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Optimism in Challenging Conditions and Time Considerations

Optimism in Challenging Conditions and Time Considerations

Traders by nature are optimists, after all they are wagering on outcomes they believe are valid with targets regarding future results. Global market conditions for the moment have created expensive price action unfortunately, this as plenty of day traders wagering on their perceptions have found out while whipsaw movements and fast velocity have taken place and caused losses.

The USD continues to create turbulent higher values among many major currencies it is teamed against as financial institutions exhibit risk adverse tendencies. U.S Treasury yields may be going up because the U.S Federal Reserve continues to sound alarms regarding inflation, but the last two weeks of trading globally have seen an influx into U.S Treasuries as a safe haven move. Another signal that risk appetite is poor among global investors is because while the USD has gotten stronger, gold has also risen in value.

Gold Five Year Chart as of 26th Oct. 2023

And importantly, global markets are trading in conditions which are not considered normal. Many inexperienced people within financial institutions have not dealt with markets like the ones being battled now. High interest rates combined with risk adverse conditions because of concerns regarding an escalation of war conditions in the Middle-East are causing a storm of volatility. U.S stock indices are trading at mid-term lows, and this may continue to be a theme over the next few weeks and beyond, but certainly there are those among us who look towards sunnier days.

So what does an optimist do if they are a day-trader? Perspective needs to be questioned at all times by speculators, and bias regarding all insights by individuals need to be given consideration. A trader must make sure they are not trading based on noise which is coming from the media and tainted with hyperbole. A trader must also question their personal instincts making sure they are free of preconceived notions. Behavioral sentiment gets affected from many angles when market noise becomes loud. Looking for a quiet place to think about market direction is vital for everyone.

Speculators need to remain calm and stick to risk management tactics that prove effective even during chaotic trading conditions. A variety of ways to be involved with the markets directly exists for all, Forex, equities and indices, commodities, bonds are only some of the avenues. Traders can go long or short on their chosen positions, they can participate in the ‘cash’ markets, but can also participate in futures and options trading via time related duration.

Famous investors are known for taking advantage of lower values when fear is high. They look for value via fundamentals within assets with long-term track records. It is not an accident the USD is strong, U.S Treasuries are being sought, gold is being bought currently.

Trends are there to be found and can be taken advantage of by day traders who are looking for quick hitting outcomes, but they must proceed carefully. Because it is also important to acknowledge that no matter how bad circumstances sometimes look in the short-term, that a positive quality among we as humans is to seek optimism. There are reasons to participate in trades with a perspective knowing more tranquil days will come and the markets will grow calm again, markets can reverse and suddenly display risk appetite.

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Fed Rhetoric, U.S Consumers, and Fresh Concerns about China

Fed Rhetoric, U.S Consumers, and Fresh Concerns about China

U.S inflation data via the Consumer Price Index last Thursday met the anticipated result regarding the core number, and the broad statistics were only fractionally larger than expected. U.S Treasuries yields however jumped via quick reactions about stubborn inflation, then settled down. Equities via the major indices continue to show nervousness.

Day traders continue to get hit by choppiness, which means if they are not on the correct side of a trade initially, they can get knocked out of their positions quickly due to the use of too much leverage.

China produced another round of troublesome Consumer Price Index Producer Price Index reports last Friday, once again highlighting deflation is a legitimate concern for the nation.

The USD began to weaken within many major currency pairs on late Tuesday and early Wednesday, and then began to prove difficult with sideways price action. However, many currencies held onto their slight gains against the USD going into the weekend. But before a massive bearish trend against the USD actually can be sustained, perceptions about the U.S Federal Reserve stands clearly in the way regarding behavioral sentiment.

Inflation numbers last week remained strong enough to suspect the Fed will raise interest rates again on the 1st of November. As a way to keep traders on their toes, U.S Federal Reserve officials will be speaking at many functions over the entirety of this week, offering crumbles of evidence for their less than spectacular rhetoric on the global economy no doubt.

Gold has produced a rather startling climb in the past ten days and its one month charts resemble a rather turbulent roller coaster. Traders who have been pursuing the precious metal during its strong reversals the past handful of weeks have hopefully been using solid risk management while taking a speculative ride.

Gold One Month Chart as of 16th of October

Monday, the 16th of October, U.S Empire State Manufacturing Index – the number has come in slightly better than expected, but has still produced a negative reading of minus -4.6. While many U.S officials will not state it publicly, a decline in the manufacturing index may pave the way towards a more tranquil Federal Reserve. But this may be wishful thinking too, particularly if inflation remains elevated.

