’s increase in early February was two days before the Non-Farm Employment Change and Average Hourly Earnings were reported on the 3rd of February. On the 1st of February the Federal Reserve warned that inflation remained stubborn, but the market didn’t take their words too seriously as the USD traded rather politely following the anticipated interest rate hike.

However, the USD gained violently the day after when Fed officials began to reiterate the strong tone from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell from the day before. And then stronger than expected jobs numbers followed on Friday. Note, that the Non-Farm Employment Change and Average Hourly Earnings will be published this coming Friday.

The Federal Reserve remains in a difficult position, a hike tomorrow will bring the Federal Funds Rate up to 5.25%, a June hike may not be welcomed by the broad financial markets, particularly equities in the near-term, but people may want to consider the possibility of it happening. Day traders should brace for strong price velocity developing. Tomorrow’s Forex action will be violent for speculators who are not ready, and if the Fed suggests a potential hike to 5.50% in June perhaps we should not be stunned.

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U.S Inflation Data Ready to Rattle Markets and Traders

U.S Inflation Data Ready to Rattle Markets and Traders

Another Day to Prove some of us are Fools

The U.S will publish its PPI data in a few hours time. The outlooks from many experts regarding the Federal Reserve have been rather suspicious when contemplating the U.S central bank. However, the results of the Non-Farm Employment Change numbers on the 3rd of February, and this Tuesday’s rather stubborn Consumer Price Index reports have created doubt among the ‘experts’.

  • Forex and equities and their related indices will react to the publication of the Producer Price Index statistics today and create price velocity that day traders may find dangerous.

  • On the surface it appears many Forex pairs have begun to search for a calm middle ground leading up to the release of the PPI report. Perhaps positions are on hold until the release of the inflation data.

  • Traders should not be tempted and get stuck in tranquil waters that could turn into seas that drown their victims later.

Day traders who choose to wager before the reports are published today are essentially gambling with their money unless they have direct knowledge regarding today’s outcome. The rather comfortable mid-term bearish trend in the USD against most major currencies has been stopped cold since the 3rd of February.

GBP/USD Five Day Chart

Outlook regarding the U.S Federal Reserve has gone from scorn and mockery and become a rather more sedated acknowledgement that inflation is rather robust. Today’s PPI numbers will provide evidence and clarity. If the number via the Producer Price Index is stronger than anticipated it will certainly create a foundation for the ‘promised’ 0.25% rate hike in March, but also set the road for more hikes to potentially come.

Questions remain loud. The better than expected jobs numbers a couple of weeks ago was a cumbersome development for financial houses paying attention to recent layoffs from top companies and betting on weaker data. When hiring proved to be stronger than anticipated it could be pointed out that the employment numbers were looking backwards and not forward. Yet, the strong Retail Sales numbers and the improving Empire State Manufacturing reading yesterday are signs the U.S economy remains in a better place than forecasted. Recession may not be around corner.

Day traders need to be cautious and the ‘experts’ may want to look for their safe places today.

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Central Bank Capitulation led by Federal Reserve

Central Bank Capitulation led by Federal Reserve

The 21st and 22nd of September were potentially important signals for traders as the Federal Reserve admitted they remain reactive to inflationary pressures, and other global central banks countered with acts of their own.

While it is difficult and often foolish to believe the markets can be timed, this past Wednesday may have been an important moment for speculators in Forex. Many traders may have veered off into cryptocurrencies or into equities as day traders the past few years, but FX still remains a place that offers volatility and where wagers on price direction can be made.

The Federal Reserve raised their interest rate 0.75% again, and importantly issued a loud admission that the U.S central bank is caught in a reactionary mode. Other global central banks have begun to protect their own currencies too. Jerome Powell, the U.S Federal Reserve Chairman, said he believes the current interest rate is likely at the low end of the spectrum regarding where it has to be to have an affect on current inflationary pressures.

