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India Insider: Agriculture Still Traps Nation’s Workforce

by with No Comment AssetsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

India Insider: Agriculture Still Traps Nation's Workforce

A Field Survey in South India’s Agricultural Towns

India’s growth story is usually told through noteworthy headline numbers. Yet beneath these aggregates lies a persistent imbalance, agriculture continues to employ a large share of the workforce, while contributing a much smaller share of output. This gap shapes income stability, consumption patterns, and the complicated experience of growth across much of the country for many people.

This essay uses field observations comparing two major agricultural towns in Tamil Nadu State in India, Tiruvannamalai and Kallakurichi. After analyzing their respective data and examining how this imbalance plays out on the ground, I offer my perspective.

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Typical Agricultural Field in Southern India

Tiruvannamalai: Growth Without Employment Transformation

In Tiruvannamalai district, I visited several areas where housing conditions were poor and informal settlements were widespread. I have visited many households here since 2023. These conditions are now changing, but not in a way that fundamentally transforms employment.

Capital inflows from the neighboring State of Andhra Pradesh have fueled a real estate boom and expanded services such as lodging, restaurants, and transport. While this has altered the physical landscape and raised asset values, it has not created stable non-farm jobs at scale. Employment remains largely informal, seasonal, and low-paid, leaving the underlying agricultural labor trap intact.

Although Tiruvannamalai exhibits a relatively high services share in district GDP, the income generated by this sector accrues from a narrow group of asset owners, intermediaries, and rent-seekers. As a result, per capita income figures overstate the extent of broad-based welfare. A large share of the workforce remains engaged in low-wage service activities with limited income security.

Kallakurichi: Agricultural Dependence, Weaker Services

In Kallakurichi district, the structural imbalance is even more pronounced. Agriculture accounts for a noticeably larger share of district GDP than in Tiruvannamalai, while the services share is correspondingly lower. District level GDDP and sectoral composition data from the Department of Economics and Statistics, Government of Tamil Nadu (2022–23 provisional, current prices), show that agriculture contributes roughly one-fifth of district output, even as a disproportionately large share of the workforce continues to depend on this type of work for income.

This high dependence on agriculture results in extremely low output per worker, widespread disguised unemployment, and chronically weak incomes. Growth exists, but it is concentrated in activities that do not absorb labor effectively.

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Gross Domestic District Product Comparison of Agriculture versus Non-Agriculture

Core Problem: Growth Composition, Not Growth Absence

The core structural problem in districts like Tiruvannamalai and Kallakurichi is therefore not the absence of growth, but its composition. Too many workers remain tied to a sector that generates relatively little value. Services and industry have expanded, but not in a manner that absorbs surplus rural labor at scale.

As long as labor remains trapped in low productivity farming, while non-farm sectors fail to provide stable employment opportunities, headline income measures will continue to overstate actual welfare.

Consumption Consequences of Agricultural Dependence

This imbalance has direct consequences for consumption. Towns that depend heavily on agriculture tend to exhibit weak and uneven consumption patterns. Farm incomes are inherently volatile, driven by fluctuations in commodity prices, weather conditions, and market access. In many cases, farmers are forced to sell produce at a discount, incur outright losses, or delay sales under distressing conditions. Only intermittently do they realize meaningful profits.

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Chart Comparing Towns of Tiruvannamalai and Kallakurichi in Tamil Nadu

This volatility translates into cautious spending behavior. Consumption rises in short bursts following a good season, but thereafter contracts sharply. This pattern is clearly visible in districts such as Tiruvannamalai and Kallakurichi, where agricultural dependence suppresses steady consumption despite occasional income windfalls.

The same dynamic is visible at State level. Across Tamil Nadu, agriculture employs over 40 percent of the labor force, while contributing a far smaller share of output. The statistics exhibited at the district level are therefore not an isolated phenomenon, but a systemic one.

National Structural Imbalance

Zooming out further, what is visible in Tiruvannamalai and Kallakurichi mirrors India’s broader structural imbalance. Nationally, agriculture employs close to half the workforce, but contributes less than a fifth of GDP. This gap suppresses incomes, weakens consumption, and reflects India’s limited success in industrializing at scale.

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India Agriculture as Percent of GDP from 1990s into 2020s

Services have grown rapidly, but they remain reliant on capital and skill intensive, and unable to absorb surplus rural labor in large numbers. As a result, economic growth continues without broad based prosperity. Headline GDP numbers improve, but the underlying structure remains fragile.

