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Emotional and Speculative Market Could Spark Trouble

by with No Comment Behavioral SentimentFeatured HighlightsInvestingRisk ManagementSpeculators

Day Trading Problems: Not Everyday Produces a Profitable Outcome

Early indications show that U.S markets will produce volatility today. The EUR/USD is straddling the 1.19000 level, Gold is around $5005.00. Bitcoin for those that care is near 68,700.00 USD.

Cactus flower 20260121

Flowering Cactus

Not everyday produces profits. That is rather easily dealt with by large speculators, big players and financial institutions who have the time and money to withstand short and near-term storms. The current markets represent danger if you listen to the noise from outside sources – media, analysts and influencers engaged in trying to create opinions a lot of the time. However, bias must be distinguished and another very fundamental thing needs to be accessed.

Day trading is not the same as being a large speculator, big player or financial institution. Day trading usually means a person is a retail trader, a client therefore of a brokerage house. Day traders do not typically have deep pockets.

Getting caught up in the fear factor is a quick way to lose money fast. Gold, Silver, Bitcoin, U.S major indices, Forex have all delivered volatile trading the past few weeks. What looks like a gentle day on tap for day traders must always be treated carefully.

This week the U.S will release Retail Sales, Non-Farm Employment Change data and Consumer Price Index readings.

The jobs numbers which traditionally get released on Fridays and should have been published last week, were delayed because of the quasi-govt shutdown which happened. 

Last night’s Super Bowl was a rather lackluster game, while this has nothing to do with the markets, perhaps it will cause some type of reaction via a need for more noise (emotions) to be heard by those who have a desire for attention they do not deserve. No do not worry, the game’s outcome is not going to affect today’s trading. However, via behavioral sentiment this week’s coming results across a wide range of assets are set to be more entertaining than the Seahawks victory over the Patriots last night.

Day traders have likely made money for their brokers the past couple of weeks as they have taken hits because of volatility. This week could provide more choppiness. Retail traders need to remain careful and not bet on things simply because someone else suggests they are an expert on world affairs when they in actuality are merely getting paid to make noise and sell more bets. And by the way, betting on the Patriots last night to win just because they had won so many times before is a reminder past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.

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Bitcoin Lower after White House Crypto Summit Led by Trump

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

Bitcoin Lower after White House Crypto Summit Led by Trump

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BTC/USD One Month Chart as of 8th March

Yesterday’s Crypto Summit at the White House didn’t meet the hopes of those who desire the U.S to be a proactive Bitcoin buyer. Baby steps accomplished for exchanges perhaps, but not a gamechanger for influencers looking to spark another rally higher.

Bitcoin is lower in early trading this Saturday, after the White House cryptocurrency summit essentially said it would hold onto Bitcoin that has been seized by the government, but did not express other impetus which would have driven the price of BTC/USD upwards.

While President Trump did sign an Executive Order creating a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, it is important to note the holdings of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency will consists of digital assets seized by the U.S, it doesn’t guarantee purchases of Bitcoin by the government.

Cryptocurrency backers may be unhappy with the White House’s lack of desire to engage in proactive cryptocurrency buying, including Bitcoin, which may have sparked the downturn being seen for the moment. One important statement in the Executive Order states:

“The Executive Order begins to resolve the current disjointed handling of cryptocurrencies seized through forfeiture by, and scattered across, various Federal agencies.”

A careful reading of the above and other declarations in the Executive Order, makes it clear that the Trump administration wants better oversight of previously seized Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. The Executive Order while suggesting the government sold some of its Bitcoin in the past and other cryptocurrencies too early, can also be viewed as political statement proclaiming poor management – but this is an assertion which uses hindsight – which is always easier.

If the U.S government is holding substantial Bitcoin now, perhaps this may be the time to cash out considering the BTC/USD market is still rather highly valued. In other words, if the U.S government decides to hold onto Bitcoin too long it could simply prove to be just another speculator.

The Executive Order signed yesterday may create less restrictions and greater freedom for legally established U.S cryptocurrency exchanges that already exists. However, more flexibility for new enterprises trying to enter the sphere need opportunities they can pursue in what is already a competitive landscape. Bitcoin did trade above 91,300 yesterday, but after the Crypto Summit outcome began to see a selloff and as of this writing is hovering near 86,000 USD.

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MicroStrategy and Bitcoin: Will They Turn into Smithereens?

by with No Comment AMT MarketsAssetsFeatured Highlights

MicroStrategy and Bitcoin: Will They Turn into Smithereens?

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MicroStrategy One Year Chart as of 25th January 2025

MicroStrategy near 353.67 per yesterday’s close. Bitcoin around $104,625 this morning. Will the balloons keep inflating or become smithereens? The combo of MSTR and BTC/USD are combustible.

MarketWatch has published an excellent article on the borrowing via bonds that MicroStrategy is undertaking with investors. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-investors-are-lending-microstrategy-billions-of-dollars-at-0-interest-so-it-can-buy-bitcoin-03f7cacf The article highlights the red hot glow that some investors are pursuing via bets on MicroStrategy and Bitcoin.

MSTR has turned from a data driven company that produces revenue into a proxy bet on Bitcoin. Not everyone is a fan. As of late November 2024 Citron Capital has been reported to be ‘shorting’ MicroStrategy.

Students intrigued by the art of speculation, finance and business outlook have an active case study via MicroStrategy. This is a saga which will continue to grow in stature as investors and speculators seek profits. While the potential for disaster remains high, Michael Saylor of MicroStrategy and his cult like leadership capabilities has led his flock of believers into a golden land for now, but what storms await?

