postR196

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Votes for the 4th of November

by with No Comment AssetsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Votes for the 4th of November

postR196

10. Priorities: Not to dismiss the execution of beloved Peanut the Squirrel by New York authorities recently, but lets reflect on the fact that this little fellow made international news while wars are raging, and nearly 300 people in the U.S are dying from drug overdoses per day. Social media is rather powerful.

9. NBC: Kamala Harris appeared on Saturday Night Live for roughly 90 seconds this weekend, this created criticism and questions about unfair airtime for the Vice President. SNL is lucky to get more than 5 million viewers per episode on average. To try and apologize for the potential trouble, NBC then gave Donald Trump free commercial airtime twice yesterday, once during a NASCAR race which on average attracts over 3 million viewers, and on a Sunday night NFL broadcast which averages sometimes up to 22 million viewers.

8. Saber-Rattling: There is a potential Iran is waiting on the outcome of the U.S vote for President before undertaking more military actions. Deciding if and how they are going to launch another attack on Israel, depending on who wins the U.S election because of the potential ramifications is likely part of their military strategy.

7. BTC/USD: Bitcoin as of this writing is trading near 68,500 USD. The digital asset continues to bounce around rather intriguing resistance. On Tuesday of last week Bitcoin traded near 73,500 momentarily, while the highs are certainly noteworthy, support for the speculative asset has been around 66,000 since the middle of October. There are reasons to suspect Bitcoin will display a large amount of volatility this week, particularly when the new U.S President is known.

6. Forex: As of this writing the USD/JPY is slightly below 152.000, the EUR/USD is around 1.09000, the GBP/USD is near 1.29650. The question is where these currency pairs and other major FX assets will be in three nights. Day traders dreaming of riding momentum via financial institutions need to understand the equilibrium of risk and reward. In other words, the same amount of money you can make, is likely the same amount of money you can lose. Risk management will be a life preserver for many speculators this week.

5. U.S. Data: This past Friday the Non-Farm Employment Change numbers came in wildly below the 106,000 jobs added estimate, the result of only 12,000 hired was rather shocking, but met with almost muted bewilderment. Also, the jobs numbers showed another revision lower from the previous month. Advanced GDP quarterly numbers, on Wednesday the 30th of October, also missed their estimate coming in with a 2.8% gain compared to anticipated growth of 3.0%. The U.S economy is still under stress.

4. Barometers: Risk adverse trading has been widespread the past handful of weeks. While gold has reached new highs and is slightly below the 2,750.00 mark for the moment, one month from now will be a telltale for gold and many assets. Since the end of September a number of narratives have been heard trying to explain the results seen across the board, but the simple answer is caution has entered the markets. U.S equity indices are still flirting with highs, even as they have suffered downturns in recent trading. WTI Crude Oil is near 71.50 USD per barrel. Gold, U.S equities and WTI Crude Oil will react to the outcome of the U.S election and serve as solid behavioral sentiment indicators in one month when compared to current prices.

3. Federal Reserve: If last week’s U.S economic data had been delivered without the fanfare of the U.S election approaching, Fed observers would likely be anticipating a dovish sounding FOMC Statement coming on the 7th of November. Instead, the USD has remained rather strong as risk adverse trading has been demonstrated in the broad markets. The Fed is certainly in a position to cut the Federal Funds Rate by another 0.25 basis points, some could even argue for another 0.50% cut. However, the Fed is likely to cut interest rates by a quarter of a point and sound rather cautious as they too read the landscape in the wake of the U.S voting results. Mid-term outlook from the Fed will be scrutinized this Thursday.

2: Nervousness: Day traders who decide to participate in the broad markets near-term may also enjoy walking outside and looking at approaching storms and dreaming about the fury about to come. Being anxious before and during large risk events when outcomes are unknown is a survival instinct. Speculators need to protect themselves over the next couple of days. Tranquil trading in all major assets may appear, but as tomorrow grows long assets will begin to percolate and by Wednesday almost all financial markets will be boiling. While this is certainly being hailed as the most important week of the year because of the U.S election and the Federal Reserve, it is also a very dangerous time to be trading. Those with limited funds may want to hunker down in a safe place and watch the markets create bedlam over the next 48 hours.

