postN68

Mets, New York City, and the Most Astounding Baseball Season

Mets, New York City, and the Most Astounding Baseball Season

Book corner: They Said it Couldn’t be Done by Wayne Coffey

In 1969, the Apollo 11 moon landing and the 400,000-strong Woodstock concert weren’t the only miracles in the United States. Wayne Coffey’s They Said it Couldn’t be Done focuses on major league baseball, where the New York Mets – a team with a losing record since its founding and who came in ninth place in the National League the year before – won the World Series to become baseball’s champions. Who says that miracles don’t happen?

Coffey is an experienced sportswriter, having written about hockey (The Boys of Winter: The Untold Story of a Coach, a Dream, and the 1980 U.S. Olympic Hockey Team), plus soccer, football, and basketball. In They Said it Couldn’t be Done, he tells the story of the championship ’69 year.

Coffey describes the history of the team. The Mets grew from the wake that was left in New York baseball when two of its three major league teams – the Brooklyn Dodgers in 1957 and the New York Giants in 1958 – relocated to California (referenced by the line “California baseball” in Billy Joel’s hit We Didn’t Start the Fire), leaving the southern boroughs without a team of their own. Created as one of two National League expansion teams in 1962 (the other being the Houston Colt 45s, later renamed as the Astros), the Mets played in the Giant’s old homestead, the Polo Grounds in upper Manhattan, until moving to Shea Stadium in Flushing, Queens in 1964.

A word about expansion teams. These teams usually comprise older players whose baseball chops have begun to erode, together with lesser-skilled players who – to put it mildly – weren’t the top prospects upon entering the league. The Mets went 40-120 their first year, a losing record for the twentieth century (and so far for the twenty-first). For the boys in Flushing, the early-to-mid-60s were a ballplaying comedy of errors, a farce with endless losing streaks, blowout games, and (as one can guess) a horrendously poor level of play. Fans would turn up to the game and watch dropped balls, outfield collisions, and balls careening off gloves. But the fiercely loyal New York fans stuck with them, taking the team to their hearts. In fact, an endearing and fun aura surrounded the young team, viewed by the fans as goofy but lovable losers.

As Coffey explains, the change began in mid-decade. Older players retired or were traded, and younger and more skilled players joined the team, such as the nimble shortstop Bud Harrelson. In 1967, two pitchers were introduced who would have a major role in the Mets future win, the left-handed Jerry Koosman and the right-handed Tom Seaver. These players – and others – were hungry for winning and were offended by the stigma of mediocrity that surrounded the team. In 1968, former Dodger star Gil Hodges began his tenure as manager, replacing the old-timer Casey Stengal. Coffey describes Hodges’ character and managerial style, and how it affected the team for the better. A decorated US marine in World War 2, and a man of the highest integrity, Hodges was calm, methodical, unflappable, with an uncanny knack for eliciting the maximum performance of his players, who respected him greatly. The ’68 team might not have even reached .500 (meaning the number of wins equals the number of losses), but for those watching closely, there were seeds of future victory being sown, as shown by good performances from catcher Jerry Grote, outfielders Cleon Jones and Ron Swoboda, and others.

Even with all the young and eager talent, the Mets began the ’69 season still outgunned in the National League, posting a losing record for the first month. But in May, they went .500 for the first time since their founding, and at the end of the month lurched ahead after a winning streak. Coffey describes the additional winning streaks in August and September where, trailing the Chicago Cubs for most of the year, the Mets edged out the Windy City boys to win, in champagne-drenched excitement, the National League East division. On this backdrop, the bulk of the book – the ’69 post-season – begins.

Going up against the Atlanta Braves in the National League Championship was frightening. Even though the Mets won more regular season games, the Braves – with powerful hitters such as Orlando Cepeda and top slugger Hank Aaron, and a pitching staff led by the right-handed All-Star Phil Niekro – were still favored to win. But in an unpredicted upset, the Mets swept the Braves, three games to zero, scoring a cumulative 27 runs compared to the Braves’ 15.

Defeating the Braves was one thing. Defeating the American League championship Baltimore Orioles in the World Series was another. With bat-wielding gladiators such as Brooks Robinson, Boog Powell, Paul Blair, and Frank Robinson, the Mets were going up against a baseball-playing war machine with almost no weak spots. Their pitching staff included four starters who won 20 games apiece, such as left-handed Mike Cuellar and Dave McNally, and right-handed Jim Palmer. Palmer, considered today one of the best pitchers ever, was still young when he took the mound against the Mets, turning 24 on the day of Game 4. But he already had five seasons under his belt, and was an experienced postseason warrior, including a World Series pitching duel in 1966 against the mighty Sandy Koufax.

