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India Insider: From Farms to Factories An Unfinished Productivity Transition

by with No Comment Ben EzraBusinessCorporateEconomyExclusive ContentFeatured HighlightsIndiaInvestingRisk ManagementUncategorizedWorld

Striving to Make India the Best Version of Itself

Many East Asian economies in the last three decades have prospered because of large allocations using massive State subsidies to chosen sectors and respective industries via affordable credit while keeping interest rates at bare minimums. Wages were and remain suppressed to make industrialization possible through a transfer of savings from households to businesses – to help manufacturing thrive.

This has helped China and other East Asian Tiger nations to compete head to head with Western economies with fortified industries. Globalization also extended this phenomenon. Western economies offshored a lot manufacturing to countries that produced competitive goods to keep their corporate costs low – including wages, this while the majority of Western nations also shifted towards service sectors and consumption to generate solid performing GDPs.

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Nifty 50 One Year Chart as of 4th October 2026

This system ran extraordinarily well the last two decades, until trade deficits in the Western economies ignited agitation amongst citizens and inside the government offices of policymakers from Brussels to Washington. In order to create jobs for their own people and protect their legacy industries from losses, countries are increasingly discussing protectionism, illegal immigration, and restricting access on critical technologies.

Irrespective of the tranquility and results in the past, this after the Latin American and Asian financial crises caused by the abrupt policy shifts. Changes to the free flow of capital and trade have shown they can disrupt exporting based economies faster than many governments could handle the challenging circumstances appropriately.

India is one of the nations’ standing at this new crossroad. It has favorable trade relations with many partners. Though India runs a trade surplus of good with the United States and Europe, its trade with China and Russia is clearly unilateral – Beijing and Moscow holds advantages.

To compete with external trade partners like Vietnam, China and Korea, India wants to allocate expertise into high tech manufacturing like semi-conductors, electronics, and other preferred sectors. Problematically, because every State in India follows a different industrial policy according to their own political aspirations and needs, it’s difficult for New Delhi to dictate policies that align with central government objectives cohesively.

Changing the Playing Field to Accommodate Growth

The experience of industrial bases like Germany, Japan and the East Asian economies show that manufacturing growth requires coordinated policy. Ironically in India, after the 1991 economic reforms, no structured national manufacturing gameplan existed until 2011.

Industrial strategy should provide better support for land acquisition by the government with generous terms to landowners for agricultural lands, rather than merely leaving it to private corporate interests. Less bureaucratic labor law reforms would help too.

The 1991 industrial policy statement reduced the barriers to entry for private industry, deregulating, abolishing the monopolies and restrictive trade practices act of 1969, and significantly reduced import duties. This remained a focused policy pillar over two decades. However, there remained a number of gaps that still need to be improved.

The “new economy narrative” discussed by the Indian government needs a realistic perspective. For example, policy makers in the government argue that PLI (Performance Linked Incentive) which started in 2021 is an answer for reviving sector specific manufacturing. But not everyone is convinced. PLI is based on subsidies that provide incentives to generate output in fourteen highly import dependent sectors (especially for imports to China) that are extremely capital intensive in character. This has happened at a time when India needs to create more quality jobs in manufacturing, but faces hurdles.

The PLI has issues because the system requires many firms apply for the incentive subsidy to increase production in their chosen sectors, and the government will be in charge of picking winning firms (rather than sectors). This is the opposite of the practiced industrial policy of the East Asian Tiger miracle economies and what underlaid their success in export oriented manufacturing growth. The East Asian nations only selected industries to support, they did not ‘pre-pick’ winning firms.

The Soviet Example: Agriculture as a Competitive Lever?

During the Brezhnev era in the Soviet Union, most everyone in the top government positions of the now disbanded nation knew something was wrong economically. The Soviet Union was a giant bureaucracy that wanted to manage all production according to misguided yearly targets – the failure was only a matter of time as the utopian economic system imploded upon itself with malfeasance.

In the 1970s within the Soviet Union the immense influx of hard currency achieved from energy exports masked severe domestic failures, particularly in agriculture. Instead of investing the trade surplus into modernizing domestic infrastructure, the Kremlin was forced to use its Petrodollars to import vast quantities of Eastern grain and agricultural products to compensate for chronic harvest failures and feed its population.