1. U.S Election: The vote is less than one day away when old standards are considered. However, more than 72 million votes have been cast early in the U.S already. That’s more than 45% of the total U.S vote during 2020, when 158,434,567 votes were counted. While the media bangs the drum regarding the incoming results tomorrow, it is important to note that many Americans and global observers are merely waiting for the final results to be announced. The end of the election campaign is nearly upon us, now financial institutions and traders await clarity. Wednesday the 6th of November is going to be an interesting day for the markets.

postR174

Implications of a 48th President on the 20th January 2025

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

Implications of a 48th President on the 20th January 2025

Presidential news and questions are moving fast, but the coming weeks and months may become a political nightmare if challenges are not handled pragmatically. Financial markets opened this morning with risk appetite reduced, as cautious trading swept through financial assets on the news President Joe Biden would not seek re-election in November of this year. Hyperbole is dangerous and noise can cause unwanted nervous reactions in financial markets when there are unknowns.

postR174

Taking into account possible risk factors is important for mid and long-term outlooks. Financial institutions and traders should consider the potential of a rather dangerous political situation developing in the United States over the next few months. First off, will Kamala Harris now get the nomination from the Democrats to run for President in November? There are no certainties and Democratic power brokers may have other potential candidates in mind, which will create less clarity for investors.

Worse, what if there is a 48th President being sworn into office on the 20th of January 2025? Joe Biden, the 46th President, has in no uncertain terms publicly admitted he does not have the capacity to run for the Presidency in the coming U.S election. Does this also mean that he does not have the ability to run the nation until another President takes over following the November election and January inauguration? What would happen if the 25th Amendment of the U.S Constitution dealing with presidential succession and disability comes into force? If Biden is seen as unfit to rule now, he would have to be replaced and Vice President Harris would assume power.

What happens if Harris is forced to take control and becomes the 47th President of the United States before the U.S election is held or even afterwards? The 25th Amendment will become a talking point by political foes of President Biden, and maybe even by those who admire him. The question about Biden’s ability to make correct cognitive decisions between now and the inauguration in January is not a far fetched conspiratorial concern anymore.

How would financial markets react to Biden being replaced by Harris as President in the coming weeks or months? What would happen to U.S foreign policy? The U.S is not set up like Parliamentary political systems to have caretaker governments simply help guide a nation until a new government can be formed. The 25th Amendment and its use could be demanded in order to remove Joe Biden if he is currently unfit to serve, and this opens the door to chaotic U.S executive administration developments and decisions in the months ahead.

The fact that Biden has not been able to make a public announcement regarding his decision not to seek re-election, and will only speak to the U.S public later this week per his letter yesterday is troubling. Is Biden’s health so bad that he cannot perform the job of U.S President today? Section three of the 25th Amendment allows for the Vice President to be transferred power if the current President is unable to discharge their duties until fit again.

However, section four of the 25th Amendment allows the Vice President and cabinet to declare the current President incapable of performing their duties. The Vice President and the current President’s cabinet allows them to decide and issue a statement to the Senate and House leaders declaring the President is unable to govern and is unfit to voluntarily transfer power to the Vice President. Yes, there are timetables involved regarding the President’s capacity to be judged again and reconsidered for the resumption of power, but the U.S Constitution does open the door for a President to be removed permanently if they cannot perform their jobs by the President’s cabinet.

So again, what will happen over the coming weeks and months? Critics of Joe Biden will certainly claim he is not capable of governing and demand proof of his ability in the coming days. A growing chorus is likely to emerge expressing doubts about Biden’s ability to lead. Politics will be a factor in the potential game which will get loud. Republicans will certainly claim if Biden cannot run for President in November, that he likely cannot run the country until a new President is elected.

Politics have delivered a lot of noise this past weekend, but investors should expect the turmoil to grow in sound as people question the leadership of the U.S and ask for proof that Biden is in charge. The U.S elected Joe Biden to be President, not his appointed cabinet. If Biden is not able to prove he can do the job, there are legitimate reasons to consider a transfer of power to Kamala Harris.

At this juncture it appears the Republicans are in the drivers seat politically regarding the November elections. The Republicans may take control of the Senate, remain in charge of the House and attain the White House. Will Kamala Harris have to perform a caretaker government until the 20th of January 2025? Investors and day traders should keep these risk scenarios in mind.

postR192

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Fireworks for the 5th of July 2024

by with No Comment AMT MarketsAssetsFeatured Highlights

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Fireworks for the 5th of July 2024

postR192

10. Grudge: Ireland and the Springboks begin their rugby two match competition this Saturday in Loftus Stadium, Pretoria. Anticipation is palpable in South Africa. The weather is forecast to be good and the game is expected to be better. The battle between the Green Machines is real. The second game will be played on the 13th of July in Durban.

