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December Cheer, Full Volume, Considerations for Coming Week

by with No Comment AMT MarketsAssetsFeatured Highlights

December Cheer, Full Volume, Considerations for Coming Week

The EUR/USD finished the past week of trading below its starting point essentially closing this Friday around the 1.08790 mark. While the slight downturn may have hurt bullish day traders who kept on looking for higher ground in the short-term, the EUR/USD did trade above the 1.10000 on late Tuesday and held its ground briefly on Wednesday before starting to trend lower. A depth of nearly 1.08310 was momentarily challenged on Friday with solid price velocity, but the EUR/USD did exhibit some buying before going into the weekend.

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EUR/USD Five Day Chart as of 3rd December 2023

Speculators who were looking for a higher finish for the week from the EUR/USD may have been disappointed, but the end of the trend upwards may not be finished. U.S Fed Chairman Jerome Powell sounded optimistic on Friday regarding Fed policy and mentioned a ‘soft landing’ and indicated interest rates at their current level will still need a bit of time to have their full effect. U.S growth numbers via the Gross Domestic Product came in stronger than expected on the 29th of November, but inflation data continues to show a slight erosion.

This puts the U.S Federal Reserve in position to actually sound rather neutral when the FOMC Meetings conclude in a week and a half. And if global events do not cause any sudden alarms to ring, it appears risk appetite is within a rather optimistic state. U.S equity indices continued to roll along merrily and the 3 big indexes are challenging highs. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are challenging July values, and the Dow Jones 30 is trading at ratios last seen in January of 2022.

While U.S Treasury yields have also continued to erode and are near mid-term lows, the USD/JPY continued to create a bearish trend for the week and is trading at values last seen in the second week of September. The GBP/USD finished the week within sight of highs attained on Tuesday and Wednesday, this as the currency pair also trades near values last seen in late August and early September. The EUR/USD is the outlier among the three major currency pairs and speculators may look at the EUR as potentially being in oversold territory as the week gets set to begin. Risk management as always is essential for wagering on Forex.

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S&P 500 One Year Chart as of 3rd December 2023

The next two and a half weeks of trading will see full volumes, this before holiday trading starts to hit the broad marketplace. The upward moves in U.S equity indices may be seen as overdone by many analysts, but the trend has been strong and trying to step in front of the ‘optimism’ within the indexes may prove expensive in the coming days and weeks. Day traders should make sure conservative leverage is being used if they are attempting to climb aboard the moving train.

Some analysts are pointing out correctly, that if it weren’t for a few ‘workhorse’ corporations in the U.S equity indices, declines would have been seen. But day traders who are wagering on CFDs via their brokers and financial institutions investing in the three major stock indices are likely enjoying their profitable returns.

Monday, the 4th of December, E.U Sentix Investor Confidence – the reading is expected to come in with a negative result, but slightly better than last month’s outcome of minus -18.6. About a hour and a half before this European survey, German Trade Balance numbers will be released. The EUR/USD may be affected by this data, but the currency pair is likely moving within the shadows of behavioral sentiment which is USD centric. Europe is struggling with recessionary conditions, but it is outlook which drives the marketplace. If the EUR/USD can find durable support it may prove that its bullish trend has not come to an end.

Tuesday, the 5th of December, U.S ISM Services Purchasing Managers Index – an improvement is expected compared to last month’s outcome. Recent data from the manufacturing sector came in less than expected, thus the services sector will be watched closely, but as long as the result is around the expectation this will not hinder broad market sentiment. Meaning the report could be a non-factor.

Wednesday, the 6th of December, Canada BoC Overnight Rate – traders will be keen to see what line of rhetoric is taken within the Rate Statement from the Bank of Canada. No change to borrowing costs are expected. The rate is anticipated to remain at 5.00%. The economy of Canada has been struggling as recessionary clouds are shadowing, but recent GDP data was slightly better than expected and inflation has shown signs of weakening. The USD/CAD went into this weekend near its lows and in sight of values seen in late September.

Thursday, the 7th of December, China Trade Balance – economic numbers via the manufacturing sector last week came in below expectations. The lackluster China data may be a factor in the weaker WTI Crude Oil prices, but perhaps that is only speculative. Some investors participating in China are worried about outlook over the mid-term. Analysts will comment on the Trade Balance numbers, but traders should make sure they separate the ‘noise’ which may be delivered from biased perspectives depending on ‘world view’ compared to actual outcomes and genuine insights.

Friday, the 8th of December, U.S Non-Farm Employment Change and Average Hourly Earnings – the jobs numbers will be looked at attentively by market participants. The data will be correlated to existing behavioral sentiment and risk appetite that has sustained a weaker USD, higher U.S equity indices, lower yields on U.S Treasuries and the high price of gold. If the jobs data comes in around expectations that will likely be enough for investors to remain calm and look forward to the 13th of December, this is when the U.S Federal Reserve will release its FOMC Statement – which may keep risk appetite strong.