By the early 1980s, the Soviet Union’s trade profile resembled that of a developing nation: exporting raw unrefined materials to purchase food and finished goods. When global oil prices crashed in the mid-1980s, the Soviet Union trade balance plunged into severe deficit and never recovered. Stripping the state of the hard currency it needed to survive.

Likewise, despite being an agriculturally important nation, India is forced to import massive quantities of specific agricultural goods due to low domestic yields. For instance, researchers had long predicted a rise in prices of Tamil Nadu State agricultural commodities due to a shortage of agrarian areas and stagnant growth in irrigation. Farmers are turning away from paddy cultivation because the returns fail to cover costs. Increased farm wages, machinery rentals, irrigation costs, fertilizer and pesticide prices have steeply driven up the costs of crops in Tamil Nadu. Consequently, paddy farmers are trapped in a cycle of debt and economic distress.

Although agriculture employs nearly half of India’s workforce, it contributes only about 15-18% of GDP. Outputs per workers are low. Tiny landholdings, low yields, dependence on the monsoon, and depleted groundwater limit productivity, this while subsidies and procurement favor rice and wheat over diversification. Poor storage, weak credit access for small scale farming, low investment opportunities add to problems and limited non-farm jobs keep surplus labor stuck on farms. India remains a net agricultural exporter achieving about $51.9 billion USD in 2024-25, but despite this higher valued Agri-export composition is not sufficient.

Policy Decisions and Competitive Companies

India’s services exports and remittances have created a persistent source of Forex earnings. The resulting accumulation of foreign exchange reserves provides an external capacity to import vital capital goods, technology and other productive tools to create benefits. The challenge is to convert this external surplus into better domestic productive capacity. This can be done by investing in infrastructure including logistics, energy, worker skillsets, technology development, improved ports and warehousing – and other foundations required for manufacturing and developing superior values in agriculture.

Improving the infrastructure for success is crucial, but importantly the Indian government should not attempt to pre-ordain winners through the PLI. Choosing winners can become a doomed strategy when the State tries to determine in advance which firms, technologies or industries will ultimately become globally competitive as capitalism plays out and companies ascend or fail sometimes.

The East Asian experience suggests that industrial policy can support selected sectors, but competitiveness ultimately has to be tested through productivity and export markets. The role of the State should therefore create conditions in which winners can emerge through competition within the marketplace, as they manage finance, technology and their workforces – which will help the companies strive to become the best versions of themselves.

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India Insider: A Giant Bureaucracy Needs an Urgent Reset

by with No Comment AssetsBen EzraCentral BanksCorporateEquitiesExclusive ContentFeatured HighlightsFinancial InstitutionsIndiaInvestingUncategorizedWorld

Paperwork Cyclones and Slow Pace Confront Indian Citizens and Corporate Investment

Almost every single day Indians are confronted by massive bureaucratic problems when they have to approach the government for basic services. When this will change?

For example if you apply for an Aadhaar card (which is used for proof of identity and address in India), birth certificate or ration card (used primarily for getting subsidized groceries in government run stores), or want an electricity connection or passport, you have to move through a myriad of unnecessary bureaucracy in many government offices.

Recently, I went to renew my passport which was authorized and overseen in a regional passport office in Tiruchirappalli of the Tamil Nadu State. To my astonishment, there were no single chairs or any other type of sitting amenities for visitors carrying their applications. Visitors had to sit down on the floor outside the passport office.

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India Insider: A Giant Bureaucracy Needs an Urgent Reset

Also applicants inside the premises had no access to office drinking water or restroom facilities. And the waiting hours were too long. The authorities there treat people like teachers treating students, making normal people wonder why they have to apply for their  passports by undergoing this giant bureaucracy as if it were a psychology test of some sort. Many people pour their anger and frustrations onto online forums complaining about the mistreatment.

Some of these people likely wondered how India despite showcasing it can send satellites to space and the Chandrayaan to the moon, doesn’t seem to have a stable, nor easier services for the day to day needs of the people regarding government affairs.

The government may argue that due to large numbers of people constantly applying for various forms and certificates, and a lack of adequate staff, things are more than a little complex in many overburdened government departments. But the fact the government seems to miss and a critical point people are driven to anger about, is that the nation collect taxes from its citizens to insure adequate services which are not fulfilled comfortably in most cases.

Indian citizens are not applying empty handed for a passport and expecting charity or miracles from the government, rather they pay an accepted fee to the passport office. Thus, it’s the duty of the government bureaucracies to be held accountable.

