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Anxiety and Surprising U.S Data for Day Traders to Consider

Anxiety and Surprising U.S Data for Day Traders to Consider

Global central banks stayed in their anticipated lanes last week as the Fed and ECB raised their key lending rates. The BoJ has admitted it is allowing its yield curve to increase, meaning the Japan government is cutting back on purchases of Japanese bonds. Forex produced anxiety and choppy results for day traders.

Gold 6 Months Chart as of 30 July 2023

Economic data from the U.S last week provided a strong Gross Domestic Product result on Thursday, and followed with weaker than expected Personal Consumption Expenditures and Personal Income statistics before going into the weekend. Meaning the U.S economy appears to be surprisingly solid, while inflation pressures do indicate they are in decline. The Forex market turned volatile on Thursday and Friday, gold which traded at nearly 1980.00 USD on Thursday went into the weekend near 1959.00.

VIX Index 1 Year Chart as of 30 July 2023

Stock markets in the U.S via the major indices continue to incrementally rise and folks waiting for a big sustained selloff are having their patience tested. Perceived volatility in U.S markets is very low and the VIX (Volatility Index) indicates many investors are not taking the time to hedge with options because their confidence is remarkably high. A cautious reminder for traders, one bad day could change all of the optimistic sentiment.

In the cryptocurrency world, folks should continue to keep their eyes on the Binance exchange and its Binance coin. Many digital assets seem to be suspiciously close to important support levels as this week begins and appear vulnerable.

Monday, 31st of July, China Manufacturing PMI – while U.S data surprisingly improves, China has not begun to show signs of a positive turnaround quite yet, and this reading is expected to be below last month’s outcome. China data is a solid barometer of global economic health and traders should give these results proper attention.

Monday, 31st of July, E.U Consumer Price Index Flash Estimates – the European CPI numbers are expected to come in slightly below the previous month’s reading. If for some reason these inflation numbers are higher than expected, this could cause some chaos briefly for the EUR/USD. A weaker number however offers no sound wagering basis for short-term day traders either. Behavioral sentiment appears to be ruling the EUR/USD landscape for the time being, and technical levels should be watched.

Tuesday, 1st of August, Australia Reserve Bank Cash Rate – the RBA is expected to follow in the footsteps of the Fed and ECB and raise its lending rate by 0.25%.

Tuesday, 1st of August, E.U Manufacturing PMI – Germany and France are anticipated to produce similar results to last month’s outcomes. Recessionary pressures are a concern in the E.U and better than expected numbers would be welcomed, but this may prove difficult to demonstrate as economic conditions remain challenging.

Tuesday, 1st of August, U.S ISM Manufacturing PMI – the results from the manufacturing sector in the States should be watched. A slight improvement is expected, but the reading is not expected to produce a wildly optimistic result. An outcome which slightly beats expectations, but is not too strong might make the USD slightly weaker. Global investment institutions are likely hoping for any signs that the Federal Reserve will have to become less aggressive. A lackluster to ‘fair’ ISM Manufacturing PMI result could be evidence larger Forex traders want to see if they are aiming for bearish momentum in the USD.

NZD/USD 3 Months Chart as of 30 July 2023

Wednesday, 2nd of August, New Zealand Employment Change – the jobs statistics are expected to show slightly weaker results from the nation. The NZD/USD remains within the lower elements of its long-term price range. There are many NZD/USD bullish traders waiting for a sustained reversal higher, but it is unlikely to be produced from these New Zealand jobs numbers.

Thursday, 3rd of August, U.K BoE Monetary Policy Summary and Official Bank Rate – the Bank of England remains in a difficult spot and it will likely raise interest rates by another 0.25%. Criticism of the Bank of England has been loud in Britain, but the BoE likely feels it has to remain in line with the Fed and ECB. Recessionary pressures continue in the U.K and inflation remains problematic. Concerns will be heard regarding property mortgages for home owners if the BoE hikes. The GBP/USD will certainly move depending on the rhetoric from the Monetary Policy Summary and talking points delivered by BoE Governor Andrew Bailey.

