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Anonymous Kingdom: Bitcoin’s Lack of Transparency is Supreme

by with No Comment AMT MarketsCryptocurrencies & Digital AssetsFeatured Highlights

Anonymous Kingdom: Bitcoin's Lack of Transparency is Supreme

Bitcoin has fallen below the 40,000.00 USD price level today, and after penetrating the depth of 39,500.00 USD has shown additional velocity lower. Bitcoin is now testing support near the 38,850.00 ratio, a value it last tested on the 2nd of December.

Influencers will likely urge their fanbases to look at six-month charts to understand Bitcoin is still within the upper levels of its price range, this because a look at a three-month chart isn’t as cheerful. The speculative asset remains a dangerous place for day traders to participate who do not have legitimate insights regarding Bitcoin.

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BTC/USD Six Month Chart as of 23rd January 2024

The question that some are likely starting to ask is what happened to the bullish rush in Bitcoin that was evangelized as a source of inspiration when the U.S Bitcoin ETFs materialized? FOMO (fear of missing out) again became an ‘advert’ for Bitcoin. True patience is needed when investing in financial assets, but day traders aren’t investing they are speculating and BTC/USD is likely costing them plenty of money.

It has been publicized that BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF now holds over 1 billion USD in funds. However, while BlackRock and other ETFs have added to their assets under management of Bitcoin, what are short positions within the ETFs regarding size? This number is elusive, but the ability to sell ETF ‘share’ value within the new Bitcoin funds being offered is said to exist.

Bitcoin’s open interest numbers within the CME’s future contracts was nearly 26,669 positions on the 11th of January, yesterday’s reporting via the Chicago Mercantile Exchange was 22,250 open positions. While day traders may be speculating on the price of BTC/USD via their brokers’ trading platforms, they have to understand that their wagers are not affecting the real market price. The big players within the Bitcoin market do not operate on brokerage platforms which are merely offering CFD positions. The large traders are using cryptocurrency exchanges, futures and options via the CME, and now ETF positions.

Unless a trader is actively selling Bitcoin on a selected cryptocurrency exchange – and likely being asked to open a margin account – and thus opening the door to leverage and volatility, which it can be argued is designed to knock you out of the positions. You are going to find it difficult to actually sell ‘physical’ Bitcoin via short positions that are ‘manipulating’ the cash/spot market.

Bitcoin is a playground for sophisticated traders with plenty of cash to speculate and will continue to produce a world of extreme price volatility. On the 11th of January the price of Bitcoin jumped towards the 49,000.00 mark before declining. Bitcoin’s high early this morning was around the 40,150.00 ratio before stumbling the past handful of hours. Note, that open interest was at its highest on the 11th of January via CME futures trading information.

If you want to speculate (bet) on the value of Bitcoin as a day trader you should understand that you are participating in a marketplace that still doesn’t have the best of transparency. Yes, in most assets day traders are always competing against complex dynamics in which they have no control. However, speculating on BTC/USD is still being done almost blindfolded because of the lack of insights that is part of Bitcoin’s anonymous allure that many of its proponents love. We are still a distance away from transparency within the world of Bitcoin.

If traders can get access to volumes data – and the size of long and short positions being placed within the crypto exchanges they are using that helps. But because Bitcoin trading is still unregulated, and since there are many crypto exchanges operating you will only be getting small bits of information. The lack of information should worry day traders and serve as a caution sign.

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Notions for 12th of January 2024

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Notions for 12th of January 2024

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10. Music: School Days by Stanley Clarke. Recorded in 1976, the ‘song’ is one of the best jazz fusion pieces ever played.

9. Coaches: Bill Belichick and Pete Carroll have been ‘politely’ fired, Nick Saban has retired. NFL and college football remain the ‘Kings of Sport’ in the United States.

8: Taiwan: Presidential election will be held tomorrow. Expect noise from China this weekend regarding Taiwan’s sovereignty.

7. Forex: Volatility struck yesterday in USD based currency pairs, whipsawing as financial institutions reacted to the Consumer Price Index reports. More inflation data will come from the U.S today.