In government run local panchayats (rural government assemblies), there is always rampant corruption. An example can be given regarding the simple renewing of a business license. Corruption is a common thing. Vishalini (name changed) told me that she had to pay a 5000 Rupees fee ($51 USD) in 2019 in order to bribe a local panchayat to get her father’s death certificate

Imagine what would happen if some officers from the government or its employees, went to a restaurant and they were treated badly and charged $20 instead of $2 for a Dosa or Vada Pav. Would they silently pay the bill with cash not resisting, or would they fight back and ask questions?

As a former Forex broker working in the Indian financial markets and servicing retail clients, I have witnessed how this bureaucracy has worked. In April 2024, the authorities simply banned the exchange traded currency derivatives market that allowed retail speculators, small scale exporters and importers to hedge their exposure, wagering on the direction of the Rupee against 4 currencies – the EUR, GBP, Yen and USD. Many clients lost money, because they couldn’t sell at the available market price and some of the trades were liquidated by brokers’ risk management systems when the directive was put into force. The authorities neither compensated, nor took responsibility for these actions. The government action was decisive and swift.

Almost everyone in India knows that we have ‘missed the boat’ by making small manufacturing detrimentally hard due to red tape, poor infrastructure and giant bureaucracy. Free enterprise and entrepreneurship create innovation, less government intervention and greater economic freedom could allow small scale manufacturing to flourish.

Not Only Indian Citizens Suffer, So Do Investors

India has huge gaps to fill, but even if someone injects capital for an infrastructure project, makes money, and is creating jobs, there are still many things to be done about the burden of bureaucracy. The results of government inefficiency and corruption also creates hurdles and disadvantages for investors who would like to participate in India’s growth story with much needed foreign money.

India’s enormous bureaucracy needs urgent improvement and progress in order to facilitate and revitalize its approval system to receive Aadhaar cards, marriage certificates and even death certificate in a more timely manner. Everything can and should be digitized, so people don’t have to wait in long cues to verify or get new documents.  

A lack of effective and transparent services in government offices have to be dealt with effectively. Standards need to be created, upheld and checked on regularly, a host of problems need to be eradicated. Indian citizens would benefit.

India is a current account deficit country and it needs foreign direct capital to help finance its deficit. Investment opportunities need to be made easier for financial institutions abroad to facilitate capital inflows into India so it is less reliant on its own domestic borrowing and savings. Weak frameworks and institutional voids create problems. For India to reverse the weakened foreign direct investment being demonstrated and attract meaningful capital, fundamental changes need to take place, we cannot rely on mere hope for more favorable diversification cycles from abroad. With better policies implemented by the government, India can attract global investment funds easier and help foster improvements for all.

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India Insider: Women in Agriculture Need Manufacturing Power

by with No Comment Featured HighlightsIndiaInvesting

India Insider: Women in Agriculture Need Manufacturing Power

India has long been a society that has neglected Women’s Empowerment. While various states pursue proactive policies to enhance the role of women in society, their inclusion in the job market and ability to have financial independence is still lacking.

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Small Scale Farm in Tiruvannamalai, India

In the suburbs of Tiruvannamalai City, in Tamil Nadu, Mrs. Revathi runs an agricultural farm where she grows rice, flowers, and vegetables. She sells them to local commission agents or directly to customers from her farm. Mrs. Revathi, who lost her husband in 2019, has two daughters, both of whom are educated and working. One of the daughters is getting married. She said that although agriculture helps her family earn money, it does not lift them out of the poverty trap because of uneven flower cultivation. The land is becoming less and less suitable for irrigation – a matter that worries her greatly too. Flowers are one of the major sources of income for many farming families in Tiruvannamalai City in Tamil Nadu.

This is just a small example of the challenges faced by women working in agriculture.
According to recent Periodic Labor Force Surveys, 64.4% of women in India work in agriculture, compared to only 36.3% of men.

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Labor Workforce Percentage in India per Gender

Self employment and Access to Credit is not the Solution:

Many argue that self-employment and steady access to credit via microfinance institutions will help women become entrepreneurs and create movement up the social ladder. This is true in some cases, but many women struggle with raising families in their husband’s absence, and when working on farms where agricultural productivity is lopsided or unfit for growing vegetables or corn, times remain difficult.

