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Market Trading Risks: Speculative, Anxious Impatient Results

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

Market Trading Risks: Speculative, Anxious Impatient Results

Monday’s trading provided a solid oversight for day traders to observe market conditions in commodities, Forex and equities. Financial institutions appear to be leaning towards a belief the U.S Federal Reserve will have to become more dovish, but financial institutions and other large players are worried about shadows being caused by inflation concerns and timeframes which are likely sparking nervous wagers.

Via the commodities, results saw Gold come down from highs on Friday which approached the 2,380.00 USD perch, and drop to lows around 2333.00 yesterday. The precious metal remains within sight of record values, this as questions persist about USD direction, and speculative forces bet. WTI Crude Oil meanwhile climbed from a selloff late Friday and into yesterday’s opening while challenging the 77.75 USD vicinity, and as of early Tuesday is now over the 79.00 mark again.

Also within the volatile world of commodities it needs to be mentioned that Cocoa which regained a portion of its higher price values last week and finished Friday above 9,000.0 USD per metric ton, fell swiftly in yesterday’s trading session and is now traversing 7,357.0 USD. Cocoa has enjoyed a spectacularly wide ride of maneuvering via market forces. The commodity is still valued within loftier heights when compared to its historical averages, and demonstrates the speed and danger (and opportunity) of price velocity.

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Cocoa Three Month Chart on the 14th of May 2024

Further signs of risk appetite and fragile notions are being exhibited via U.S equity indices, which produced sideways price action yesterday as important economic data awaits and will certainly churn short-term and mid-term perspectives. The S&P 500 is again within sight of record levels, while investors of it and the Dow Jones 30 and Nasdaq 100 all brace for this week’s data which will affect their risk outlooks.

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S&P 500 Index Three Month Chart on the 14th of May 2024

Monday, 13th of May, New Zealand Inflation Expectations – yesterday’s quarterly result came in slightly below the previous report. The decrease of inflation concerns likely helped the NZD/USD spark Monday’s climb above 0.60300 briefly. This morning’s early trading is seeing sideways action as U.S inflation reports are anticipated and the currency pair ebbs around 0.60180.

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GBP/USD Three Month Chart on the 14th of May 2024

Tuesday, 14th of May, U.K Average Earnings Index, a gain of 5.7% has just been posted. This result will make GBP/USD traders nervous because it highlights that inflation remains sticky in Britain. While last week’s GDP numbers from the U.K showed an improvement, the growth certainly was not spectacular. The range of the GBP/USD remains choppy and bullish day traders targeting higher ratios on the belief the currency pair remains in oversold territory need to consider their timeframes and bias. While the 1.26000 may look like a logical target, it will take weaker U.S inflation and USD centric price action to get there.

Tuesday, 14th of May, U.S Core Producer Price Index – last month’s core report matched expectations. However, the PPI numbers occasionally spell trouble in Forex. Higher inflation results from the U.S would certainly kickstart volatility for all major currency pairs today.

Wednesday, 15th of May, U.S Consumer Price Index – this reading could prove to be the prime mover for financial assets this week because of its potential affect on behavioral sentiment. The Federal Reserve watches this number because of the influence it has on the American public. Forex will react to this report and if it is weaker than anticipated this would create weaker USD centric price action. The U.S will also report Retail Sales and the Empire State Manufacturing Index statistics on Wednesday.

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USD/JPY Three Month Chart on the 14th of May 2024

Thursday, 16th of May, Japan Preliminary Gross Domestic Product – last month’s report came in with a gain of 0.1%. This GDP data carries an expectation of minus -0.4%. Traders who like fundamentals should pay attention to revisions within the statistical pages. The Bank of Japan remains in a curious and suspicious predicament. After two interventions, the USD/JPY has climbed incrementally once again. The BoJ is certainly keeping their eyes on the USD/JPY and know financial institutions are still wagering against the Japanese Yen.

Day traders should be extremely cautious with the USD/JPY because the BoJ has the ability to strike with a massive blow when not expected. Risk management is essential for speculators wagering on this currency pair. Evidence of speculative interest in the USD/JPY correlates to the notion that while the USD has been weaker against many major currencies recently, the Japanese Yen remains within a weaker and elevated price range.

