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Nasdaq 100: U.S Exceptionalism and Competition from China

by with No Comment AI & Machine LearningAMT MarketsFeatured Highlights

Nasdaq 100: U.S Exceptionalism and Competition from China

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Nasdaq 100 Six Month Chart as of 28th January 2025

The losses on the Nasdaq 100 yesterday were bad. Wall Street participants were reminded that technology is and always has been a competitive landscape. It is rather remarkable that the lesson being given to capitalists came from China which is led by a Communist government. U.S Exceptionalism which has been spoken about in loud tones the past week because of President Trump’s return to the White House has been put on notice.

There will be additional bad days on Wall Street, but the idea that the Nasdaq 100 now faces an existential threat from DeepSeek is farfetched. Traders must take a healthful breath and remember yesterday’s loses while bad were not catastrophic. Premium froth from Nvidia and other companies saw some of their likely overvalued worth selloff on Monday. Perhaps more will follow today, but tech and innovation companies have always faced a competitive landscape.

Was yesterday an indication there is a crack in U.S Exceptionalism via technology that is going to be long lasting? Companies must always compete to be the best, if DeepSeek’s entry into the news cycle was a ‘sputnik’ moment as some claim, folks need to remember the U.S bounced back rather nicely and eventually outpaced the Russians – who still remain a tech competitor regarding rockets and space.

This weekend’s news from China has provided another moment the world realizes technological gains are often hard fought. While many media pundits act with hyperbolic noise and state vivid concerns about the future of the technological competition between China and companies around the globe, the race for innovation has and always will exist.

AI for the moment is grabbing the headlines, but Artificial Intelligence is also a buzzword – it is marketing usage by those who are trying to entice investors with big promises, except machine learning has been around for decades. Progress the last few years has been significant, but AI isn’t ready to make humans into a new species. Competitive battles in equity markets centering on innovation via semiconductors, quantum computing, robotics, IoT, biotech, transportation, and other sectors have been relevant and will remain this way.

Monday’s results on the Nasdaq 100 and harsh falls for some tech giants like Nvidia is a reminder that while speculating and investing in one company is a potential way to make solid returns, investing in indices and a large group of diverse companies often produces steadier yields. Yes, yesterday’s losses on the Nasdaq 100 were bad, but they were less critical compared to the losses Nvidia suffered. And let’s remember Nvidia will survive yesterday’s declines.

After Monday’s Nasdaq 100 decline, today will prove a another test of sentiment. Premium froth in companies such as Nvidia that sold off, will now cause people to question fundamental analysis of tech and innovation. Bubbles sometimes burst. The remainder of this week will be a solid test of behavioral sentiment. A battle between large speculators and investors will also be seen. Those who plan on cashing out of the market near-term to book profits may find that investors with long-term ambitions still win the race.

Perceptions are constantly being shaped, we should always be questioning the ability of technology which is proven versus marketing mayhem that is hot air. Artificial Intelligence has had a gravitational pull on the investment landscape. The froth created by investment into the AI sphere is important, but it only one part of many combined technologies constantly developing.

Many companies claiming they are AI centric have no real basis to make the statement. Semiconductor companies have led a lot of the gains in Nasdaq’s run higher because they are the ones supplying micro processing to companies that need the technology to build machine learning capabilities, China has always been a competitor and yesterday provided a wake up call for those who forgot. A dose of reality has been delivered once again to Wall Street.

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Silence Of Tether a Loud Warning in Crypto Trading World

by with No Comment Cryptocurrencies & Digital Assets

Silence Of Tether a Loud Warning in Crypto Trading World

Tether continues to trade below its stated target value of 1.0000 via its stable coin ‘mandate’, and its failure to attain the target for nearly a month may be a loud warning.

Failure to Maintain 1.00000000 value in Tether

USDT/USD is trading near 0.99892000 via a Coinbase quote as of this writing. The last time Tether traded above the 1.0000 level in a sustained manner was in the last week of April. Since the destruction of TerraUSD, USDT/USD has not attained its objective as a stable coin in a month and a half.