India’s central economic scrouge is growth without labor mobility. Until workers move out of low productivity agriculture jobs and into stable non-farm employment at scale, income volatility and weak consumption will remain defining features of the economy. Regardless of how strong the headline growth numbers appear, a national challenge remains.

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India Insider: Manufacturing Strategy to Create Rural Jobs

by with No Comment BusinessFeatured HighlightsIndia

India Insider: Manufacturing Strategy to Create Rural Jobs

Across much of India’s rural landscape, manufacturing remains scarce and finding a solution for this remains a priority. While some towns do have small scale industries that offer jobs, this is still limited. As of financial year 2023, agriculture accounts for only 16% of India’s GDP, down sharply from around 35% in the 1990s, due to a structural shift toward services and manufacturing.

A large share of rural families still depend on agriculture, often engaging in farming and irrigation with modern equipment. However, marketing their produce remains a persistent challenge. Meanwhile, many rural workers are engaged in low-wage trade and commerce, often in informal settings such as small shops and roadside businesses. These roles typically offer limited income and little upward mobility. Falling real wages have pushed many to migrate to India’s urban centers or venture overseas to Singapore, Malaysia, and the Gulf countries in search of better livelihoods, aided by favorable exchange rates.

Capitalism and Efficient Manufacturing

Adam Smith, in his seminal work The Wealth of Nations wrote that, ‘it is not by gold or silver, but by labor that all the wealth of nations is created’. This fundamental idea underpins the modern economic thought that wealth is not derived merely from money, but from the productive capacity of people.

When capital is invested in a capitalist enterprise, it generates profits for the owner, provides wages for employees, and delivers returns (such as dividends) for shareholders. But this cycle of value creation depends on active and efficient enterprise, particularly manufacturing which has been missing or underdeveloped in many parts of rural India.

Unlike countries such as the United States, where people readily relocate across States, India faces some unique challenges. Like the European Union, India is a union of diverse linguistic and cultural regions. It is uncommon for a small business owner from Himachal Pradesh to directly access markets in Tamil Nadu or Karnataka due to language barriers, cultural differences, and logistical constraints. These frictions further isolate rural producers from wider markets.

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Garment Industry Values in India, Bangladesh and Vietnam

Strategic Solutions and the Role of State Governments

To revive rural economies, business people along with their state governments must identify and invest in strategic sectors that create jobs and add value. Kerala is a fine example: as one of India’s top spice-producing States, Kerala has the potential to establish local industries focused on spice processing, packaging, and export. Coordination between agriculture and manufacturing can generate employment, stimulate local economies, and enhance foreign exchange earnings.

Albert Hirschman, a development economist, highlighted this approach through his theory of unbalanced growth and economic integration. He argued that certain industries have strong reciprocal connections with other parts of the economy. By prioritizing sectors with good synergy potential, developing countries can achieve significant growth even with limited resources.

Growing competition from countries like Bangladesh and Vietnam which both enjoy favorable trade agreements do pose new challenges, this must be taken seriously by India and create a focus on forward looking international commerce. There will always be competition from distant enterprises and nations, this must be accepted and planned for via commercial insights.

Within India is Tiruppur, a city in Tamil Nadu, known as the ‘Manchester of South India’ due to its vibrant textile industry. The city has created an ecosystem of manufacturing that consistently offers higher real wages compared to other towns in the region. It has successfully shifted labor from agriculture to industry, thereby increasing productivity and income. It is a bright example and defines one way to make progress.

Protecting New Industries and Creation of Success

In his book How Rich Countries Got Rich and Why Poor Countries Stay Poor, economist Erik Reinert argues that nations develop not just by doing what they are currently good – such as agriculture or mining, but by nurturing industries that can become more productive long-term. Typically manufacturing and technology sectors lead to greater innovation and economic resilience.

Reinert provides numerous examples, like South Korea’s emerging growth in steel and its automotive industries, and Ireland’s rise in information technology where specific protections and support for young industries has led to long-term prosperity.

India’s rural transformation cannot rely on New Delhi alone. State governments along with business people must take the lead by identifying sectors that have the potential to foster high growth and employment. Helping to create local value chains, investing in infrastructure, training, and market access will build resilience in these communities. By encouraging small-scale manufacturing and leveraging regional strengths, the country’s rural areas can become engines of economic growth.