The Mets went on to defeat the Orioles, four games to one, playing like lions in a World Series that has become legendary. Coffey describes these games – as he does with the Braves – in play-by-play detail, but does a good job of leaving out anything of lesser importance while highlighting the important plays, the latter including Ron Swoboda’s gravity-defying catch in Game 4 that saved the game for the Mets. A writer of lesser skill might over-indulge the reader, or conversely, skimp too much on details. Coffey is able to walk that fine line between the two, and the book’s climax bounces along at an exciting pace, with a breezy, page-turning feel. Coffey did his homework well, by conducting scores of interviews with the key players and obviously watching all the championship and World Series games (all are currently available on YouTube, for anyone interested). He includes interesting commentaries at various points, telling us what the players were thinking, analyzing their moves, and putting various key at-bats in context.

Coffey fills up the book with light vignettes of Met fans of the era, such as Howie Rose, the popular Mets sportscaster, and describes the season’s impact on New York society in general. He also delves into the background and personal stories of many players, including the hardships they endured – such as that of veteran third basemen Ed Charles, an African-American who came up from the Jim Crow South – to make it to the major leagues.

The classic baseball expression, “it ain’t over ‘til it’s over”, truly symbolized the ’69 Mets. They Said it Couldn’t be Done is a great read. Baseball fans will love the book but so will fans of any sport.

If you want to read another Book Corner article, please visit this review by Evan Rothfeld: https://www.angrymetatraders.com/post/dangerous-and-unpredictable-duties-during-the-vietnam-war

postN67.1

To Risk or Not to Risk that is the Speculative Question

To Risk or Not to Risk that is the Speculative Question

Last week U.S equity indices demonstrated a rise in value. The highs achieved in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the NASDAQ Composite and the S&P 500 by the end of last week only touched values seen in the middle of October. And while their ratios remain below the highs of early August and falling values seen in September, the move upwards was certainly welcome by financial institutions and day traders who hold optimistic viewpoints.

U.S Treasury yields declined last week. While incremental decreases were made through Thursday, the U.S Non-Farm Employment Change and Average Hourly Earnings reports both coming in below expectations on Friday, created a stronger dose of lower yields. The 5, 7, 10 and 30 year U.S Treasuries are now trading near mid-September values. The 2 and 3 year notes are moving around early September numbers.

Gold One Year Chart as of the 5th November 2023

The USD grew weaker in slight movements against many major currencies last week, but upon the weaker jobs numbers found increased selling price velocity. Gold however remains suspiciously strong, which brings up the notion that risk adverse ‘insurance’ is still being held closely by investors who remain nervous.

The Middle East crisis is ongoing in Israel against Hamas and to a limited extent Hezbullah, but financial institutions have seemingly been able to digest the news and remain tranquil and vigilant. Another sign of calm coming into the global financial markets is the price of WTI Crude Oil which finished the week under 81.00 USD per barrel.

Economic data will be relatively light this coming week, and behavioral sentiment appears to be the potential larger factor until Friday regarding impetus for day traders and financial houses. Certainly loud global developing news could suddenly erupt and cause nervous investors to falter, but last week’s trading results showed signs of improving risk appetite.

The U.S Federal Reserve met expectations last Wednesday and didn’t raise the cost of borrowing. The mid-term seems to indicate interest rates will remain high, but that the U.S central bank will not raise the Federal Funds Rate anytime soon. The lower than expected inflation report via the Average Hourly Earnings before going into the weekend helped highlight this thinking, although it remains a consideration that is still speculative.

Officials from the major central banks including the BoJ, BoE and Fed will be speaking this week and could cause turbulence with their rhetoric. However, no major surprises will likely come from their mouths. Although the Bank of Japan may rattle the prospects of intervention to keep USD/JPY traders on their toes.

Monday, the 6th of November, Germany Factory Orders – the result is expected to be negative and highlight the nation remains within recessionary conditions. The Sentix Investor Confidence reading will also be released slightly afterwards for the European Union and a worse number than last month’s outcome is anticipated. But the EUR/USD is likely to remain mostly USD centric, even though these reports could cause momentary fluctuations.

AUD/USD Six Month Chart as of the 5th November 2023

Tuesday, the 7th of November, Australia Cash Rate – the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to raise its interest rate by 0.25% to 4.35%. Will the RBA take a gamble and not raise the interest rate due to other major central banks holding their rates in place, or will the increase go ahead to fight stubborn inflation while trying inspire some confidence in the AUD? A hike seems to be the direction the RBA will decide upon, having said that, the Australian central bank have surprised financial institutions before.

Wednesday, the 8th of November, U.S 10-year Bond Auction – the results from this sale and the yields that develop within U.S Treasuries will have an affect on Forex. Lower yields than anticipated could signal a weaker USD. However, risk adverse elements will need to be calm for the bond auction to produce tranquil results.