One of the Tether functions in the cryptocurrency world is to facilitate transactions for digital asset businesses. If a tech firm, for instance, were to initiate an investment for a project in the crypto world, they might ask for the equivalent of 1 million USD. This transaction via the funding in the investment is often paid for via a stable coin. Tether is a mainstay of these investment deals.

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Receiving Tether allows the business taking in the stable coin investments, to ‘know’ they hold what is supposed to be a nearly exact USD based exchange rate, if they decide to cash in their Tether if they need dollars to pay bills. The problem for USDT/USD currently is that the exchange rate is not meeting this need and expectation.

Yes, a crypto based business could say, ‘well, we know the rate is now 99 cents on the dollar, so we need to ask for more Tether to make sure we get the equivalent of our investment asking price in USD’. OK, good enough, but this creates complications that are unwanted.

The silence of Tether not trading at 1.000 speaks about a much more problematic possibility in the cryptocurrency world. What if USDT/USD is actually starting to show signs of fatigue? What if USDT/USD continues to incrementally lose a little bit of its value moving forward?

Where have the Speculators Gone?

Is it possible there are large speculative funds betting against Tether and shorting the stable coin with the belief it will continue to lose value? If funds are wagering against Tether and have the fortitude to maintain long term selling positions against USDT/USD, they could trigger big problems down the road if they are proven correct.

The cryptocurrency world is showing massive signs that speculators are not participating. While Bitcoin has been able to maintain some semblance of value, BTC/USD is still stumbling near lows and has not been able to create a large reversal higher. Bitcoin is struggling during this prolonged bearish trend. The mantra that cryptocurrencies are a hedge against inflation has proven brazenly false.

Even worse is that most of the other cryptos are struggling too. Ethereum continues to test lower values. As of this writing ETH/USD is near the 1674.00 ratio. Technical support levels are faltering and there appears to be no momentous wave of speculative zeal flourishing which is looking to buy into the digital asset world on the notion that cryptos are oversold. Cardano, Avalanche, Solana, Polkadot and Ripple are all struggling via their coins.

HODL mantra, Corporate Treasury and Hedge Funds

If speculators really have gone away, this leaves the folks who are die hard supporters known as HODL’ers (Hold on for Dear Life). It also leaves intriguingly major companies who have purchased some digital assets such as Bitcoin and cryptos such as Ethereum as ‘assets’ within their corporate treasury structures. There are also hedge fund companies that are holding cryptos as speculative investments. What if corporate treasury suddenly gets scared and decides to cash out of the digital asset world? Will the directors of MicroStrategy and Tesla get nervous and force sales of their digital asset holdings? Michael Saylor has repeatedly said no and that he will keep buying Bitcoin for MicroStrategy.

The lack of a rise in cryptocurrencies during this long bearish trend, and the notion that no massive reversal has been demonstrated during the large erosion of value the past two months is a potentially negative bad sign. Critical technical support levels have been tested repeatedly and their penetration lower is a loud screaming sign that something is going wrong from a short term speculative point of view. It doesn’t appear that we have reached the end of the downturn in cryptocurrencies yet.

If some deep pocketed folks are betting against Tether as a stable coin and believe its value will continue to dwindle without a fight upwards, the silence of USDT/USD recently in the digital asset world may prove to be vicious signal that worse is going to come for cryptos in the coming months.

Cryptocurrencies remain speculating. No matter what some folks say, digital assets over the long haul still have a questionable future via utilitarian capabilities and as their technology evolves. Corporate treasury and hedge funds who ‘invest’ in digital assets are speculating and they may pay a heavy price if they bet on the wrong direction.

The inability of USDT/USD to move back towards its 1.000 value is troubling. If speculators stay on the sidelines and do not participate in cryptos, corporations and hedge funds holding digital assets may be forced to start capitulating . Meaning they may start to sell. If directors of companies and speculative hedge funds start to get nervous about the long term outlook for Bitcoin, and Tether continues to loss value while it proclaims it is a stable coin – then darker days will come.