6. Gold and Crude Oil: Precious metal value has been ‘almost’ steady, and WTI Crude Oil price remains rather calm.

5. China Deflation: CPI and PPI numbers were lackluster this morning. Export numbers from the nation have also delivered troubling declines.

4. Houthis: U.S and U.K missile strikes in Yemen have been conducted, diatribes from the extremists have been sounded, and may cause some investors concerns and potential risk adverse trading considerations going into weekend.

3. Bitcoin: SEC ETF funds approval has been completed, and launch is set to allow retail traders and ‘investors’ to purchase the digital asset. BTC/USD is near 45,960.00 currently. CFD products from brokers will likely be introduced and flourish soon, which will be based on the ETF notional values and allow day traders to wager on upside and downward momentum.

2. PPI Data: U.S Producer Price Index inflation results today could rattle the broad markets. No changes are forecasted. A surprise increase would worry those betting against the USD. Traders should also keep their eyes open for potential revisions to previous months.

1. Risk Appetite: Dow Jones 30, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 continue to flirt with apex values. The Nikkei 225, from Japan, is challenging highs not seen since 1990 as it trades above 35,575.00 for the moment. Equity indices remain optimistic.

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Views for the 15th of December

by with No Comment AMT MarketsAssetsFeatured Highlights

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Views for the 15th of December

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10. Book: Doctor Zhivago by Boris Pasternak.

9. Music: Moanin’ – Charles Mingus Big Band 93 Nostalgia in Times Square. Fantastic jazz.

8. Cryptocurrencies: Game of double dare continues as BTC/USD trades near 42,600.00. ETH/USD resides around 2,250.00. USDT remains at 1.00 and BNB/USD (yes, from the much criticized Binance operation) hovers near 250.00. Be careful out there, folks.

7. Argentina: Newly elected President Javier Milei has begun to enact economic reforms as the nation’s citizens and businesses hunger for better days. Will the Argentine Peso begin to stabilize?

6. South Africa: As the nation celebrates a public holiday for its Rugby World Cup victory today, it should be asked if the people are ready to vote for a political change in 2024? Or have things not gotten bad enough yet?

5. Central Banks: Federal Reserve ‘officially’ turned to a neutral/ almost soft monetary policy stance on Wednesday, the BoE and ECB followed Fed’s dance steps yesterday. GBP and EUR have gained and look intent to flirt with July 2023 values.

4. U.S Treasuries: Yields continue to erode and are near values seen half a year ago, with further decreases seemingly ready to occur mid-term.

3. Commodities: Gold is producing near-term speculative upwards muscle. Copper traders appear to be eyeing higher values.

2. JPY: Price velocity has propelled the USD/JPY to fresh lows, this as the currency pair gains speculative interest and behavioral sentiment shifts.

1. All Time Value: Dow Jones Industrials has achieved record heights. Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 indices at one year highs as investors show risk appetite.

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Nibbles for the 1st of December

by with No Comment AMT MarketsAssetsFeatured Highlights

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Nibbles for the 1st of December

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10. Book: Kissinger: 1923 – 1968: The Idealist by Neill Ferguson

9. Music: Clifford Brown and Max Roach Quintet playing Joy Spring.

8. Bitcoin: Curious stubborn trend higher as ETF fever appears to be creating bets on perceived ‘forced’ upwards momentum. BTC/USD now above 38,000.00.

7. Charlie Munger: Passed away earlier this week. Extremely well regarded as a man and helped create the Berskshire Hathaway colossus.

6. Crude Oil: Cash price of WTI Crude Oil remains stable and hovering above mid-term support after OPEC and associates announced voluntary production reductions yesterday.

5. Data: While U.S GDP numbers came in with solid growth statistics on Wednesday, yesterday’s U.S Core Personal Consumption Expenditures results came in below last month’s data showing inflation is eroding.

4. Gold: The precious metal remains above 2000.00 USD in a rather strong fashion, short-term speculation has been vigorous. Caution is advised for day traders.

3. Jerome Powell: The Federal Reserve Chairman will be speaking in Atlanta later today and his comments while participating in a ’roundtable’ discussion could affect behavioral sentiment going into the weekend.