Thursday, the 9th of November, China CPI and PPI – the data from these inflation reports will be watched closely. Chinese economic numbers has shown some signs of stabilization the past few weeks, both of these publications are expected to have negative outcomes. Concerns about the financial pressures domestic consumers are facing regarding housing market values in China and the way in which they spend due to lackluster prospects are concerning. The USD/CNY will be affected in the wake of these statistics, and the USD/SGD could see momentary volatility too if the results prove to be a surprise.

GBP/USD One Month Chart as of the 5th of November 2023

Friday, the 10th of November, U.K Gross Domestic Product – last month’s number came in with an unexpected positive gain of 0.2%, this GDP report is anticipated to show no change. The GBP/USD jumped in value on Friday and financial institutions will be geared towards behavioral sentiment most of this week, but the British GDP data could cause a reaction before going into the weekend.

Friday, the 10th of November, U.S Preliminary Consumer Sentiment via the University of Michigan – the reading is expected to be slightly below last month’s outcome. U.S consumers remain a strong point of light for the U.S Federal Reserve. American consumers have remained spenders, although they have seemingly curtailed purchases of large ticket items such as cars and big appliances. If this data comes in weaker than expected it could propel more selling of the USD. A stronger number than anticipated could spook financial institutions and cause a slight surge in buying of the USD.

postN51

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Shots for Friday the 3rd of Nov.

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Shots for Friday the 3rd of Nov.

10. NBA: Welcome to Victor Wembanyama’s world. VW’s 5th game as a Spur was historic last night.

9. South Africa: The Springboks Rugby World Cup victory is helping unifying the nation and giving all its citizens a hope for better days.

8. Book: The Gulag Archipelago by Aleksandr I. Solzhenitsyn.

7. Crypto: Sam Bankman-Fried found guilty on all counts. Yet, Bitcoin is near 34,600.00 USD per coin.

6. Risks: Signs of appetite as U.S equity indices have moved higher, and U.S Treasury yields have declined.

5. Gold: The precious metal still lingering near 2000.00 USD and may attract bearish speculative positions.

4. Middle East: Global financial institutions appear to have dealt with the noise.

3. U.S Jobs Reports: Non-Farm Employment Change numbers and Average Hourly Earnings inflation data will be published today and shake markets.

2. Federal Reserve: The U.S central bank may have reached the end of it interest rates hikes cycle.

1. USD: The world’s reserve currency remains suspiciously strong and if it is a relatively calm today and this weekend, day traders may begin to embrace selling wagers.

postN66.1

Ready for Risks as Nervous Markets Await Plenty of Outcomes

Ready for Risks as Nervous Markets Await Plenty of Outcomes

So you want to be a trader. You imagine that it will be fun and possibly easy to make money from the comfort of a cafe, office, maybe a bus or subway train with a simple touch to an app on your phone that allows seamless possibilities to take advantage of trends that are easy to spot. Yet, this may not be the week to decide on beginning your endeavor, perhaps you will want to watch the global markets and learn from the possible mistakes of others in the coming days.

Simple trends for the moment have largely disappeared and financial markets face a rather important week of data and global risk events that not even the most experienced trader can comfortably embrace. Risk events will shadow this week of trading. There will be a lot of drums beating and earplugs are recommended for speculators.

To get started the war in the Middle East, actually the war between Israel and Hamas is ongoing and it will not end soon. Israel doesn’t want U.S ground troops and while some media sources may make these claims, it is extremely unlikely to happen. Yes, the U.S has sent war ships to the Mediterranean, but this is largely to suggest to Iran that the nation not become overtly active in the conflict.

Global investors who have been around the block and have traded when other conflicts have escalated – Ukraine, Iraq, Afghanistan, African wars, and simmering feuds between China and India are somewhat used to these news flows and developing crisis forays. It does not make things easier, but at the same time being able to separate the noise from the actual reality of these events is essential. Learning to be mindful of the media and its frequent empty hyperbole regarding what could happen next is vital. Traders need to be critical thinkers.

If a day trader can step away from concerns regarding conflicts and focus on how behavioral sentiment is going to develop via the gyrations of financial institutions and larger investors, they will go a long way in starting to pursue a more tranquil path and find the ability to organize their thoughts quietly.

Gold is flirting with the 2000.00 USD mark per ounce. U.S indices continue to trade near lows and risk adverse tendencies will likely continue to flourish in the near term. There is a parade of important data releases and rhetoric that will come this week. Traders who are technically driven should consider paying attention to the economic reports and pronouncements that will come as they mix with business outlooks and varying time frames that must be considered when making bets on the financial markets.

Most of Monday’s economic reports are in already. Australia posted better than expected Retail Sales. German Preliminary Gross Domestic Product statistics came in with a slightly better than anticipated number, although growth is still negative.