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BTC/USD One Year Chart as of 25th January 2025

Naysayers of MicroStrategy’s foray into Bitcoin have thus far been proven wrong. Michael Saylor and his legions will continue singing praises about Bitcoin and its ability to turn into the modern version of gold, but perhaps it will turn into a digital asset nightmare. However, there is no denying the strength of the trend which has manifested the past year in both MSTR and BTC/USD. With the advent of President Trump and his seemingly pro digital asset stance being taken; and the growing desire by some crowds to turn fiat currencies which have been paper based into Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDC) there are likely years left in this saga to unfold.

There has been a growing clamor for central banks to start holding some of their reserves in Bitcoin instead of gold, but for the moment this seems like too wild a thought and a purely speculative notion. Wagering on the confidence generated by digital hype with little intrinsic value, except the ability to create hot air via rhetoric and lofty visions of grandeur still appears to a step too far for most central bankers. Speculating on MicroStrategy and Bitcoin is one of the ultimate bets looking to take advantage of behavioral sentiment in the digital asset realm. MSTR and BTC/USD are highly volatile and have certainly created profits, but the combination could also turn into a horror if things go wrong.

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Reckonings for the 8th of December

by with No Comment Behavioral SentimentCommoditiesFeatured Highlights

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Reckonings for the 8th of December

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10. France Falls: President Macron’s leadership is in peril after his anointed Prime Minister, Michael Bernier, suffered a no confidence vote outcome. French politics and finances are in shambles. Life for French citizens goes on as their politicians battle for their jobs, supremacy of voice and egos. With the restoration and presentation publicly of Notre Dame Cathedral yesterday, Macron now has to find something else to divert attention away from his misappropriation of power.

9. 100,000: Bitcoin came within sight of the 104,000 USD vicinity this Thursday, then sunk with a rapid pace and challenged 92,000. Once again traversing near 100 grand, large BTC whales and MicroStrategy’s Michael Saylor and his cult of followers are likely celebrating. However, if the wind changes direction what kind of damage will the low tides create this time for Bitcoin and speculative leveraged positions? The price of BTC/USD as of this writing is near 99,500.

8. Al-Assad: The Syrian regime is apparently coming to an end after 50 plus years in power. Bashar al-Assad’s whereabouts are unknown. Russia, Iran and Hezbollah appear for the moment to be big losers in this power play. The many factions will now have to see if they can create a semblance of government, but that remains doubtful. Syria will be a quagmire in the coming months as its cauldron stirs.

7. Martial Law: South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol startled Asia and foreign investors by declaring martial law this past week, making one of the worst political miscalculations in recent memory. Yoon was quickly forced to rescind the decision. The USD/KRW spiked and KOSPI Composite sank via the instability. However, the South Korean National Assembly has shown the ability to provide leadership and display power of law prevails, this as they try to calm their citizens concerns and investor sentiment.

6. Roasted: Coffee Arabica has boiled again and commodity’s price is fighting within apex levels. Like Cocoa, both Arabica and Robusta Coffee have surged the past year as large players have created a strangulated grip which suggests the markets may be ‘cornered’. While some analysts are quick to point out weather conditions as a reason for the higher prices, the tenacity of Coffee and Cocoa to sustain upwards momentum is intriguing but also suspicious.

5. FX and Data: U.S jobs numbers this Friday were marginally better than anticipated and the Average Hourly Earnings came in slightly above expectations. Economists from different schools of thought are debating the potential of recession and inflation concerns, versus those who believe growth, greater transparency of U.S fiscal mandates and elimination of a bloated budget will be achieved when Trump’s economic policies takeover. Globally Forex conditions are showing signs of fragility because of the threat of tariffs and trade concessions by nations which may need to be made. Yet, it is quite possible the ‘bad news’ consisting of accusations of unfair trade agreements by Trump, and the reactions which have been cooked into the EUR, GBP, JPY, ZAR, MXN, CAD, NZD and others is overdone. While there could certainly be more weakness in major global currencies paired against the USD, upside potential mid-term may be more positive compared to near-term drawdowns. Retail traders still face difficult technical perceptions in the days ahead because financial institutions also remain shaky regarding their outlooks.

4. Pardon Me Joe: President Biden has forgiven his son, Hunter Biden, for crimes known and unknown for an eleven year period – that is not a round number ladies and gentlemen, with a Presidential Pardon. Why 11 years? Why not 10 or 15? There is conjecture that Joe Biden is also considering preemptive pardons for people his administration feels may face the wrath of the incoming Trump White House. However, if pardons are given to the likes of Anthony Fauci, won’t the pardons awarded to those who have not been charged with a crime yet look like an admission of guilt?

3. Central Banks: The ECB will deliver their interest rate decision on the 12th and the Federal Reserve will announce their Fed Funds Rate on the 18th. Behavioral sentiment however is seemingly more focused on the threat of potential storms that could suddenly appear due to the Trump effect. The ECB and Fed are both expected to cut their interest rates by a quarter of a point, while it appears many financial institutions no longer believe the Fed will cut again in January.

2. Chinese Gold: Tucked away in the quiet corners of the business news has been the discovery of a massive gold ore deposit in China. Some geologists claim the Wangu gold field could have up to 1,100 tons of the precious metal. If correct and the amount of gold meets or exceeds the expectations of the experts, the question about this becoming a deflationary event for gold is intriguing but likely wrong. Importantly, the gold will be a long-term benefit for China and potentially create a stronger national currency via the Renminbi (China Yuan). Perhaps also solidifying the idea of using the reserve as part of the backbone for a potential BRICS ‘Unit’ currency if and when that day ever arrives. Gold closed at nearly 2633.00 USD per ounce before going into this weekend.

