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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Interpretations on the 13th of Oct

by with No Comment Central BanksCryptocurrenciesFeatured Highlights

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Interpretations on the 13th of Oct

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10. Language: The French word histoirie includes both history and story via its English interpretation. The French usage conveys the acknowledgement that history is often subjective and a story written with an opinion which may or may not be the correct narrative.

9. Subway Series: New York baseball fans will be in an uproar this coming week as the Mets play the Los Angeles Dodgers, and the Yankees face the Cleveland Guardians. The potential of a crosstown World Series will have NYC holding its collective breath. New York fans shouldn’t celebrate too soon, because the Dodgers are dangerous and the Guardians will be competitive.

8. Free Press: CBS News in the U.S has been widely condemned this past week. Video released shows ’60 Minutes’ explicitly edited an interview with Kamala Harris. Also, a recorded and ‘leaked’ staff meeting from CBS management has come to light in which Tony Dokoupil, a news anchor, is reprimanded for asking critical questions to writer Ta-Nehisi Coates.

7. Barometers: Gold went into this weekend near 2,656.00, WTI Crude Oil closed around 75.45 on Friday, and U.S Treasury yields increased this week and are now challenging values last seen in the third week of August. Intriguingly, the major U.S equity indices continue to flirt with highs. Broad market results appear to be walking a tightrope as financial institutions seem to be waiting for November and U.S election outcomes. However, long-term investors who are diversified maybe cynical of this thought, and believe buy and hold remains the best policy.

6. Buy or Sell: Negativity surrounding Boeing via workers who are on strike, layoffs, a potential corporate bonds downgrade, production delays, and court decisions are still shadowing. In December of 2023, Boeing was near 265.00 USD per share value. Prices were near 158.00 this time last year, and as of this weekend Boeing is close to 151.00. The bad news surrounding Boeing has been a thorn in the side of investors. Boeing is a major corporation in the U.S and relied upon militarily and for global public aviation. What is the downside potential for Boeing the next year compared to upside capabilities long-term?

5. Crypto: The SEC has filed charges against Cumberland DRW LLC, claiming the crypto exchange has been acting as an unregistered dealer. https://www.sec.gov/enforcement-litigation/litigation-releases/lr-26151 It appears the SEC is growing more aggressive via confrontations with U.S based cryptocurrency exchanges. The U.S election result will play a role in the future leadership and direction of the SEC, and could have an affect on cryptocurrency values. BTC/USD is near 62,700.00, ETH/USD around 2,465.00, BNB/USD about 575.00 at the time of this writing.

4. Tranquility: Stronger USD centric price action continues to create some downwards motion for other major currencies, but price velocity was not as violent last week compared to previous days since the end of September. Fragile sentiment in financial institutions is still stirring. The ECB rate decision this week will come Thursday and a 0.25 basis point cut is expected. Traders need to remember that a change to the European Central Bank’s Main Refinancing Rate has likely been priced into the EUR/USD. What needs to be heard now is ECB rhetoric and that is likely to remain guarded. Price velocity in Forex remains a danger for retail traders this coming week.

3. U.S Election: There are only three weeks left until the U.S vote. Day traders need to understand financial institutions will grow more cautious as the election approaches. Speculators may want to try and wager on the outcome of the election, but unless a definitive result is predictable beforehand, it will be hard to take advantage of political winds which are swirling. It will be nearly impossible for day traders to hold onto a position over the next few weeks unless they have deep pockets, use no leverage, and have the patience of a saint.

2. Make or Break: China will release important economic data this week. Trade Balance and Foreign Direct Investment numbers are tentatively scheduled to be released on Monday, along with New Loans reporting. This coming Friday New Homes Sales, GDP, and Retail Sales figures will be released. China is trying to stimulate the economy with billions of cash, but critics suggests this will not work. The Shanghai Composite Index is near the 3,217 mark, on the 30th of September the SSE was near 3,675. Before the China stimulus was released the Shanghai Composite was near 2,755. Bullish SSE momentum has run into headwinds since the beginning of October, China may be pressured to try and create more stimulus, but will it produce a lasting positive result? Traders caught up in the buying frenzy in late September are likely getting more nervous about declines. The USD/CNY is near 7.066. Chinese economic data should be monitored this week.