Tuesday, 31st of October, China Manufacturing PMI – economic data from China came in slightly better than expected the past week, but shadows lurk and the manufacturing numbers will help provide insights regarding headwinds the nation is facing. The USD/CNY remains at elevated levels. Transparency remains a desire for international investors who want to participate in China.

USD/JPY Six Month Chart as of 30th October 2023

Tuesday, 31st of October, Bank of Japan – the BoJ is expected to make no changes to interest rate policy (you have heard this song before), but the USD/JPY remains near the 150.000 level and the Bank of Japan is not comfortable with this higher ratio. The question remains how they can combat this value properly. By suggesting the notion the BoJ can intervene when they want to, can keep financial institutions from over aggressively buying the USD/JPY. Expect to hear some of these intervention warnings again tomorrow.

Wednesday, 1st of November, U.S Federal Reserve Funds Rate and FOMC Statement – Jerome Powell made it pretty clear in mid-October the U.S Fed will likely not raise its interest rate at this meeting. However, he warned the potential exist to raise rates down the road if inflation shows unwanted sparks. American consumers are a reason for concern too, although the Fed will not admit this – the U.S Fed would like to see less consumer demand which they believe would help decrease inflation. Problematically, U.S Treasuries are not only sticking near higher yields because of the potential of higher interest rates, but they are also being bought as a safe haven because of Middle East worries. This will continue to put pressure on the U.S government because paying off bonds with higher yielding rates of returns to investors can become increasingly difficult, particularly when U.S government spending appears to be nearly out of control.

GBP/USD Six Month Chart as of 30th October 2023

Thursday, 2nd of November, U.K BoE Official Bank Rate and Monetary Policy Summary – no changes are expected by the Bank of England. Perhaps like the ECB last week the Bank of England will try to ‘sound’ a sedate level of rhetoric and say they are monitoring economic conditions which remain rather lackluster, but are showing slight signs of improvement via inflation and potential growth. The GBP/USD continues to fight near lows and the 1.20000 level is likely an important juncture.

Friday, 3rd of November, U.S Non-Farm Employment Change and Average Hourly Earnings – the jobs numbers are expected to come in less than the previous month’s results. The wages report could be important if there is a significant change not corresponding with the estimate. Inflation needs to show signs of decreasing before the U.S Fed backs down from its aggressive interest rate stance, if the Average Hourly Earnings number remains stubborn, so will the U.S Fed.

postN51

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Points for Friday the 27th of Oct.

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Points for Friday the 27th of Oct.

10. Rugby World Cup: South Africa Springboks versus New Zealand All Blacks in a titan championship tomorrow.

9. Word of the Day: ‘Resilience’ as Israel’s business and start-up sectors remain focused and strong.

8. El Nino: Change to ocean currents still problematic, Acapulco hit by significant damage via Hurricane Otis.

7. Data: U.S Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index could cause a reaction if the inflation numbers are higher than anticipated.

6. ECB: Pronouncements were consistent yesterday as Europe battles lackluster economy and elevated consumer costs.

5. U.S: Advance GDP results yesterday stronger than estimated, American consumers remain buyers.

4. Electric Vehicles: EV market showing fatigue as poor earnings from Tesla and other manufacturers confront investors due to ‘resource’ hurdles and as legitimacy of mass adaption is questioned.

3. USD: Trend and resistance levels under scrutiny from day traders and financial institutions as potential reversals are contemplated.

2. U.S Equity Indices: Dow Industrials, NASDAQ and S&P 500 now facing critical tests of late May 2023 support levels after yesterday’s selloff.

1. Behavioral Sentiment: Razor’s edge conditions in many assets are dangerous. Risk adverse elements are strong, timing a sustained shift of momentum is speculative.

postN64

Optimism in Challenging Conditions and Time Considerations

Optimism in Challenging Conditions and Time Considerations

Traders by nature are optimists, after all they are wagering on outcomes they believe are valid with targets regarding future results. Global market conditions for the moment have created expensive price action unfortunately, this as plenty of day traders wagering on their perceptions have found out while whipsaw movements and fast velocity have taken place and caused losses.

The USD continues to create turbulent higher values among many major currencies it is teamed against as financial institutions exhibit risk adverse tendencies. U.S Treasury yields may be going up because the U.S Federal Reserve continues to sound alarms regarding inflation, but the last two weeks of trading globally have seen an influx into U.S Treasuries as a safe haven move. Another signal that risk appetite is poor among global investors is because while the USD has gotten stronger, gold has also risen in value.

Gold Five Year Chart as of 26th Oct. 2023

And importantly, global markets are trading in conditions which are not considered normal. Many inexperienced people within financial institutions have not dealt with markets like the ones being battled now. High interest rates combined with risk adverse conditions because of concerns regarding an escalation of war conditions in the Middle-East are causing a storm of volatility. U.S stock indices are trading at mid-term lows, and this may continue to be a theme over the next few weeks and beyond, but certainly there are those among us who look towards sunnier days.