Friday, 17th of May, China Industrial Production and Retail Sales – economic dark clouds continue to cascade on Asia’s largest economy. The industrial numbers will be watched by investors certainly, but the overall health of Chinese consumers will likely be the focal point. The USD/CNY remains within bullish terrain, but the Shanghai Stock Exchange’s SSE Index has done well since its lows in the first week of February.
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Forex: Shifting Winds and Potential Optimism for Speculators

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

Forex: Shifting Winds and Potential Optimism for Speculators

The BoJ intervened in Forex and propelled two fast selloffs of the USD/JPY last week. The actions by the Bank of Japan did not come as a surprise as the central bank seeks to maintain a dovish interest rate policy, a relatively weak Japanese Yen – but also a philosophy of not letting the JPY to suffer too much. Speculators and financial institutions got caught up in the price action which ensued as a clash developed between large traders and the BoJ as equilibrium was sought.

The BoJ clearly wants to keep the USD/JPY within the weaker realms of its long-term values to spur on the Japanese export sector with solid business results. However, domestically the Japanese government doesn’t want inflation within Japan to inflict too much pain for its citizens. BoJ interventions were carried out twice last week, once during a holiday in Japan, and the second when most global financial institutions were shuttered. At the time of this writing the USD/JPY is trading near the 153.720 mark.

Day traders always need to understand just how small they are within the larger speculative world. They need to judge economic intelligence and forecasts to get an understanding where behavioral sentiment could affect tides.

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USD/JPY One Month Chart on 6th of May 2024

In the U.S, inflation and growth data caused investors to react nervously a week and a a half ago, additionally more anxious moments were fueled by the Federal Reserve’s FOMC Statement this past Wednesday when the Fed said it was uncertain about the timetable that inflation would return to their stated goal of two percent. Forex trading has been volatile the entire calendar year of 2024 for speculators.

Nearly ten days ago while inflation continued to prove it was stubborn via the U.S GDP Price Index on the 25th of April, Advance GDP data was much weaker than expected showing that economic growth was slowing. And last Friday’s Non-Farm Employment results were not only weaker regarding hiring, but also showed a slight drop in Average Hourly Earnings. This might have been enough to begin causing a shift in financial institution outlooks. This week of trading will prove interesting regarding risk appetite versus risk averse sentiment, particularly if large players believe economic data is finally catching up to the Fed’s rhetoric.

U.S equity indices which started last week with selling and battled lower depths in the middle of the week, began to see buying develop on Thursday, and finished Friday’s trading within their highs via weekly technical charts. While it is easy to report the past, it is the future speculators want to know. The ability of the U.S jobs numbers to produce results which were seen in a favorable light regarding the Fed’s ability to potentially cut the Federal Funds Rate certainly was an optimistic sign for financial institutions. If inflation can remain under control it would help the global economic picture. On that note, WTI Crude Oil is trading below 80.00 USD and should be monitored.

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S&P 500 Index Three Month Chart on 6th of May 2024.

Monday, 6th of May, European Union Final Services PMI – Italy, France and Germany among other will present Purchasing Managers Index data. The broad numbers are mostly expected to replicate the previous month’s outcomes. Traders should note the U.K is observing a banking holiday today, which means lighter than normal Forex volumes will be seen.

Tuesday, 7th of May, Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Statement – the central bank is not expected to change its interest rate. The AUD/USD has provided some upwards momentum the past week. The RBA is not expected to step out of line regarding global central bank policies. Expect talk about an optimistically cautious outlook by the RBA as they preach patience regarding an interest rate cut.

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AUD/USD One Month Chart on 6th of May 2024

Wednesday, 8th of May, Bond Sales from Japan, the U.K and the U.S – while many European nations observe a holiday, Japan, Great Britain and the U.S will sell government debt. U.S Treasury yields should be watched and equity indices should have an eye kept on them. If behavioral sentiment remains optimistic as this day comes to a close it could set the table for more bullishness, particularly if the USD remains relatively tame or weaker.

Thursday, 9th of May, Bank of England Monetary Policy Summary – the BoE is likely to mirror other central banks and keep its interest rate policy in place. No changes are expected to the Official Bank Rate. However, it would not be surprising to hear the BoE try to pose upbeat expectations, and if this occurs perhaps the GBP/USD will continue to find some momentum upwards.