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FOMO Potential Could Fuel FX and Equities with Calm Winds

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

FOMO Potential Could Fuel FX and Equities with Calm Winds

Traders should not run towards their trading screens as the week begins, steady attitudes and risk taking tactics will be needed. Yet, there may be reasons to get excited. The return of full market volume as U.S financial institutions open and employees get back in their offices after the long holiday weekend needs to be monitored. The term ‘FOMO’ – fear of missing out – may be heard this week if U.S equity indices continue to shine, Forex demonstrates additional USD weakness and U.S Treasury yields decline further. There will be a whirlwind of economic data and opportunities for ‘official’ rhetoric in the days ahead.

Day traders should ask questions about the results which were seen technically via their charts last week, assets all struggled to find momentum last Thursday and Friday. And earlier in the week many Forex pairs produced choppy results. But here’s the thing, behavioral sentiment was rather muted as large speculators and financial institutions understood that trading volumes would be light – this caused strong bursts and sudden reversals early – but by the end of the week rather calm waters.

Many trading houses could increase their speculative positions this week based on their outlooks. Financial institutions clearly have believed the USD had been overbought and the ability of the GBP, EUR and JPY to gain in the past two weeks are possible signs large ‘players’ remain positioned for further USD weakness.

Equity markets have done well in November, but the major indices including the Dow 30, S&P 500 and the NASDAQ Composite all started to garner strength in the last week of October. Mid-term highs are being achieved in U.S indices. The parade of buyers may not be done quite yet.

Economic data results are vital for day traders to understand because they provide insights into the thinking of financial institutions regarding their outlooks. It is not the trading of small speculators that moves markets, it is the power of large cash positions which drives results. Questions regarding where the cash is going and the allotments financial institutions are pursuing is a key to understanding how the markets are going to react. This information is not readily available for day traders, instead smaller speculators need to try to comprehend outlooks regarding positioning and timeframes of larger players.

Part of the FOMO factor could develop as financial institutions begin to question how much money they will hold in money market accounts for their clients. While the practices of large investors are always comforted by the notion they are making guaranteed returns, the pursuit of better results and the desire for risk appetite does drive behavioral sentiment when bullish markets are being exhibited.

This week will be intriguing as full volumes return to the marketplace today and tomorrow. From today until the 13th of December FOMC Statement from the U.S Federal Reserve, results in the financial markets could be speculative. Financial markets are starting to signal that optimism is creeping back into the mindsets of large investors who may believe mid-term economic scenarios have improved.

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EUR/USD Six Month Chart as of 27th November 2023

Monday, 27th of November, E.U. ECB President Lagarde – the European Central Bank leader will deliver thoughts regarding monetary policy to the European Parliament. While the E.U still is sufferning from recessionary numbers, economic data last week came in slightly better than estimated. However, the EUR/USD remains in a USD centric mode and this will continue this week.

Tuesday, 28th of November, U.S Consumer Confidence via the Conference Board, the numbers are expected to be slightly weaker than last month’s outcome. U.S economic data has been showing signs of being weaker than expected, last week’s Core Durable Goods Orders report followed this trend.

While this may be read as bad news by some people, day traders should note – particularly Forex speculators – that slightly weaker U.S economic data currently is music to the ears of many financial institutions because they believe the Federal Reserve will have to shift their rhetoric from aggressive to neutral.

Tuesday, U.S Federal Reserve Officials – a slew of FOMC members will be speaking at various events during the day. The Fed likes to give clues to the financial markets regarding their outlooks and perceptions regarding interest rates. The Federal Reserve has certainly paused their interest rate hikes.

The question now is if the U.S central bank will start to say while they remain diligent regarding inflation, that they now see signs of a ‘soft landing’ emerging within the U.S economy. If the Fed speakers begin to sound not only neutral, but offer hints of becoming potentially dovish by the spring of 2024 regarding monetary policy, this could spur USD selling.

Wednesday, 29th of November, Germany Preliminary Consumer Price Index – the inflation results are expected to be slightly weaker than last month’s outcome. German economic data has been recessionary, financial institutions know this, what large traders would like to see is stable results that are not wildly surprising.

Wednesday, 29th of November, U.S Preliminary Gross Domestic Product – the growth numbers are expected to show a slight increase. Equity markets, Forex and commodity markets will react to these results. The U.S economy has been surprisingly strong regarding growth. A slight slowdown regarding the GDP numbers would not be the worse thing, if growth numbers did come in below the estimate this could fuel additional USD weakness.