Friday, 4th of August, U.S Non-Farm Employment Change and Average Hourly Earnings – the jobs data parade will climax at the end of the week, this after starting on Wednesday via the ADP jobs numbers. Investors will watch the Non-Farm Employment Change data carefully and correlate them to the better than expected GDP results from the 27th of July. The wages data from the Average Hourly Earnings is expected to come in with a slight decrease. A weaker inflation result from the wages statistics could cause additional softness in the USD. However, recent data from the U.S has been hard to predict correctly, and day traders may want to sit on the sidelines until all the jobs numbers are digested.

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Summertime Behavioral Sentiment Game: Who Do You Trust?

Summertime Behavioral Sentiment Game: Who Do You Trust?

Have we started to reach a polite equilibrium within Forex, gold, equities and bonds for a moment? U.S CPI data just came in below expectations, the decrease of inflation pressures in the U.S will be welcomed. Price ranges are starting to show signs of polite trends in Forex and equities – there seems to be a recognition of basic ideas which are perhaps serving as factors that are ‘accepted’ in the broad markets. Please do not close your eyes for long, because conditions can change in a moments notice, but for the moment the USD is weaker.

Gold One Month Chart as of 12th July 2023

The Federal Reserve could still raise its Federal Funds Rate at the end of July, though today’s CPI data outcome will create headwinds against that notion. There has been a wide voice given by folks who say the Fed shouldn’t raise rates again, and that real inflation will start to come down and that it is doing so now. The CPI has shown a decrease in U.S inflation – a larger drop than anticipated, which will certainly spur on USD weakness today. This confirms – momentarily – many analysts inflation outlooks who work in financial institutions not related to the U.S Federal Reserve and have been saying price pressures will recede. Yet, inflation is not dead yet and may still be heard. Stagflation is a genuine concern.

Tomorrow’s U.S Producer Price Index will be another opportunity to stir sentiment. Remember folks, outlooks are often adjusted according to facts. But what are facts? Can we really trust them. What are leading indicators, what is data that looks forward instead of backwards – numbers are often offered as evidence but randomness often rules interpretations of data. How do acceptable outlooks really develop when data management and outlooks can change within split seconds depending on the team looking over the quantified math. Humans are naturally optimistic, even when the data is negative, this can lead to bias.

We are in an age when trading software is doing a majority of the large volume transactions, and has been coded by algos processed by quant teams in financial institutions. Do retail traders even have a chance in this type of environment? Yes, retail traders can still manage to find opportunities, but they need to combine technical perceptions with fundamental knowledge of data, and combine the two into a behavioral sentiment outlook depending on their time horizons.

Market dynamics and situations change a lot in the broad markets. Assets move depending on the bias of incoming data. Preconceived notions being acted on and then changing according to need can be done in microseconds because of existing trading technology that financial institutions use. Larger players have an advantage and they are not about to give this up. Timeframes are also different for big trading houses compared to small speculators. It is also important to stress institutional traders could care less about day traders in Forex.

GBP/USD One Month Chart as of 12th July 2023

We have finished nearly a month of summer trading and seem to be confronted by a question of who do we trust? Do we trust the U.S Federal Reserve and its decisions and outlooks? In my opinion, you shouldn’t. But you should also remember the old adage, do not fight the Fed. The U.S central bank is bigger than you and I.

Central banks work together and often coordinate their combined outlooks, while shadows cast from the ‘oversight’ of political leaders rhetoric are frequently given consideration by the Fed, BoE, ECB and BoJ officials even if they claim they are not listening. Inflation is not welcomed by central banks, but because they are largely reactive and not proactive the Fed and others sometimes look uncaring and like fools, while the public sometimes suffer.

Thus we sit and wait for central bank pronouncements, but for the moment we seem to have a good grasp regarding what they will say. And perhaps – for the moment, maybe that is why Forex, gold and equities are trading rather politely. We seem to think we know what is going to be said moving forward for the next few weeks and remainder of the summer – more of the same warnings and interest rate correlations sprinkled in via central bank diatribes.

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Risk Friday: Fear is a Terrible Thing to Waste

Risk Friday: Fear is a Terrible Thing to Waste

Behavioral sentiment in the broad markets took a turn for the worse yesterday among many major equity indices. This as financial institutions seemingly came to the short-term conclusion the Federal Reserve may actually have to raise interest rates again on the 26th of July, and possibly beyond. Meaning, the Fed might actually back up what it has been saying.