1. Interest Rates: The Federal Reserve via the CPI and PPI inflation reports still appears able to cut another 0.25 basis point from the Federal Funds Rate on the 7th of November. While the Consumer Price Index data showed a slight tick up in a few categories, Friday’s Producer Price Index met expectations via the core monthly report and the broad monthly outcome came in less than anticipated. The November interest rate decision is important regarding consistency per the Fed’s messaging the past two months, and mid-term behavioral sentiment outlook among financial institutions. U.S Retail Sales and Housing numbers will be published this week.

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Concerns for the 6th of October

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Concerns for the 6th of October

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10. Ya Gotta Believe: The New York Mets are finding ways to score in the late innings. Having won with last minute runs against the Atlanta Braves in the 8th and 9th innings early last week to save their season, hitting a home run to take the lead against the Brewers in the deciding game of the Wild Card in the 9th, and last night’s 5 runs in the 8th to take the lead in Game One against the Phillies in the Division Series has been rather remarkable. Game two between the Mets and Philadelphia will be played later today.

9. Information Technology: OpenAI’s value is now estimated around 157 billion USD, this after their latest round of investments garnered that includes both Nvidia and Microsoft funding. The search engine arms race will continue to get tougher and more competitive, but recent data released by Statcounter shows that Google still has over 90% of the U.S search engine traffic. While it has lost some ground in the search engine battles to upstarts statistically, Google remains dominant. Microsoft has made inroads with Bing, and Yahoo has also gained, but Google’s stranglehold via browser usage remains strong.

8. Helene Meets Milton: A pair of hurricanes – this if Milton fulfills forecasts and becomes a major storm – are not helping create easy days in the U.S Southeast, nor for the Biden administration. Criticism regarding a lack of government help has been heard in the aftermath of Helene and with another potential punch about to be delivered by Milton, U.S relief agencies like FEMA will certainly be pushed to the limit organizationally.

7. Oil Alerts: WTI Crude Oil went into the weekend close to 75.00 USD per barrel as nervousness increased about the potential of an attack on Iranian oil infrastructure. While many nations in the West do not purchase Iranian Crude Oil openly, the Iranian commodity is sold to China at nearly an 89% ratio. This allows oil from other suppliers like Saudi Arabia, the U.S and Mexico to sell elsewhere and the price of Crude Oil to remain relatively tame. However, if the supply of Iranian Crude Oil were suddenly to be crippled for any length of time, the price of the commodity from the other major suppliers would certainly go higher if expanded demand needs to be met. Speculators should pay attention to strike prices in the energy sectors via options trading in the future markets to understand potential vulnerabilities that large players may be anticipating.

6. Precious Metal: Gold prices remain within sight of record values, but below the apex values seen on the 26th of September. Risk sentiment, speculative forces and long-term investors are seemingly creating resilient support levels. Gold went into this weekend near the 2,653.00 USD ratio. Silver remains near 32.00 USD per ounce, which is where its price was traversing in May. Speculators intent on betting that silver will rise because nervous market conditions will create more demand need to be careful. A vast supply of silver exists in known mines globally, and producers simply need to extract more of the commodity to garner profits which is relatively easy. In other words, gold and silver do not correlate as much as some people believe.

5. Forex Chaos: Day traders of USDJPY, NZDUSD, EURUSD and a slew of other major currency pairs were taken on a wild ride last week as USD centric strength surged and fragile conditions in global markets grew. The coming days will remain difficult for FX retail traders as they face a whirlwind of threats. Technical and fundamental traders are being hit by shifting winds generating via a myriad of worries. Speculators without deep pockets are advised to remain cautious in the coming days because trading dynamics are not likely to ease. Yes, there will be price velocity which allows for quick profits, but those who are willing to bet on the prospects of fantastic gains must also accept the dangerous proposition that wildly expensive losses if they are on the wrong side of a trade are equally possible. Brokers will certainly welcome their clients with open arms this coming week because the volatility may entice many with the potential of getting rich. However, brokers will not tell you about the poor house on the other side of the street.