9. Digital Jitters: Bitcoin is trading near 54,300.00 USD as of this writing. As analysis filters in to explain this particular downturn which essentially began on the 7th of June, the fact is that BTC/USD has become a playground for institutional gamblers while many in the public remain dubious. Excuses such as the U.S election potential outcome and Fed monetary policy are all likely false narratives. Speculation is your answer.

8. Correlations: The USD/ZAR is near the 18.20500 mark, and the USD/MXN is around 18.06000 as of this morning. The South African Rand and Mexican Peso are not correlated, except as currencies that are witnessing a strong amount of political sentiment generate trading behavior in financial institutions which are trying to judge their long-term outlooks. The coalition National Unity Government of South Africa, and the Morena political party of Mexico are in the spotlights and are being watched by anxious investors.

7. National Security: The race for quantum supremacy is real as nations issue significant controls over the export of computing mechanisms to unfriendly competitors as reported by the New Scientist website recently. And the smuggling of semiconductors which are ‘forbidden’ to China who are using organized underground operations in order that Nvidia AI processors can be obtained, was reported on by the Wall Street Journal two days ago.

6. Commodities: WTI Crude Oil is trading above 84.00 USD, the energy has sustained prices above $80.00 since the 17th of June and is approaching mid-term highs, the slight rise in price earlier this week may have been because of hurricane concerns, but buyers have remained strong this morning. Cocoa is still traversing around 8,456.00 USD per metric ton, as it bounces along mid-term technical support levels. In early January of this year Cocoa was trading at half its current value.

5. Jobs Numbers: One of the favorite tools used by salespeople to get day traders geared towards speculating blindly are the monthly U.S Non-Farm Employment Change numbers which will be published today. But because of the U.S Independence Day yesterday, many financial institutions are celebrating a long holiday weekend and will be mostly inactive. Data has become increasingly lackluster from the U.S the past two months with rather pessimistic GDP, PMI manufacturing and services outcomes. Traders considering a dip of their toes into the markets today should be aware that volumes are going to be low which opens the door for volatility. Who will be paying attention to the Average Hourly Earnings report?

4. Markets: U.S Treasury yields are within sight of three month lows, this as the major stock indices via the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 make noise at record highs. The Dow 30 is not at a high but within a healthy territory as bullish behavioral sentiment remains rather abundant. When full trading volumes return next week, there is reason to believe the summer rally may continue.

3. Bank of Japan: The USD/JPY is trading below the 161.000 level. Some analysts suspect the BoJ engaged in a limited intervention earlier this week when the currency pair approached the 162.000 vicinity. The Bank of Japan is playing a dangerous game with speculators. The next BoJ Outlook Report is not due until the 31st of July. Until then the USD/JPY apparently is going to traverse in a higher price range with the threat of a potentially engaged Bank of Japan lurking which can punish speculators if they get too comfortable betting on the bullish trend. The price of Gold should be watched as it traverses around 2,365.00 USD, which remains in sight of record highs that touched the 2,425.00 vicinity on the 20th of May. Retail purchasing of gold in Asia is strong as citizens of some nations try to hedge against inflation.

2. Fallout: The Presidency of Joe Biden remains vulnerable as media pundits who have long supported him lurch towards public criticism, and question Biden’s inability to handle unscripted situations. Talk of replacing Biden with another candidate to face Donald Trump remains fever pitched, but there are strong obstacles which will not allow an easy path to unseat the current President. Biden owns his delegates won via Primary voting. He would have to officially relinquish his delegates at the Democratic National Convention in order to allow for a new candidate. The Democratic political party also knows that Vice President Kamala Harris is not particularly well liked, but if Biden were pushed to the side it would open the door for a potentially messy challenge by Harris who would certainly want the Presidency. Getting her to bow out of the race could be another potential disaster for the Democrats, and help create a level of disdain which could trigger a huge landslide for the Republicans in November.

1. Trouncing: Political incompetence is not only a stronghold in the U.S, this as the U.K and France are proving. The GBP/USD is near 1.27685 as of this writing, the EUR/USD is around 1.08230. Both currency pairs have gained this week. The massive defeat of the Conservatives in the U.K last night, and Macron’s political weakness which may increase after the 2nd round of voting this coming Sunday in France has been digested by financial institutions. The GBP/USD and EUR/USD were punished over the past few weeks due to knowledge that the Tories in Britain would suffer a resounding humiliation, and the belief that Macron opened the door for a loss of clout. Financial institutions have proven they are keen observers of politics and are accustomed to shifts of direction via new forces. Some may also say that financial institutions are comfortable as long as they know where power resides in the ‘deep state’ bureaucracies of every nation.