First of all, why do women choose agriculture and remain small-time sellers? Because they are not able to find employment easily in formal sectors like manufacturing or other service oriented businesses.

Even within related agricultural sectors, women employed in vegetable processing plants, or value-added goods like masala manufacturing and tomato sauce production companies earn higher wages.

Unfortunately, low productivity and long spells of inactivity render agricultural workers significantly underemployed periodically. They are stuck, with nowhere else to go. Unlike in East Asian nations, which created mass employment through dynamic exports of manufactured goods, the Indian manufacturing sector’s low productivity makes it globally uncompetitive.

Manufacturing as a Solution for Women Empowerment:

Across Asia manufacturing has proven to be a powerful driver for upwards mobility. Incomes have risen, poverty has declined, and women are central parts of this transformation. In Vietnam, where a factory boom has been especially momentous, more than 68 percent of women and girls over 15 years of age are working for pay in some capacity, this according to data compiled by the World Bank. In China the rate is 63 percent, in Thailand 59 percent, and in Indonesia 53 percent of workers in manufacturing are women. Yet in India, less than 33 percent of women account for the workforce in recorded in official surveys.

In a pattern demonstrated in many industrializing societies, when more women gain jobs, families promptly invest further in education for girls. Manufacturing also lifts household spending power, fueling economic expansion that encourages investors to build more factories, providing additional jobs and reciprocal wealth creation. India is missing out on this dynamic manufacturing growth and is failing to broadly participate in the spread of improved industrialization which has helped bolster fortunes in many Asian economies and benefitted families. A vital component for a stronger Indian economy necessitates the empowerment of women.

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India Insider: Manufacturing Strategy to Create Rural Jobs

by with No Comment BusinessFeatured HighlightsIndia

India Insider: Manufacturing Strategy to Create Rural Jobs

Across much of India’s rural landscape, manufacturing remains scarce and finding a solution for this remains a priority. While some towns do have small scale industries that offer jobs, this is still limited. As of financial year 2023, agriculture accounts for only 16% of India’s GDP, down sharply from around 35% in the 1990s, due to a structural shift toward services and manufacturing.

A large share of rural families still depend on agriculture, often engaging in farming and irrigation with modern equipment. However, marketing their produce remains a persistent challenge. Meanwhile, many rural workers are engaged in low-wage trade and commerce, often in informal settings such as small shops and roadside businesses. These roles typically offer limited income and little upward mobility. Falling real wages have pushed many to migrate to India’s urban centers or venture overseas to Singapore, Malaysia, and the Gulf countries in search of better livelihoods, aided by favorable exchange rates.

Capitalism and Efficient Manufacturing

Adam Smith, in his seminal work The Wealth of Nations wrote that, ‘it is not by gold or silver, but by labor that all the wealth of nations is created’. This fundamental idea underpins the modern economic thought that wealth is not derived merely from money, but from the productive capacity of people.

When capital is invested in a capitalist enterprise, it generates profits for the owner, provides wages for employees, and delivers returns (such as dividends) for shareholders. But this cycle of value creation depends on active and efficient enterprise, particularly manufacturing which has been missing or underdeveloped in many parts of rural India.

Unlike countries such as the United States, where people readily relocate across States, India faces some unique challenges. Like the European Union, India is a union of diverse linguistic and cultural regions. It is uncommon for a small business owner from Himachal Pradesh to directly access markets in Tamil Nadu or Karnataka due to language barriers, cultural differences, and logistical constraints. These frictions further isolate rural producers from wider markets.

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Garment Industry Values in India, Bangladesh and Vietnam

Strategic Solutions and the Role of State Governments

To revive rural economies, business people along with their state governments must identify and invest in strategic sectors that create jobs and add value. Kerala is a fine example: as one of India’s top spice-producing States, Kerala has the potential to establish local industries focused on spice processing, packaging, and export. Coordination between agriculture and manufacturing can generate employment, stimulate local economies, and enhance foreign exchange earnings.

Albert Hirschman, a development economist, highlighted this approach through his theory of unbalanced growth and economic integration. He argued that certain industries have strong reciprocal connections with other parts of the economy. By prioritizing sectors with good synergy potential, developing countries can achieve significant growth even with limited resources.