But traders should not get overly ambitious and bet against the GDP numbers. If the expected outcome of 5.0% is delivered, equity markets could use this as additional fuel. The number is sure to be a talking point, but unless their is a massive divergence it may simply be a way to create noise for ‘talking heads’, when in fact behavioral sentiment regarding risk appetite remains optimistic.

Thursday, 30th of November, China Manufacturing PMI – the result is forecast to show a slight improvement. China economic numbers remain a concern, particularly from the real estate sector which is suffering and is causing cascading troubles on other sectors within the nation. Global demand for products, as an example from European countries, that are suffering recessionay pressures also is slowing China’s manufacturing. A slight improvement would be welcomed by global investors participating in China financial assets.

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WTI Crude Oil Six Month Chart as of 27th November 2023

Thursday, 30th of November, OPEC and JMMC Conference – the oil producers will certainly make their policies known and energy markets will react to the news and rumors. Commodity traders should note that WTI Crude Oil, Brent, Natural Gas and Unleaded Gasoline markets have been under price pressure and important mid-term cash support levels are in sight.

Thursday, 30th of November, U.S Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Index – this inflation reading is important and should be watched. The result is expected to be weaker than the previous month. If the outcome matches the anticipated reading of 0.2% or less, this could spur additional USD weakness. The Core PCE Index is an important reading for the U.S Federal Reserve regarding its inflation insights.

Friday, 1st of December, U.S Fed Chairman Jerome Powell – the Fed leader will be speaking at a college event in Atlanta. Traders should remember that about ten days before the Fed’s pause in November regarding its FOMC Statement, Powell delivered a large hint regarding monetary policy. The Fed Chairman’s comments will come late on Friday and could cause a reaction early next week if Powell’s remarks fuel more Forex speculation.

Additional note – the U.S jobs numbers will not be released this Friday, the Non-Farm Employment Change and Average Hourly Earnings results will be published on the 8th of December.

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Musings for the 17th of November

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Musings for the 17th of November

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10. Book: The Art of War by Sun Tzu.

9. Music: Pablo Casals playing Bach’s – The Six Cello Suites.

8. Cricket: India and Australia will meet in the World Cup Final this Sunday in a match between two of the world’s best squads.

7. Gold: The precious metal is trading within sight of its October highs and may find speculative buyers looking for potential upside via wagers.

6. Commerical Real Estate: WeWork bankruptcy knock on effects will cause additional strains in U.S market, this as the sector struggles with vacancies in this era of ‘remote’ employees.

5. Risk Appetite: U.S equity indices are at three month highs, U.S Treasury bond yields at one week lows as optimism grows in the outlooks of long-term investors.

4. Data Watch: Retail Sales numbers from the U.K, and U.S Housing Starts and Building Permits statistics will be released today.

3. USD: Dollar Index futures are trending lower and near values last seen in the third week of September as financial institutions brace for a weaker USD mid-term.

2. U.S Treasuries: Yields are incrementally declining, helping push the USD lower, and creating positive equities momentum, this as U.S bonds appear ready to sustain a cycle lower if investors can remain tranquil.

1. Federal Reserve: Inflation data via the CPI and PPI were weaker than anticipated, and the U.S Fed’s December FOMC Statement should begin to sound less agressive.

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Yields, Credit Worthiness, Trading and Geo-Political Risks

by with No Comment AMT MarketsAssetsFeatured Highlights

Yields, Credit Worthiness, Trading and Geo-Political Risks

Traders participating in Forex and equity indices this week may want to consider finding a very quiet room and avoiding the loud conjecture which is certain to be heard. U.S bond yields will remain a focal point the entire week, and Moody’s new negative label regarding U.S credit worthiness issued late on Friday will not help the Federal Reserve and Treasury as the size of U.S debt is called into question once again. Forex markets provided speculators velocity and volatility last Thursday and Friday, and this week’s risk events are certain to cause behavioral sentiment turbulence.

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USD/CNY Five Year Chart as of 13th November 2023

Added to the ‘fun’ for speculators this week will be the APEC Summit gyrations which will be held in San Francisco, and includes a scheduled meeting with President Joe Biden and President Xi Jinping this Wednesday. The meeting comes at a critical time as geo-political and economic concerns come from Asia, the Middle East and Eastern Europe.

However, traders should not allow their emotions to grow too nervous, financial institutions actually showed a taste for U.S equity indices last week and the price of gold has declined, while the value of Crude Oil per barrel has also eroded. This shows that even in the midst of carnival like barking from pessimistic naysayers, that investors are still participating in the broad markets and makeing bets on the notion that optimism will continue to show sparks of light.