So what does an optimist do if they are a day-trader? Perspective needs to be questioned at all times by speculators, and bias regarding all insights by individuals need to be given consideration. A trader must make sure they are not trading based on noise which is coming from the media and tainted with hyperbole. A trader must also question their personal instincts making sure they are free of preconceived notions. Behavioral sentiment gets affected from many angles when market noise becomes loud. Looking for a quiet place to think about market direction is vital for everyone.

Speculators need to remain calm and stick to risk management tactics that prove effective even during chaotic trading conditions. A variety of ways to be involved with the markets directly exists for all, Forex, equities and indices, commodities, bonds are only some of the avenues. Traders can go long or short on their chosen positions, they can participate in the ‘cash’ markets, but can also participate in futures and options trading via time related duration.

Famous investors are known for taking advantage of lower values when fear is high. They look for value via fundamentals within assets with long-term track records. It is not an accident the USD is strong, U.S Treasuries are being sought, gold is being bought currently.

Trends are there to be found and can be taken advantage of by day traders who are looking for quick hitting outcomes, but they must proceed carefully. Because it is also important to acknowledge that no matter how bad circumstances sometimes look in the short-term, that a positive quality among we as humans is to seek optimism. There are reasons to participate in trades with a perspective knowing more tranquil days will come and the markets will grow calm again, markets can reverse and suddenly display risk appetite.

postN63.1

Fed Rhetoric, U.S Consumers, and Fresh Concerns about China

Fed Rhetoric, U.S Consumers, and Fresh Concerns about China

U.S inflation data via the Consumer Price Index last Thursday met the anticipated result regarding the core number, and the broad statistics were only fractionally larger than expected. U.S Treasuries yields however jumped via quick reactions about stubborn inflation, then settled down. Equities via the major indices continue to show nervousness.

Day traders continue to get hit by choppiness, which means if they are not on the correct side of a trade initially, they can get knocked out of their positions quickly due to the use of too much leverage.

China produced another round of troublesome Consumer Price Index Producer Price Index reports last Friday, once again highlighting deflation is a legitimate concern for the nation.

The USD began to weaken within many major currency pairs on late Tuesday and early Wednesday, and then began to prove difficult with sideways price action. However, many currencies held onto their slight gains against the USD going into the weekend. But before a massive bearish trend against the USD actually can be sustained, perceptions about the U.S Federal Reserve stands clearly in the way regarding behavioral sentiment.

Inflation numbers last week remained strong enough to suspect the Fed will raise interest rates again on the 1st of November. As a way to keep traders on their toes, U.S Federal Reserve officials will be speaking at many functions over the entirety of this week, offering crumbles of evidence for their less than spectacular rhetoric on the global economy no doubt.

Gold has produced a rather startling climb in the past ten days and its one month charts resemble a rather turbulent roller coaster. Traders who have been pursuing the precious metal during its strong reversals the past handful of weeks have hopefully been using solid risk management while taking a speculative ride.

Gold One Month Chart as of 16th of October

Monday, the 16th of October, U.S Empire State Manufacturing Index – the number has come in slightly better than expected, but has still produced a negative reading of minus -4.6. While many U.S officials will not state it publicly, a decline in the manufacturing index may pave the way towards a more tranquil Federal Reserve. But this may be wishful thinking too, particularly if inflation remains elevated.

Tuesday, the 17th of October, U.S Retail Sales – the data about consumer spending will affect Forex if there are surprises. Both the core and broad reports are anticipated to be weaker than last month’s numbers. Weaker results could create some USD weakness.

Wednesday, the 18th of October, China Industrial Production, Gross Domestic Product and Retail Sales – the Industrial Production results are expected to be slightly weaker than last months, while the GDP outcome is being estimated to show a significant drop. If the growth number comes in at the anticipated 4.5% mark it would be another signal that China is struggling while trying to jump start the economy. USD/CNY traders should be careful around these reports.

GBP/USD Six Month Chart as of 16th October

Wednesday, the 18th of October, U.K Consumer Price Index – the CPI data from Great Britain is expected to show a slight decline from the previous month. While last week’s GDP numbers met their rather lackluster expectations; Construction, Manufacturing, Trade Balance data came in much worse than anticipated. While no one from the U.K government is going to cheer on the bad economic numbers from last week, these figures will make these CPI inflation results important to monitor. Will the U.K inflation numbers remain stubborn like the U.S? The GBP/USD certainly needs to be watched in the aftermath of this CPI report.