Yes, investors have been warned many times already by some analysts that the handwriting was on the wall regarding additional increases to the Federal Funds Rate, but it seems a fear of losing out has kept many market participants actively running forward with blinders on not cognizant of the Fed’s rhetoric.

Day traders should always be mindful of their emotions. While it is not good to trade based on emotions when involved in an active position, intuition and gut instinct sometimes can save you money when you decide to simply sit on the sidelines and watch the market action instead of participating. In other words, if you are nervous and your instinct is bothering you – do not attempt to enter the trade.

U.S Data Remains Rather Strong even as Inflation Boils

Yesterday’s better than expected jobs report via ADP helped create sparks early regarding U.S economic data continuing to show it is robust, but the ISM Services PMI threw gasoline onto the fire with a much better result of 53.9 compared to the estimated reading of only 51.3. While inflation simmers in the U.S, signs of limited growth abound too making stagflation a real danger.

Investors can now attain a yield around 4.995% on 2-year U.S government Treasuries. A gain of nearly 5% that is almost assured with very little costs regarding commission rates needing to be spent, looks like a solid short-term investment to many. Equity markets have a reason to feel spooked. If the U.S Fed raises the Federal Funds Rate which is now 5.25% to 5.50% at the end of July, and at the same time continues to speak in an aggressive manner about other potential hikes later this year, summer may lose its sense of tranquility for financial institutions.

Gold Five Day Chart as of 7th July 2023

Gold which was trading at nearly 1925.00 USD yesterday, suddenly fell to around the 1900.00 briefly in the wake of the better U.S economic data, showing investors are worried the USD has some additional strength to display potentially. Again, the results of intraday gyrations may not mean a lot to mid and long-term investors, but day traders speculating on the outcome of quick hitting results frequently get hurt by the bursts of volatile storms.

U.S Official Jobs Numbers Today and Anticipation

Adding another dose of intrigue to the day are the upcoming official jobs numbers from the U.S, including the Non-Farm Employment Change and the Average Hourly Earnings reports. The inflation data via the earnings statistics are anticipated to show a gain of 0.3%, if for some reason it comes in stronger than expected this could create more fireworks. Having said that, the Wall Street Journal reported yesterday that Americans appear to have stopped quitting their jobs in order to switch to similar competitive positions as much as they had been the past couple of years. Perhaps this signals wages are starting to cool or least will in the near-term.

Let’s also remember that yesterday’s selloff in equities may have been anticipating better Non-Farm Employment Change results today based on the ADP outcome Thursday, and other solid U.S data before like last week’s GDP gains. Day traders betting on quick hitting CFDs via their brokerage platforms should be careful today and listen to news regarding the U.S bonds market. Inexperienced speculators should try to understand the adage – buy the rumor and sell the fact. Meaning ‘smart money’ often acts before others and takes advantage of their outlooks regarding data.

Quick Warning on Binance and Cryptocurrencies for Gamblers

BNB/USD Three Month Chart as of 7th July 202

In a non-related subject, cryptocurrency traders seem to remain rather steady but should be nervous – if anyone is actually really trying to speculate in this endeavor besides Larry Fink of BlackRock currently, news regarding Binance remains troubling on the surface as legal clouds grow. Folks involved with the BNB coin should be careful. As one of the most ‘important’ crypto exchanges Binance’s legal problems moving forward could affect the prices of cryptocurrencies significantly. As of this writing BNB/USD is at nearly 233.00, and it should be noted Tether’s USDT appears to remain rather solid for the moment at 1.00. A look at the current three month chart of BNB/USD highlights its latest value struggles.

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Friday Barometer Regarding the BoE Decision and Gold Prices

Friday Barometer Regarding the BoE Decision and Gold Prices

The Bank of England’s rate hike of 0.50% cements the notion that global central banks remain steadfastly locked on inflation, and understand politically the implications on the public regarding higher consumer prices which are being experienced. The Bank of England ‘met’ before its Official Bank Rate announcement with corporate bank executives it was whispered, to discuss their concerns regarding the knock on affects of higher mortgage rates to come. However, this did not stop the BoE from being aggressive.

GBP/USD Three Month Chart as of 23rd June 2023

Is the BoE Move a Sign Regarding the Fed’s Next Decision?