Tuesday, the 17th of October, U.S Retail Sales – the data about consumer spending will affect Forex if there are surprises. Both the core and broad reports are anticipated to be weaker than last month’s numbers. Weaker results could create some USD weakness.

Wednesday, the 18th of October, China Industrial Production, Gross Domestic Product and Retail Sales – the Industrial Production results are expected to be slightly weaker than last months, while the GDP outcome is being estimated to show a significant drop. If the growth number comes in at the anticipated 4.5% mark it would be another signal that China is struggling while trying to jump start the economy. USD/CNY traders should be careful around these reports.

GBP/USD Six Month Chart as of 16th October

Wednesday, the 18th of October, U.K Consumer Price Index – the CPI data from Great Britain is expected to show a slight decline from the previous month. While last week’s GDP numbers met their rather lackluster expectations; Construction, Manufacturing, Trade Balance data came in much worse than anticipated. While no one from the U.K government is going to cheer on the bad economic numbers from last week, these figures will make these CPI inflation results important to monitor. Will the U.K inflation numbers remain stubborn like the U.S? The GBP/USD certainly needs to be watched in the aftermath of this CPI report.

Thursday, the 19th of October, China New Home Prices – the housing bubble within China is a thing of the past. Last month’s outcome produced another negative number and a poor report would not be a surprise this week. Negative housing values hurt the Chinese public which have largely quantified their personal savings via their real estate holdings.

Thursday, the 19th of October, U.S Unemployment Claims – the weekly report will give another small dose of evidence regarding the strength of the U.S economy for financial institutions to consider.

Friday, the 20th of October, U.K Retail Sales – the consumer spending report is expected to produce a decline of minus -0.3%. GBP/USD traders may use this report as another sphere of influence.

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Shivers for Friday the 13th of Oct

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Shivers for Friday the 13th of Oct

10. Roseanne Roseannadanna: It just goes to show ya. It’s always something. If it’s not one thing, it’s another.

9: Book: Longitude: The True Story of a Lone Genius Who Solved the Greatest Scientific Problem of His Time by Dava Sobel.

8. World Cup Rugby: Ireland vs. New Zealand in a quarterfinal match on Saturday.

7. Crypto: Binance Coin slump continues as it edges towards 200.00 USD value.

6. Crude Oil: Price near 84.00 USD per barrel in a mixed week of trading.

5. Gold: Will stable price hold after increase via inflation data and stronger USD?

4. Indices: U.S stock markets declined yesterday, but not significantly in wake of inflation news.

3. USD: Burst of buying for USD took GBP, EUR and JPY and others back to lows.

2. CPI: Consumer Price Index rise yesterday was slight, but reinforced Fed policy.

1. U.S Treasuries: Bond yields a key barometer today and will affect broad markets.

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Inflation Data and Fed’s FOMC Meeting Minutes This Week

Inflation Data and Fed's FOMC Meeting Minutes This Week

Last week’s economic data ended with rather tantalizing headline jobs numbers as the U.S showed more hiring than expected, but while this grabbed media soundbites in many circles – the Average Hourly Earnings numbers came in below expectations. The broad Forex market proved dynamic with a stronger USD in many cases, but intriguingly equity markets in the States generated upwards momentum on Friday too. U.S Treasuries were mixed regarding their yields, and the 10-year bond while finishing up for the week was below its highs.

WTI Crude Oil One Month Chart as of 9th of Oct. 2023

The coming week will likely continue to produce nervousness, but outlook will be helped via a couple of U.S inflation reports and the FOMC Meeting Minutes report. Crude Oil prices should be watched as news from the Middle East unfolds. Gold remains under pressure.

Cryptocurrency speculators should keep their eyes on Binance Coin as it battles important lows. Bitcoin has remained relatively stable, but BNB/USD is near crucial support that could signal another wave of pressure is developing within the Binance exchange.

Monday, the 9th of October, International Monetary Fund – week-long meetings get underway and investors who participate in global stock markets and bonds should pay attention to the chatter.

Tuesday, the 10th of October, Central Bank Officials speaking – ECB President Lagarde will be speaking at the IMF conference. Federal Reserve officials will be speaking at meetings in the U.S. While the chatter may cause some nervous reactions briefly in financial institutions, it is unlikely the central bankers will say anything that is surprising.

Wednesday, the 11th of October, U.S Producer Price Index – the broad and core reports should be watched. Last week’s lower Average Hourly Earnings numbers were slightly surprising, but the recent higher energy costs could factor into the PPI results. The broad report is anticipated to show a decline. If the Producer Price Index statistics come in weaker than expected this could help the USD lose some strength.