The USD has been strong against many major currencies with a rather unforgiving bullish trend. Raising the Federal Funds rate from 0.25% to 3.25% the past year in the U.S has made short term purchases of U.S debt attractive to many financial institutions. On Wednesday, Jerome Powell made it clear other hikes will be delivered and it is not farfetched to believe the U.S is looking at a potential rate of 4.50% and higher in the spring of 2023. This doesn’t mean the Fed’s policy is correct, it is simply an outlook for the potential Federal Funds Rate based on rhetoric.

  • A Federal Funds Rate in the U.S of 4.00% is likely by early this winter, per the Federal Reserve’s interest rate outlook.

  • Global central banks have reacted to the U.S Fed’s recent interest rate hike, by enacting methods to try and safeguard the value of their own domestic currencies.

The USD surged ahead slightly before the rate announcement from the Fed, while many other currencies lost value. However, on Thursday the Bank of Japan intervened by starting to buy Japanese Yen against the USD. The Bank of Japan said it will not raise interest rates yet, but its action showed it clearly does not want the JPY to lose additional value to the USD, via the USD/JPY Forex pair. Whether the BoJ’s actions work mid-term remain to be seen.

Global Central Banks feel they must counter the U.S Federal Reserve’s Actions

Other central banks started to act too. The Bank of England and Swiss central bank both raised interest rates yesterday. Speculators who have been watching the USD dominate Forex the past year, may now have to consider that the last two day’s of action via global central banks is a signal an attitude change has taken place, which may begin to affect Forex long term. Traders need to understand opportunity also means there are risks.

Inflation remains high and governments have reached a point where they have had to admit they will have to risk slowing their economies and potentially suffer recessionary pressures to curb price increases. Many central banks likely feel they have to match the hike increases by the U.S Federal Reserve within their own systems to protect the value of their currencies.

BoJ Intervention on the 22nd of September

End of the Dominant USD Bullish Cycle in Forex?

While Japan for the moment refuses to raise borrowing rates, the BoJ’s buying of JPY effectively signals the USD has become too strong and is starting to hurt the Japanese economy. The the Bank of Japan will be interesting to study long term, to quantify if Japan’s lack of raising rates proves to actually be correct in the current environment.

Philosophical differences and central bank maneuvering is complex and has a long history of debate. Having said that the Bank of Japan has been largely scorned by many other central banks the past three decades for its methods, but while Japan has never recaptured the growth numbers it attained in the 1970’s and 1980’s, the nation remains one of the world’s richest.

The action of the BoJ and other global central banks means that speculators may want begin to look at Forex and tinker with the notion that the bullish trend of a dominant USD may start coming to an end. The cycle has been strong and again, it is difficult to say today is the day. Timing the market is often proven wrong, but the messaging from global central banks that they will start to shadow and react to the U.S Federal Reserve’s actions may mean that they will try to curtail the decreasing values of their own domestic currencies with more robust methods.

Day Traders need to understand a Complex Puzzle is Ahead

Forex markets can produce dramatic changes of value abruptly and cause costly losses to traders who bet wildly. The use of too much leverage and a lack of efficient risk management frequently destroys value quickly. However, now may be the time to contemplate testing Forex with the notion the USD may start to incrementally loss value. A lot has to happen. There are plenty of risk events ahead which could lead to wildly unforeseen results. In other words there are no guarantees.

Global equities led by the U.S indices appear very fragile and if the major stocks loss more value, this could also cause a stronger USD. Why? Because the USD would have to be purchased to buy U.S stocks by foreign investors who want a safe heaven. While it may seem contradictory to think U.S equities would be bought in downturns, this is what has historically happened when global financial institutions seek safe havens and believe other places are too dangerous to invest.

Remember financial institutions are not supposed to be day traders, they are supposed to be long term investment vehicles. Meaning if global equities suffer, even if U.S indices suffer too, the U.S is likely to remain the choice of investment houses as the place to seek shelter if they have to purchase equities as part of their mandates.

Yes, Forex will always be a complex puzzle for short term traders seeking to take advantage of the daily gyrations in the global markets. If a speculator insists on participating with wagers in the market place, they must consider that financial storms are always brewing because trading is seldom easy.