1. Trump Effect: WTI Crude Oil is around 66.78 USD as the promise of easier energy production for U.S companies has created the conviction of steady and less expensive supply. The USD remains in the stronger elements of its long-term Forex range, and folks betting against the strength of the USD need to remain cautious. BRICS has been warned about not infringing on the USD by Donald Trump, and some member nations of the organization have affirmed they do not seek a BRICS currency (yet). Tariffs have been threatened, but China has responded by showing it has the ability to create potential hinderances this week via a tough negotiation stance by threatening to stop export of rare earth metals to the U.S. Mexico and Canada have felt the verbal wrath of the President-elect already and started to react. All of this while Donald Trump still has six full weeks before taking power.

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MSTR fell from 400.00 USD yesterday to the 350.00 level.

by with No Comment AMT MarketsAssetsFeatured Highlights

MSTR fell from 400.00 USD yesterday to the 350.00 level.

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MicroStrategy One Month Chart as of 27th November 2024

MicroStrategy went from above 400.00 USD yesterday to the 350.00 level. MSTR is a Bitcoin proxy and speculative. Michael Saylor, the Chairman of MSTR, takes many risks as its leader and appears to have a lot of decision making power when it comes to the company’s corporate treasury purse strings.

MicroStrategy if pursued by retail traders as a CFD or held as a equity in a portfolio needs to be treated as a speculative asset that is highly volatile. Technically MicroStrategy has seen its value correlate to Bitcoin in a well defined manner over the past handful of years. Per current accounting MSTR holds over 386,000 Bitcoin, this per MicroStrategy’s own reporting and publication of a Form 8-K via the SEC.

Its corporate governance has essentially allowed MSTR to become a company that while listed as a data provider including business intelligence, mobile software and cloud based services for users is for all intensive purposes now ‘married’ to Bitcoin as a main driver for its value. MSTR is traded on Nasdaq and the Russell 1000. The company is based in Virginia, USA.

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Musings for the 18th of November

by with No Comment AssetsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Musings for the 18th of November

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10. Election Results: The U.S election concluded almost two weeks ago and there is no discussion this time around of mischievous results, which we can all be thankful. However, there is still talk about results from the past, but perhaps these folks should be thankful for the prospect of a serendipitous outcome this time and get to work.

9. Conspirators: The Onion has tried to buy InfoWars via an auction which is now under review by a court to judge if the procedure was undertaken fairly. Alex Jones’s InfoWars and its sometimes other worldly offering of bizarre and misguided notions is in bankruptcy. The Onion wants to turn the tables on InfoWars and dedicate the ‘purchase’ of the site to ridiculing media and conspiracy folks who produce mindless gobbledygook.

8. From Beyond: The UAP, unidentified aerial phenomena, hearing before Congress last week led to a variety of questions and answers which rehashed known ‘unknowns’ while discussing orders of magnitudes of speed and g-forces that humans and machines can endure. The UAP (UFO) hearing didn’t disclose much in the way of developments regarding alien crafts visiting Earth, except to make it obvious to some that if ‘they’ are out there, we had better hope they are friendly. And if it is earthly corporations or nations testing and displaying new technologies, there seems to be little information publicly available about who may be playing in the skies and waters. Optical illusions?

7. Polymarket Raid: Many folks started pointing fingers when the CEO of Polymarket, Shayne Coplan, had his home raided on the 13th of November, claiming the FBI was politicizing Polymarket’s prediction that Donald Trump would win the U.S President race. But after further review, few have pointed out that Kalshi Inc., which also operates in the U.S and allows sentiment betting was not raided. The difference perhaps being that Kalshi is regulated via contract markets with the CFTC, and Polymarket is not and appears to be potentially operating in non-accordance to U.S laws.

6. Bitcoin & Coffee: BTC/USD continues to tread within the highest of tides and is slightly below 92,000 as of this writing. Coffee Arabica and Robusta are boiling within apex price ranges. Cocoa also remains rather impressively expensive. Which one of these speculative assets has no intrinsic value?

5. Buyer Remorse: At some juncture votes may start to feel a bit of angst per their recent voting decisions. We suggest to Polymarket and Kalshi to allow wagers on when this might be displayed in mass. However, in a very real way the U.S election in two years will be the key instrument to gauge the reaction to what is about to come from the new White House administration. Who will control the House of Representatives in two years time?

4. Forex: Foreign exchange should likely be placed in a number two or one AMT ranking, except to say we do not think retail traders should be enticed by being told no. Volatility that has pervaded the FX markets is not finished quite yet. While USD centric strength continues to cause upheavals against major currencies, and technical support and resistance levels are testing mid and long-term considerations, there still may be a week or so left in swirling whipsaw storms. Risk management has hopefully helped retail traders survive to wager again, but it shouldn’t be today.

3. Fed Donations: Federal law mandates employees of the U.S government, https://www.commerce.gov/sites/default/files/2023-08/political_activities-dos_and_donts-2022.pdf, must disclose their political donations. Recent studies indicate that approximately 90% of Federal Reserve employee donations to political candidates go to Democrats, https://www.yahoo.com/news/federal-employees-overwhelmingly-donate-democratic-175055289.html. This highlights the possibility that many current Fed employees have different perspectives regarding economics compared to those about to take positions of power in Washington D.C.

