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Hard Truth: No Secret Sauce, A Possibly Unfriendly Reminder

by with No Comment AMT MarketsAssetsFeatured Highlights

Hard Truth: No Secret Sauce, A Possibly Unfriendly Reminder

Day traders face constant battles. Choppy conditions in markets lead many salespeople within brokerage firms to proclaim the ability to take advantage of technical shifts to their clients, but it is much easier to demonstrate what has taken place before compared to what is going to happen next. Technical trading via charts often looks good for those offering its charms until reality bites.

Day traders also have the disadvantage of fighting large market institutional forces that have completely different timeframes, deeper pockets, and perhaps even a fair amount of analyses they can use to validate their reasons for taking a position – not necessarily a correct position – but enough to provide insurance regarding their decision making.

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S&P 500 One Year Chart as of 22nd August 2025

Institutional traders can fall back on the analyses they have at their disposal and point to it as the reason why they made a trade. Literally giving them an excuse to explain why things went wrong, so they can tell inquiring management when needed, this in order to protect their miscues. Institutional players do not get fired easily from their positions, they usually just wait a few years and shift to another company when too many bad trades have been made – that is a dirty little secret in the trading world.

Comparatively, day traders simply blow out their own accounts while losing money. Yes, sometimes they have to explain to their romantic partner why they can’t go on the trip they had been planning because there is a sudden lack of funds. Hopefully they didn’t wipe out too much money that they may have borrowed from family or friends, this via ambitions and proclamations that a coming trade was a once in a lifetime opportunity.

But wait, yes, there are speculators and large traders who do make money. These are the folks many allude to who are – in many peoples’ minds – sitting on a yacht in a lovely ocean locale and enjoying the fruits of their labors. They do exists and we should acknowledge this, even if we sometimes think they are merely lucky and one day will face a losing streak.

However, many of these anointed winners do not exists either. Beware of experts ladies and gentlemen. Influencers are often selling a dream they know a day trader desires. Commissions drive the brokerage business. Unfortunately, it is seldom profits made by an emerging victorious crowd via newly minted speculators that make brokerages money.

I am frequently warned that this is not what day traders want to read. They do not want to be reminded that 90% of their group usually loses most of their money, or at a minimum walks away with less money than they started. The U.S Fed’s Jackson Hole Symposium is now underway in Wyoming. Yet, most day traders will only be able to take advantage of this event by trying to ride on the sentiment tides created by large institutional traders in Forex. The headline: Fed Rhetoric and Jackson Hole, will be the talking point of the media today.

However wait a moment please, the retail brokerage business in the States must be pointed out as a reason for some positive momentum in the major U.S indices the past handful of years and needs to be watched regarding its sentiment. Reddit, X, Instagram, Quora and other social media sites can be monitored to gather this info. Behavioral sentiment is becoming important in the markets. While some institutional investors are showing caution via inquiries (polling) and actual market positions, some public cash appears to be supporting the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and Dow Jones 30 via purchases through reputable brokers who do buy the actual asset.

That is a contradiction of sorts compared to what has been written in previous paragraphs, but then again this is trading (and investing) we are discussing, so there are no straight lines, and often complexity rules. Perhaps you noticed that I didn’t say, institutional players are smarter than day traders. In many cases institutions and their managers merely have more money to wager with, and can do this without too much leverage and over much longer timeframes – giving them the ability to ride out financial storms and survive.

Under the current market circumstances the Fed is expected to cut interest rates in September by 25 basis points. But the U.S central bank is going to face a possible battle via murky data that will have to be factored into October, November and decisions beyond, meaning caution prevails. Trading choppiness in Forex will continue in the near term. The possibility that financial institutions may believe current pricing represents fair value is legitimate.

Let’s remember that the movements in Forex, stocks and indices, commodities, bonds and other assets always appear more volatile for smaller traders, because intraday price action and the absurd amount of leverage being used by many folks often leads to dangerous speculative circumstances.

Traders need patience, shouldn’t use too much leverage and allow for the ability to walk away from a losing trade with limited losses. Leaving enough cash in your account to participate again later can lead to other opportunities. There are no guarantees in trading. Good trading discipline is essential.