Monday, 13th of November, U.S Federal Budget Balance – this report is certain to be rather negative if studied closely. However, investors already know this story, and last week’s Moody’s downgrade of U.S credit accountability has already rang alarms. Thus, this report will likely fall on deaf ears today.

Tuesday, 14th of November, E.U Flash GDP – the numbers from the European Union are exected to be negative. However, last week’s slightly better than expected Germany Factory Orders may help the European Gross Domestic Product results limit the capability of a surprisingly bad decline. An expectation of only minus -0.1% is awaited.

Tuesday, 14th of November, U.S Consumer Price Index – the inflation numbers from the States will get the attention of most global investors. The results are sure to affect the USD, Treasury yields and equity markets. A weaker than expected outcome could propel the USD lower. Stronger than estimated statistics could ignite buying of the USD based on the notion the Fed will feel compelled to remain aggressive via its monetary policy rhetoric.

Wednesday, 15th of November, China Industrial Production – while the APEC Summit is highlighted by the media, it is economic data from China which remains important. Data from the nation continues to be lackluster and demand for commodities, the USD/CNY, domestic real estate and conusmer spending are all being watched and questioned by financial analysts. A gain of 4.5% is expected.

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GBP/USD Three Month Chart as of 13th of November 2023

Wednesday, 15th of November, U.K CPI, the inflation numbers from Britain will be important and will follow Tuesday’s Average Earnings Index publication. The GBP/USD has found choppy terrain and the results of the combined numbers from the U.K will affect Forex, even if USD centric considerations remain key.

Wednesday, 15th of November, U.S Producers Price Index, Retail Sales, and the Empire State Manufacturing Index – these reports will be issued at roughly the same time and will factor into sentiment created from the U.S CPI data seen the day before. The combination of all these outcomes will play into the broad markets, and the USD within all major currency pairs. Weaker than anticipated numbers would be welcome by USD sellers. However, until the reports are published wagering on the USD will prove volatile and risk management is encouraged.

Thursday, 16th of November, U.S Federal Reserve Officials – at least 4 U.S Federal Reserve members will be speaking at various conferences. They are sure to give their opinions on the Federal Funds Rate outlook and will be asked to comment on the week’s data already published in the U.S regarding inflation and consumer spending.

Friday, 17th of November, U.K Retail Sales – a gain of 0.3% is expected compared to last month’s negative results. Speculators will react to the consumer driven data and the GBP/USD will again come under the influence of risk sentiment regarding outlook. However, traders need to understand these numbers are largely a result of looking backwards and not forwards regarding outcomes.

Friday, 17th of November, U.S Housing Starts and Building Permits – the American housing industry is being closely monitored and the high costs of mortgages is affecting the U.S marketplace. The Building Permits number is expected to be slightly lower than last month’s outcome. Traders should also keep their eyes on the potential of revisions to suddenly emerge from previous reports.

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Ready for Risks as Nervous Markets Await Plenty of Outcomes

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

Ready for Risks as Nervous Markets Await Plenty of Outcomes

So you want to be a trader. You imagine that it will be fun and possibly easy to make money from the comfort of a cafe, office, maybe a bus or subway train with a simple touch to an app on your phone that allows seamless possibilities to take advantage of trends that are easy to spot. Yet, this may not be the week to decide on beginning your endeavor, perhaps you will want to watch the global markets and learn from the possible mistakes of others in the coming days.

Simple trends for the moment have largely disappeared and financial markets face a rather important week of data and global risk events that not even the most experienced trader can comfortably embrace. Risk events will shadow this week of trading. There will be a lot of drums beating and earplugs are recommended for speculators.

To get started the war in the Middle East, actually the war between Israel and Hamas is ongoing and it will not end soon. Israel doesn’t want U.S ground troops and while some media sources may make these claims, it is extremely unlikely to happen. Yes, the U.S has sent war ships to the Mediterranean, but this is largely to suggest to Iran that the nation not become overtly active in the conflict.

Global investors who have been around the block and have traded when other conflicts have escalated – Ukraine, Iraq, Afghanistan, African wars, and simmering feuds between China and India are somewhat used to these news flows and developing crisis forays. It does not make things easier, but at the same time being able to separate the noise from the actual reality of these events is essential. Learning to be mindful of the media and its frequent empty hyperbole regarding what could happen next is vital. Traders need to be critical thinkers.

If a day trader can step away from concerns regarding conflicts and focus on how behavioral sentiment is going to develop via the gyrations of financial institutions and larger investors, they will go a long way in starting to pursue a more tranquil path and find the ability to organize their thoughts quietly.

Gold is flirting with the 2000.00 USD mark per ounce. U.S indices continue to trade near lows and risk adverse tendencies will likely continue to flourish in the near term. There is a parade of important data releases and rhetoric that will come this week. Traders who are technically driven should consider paying attention to the economic reports and pronouncements that will come as they mix with business outlooks and varying time frames that must be considered when making bets on the financial markets.