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Federal Reserve Expected to Sound Guardedly Cautious Tmrw

by with No Comment Behavioral SentimentCentral BanksFeatured Highlights

Federal Reserve Expected to Sound Guardedly Cautious Tmrw

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EUR/USD Five Day Chart as of 17th December 2024

Large traders are clearly bracing for the Fed tmrw as Forex produces volatile tight ranges. A rate cut is expected, but cautious Fed rhetoric will likely follow.

Forex has been a dangerous wagering ground for retail traders since the end of September. Financial institutions which clearly were betting on a more dovish Federal Reserve starting in early summer becoming a central theme into 2025 have been proven half right, this as the Fed has cut interest rates and is expected to do so tomorrow. However, being half right leaves the door open to also being half wrong, and financial institutions have reacted to this by becoming aggressive buyers of the USD since late September as perspectives have changed. The strong USD trend the past two months plus has hit some speculators hard.

The election of Donald Trump added a strong dose of impetus for USD buyers, this as the President-elect’s tough rhetoric regarding tariffs caused reactions and fear of unknown consequences. In the past couple of weeks more tranquil Forex trading has emerged and the USD finally started to give back some of its gains, yet the USD versus most major currencies, like the EUR/USD, remains within the the stronger elements of it range. While the Fed is expected to lower its Federal Funds Rate tomorrow by 0.25 to 4.50% tomorrow, traders need to remember this has been priced into Forex already. Tranquil trading the past two weeks indicates financial institutions have readjusted their outlooks to the incoming White House administration.

Now it is time to see if the U.S Federal Reserve has started to adjust their outlooks to what a Trump Presidency means. And financial institutions are keen to better understand the outlook of the U.S central bank. Inflation numbers while traversing lower are still rather stubborn and this may will not help the Fed’s mid-term mindset regarding interest rate cuts. GDP in the U.S has remained steady, and there is the potential the economy in the States will improve under Trump. Unemployment numbers while showing signs of weakness have not been terrible either. So while the Fed’s current Federal Funds Rate is higher than normal taking into consideration the historic average the past ten years, they still may not feel they have enough ability to cut interest rates too much more without sparking inflation.

A January rate cut seems unlikely at this time. If the Fed does sound guardedly cautious tomorrow, retail traders may see the USD get initially weaker due to the Fed rate cut, but then see a storm emerge and USD centric strength reappear all in the same day – perhaps in the span of minutes. Speculators need to understand that financial institutions have already baked tomorrow’s interest rate cut into the cake. So it isn’t the rate cut tomorrow that is important if it happens (if it doesn’t then that’s another story); it is what the Fed says and traders should expect them to be very cautious – because per the recent trading of the USD and a barometer it appears financial institutions are bracing for a more vigilant Fed.

Just like he has with many folks he views as uncompromising before, Donald Trump may begin to feel Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is not on his side regarding interest rate policy. If the Federal Reserve chooses to sound hesitant to cut interest rates in early 2025, it will be rather intriguing to see President-elect Trump’s response. Could a confrontation between the White House and Federal Reserve be in the cards over the next six months?

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Forex: Behind the Curtain as Speculative Deja Vu Strikes

by with No Comment AMT MarketsCentral BanksFeatured Highlights

Forex: Behind the Curtain as Speculative Deja Vu Strikes

Friday jobs reports came in stronger than anticipated on the surface, and this led to a roller coaster like ride for Forex traders as results were acted upon by financial institutions. However, a look behind the data shows ‘positive’ results were spurred on by part-time hiring and government influences leading to a notion that jobs numbers were not exactly a ray of sunshine regarding U.S economic health. The suspicious results cause a desire to look for ulterior motives, and to wonder if election year politics are playing a role in the U.S employment picture.

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GBP/USD Six Month Chart as of 9th April 2024

The GBP/USD and EUR/USD are rather insightful for technical and fundamental traders. The currency pairs are languishing as of today’s values near pricing that was seen in the second week of December. Since the ‘announcement’ from the U.S Federal Reserve on the 13th of December that a change in monetary policy would begin to occur in 2024, in actuality nothing has really happened, except government ‘speak’ trying to sound as if everything is understood and in control, while it is clearly not.