4. Unscripted: There are a little more than four weeks before the 2024 U.S elections on the 5th of November. Trump appears to be gaining momentum in polls, but certainly remains vulnerable per his ability to speak without a script and create verbal firestorms. Kamala Harris ran into problems recently with a suspected malfunctioning teleprompter and her inability to escape repeating the words ’32 days’. While the two candidates battle for voter supremacy, questions persists about the current leadership from the White House and who exactly is running the show.

3. Noisy Data: The Federal Reserve and economic data remain concerns. This Thursday the Consumer Price Index data will be released. If the inflation statistics can come in below expectations this may soothe financial institutions who have leaned into the notion the Fed needs to remain aggressive in November. Another interest rate has been expected, but some are nervous the Fed may not be able to cut as fully as wished. However, day traders need to also understand politics are playing a role in the bombastic soundbites being generated by the media, this as they try to deliver messaging which reflect their viewpoints. If inflation numbers remain under control the mid-term outlook continues to point towards more interest rate cuts. While the U.S jobs numbers on Friday were better than expected it should be noted revisions downward were seen again. There is one more Non-Farm Employment Change report before the election, by then it will probably not have an impact on potential voters, but its affect on the Fed will certainly be felt.

2. End Game: As the Iranian and Israel conflict escalates and threatens to become a dark spiral, some are still hoping for an avenue which will allow normality to return. That appears to be wishful thinking for the moment. Reports, perhaps paranoid, regarding an earthquake in Iran yesterday with a magnitude 4.5 seismic rating which was 48 kilometers from Semnan was noted by the USGS. The reason why it is potentially scary notion is because some are questioning if this was a nuclear test being conducted by Iran.

1. Risk Adverse: A trifecta of nervous behavioral sentiment is shadowing the financial markets via Fed outlook, Middle East tensions, and the approaching U.S election. Unfortunately none of these components are likely to disappear soon and in fact may grow in stature as outlooks potentially create more anxiousness. Safe havens in the USD, gold and U.S Treasuries may find they deliver some calm for those that are nervous. However, it must be noted that U.S equity indices gained nicely late last week after gains on Friday. The Dow 30 and S&P 500 remain near apexes and the Nasdaq Composite is within sight of highs. In other words, for all the talk about dark days, financial markets and investors are still active.

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Mets, New York City, and the Most Astounding Baseball Season

by with No Comment BaseballBooksFeatured Highlights

Mets, New York City, and the Most Astounding Baseball Season

Book corner: They Said it Couldn’t be Done by Wayne Coffey

In 1969, the Apollo 11 moon landing and the 400,000-strong Woodstock concert weren’t the only miracles in the United States. Wayne Coffey’s They Said it Couldn’t be Done focuses on major league baseball, where the New York Mets – a team with a losing record since its founding and who came in ninth place in the National League the year before – won the World Series to become baseball’s champions. Who says that miracles don’t happen?

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Coffey is an experienced sportswriter, having written about hockey (The Boys of Winter: The Untold Story of a Coach, a Dream, and the 1980 U.S. Olympic Hockey Team), plus soccer, football, and basketball. In They Said it Couldn’t be Done, he tells the story of the championship ’69 year.

Coffey describes the history of the team. The Mets grew from the wake that was left in New York baseball when two of its three major league teams – the Brooklyn Dodgers in 1957 and the New York Giants in 1958 – relocated to California (referenced by the line “California baseball” in Billy Joel’s hit We Didn’t Start the Fire), leaving the southern boroughs without a team of their own. Created as one of two National League expansion teams in 1962 (the other being the Houston Colt 45s, later renamed as the Astros), the Mets played in the Giant’s old homestead, the Polo Grounds in upper Manhattan, until moving to Shea Stadium in Flushing, Queens in 1964.

A word about expansion teams. These teams usually comprise older players whose baseball chops have begun to erode, together with lesser-skilled players who – to put it mildly – weren’t the top prospects upon entering the league. The Mets went 40-120 their first year, a losing record for the twentieth century (and so far for the twenty-first). For the boys in Flushing, the early-to-mid-60s were a ballplaying comedy of errors, a farce with endless losing streaks, blowout games, and (as one can guess) a horrendously poor level of play. Fans would turn up to the game and watch dropped balls, outfield collisions, and balls careening off gloves. But the fiercely loyal New York fans stuck with them, taking the team to their hearts. In fact, an endearing and fun aura surrounded the young team, viewed by the fans as goofy but lovable losers.