Most of Monday’s economic reports are in already. Australia posted better than expected Retail Sales. German Preliminary Gross Domestic Product statistics came in with a slightly better than anticipated number, although growth is still negative.

Tuesday, 31st of October, China Manufacturing PMI – economic data from China came in slightly better than expected the past week, but shadows lurk and the manufacturing numbers will help provide insights regarding headwinds the nation is facing. The USD/CNY remains at elevated levels. Transparency remains a desire for international investors who want to participate in China.

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USD/JPY Six Month Chart as of 30th October 2023

Tuesday, 31st of October, Bank of Japan – the BoJ is expected to make no changes to interest rate policy (you have heard this song before), but the USD/JPY remains near the 150.000 level and the Bank of Japan is not comfortable with this higher ratio. The question remains how they can combat this value properly. By suggesting the notion the BoJ can intervene when they want to, can keep financial institutions from over aggressively buying the USD/JPY. Expect to hear some of these intervention warnings again tomorrow.

Wednesday, 1st of November, U.S Federal Reserve Funds Rate and FOMC Statement – Jerome Powell made it pretty clear in mid-October the U.S Fed will likely not raise its interest rate at this meeting. However, he warned the potential exist to raise rates down the road if inflation shows unwanted sparks. American consumers are a reason for concern too, although the Fed will not admit this – the U.S Fed would like to see less consumer demand which they believe would help decrease inflation. Problematically, U.S Treasuries are not only sticking near higher yields because of the potential of higher interest rates, but they are also being bought as a safe haven because of Middle East worries. This will continue to put pressure on the U.S government because paying off bonds with higher yielding rates of returns to investors can become increasingly difficult, particularly when U.S government spending appears to be nearly out of control.

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GBP/USD Six Month Chart as of 30th October 2023

Thursday, 2nd of November, U.K BoE Official Bank Rate and Monetary Policy Summary – no changes are expected by the Bank of England. Perhaps like the ECB last week the Bank of England will try to ‘sound’ a sedate level of rhetoric and say they are monitoring economic conditions which remain rather lackluster, but are showing slight signs of improvement via inflation and potential growth. The GBP/USD continues to fight near lows and the 1.20000 level is likely an important juncture.

Friday, 3rd of November, U.S Non-Farm Employment Change and Average Hourly Earnings – the jobs numbers are expected to come in less than the previous month’s results. The wages report could be important if there is a significant change not corresponding with the estimate. Inflation needs to show signs of decreasing before the U.S Fed backs down from its aggressive interest rate stance, if the Average Hourly Earnings number remains stubborn, so will the U.S Fed.

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Points for Friday the 27th of Oct.

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Points for Friday the 27th of Oct.

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10. Rugby World Cup: South Africa Springboks versus New Zealand All Blacks in a titan championship tomorrow.

9. Word of the Day: ‘Resilience’ as Israel’s business and start-up sectors remain focused and strong.

8. El Nino: Change to ocean currents still problematic, Acapulco hit by significant damage via Hurricane Otis.

7. Data: U.S Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index could cause a reaction if the inflation numbers are higher than anticipated.

6. ECB: Pronouncements were consistent yesterday as Europe battles lackluster economy and elevated consumer costs.

5. U.S: Advance GDP results yesterday stronger than estimated, American consumers remain buyers.

4. Electric Vehicles: EV market showing fatigue as poor earnings from Tesla and other manufacturers confront investors due to ‘resource’ hurdles and as legitimacy of mass adaption is questioned.

3. USD: Trend and resistance levels under scrutiny from day traders and financial institutions as potential reversals are contemplated.

2. U.S Equity Indices: Dow Industrials, NASDAQ and S&P 500 now facing critical tests of late May 2023 support levels after yesterday’s selloff.

1. Behavioral Sentiment: Razor’s edge conditions in many assets are dangerous. Risk adverse elements are strong, timing a sustained shift of momentum is speculative.

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Optimism in Challenging Conditions and Time Considerations

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

Optimism in Challenging Conditions and Time Considerations

Traders by nature are optimists, after all they are wagering on outcomes they believe are valid with targets regarding future results. Global market conditions for the moment have created expensive price action unfortunately, this as plenty of day traders wagering on their perceptions have found out while whipsaw movements and fast velocity have taken place and caused losses.

The USD continues to create turbulent higher values among many major currencies it is teamed against as financial institutions exhibit risk adverse tendencies. U.S Treasury yields may be going up because the U.S Federal Reserve continues to sound alarms regarding inflation, but the last two weeks of trading globally have seen an influx into U.S Treasuries as a safe haven move. Another signal that risk appetite is poor among global investors is because while the USD has gotten stronger, gold has also risen in value.