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Has a Great Selloff Begun? The Fed Holds a Crucial Card

by with No Comment AMT MarketsAssetsFeatured Highlights

Has a Great Selloff Begun? The Fed Holds a Crucial Card

Once upon a time the Federal Reserve caused a massive amount of fear to simmer and then boil over in the global market place but this is no fairy tale, the date was the 5th of August 2024 to be exact. However, the trigger causing events to unfold was pulled on Thursday the 31st of July. The Bank of Japan increased their policy rate to 0.25%, which was an increase of 0.15%. Then later on the same day the U.S Fed published a cautious sounding FOMC Statement followed by an inconclusive Press Conference, which left investors scratching their heads.

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Nikkei 225 Three Month Chart as of 4th September 2024

Markets started to react with scorn on Friday the the 1st of August, particularly when the U.S jobs numbers showed a big miss with the Non-Farm Employment Change numbers, and also a lower than anticipated Average Hourly Earnings report was produced. Because Japan was essentially closed for equity trading when the U.S jobs data was released late on Friday, the Nikkei 225 responded with fury on the 5th of August. Global markets essentially crumbled over the next twelve hours as a massive selloff was sparked.

Some analysts noted the move lower in equity indices was an overreaction and the wild Forex trading would calm down, and this began quite predictably on the 6th of August. In essence the bad jobs numbers from the U.S proved the Federal Reserve was being too cautious and would need to begin sounding more aggressive regarding interest rate cuts. This dynamic played out when Fed Chairman Jerome Powell made his Jackson Hole Symposium speech on the 23rd of August and admitted the Fed would have to begin cutting interest rates – and he seemed to indicate the use of a plural regarding Federal Funds Rate cuts. This dynamic essentially confirmed what most financial institutions had bet on starting in late July via Forex. Equity indices which were able to recover plenty of lost ground after the 5th of August, also built up more momentum per Powell’s rhetoric at Jackson Hole.

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USD Cash Index Three Month Chart as of 4th September 2024

However, Powell while sounding more dovish did not say how much the Fed would cut by in September. And based on the history of the Fed’s rather cautious and very passive monetary policy over the past handful of years, many financial institutions likely felt a cautious outlook should include a 0.25% cut on the 18th of September and then another 0.25% move lower in November. In the last week of August – yes, last week – equity markets started to show signs of nervousness again and the USD began to produce choppy trading before going into the Labor Day holiday.

Yesterday’s large selloff in assets has sparked more worries. While it is clear U.S inflation data has shown signs of erosion, the Federal Reserve has not indicated in any form that a Federal Funds Rate cut of more than 0.25% should be expected in two weeks. And perhaps not so coincidentally, the U.S Non-Farm Employment Change and Average Hourly Earnings data will be published this Friday. The outcome of these two reports will shake the ground for investors and financial institutions may be positioning for the drama.

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Nvidia Three Month Chart as of 4th September 2024

An interesting three month barometer looking backwards has been created by Nvidia which has been choppy. While it remains only a ‘stock’, the company’s earnings and outlook are firmly on center stage for many investors. Nvidia has soared in value the past year. While some may feel that the asset is within a bubble, the company continues to post impressive earnings and its outlook appears bright as new software and hardware relies upon its products and development promises. Some analysts have said that earnings reports from Nvidia are now just as important as U.S economic data like inflation and jobs numbers. However, that is overstated, but let there be no doubt that Nvidia’s trading results over the next six months will probably tell us a lot about global market conditions and behavioral sentiment within financial institutions.

Day traders should not panic, they have the capability of watching from the sidelines if they choose over the next few days. The USD is still standing on weaker legs and Gold remains near 2,500.00 USD. Investors who have long-term holdings will certainly be nervous and want to make sure their mid-term yield perspectives are alright and their long-term targets are safe. Speculators small and large know the Fed will definitely cut the Federal Funds Rate in September. Yet, the trillion dollar question is if the Fed will only cut by 0.25%?

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Gold Three Month Chart as of 4th September 2024

If the U.S jobs numbers this Friday come in below anticipated results once again, the Fed should strongly consider a 0.50% basis cut to the Federal Funds Rate on the 18th, that is what financial institutions would certainly like to see. They should also consider coming out with a brief statement this Friday to make sure investors know that a more aggressive stance will be taken if the jobs numbers are weak. However, as long time day traders and investors know, it is not in the Fed’s nature to grab the microphone loudly, unless a seismic event is taking place in the world and inflicting harm on the financial markets. Are investors now trying to warn the U.S Federal Reserve that they will ignite a major selloff unless the Fed becomes more aggressive?