2. See No Data: U.S economic statistics have been rather tame recently, but financial institutions clearly are not paying much attention to near-term considerations about the potential influence of the Federal Reserve and interest rates. Instead behavioral sentiment appears anxiety laden. Retail traders and large speculators may be getting crushed together in a cyclone of certain assets, particularly if they are trying to fight short-term trends while infatuated with mid-term outlooks. The Fed may cut interest rates again in December.

1. The Clash: The highs in U.S Treasury yields and record territory of U.S stocks being traversed together indicates we will see a rather violent collision when one of these investment pursuits likely capitulates to market dynamics, allowing the other to take precedent. Some long-term investors may be nervous about President-elect Trump taking power in the third week of January, but it would be unwise to bet against him in the next six months. Meaning stocks may ultimately win this battle of attrition against bonds and prove they are more appealing.

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Top Ten Miscellaneous Slogans for the 21st of October

by with No Comment AssetsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

Top Ten Miscellaneous Slogans for the 21st of October

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10. Evil Empires: The Yankees and Dodgers will square off in the World Series with their ultra expensive rosters competing for the championship. Maybe this is exactly what the U.S needs so people can take their minds off of U.S election concerns. A contest between Los Angeles and New York is a big selling card. TV ratings should soar as Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto, Mookie Betts, and Aaron Judge battle for the supremacy of baseball.

9. Vision: SpaceX achieved magical results as a Falcon 9 rocket booster was caught by ‘chopsticks’ as planned for and engineered. Elon Musk proved again that his preposterous ramblings are frequently correct. SpaceX is in a solid position to provide logistics for outer space exploration and development, but to also create new business endeavors as it evolves. The implied value of SpaceX mid-2024 was estimated to be around 200 billion USD.

8. 2017: Bitcoin was around 1,000.00 USD in January of 2017. The price of the digital asset is now approximately 68,500. The perception and betting that a Trump victory may be putting a spring in the step of the cryptocurrency market is intriguing. Bitcoin trades based on behavioral sentiment and not intrinsic value. Trump has spoken about crypto favorably time to time. A more welcoming SEC and CFTC regarding crypto could help values. For those looking for further correlation to BTC/USD and Trump, when he left office in January of 2021, Bitcoin was near 31,000 USD.

7. Downturn: Environmental, social and governance investing has taken a hit compared to results from the past couple of years as outflows from investment vehicles led by the likes of BlackRock and others make noise. ESG has lost its luster as the race for superior profits has run into headwinds and analysts question values and revenues. What will happen over the next few years, particularly if ESG investing finds that it has fewer friends in the U.S halls of power?

6. Data: U.S economic statistics will be rather lacking this week, the highlight may be the Flash Manufacturing PMI numbers on Thursday. Some may try to make the weekly Unemployment Claims a spectacle too, particularly brokers who may be trying to entice day traders into Forex positions. However, the rather calm seas regarding data will turn tumultuous next week because U.S Advance GDP, Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, and the Non-Farm Employment Change results are all on the schedule.

5. Underwater: WTI Crude Oil started to flirt with the 70.00 USD mark last Tuesday, and after a few days of remaining within a rather tight range, support was proven vulnerable. As of this writing WTI is near 69.65. The lack of an attack on Iranian oil infrastructure by Israel has seemingly calmed the energy sector. Fearmongering and bombastic rhetoric have not caused WTI Crude Oil to sustain highs. The commodity is within the lower elements of its long-term price range technically.

4. 24 Carat: Record values in gold are being traversed. As of this writing the precious metal is near 2,734.00 per ounce. Gold was around 1,200.00 USD in January of 2017. Inflation, speculation and concerns about central banks are likely helping gold shine. Some may say the rise in value is a derivative of safe haven investing. Day traders may view the price as speculatively high and dangerous because of its intraday volatility, but long-term gold bugs know the historical track record of the precious metal and its ability to preserve wealth.

3. FX: Major currencies paired against the USD are finding increasingly choppy waters near-term. The USD/JPY is dangerously close to the 150.000 mark, the USD/MXN is within sight of 20.00000, and the GBP/USD is hovering above 1.30000. The EUR/USD is battling too and scuffling below the 1.09000 ratio. With no major data coming this week, but major risk events approaching on the horizon, now is the time for Forex traders to remain cautious and not get too ambitious. Forex may provide technical traders with the ability to wager on perceived support and resistance near-term. But soon, a huge wave of volatility is going to hit currency speculation and financial institutions are certainly getting prepared for the storm.

2. Tick Tock: The U.S election is only a bit more than two weeks away. This may be the last week for any huge surprises which could sway the decisions of voters. Harris and Trump and campaigning hard and receiving intense media coverage. Early voting is underway, but November the 5th is the date everyone is focused on. When the clock strikes November the 6th in the U.S, global investors will react.

1. Behavioral sentiment: Key market barometers will continue to get plenty of attention in the coming days. U.S indices serve as a heat check regarding the potential outcome of the U.S election. Equities are near highs and this seems to be a rather solid indication risk appetite remains the dominant feature. While some will not want to hear it, this likely means many folks in the investment world are starting to believe Donald Trump might win the U.S election.

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Interpretations on the 13th of Oct

by with No Comment Central BanksCryptocurrenciesFeatured Highlights

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Interpretations on the 13th of Oct

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10. Language: The French word histoirie includes both history and story via its English interpretation. The French usage conveys the acknowledgement that history is often subjective and a story written with an opinion which may or may not be the correct narrative.

9. Subway Series: New York baseball fans will be in an uproar this coming week as the Mets play the Los Angeles Dodgers, and the Yankees face the Cleveland Guardians. The potential of a crosstown World Series will have NYC holding its collective breath. New York fans shouldn’t celebrate too soon, because the Dodgers are dangerous and the Guardians will be competitive.