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Gold Five Year Chart as of 26th Oct. 2023

And importantly, global markets are trading in conditions which are not considered normal. Many inexperienced people within financial institutions have not dealt with markets like the ones being battled now. High interest rates combined with risk adverse conditions because of concerns regarding an escalation of war conditions in the Middle-East are causing a storm of volatility. U.S stock indices are trading at mid-term lows, and this may continue to be a theme over the next few weeks and beyond, but certainly there are those among us who look towards sunnier days.

So what does an optimist do if they are a day-trader? Perspective needs to be questioned at all times by speculators, and bias regarding all insights by individuals need to be given consideration. A trader must make sure they are not trading based on noise which is coming from the media and tainted with hyperbole. A trader must also question their personal instincts making sure they are free of preconceived notions. Behavioral sentiment gets affected from many angles when market noise becomes loud. Looking for a quiet place to think about market direction is vital for everyone.

Speculators need to remain calm and stick to risk management tactics that prove effective even during chaotic trading conditions. A variety of ways to be involved with the markets directly exists for all, Forex, equities and indices, commodities, bonds are only some of the avenues. Traders can go long or short on their chosen positions, they can participate in the ‘cash’ markets, but can also participate in futures and options trading via time related duration.

Famous investors are known for taking advantage of lower values when fear is high. They look for value via fundamentals within assets with long-term track records. It is not an accident the USD is strong, U.S Treasuries are being sought, gold is being bought currently.

Trends are there to be found and can be taken advantage of by day traders who are looking for quick hitting outcomes, but they must proceed carefully. Because it is also important to acknowledge that no matter how bad circumstances sometimes look in the short-term, that a positive quality among we as humans is to seek optimism. There are reasons to participate in trades with a perspective knowing more tranquil days will come and the markets will grow calm again, markets can reverse and suddenly display risk appetite.

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Fed Rhetoric, U.S Consumers, and Fresh Concerns about China

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

Fed Rhetoric, U.S Consumers, and Fresh Concerns about China

U.S inflation data via the Consumer Price Index last Thursday met the anticipated result regarding the core number, and the broad statistics were only fractionally larger than expected. U.S Treasuries yields however jumped via quick reactions about stubborn inflation, then settled down. Equities via the major indices continue to show nervousness.

Day traders continue to get hit by choppiness, which means if they are not on the correct side of a trade initially, they can get knocked out of their positions quickly due to the use of too much leverage.

China produced another round of troublesome Consumer Price Index Producer Price Index reports last Friday, once again highlighting deflation is a legitimate concern for the nation.

The USD began to weaken within many major currency pairs on late Tuesday and early Wednesday, and then began to prove difficult with sideways price action. However, many currencies held onto their slight gains against the USD going into the weekend. But before a massive bearish trend against the USD actually can be sustained, perceptions about the U.S Federal Reserve stands clearly in the way regarding behavioral sentiment.

Inflation numbers last week remained strong enough to suspect the Fed will raise interest rates again on the 1st of November. As a way to keep traders on their toes, U.S Federal Reserve officials will be speaking at many functions over the entirety of this week, offering crumbles of evidence for their less than spectacular rhetoric on the global economy no doubt.

Gold has produced a rather startling climb in the past ten days and its one month charts resemble a rather turbulent roller coaster. Traders who have been pursuing the precious metal during its strong reversals the past handful of weeks have hopefully been using solid risk management while taking a speculative ride.

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Gold One Month Chart as of 16th of October

Monday, the 16th of October, U.S Empire State Manufacturing Index – the number has come in slightly better than expected, but has still produced a negative reading of minus -4.6. While many U.S officials will not state it publicly, a decline in the manufacturing index may pave the way towards a more tranquil Federal Reserve. But this may be wishful thinking too, particularly if inflation remains elevated.

Tuesday, the 17th of October, U.S Retail Sales – the data about consumer spending will affect Forex if there are surprises. Both the core and broad reports are anticipated to be weaker than last month’s numbers. Weaker results could create some USD weakness.

Wednesday, the 18th of October, China Industrial Production, Gross Domestic Product and Retail Sales – the Industrial Production results are expected to be slightly weaker than last months, while the GDP outcome is being estimated to show a significant drop. If the growth number comes in at the anticipated 4.5% mark it would be another signal that China is struggling while trying to jump start the economy. USD/CNY traders should be careful around these reports.