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Summer Optimism as Forex and Equities Focus on Fall Outlooks

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

Summer Optimism as Forex and Equities Focus on Fall Outlooks

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell admitted the obvious at the Kansas City’s Fed’s Jackson Hole Symposium last Friday. The realization the U.S Federal Reserve is going to cut interest rates confirmed what many financial institutions had positioned their trading desks for via forward cash Forex contracts over the past month.

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USD Cash Index One Year Chart on the 27th August 2024

The USD has been expected to grow weaker by many people because most knew the Fed would have to state a September rate cut would be delivered. The question that was also somewhat answered is the notion if the Fed will also cut in November. Though Powell certainly did not say a rate cut would happen in November, his rhetoric made it clear the Federal Reserve is considering a dovish perspective which could translate into additional cuts down the road.

The Fed has been criticized for being too passive and while Powell can be congratulated for his rather unemotional Federal Reserve leadership, he and the Fed can certainly be faulted for not reacting quickly enough to ‘transitory’ inflation and then not responding until this past weekend to the need for cutting interest rates with dovish rhetoric. Let’s also remember the U.S Treasury (government) is on the line to pay exorbitant costs for debt repayments because of bad U.S fiscal policy.

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As an interesting related side note, the head of the Brazilian Central Bank, Roberto Campos Neto, made a strong appeal for governments to be fiscally responsible while speaking at the Jackson Hole Symposium this past weekend. While he could have been talking to any number of nations regarding spending, his points were obviously meant to highlight his disagreements with the Brazilian government led by Lula da Silva and the Workers Party. Roberto Campos-Neto stated that approximately 50,000,000 (yes, million) people in Brazil receive government allowances, while only about 43,000,000 people are earning money via employment and business enterprises. Traders who want to keep an eye on the USD/BRL this week may be entertained by the potential volatility within the currency pair which is trading a hair below 5.5000 before it opens today. The USD/BRL has certainly not been correlating to broad Forex USD centric weakness, and demonstrates the internal domestic fight between Lula da Silva and the Brazilian Central Bank regarding fiscal policy.

Jobs data from the U.S has continued to turn negative, particularly via revised reports which are being published rather ‘quietly’ as election season approaches. Yet, financial institutions have been aware of the weaker jobs numbers. While the poor jobs numbers combined with eroding inflation is good for USD centric weakness due to the knowledge the Fed will have to reverse from its rather high interest rates, the question becomes how much per the financial institutions selling of the USD has been acted upon in Forex. Is the USD oversold for the time being? It depends on trading timeframes certainly.

Weaker USD centric positions will need more impetus for further bearish trajectories to be seen near-term. Financial institutions may believe equilibrium is being approached, this because it appears interest rate cuts equaling a 0.50% decline seem to have been factored into Forex. Will the Federal Reserve be put into a position in which they will be able to cut by a full basis point (-1.00%) over the next six months?

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Gold Six Month Chart on the 27th of August 2024

Gold is trading near 2,500.00 plus at the time of this writing. Gold has touched higher levels in the past week and is getting a round of applause from its throngs of believers who proclaim the precious metal the ultimate safe haven against inflation and erosion fears via fiat currencies – including the USD. As a reminder, Bitcoin is highly speculative and doesn’t have the historical (thousands of years) track record that gold has acquired.

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GBP/USD Five Year Chart on the 27th of August 2024

The EUR and GBP are traversing higher territories not seen in a while. The EUR/USD is near the 1.11700 level, which was last traded in July of 2023, and it has been since 2022 that sustained prices above this current realm have been traded. The GBP/USD is near 1.32000 and is within a value ratio last seen in March of 2022. Central banks will remain in focus as summer ends and the fall trading season gets underway. The ECB will release their Main Refinancing Rate on the 12th of September, the Fed will present the Federal Funds Rate on the 18th, and the BoE will follow suit with the Official Bank Rate on the 19th.

