Implications of a 48th President on the 20th January 2025
Presidential news and questions are moving fast, but the coming weeks and months may become a political nightmare if challenges are not handled pragmatically. Financial markets opened this morning with risk appetite reduced, as cautious trading swept through financial assets on the news President Joe Biden would not seek re-election in November of this year. Hyperbole is dangerous and noise can cause unwanted nervous reactions in financial markets when there are unknowns.
Taking into account possible risk factors is important for mid and long-term outlooks. Financial institutions and traders should consider the potential of a rather dangerous political situation developing in the United States over the next few months. First off, will Kamala Harris now get the nomination from the Democrats to run for President in November? There are no certainties and Democratic power brokers may have other potential candidates in mind, which will create less clarity for investors.
Worse, what if there is a 48th President being sworn into office on the 20th of January 2025? Joe Biden, the 46th President, has in no uncertain terms publicly admitted he does not have the capacity to run for the Presidency in the coming U.S election. Does this also mean that he does not have the ability to run the nation until another President takes over following the November election and January inauguration? What would happen if the 25th Amendment of the U.S Constitution dealing with presidential succession and disability comes into force? If Biden is seen as unfit to rule now, he would have to be replaced and Vice President Harris would assume power.
What happens if Harris is forced to take control and becomes the 47th President of the United States before the U.S election is held or even afterwards? The 25th Amendment will become a talking point by political foes of President Biden, and maybe even by those who admire him. The question about Biden’s ability to make correct cognitive decisions between now and the inauguration in January is not a far fetched conspiratorial concern anymore.
How would financial markets react to Biden being replaced by Harris as President in the coming weeks or months? What would happen to U.S foreign policy? The U.S is not set up like Parliamentary political systems to have caretaker governments simply help guide a nation until a new government can be formed. The 25th Amendment and its use could be demanded in order to remove Joe Biden if he is currently unfit to serve, and this opens the door to chaotic U.S executive administration developments and decisions in the months ahead.
The fact that Biden has not been able to make a public announcement regarding his decision not to seek re-election, and will only speak to the U.S public later this week per his letter yesterday is troubling. Is Biden’s health so bad that he cannot perform the job of U.S President today? Section three of the 25th Amendment allows for the Vice President to be transferred power if the current President is unable to discharge their duties until fit again.
However, section four of the 25th Amendment allows the Vice President and cabinet to declare the current President incapable of performing their duties. The Vice President and the current President’s cabinet allows them to decide and issue a statement to the Senate and House leaders declaring the President is unable to govern and is unfit to voluntarily transfer power to the Vice President. Yes, there are timetables involved regarding the President’s capacity to be judged again and reconsidered for the resumption of power, but the U.S Constitution does open the door for a President to be removed permanently if they cannot perform their jobs by the President’s cabinet.
So again, what will happen over the coming weeks and months? Critics of Joe Biden will certainly claim he is not capable of governing and demand proof of his ability in the coming days. A growing chorus is likely to emerge expressing doubts about Biden’s ability to lead. Politics will be a factor in the potential game which will get loud. Republicans will certainly claim if Biden cannot run for President in November, that he likely cannot run the country until a new President is elected.
Politics have delivered a lot of noise this past weekend, but investors should expect the turmoil to grow in sound as people question the leadership of the U.S and ask for proof that Biden is in charge. The U.S elected Joe Biden to be President, not his appointed cabinet. If Biden is not able to prove he can do the job, there are legitimate reasons to consider a transfer of power to Kamala Harris.
At this juncture it appears the Republicans are in the drivers seat politically regarding the November elections. The Republicans may take control of the Senate, remain in charge of the House and attain the White House. Will Kamala Harris have to perform a caretaker government until the 20th of January 2025? Investors and day traders should keep these risk scenarios in mind.