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GBP/USD Six Month Chart as of 16th October

Wednesday, the 18th of October, U.K Consumer Price Index – the CPI data from Great Britain is expected to show a slight decline from the previous month. While last week’s GDP numbers met their rather lackluster expectations; Construction, Manufacturing, Trade Balance data came in much worse than anticipated. While no one from the U.K government is going to cheer on the bad economic numbers from last week, these figures will make these CPI inflation results important to monitor. Will the U.K inflation numbers remain stubborn like the U.S? The GBP/USD certainly needs to be watched in the aftermath of this CPI report.

Thursday, the 19th of October, China New Home Prices – the housing bubble within China is a thing of the past. Last month’s outcome produced another negative number and a poor report would not be a surprise this week. Negative housing values hurt the Chinese public which have largely quantified their personal savings via their real estate holdings.

Thursday, the 19th of October, U.S Unemployment Claims – the weekly report will give another small dose of evidence regarding the strength of the U.S economy for financial institutions to consider.

Friday, the 20th of October, U.K Retail Sales – the consumer spending report is expected to produce a decline of minus -0.3%. GBP/USD traders may use this report as another sphere of influence.

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Shivers for Friday the 13th of Oct

by with No Comment AMT MarketsAssetsFeatured Highlights

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Shivers for Friday the 13th of Oct

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10. Roseanne Roseannadanna: It just goes to show ya. It’s always something. If it’s not one thing, it’s another.

9: Book: Longitude: The True Story of a Lone Genius Who Solved the Greatest Scientific Problem of His Time by Dava Sobel.

8. World Cup Rugby: Ireland vs. New Zealand in a quarterfinal match on Saturday.

7. Crypto: Binance Coin slump continues as it edges towards 200.00 USD value.

6. Crude Oil: Price near 84.00 USD per barrel in a mixed week of trading.

5. Gold: Will stable price hold after increase via inflation data and stronger USD?

4. Indices: U.S stock markets declined yesterday, but not significantly in wake of inflation news.

3. USD: Burst of buying for USD took GBP, EUR and JPY and others back to lows.

2. CPI: Consumer Price Index rise yesterday was slight, but reinforced Fed policy.

1. U.S Treasuries: Bond yields a key barometer today and will affect broad markets.

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Inflation Data and Fed’s FOMC Meeting Minutes This Week

by with No Comment AMT MarketsCentral BanksFeatured Highlights

Inflation Data and Fed's FOMC Meeting Minutes This Week

Last week’s economic data ended with rather tantalizing headline jobs numbers as the U.S showed more hiring than expected, but while this grabbed media soundbites in many circles – the Average Hourly Earnings numbers came in below expectations. The broad Forex market proved dynamic with a stronger USD in many cases, but intriguingly equity markets in the States generated upwards momentum on Friday too. U.S Treasuries were mixed regarding their yields, and the 10-year bond while finishing up for the week was below its highs.

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WTI Crude Oil One Month Chart as of 9th of Oct. 2023

The coming week will likely continue to produce nervousness, but outlook will be helped via a couple of U.S inflation reports and the FOMC Meeting Minutes report. Crude Oil prices should be watched as news from the Middle East unfolds. Gold remains under pressure.

Cryptocurrency speculators should keep their eyes on Binance Coin as it battles important lows. Bitcoin has remained relatively stable, but BNB/USD is near crucial support that could signal another wave of pressure is developing within the Binance exchange.

Monday, the 9th of October, International Monetary Fund – week-long meetings get underway and investors who participate in global stock markets and bonds should pay attention to the chatter.

Tuesday, the 10th of October, Central Bank Officials speaking – ECB President Lagarde will be speaking at the IMF conference. Federal Reserve officials will be speaking at meetings in the U.S. While the chatter may cause some nervous reactions briefly in financial institutions, it is unlikely the central bankers will say anything that is surprising.

Wednesday, the 11th of October, U.S Producer Price Index – the broad and core reports should be watched. Last week’s lower Average Hourly Earnings numbers were slightly surprising, but the recent higher energy costs could factor into the PPI results. The broad report is anticipated to show a decline. If the Producer Price Index statistics come in weaker than expected this could help the USD lose some strength.

Wednesday, the 11th of October, U.S FOMC Meeting Minutes – the publication is expected to follow the rhetoric already voiced by the Fed at their last press conference. However, insights regarding dialogue could move the needle in Forex. The U.S central bank is widely expected to raise the Federal Funds Rate in November, but what comes beyond this anticipated move is still in question. Expect the key word in the FOMC report to be ‘inflation’.

Thursday, the 12th of October, U.K Gross Domestic Product – the growth numbers from Great Britain are expected to show a slight rise in GDP. If the gains match expectations or come in better it could help bolster the GBP/USD which has been struggling against the USD for the past three months.