Growing competition from countries like Bangladesh and Vietnam which both enjoy favorable trade agreements do pose new challenges, this must be taken seriously by India and create a focus on forward looking international commerce. There will always be competition from distant enterprises and nations, this must be accepted and planned for via commercial insights.

Within India is Tiruppur, a city in Tamil Nadu, known as the ‘Manchester of South India’ due to its vibrant textile industry. The city has created an ecosystem of manufacturing that consistently offers higher real wages compared to other towns in the region. It has successfully shifted labor from agriculture to industry, thereby increasing productivity and income. It is a bright example and defines one way to make progress.

Protecting New Industries and Creation of Success

In his book How Rich Countries Got Rich and Why Poor Countries Stay Poor, economist Erik Reinert argues that nations develop not just by doing what they are currently good – such as agriculture or mining, but by nurturing industries that can become more productive long-term. Typically manufacturing and technology sectors lead to greater innovation and economic resilience.

Reinert provides numerous examples, like South Korea’s emerging growth in steel and its automotive industries, and Ireland’s rise in information technology where specific protections and support for young industries has led to long-term prosperity.

India’s rural transformation cannot rely on New Delhi alone. State governments along with business people must take the lead by identifying sectors that have the potential to foster high growth and employment. Helping to create local value chains, investing in infrastructure, training, and market access will build resilience in these communities. By encouraging small-scale manufacturing and leveraging regional strengths, the country’s rural areas can become engines of economic growth.

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Trading Optimism for 2024 and Pursuit of Castles in the Air

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

Trading Optimism for 2024 and Pursuit of Castles in the Air

Traders may feel like horses being kept in their stables right now. The desire to run freely in Forex and other markets is certainly being felt, this as many analysts have jumped onto optimistic bandwagons and are pointing to the U.S Federal Reserve and its rather dovish outlook for 2024. Gold in early trading this morning is lingering near highs and the USD remains within weaker territory when technical charts are inspected via one month results.

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Gold Three Month Chart as of 2nd January 2024

Yet, thin holiday trading is full in effect. Light volumes will continue to be seen early this week after the New Year’s celebrations. Financial institutions will open their doors today, but their corporate clients around the world will have plenty of employees who will remain on vacation until the 8th of January. Thus, while day traders may feel enticed to wager in the markets with various CFDs, they should be careful and understand unbalanced positions may cause temporary chaos. Risk taking tactics should be carefully considered.

The desire to dream about castles in the air is a source of comfort for many new day traders. But remaining realistic about potential results, while not getting overly ambitious about targets is an important aspect for all speculators. While trends may look attractive in Forex, commodities and equities a well planned approach regarding risk taking is a practical road. Castles in the air tend to vanish.

Optimism will be a word frequently heard in the coming days and weeks, and here’s to wishing everyone a prosperous and peaceful 2024. The potential of a more dovish U.S Federal Reserve regarding monetary policy and declining Treasury yields sparking more risk appetite in equities as investors seek solid returns is alluring, however risks remain on the table. The economy of China continues to worry analysts and tensions in the Middle East are still a long way from being solved.

However, the biggest cause for speculative concerns during 2024 may come from elections in Taiwan, India, South Africa and the United States. Taiwan’s presidential vote is on the 13th of January. China will certainly be watching the results, and traders should expect to hear swords rattling afterwards and then hope the noise calms down.

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USD/ZAR One Year Chart as of 2nd January 2024

Tranquil voting results in India will be welcomed by investors. India is becoming a noteworthy economic giant, its rapid growth and ascension as an important investment vehicle needs to remain stable. South Africa remains troubled domestically by concerns regarding corruption and inefficiency, its upcoming spring election results may not solve the problems it faces. There will be many elections in Africa this year, which could spur on considerations regarding geopolitical alliances and the price of commodities.

The U.S election late in 2024 will start to grow in noise as the months progress and by early this summer behavioral sentiment will begin to become nervous regarding the outcomes for the White House and Congress. The U.S appears to be braced for an election between Joe Biden and Donald Trump and this will certainly cause skittish storms.

Traders should feel confident about risk appetite in the global markets improving, but they should keep in mind that impetus coming from many different spheres can affect the financial world.

Tuesday, 2nd of January, U.S Final Manufacturing PMI – today’s Purchasing Managers Index is expected to show a slight improvement, but the results may fall on deaf ears because many market participants will not be around to react due to the fact they are still on vacation.

