Sentiment and Outlooks are King in WTI Crude Oil
WTI Crude Oil has seen a solid path lower in the past week of trading. In the wake of the U.S mid-term election results some large players have clearly established a positive outlook regarding their perceived scenarios for the Iranian war and the potential implications for improved secure supply. President Trump has confirmed publicly that he believes Iran and the U.S have had better discussions about a possible resolution to end the conflict.
However, doubters still remain anxious, because as President Trump has clearly demonstrated his viewpoints and stances can change dramatically and without much prior notice, often causing market whiplash for speculators and investors. Energy supply from the Middle East remains a delicate endeavor.
Viridian Commodity Intelligence Momentum – Drivers vs Price Data as of 11th November 2026
Fundamental Price Drivers vs. Human Instinct in WTI Crude Oil
The Viridian Commodity Intelligence momentum driver vs. price graph is showing the potential of upwards moves in WTI Crude Oil as of this writing. Retail traders need to remember sentiment for the moment remains king, and it is a skittish king – one prone to the Middle East saga. The price of WTI Crude Oil did touch a low of nearly $84.400 during yesterday’s price action. The slight move higher can be treated as a normal intraday activity when taking into consideration orders via large players in the marketplace. Trying to get a firm grasp on short-term price action remains difficult at best for retail traders.
There is something to be clearly said for improved outlooks. President Trump might find taking action in the Middle East more difficult within the current political reality of Washington D.C and may want to act sooner rather than later. Because when the Democratic Party led Congress arrives in early January, President Trump will find some of his power eroding and perhaps feel influenced by a desire to create legacy – even among those who dislike him.
Some people (including traders) might be more inclined to be optimistic about their outlooks because of human nature and instincts which often create wishful thinking for hard to predict outcomes, but we should remember the price of WTI Crude Oil remains within the a rather expensive price realm because doubts remain substantial. Thus, producing the higher sticky terrain regarding current price and its speculative playground.
WTI Crude Oil Six Month Chart as of 11th November 2026
Where is WTI Crude Oil Pricing Going?
Supply of WTI via Oklahoma’s production may be large and U.S producers may be drilling with significant success, but caution about the Middle East still lurks. Earlier this week a Houthi missile hit Saudi Arabia’s Aramco building in Riyadh. While it has been treated largely as a ‘nothing to see event’ (swept under the carpet by many media outlets too), the hit on the famed Saudi building highlights the sudden dangers that still exists and threaten to ignite.
Saudi Arabia has done almost everything it can to try and limit an escalation of fighting in Yemen, but nearby – the rhetoric between the U.S and Iran remains saber-rattling terrain. Perhaps this observation should be taken in the light that this is how Middle East negotiations and diplomacy often work. Pointed accusations, passionate speeches are normal – it is true, so it is up to large players involved in the WTI Crude Oil market to decide on their current sentiment which creates fast conditions.
While the price action from the past week has certainly shown a selloff predominate, quick reversals and higher intraday are still a significant threat. However, from a mid-term perspective, looking for price action in WTI Crude Oil to move lower appears to be logical and may produce further bets on lower prices and act as a catalyst for wagering. And no doubt this could be my own biased optimistic rose colored glasses opinion.
Lower Prices in Coffee Arabica and the Influence of Narrative on Sentiment
Coffee Arabica continues to face downwards pressure, the price of the commodity as of this writing is near 266.75. Plenty of explanations can be heard regarding Coffee Arabica’s downturn in recent trading. For instance, the USD/BRL closed at 5.5800 yesterday and continues to traverse high water (simmering coffee) marks in the wake of nervousness created by Brazil’s election results and ramifications for its financial markets, but also as USD centric price action is stubborn.
Before the Brazilian election the USD/BRL was near 5.0500. While plenty of narrative has centered on the potential that a Forex discount has emerged in the Coffee market because of the cheaper Brazilian Real, let’s please remember before the election that supply via solid crops was known to be good in Brazil. Also, it needs to be pointed out that Coffee Arabica was near it current prices (and actually below these depths from late May until the middle of June this year) before fear mongering about a questionable harvest due to strong rains in Brazil emerged during the later days of June – and was eventually proven wrong.
Coffee Arabica One Year Chart as of 11th November 2026
What if the Weather Forecasters are Wrong?
Now there is talk about the potential of El Nino effects on Brazil and the crops to be grown, but for now this remains nervous chatter. Weather forecasts have been known to have proven incorrect before. And please note, there is a lot of supply coming from elsewhere nowadays, including other parts of South America, and some parts of Asia and Africa. We are not about to run out of Coffee folks. Current prices are approaching important support levels, and this is after a year in which Coffee Arabica has been sliding back to a known historical price range, and is still above values seen before the bull market hit the commodity from October 2023 until October 2025. Apex prices were challenging the $425.00 ratio in September and October of 2025.
Coffee Arabica is a fast and often supercharged commodity that some retail traders like to wager on as they try to ride the momentum created by big players. Tactical use of ordering is needed, also accompanied by a solid amount of cash in a trading account in order to safely navigate intraday violence which often is demonstrated. If Coffee Arabica continues to sustain prices below $270.00 near-term, June’s early lows that saw the $250.00 ratio challenged would not be surprising to see emerge again. Risk management is needed by retail traders however, this as they attempt to swim with the large predatory players in the marketplace.