2. USD: Outlooks via tier 1 financial institutions and larger players keeping the ‘greenback’ weaker and near mid-term support against other major currencies, price velocity should be watched.

1. U.S Indices: Dow Jones Industrials touching highs not seen since January 2022. S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite within sight of July 2023 apex levels, and if penetrated upwards would also bring these indices to heights of late 2021 and early 2022, this as risk appetite demonstrates backbone.

You can find more AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous lists in the AngryMetaTraders archive

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Feast for the 24th of November

by with No Comment AMT MarketsEquitiesFeatured Highlights

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Feast for the 24th of November

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10. Book: A Thanksgiving Diet – Life as a Glutton by T.M.F Resuscitate.

9. Music: Frank Sinatra singing Somethin’ Stupid.

8. Global Commerce: London Metal Exchange and Baltic Exchange Dry Index prices are higher since September lows.

7. Post Holiday Warning: Trading volumes will be light today, day traders should expect quiet markets and sudden bursts of volatility. Early reactions next week may result in reversals due to perceived lack of price equilibriums having occured via today’s results, this as U.S financial institutions return in full to their offices Monday and Tuesday.

6. Election Surprises: Argentina and the Netherlands point to seismic changes in voting sentiment. India, South Africa and the U.S have major elections coming in 2024.

5. Crytocurrencies: Binance legal problems in the U.S casting shadows of doubt, but BNB/USD has been somewhat stable. Bitcoin – yes, a digital asset – is above 37,000.00 USD as of this writing.

4. Gold: Price of the precious metal remains slightly below 2000.00 USD level.

3. Energy Prices: WTI Crude Oil, Brent, Natural Gas and Gasoline remain within sight of one year lows, but intriguing support levels for speculators with long-term outlooks.

2. U.S Equity Indices: Stocks will trade in shortened sessions today. The major indices are within sight of one year highs. Next week could see positive momentum sustained.

1. Forex: USD within an intriguing near-term price range. GBP, JPY and NZD are some of the major currencies showing signs of potential strength versus the ‘greenback’ as outlooks seemingly shift.

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Thoughts for the 10th of November

by with No Comment AMT MarketsArtFeatured Highlights

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Thoughts for the 10th of November

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AMT Top Ten Thoughts for 10th of November 2023

10. Book: Art Lover: A Biography of Peggy Guggenheim by Anton Gill.

9. Music: Igor Stravinsky’s The Firebird.

8. Word of Day: Parabolic which highlights Bitcoin’s movement the past month, and may be followed by the word reversal.

7. Centrism: A political wish for our times.

6. Equivocate: Central Banks led by the U.S Federal Reserve continue to protect one another by talking out of both sides of their mouths.

5. Gold: 1950.00 USD per ounce looks to be important support for the precious metal via a three month chart. Will 1950.00 USD remain durable?

4. USD: Stubborn choppy Forex conditions continue to flourish and may remain prevalent in the near-term.

3. Consumer Sentiment: U.S consumers are staying away from home purchases because of high interest rates, today’s data from the University of Michigan will shed light on what they are buying instead.

2. U.S Treasuries: Higher yields are trouble for the Federal Reserve, and should scare U.S citizens who may be penalized with higher taxes to pay off U.S mounting debts.

1: USD/JPY: Japanese Yen trading near values last sustained in 1990 for a significant amount of time.

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Shots for Friday the 3rd of Nov.

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Shots for Friday the 3rd of Nov.

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10. NBA: Welcome to Victor Wembanyama’s world. VW’s 5th game as a Spur was historic last night.

9. South Africa: The Springboks Rugby World Cup victory is helping unifying the nation and giving all its citizens a hope for better days.

8. Book: The Gulag Archipelago by Aleksandr I. Solzhenitsyn.

7. Crypto: Sam Bankman-Fried found guilty on all counts. Yet, Bitcoin is near 34,600.00 USD per coin.

6. Risks: Signs of appetite as U.S equity indices have moved higher, and U.S Treasury yields have declined.

5. Gold: The precious metal still lingering near 2000.00 USD and may attract bearish speculative positions.

4. Middle East: Global financial institutions appear to have dealt with the noise.

3. U.S Jobs Reports: Non-Farm Employment Change numbers and Average Hourly Earnings inflation data will be published today and shake markets.