Wednesday, the 11th of October, U.S FOMC Meeting Minutes – the publication is expected to follow the rhetoric already voiced by the Fed at their last press conference. However, insights regarding dialogue could move the needle in Forex. The U.S central bank is widely expected to raise the Federal Funds Rate in November, but what comes beyond this anticipated move is still in question. Expect the key word in the FOMC report to be ‘inflation’.

Thursday, the 12th of October, U.K Gross Domestic Product – the growth numbers from Great Britain are expected to show a slight rise in GDP. If the gains match expectations or come in better it could help bolster the GBP/USD which has been struggling against the USD for the past three months.

Thursday, the 12th of October, U.S Consumer Price Index – these reports will be crucial and will impact Forex and equities immediately after their release. While the Core CPI number is expected to match last month’s outcome, the broad reports are anticipated to be weaker. If the inflation numbers are stronger than expected the USD could gain strength, if the results are weaker it could help build selling momentum in the USD.

USD/CNY Six Month Chart as of 9th Oct. 2023

Friday, the 13th of October, China Consumer and Producer Price Index – the two releases will be watched carefully by investors. China’s economic data has been weak and financial institutions have become concerned by deflation. The USD/CNY may be impacted upon the publication of the reports.

Friday, the 13th of October, U.S Consumer Sentiment via the University of Michigan – following the CPI numbers from the U.S on Thursday, these numbers will show the attitude of U.S consumers and their spending habits. Financial institutions will monitor these numbers and correlate them to the U.S inflation reports seen earlier.

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Niblets for Friday 6th of October

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Niblets for Friday 6th of October

10. World Cups: Big weekend ahead in Rugby and Cricket international competitions.

9. Book: Darkness at Noon by Arthur Koestler.

8. Travel Tip: The Western Cape of South Africa.

7. Inflation: Dramatic increases in costs of food globally causing nutrition concerns.

6. Jobs: U.S Non-Farm Employment Change data on the calendar.

5. Music: “In a Sentimental Mood” by Duke Ellington and John Coltrane.

4. Gold: Precious metal still languishing as USD remains strong amidst nervousness.

3. Salaries: U.S Average Hourly Earnings statistics results today will be a catalyst.

2. USD: Major currencies still weak as strength of USD causes duress.

1. U.S Indices: Equities behavioral sentiment appears fragile in stock markets.

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Nervous Results Next: Forex and Equities Wait for Jobs Data

Nervous Results Next: Forex and Equities Wait for Jobs Data

Tomorrow’s jobs numbers from the U.S will get plenty of media coverage. Typically the Non-Farm Employment Change data is used as a selling tool by brokers to get their traders motivated and speculating on Forex and stocks via CFDs with the promise of swift price action. Many times the jobs numbers prove to have limited value, serving mostly as entertainment for back office risk managers at Forex houses as the whipsaw value changes wipe out speculators across the board. However, tomorrow may prove different.

Friday’s Non-Farm Employment Change and the Average Hourly Earnings statistics may produce dynamics worthy of their news coverage. Financial institutions are actually quite interested in tomorrow’s coming reports as the U.S Federal Reserve lingers in the shadows having spoken boldly about raising the Federal Funds Rate in November. It would take a weaker hiring result from the Non-Farm Employment Change data, and lower inflation numbers from the Average Hourly Earnings outcome to change financial institution outlooks regarding the U.S central bank.

EUR/USD One Month Chart as of 5th Oct. 2023

The trend of the EUR, GBP and JPY clearly demonstrate the value that has been lost against the USD over the past three months. While many financial institutions and speculators believe the USD will begin to lose strength eventually, timing the moment this is going to start happening in earnest is difficult. U.S Treasuries have come off of highs in recent trading, but nervousness remains abundant and recent heights remain in sight. Tomorrow’s U.S jobs number could reignite fear and spark behavioral sentiment which is reactionary.

As a side note, while U.S indices turned in some gains on Wednesday, the moves higher were not exactly momentous which sets up the U.S stock markets to produce a sudden reversal lower if widespread nervousness is produced today and tomorrow.

Importantly, hiring is believed to be weakening in the U.S by some analysts, but there is plenty of talk about a lack of qualified workers to fill important jobs still. So while the Non-Farm Employment Change number may come in below estimates and could spark hope among financial institutions the U.S Fed will be given a reason to sit on their hands, it is the Average Hourly Earnings inflation numbers which should be watched even more closely. If the costs of paying wages is more expensive than the previous month, this would spark concerns about price pressures remaining problematic.