Economic data from the U.S and Europe has continued to be soiled by mixed results, and retail speculators looking for a trend to emerge have had to deal with choppy conditions. Financial institutions remain unclear about interest rate outlooks. The Fed while trying to ‘sound’ dovish rhetoric remains locked within a Google engine keyword mantra as they mutter the phrase ‘over time’ when trying to convince people that interest rates will ‘eventually’ be cut.

Last week leading up to the Non-Farm Employment Change numbers, many FOMC members were offering cautious tones about the Federal Funds Rate and warning it should not be changed yet. The implication of the Fed’s verbiage could lead some to suspect they have all practiced statements handed to them by their overlords who are concerned this is an election year and jobs are in jeopardy.

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EUR/USD Six Month Chart as of 9th April 2024

Which leads us back to Forex and all financial assets, as investors try to swim waters which have left fundamental perspectives grasping at data which is not easy to decipher. U.S government policy is practicing fiscal spending that is causing massive debts, and perhaps influencing hiring data which may be more akin to putting lipstick on a pig. Many U.S voters seemingly lean towards electing officials who promise to hand out the biggest ‘social rewards’, while ignoring there will be a price to be paid down the road.

The Federal Reserve in the meantime tries to sound optimistic about inflation eroding, but concerns due to U.S government debt being accrued, and global geopolitical affairs combined with energy policy which is making it more expensive to maintain cheap transportation, efficient agriculture and manufacturing, shadow the Fed’s hopes. WTI Crude Oil remains over 86.00 USD per barrel. Gold is trading at record high values and above 2300.00 USD. Does anyone see the dangerous connections? Equity indices should be watched as a barometer this week.

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USD/JPY Six Month Chart as of 9th April 2024

Monday, 8th of April, Japan Average Cash Earnings and Economic Watchers Sentiment – yesterday’s reports matched expectations regarding wages, but workers surveyed noted their concerns about incremental inflation which is being seen in Japan. The USD/JPY is challenging November higher values and the Bank of Japan has been widely criticized for not raising interest rates more aggressively. However, it is possible the BoJ wants the Japanese Yen to remain within its weaker price range to spark a stronger Japanese economy via exports.

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AUD/USD Six Month Chart as of 9th April 2024

Tuesday, 9th of April, Australia Westpac Consumer Sentiment – the results via the consumer reading came in negative. The AUD/USD like the GBP/USD and EUR/USD is traversing values tested in the second week of December 2023, leading to the feeling of deja vu.

Wednesday, 10th of April, U.S Consumer Price Index – you have heard this before, the inflation reports from the States are going to rattle the financial markets including Forex. The USD is certain to react. Data from the U.S has produced surprises aplenty in the past few months. The Consumer Price Index is important and day traders certainly need to pay attention.

Thursday, 11th of April, European Central Bank – the ECB is not expected to change its Main Refinancing Rate, but many analysts believe they should cut borrowing costs. However, the ECB will likely remain within the camp of choosing to ‘wait and see’. The ECB Press Conference with Christine Legarde has widely become regarded as an opportunity for political speech as much as an economic dialogue. Recent data from the European Union suggests the worst of the recessionary cycle is gone, but German Trade Balance numbers released on Monday were negative, highlighting hurdles remain. Inflation is a worry, and a cut to the interest rate might be able to help spur on economic activity while counting on lagging data to prove proactive policy should be implemented. But this likely is not going to happen and the EUR/USD will remain problematic.

Thursday, 11th of April, U.S Producer Price Index – these slew of reports should be watched carefully. If the data is stronger than expected it is likely a part of the residue caused by higher energy costs that have affected logistics and created more expensive raw materials which are needed to produce goods. It was the higher PPI reports last month that caused dramatic tidal shifts in Forex, speculators should brace for the potential of additional mayhem.

Friday, 12th of April, U.K Gross Domestic Product – last month’s GDP numbers from Great Britain came in slightly higher than expected with a 0.2% gain, this report is anticipating growth of only 0.1%. Traders should take a deeper look at the statistics upon publication and check for revisions to past months. The U.K economy has been struggling, the ‘growth’ results will affect the GBP/USD before going into the weekend.

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Returning to the Roots of Commerce and Positive Contribution

by with No Comment AssetsBusinessFeatured Highlights

Returning to the Roots of Commerce and Positive Contribution

This article was originally written in September of 2009 when the U.S national debt was 3 trillion , as of June 2023 it is above 32 trillion USD. Mr. Jeremy Blatch suggests current economic conditions warrant further reflection.