2. Federal Reserve: The U.S central bank may have reached the end of it interest rates hikes cycle.

1. USD: The world’s reserve currency remains suspiciously strong and if it is a relatively calm today and this weekend, day traders may begin to embrace selling wagers.

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Inflation Data and Fed’s FOMC Meeting Minutes This Week

by with No Comment AMT MarketsCentral BanksFeatured Highlights

Inflation Data and Fed's FOMC Meeting Minutes This Week

Last week’s economic data ended with rather tantalizing headline jobs numbers as the U.S showed more hiring than expected, but while this grabbed media soundbites in many circles – the Average Hourly Earnings numbers came in below expectations. The broad Forex market proved dynamic with a stronger USD in many cases, but intriguingly equity markets in the States generated upwards momentum on Friday too. U.S Treasuries were mixed regarding their yields, and the 10-year bond while finishing up for the week was below its highs.

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WTI Crude Oil One Month Chart as of 9th of Oct. 2023

The coming week will likely continue to produce nervousness, but outlook will be helped via a couple of U.S inflation reports and the FOMC Meeting Minutes report. Crude Oil prices should be watched as news from the Middle East unfolds. Gold remains under pressure.

Cryptocurrency speculators should keep their eyes on Binance Coin as it battles important lows. Bitcoin has remained relatively stable, but BNB/USD is near crucial support that could signal another wave of pressure is developing within the Binance exchange.

Monday, the 9th of October, International Monetary Fund – week-long meetings get underway and investors who participate in global stock markets and bonds should pay attention to the chatter.

Tuesday, the 10th of October, Central Bank Officials speaking – ECB President Lagarde will be speaking at the IMF conference. Federal Reserve officials will be speaking at meetings in the U.S. While the chatter may cause some nervous reactions briefly in financial institutions, it is unlikely the central bankers will say anything that is surprising.

Wednesday, the 11th of October, U.S Producer Price Index – the broad and core reports should be watched. Last week’s lower Average Hourly Earnings numbers were slightly surprising, but the recent higher energy costs could factor into the PPI results. The broad report is anticipated to show a decline. If the Producer Price Index statistics come in weaker than expected this could help the USD lose some strength.

Wednesday, the 11th of October, U.S FOMC Meeting Minutes – the publication is expected to follow the rhetoric already voiced by the Fed at their last press conference. However, insights regarding dialogue could move the needle in Forex. The U.S central bank is widely expected to raise the Federal Funds Rate in November, but what comes beyond this anticipated move is still in question. Expect the key word in the FOMC report to be ‘inflation’.

Thursday, the 12th of October, U.K Gross Domestic Product – the growth numbers from Great Britain are expected to show a slight rise in GDP. If the gains match expectations or come in better it could help bolster the GBP/USD which has been struggling against the USD for the past three months.

Thursday, the 12th of October, U.S Consumer Price Index – these reports will be crucial and will impact Forex and equities immediately after their release. While the Core CPI number is expected to match last month’s outcome, the broad reports are anticipated to be weaker. If the inflation numbers are stronger than expected the USD could gain strength, if the results are weaker it could help build selling momentum in the USD.

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USD/CNY Six Month Chart as of 9th Oct. 2023

Friday, the 13th of October, China Consumer and Producer Price Index – the two releases will be watched carefully by investors. China’s economic data has been weak and financial institutions have become concerned by deflation. The USD/CNY may be impacted upon the publication of the reports.

Friday, the 13th of October, U.S Consumer Sentiment via the University of Michigan – following the CPI numbers from the U.S on Thursday, these numbers will show the attitude of U.S consumers and their spending habits. Financial institutions will monitor these numbers and correlate them to the U.S inflation reports seen earlier.