Analysts have also continued to speak about concerns regarding revisions being made by the U.S government to past jobs reports, which means financial institutions are wary of positioning themselves fully based on the current month’s reporting. Accurate reporting from the U.S government has become problematic, and is causing nervous and conspiracy minded chatter in some trading corners.

WTI Crude Oil One Month Chart as of 5th Oct. 2023

Another factor which day traders may want to consider is the price of Crude Oil which has sunk below 84.00 USD per barrel in the footsteps of a one week decline. If the price of the commodity can remain muted and show a solid trend downwards this would help reduce hawkish rhetoric from the Federal Reserve.

As we go into tomorrow’s jobs numbers from the U.S, the broad markets do continue to exhibit nervousness which appears justified. The results of the Non-Farm Employment Change and Average Hourly Earnings may produce results which cause a reaction which shakes the outlooks of financial institutions and carries strong implications for day traders that matter.

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Elvis has Left the Building, but his Legend Lives On

Elvis has Left the Building, but his Legend Lives On

Book corner: Elvis: Destined to Die Young by Sally A. Hoedel.

Singer and icon Elvis Presley passed away forty-six years ago at the relatively young age of forty-two. Presley wasn’t the first singer – or celebrity, for that matter – to pass before his time. But the circumstances surrounding his death have garnered as much press as the man himself did for his fame and music during his short life: on August 16, 1977, following several years of increasingly serious health issues, Presley was found dead on his bathroom floor, bloated and in poor health, with staggering levels of drugs in his body.

What exactly happened, how it happened, plus why it happened – all have been the subject of a media feeding frenzy that put his personal physician, Dr. George Nikolopoulos (AKA “Dr. Nick”) on trial and had him stripped of his medical license in the state of Tennessee. Later, a series of biographies were written, none too complimentary, that attempted to put the pieces of the puzzle together.

Journalist Sally A. Hoedel, in her book Elvis: Destined to Die Young, attempts to do just that. The book is an odd spin on the standard rock star bios, which usually dwell on cultural impact and creativity. Hoedel, in a meticulously researched book, focuses on Elvis’ health and makes a bold but credible assertion: the prescription drugs, to which he was addicted in his later years, were not what killed him. He suffered from diseases in nine of eleven bodily systems, five of which were present from birth and as a result, was never going to live a long life.

Hoedel begins with Elvis’ family history and takes the reader back to early twentieth-century backwoods Mississippi, at the time one of the poorest regions in America. She explains that his maternal grandparents were first cousins, something that happened with alarming frequency in that era of the American South before modern medical practices and society’s taboos put a stop to it. Elvis’ maternal grandmother, Doll, suffered from Alpha-1 antitrypsin deficiency (misdiagnosed as tuberculosis), a genetic disorder causing liver and lung issues. The resulting union, she explains, caused medical issues for their progeny. Elvis’ mother, Gladys, died at the age of 46 following liver problems, which Hoedel explains was widespread in her family tree and passed on to Elvis (his autopsy confirmed that he was a carrier). According to Hoedel’s book, it is not a coincidence that the mother and son died at around the same age.

Elvis also suffered asthma as a child, also a possible result of Alpha-1, and frequent bouts of tonsilitis, the latter well until his adult years and way past the age at which this sickness is common. But two ailments appeared in his early years that would plague him his entire life with catastrophic ramifications. He suffered horrible constipation problems, putting him in constant pain and creating additional colon issues, and he was a lifelong insomniac. Regarding the latter, Hoedel explains that in his 1970s performing years, he was unable to sufficiently rest enough between performances and suffered exhaustion, sometimes ending up in the hospital. In fact, the list of hospitalizations is staggering and is by far longer than that of any performer active today.

The second half of the book focuses on Elvis’ final touring years and the prescription drugs on which Elvis would create a dependency in his later years. Hoedel asserts that Elvis did not use drugs for recreational purposes, to escape from reality, or as a means to enhance his creativity, as was (and arguably still is) common to rock stars. As a patriot and religious Christian, he was staunchly against drug and alcohol abuse. Instead, he needed the drugs to manage his health. Hoedel describes in length the eleven bodily systems and the nine that were failing him, and why. A partial glimpse of those health issues includes arthritis, glaucoma (hence those giant-framed sunglasses he wore in the 70s), anemia, hypertension, diabetes, and an enlarged colon and spleen.