As the bloodletting continues in an attempt to cure the banking disease, we are no closer to resolving the root cause of the problem of the financial crisis. Unlike the proletariat in France before the revolution, the masses have not been offered cake to chew on, but a diet of more indebtedness. The chosen elite have distributed billions of other people’s money leaving the silent majority to choke in anger and incredulity.

The Chairman of the U.S Federal Reserve, when challenged by Congress as to the authority which allowed him to give away billions of tax payer’s dollars, nervously sighted the Federal Reserve Act of 1913. The total capitalization of the USA at that time was perhaps USD 500b. The current Public Account Deficit of the USA is around 3 trillion USD (3,000,000,000,000). Where is the money coming from to repay this?

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The Dominance of Central Bank Policy and Government Mismanagement

For the first time in history, we have witnessed central banks and governments acting in unison to give away huge sums, seemingly daily to banks and the capital markets. In the press and media, figures in billions and even trillions have become common place. Governments are not companies. They cannot manufacture anything except perhaps lies. Or misspeak if you prefer to be politically correct. What they can do is print money, as they own and control the printing presses. They can then distribute the paper. In this case swallowed up by a banking system, drowning in its own sea of corruption, deception, mismanagement and greed.

We are told that the banking system is now stable again. But for how long and at what cost? The Damocles sword for failure in times of plenty, has yet to fall and will do so as a crippling tax burden on future generations. This at a time when Western governments are unable to guarantee their own elderly a life of dignity in their final years. The great champion of freedom and equality – the USA, cannot even guarantee its people a basic level of free health care at point of need.

The last decade has ended on a sad but predictable note, proving that we have sown the wind of increasing wealth at any cost, and have reaped the whirlwind. In the process we have singularly failed to distribute that wealth and resources equitably to where it’s needed.

Ironically one if the trends to emerge over the past decade of plenty are the development of socially responsible funds. The concept is to allow investors to direct their money into companies whose activities and ‘modus operandi’ are contributing positively to society. This is of course is selective, but at least the investor knows what their money is buying.

The Rise of Sovereign Wealth Funds as a ‘Caretaker’

Governments, especially with oil revenues have joined the band wagon creating Sovereign Wealth Funds. Norway the third largest oil producer, has formed a fund aimed at being socially responsible. In a global economy, ownership of companies is the most important way to have influence claims the Norwegian Foreign Minister. More humanitarian than an oil baron, the Norwegian government was key in gaining the International Land Mines Treaty, and also hosted the historic meeting in Oslo between Israel and Palestine. With the wisdom of Joseph they established a Petroleum Fund, in 1996, now renamed the Pension Fund to take care of the future generations. What a comparison to the arrogant ineptness of the USA, UK and Europe, who have burdened their future generations. The Norwegian government pension fund excludes companies that it believes are failing ethically. Interestingly, there are as many companies who are blacklisted abusing their employees as there are failings in other areas.

Whilst Norway has unambiguously laid out its outline addressing the needs of its own people before the needs of society at large, not the same can be said of Sovereign Wealth Funds which in general are about gaining political and strategic power by buying into the economy and owning strategic assets in the western industrialised nations. As we witness a shift in the balance of world economic power, ownership of strategic assets and the ability to guard and maintain trade routes will dominate the next decade’s macro economic strategy.

The concept of allowing investors choices consistent with their ethical beliefs is nothing new. But is it possible to combine successful business practices while looking after the disadvantaged.

The Impact of the Quakers in the Business World

The first funds to allow investors to direct their money into companies whose activities they approved of were pioneered by the Life Assurance Group Friends Provident in the 1980’s. This pioneering move was typical of the Quakers who were the founders of the Life Assurance Company. The Religious Society of Friends was a Christian movement founded in England in the 17th Century by George Fox. Puritans and non-conformist, they were given the name Quakers’ a term of derision, as they would often quake in the presence of God. They gained a reputation for social activism and were instrumental in the campaign against the transatlantic slave trade of the 18th and 19th centuries. Many were imprisoned for their faith and beliefs.

The Quakers flourished in business and due to both their success and religious beliefs made more enemies than friends. Persecuted and unable to gain insurance, they formed their own company. One of the overriding concerns of the Friendly Society, was to care for the poor and disadvantaged in their own communities.