However, those September dates are still a few weeks away and financial institutions do have data this week which could stir Forex, equity indices and U.S Treasuries in the near-term. Day traders often do not have the ability to rely upon mid and long-term outlooks, and instead have to be content with trying to ride the momentum trends being caused by larger players. While the USD weaker outlook is tempting to rely upon, speculators who are looking for quick hitting wagers need to judge technical charts and try to grasp existing behavioral sentiment which can shift rapidly depending on lengths of time.

Traders should remember the U.S will celebrate its Labor Day holiday next Monday, which sets the stage for potential sudden volatility to flourish before big financial institutions in the States leave for their long weekend. The last week of August should be rather tranquil. Certainly most long-term investors feel as if they have more clarity regarding interest rates and will be able to relax. The hope is that the current calm is not the quiet before the storm due to lingering political issues in the U.S, France and elsewhere. And that escalation of the Ukrainian and Russia war, and the Middle East conflict do not cause sudden surges of bedlam.

Economic data events the remainder of this week that should be given consideration includes the U.S CB Consumer Sentiment reading today. Yesterday’s U.S Durable Goods Orders came in with mixed results as the Core number fell by minus -0.2%, but the broad number came in with a substantial gain of 9.9%.

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USD/JPY Three Month Chart on the 27th of August 2024

The Bank of Japan has published their Core CPI data today and the outcome came in below expectations with a gain of 1.8% compared to the estimate of 2.1%. The USD/JPY is trading near 144.790 at the time of this writing as it continues to show bearish tendencies. The Bank of Japan which was heavily criticized in many circles may actually be achieving what they have planned, this as they have tried to stimulate stronger export and confront inflation. Their battle is not over yet.

Australian CPI data will be published on Wednesday. And on Thursday, German Preliminary Consumer Price Index numbers will be released. The EUR/USD could react to this report, but the European Single Currency remains highly USD centric. Which sets the table for the U.S Prelim Gross Domestic Product report also on Thursday. The growth number from the U.S could diminish selling considerations for the USD if the report comes in stronger than expected. However, the GDP Price Index and weekly Unemployment Claims from the U.S could also impact short-term behavioral sentiment and cause a bit of turbulence if negative results are published.

Friday will see more CPI numbers from Japan, CPI and GDP numbers from France, and GDP data from Canada. But before going into the long holiday weekend the U.S will present one more major report with its Core PCE Price Index and the monthly statistic is expected to show a slight gain of 0.2%.

China watchers will get Manufacturing PMI numbers early on Saturday. Recent China data continues to show signs of economic stress regarding foreign investment, domestic consumer spending, and deflationary results. Buyers beware.

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Rays of Light for 23rd of August

by with No Comment AMT MarketsArtificial IntelligenceFeatured Highlights

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Rays of Light for 23rd of August

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10. Word of the Day: Like crepuscular animals which are active during twilight, large market players are ruminating as their summer hiatus draws to an end over the next week and a half. Plans for coming hunts are being formulated as leisure concludes for financial institutions preparing to work in the shadows.

9. Scrolling Failures: Lack of solid results on search engines are becoming a growing annoyance. Is it just us? An abundance of poor information via defined searches on the internet and finding what is sought is becoming increasingly problematic. Is AI being allowed to do too much while still too dumb? AI doesn’t know when it is wrong. Competitors to Google and others are sought.

8. How Dare Us: The postponement of imposed dates regarding energy policy changes are multiplying. The end for the classical use of oil, coal and nuclear is not near. Efficient power is evolving, but this will have to include ‘antique’ generation and grids. The demand for electric vehicles are being confronted with declining sales via U.S consumers. Tangible technology needs precise planning, not apocalyptic rhetoric which tries to scare people.

7. Middle East Calm: The storm is being limited within a tea cup for the moment. The potential for a dangerous boiling painful mess still exists. ‘Serenity now’ remains a mantra for those who need to pay attention as chagrin and anxiousness mix.