One wonders how he even got on stage to perform in that condition. The book deals at length with the grueling performance circuit he endured following his 1968 comeback, due to the Colonel. For example, Elvis would routinely play Las Vegas for weeks at a time, with two shows a night, giving a high-energy performance where he would lose several pounds of sweat per show. Hoedel describes shows in the 70s where he fell down on stage and others in which he had to sit down to catch his breath and rest, asking his backup singers to take over.

The books deals with the question, why? For example, why didn’t he take time off from performing to rest and to undergo proper medical examinations? In the chapters on Elvis’ early life, Hoedel describes the gut-wrenching poverty that Elvis endured as a child, where his parents struggled to provide for him. At one point, for example, his family lived in a shack in an alley. Hoedel explains that Elvis was determined to be a provider for himself and for his family. As the years went on, he added more and more friends and family to his payroll, such as his cousins and stepbrothers, etc., for altruistic purposes. He repeatedly said he was unable to take a break from performing since people were counting on him. This feeling of obligation was also in regards to his fans, too, as he avoided doing anything that would let them down. His need to perform was made worse by irresponsible and impulsive spending habits, creating a severe cash flow problem that routinely forced him to go back on the road.

The book also exonerates Dr. Nikolopoulos, who was skewered in the national press after Elvis’ death for having no regard for Elvis’ health and for being the provider that killed Elvis with an endless supply of drugs. Hoedel provides evidence to the contrary and gives him a fair say. She explains that Elvis would often go behind his back and seek prescriptions from other physicians.

Hoedel is an admitted fan and deals with Elvis with respect, painting him as a decent, though flawed, human being. Some of the stories present him as a sad character, a shock considering he was a man who looked for much of his life vibrant, healthy and handsome and who was worshipped by many as a god. She consulted with scores of experts for medical explanations and tries her best to present them in the book with stripped-down and clarifying terminology.

Elvis may have left the building, but his story lives on. This book proves it.

Purchase here: https://amzn.to/3LN4pEd

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Nervous Outlooks and Short Term Fixes Creating Anxiousness

Nervous Outlooks and Short Term Fixes Creating Anxiousness

A U.S government shutdown has been avoided, but the resolution highlights that an important year of political games is getting fully underway in Washington. Short term fixes via congressional agreements do not hide the fact the U.S government continues to bleed money and is adding to its deficit as yields on U.S Treasuries remain high.

Gold Five Day Chart as of 2nd October 2023

The price of gold has sank substantially in the past week, which shows the USD continues to be strong, and that speculative short-term games within the precious metal must always be kept in mind by day traders. Long term fundamental beliefs regarding the value of gold cannot stop momentary volatility.

GDP results from the U.S last week came in slightly below estimates, but the ability to still sustain growth also creates the suspicion the U.S economy remains stubbornly strong, which effectively puts the U.S Federal Reserve in a rather difficult place. Crude Oil prices have remained high, and this week’s coming jobs data will be important for short and mid-term market participants as they position themselves while nervous behavioral sentiment continues to be evident.

U.S stock markets are near three month lows and trading conditions choppy, this as yields on U.S Treasuries are elevated and create a tough road for speculators to navigate in the short-term.

Monday, 2nd of October, U.S ISM Manufacturing PMI – a reading below 50 is anticipated which would mean sentiment remains negative regarding the U.S economy, but Core Durable Goods Orders came in better than expected last week. Thus, the result of this manufacturing report could play into short and near-term USD trading and cause a ripple as financial houses anticipate the jobs numbers later this week.

Tuesday, 3rd of October, Reserve Bank of Australia – the RBA is expected to keep its Cash Rate in place. If the RBA cooperates with financial institutions and does not change its key borrowing rate , the RBA Rate Statement will come into focus. However, the AUD/USD is still within the shadows of U.S Federal Reserve like most other major currencies.

Wednesday, 4th of October, U.S ISM Services PMI – the outcome from the Services report is expected to fall below last month’s outcome. The slight miss in the GDP numbers last week was noteworthy, but the better than expected Core Durable Goods results will make this report of interest and provide a bit of impetus to the USD and U.S indices before Friday’s key jobs data – particularly if the Services reading is better than anticipated.

GBP/USD Three Month Chart as of 2nd Oct. 2023

Thursday, 5th of October, U.K Construction PMI – while not considered a major publication by many analysts, the ordering by purchasing managers in Britain may prove relevant as an indicator regarding outlook. The Bank of England held their interest rates in place a couple of weeks ago and this was based on the belief the U.K economy is slowing. The Construction PMI report is expected to come in slightly below last month’s outcome which could set the table for slight choppiness in the GBP/USD which has continued to trend lower.