The move by the BoE also is intriguing because the larger than expected hike puts into play the notion the U.S Fed may be raising the Federal Funds Rate in July. The reasoning is based on the idea the Bank of England wants to protect the British Pound from another interest rate hike from the Fed, thus ‘securing’ the value of GBP/USD Forex mechanics.

The U.S Federal Reserve, the BoE and ECB finally seem to have a grasp on import inflation implications. Although higher costs and dynamic pressures on exporting countries like China, India and others that face the gauntlet of these challenges remains critical, because these nations need to raise the costs of manufactured goods internationally when they sell.

Smart Money and the Value of Gold

Let’s talk about ‘smart money’ for a moment surrounding Gold – and please try to hold down your laughter – but the price of the precious metal is interesting and should be monitored even by folks who do not trade the commodity. Gold as of this morning is near the 1915.00 USD ratio.

Gold Six Month Chart as of 23rd June 2022

On the 4th of May the price of the precious metal momentarily challenged the 2080.00 level. On the 1st of June the price of the commodity was near 1985.00. Do you see a trend here? Please note, Gold isn’t going to zero.

The point to be made is that the build up in the price of the precious metal from the 22nd of November 2022 when Gold was around the 1625.00 USD per ounce level, until early May anticipated the U.S Federal Reserve was going to become more dovish regarding their interest rate polkicy. For consideration look at the price of the USD during this time too, against many major currencies – the value of the USD also started to come down.

‘Smart money’ is showing signs of nervousness certainly since the start of June that more hikes are feared from the Federal Reserve. However, the price of Gold and the USD are not correlating well at this moment. This is a potential sign that Gold and the USD are both within speculative trading zones in which financial institutions are seeking ‘true’ equilibrium and are not comfortable. Fragility in the financial marketplace is likely to be seen until the Federal Reserve Federal Funds Rate announcement late in July. Expect financial institutions to price in their outlooks respectively depending on their outlooks.

Gold and U.S Treasuries: Inverted Interest Rate Implications

Gold definitely fluctuates within daily trading conditions, it is a speculative commodity, but it is also a solid barometer of risk management among the elite. If financial institutions are in favor of buying items like U.S bonds because of their guaranteed short term interest payments (look at the fact U.S Treasuries are mostly inverted – meaning shorter term bond interest rates are paying higher returns compared to longer term bonds) instead of buying Gold as an investment tool.

The Gold and USD Forex dynamics tells us that investment institutions are still very nervous about the Fed potentially raising interest rates a couple of more times this year. July and late this year appear to be reasonable bets. This Fed consideration and concern remains legitimate while looking forward as long as inflation remains elevated in the U.S. However, the Federal Reserve must also feel comfortable they will not kill mid and small sized banks, which by now should have shifted their business practices allowing for slightly higher interest rates to be delivered.

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USD/INR: Elevated Range as Questions about Values Persists

USD/INR: Elevated Range as Questions about Values Persists

The USD/INR has traded the past week approximately between the 82.2200 and 82.7000 ratios. Plenty of discussion regarding what the Reserve Bank of India has been doing as they battle the strong USD has been whispered openly, and is being questioned from financial institutions and speculators. Day traders who have been trying to wager on the value of the Indian Rupee have likely found the waters difficult to swim. As of this writing the USD/INR is near 82.5200.

USD/INR Three Month Chart as of 8th June 2023

Last Wednesday’s sudden rhetoric, from two U.S Federal Reserve officials caused mayhem briefly within the USD/INR. The currency pair got hit after India’s official trading hours closed, and essentially moved in overseas accounts based on the spoken words from the two Fed members stating the U.S central bank should not raise the Federal Funds Rate on the 14th of June. These sudden Forex moves hurt many USD/INR speculators. After this rhetoric from the two well-regarded FOMC members, like clockwork U.S economic data provided a counter punch last Friday with better than anticipated Non-Farm Employment Change numbers, this while inflation results also remained persistent.

Three Month View of the USD/INR offers Sentiment Insights and perhaps Clues

The past three months of trading in the USD/INR have produced a rather rocky price trend. A low of nearly 81.5200 was seen on the 14th of April, which turned into a high of approximately 82.9000 on the 19th of May. Intriguingly while many USD/INR speculators may be looking at the U.S Federal Reserve and casting blame, questioning the potential interventions by the Reserve Bank of India remains relevant. The Reserve Bank of India has actually been rather tranquil regarding its use of interest rate hikes; it has not raised the key lending rate aggressively in India like many of its major global counterparts. Why is this?