Thursday, the 19th of October, China New Home Prices – the housing bubble within China is a thing of the past. Last month’s outcome produced another negative number and a poor report would not be a surprise this week. Negative housing values hurt the Chinese public which have largely quantified their personal savings via their real estate holdings.

Thursday, the 19th of October, U.S Unemployment Claims – the weekly report will give another small dose of evidence regarding the strength of the U.S economy for financial institutions to consider.

Friday, the 20th of October, U.K Retail Sales – the consumer spending report is expected to produce a decline of minus -0.3%. GBP/USD traders may use this report as another sphere of influence.

postN51

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Shivers for Friday the 13th of Oct

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Shivers for Friday the 13th of Oct

10. Roseanne Roseannadanna: It just goes to show ya. It’s always something. If it’s not one thing, it’s another.

9: Book: Longitude: The True Story of a Lone Genius Who Solved the Greatest Scientific Problem of His Time by Dava Sobel.

8. World Cup Rugby: Ireland vs. New Zealand in a quarterfinal match on Saturday.

7. Crypto: Binance Coin slump continues as it edges towards 200.00 USD value.

6. Crude Oil: Price near 84.00 USD per barrel in a mixed week of trading.

5. Gold: Will stable price hold after increase via inflation data and stronger USD?

4. Indices: U.S stock markets declined yesterday, but not significantly in wake of inflation news.

3. USD: Burst of buying for USD took GBP, EUR and JPY and others back to lows.

2. CPI: Consumer Price Index rise yesterday was slight, but reinforced Fed policy.

1. U.S Treasuries: Bond yields a key barometer today and will affect broad markets.

postN62.1

Inflation Data and Fed’s FOMC Meeting Minutes This Week

Inflation Data and Fed's FOMC Meeting Minutes This Week

Last week’s economic data ended with rather tantalizing headline jobs numbers as the U.S showed more hiring than expected, but while this grabbed media soundbites in many circles – the Average Hourly Earnings numbers came in below expectations. The broad Forex market proved dynamic with a stronger USD in many cases, but intriguingly equity markets in the States generated upwards momentum on Friday too. U.S Treasuries were mixed regarding their yields, and the 10-year bond while finishing up for the week was below its highs.

WTI Crude Oil One Month Chart as of 9th of Oct. 2023

The coming week will likely continue to produce nervousness, but outlook will be helped via a couple of U.S inflation reports and the FOMC Meeting Minutes report. Crude Oil prices should be watched as news from the Middle East unfolds. Gold remains under pressure.

Cryptocurrency speculators should keep their eyes on Binance Coin as it battles important lows. Bitcoin has remained relatively stable, but BNB/USD is near crucial support that could signal another wave of pressure is developing within the Binance exchange.

Monday, the 9th of October, International Monetary Fund – week-long meetings get underway and investors who participate in global stock markets and bonds should pay attention to the chatter.

Tuesday, the 10th of October, Central Bank Officials speaking – ECB President Lagarde will be speaking at the IMF conference. Federal Reserve officials will be speaking at meetings in the U.S. While the chatter may cause some nervous reactions briefly in financial institutions, it is unlikely the central bankers will say anything that is surprising.

Wednesday, the 11th of October, U.S Producer Price Index – the broad and core reports should be watched. Last week’s lower Average Hourly Earnings numbers were slightly surprising, but the recent higher energy costs could factor into the PPI results. The broad report is anticipated to show a decline. If the Producer Price Index statistics come in weaker than expected this could help the USD lose some strength.

Wednesday, the 11th of October, U.S FOMC Meeting Minutes – the publication is expected to follow the rhetoric already voiced by the Fed at their last press conference. However, insights regarding dialogue could move the needle in Forex. The U.S central bank is widely expected to raise the Federal Funds Rate in November, but what comes beyond this anticipated move is still in question. Expect the key word in the FOMC report to be ‘inflation’.

Thursday, the 12th of October, U.K Gross Domestic Product – the growth numbers from Great Britain are expected to show a slight rise in GDP. If the gains match expectations or come in better it could help bolster the GBP/USD which has been struggling against the USD for the past three months.

Thursday, the 12th of October, U.S Consumer Price Index – these reports will be crucial and will impact Forex and equities immediately after their release. While the Core CPI number is expected to match last month’s outcome, the broad reports are anticipated to be weaker. If the inflation numbers are stronger than expected the USD could gain strength, if the results are weaker it could help build selling momentum in the USD.

USD/CNY Six Month Chart as of 9th Oct. 2023

Friday, the 13th of October, China Consumer and Producer Price Index – the two releases will be watched carefully by investors. China’s economic data has been weak and financial institutions have become concerned by deflation. The USD/CNY may be impacted upon the publication of the reports.

