Posts tagged: GDP

The USDJPY is now again in a dangerous value range near-term as it battles within a higher trend. The BoJ did intervene twice – in late April and early May – to try and damper speculative buying zeal of the USD/JPY and stop overly exuberant selling of the JPY. But they have been acting duplicitous as they have also wanted to no doubt allow a weaker Yen – while keeping its value within control. The BoJ has likely been hoping the Fed is going to sound more dovish this week, but if the Fed sounds more cautious than had been anticipated it could set the table for remarkably dynamic price action in the USD/JPY this week and next. If the currency pair moves too high, the BoJ could intervene again, particularly after the Fed’s FOMC pronouncements. So traders need to be careful.

Traders likely know that tomorrow CPI data and the Fed are on the schedule and these will be key events, but the noise generated around the inflation statistics and FOMC rhetoric should be viewed through the eyes of not only potential reactions from financial institution behavioral sentiment, but the possibility many of the ‘big houses’ have already positioned for the outcomes they believe will play out. In other words day traders should be ready for whipsaw trading results in the immediate aftermath of the Fed’s FOMC Statement and Press Conference.

Last week’s Non-Farm Employment Change numbers provided intriguing forensic data which will stir the suspicions of large players in Forex, equity indices and Treasuries. The jobs numbers via the headline stats looked strong. However, it must be said U.S government hiring continues to pick up, which can be looked at as an expensive way to fuel a sugar high for Americans as the States go into an election season.

Also full time workers continue to add part-time work to their tasks, this to battle rising inflation no doubt which is making their paychecks actually less effective, even if they are getting raises and receiving extra money from the added work loads they are taking on. The costs of products in the U.S are outpacing rising income. Also there is a fact that while part-term hiring is on the rise, full-time hiring is declining along with the average amount of hours employees are working per week.

The Gross Domestic Product numbers from the U.S are in decline. If folks push aside their political ideologies and look at real job numbers on the back pages of Friday’s report, and then ask why people are working less hours it is easy to conclude many businesses are actually cutting back expenses in order to try and remain profitable.

All three major stock indices from the U.S remain in sight of record highs, while there is caution surrounding the mid-term, investors still seem to be banking (wagering) on the U.S Fed to become more dovish over the long-term. Part of this analysis includes the belief that weaker GDP will eventually start to impact inflation and that this conclusion will affect the decision making of the U.S Federal Reserve at some juncture.

The Fed finds itself in a precarious position right now. They need to sound cautiously optimistic. It is an election year and they know this too. The Fed cannot publicly say they want growth to slow down because that would irritate most Americans and the White House, but they know full well that slowing GDP eventually should lower demand for products and thus erode inflation pressures.

Yet turning this full circle, the hiring being done by the U.S government, and the as of yet unmentioned fact the U.S  Treasury has increased its sales of Two Year Notes since around November; and the record amount of money the U.S is spending via a slew of suspicious costs like the ‘student loan forgiveness’, creates a muddled and over-heated fiscal policy which could be interpreted as trying to buy votes from those receiving the gifts. In other words, while the Fed is trying to stress it is battling inflation with higher interest rates and anticipates lowering them eventually, other facets of the U.S government are making this difficult because of the record amount of spending and interest rate payments they are making on short term Treasury notes. Jobs and money in the short-term are candy for voters, but the government has problems ahead regarding conflicting policies because it can lead to more economic problems.

So what do financial institutions think, well they are focused on returns for their clients. They are also looking ahead and trying to swim waters that are murky but offer the ability to profit for themselves too. They might believe they know the landscape just as well as the Fed does, and financial institutions also understand what will be said and can be done may be two different things. What to expect moving forward therefore remains confusing over the mid-term for everyone.