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Escalation of Rhetoric doesn’t create Calm Investors

Escalation of Rhetoric doesn't create Calm Investors

Putin and U.S Federal Reserve will Stir U.S Markets Today

An escalation of rhetoric via Russian President Vladimir Putin regarding his nation’s war with Ukraine took place this morning via a televised address to the Russian people. Putin has said Russia will call upon those with previous military training, and use a ‘limited’ call up of potential new troops. A claim of nearly 300,000 additional soldiers to be readied has been made by senior Russian officials shortly after Putin’s speech.

Making matters more intense, Putin said all military options are possible while Russia protects its sovereign territory. The land he was speaking about however, is not recognized Russian territory, it is Ukrainian soil. Putin’s ‘talk’ to Russia has firmly put him in a position which shows that results from the Ukrainian war have not had favorable results and that he is showing signs of frustration. An anxious Vladimir Putin is not about to calm down what are already nervous global markets.

China Urges a De-escalation in Ukraine while not naming Russia

China has already reacted to Putin’s speech by urging all sides active in the Ukrainian conflict to de-escalate the situation. China has its own economic worries presently and certainly doesn’t need another bad ingredient thrown into its midst as it deals with weaker demand for export products and a shaky real estate market as the global economy reacts to inflation and recessionary concerns.

International traders will hardly hear what China had to say today, not because it isn’t important, but because their attention will be on Putin and the U.S Federal Reserve. However, it is important to point out China did not condemn Russia, instead it asked that all sides involved in the Ukrainian sphere to lessen the dangers. China and its relationship with Russia remains an important aspect of global politics.

The U.S Federal Reserve will raise Interest Rates Today

The U.S Fed will raise its interest rate by 0.75% today according to most financial houses which have already acted accordingly within Forex per interpreted price action. The USD has made new long term highs within the USD/ZAR and the USD/CAD. The EUR is below par as of this writing against the USD, and the JPY and GBP also continue to struggle near long term lows versus the USD.

USD/CAD One Month Chart

U.S equity indices which have been struggling are not showing a massive promise of a reversal upwards which will alleviate losses seen this year. Investors need to remain patient if they are invested in indices such as the S&P 500. Day traders looking to profit from the volatility ripping through the markets will continue to be challenged by choppy conditions, difficult perceptions of short term technical charts and a lack of positive behavioral sentiment among the larger players in the marketplace who actually drive the markets most of the time.

  • USD remains stronger against many major and emerging market currencies, day traders need to be very careful if they pursue Forex positions in the short term.

  • U.S equity indices traded lower yesterday, and if the Federal Reserve falters and doesn’t offer solid clarity regarding interest rates today, this could create more nervousness.

Optimism is not being heard far and wide. While it is always interesting to be a contrarian and sometimes the correct avenue to engage thinking, the notion that upwards trajectories will suddenly occur may be wishful thinking in the near and mid term. Many asset classes are under stress.

Today’s upcoming pronouncements from the Fed will be important for institutional investors as they try to gauge the U.S central bank’s outlook until early 2023. If the Fed gives clues they will remain hawkish into the winter and a Funds rate around 4.50 to 5.00%is a possibility, this could shake investors and cause more capitulation – meaning a stronger selloff via equity indices could ensue. Short term traders will need to be prepared for violent conditions if they are day traders of stocks or CFDs. The inverted U.S bond yields remains a sign investors are seeking short and mid-term safety via interest rates to preserve money.

The fact that most traders are typically buyers first, not sellers first makes trading in bear markets difficult. Psychologically humans want to be optimistic. Today’s speech by Vladimir Putin while it doesn’t change the conditions on the ground in the Ukraine immediately, will shake the confidence of some financial houses which may have become accustomed to a ‘polite war’ they could ‘forget’ about and make believe would not get loud again. Nervous behavior is likely to be seen later today as early risers in the States awake to the news of Putin’s speech and react.

In short global markets will be dynamic today and tomorrow, as financial houses position their portfolios according to their foresight regarding developments the next few months. Day traders are urged to be cautious, and the prospect of sitting on the sidelines and watching ‘the show’ may prove to be a solid choice.