Wednesday, 3rd of January, U.S ISM Manufacturing Prices – this inflation survey from purchasing managers may be given a bit of attention, but its effect may be limited because of light trading volumes still being exhibited.

Thursday, 4th of January, Germany Preliminary CPI – the inflation data from Germany will get some consideration, and the result is expected to show a slight increase. Services PMI data will also come from European Union nations, the U.K and U.S.

Friday, 5th of January, U.S Non-Farm Employment Change and Average Hourly Earnings – the jobs reports will get the notice of financial institutions. The results for employment and wages are expected to be slightly weaker than the previous month’s outcomes. Typically these numbers would cause a stir, but unless there are surprises, most financial institutions may not react massively to the reports because it remains a ‘holiday’ week. If the numbers come in weaker than expected this could cause interesting reactions on the 8th of January and weaker USD sentiment.

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Friday Barometer Regarding the BoE Decision and Gold Prices

by with No Comment AMT MarketsAssetsFeatured Highlights

Friday Barometer Regarding the BoE Decision and Gold Prices

The Bank of England’s rate hike of 0.50% cements the notion that global central banks remain steadfastly locked on inflation, and understand politically the implications on the public regarding higher consumer prices which are being experienced. The Bank of England ‘met’ before its Official Bank Rate announcement with corporate bank executives it was whispered, to discuss their concerns regarding the knock on affects of higher mortgage rates to come. However, this did not stop the BoE from being aggressive.

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GBP/USD Three Month Chart as of 23rd June 2023

Is the BoE Move a Sign Regarding the Fed’s Next Decision?

The move by the BoE also is intriguing because the larger than expected hike puts into play the notion the U.S Fed may be raising the Federal Funds Rate in July. The reasoning is based on the idea the Bank of England wants to protect the British Pound from another interest rate hike from the Fed, thus ‘securing’ the value of GBP/USD Forex mechanics.

The U.S Federal Reserve, the BoE and ECB finally seem to have a grasp on import inflation implications. Although higher costs and dynamic pressures on exporting countries like China, India and others that face the gauntlet of these challenges remains critical, because these nations need to raise the costs of manufactured goods internationally when they sell.

Smart Money and the Value of Gold

Let’s talk about ‘smart money’ for a moment surrounding Gold – and please try to hold down your laughter – but the price of the precious metal is interesting and should be monitored even by folks who do not trade the commodity. Gold as of this morning is near the 1915.00 USD ratio.

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Gold Six Month Chart as of 23rd June 2022

On the 4th of May the price of the precious metal momentarily challenged the 2080.00 level. On the 1st of June the price of the commodity was near 1985.00. Do you see a trend here? Please note, Gold isn’t going to zero.

The point to be made is that the build up in the price of the precious metal from the 22nd of November 2022 when Gold was around the 1625.00 USD per ounce level, until early May anticipated the U.S Federal Reserve was going to become more dovish regarding their interest rate polkicy. For consideration look at the price of the USD during this time too, against many major currencies – the value of the USD also started to come down.

‘Smart money’ is showing signs of nervousness certainly since the start of June that more hikes are feared from the Federal Reserve. However, the price of Gold and the USD are not correlating well at this moment. This is a potential sign that Gold and the USD are both within speculative trading zones in which financial institutions are seeking ‘true’ equilibrium and are not comfortable. Fragility in the financial marketplace is likely to be seen until the Federal Reserve Federal Funds Rate announcement late in July. Expect financial institutions to price in their outlooks respectively depending on their outlooks.

Gold and U.S Treasuries: Inverted Interest Rate Implications

Gold definitely fluctuates within daily trading conditions, it is a speculative commodity, but it is also a solid barometer of risk management among the elite. If financial institutions are in favor of buying items like U.S bonds because of their guaranteed short term interest payments (look at the fact U.S Treasuries are mostly inverted – meaning shorter term bond interest rates are paying higher returns compared to longer term bonds) instead of buying Gold as an investment tool.

The Gold and USD Forex dynamics tells us that investment institutions are still very nervous about the Fed potentially raising interest rates a couple of more times this year. July and late this year appear to be reasonable bets. This Fed consideration and concern remains legitimate while looking forward as long as inflation remains elevated in the U.S. However, the Federal Reserve must also feel comfortable they will not kill mid and small sized banks, which by now should have shifted their business practices allowing for slightly higher interest rates to be delivered.