Is there a potential the Reserve Bank of India and the government has wanted the Indian Rupee to get weaker? Deflating the Indian Rupee’s value in order to potentially create an unseen tax is considered an old trick by economists. This because some believe inflation is a way to tax people without actually raising interest rates, the deflated value of a currency makes it easier for governments to sometimes repay debt, based on the notion the money they are now using is cheaper compared to when the Indian Rupee’s value was better.

Where is the USD/INR Going to Go Next?

I am no economist; my specialty tends to be risk analysis. There is an old joke, ‘why did god create economists? To make weathermen look good.’ The point is that economists often get their outlooks wrong, but we cannot blame only economists for getting their outlooks wrong, many of us do. The USD/INR has a tough few days ahead, it must deal with nervous market sentiment generated from a lack of clarity via the U.S Federal Reserve. Looking for correlations in the Forex market is proving difficult for the moment for all short-term speculators. Choppy trading in the USD/INR has been noticeable the past few days, this Monday’s upwards trend has turned into near-term consolidated day trading. Other major currency pairs are turning in rather turbulent results also without a firm technical stance.

Gold Three Month Chart as of 8th of June 2023

After speaking with many associates in the financial sector the past week, it appears many people believe the Fed should stop raising interest rates for the time being. Some financial institutions seem to be leaning in this direction, but there are caution signs all over that warn about potential surprises from the U.S Federal Reserve.

Yesterday the Bank of Canada raised its Overnight Rate by another 0.25%, when most analysts believed they would pause. Another interesting sign is the current price of Gold near 1950.00. The recent lower price could indicate some financial houses believe the Federal Reserve may actually remain active regarding further interest rate hikes, this because the price of Gold has tended to rise when the perception existed the Federal Reserve is going to be dovish. Gold’s downward price action should raise suspicious eyebrows.

But then again, I am not an economist; I am merely a risk analyst. So my words to you are, be careful if you are wagering on the USD/INR before the U.S Federal Reserve’s pronouncements next Wednesday on the 14th of June.

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Spiral Downward of South African Rand as Confidence Weakens

Spiral Downward of South African Rand as Confidence Weakens

The USD/ZAR has hit a bad milestone today as the bullish trend of the currency pair has toppled the 19.00000 mark momentarily, this as the USD has shown weakness against many other major currencies in the past week because financial institutions are positioning for a more dovish tone from the U.S Federal Reserve as they wager the U.S central bank may pause its interest rate hikes. In other words, the South Africa Rand is trading in the wrong direction.

The USD/ZAR is now languishing near the 19.00000 ratio as behavioral sentiment continues to show signs of nervous exhaustion regarding the perceived political ineptness of the South African government. Nearly one month ago on the 14th of April, the USD/ZAR was slightly below 18.00000.

USD/ZAR One Month Chart as of 11th May 2023

South African Government is Perceived as Corrupt and Ineffective and this Hurts the USD/ZAR

The non-correlation of the USD/ZAR to the broader Forex market is not happening because financial institutions believe in the overall long-term strength of the USD, it is happening because dark shadows loom over the South African Rand. The darkness hovering over the Rand is occurring because of mismanagement within the South African political system, and it’s inability to deliver a reliable electricity supply to citizens and businesses domestically due to a combination of corruption and criminal activity.

The people of South Africa have plenty to be proud of because their country is one of the most beautiful in the world geographically, and it has abundant natural resources. The nation has been a pioneer regarding science and commercial enterprise in the past. However, political opportunism and neglect have led to a quagmire that has muddled the nation’s infrastructure into a nightmarish state. Loadshedding – which is the South Africa government’s term for rolling blackouts, continues to get worse and winter is approaching. Outages of electricity have steadily hit Stage 6 lately with worse loadshedding feared on the horizon. There looks to be little respite coming as electrical stoppages are happening two to three times a day, and communities are going without electrical power for up to four hours during each halt of energy. These rolling blackouts also happen daily, it is not like they are only happening once a week. Businesses of all sizes are being hurt because of a lack of production. Businesses that burn diesel via generators to power their enterprises are suffering financially due to the high costs and a dramatic loss of profits.