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Anxious Results and Outlooks as Traders Brace for Week Ahead

by with No Comment AMT MarketsAssetsFeatured Highlights

Anxious Results and Outlooks as Traders Brace for Week Ahead

Speculators with visions of taking advantage of day trading perspectives often look for correlations within asset classes to help gain an outlook on another trading vehicle they may be considering. The problem with this like many things for day traders is that sudden gyrations in asset classes technically are often affected by positioning from large players who do not care what the ‘minnows’ are doing. Institutional trading is frequently done with long-term considerations.

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S&P500 Index Future Three Months Chart as of 11th Sept. 2023

The Forex market has seen the USD grow stronger since the middle of July against most major currencies. At the same time charts via U.S Treasuries clearly demonstrate yields increasing. This is not a coincidence. Market behavior remains anxious as financial institutions look to lock in a certain amount of ‘guaranteed’ returns. Recent economic data has been lackluster from the U.S and this week important inflation numbers are certain to influence existing sentiment.

A side note for day traders who like to study economic data, ‘revisions’ via published data is starting to set off concerns among traders. Revisions to previous statistics reported are becoming a talking point among investors who believe the numbers they are looking at from many countries, including the U.S, need to be given a certain degree of skepticism. The Wall Street Journal published an article about this a couple of weeks ago.

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WTI Crude Oil Three Months Chart as 11th Sept. 2023

In the coming days the price of Crude Oil may make headlines as the commodity enters this week near values last seen in November of 2022. The high price of Crude Oil will spark vocal warnings about potential inflation dangers. Speculative elements within the energy sector will be active and hope to take advantage of its trend. A sustained move above 90.00 USD per barrel would be intriguing.

Some analysts might try to correlate higher energy prices to increased demand from global manufacturing sectors, but this could be questionable considering many spheres are suffering from recessionary pressures. But again, the real facts and dynamics behind a potential sustained climb of Crude Oil prices are complex.

Smaller traders need to understand the news they are reading today was known by ‘insiders’ many days before and they have already acted on their knowledge to take advantage of prices.

The cuts in production from Saudi Arabia and other producers has sparked speculative influence, and perhaps the narrative that outlook for more Crude Oil demand could build if the U.S continues to demonstrate a ‘soft landing’. The chatter and explanations for changes to price are almost limitless and day traders need to be aware they will not be privy certain information.

This leaves the door open for day traders to consider trying to understand market behavior within the financial world. The answer for short-term speculators who are wagering on price direction is not a simple interpretation of technical charts, they should also consider fundamental knowledge of the asset mixed with an understanding of current market dynamics as sentiment shifts among institutional players.

In other news to look out for this week, traders who are active in the cryptocurrency space should continue to monitor the support levels that Bitcoin and Binance Coin are traversing. Incremental drops in value continue to be seen and a sustained reversal higher has been difficult to attain.

Monday, 11th of September, China New Loans – the amount of borrowing from businesses and consumers within China will provide insights regarding the strength (or weakness) of the domestic economy.

Tuesday, 12th of September, U.K Claimant Count Change and Average Earnings Index – the jobs numbers from the U.K will provide the GBP/USD with a bit of additional impetus. The U.K economy is in the spotlight and critics have become loud as many point to Brexit problems, which they claim are causing complications. However, within a global economy that is under pressure the fact that conditions in Britain are difficult doesn’t take a lot of time to find other correlations.

Tuesday, 12th of September, Germany Economic Sentiment via ZEW – the reading is expected to show a negative outlook again from the responses of institutional investors based in Germany. A result of minus -15.0 is the forecast. The report could shake the EUR/USD a bit momentarily.

Wednesday, 13th of September, U.K GDP – growth numbers will certainly get plenty of attention for Britain. The anticipated number is minus -0.2%. If the result is worse than the recessionary estimate it could spark more negative sentiment.

Wednesday, 13th of September, U.S Consumer Price Index reports – inflation statistics will be studied carefully and impact Forex immediately if the published results do not meet expectations. The Federal Reserve, institutional investors and the broad financial markets will react to the CPI data.