8. Free Press: CBS News in the U.S has been widely condemned this past week. Video released shows ’60 Minutes’ explicitly edited an interview with Kamala Harris. Also, a recorded and ‘leaked’ staff meeting from CBS management has come to light in which Tony Dokoupil, a news anchor, is reprimanded for asking critical questions to writer Ta-Nehisi Coates.

7. Barometers: Gold went into this weekend near 2,656.00, WTI Crude Oil closed around 75.45 on Friday, and U.S Treasury yields increased this week and are now challenging values last seen in the third week of August. Intriguingly, the major U.S equity indices continue to flirt with highs. Broad market results appear to be walking a tightrope as financial institutions seem to be waiting for November and U.S election outcomes. However, long-term investors who are diversified maybe cynical of this thought, and believe buy and hold remains the best policy.

6. Buy or Sell: Negativity surrounding Boeing via workers who are on strike, layoffs, a potential corporate bonds downgrade, production delays, and court decisions are still shadowing. In December of 2023, Boeing was near 265.00 USD per share value. Prices were near 158.00 this time last year, and as of this weekend Boeing is close to 151.00. The bad news surrounding Boeing has been a thorn in the side of investors. Boeing is a major corporation in the U.S and relied upon militarily and for global public aviation. What is the downside potential for Boeing the next year compared to upside capabilities long-term?

5. Crypto: The SEC has filed charges against Cumberland DRW LLC, claiming the crypto exchange has been acting as an unregistered dealer. https://www.sec.gov/enforcement-litigation/litigation-releases/lr-26151 It appears the SEC is growing more aggressive via confrontations with U.S based cryptocurrency exchanges. The U.S election result will play a role in the future leadership and direction of the SEC, and could have an affect on cryptocurrency values. BTC/USD is near 62,700.00, ETH/USD around 2,465.00, BNB/USD about 575.00 at the time of this writing.

4. Tranquility: Stronger USD centric price action continues to create some downwards motion for other major currencies, but price velocity was not as violent last week compared to previous days since the end of September. Fragile sentiment in financial institutions is still stirring. The ECB rate decision this week will come Thursday and a 0.25 basis point cut is expected. Traders need to remember that a change to the European Central Bank’s Main Refinancing Rate has likely been priced into the EUR/USD. What needs to be heard now is ECB rhetoric and that is likely to remain guarded. Price velocity in Forex remains a danger for retail traders this coming week.

3. U.S Election: There are only three weeks left until the U.S vote. Day traders need to understand financial institutions will grow more cautious as the election approaches. Speculators may want to try and wager on the outcome of the election, but unless a definitive result is predictable beforehand, it will be hard to take advantage of political winds which are swirling. It will be nearly impossible for day traders to hold onto a position over the next few weeks unless they have deep pockets, use no leverage, and have the patience of a saint.

2. Make or Break: China will release important economic data this week. Trade Balance and Foreign Direct Investment numbers are tentatively scheduled to be released on Monday, along with New Loans reporting. This coming Friday New Homes Sales, GDP, and Retail Sales figures will be released. China is trying to stimulate the economy with billions of cash, but critics suggests this will not work. The Shanghai Composite Index is near the 3,217 mark, on the 30th of September the SSE was near 3,675. Before the China stimulus was released the Shanghai Composite was near 2,755. Bullish SSE momentum has run into headwinds since the beginning of October, China may be pressured to try and create more stimulus, but will it produce a lasting positive result? Traders caught up in the buying frenzy in late September are likely getting more nervous about declines. The USD/CNY is near 7.066. Chinese economic data should be monitored this week.

1. Interest Rates: The Federal Reserve via the CPI and PPI inflation reports still appears able to cut another 0.25 basis point from the Federal Funds Rate on the 7th of November. While the Consumer Price Index data showed a slight tick up in a few categories, Friday’s Producer Price Index met expectations via the core monthly report and the broad monthly outcome came in less than anticipated. The November interest rate decision is important regarding consistency per the Fed’s messaging the past two months, and mid-term behavioral sentiment outlook among financial institutions. U.S Retail Sales and Housing numbers will be published this week.

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Battlefronts for the 7th of Sept

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Battlefronts for the 7th of Sept

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10. Cape Town: Springboks take on the All Blacks in Round Four of the Rugby Championship later this afternoon. South Africa won last week’s test. Roster changes have been made to both starting squads. Springboks Captain Siya Kolisi will start, this after he had been listed as questionable earlier this week because of a nose fracture he suffered in last Saturday’s game, which will be dealt with surgically in the near future. The All Blacks are extremely difficult to beat two games in a row, today’s match could be a firecracker.

9. Spy Games: Alleged China spy Linda Sun is accused of trying to influence policy while working in New York Governor Kathy Hochul’s office as an aide. The alleged spy also worked in the previous New York administration under Andrew Cuomo. Sun and her husband, Chris Hu, have been charged by the U.S government to be in violation of the Foreign Agents Registration Act amidst a litany of alleged illegal activities.

8. VPN Wanted: Brazilian Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes has suspended X because of claims the social media service, previously known as Twitter, is allowing ‘misinformation’. Justice Alexandre de Moraes has broad powers and is permitting Brazil’s ruling government led by Lula da Silva to walk a perilous line that does not allow for free expression. Brazil has not heard the last of Elon Musk.