USD/ZAR One Year Chart as of 11th May 2023

Long-Term Outlook is in Question as USD/ZAR suffers from Political Peril

The loss of value in the USD/ZAR has been going on for a long time and no technical charts are inspiring confidence. The South African Rand which used to be considered among the best currencies within developing nations is now compared unfavorably. Mismanagement of the economy within South Africa has led the Rand to be associated to the likes of the Turkish Lira. Financial institutions have little reason to trust the effectiveness and long-term value of the South African Rand until concrete political changes are made, which end alleged corruption and cronyism and that seemingly look blindly on criminal activity within crucial infrastructures.

USD/ZAR Five Year Chart as of 11th May 2023

The South African Rand is not the Argentine Peso in terms of misdeeds and mismanagement, but there is a growing fear that political ineffectiveness, a lack of transparency and a poor reputation are making economic conditions worse. The last and only time the USD/ZAR traded above the 19.00000 level before was at the height of coronavirus. Yes, the value of the USD/ZAR improved from that apex of late March 2020, and the currency pair touched the 13.45000 ratio in late May of 2021. However, nearly two years later the USD/ZAR has returned to a value that shows a supreme lack of confidence exists regarding the outlook for the South Africa economy, this as Gold trades above 2000.00 USD per ounce.

 
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Forex, Interest Rates, the Fed and Conspiracy Politics

Forex, Interest Rates, the Fed and Conspiracy Politics

If you have been looking for road signs regarding what the U.S Federal Reserve is going to do next week and trying to get a feel for its rhetoric which will be delivered in the FOMC Statement on the 3rd of May, this week’s U.S data outcomes should be monitored. And as of now the data might be suggesting the Fed will remain aggressive in June.

GBP/USD One Month Chart

A Fed Funds Rate hike is going to happen on the 3rd of May unless there is a financial catastrophe that suddenly emerges that is nearly cataclysmic. While First Republic Bank wobbling is certainly a problem (Mark Zuckerberg is supposedly a rather large client of the bank), if this entity fails completely it may not cause massive bedlam. The stock has dropped violently, so a collapse should not be a surprise. No, it will not be welcome, but it should not be an unexpected calamity.

The question is how much the U.S government will protect depositors? The large clients who are not insured above the standard 250k USD ratio will want the same benefits that clients of Silicon Valley Bank received in March. Should they be rewarded the same way? The American public may not like the idea of another bailout for the deep pocketed, but there may not be much they can do about it, except to vote the politicians out, but who do you exactly punish?

First Republic Bank – One Month Chart as of 27th April 2023

What a collapse of First Republic Bank will do is hurt the corporate bond sector in banking again, because it is likely holders of these bonds will be put at the back of the line once again if the U.S government decides to protect big depositors of millions of dollars like Zuckerberg, before it protects bond holders.

U.S Data in Focus and the Allure of a Black Dress with Growth

But I digress, yesterday’s Core Durable Goods Orders statistics came in better than expected. Today Advance GDP will come from the U.S and if this number produces an increase instead of a downturn, the U.S Federal Reserve will have more ammunition to remain aggressive regarding interest rate hike rhetoric. An increase of 0.25% has been calculated into Forex for next week. The USD has done rather well recently, but what is of intrigue is the perception the USD is doing well after the financial markets have seemingly priced in a rate hike on the 3rd of May. Meaning, typically the USD would have started to ebb a bit lower after financial houses put their interest rate outlook into their Forex positions. Yesterday’s better than expected Core Durable Goods Orders leaves the door open for another hike on June the 14th to be precise.

While Core Durable Goods Orders isn’t a sexy statistic, GDP numbers frequently are, and if the growth numbers show up with a stunning black dress on with alluring ‘expansion’ it could send large speculators into a tizzy and make them believe the Fed could increase by another quarter of a point in June. The Fed during its FOMC Statement next week will certainly try to help financial institutions anticipate outlook. The Fed doesn’t need to hold the hand of investors, but it often treats them like children.

Financial houses had largely believed the Fed would hike in May and might raise in June. The notion that a June increase is certain would then put the focus back on the long-term again, and Forex could then break free of its rather consolidated incremental USD strength seen the past couple of weeks. Inflation remains a drum beat that is steady. And while today’s GDP numbers will be important. Tomorrow PCE inflation statistics will be the final nail in the coffin. If growth is stronger than expected today, and inflation numbers remain stubborn tomorrow, the Fed would certainly consider another June increase valid.