Thursday, E.U European Central Bank Main Refinancing Rate – the ECB is not expected to make any changes to borrowing rates. The European Central Bank is also anticipated to warn that economic conditions remain challenging and they are monitoring inflation and growth. Anything more than these words via the ECB Monetary Policy Statement and Press Conference could spark some EUR/USD price action.

Thursday, 14th of September, U.S Producer Price Index – like Wednesday’s inflation numbers, the PPI statistics will affect market sentiment regarding outlook and interpretations regarding the potential responses from the Federal Reserve.

Thursday, 14th of September, U.S Retail Sales – this data will give traders insights regarding the spending habits of U.S consumers, which is a key barometer for equity traders regarding consumer driven stocks, and also because an increase would underscore solid economic sentiment from the public.

Friday, 15th of September, China Industrial Production and Retail Sales – these two reports will provide additional insights about the Asian giant. Global investors continue to be concerned about the direction of the Chinese economy. Slight gains are forecast for both publications.

Friday, 15th of September, U.S University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment – the preliminary report is expected to have a reading of 69.2 which would be below the previous reading.

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Considerations for this Friday

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Considerations for this Friday

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Considerations 1st September 2023

10. Travel Alert: Surprise visit to Jeddah, Saudi Arabia for Israeli bound passenger jet.

9. Book: Machiavelli A Biography by Miles J. Unger.

8. Coup d’Etat: Gabon added to the growing African list.

7. Bitcoin: Rollercoaster prices in BTC/USD past 48 hours. Up 2,000.00, down 2,000.00.

6. China: Weakness in Yuan is concerning governments and financial institutions.

5. Market Shifts: U.S Treasury yields have decreased the past week.

4. USD and Gold: Greenback stubborn with slight weakness emerging, Gold steady.

3. U.S Data: Jobs numbers may rattle markets today and expose underlying outlooks.

2. Labor Day: Volumes could be light today with long U.S holiday weekend coming.

1. Trading Tip: Cautious trading likely today, expect volatility to increase next week.

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Considerations for this Friday

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Considerations for this Friday

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Considerations 25th August 2023

10. Behavioral Sentiment: Risk adverse conditions heightened again.

9. Book: Pioneering Portfolio Management by David F. Swenson.

8. Rugby: All Blacks vs. Springboks tonight at Twickenham.

7. Federal Reserve: Jackson Hole Symposium and Speeches.

6. Travel Tips: Stay away from Russian corporate jets with Wagner members flying aboard.

5. South Africa: What’s next after BRICS Summit, an end to loadshedding?

4. Cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin, Binance coin remain under pressure.

3. Germany data: Coming ifo Business Climate and GDP data.

2. U.S data: Yesterday’s mixed Durable Goods numbers.

1. USD: Another burst of strength yesterday.

postN44.1

Dog Days of Summer and a Return of Calm as Storms Threaten

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

Dog Days of Summer and a Return of Calm as Storms Threaten

With essentially two full weeks of trading until the end of August and the unofficial end of summer in sight, perhaps this week may be a good time for retail traders to be observers if they do not have the stomach for potentially noisy speeches and markets.

However, speculators who can block out media hyperbole and microphone soundbites from folks standing on podiums may find conditions rather attractive. As always outlook depends on perspective, time frames and managing risk. Behavioral sentiment has been rather chaotic the past month and some traders may suspect we are approaching the end of the loud spectacles of nervous drama in the markets.

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USD/ZAR One Year Chart as of 20th August 2023

The economic data this coming week should prove to be a rather mild schedule, but outside influences will certainly get publicity and get fanfare from talking heads who want 15 minutes of your attention. The BRICS Summit will get underway in Johannesburg, South Africa officially on the 22nd. Another big conference later this week will be the U.S Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole Symposium. Both events will produce plenty of conversations about inflation, economic stability and a more cohesive global cooperation monetarily. This will also create many raised eyebrows among traders who are skeptical about these type of events.

While leaders of China, Russia, India, Brasil and South Africa get together in Johannesburg, it is likely we will hear talk about potential BRICS expansion and the pursuit of a new unified currency which doesn’t rely upon the USD. However, in the background there is likely to be plenty of distraction because of China’s faltering economic data and Russia’s Ruble which has been impacted severely in the past month. Plenty of large rugs will be needed to hide the dust which threatens to make this BRICS event rather memorable.