7. Boeing: Starliner returned to earth last night touching down in New Mexico, but without the astronauts it delivered to space in early June. The mission was supposed to take 8 days, but instead stranded the two astronauts on the International Space Station. NASA has stated it was potentially dangerous for the astronauts to return in Starliner. The astronauts are now scheduled to return in February 2025 with SpaceX. Starliner is owned by Boeing. This time last year Boeing’s share value was near 219.00, as of yesterday it is 157.62 USD.

6. Xmas in October: Nicolas Maduro, the Venezuelan President (dictator), has announced the Christmas holiday will be celebrated on the 1st of October, allowing Venezuelan citizens an early celebration in order to forget the troubles imposed on the nation by foes who are working against the socialist government. Maduro joins a well established line of totalitarian leadership who have historically moved or canceled religious holidays to manipulate the population.

5. Harris vs. Trump: A debate between the two candidates will take place this coming Tuesday on the 10th of September. Because of murky outlooks among many financial institutions, this televised ‘exchange of views’ will not only get the attention of U.S voters and an interested worldwide populace, but global investors as well. The last Presidential debate effectively ended Joe Biden’s hopes of being re-elected. Will this event proceed without biased moderators?

4. Wobbly High-Wire: WTI Crude Oil finished the week around 68.52 per barrel as traders appear to be worried about a U.S economic slowdown. Gold closed Friday near the 2,497.00 realm per ounce, as investors fret over the USD and Federal Reserve. BTC/USD is trading around 54,230 at the time of this writing, Bitcoin was valued around 65,000 early on the 26th of August. Cocoa closed near 8,300.00 USD per ton yesterday after flirting with lows touching 7,900.00 on Wednesday. Day traders trying to wager this past week within commodities likely found they were not immune to nervous sentiment.

3. Negative: U.S jobs data was bad. While some say the numbers were mixed the Non-Farm Employment Change came in significantly lower than its estimate, and the previous month’s statistics were revised downwards. The higher Average Hourly Earnings report provided no favors via its outcome of 0.4% compared to the expected result of 0.3%, it wasn’t too far from the estimate and should not change inflation perspectives. Simply put, the jobs numbers are causing concerns in many financial institutions who believe the Federal Reserve is being too cautious.

2. Nervous Investors: U.S equity indices finished yesterday’s trading at their lows for the week. In fact the Nasdaq 100, Dow 30 and S&P 500 are all traversing values they last saw on the 13th of August. The major indices are fragile. Equities on the 13th of August were still recovering from losses seen the week before when previous Fed and BoJ policy chaos triggered overreactive selling on the 5th of August. On Friday the 2nd of August negative Non-Farm Employment Change data was published. What will happen to indices, Forex and Treasury yields on Monday the 9th of September?

1. Fed Fail: John Williams the New York Federal Reserve President said after the jobs numbers were reported, that the Federal Funds Rate is in a position to be cut. However, Williams continued to lean into the widespread notion the Fed will only impose a 0.25% decrease. He did say he would look at the jobs numbers closely, but he believed the Fed is well positioned. Behavioral sentiment among financial institutions appeared to react poorly to Williams remarks, producing a strong selloff as Friday progressed. The dream of orchestrating a soft economic landing in the U.S by the Federal Reserve allowing inflation to erode, the jobs market to soften, and GDP to remain above recessionary pressure remains the lofty goal. However financial institutions do not like the convoluted mid-term economic outlook, they now want to hear a dovish sounding Federal Reserve and appear ready to cause more short-term chaos in the markets this coming week.

postR196

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Notions for the 30th of August 2024

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Notions for the 30th of August 2024

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10. Ellis Park, Johannesburg: The Springboks will face the All Blacks on Saturday in round three of the Rugby Championship. One of the greatest rivalries in sports will match South Africa who is looking to cement their current team’s legacy as one of the best rugby squads ever, versus New Zealand who is looking for revenge having lost to the Springboks in the World Cup Final in October 2023.

9. Labor Day: Short-term speculators should be mindful that today’s volumes may be thin due to U.S financial institutions allowing employees to leave early for a long weekend. While all the major U.S exchanges will be operating, transaction volumes will become lackluster as the day progresses with the last U.S summer holiday approaching.

8. Precious Future: Gold is traversing around 2,520.00 USD per ounce this morning, as Bitcoin is near 59,500 USD as of this writing. The precious metal was around 2,000.00 much of February, while Bitcoin began flirting with 59,000 and 60,000 in late February after starting that month near 43,000 USD. While influencers proclaim the future is digital with Bitcoin, Gold continues to shine and has a historical track record as a store of value.

7. Pavel Durov: The CEO of Telegram was released on Wednesday after posting 5 million EUR as bail, he must stay in France and faces a handful of charges. Russia, the UAE and high profile people, including Elon Musk, have publicly criticized France for Durov’s arrest last Saturday. Free speech advocates are largely against the arrest of Durov, while France contends Durov has not been forthcoming about data which has been shared on Telegram to conduct criminal enterprises. Julian Assange was arrested in 2019 in Britain and was only released in June of this year, promptly leaving for Australia.

6. Commodities: The price of WTI Crude Oil is near 76.00 USD and remains in a fairly stable range, Cocoa remains within sight of 9,000.00 as it trades around 8,950.00 this morning. And the prices for Coffee via Robusta and Arabica continue to flirt with apex highs. Day trading wagers on these commodities should be done carefully before the U.S holiday.

5. Art of Speaking: Kamala Harris is being criticized for her reliance on teleprompters as some pundits wonder loudly when she will sit for an unscripted interview. Donald Trump faces continued scrutiny for speaking extemporaneously, and everyone knows this characteristic is not going to change. The race for the White House appears tight. The televised debate between the candidates remains on the schedule for the 10th of September and its format may present the opportunity for verbal fireworks.

