Posts tagged: Hormuz Strait

Even if this was not the case, in the art of the Middle Eastern deal, perception is more important than fact. Whether the Trump Administration actually twisted Israel’s arm due to Iran’s demands or not, the fact that Israel has agreed not to bomb the Dahiya section of Beirut after announcing that they would gives a message to the Lebanese people and government that Iran still calls the shots in Lebanon and not to rush to support those who wish to disarm or dismantle Hezbollah since you will be on the losing side.

Lebanon has been embroiled in civil wars since its inception. Beirut, the “Paris of the Middle East” has never known quiet times although that did not stop the partying (sort of like Paris itself today) and Iran’s involvement, much like Syria’s and the PLO’s before has not helped. Before the PLO inspired civil war in the mid 1970’s, after King Hussein threw them out of Jordan, the civil wars were about Lebanon itself. The French thought they created a formula for the creation of a semi-western state by dividing up the power centers amongst the religious and ethnic groups – Maronite-Christians got the Presidency, the Sunnis the Prime Minister-ship, the Shiites the speaker of the Parliament. The Druze historically were appointed Chief of the General Staff of the army.

This formula was, as can be imagined, not one for the free exchange of ideas but caused a rush to create power centers and led to conflict, civil and military. But it was all internal. Once the PLO and Yassir Arafat came, Israel became a factor in the civil war since Israel had to cross the border to stop the PLO from its numerous cross border terrorist attacks. After the First Lebanon War and the forced exit of the PLO, Iran created Hezbollah with the sole aim of using it, in the future, to destroy Israel. Therefore, from the late 1970’s until today, the Lebanese state has been embroiled, often against its will, in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

The goal of the Trump Administration’s negotiations in Washington between Israel and the Lebanese government is to break Iran’s stranglehold over Lebanese internal and external policy and allow it to either establish diplomatic relations with Israel or at least to put the two countries in the situation they were in before the late 1970’s – and that was a quiet, irrelevant border for both countries.

The real or even perceived notion that Beirut was “saved” from Israeli bombing by Iran’s demands has set back that goal and given Hezbollah and hence Iran, veto power over Lebanese government policy. The correct answer to Iran after their demands were made tying Lebanon to the cease fire was that Lebanon is none of your business and if your proxy decided to join your war then they will have to take responsibility for it. The time for “protecting” Lebanon was when you ordered Hezbollah to come to your aid and attack Israel’s north. The result of that – the administration needs to tell both Iran and the Lebanese government and people, is the loss of Lebanese sovereign territory to Israel and the destruction of Shiite villages in the south of the country. A further price is the destruction of the Beirut neighborhood in which Hezbollah has command and control facilities as well as underground arms depots.

Iran cannot be seen to be the savior of Beirut and Lebanon but the cause of its troubles. No amount of rhetoric to the contrary will prove to the Lebanese government and people what they see on the ground now – only Iran has the power to stop Israel’s bombing of their country. The Administration has set back its goals in Lebanon without aiding its war effort in Iran. The constant Iranian threat to make the war regional is coming true since the Administration is not taking seriously Iranian deal-making methods.

As we wrote two months ago in The Art of the (Middle Eastern) Deal” – “Each ‘concession’ by Iran will have to be paid for twice or three times – once upon agreement and then again before numerous times before implementation”. Iran agreed to open the Straits and then reneged and the US is negotiation for that again – AFTER Iran received the much needed cease fire.

Now, after the administration denied linkage to Lebanon, Iran is again demanding that linkage – not in order to open the Straits, but just to continue negotiations. This pushes both American interests to the back burner – the opening of the Straits of Hormuz and the normalization of Lebanon as a country free from Iranian influence. And the “concession” that Iran is giving for this is just a continuation of the negotiations that have been going on for over two months. In other words, like most negotiations in the middle east that are supposed to lead to “peace” – this too is moving backwards.

President Trump has asked for patience and has insisted that the United States will never accept a bad deal – and I am willing to be patient and believe that. But what if the goal of the Iranian government is not a deal at all but the ability to re-set their genocidal triad or missiles, proxies and nuclear weapons? These negotiations have given them time to dig out their underground missile cities, to keep their enriched uranium hidden and now to revive their flailing major proxy – Hezbollah. In the end, as the President said, it will be good, but by allowing Iran to take the initiative he is making it harder to get to that “good”.

What we have now is a continuation of American-Iranian negotiations where a concession was given to Iran and they are no closer to reaching an agreement. Iran is now perceived as the power to be reckoned with in Lebanon and Israel is put on a level with Hezbollah. Iran and the United States are now equals in this negotiation, something that was not the case when they started. While it might in fact end well, the journey is now a longer and more difficult one. The perception given by the last 24 hours that Iran controls Lebanon, is now the “fact” that the Middle East “knows”.