On the bright side for day traders is that the cautious choppy air which has circulated the past couple of weeks in Forex is almost done. While steady trends may not reappear for a while, at least near-term outlook will have more clarity by this time next week.

Big Institutions Have Long Term Outlooks and Treat Trading Conditions Differently

Long term outlook is another game as day traders should know and one they cannot easily participate. Long term investors have the money to specialize in assets which are not expecting profits today, but instead have a larger time frame for making money. Deep pockets, patience and the need for less leverage help financial institutions trade in a more stable manner, frequently putting the ‘odds’ in their favor.

The price of Crude Oil is actually behaving politely in recent trading, and its ability to find a mid 70.00’s USD price range is interesting and may help inflation move lower if it can be sustained. If supply of goods can adequately stabilize and global logistics costs come down, inflation could decrease. These factors are part of the long term perspective of financial institutions. Day traders may want to consider this because it could affect behavioral sentiment moving forward.

Higher interest rates from the Fed are causing other currencies to loss value and this has caused increased costs for international manufacturing companies located outside the U.S which frequently have to buy commodities in USD from their converted domestic currencies, this causes inflation. This is a factor not spoken about enough and traders need to consider this within their perspectives too.

The Fed and Perhaps a Conspiracy Theory

If the Fed actually starts to decrease its interest rates, it would help other currencies stabilize. And yes, if the Fed stops increasing interest rates it may actually help weaken global inflation. The Fed has caused import inflation to occur into the U.S. Are they aware of that? It is a good question. The likelihood is a yes, and it has been disregarded, but why? Perhaps there is another reason; does the U.S Fed and U.S government want to cause inflation globally to strike politically at some competitors? This is a different topic………kind of. Conspiracy theory.

While insight regarding the dialogues between the Federal Reserve and U.S government is certainly above my pay grade, one has to wonder about considerations regarding inflation and a stronger USD and its potential effect on China. The Fed increases may be a way of trying to inflict harm economically and in a subtle manner, but this cannot be proven. Perhaps the Fed is unaware of the global conflict being waged.

On another note, Gold remains near 2000.00 an ounce – almost steadily, displaying a certain amount of cautious behavior.

Gold One Month Chart

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Quick Thoughts for Friday 21st April

Quick Thoughts for Friday 21st April

It appears the broad financial markets are producing rather cautious price ranges which day traders should be wary of and this could continue until the 3rd of May. The Federal Reserve will release its FOMC Statement and Federal Funds Rate on Wednesday the 3rd of May. It is likely a quarter of a basis point will be added then, meaning an increase of another 0.25%. The worry for financial institutions is the potential for another Federal Funds hike in June and unease regarding the possible move.

Choppy markets are also happening because of a lack of major U.S economic data the past few days, which has created an air of uncertainty and undefined trends in many assets.

The difficulty of finding a defined trend for day traders can cause them to get eaten alive. Skittish conditions are not good for a majority of retail Forex and CFD traders – and plays into the fact 90% of retail speculators are eventually wiped out. An absence of deep pockets to withstand volatility because leverage is being used too excessively, and an inability to digest overnight ‘carrying charges’ which must be factored in too as ‘costs of trading’ also causes money to disappear – although your broker might try to ‘sell’ this as part of your learning curve while they try to convince you to trade again.

Next week the U.S will see the CB Consumer Confidence report on Tuesday the 25th of April, Thursday will have Advanced GDP and Friday will finish with inflation data. However, it is the week afterwards which is already a large focus. Yes, corporate earnings are being published today and in the coming week too, but many eyes are on the U.S Federal Reserve. Clarity on interest rates is what is desired.

Gold price the past month of trading as of 21st of April 2023

If you are looking for evidence regarding what ‘smart money’ may be doing, it should be noted the price of Gold remains hovering around 2000.00 USD per ounce. Suddenly the price of Gold has become almost calm, please do not expect this to continue. The rather tight and ‘high’ price range of the precious metal is a potential sign that financial folks still believe that the U.S Fed may remain semi-aggressive in the mid-term, while ‘hoping’ over the long-term lower interest rates are coming.

As traders should know by now, nothing is guaranteed. Trying to understand behavioral sentiment helps.