4. Eastern Europe: The Russian-Ukrainian war has been escalating the past few weeks as both sides appear to be working with the belief they need to create facts on the ground over the next few months. The potential of a victory by Donald Trump in the U.S may be pushing Russia and the Ukraine into a mode which hopes they can bolster their respective negotiating positions, this if the newly elected U.S President can get the warring sides to discuss an endgame.

3. China: The nation faces difficult economic circumstances and tries to maintain stability via Yuan and bonds interventions. Also, the foreign policy stance of China is growing tensions with the Philippines. The long standing disagreement about Taiwan’s sovereignty is well documented, but Chinese naval activity in the South China Sea is raising alarm bells among some political analysts. Manufacturing PMI results will be published by China early on Saturday. Economic data from the nation is being inspected by foreign investors carefully who are looking for long-term yields, but are troubled about transparency and the potential of sudden policy changes.

As an aside, APEC will conduct its annual meeting in November from the 10th until the 16th in Peru. Both Joe Biden and Xi Jinping will attend. Depending on Biden’s health and the outcome of the U.S Presidential Election on the 5th of November, this Asian-Pacific Economic Cooperation Forum will prove important.

2. U.S Data: Jerome Powell’s capitulation last Friday via his public statement that the Fed needs to cut interest rates fueled a weaker USD. Forex has seemingly priced in a combined 0.50% basis cut via the Fed for September and November. Yesterday’s stronger than anticipated U.S GDP growth and inflation reports however created headwinds, which caused outlook jitters. Today’s Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index monthly gauge is expected to come in with a gain of 0.2%. If the inflation report can match the anticipated result this may calm Forex, equity indices, and Treasury yields before going into the long holiday weekend. Next Friday U.S Non-Farm Employment Change numbers will be published. Today’s trading may be muted because of thin volumes, but day traders should expect volatility to increase starting next Tuesday.

1. Competition: Nvidia was valued around 47.50 USD per share this time last year, as of today the price is near 117.60. Intel’s value was approximately 34.50 USD this time last year, as of today the price is about 20.13 per share. Intel appears to be valued as a commodity supply company nowadays by some investors, while Nvidia’s outlook remains within the auspices of a highly anticipated technological future. Where will both companies values be this time next year?

postR179

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Rays of Light for 23rd of August

by with No Comment AMT MarketsArtificial IntelligenceFeatured Highlights

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Rays of Light for 23rd of August

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10. Word of the Day: Like crepuscular animals which are active during twilight, large market players are ruminating as their summer hiatus draws to an end over the next week and a half. Plans for coming hunts are being formulated as leisure concludes for financial institutions preparing to work in the shadows.

9. Scrolling Failures: Lack of solid results on search engines are becoming a growing annoyance. Is it just us? An abundance of poor information via defined searches on the internet and finding what is sought is becoming increasingly problematic. Is AI being allowed to do too much while still too dumb? AI doesn’t know when it is wrong. Competitors to Google and others are sought.

8. How Dare Us: The postponement of imposed dates regarding energy policy changes are multiplying. The end for the classical use of oil, coal and nuclear is not near. Efficient power is evolving, but this will have to include ‘antique’ generation and grids. The demand for electric vehicles are being confronted with declining sales via U.S consumers. Tangible technology needs precise planning, not apocalyptic rhetoric which tries to scare people.

7. Middle East Calm: The storm is being limited within a tea cup for the moment. The potential for a dangerous boiling painful mess still exists. ‘Serenity now’ remains a mantra for those who need to pay attention as chagrin and anxiousness mix.

6. Fed Retreat: The FOMC Meeting Minutes released this week showed some Fed members remained cautious, while others banged the drum louder regarding interest rate cuts. However, a Fed Funds Rate reduction is almost a 100% certainty for the 18th of September. The question now is what the Fed will do in November. Fed Chairman Powell and a slew of other renowned global central bankers will speak today and tomorrow at the Jackson Hole Symposium. Financial institutions largely believe they know what is going to be said, but comments from Bank of Japan and Brazilian leadership could prove to be informative and entertaining for central bank nerds. Monday could be volatile for USD/BRL traders.

5. VIX: The CBOE’s Volatility Index climbed to the 56 vicinity on the 5th of August as panic grew via widespread overreactions to hyperbole ripping through the markets. The fear gauge is near the 17.55 ratio as of this writing. Market calm has resumed across the board as financial institutions and day traders have been able to achieve a pleasant tone again. Traders who use the VIX as a template regarding the potential of risks suddenly cascading into assets should keep their eyes on the index, which went to a low around the 14.45 mark on Monday. Yet, the slight incremental climb the past few days could be coming from folks still speculating on volatility which may not develop near-term.

4. Barometers: Gold is lingering slightly below 2,500.00 for the moment, this after having achieved a record high on Tuesday when it touched the 2532.00 apex. WTI Crude Oil is near 74.00 USD per barrel and is maintaining a polite value range. Speculatively, Cocoa is again above 9,000 USD per ton and Bitcoin has fought its way above 61,000 this morning. Risk appetite remains stable for the moment.

3. Forex: USD/JPY, EUR/USD, even the USD/ZAR have been able to hold onto their recent trends as USD centric weakness remains viable. Traders who were looking for huge moves in FX this week have likely been disappointed. Retail speculators need to understand financial institutions have been positioning for a weaker USD since the tail end of July. Market players may be quite pleased regarding current Forex equilibrium, which may allow technical traders the ability to take advantage of existing behavioral sentiment, this as reversals flourish and the next big wave of impetus is awaited. Next Thursday’s U.S Preliminary GDP numbers may deliver some noise.