Friday, the 13th of October, U.S Consumer Sentiment via the University of Michigan – following the CPI numbers from the U.S on Thursday, these numbers will show the attitude of U.S consumers and their spending habits. Financial institutions will monitor these numbers and correlate them to the U.S inflation reports seen earlier.

postN51

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Niblets for Friday 6th of October

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Niblets for Friday 6th of October

10. World Cups: Big weekend ahead in Rugby and Cricket international competitions.

9. Book: Darkness at Noon by Arthur Koestler.

8. Travel Tip: The Western Cape of South Africa.

7. Inflation: Dramatic increases in costs of food globally causing nutrition concerns.

6. Jobs: U.S Non-Farm Employment Change data on the calendar.

5. Music: “In a Sentimental Mood” by Duke Ellington and John Coltrane.

4. Gold: Precious metal still languishing as USD remains strong amidst nervousness.

3. Salaries: U.S Average Hourly Earnings statistics results today will be a catalyst.

2. USD: Major currencies still weak as strength of USD causes duress.

1. U.S Indices: Equities behavioral sentiment appears fragile in stock markets.

postN61.1

Nervous Results Next: Forex and Equities Wait for Jobs Data

Nervous Results Next: Forex and Equities Wait for Jobs Data

Tomorrow’s jobs numbers from the U.S will get plenty of media coverage. Typically the Non-Farm Employment Change data is used as a selling tool by brokers to get their traders motivated and speculating on Forex and stocks via CFDs with the promise of swift price action. Many times the jobs numbers prove to have limited value, serving mostly as entertainment for back office risk managers at Forex houses as the whipsaw value changes wipe out speculators across the board. However, tomorrow may prove different.

Friday’s Non-Farm Employment Change and the Average Hourly Earnings statistics may produce dynamics worthy of their news coverage. Financial institutions are actually quite interested in tomorrow’s coming reports as the U.S Federal Reserve lingers in the shadows having spoken boldly about raising the Federal Funds Rate in November. It would take a weaker hiring result from the Non-Farm Employment Change data, and lower inflation numbers from the Average Hourly Earnings outcome to change financial institution outlooks regarding the U.S central bank.

EUR/USD One Month Chart as of 5th Oct. 2023

The trend of the EUR, GBP and JPY clearly demonstrate the value that has been lost against the USD over the past three months. While many financial institutions and speculators believe the USD will begin to lose strength eventually, timing the moment this is going to start happening in earnest is difficult. U.S Treasuries have come off of highs in recent trading, but nervousness remains abundant and recent heights remain in sight. Tomorrow’s U.S jobs number could reignite fear and spark behavioral sentiment which is reactionary.

As a side note, while U.S indices turned in some gains on Wednesday, the moves higher were not exactly momentous which sets up the U.S stock markets to produce a sudden reversal lower if widespread nervousness is produced today and tomorrow.

Importantly, hiring is believed to be weakening in the U.S by some analysts, but there is plenty of talk about a lack of qualified workers to fill important jobs still. So while the Non-Farm Employment Change number may come in below estimates and could spark hope among financial institutions the U.S Fed will be given a reason to sit on their hands, it is the Average Hourly Earnings inflation numbers which should be watched even more closely. If the costs of paying wages is more expensive than the previous month, this would spark concerns about price pressures remaining problematic.

Analysts have also continued to speak about concerns regarding revisions being made by the U.S government to past jobs reports, which means financial institutions are wary of positioning themselves fully based on the current month’s reporting. Accurate reporting from the U.S government has become problematic, and is causing nervous and conspiracy minded chatter in some trading corners.

WTI Crude Oil One Month Chart as of 5th Oct. 2023

Another factor which day traders may want to consider is the price of Crude Oil which has sunk below 84.00 USD per barrel in the footsteps of a one week decline. If the price of the commodity can remain muted and show a solid trend downwards this would help reduce hawkish rhetoric from the Federal Reserve.

As we go into tomorrow’s jobs numbers from the U.S, the broad markets do continue to exhibit nervousness which appears justified. The results of the Non-Farm Employment Change and Average Hourly Earnings may produce results which cause a reaction which shakes the outlooks of financial institutions and carries strong implications for day traders that matter.

postN59

Elvis has Left the Building, but his Legend Lives On

Elvis has Left the Building, but his Legend Lives On

Book corner: Elvis: Destined to Die Young by Sally A. Hoedel.

Singer and icon Elvis Presley passed away forty-six years ago at the relatively young age of forty-two. Presley wasn’t the first singer – or celebrity, for that matter – to pass before his time. But the circumstances surrounding his death have garnered as much press as the man himself did for his fame and music during his short life: on August 16, 1977, following several years of increasingly serious health issues, Presley was found dead on his bathroom floor, bloated and in poor health, with staggering levels of drugs in his body.