Add the ongoing saga of Niger and the absence of a political solution for the world’s fourth largest producer of uranium as a potential flash point standing on the side of the stage waiting to make an appearance regarding Africa news. Perhaps it is too cynical to wonder if coordinated military action within Niger will await the end of the BRICS Summit. This so China and Russia are not given an opportunity on the ‘world stage’ as a united voice to offer their opinions regarding an intervention.

The Jackson Hole get together of global central bankers from the Fed, BoE, ECB, BoJ and others will certainly grab headlines late this week, but the script is mostly known regarding the rhetoric to come from the Federal Reserve’s annual event. Forex may move based on comments from the central bank chiefs as they speak towards the end of this week, but it is unlikely anything surprising is going to be heard. U.S Treasuries will remain a topic because of the ability to lock in a solid return over the mid-term compared to betting on the outcomes of the stock market, but this scenario has been playing out the past month. Investors should prepare for a long line of speeches regarding economic outlooks from central bank officials all week. Day traders should also remember that the chatter starts to be ‘tuned out’ as the speeches grow longer.

Traders looking for other outside influences may want to look at the cryptocurrency market where major assets have shown signs of struggling. Bitcoin and Binance coin could remain in the headlines for all the wrong reasons, if their prices continue to challenge important support levels and become more vulnerable.

Monday, 21st August, China Prime Rates – economic data from the nation has caused concerns that real estate problems are spilling over into the domestic consumer market. The interest rates China lends money to consumers is expected to be lowered to try and spark spending. Recent economic reports from China have been bad, and readers who believe this is merely ‘Western’ bias being reported should be careful to look for other sources to confirm data. Investment within the second biggest economy of the world has become tentative, because there is a fear the ‘official’ China numbers may be worse than those being reported.

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USD/JPY Six Months Chart as of 20th August 2023

Tuesday, 22nd August, Japan Consumer Price Index – the Bank of Japan report is expected to show a slight decline to the inflation numbers. Last month’s outcome of 3.0% is expected to lower and produce a 2.9% result. The USD/JPY could react momentarily to the outcome, the currency pair is near highs it hasn’t touched since November 2022.

Tuesday, 22nd August, U.S Existing Home Sales – the data is expected to show a slight decline of purchases. Mortgage prices continue to climb in the U.S and homeowners are less likely to desire taking on a new higher mortgage, this if they already have a lower mortgage locked in from a few years ago within a dwelling they already live.

Wednesday, 23rd August, Flash European Manufacturing and Services PMI – the reports will come from the E.U and U.K. The German and British outcomes will stir the Forex markets. The manufacturing data from Germany and Britain are forecast to be slightly negative.

Wednesday, 23rd of August, U.S Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI – the U.S reports are expected to show a decline in the manufacturing sector. If a negative result materializes, this could actually spark a selloff of the USD – if the financial markets have returned to calm waters by the middle of this week. Weaker numbers might be interpreted as another reason for the U.S Federal Reserve to remain neutral and why they should consider becoming dovish over the mid-term.

Thursday, 24th of August, U.S Durable Goods Orders – the core and broad numbers are anticipated to show declines. If the Durable Goods Orders numbers are worse than expected this could spark more USD selling, particularly if financial institutions are already calm and feel the data is another step to ‘lowering’ the Fed’s hawkish interest rate rhetoric. However, for the USD to weaken the markets will likely have needed to be tranquil beforehand, without major surprises having happened earlier in the week that may have escalated nervous behavioral sentiment in the broad markets.

Friday, 25th of August, Germany Business Climate and GDP – the ifo Business Climate report comes from a composite of manufacturers, wholesalers, and other enterprises and is expected to be lower than last month’s outcome. The Gross Domestic Product results are anticipated to show no changes, which would mean Germany’s economy remains in the doldrums and is flirting with recessionary pressures.

Friday, 25th of August, U.S University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment – this revised reading is expected to show U.S consumers remain steady without significant changes compared to the previous outcome.