2. Cassandras: Market experts who proclaimed a long-term stock market crash in early August have crawled back into their caves to take cover and percolate their next fear mongering tactics. This after the latest round of predicted catastrophes have vanished. While the major U.S stock indices are not at record highs, they have recovered plenty of lost ground and appear ready for more days in the sun.

1. Political Winds: The curtain closed on the Democratic National Convention in Chicago last night without a serious hiccup. Kamala Harris and Donald Trump now enter a crucial phase of campaigning, and will get plenty of attention as they go into attack mode. The next big event for Harris and Trump will be their televised debate on the 10th of September. Will the outcome prove to be a devastating storm for one of the candidates?

postR196

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Remarks for the 14th of July 2024

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Remarks for the 14th of July 2024

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10. Words of the Day: Political rhetoric is using platitudes and subterfuge camouflaging verbal nonsense, masking a vacuum of non-results and causing fatigue of populist promises.

9. Harris Prediction: After the NATO press conference in which Biden was more lucid but still made mistakes, it is beginning to feel like Kamala Harris is being given room to audition for the Presidency by the Democratic machine. If her polling numbers show improvement over the next couple of weeks, look for Harris to replace Biden at the DNC in Chicago, if her polling numbers are not good enough in the eyes of the elite power brokers, it is possible Biden may be asked to give up his delegates, allowing for an open convention.

8: Zombie Inflation: Data results via the U.S CPI caused a reaction in the broad markets, and volatility in Forex. While the broad monthly Consumer Price Index number on Thursday was minus -0.1%, the PPI numbers on Friday came in higher than expected causing some to feel that inflation remains a plague. However, if the Producer Price Index was interpreted as being higher because rising prices are coming via more expensive employee costs (which might see an end to the cycle sooner rather than later if jobs data continues to weaken) this is why there might not have been a violent Forex reversal on Friday. And Consumer Sentiment numbers from the University of Michigan came in below expectations again, and inflation expectations via the consumer survey showed some erosion.

7. Federal Fund Rates: Financial institutions have clearly begun to factor in the belief an interest rate cut will occur in September. The Fed which has been cautious consistently the past seven months may now have enough ammunition to consider becoming more dovish. A September interest rate cut has certainly been factored into Forex and Treasury yields, and there is a growing tide of sentiment which believes the weaker GDP numbers combined with the potential of less inflation could spark additional Federal Funds Rate cuts this calendar year. Outlook fueled by optimism regarding a more dovish Fed could be a factor in the markets the remainder of July.

6. Gold and Silver: Commodity prices are soaring as speculators pursue bullish trends. Gold finished this week above 2,410.00 USD. Silver is traversing above 30.00 USD per ounce for the first time since 2011 and 2012. These two metals are not always correlated, and day traders should remember Silver remains a rather easily mined commodity which sometimes influences downwards pressure because supply can be increased. Having said that, Gold and Silver have had solid bullish trends since February of this year.

5. Thaw: Bitcoin is near 60,000 as of this writing. The crypto winter has seemingly ended and many folks are standing in the sunlight and proclaiming long-term projections of Bitcoin as it maintains a higher price range. It should be remembered the most significant percentage of trading volumes within cryptos reside heavily within the top tier, and the ‘assets’ ranked lower remain in wagering cesspools. Cryptocurrency remains speculatively dangerous, and largely a place to move illicit cash with the perception the money can be kept ‘dark’.

4. USD/JPY: The Bank of Japan won last week’s game of fire. The U.S Consumer Price Index numbers dealt a blow to the blind fury of speculative buying in the USD/JPY, and there is also a belief among many that the BoJ added onto the selling momentum of the currency pair too with a well timed intervention. The currency pair which was near the 161.640 juncture suddenly dived to nearly 157.420. The USD/JPY has gone into this weekend near the 157.900 ratio. The USD/JPY saga is not finished yet, and froth via bullish endeavors remains dangerous. Day traders here have been warned.

3. China: Friday’s Trade Balance numbers were good, compared to the rather weak CPI results seen on the 10th of July which were negative. China’s Communist Central Committee begins a Plenary Session tomorrow until the 18th. Will they speak in platitudes? The USD/CNY has certainly seen a ‘soft’ devaluation since February of this year, but the currency pair did go into the weekend near the 7.2500 mark which is off the high of 7.2765 seen this past Thursday. China still must improve consumer sentiment domestically and this remains a difficult struggle as ramifications from the implosion in China housing values mires the landscape. GDP numbers will come from the nation on Monday.

2. Behavioral Sentiment: Equities and indices, Forex, and commodities are all experiencing risk appetite permutations. While it might be tempting for retail traders to bet on lower reversals of trends, sometimes its much easier to simply ride optimistic waves. Certainly there will be days when financial assets struggle, but the apex heights of the Dow Jones 30, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 should be treated with respect. Treasury yields are at mid-term depths and appear ready to traverse lower.

1. Trump: The attempted assassination of Donald Trump on Saturday in Pennsylvania will galvanize his supporters and likely push many people towards voting for him November. The amount of vitriol Trump has endured from his political opponents including the highest echelons of the Democrats and many in the media needs to be contemplated and quieted. Opposition to political ideology is fine, but the use of hyperbolic musings has led the U.S to a dangerous place. It would be wise for pragmatic adults to rejoin political discourse. Traders should watch the financial markets early this week to see if the U.S political front causes a reaction.