What exactly happened, how it happened, plus why it happened – all have been the subject of a media feeding frenzy that put his personal physician, Dr. George Nikolopoulos (AKA “Dr. Nick”) on trial and had him stripped of his medical license in the state of Tennessee. Later, a series of biographies were written, none too complimentary, that attempted to put the pieces of the puzzle together.

Journalist Sally A. Hoedel, in her book Elvis: Destined to Die Young, attempts to do just that. The book is an odd spin on the standard rock star bios, which usually dwell on cultural impact and creativity. Hoedel, in a meticulously researched book, focuses on Elvis’ health and makes a bold but credible assertion: the prescription drugs, to which he was addicted in his later years, were not what killed him. He suffered from diseases in nine of eleven bodily systems, five of which were present from birth and as a result, was never going to live a long life.

Hoedel begins with Elvis’ family history and takes the reader back to early twentieth-century backwoods Mississippi, at the time one of the poorest regions in America. She explains that his maternal grandparents were first cousins, something that happened with alarming frequency in that era of the American South before modern medical practices and society’s taboos put a stop to it. Elvis’ maternal grandmother, Doll, suffered from Alpha-1 antitrypsin deficiency (misdiagnosed as tuberculosis), a genetic disorder causing liver and lung issues. The resulting union, she explains, caused medical issues for their progeny. Elvis’ mother, Gladys, died at the age of 46 following liver problems, which Hoedel explains was widespread in her family tree and passed on to Elvis (his autopsy confirmed that he was a carrier). According to Hoedel’s book, it is not a coincidence that the mother and son died at around the same age.

Elvis also suffered asthma as a child, also a possible result of Alpha-1, and frequent bouts of tonsilitis, the latter well until his adult years and way past the age at which this sickness is common. But two ailments appeared in his early years that would plague him his entire life with catastrophic ramifications. He suffered horrible constipation problems, putting him in constant pain and creating additional colon issues, and he was a lifelong insomniac. Regarding the latter, Hoedel explains that in his 1970s performing years, he was unable to sufficiently rest enough between performances and suffered exhaustion, sometimes ending up in the hospital. In fact, the list of hospitalizations is staggering and is by far longer than that of any performer active today.

The second half of the book focuses on Elvis’ final touring years and the prescription drugs on which Elvis would create a dependency in his later years. Hoedel asserts that Elvis did not use drugs for recreational purposes, to escape from reality, or as a means to enhance his creativity, as was (and arguably still is) common to rock stars. As a patriot and religious Christian, he was staunchly against drug and alcohol abuse. Instead, he needed the drugs to manage his health. Hoedel describes in length the eleven bodily systems and the nine that were failing him, and why. A partial glimpse of those health issues includes arthritis, glaucoma (hence those giant-framed sunglasses he wore in the 70s), anemia, hypertension, diabetes, and an enlarged colon and spleen.

One wonders how he even got on stage to perform in that condition. The book deals at length with the grueling performance circuit he endured following his 1968 comeback, due to the Colonel. For example, Elvis would routinely play Las Vegas for weeks at a time, with two shows a night, giving a high-energy performance where he would lose several pounds of sweat per show. Hoedel describes shows in the 70s where he fell down on stage and others in which he had to sit down to catch his breath and rest, asking his backup singers to take over.

The books deals with the question, why? For example, why didn’t he take time off from performing to rest and to undergo proper medical examinations? In the chapters on Elvis’ early life, Hoedel describes the gut-wrenching poverty that Elvis endured as a child, where his parents struggled to provide for him. At one point, for example, his family lived in a shack in an alley. Hoedel explains that Elvis was determined to be a provider for himself and for his family. As the years went on, he added more and more friends and family to his payroll, such as his cousins and stepbrothers, etc., for altruistic purposes. He repeatedly said he was unable to take a break from performing since people were counting on him. This feeling of obligation was also in regards to his fans, too, as he avoided doing anything that would let them down. His need to perform was made worse by irresponsible and impulsive spending habits, creating a severe cash flow problem that routinely forced him to go back on the road.

The book also exonerates Dr. Nikolopoulos, who was skewered in the national press after Elvis’ death for having no regard for Elvis’ health and for being the provider that killed Elvis with an endless supply of drugs. Hoedel provides evidence to the contrary and gives him a fair say. She explains that Elvis would often go behind his back and seek prescriptions from other physicians.

Hoedel is an admitted fan and deals with Elvis with respect, painting him as a decent, though flawed, human being. Some of the stories present him as a sad character, a shock considering he was a man who looked for much of his life vibrant, healthy and handsome and who was worshipped by many as a god. She consulted with scores of experts for medical explanations and tries her best to present them in the book with stripped-down and clarifying terminology.

Elvis may have left the building, but his story lives on. This book proves it.

Purchase here: https://amzn.to/3LN4pEd