Many captains of commerce and industry, in the 1800’s were Quakers, who founded and managed their businesses on biblical principals. Joseph Fry who started the famous Fry’s chocolates built a small town for his employees of his factories, with all amenities, schools, hospitals and recreation facilities. Work was scare, and many had to leave their home towns to find employment. Fry’s were bought by the Cadbury company. John Cadbury, himself, also being a Quaker. Edward Pease, owner and pioneer of the first railway in England from Stockton to Darlington housed his own employees, and Joseph Rowntree founder of the famous Rowntree Chocolates was the first person to develop low cost housing for the poor.

Barclays Bank had its roots in the Quaker movement. Unable to obtain loans the Quakers decided to form their own bank. True to their faith and beliefs employees were well housed and looked after.

In spite of being persecuted for their beliefs, through their success in business they were able to alleviate much poverty in serve the wider community. They didn’t need to wait for governments to bankrupt their future generations, they used what they had wisely, and gave something back. The bottom line in any business must be to make money. But as we have seen with the banking and financial crisis of today at what cost?

Originally published in www.ehh.gi in September 2009. Jeremy Blatch is the Founder and Consultant of Ein Harod Family Office.

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NASDAQ Composite: Bearish Trend Testing Trading Inexperience

by with No Comment Major Global Equity Indices

NASDAQ Composite: Bearish Trend Testing Trading Inexperience

The NASDAQ Composite has been within the grasp of a selling trend since late November of 2021, and traders who feel the urge to buy should understand their goals and time frames clearly.

The NASDAQ Composite has seen a strong wave of selling take hold of its equities since the later stage of 2021. Investors have likely been spooked by inflation and high PE ratios which correlate into questionable values and fears of over exuberance and reactions. The combination of U.S Federal Reserve policy which is certainly having an effect on behavioral sentiment is problematic too. Investors are not fans of unclear outlooks and current economic conditions are definitely causing nervous sentiment.

Many traders and investors have not experienced a sincere bear market during their financial careers. Indices and their equities have produced a rather steady upwards vehicle for years. The thought that an equity index can actually go down for a long duration, without significant reversals higher following is troubling and new for many people. Timing new trends is exceptionally hard. An investor who has a ten year outlook certainly brings a different perspective to buying the NASDAQ Composite compared to a day trader who is likely maneuvering in the index with short term wagers using CFDs.

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Current market conditions in the NASDAQ and other major global equity indices remain challenging and this will likely continue into early this summer. The U.S Federal Reserve will be conducting an FOMC meeting in mid-June and another interest rate hike is likely being considered. A potential rate hike of 0.50% may be seen. The potential of this additional hike to the current interest rate of 1.00% has likely been digested into the marketplace by financial institutions, but that is not the end of the troubling concerns.

Technical traders who watch the daily results of the NASDAQ Composite and other indices may attempt to speculate on the gyrations of their moves based on short term volatility. These traders should understand they are also battling large institutional traders who use complex algorithms to pursue their positions. The combination of nervous equity markets caused by uncertain economic outlooks, while it waits on the pronouncements of the U.S Federal Reserve are bound to deliver more nervous results in the NASDAQ Composite and other global equity indices.

While it may be accepted that the U.S Fed will raise interest rates again in June, the greater question that financial institutions want answered is what the U.S central bank’s outlook on additional interest rate hikes in the summer and fall will be. Inflation in the U.S remains troubling high. The rising costs of logistics, food and consumer goods are largely a manifestation of higher energy costs.

Yes, coronavirus has been a large ingredient too, regarding inflation and its current effect on employment and the resulting lack of workers is a component in the equation due to new perspectives among the workforce. The shortage of employable labor has also sparked concerns about demographics for the future. While the virus and its effects seem to have eroded in the West for the time being, unfortunately there are concerns regarding a potentially large problem in China if coronavirus infections continue to occur there. Shutdowns in China due to the virus can affect supply and commodities prices globally.

The costs of higher energy and commodity prices are something that companies and consumers will have to deal with in the months ahead. Disinflation is likely to come, but it may take a handful of months more. It is a complex puzzle and traders who want to bet on short term results will have to endure sudden storms of volatility which are likely to arise. Unanswered questions await and because of the shadows that hover over the economic landscape, clarity is not going to be delivered soon.