6. Fed Retreat: The FOMC Meeting Minutes released this week showed some Fed members remained cautious, while others banged the drum louder regarding interest rate cuts. However, a Fed Funds Rate reduction is almost a 100% certainty for the 18th of September. The question now is what the Fed will do in November. Fed Chairman Powell and a slew of other renowned global central bankers will speak today and tomorrow at the Jackson Hole Symposium. Financial institutions largely believe they know what is going to be said, but comments from Bank of Japan and Brazilian leadership could prove to be informative and entertaining for central bank nerds. Monday could be volatile for USD/BRL traders.

5. VIX: The CBOE’s Volatility Index climbed to the 56 vicinity on the 5th of August as panic grew via widespread overreactions to hyperbole ripping through the markets. The fear gauge is near the 17.55 ratio as of this writing. Market calm has resumed across the board as financial institutions and day traders have been able to achieve a pleasant tone again. Traders who use the VIX as a template regarding the potential of risks suddenly cascading into assets should keep their eyes on the index, which went to a low around the 14.45 mark on Monday. Yet, the slight incremental climb the past few days could be coming from folks still speculating on volatility which may not develop near-term.

4. Barometers: Gold is lingering slightly below 2,500.00 for the moment, this after having achieved a record high on Tuesday when it touched the 2532.00 apex. WTI Crude Oil is near 74.00 USD per barrel and is maintaining a polite value range. Speculatively, Cocoa is again above 9,000 USD per ton and Bitcoin has fought its way above 61,000 this morning. Risk appetite remains stable for the moment.

3. Forex: USD/JPY, EUR/USD, even the USD/ZAR have been able to hold onto their recent trends as USD centric weakness remains viable. Traders who were looking for huge moves in FX this week have likely been disappointed. Retail speculators need to understand financial institutions have been positioning for a weaker USD since the tail end of July. Market players may be quite pleased regarding current Forex equilibrium, which may allow technical traders the ability to take advantage of existing behavioral sentiment, this as reversals flourish and the next big wave of impetus is awaited. Next Thursday’s U.S Preliminary GDP numbers may deliver some noise.

2. Cassandras: Market experts who proclaimed a long-term stock market crash in early August have crawled back into their caves to take cover and percolate their next fear mongering tactics. This after the latest round of predicted catastrophes have vanished. While the major U.S stock indices are not at record highs, they have recovered plenty of lost ground and appear ready for more days in the sun.

1. Political Winds: The curtain closed on the Democratic National Convention in Chicago last night without a serious hiccup. Kamala Harris and Donald Trump now enter a crucial phase of campaigning, and will get plenty of attention as they go into attack mode. The next big event for Harris and Trump will be their televised debate on the 10th of September. Will the outcome prove to be a devastating storm for one of the candidates?

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Tranquility: Forex, Equities and Treasury Yields Drama-Free

by with No Comment AMT MarketsAssetsFeatured Highlights

Tranquility: Forex, Equities and Treasury Yields Drama-Free

Sometimes no news is welcome. The markets though not devoid of drama, have been relatively tranquil. It is obviously summer in the northern hemisphere which helps bring about quiet, this since many ‘active’ market participants are off vacationing having been allowed to go on holiday. The implosion in the markets on the 5th of August after the dangerous riptides created by the combination of the Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan have certainly eased and evidence of the chaos is fading. Retail traders who are always looking at charts and for opportunities may have even been able to rest too the past week and a half.

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USD/JPY Three Month Chart as of 20th August 2024

The USD/JPY as of this moment is near 147.185. The Nikkei 225 has recovered lost ground from over-reactive selling on the 5th of August. The value of the Japanese equity index is within extremely intriguing territory as financial institutions are clearly taking a wait and see approach regarding more BoJ and Fed rhetoric, combined with fundamental analysis of Japan’s economy and their companies in consideration. It is a healthy market dynamic, particularly via a notion the Nikkei 225 having reached an early August equilibrium is a solid result, this if you have a long-term viewpoint.

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Nikkei 225 Three Month Chart as of 20th August 2024

The GBP/USD, EUR/USD, USD/SGD have all seen better results for traders who have been wagering on USD centric weakness. Even the USD/ZAR has produced a solid trajectory. U.S Treasuries yields are falling.

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Gold Six Month Chart as of 20th August 2024

Yes, day traders definitely have different approaches compared to long-term investors, but if a speculator who is accustomed to quick trades synthesizes an outlook using the behavioral sentiment of long-term institutional players, they might find it helps build some foundations which help perceptions when deciding what to pursue. The use of barometers is always good too, this often gives a trader insights regarding market mood even if it is not an asset class they want to pursue. Gold is within record territory as it hovers around 2,500.00 USD per ounce.