Friday, 6th of October, U.S Non-Farm Employment Change and Average Hourly Earnings – the combination of these two reports will impact USD trading before their publication and afterwards for several hours. Financial institutions will examine these statistics carefully. If there is a hint of weakness in the U.S jobs market and wage inflation is tame, this could make the USD weaker. However, if jobs hiring remains firm and there is a slight uptick in the costs employers are having to pay workers, the USD could get stronger.

postN57.1

Concerns Ahead and a Potentially Noisy Week for Day Traders

Concerns Ahead and a Potentially Noisy Week for Day Traders

In the wake of last week’s central banks follies, day traders have what may appear on the surface a rather comfortable week of economic data to consider as they make their wagers. However, there are outside risk events looming which will likely stir the emotions and positions of financial institutions, and cause knock on tremors that speculators feel caused by a noisy storm of experts and media pundits.

SP 500 Index Three Month Chart as of 25th of Sept. 2023

U.S equity indices have struggled recently and this should be viewed as a barometer of current behavioral sentiment. Concerns regarding higher Crude Oil prices, and talk of a growing U.S political crisis as a government shutdown is threatened (remember next year’s election is shadowing all spectacles in Washington D.C presently) highlight the nervous state of affairs. The USD has been stronger and gold has remained under pressure in recent trading. Risk adverse trading is proving rather flavorful for the moment.

The ongoing strong rhetoric from the U.S Federal Reserve and what appears to be an almost certain interest rate hike in November is causing market sentiment to remain anxious. Financial institutions are not only lining up to buy U.S Treasuries, but money market funds are also being sought too which offer the ability to accumulate returns from higher interest rates. While cash is being parked in ‘sure things’ because financial institutions and large investors are keen on locking in ‘known’ returns (profits), this creates potentially less money supply for buying of U.S and global equities momentarily.

Troubling economic data continues to mire the terrain also for financial institutions, and the heightened fear is causing a reaction which day traders need to deal with as short-term volatility mounts creating dangerous speculative conditions. Consumers face a rather large bag of ‘troubles’ via higher mortgages, debt obligations on credit cards and student loans, and inflation costs. Yet, intriguingly the U.S economy has shown resilience which is almost perplexing.

Current behavioral sentiment appears fragile and ready to crack open into a chaotic storm if too much pressure is exerted. Day traders should be cautious this week because plenty of diatribes and warnings are sure to be heard. Unfortunately the warnings being heard now for this coming week could prove correct.

EUR/USD Six Month Chart as of 25th Sept. 2023

Monday, 25th September, Germany Business Climate via Ifo – investors will keep their eyes on the sentiment reading from Germany which is expected to be worse than last month’s results. The EUR/USD is trading at six month lows.

Tuesday, 26th September, U.S CB Consumer Confidence – the result is anticipated to be slightly negative compared to last month’s outcome. U.S consumers have remained strong and financial institutions will want to see if they remain optimistic regarding their outlooks. The outcome could affect the USD, particularly if the number is weaker than expected.

Wednesday, 27th September, U.S Durable Goods Orders – this report could prove noteworthy via the broad and core reports. Durable Goods Orders are a relatively important barometer on U.S big ticket spending and demand. The numbers are likely to cause a rumble in U.S equity markets.

Thursday, 28th September, Germany CPI – the inflation results will be watched carefully by EUR/USD speculators. Higher prices in Germany are not welcome and a larger number than anticipated would be troubling.

Thursday, 28th September, U.S GDP – the Gross Domestic Product data from the States on Thursday will be closely monitored and likely provide impetus for Forex and major indices. If the growth numbers are stronger than expected this will serve as another nail for the U.S Federal Reserve to hit when it makes its case for another interest rate hike. While it is good the U.S economic growth numbers have been relatively strong, better than expected data could play into U.S Treasury yields remaining high and spark additional complex considerations for investors.

Friday, 29th September, Canada GDP – the data from Canada is expecting a negative ‘growth’ result which would have an affect on the USD/CAD.

Friday, 29th September, U.S University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment – the revised numbers will give insights into American spending habits. The previous two months have been more lower than anticipated, this outcome is expected to produce a reading of 67.7.

Saturday, 30th September, China Manufacturing PMI – while the Purchasing Managers Index reports from China are forecast to show slight improvements, analysts remain worried about economic conditions in the nation. Transparency remains a focal point for investors who want to make sure the results they are being given are accurate.

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Morsels for Friday 22nd of Sept.

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Morsels for Friday 22nd of Sept.