As Coffey explains, the change began in mid-decade. Older players retired or were traded, and younger and more skilled players joined the team, such as the nimble shortstop Bud Harrelson. In 1967, two pitchers were introduced who would have a major role in the Mets future win, the left-handed Jerry Koosman and the right-handed Tom Seaver. These players – and others – were hungry for winning and were offended by the stigma of mediocrity that surrounded the team. In 1968, former Dodger star Gil Hodges began his tenure as manager, replacing the old-timer Casey Stengal. Coffey describes Hodges’ character and managerial style, and how it affected the team for the better. A decorated US marine in World War 2, and a man of the highest integrity, Hodges was calm, methodical, unflappable, with an uncanny knack for eliciting the maximum performance of his players, who respected him greatly. The ’68 team might not have even reached .500 (meaning the number of wins equals the number of losses), but for those watching closely, there were seeds of future victory being sown, as shown by good performances from catcher Jerry Grote, outfielders Cleon Jones and Ron Swoboda, and others.

Even with all the young and eager talent, the Mets began the ’69 season still outgunned in the National League, posting a losing record for the first month. But in May, they went .500 for the first time since their founding, and at the end of the month lurched ahead after a winning streak. Coffey describes the additional winning streaks in August and September where, trailing the Chicago Cubs for most of the year, the Mets edged out the Windy City boys to win, in champagne-drenched excitement, the National League East division. On this backdrop, the bulk of the book – the ’69 post-season – begins.

Going up against the Atlanta Braves in the National League Championship was frightening. Even though the Mets won more regular season games, the Braves – with powerful hitters such as Orlando Cepeda and top slugger Hank Aaron, and a pitching staff led by the right-handed All-Star Phil Niekro – were still favored to win. But in an unpredicted upset, the Mets swept the Braves, three games to zero, scoring a cumulative 27 runs compared to the Braves’ 15.

Defeating the Braves was one thing. Defeating the American League championship Baltimore Orioles in the World Series was another. With bat-wielding gladiators such as Brooks Robinson, Boog Powell, Paul Blair, and Frank Robinson, the Mets were going up against a baseball-playing war machine with almost no weak spots. Their pitching staff included four starters who won 20 games apiece, such as left-handed Mike Cuellar and Dave McNally, and right-handed Jim Palmer. Palmer, considered today one of the best pitchers ever, was still young when he took the mound against the Mets, turning 24 on the day of Game 4. But he already had five seasons under his belt, and was an experienced postseason warrior, including a World Series pitching duel in 1966 against the mighty Sandy Koufax.

The Mets went on to defeat the Orioles, four games to one, playing like lions in a World Series that has become legendary. Coffey describes these games – as he does with the Braves – in play-by-play detail, but does a good job of leaving out anything of lesser importance while highlighting the important plays, the latter including Ron Swoboda’s gravity-defying catch in Game 4 that saved the game for the Mets. A writer of lesser skill might over-indulge the reader, or conversely, skimp too much on details. Coffey is able to walk that fine line between the two, and the book’s climax bounces along at an exciting pace, with a breezy, page-turning feel. Coffey did his homework well, by conducting scores of interviews with the key players and obviously watching all the championship and World Series games (all are currently available on YouTube, for anyone interested). He includes interesting commentaries at various points, telling us what the players were thinking, analyzing their moves, and putting various key at-bats in context.

Coffey fills up the book with light vignettes of Met fans of the era, such as Howie Rose, the popular Mets sportscaster, and describes the season’s impact on New York society in general. He also delves into the background and personal stories of many players, including the hardships they endured – such as that of veteran third basemen Ed Charles, an African-American who came up from the Jim Crow South – to make it to the major leagues.

The classic baseball expression, “it ain’t over ‘til it’s over”, truly symbolized the ’69 Mets. They Said it Couldn’t be Done is a great read. Baseball fans will love the book but so will fans of any sport.

If you want to read another Book Corner article, please visit this review by Evan Rothfeld: https://www.angrymetatraders.com/post/dangerous-and-unpredictable-duties-during-the-vietnam-war