Investors can argue all day and night about interpretations regarding results. The trading within gold the past six months, even since November of 2022 opens doors to a vast amount of complex explanations and narratives. They are too numerous to argue here, but the ability of the precious metal to march higher should continue to be watched. The recent surge higher since the end of June suggests – but it is again, only an explanation after the results have been seen – that gold traders believed the Federal Reserve would have to eventually capitulate and stop behaving hawkish about interest rates.

And this brings us squarely to this weeks events. Yes, the DNC is underway in Chicago and hopefully it provides a rather calm atmosphere free of political chaos via unwanted demonstrators. If investors can focus on the Fed’s FOMC Meeting Minutes report which will be published on Wednesday this would be good.

Because the Fed refused to sound dovish in their last FOMC Statement this created the potential for massive retaliation by institutional traders, and when coupled with the BoJ hike and their rhetoric, market turmoil in Japan and globally promptly ensued for a few days. However, because of recent inflation data again highlighting U.S prices via Producer Price Index are stable and decreasing in some sectors, and CPI has continued to come in below anticipated results, investors again firmly believe the Federal Reserve will definitely cut the Fed Funds Rate by at least 0.25% in September, and may be in a position to cut in November. Thus, the weakness and volatility of the USD which is clear to see via the USD Cash Index results.

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USD Cash Index Three Month Chart as of 20th August 2024

Yet and potentially amusing tomorrow, the Fed’s FOMC Meeting Minutes may simply restate the cautious and very passive rhetoric from the last FOMC Statement. This because the Meeting Minutes are a reflection on thoughts shared at the Fed meeting, and we know what that outcome was already. Meaning tomorrow’s publication may scare some investors, but it shouldn’t. Tomorrow’s Fed paper may prove to be a non-event.

This sets the table for the Jackson Hole Symposium in Wyoming which starts on Thursday to produce a myriad of central banker statements led by Jerome Powell and his counterparts from the European Central Bank, Bank of Japan and Bank of England. The event is likely going to be important, but much of the talk which occurs in closed meetings is unlikely going to be made public.

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Plenty of Data from the U.S and China Should be Anticipated

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

Plenty of Data from the U.S and China Should be Anticipated

As the last week of August trading gets ready to begin, day traders may be glad to put the past month behind. The BRICS Summit and Jackson Hole Symposium delivered soundbites as promised last week, but there were few surprises. Forex, equities and commodities have been supplying a bumpy road for a while and may continue to do so.

Behavioral sentiment in the broad markets remains fragile, this as short-term U.S Treasuries continue to allure institutional players looking for solid returns. Some well known market players continue to issue cautious words regarding U.S equities, but the three major indices are still near mid-term highs. We have yet to experience a blood curdling selloff in the U.S equity markets. This maybe producing choppy results for some day traders pursuing CFDs while betting against higher moves.

Which brings up the question, which quantified analysis do you want to act upon? While the major U.S indices are up, a lot of the market action in these indices are driven by the ‘top performers’ which have ‘floated the boat’ while many other stocks have not performed handsomely.

Retail traders who are wagering on daily fluctuations need to understand there is a vast difference between short-term speculative positions and long-term investments. Hence the reason day traders are reminded to only bet money on what can be lost without a great deal of discomfort. Speculation should only be done with a very limited amount of cash, because day trading never offers guaranteed profits.

The next handful of days will deliver plenty of important data. The question is how financial institutions will react as they weigh the coming results against their own sentiment and outlooks regarding mid-term interest rates via the U.S Federal Reserve’s rhetoric. Market nervousness remains on edge as more tranquil days are certainly sought via risk adverse financial decisions.

The cryptocurrency market should be watched carefully by participants within its volatile assets. Bitcoin continues to trade near the 26,000.00 level and this is considered important support by many. And Binance coin has failed to inspire a sustained upwards reversal as Binance exchange remains under legal and regulatory shadows.

Traders are also advised to note the U.S will be on holiday on the 4th of September, the coming long holiday weekend could spark rather dynamic market action Thursday and Friday as financial institutions trade in advance of Labor Day.