10. Rugby: World Cup match between South Africa and Ireland is tomorrow in Paris.

9. Book: Winning The Loser’s Game by Charles D. Ellis.

8. Travel Tip: Prague, if you haven’t had the chance to visit, do yourself a favor – go.

7. Cryptocurrencies: Binance Coin still ‘flirting’ with lower values and ‘troubles’.

6. European Central Bank: Surprise interest hike last week, but EUR/USD struggling.

5. Gold: Price of the precious metal facing tests as USD remains strong.

4. WTI Crude Oil: Energy price for the commodity remains near 90.00 USD.

3. Federal Reserve: U.S central bank was polite on Wednesday, but perhaps misguided.

2. Bank of England: Yesterday’s pause showed ‘backbone’, but GBP/USD suffering.

1. U.S Stock Indices: Friday’s trading will begin with 3 month lows being tested.

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Wednesday Federal Reserve Prediction and Central Bank Unity

Wednesday Federal Reserve Prediction and Central Bank Unity

Later today the Federal Reserve will release its Federal Funds Rate and FOMC Statement. Jerome Powell will also field questions. My prediction regarding the Fed today is that the Federal Reserve will hold (pause). It will say inflation remains problematic and stubborn, and the Fed continues to monitor economic conditions it finds complex. The high costs of energy (Crude Oil) will be presented as part of the problem.

The Fed will say they will strongly consider an interest rate hike next month, thus bracing the markets for what financial institutions have already traded into the system. This because trading houses have listened to the Fed already and believed that a pause would be seen for a few months, but cracks in sentiment quickly appeared in mid-July because of the Fed’s cloudy rhetoric as it spoke out of both sides of its mouth. Ratings downgrades and worries began, the USD sprung to significant values, higher U.S Treasury yields have flourished and increased fears for the long-term investment world. All the noise has certainly helped doomsayers.

The problem for the Fed and they should be aware of this, is that their interest rate hike threats have little direct affect on the price of Crude Oil. The rise in oil prices is directly due to Saudi Arabia cutting back on production. The U.S has much less influence on Saudi Arabia then it would like to believe it does. The Saudi Arabia government is interested in sustaining a profitable price for the commodity. At 90.00 USD per barrel, Saudi Arabia is making significant profit, but under 80.00 USD per barrel they grow concerned. After all someone has to pay for the ‘Line’ project of Neom.

Getting back on point, if the Fed is so intent on raising rates they should do so now. Not next month. But as the Federal Reserve and other major central banks often demonstrate, they are reactive – not proactive. Meaning if the Fed has no direct influence on the high price of energy that they should go ahead now and influence the marketplace instead of rattling a sword which only creates nervous global behavioral sentiment.

And yes, a hike of the Federal Funds Rate would be problematic for credit and cash reserves of consumers and businesses, which face more expensive obligations regarding loans and bonds. However, if you are merely going to threaten to do something, why not do it now and say without a doubt – like the ECB did last week – this will be our last hike for the foreseeable future. But the Fed is likely to prove they have limited desire to act swiftly and try to remain painfully polite, very much like when they refused to acknowledge inflation was a real threat when it started in earnest over two years ago.

GBP/USD One Month Chart as of 20th Sept. 2023

Lastly, the Bank of England will make their pronouncements tomorrow, and some are suggesting the BoE because of today’s ‘weaker’ inflation results will not raise the Official Bank Rate. However, I disagree, inflation is still high in the U.K and the Bank of England may also feel it has to protect GBP value.

Last week’s interest rate hike from the European Central Bank, which I didn’t believe would happen and was wrong about, suggests the BoE and ECB may have privy knowledge regarding the Fed’s inner thinking. It is quite possible the European’s raised rates last week not only to fight inflation, but because they had been warned by the Federal Reserve that the U.S central bank wants to ‘sound’ aggressive. There is reason to believe if the Fed doesn’t raise tonight, but groans on about a complex economy and stubborn inflation and the need to consider raising rates next month, the BoE will feel very compelled to still hike the Official Bank Rate by a quarter of a point tomorrow.

Nothing quite like coordinated banter between the major central banks which have already demonstrated a rather stark level of mistakes over the past two years. Why not add onto the shenanigans today and tomorrow? Good luck to us all.

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ICC Men’s Cricket World Cup 2023 – Thoughts and Predictions

ICC Men’s Cricket World Cup 2023 – Thoughts and Predictions

The 13th edition of the ICC Men’s Cricket World Cup is scheduled to commence in October 2023, featuring a total of 48 thrilling matches. This tournament holds the prestigious title of being the “flagship event of the international cricket calendar,” according to the International Cricket Council (ICC). India has the honor of hosting this edition, a choice that aligns well with India’s global prominence. This decision gains added significance in a year when India became the world’s most populous nation, and its GDP growth rate ranks among the fastest of any major economy.