Thursday, the 12th of October, U.S Consumer Price Index – these reports will be crucial and will impact Forex and equities immediately after their release. While the Core CPI number is expected to match last month’s outcome, the broad reports are anticipated to be weaker. If the inflation numbers are stronger than expected the USD could gain strength, if the results are weaker it could help build selling momentum in the USD.

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USD/CNY Six Month Chart as of 9th Oct. 2023

Friday, the 13th of October, China Consumer and Producer Price Index – the two releases will be watched carefully by investors. China’s economic data has been weak and financial institutions have become concerned by deflation. The USD/CNY may be impacted upon the publication of the reports.

Friday, the 13th of October, U.S Consumer Sentiment via the University of Michigan – following the CPI numbers from the U.S on Thursday, these numbers will show the attitude of U.S consumers and their spending habits. Financial institutions will monitor these numbers and correlate them to the U.S inflation reports seen earlier.

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Niblets for Friday 6th of October

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Niblets for Friday 6th of October

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10. World Cups: Big weekend ahead in Rugby and Cricket international competitions.

9. Book: Darkness at Noon by Arthur Koestler.

8. Travel Tip: The Western Cape of South Africa.

7. Inflation: Dramatic increases in costs of food globally causing nutrition concerns.

6. Jobs: U.S Non-Farm Employment Change data on the calendar.

5. Music: “In a Sentimental Mood” by Duke Ellington and John Coltrane.

4. Gold: Precious metal still languishing as USD remains strong amidst nervousness.

3. Salaries: U.S Average Hourly Earnings statistics results today will be a catalyst.

2. USD: Major currencies still weak as strength of USD causes duress.

1. U.S Indices: Equities behavioral sentiment appears fragile in stock markets.

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Nervous Outlooks and Short Term Fixes Creating Anxiousness

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

Nervous Outlooks and Short Term Fixes Creating Anxiousness

A U.S government shutdown has been avoided, but the resolution highlights that an important year of political games is getting fully underway in Washington. Short term fixes via congressional agreements do not hide the fact the U.S government continues to bleed money and is adding to its deficit as yields on U.S Treasuries remain high.

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Gold Five Day Chart as of 2nd October 2023

The price of gold has sank substantially in the past week, which shows the USD continues to be strong, and that speculative short-term games within the precious metal must always be kept in mind by day traders. Long term fundamental beliefs regarding the value of gold cannot stop momentary volatility.

GDP results from the U.S last week came in slightly below estimates, but the ability to still sustain growth also creates the suspicion the U.S economy remains stubbornly strong, which effectively puts the U.S Federal Reserve in a rather difficult place. Crude Oil prices have remained high, and this week’s coming jobs data will be important for short and mid-term market participants as they position themselves while nervous behavioral sentiment continues to be evident.

U.S stock markets are near three month lows and trading conditions choppy, this as yields on U.S Treasuries are elevated and create a tough road for speculators to navigate in the short-term.

Monday, 2nd of October, U.S ISM Manufacturing PMI – a reading below 50 is anticipated which would mean sentiment remains negative regarding the U.S economy, but Core Durable Goods Orders came in better than expected last week. Thus, the result of this manufacturing report could play into short and near-term USD trading and cause a ripple as financial houses anticipate the jobs numbers later this week.

Tuesday, 3rd of October, Reserve Bank of Australia – the RBA is expected to keep its Cash Rate in place. If the RBA cooperates with financial institutions and does not change its key borrowing rate , the RBA Rate Statement will come into focus. However, the AUD/USD is still within the shadows of U.S Federal Reserve like most other major currencies.

Wednesday, 4th of October, U.S ISM Services PMI – the outcome from the Services report is expected to fall below last month’s outcome. The slight miss in the GDP numbers last week was noteworthy, but the better than expected Core Durable Goods results will make this report of interest and provide a bit of impetus to the USD and U.S indices before Friday’s key jobs data – particularly if the Services reading is better than anticipated.

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GBP/USD Three Month Chart as of 2nd Oct. 2023

Thursday, 5th of October, U.K Construction PMI – while not considered a major publication by many analysts, the ordering by purchasing managers in Britain may prove relevant as an indicator regarding outlook. The Bank of England held their interest rates in place a couple of weeks ago and this was based on the belief the U.K economy is slowing. The Construction PMI report is expected to come in slightly below last month’s outcome which could set the table for slight choppiness in the GBP/USD which has continued to trend lower.

Friday, 6th of October, U.S Non-Farm Employment Change and Average Hourly Earnings – the combination of these two reports will impact USD trading before their publication and afterwards for several hours. Financial institutions will examine these statistics carefully. If there is a hint of weakness in the U.S jobs market and wage inflation is tame, this could make the USD weaker. However, if jobs hiring remains firm and there is a slight uptick in the costs employers are having to pay workers, the USD could get stronger.