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AUD/USD One Year Chart as of 27th August 2023

Monday, 28th of August, Australia Retail Sales – the numbers will cause a reaction in the AUD/USD and the result is expected to be slightly better than last month’s outcome. The AUD/USD is near important long-term lows.

Tuesday, 29th of August, U.S Consumer Confidence via The Conference Board – the anticipated result is lower than last month’s reading. However, the past three months have done better than expected, which may put some analysts on edge before the publication.

Wednesday, 30th of August, Germany Preliminary Consumer Price Index – the inflation numbers are expected to match last month’s gain of 0.3%. The EUR/USD will react to the outcome with momentary volatility. German economic data has been a concern in the European Union for a handful of months.

Wednesday, 30th of August, U.S Preliminary Gross Domestic Product and GDP Price Index – the numbers from the GDP reports will be watched by most financial institutions. Last month’s numbers surprised traders, this as growth remained quietly stubborn and inflation crept higher. The USD has been a powerhouse against the GBP and EUR recently. If these GDP reports surprise to the upside again, this could spark more buying of U.S Treasuries which could create additional strength in the USD.

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USD/CNY One Year Chart as of 27th August 2023

Thursday, 31st of August, China Manufacturing PMI – the results from the Purchasing Managers Index from China since April have been lackluster and showed weak export demand globally. Economic data from China has sparked concerns from international investors, and the USD/CNY has certainly received attention as it has risen steadily and is now challenging highs from late October and early November 2022.

Thursday, 31st of August, U.S Core PCE Price Index – the Personal Consumption Expenditures data is expected to match last month’s gain. This inflation data, and the GDP Price Index numbers from the day before will certainly get a reaction from financial institutions which would prefer to see no surprises higher.

Friday, 1st of September, U.S Non-Farm Employment Change and Average Hourly Earnings – as always these reports could shake market sentiment instantly. However it is the wages data which will likely be a focal point for investors. If wages can come under last month’s gain of 0.4%, this would be welcomed by investors and they may go into the long U.S holiday weekend a bit more calm regarding the Federal Reserve.

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Considerations for this Friday

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Considerations for this Friday

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Considerations 25th August 2023

10. Behavioral Sentiment: Risk adverse conditions heightened again.

9. Book: Pioneering Portfolio Management by David F. Swenson.

8. Rugby: All Blacks vs. Springboks tonight at Twickenham.

7. Federal Reserve: Jackson Hole Symposium and Speeches.

6. Travel Tips: Stay away from Russian corporate jets with Wagner members flying aboard.

5. South Africa: What’s next after BRICS Summit, an end to loadshedding?

4. Cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin, Binance coin remain under pressure.

3. Germany data: Coming ifo Business Climate and GDP data.

2. U.S data: Yesterday’s mixed Durable Goods numbers.

1. USD: Another burst of strength yesterday.

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Dog Days of Summer and a Return of Calm as Storms Threaten

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

Dog Days of Summer and a Return of Calm as Storms Threaten

With essentially two full weeks of trading until the end of August and the unofficial end of summer in sight, perhaps this week may be a good time for retail traders to be observers if they do not have the stomach for potentially noisy speeches and markets.

However, speculators who can block out media hyperbole and microphone soundbites from folks standing on podiums may find conditions rather attractive. As always outlook depends on perspective, time frames and managing risk. Behavioral sentiment has been rather chaotic the past month and some traders may suspect we are approaching the end of the loud spectacles of nervous drama in the markets.

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USD/ZAR One Year Chart as of 20th August 2023

The economic data this coming week should prove to be a rather mild schedule, but outside influences will certainly get publicity and get fanfare from talking heads who want 15 minutes of your attention. The BRICS Summit will get underway in Johannesburg, South Africa officially on the 22nd. Another big conference later this week will be the U.S Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole Symposium. Both events will produce plenty of conversations about inflation, economic stability and a more cohesive global cooperation monetarily. This will also create many raised eyebrows among traders who are skeptical about these type of events.