The sport of cricket has expanded its footprint across the globe, being embraced by numerous countries. However, in this edition, only 10 teams will participate, a deliberate choice to maintain the intensity of the matches. Eight out of these 10 teams earned their spots through the super league performance, while the final two, Sri Lanka and Netherlands, secured their places via a “world cup qualifier tournament.” It’s important to note that there are no newcomers in this edition; all participating teams have previous experience at this level.

Based on performance rankings, four teams stand out as strong contenders for a spot in the semifinals: India (ranked 1), England (2), Pakistan (3), and New Zealand (4). However, it’s crucial to remember the disclaimer from financial investment products: past performance is no guarantee of future results. The eventual World Cup winner will likely be a team that doesn’t rely solely on star players, but boasts a balanced composition with multiple match-winners. In another analogy with the financial world, it’s akin to maintaining a diversified investment portfolio, a prudent allocation strategy that can weather various market conditions and risks.

India currently holds the top ranking and demonstrated their prowess by convincingly defeating Sri Lanka in the recent Asia Cup. Throughout the Asia Cup, diverse Indian players showcased their talents in different games, highlighting the team’s depth of match-winners and individuals capable of thriving under pressure. These qualities are pivotal during major tournaments, making India a favorite to claim the World Cup. Additionally, as the host nation, India enjoys the advantage of playing on home soil, further boosting their prospects in the tournament.

England enters the competition as defending champions, having triumphed in the thrilling 2019 World Cup finals against New Zealand, a match that ended in a tie. Ultimately, England secured victory based on a technicality. It’s essential to note that this outcome in no way diminishes England’s deserving win, as the result could have swung in either direction. Since then, England has maintained their dominant form, boasting a squad teeming with players capable of leading their team to victory. On paper, this team is arguably the most well-balanced, featuring a batting lineup that combines power hitters and run accumulators, as well as a versatile bowling attack capable of delivering both pace and swing or employing a slow, stifling approach.

Pakistan’s performance often oscillates, creating a roller-coaster of emotions for their dedicated fan base. On their best days, Pakistan can outclass the favorites, but they also exhibit a tendency to falter in tight contests. In the recent Asia Cup, despite being favored, they fell short of reaching the finals due to injuries to key players and lapses during critical moments. Pakistan’s success frequently hinges on the prolific scoring by their captain, Babar Azam, and the batting prowess of Mohammed Rizwan. In the bowling department, their reliance on superstars like Shaheen Shah Afridi and Haris Rauf is evident. This dependency on specific players presents a challenge to their World Cup aspirations.

New Zealand is somewhat of a statistical anomaly, consistently producing a remarkable number of world-class players from a relatively small population. They excel in identifying promising talent and nurturing it to create high-performance athletes. Furthermore, the New Zealand team is affectionately known as the ‘nice guys’ of cricket, celebrated for their amiable nature. Like Pakistan, the New Zealand team places considerable reliance on specific players, with the batting finesse of Kane Williamson and Tom Latham, combined with the lethal fast bowling of

Trent Boult, serving as a cornerstone of their success. The success of the team will depend on these star players maintaining their form throughout the tournament.

Two teams with contrasting World Cup histories deserve attention: Australia, a five-time champion, and South Africa, a team that has never reached the finals despite its quality. Australia, while not as dominant as in the past, continues to display a solid brand of cricket. The team is currently undergoing a transition, with younger players assuming leadership roles. Recent performances may not indicate peak form, so Australia lifting the cup would underscore their commitment to process and mental training.

South Africa finds itself in a similar situation to Australia, boasting numerous talented players but struggling to maintain consistent performance. Both Australia and South Africa appear to have individual excellence, but face challenges in cohesively functioning as a team.

In conclusion, India and England emerge as the front-runners for a coveted spot in the World Cup final. These two teams showcase a balanced roster with game-changing abilities. However, the question looms: can Pakistan’s star-studded lineup carry them to the summit, or will New Zealand’s proficient athletes secure another final berth? Could Australia recreate history, or will South Africa, long awaiting their breakthrough in a World Cup tournament, finally shine on the global stage? Alternatively, could an underdog team spring a remarkable surprise? Only time will tell. One certainty remains, though: winning a high-pressure World Cup tournament requires more than just physical fitness and mental resilience; it demands unwavering heart and determination.