While leaders of China, Russia, India, Brasil and South Africa get together in Johannesburg, it is likely we will hear talk about potential BRICS expansion and the pursuit of a new unified currency which doesn’t rely upon the USD. However, in the background there is likely to be plenty of distraction because of China’s faltering economic data and Russia’s Ruble which has been impacted severely in the past month. Plenty of large rugs will be needed to hide the dust which threatens to make this BRICS event rather memorable.

Add the ongoing saga of Niger and the absence of a political solution for the world’s fourth largest producer of uranium as a potential flash point standing on the side of the stage waiting to make an appearance regarding Africa news. Perhaps it is too cynical to wonder if coordinated military action within Niger will await the end of the BRICS Summit. This so China and Russia are not given an opportunity on the ‘world stage’ as a united voice to offer their opinions regarding an intervention.

The Jackson Hole get together of global central bankers from the Fed, BoE, ECB, BoJ and others will certainly grab headlines late this week, but the script is mostly known regarding the rhetoric to come from the Federal Reserve’s annual event. Forex may move based on comments from the central bank chiefs as they speak towards the end of this week, but it is unlikely anything surprising is going to be heard. U.S Treasuries will remain a topic because of the ability to lock in a solid return over the mid-term compared to betting on the outcomes of the stock market, but this scenario has been playing out the past month. Investors should prepare for a long line of speeches regarding economic outlooks from central bank officials all week. Day traders should also remember that the chatter starts to be ‘tuned out’ as the speeches grow longer.

Traders looking for other outside influences may want to look at the cryptocurrency market where major assets have shown signs of struggling. Bitcoin and Binance coin could remain in the headlines for all the wrong reasons, if their prices continue to challenge important support levels and become more vulnerable.

Monday, 21st August, China Prime Rates – economic data from the nation has caused concerns that real estate problems are spilling over into the domestic consumer market. The interest rates China lends money to consumers is expected to be lowered to try and spark spending. Recent economic reports from China have been bad, and readers who believe this is merely ‘Western’ bias being reported should be careful to look for other sources to confirm data. Investment within the second biggest economy of the world has become tentative, because there is a fear the ‘official’ China numbers may be worse than those being reported.

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USD/JPY Six Months Chart as of 20th August 2023

Tuesday, 22nd August, Japan Consumer Price Index – the Bank of Japan report is expected to show a slight decline to the inflation numbers. Last month’s outcome of 3.0% is expected to lower and produce a 2.9% result. The USD/JPY could react momentarily to the outcome, the currency pair is near highs it hasn’t touched since November 2022.

Tuesday, 22nd August, U.S Existing Home Sales – the data is expected to show a slight decline of purchases. Mortgage prices continue to climb in the U.S and homeowners are less likely to desire taking on a new higher mortgage, this if they already have a lower mortgage locked in from a few years ago within a dwelling they already live.

Wednesday, 23rd August, Flash European Manufacturing and Services PMI – the reports will come from the E.U and U.K. The German and British outcomes will stir the Forex markets. The manufacturing data from Germany and Britain are forecast to be slightly negative.

Wednesday, 23rd of August, U.S Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI – the U.S reports are expected to show a decline in the manufacturing sector. If a negative result materializes, this could actually spark a selloff of the USD – if the financial markets have returned to calm waters by the middle of this week. Weaker numbers might be interpreted as another reason for the U.S Federal Reserve to remain neutral and why they should consider becoming dovish over the mid-term.

Thursday, 24th of August, U.S Durable Goods Orders – the core and broad numbers are anticipated to show declines. If the Durable Goods Orders numbers are worse than expected this could spark more USD selling, particularly if financial institutions are already calm and feel the data is another step to ‘lowering’ the Fed’s hawkish interest rate rhetoric. However, for the USD to weaken the markets will likely have needed to be tranquil beforehand, without major surprises having happened earlier in the week that may have escalated nervous behavioral sentiment in the broad markets.

Friday, 25th of August, Germany Business Climate and GDP – the ifo Business Climate report comes from a composite of manufacturers, wholesalers, and other enterprises and is expected to be lower than last month’s outcome. The Gross Domestic Product results are anticipated to show no changes, which would mean Germany’s economy remains in the doldrums and is flirting with recessionary pressures.

Friday, 25th of August, U.S University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment – this revised reading is expected to show U.S consumers remain steady without significant changes compared to the previous outcome.