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GBP/USD One Month Chart on 6th of May 2024

Thursday, 9th of May, U.S Weekly Unemployment Claims – investors will keep their eyes on the jobs report. If the numbers come in around expectations this would allow risk appetite to remain strong in the near-term.

Friday, 10th of May, U.K Gross Domestic Product – an expected gain of 0.1% is forecast. GBP/USD traders who have bullish sentiment will be looking for the number to match expectations or beat the anticipated result. If the number is weaker, this could cause a reversal lower in the GBP/USD and an attempt to push back against gains made in the currency pair recently.

Friday, 10th of May, U.S Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations via the University of Michigan – these readings will be watched by investors to see if consumers continue to show decreasing confidence in the U.S economy. While it sounds counter intuitive to want eroding sentiment regarding the ability to spend money, this would create more ammunition for the Federal Reserve to consider an interest rate cut. The Inflation Expectations could be the catalyst for traders going into the weekend regarding the USD.

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Observations for 3rd of May 2024

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Observations for 3rd of May 2024

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10. Formula One: The Miami Grand Prix race will be held on Sunday. Whispers have been heard that Red Bull driver Max Verstappen has been approached by Mercedes bidding an annual contract over 150 million USD, but that he has not accepted the offer. However, Adrian Newey, engineer and CTO of Red Bull Racing, has confirmed he is leaving the team after 19 years of leadership. F1 certainly needs more competitive racing, a shake up at Red Bull could deliver this for the sport.

9. De-movements: Desire for decolonization, decarbonization, depopulation, turned into delusion and dehydration for Columbia University protestors and the need for a glass of water per the request of a student leader. Perhaps de-escalation is next.

8. Geopolitics: The nation of Georgia is dealing with demonstrations as some citizens show disdain regarding feared political influence from Russia. Georgia has an approximate population of 3.7 million. The East European and West Asian country has seen civil disobedience on the streets of Tbilisi increase this week.

7. Lower Values: Cocoa is near 7,658.00 USD per metric ton as of this morning, on the 19th of April it traded above 12,000.00 briefly. BTC/USD is around 59,250 after having faced headwinds this week.

6. Gold: The precious metal has sold off this week and is hovering near 2,300.00 per ounce as concerns build about USD outlook remaining strong over the mid-term. A low of nearly 2,282.00 was seen on Wednesday. Today’s publication of U.S economic data will push the price of Gold around.

5. Mixed Trading: Equity indices have produced uneven results this week as investors try to find equilibrium. Optimism almost always is the eventual emotion long-term institutional market participants lean towards. The S&P 500, Dow 30, and Nasdaq Composite all gained yesterday, but remain below highs from earlier in the week. Behavioral sentiment appears fragile and many Fed observers are disgruntled.

4. Uncertainty: The Federal Reserve has admitted it is unsure about future economic progress this calendar year. When questioned about the potential of stagflation Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said he see no signs of this – while forgetting to add that politically saying such a thing would likely cost him his job. And lets remember, the Fed claimed they thought inflation was transitory in July of 2021.

3. Bank of Japan: A battle is underway with the USD/JPY as the BoJ has staged two interventions this week. Intent on trying to create economic growth via stronger exports, while allowing import inflation to be seen, the BoJ interest rate policy remains dovish. The USD/JPY is near 153.230 now, but it is unlikely to go into the weekend with this price. An apex on the 29th of April approached the 159.610 ratio. Financial institutions and Japanese Yen traders must remain alert.

2. High Anxiety: Day traders in Forex, equity indices and commodities have certainly seen heightened volatility and the choppiness is going to persist. Retail brokers will welcome speculators with open arms and point to opportunities, but traders need to understand the ‘casino’ often is making money via losses incurred because of leveraged wagers which turn into losing bets when price velocity hits.

1. Jobs Data: Yet another opportunity for inflation to be seen today via the Average Hourly Earnings numbers. A cautionary road sign was seen this Tuesday when the U.S Employment Cost Index came in with a stronger than anticipated quarterly gain of 1.2%. The USD will remain a lynchpin in many financial assets, and Treasury yields should be watched after the employment statistics have been printed.

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BoJ and Fed are today’s Forex Bogeymen, and Job Numbers Lurk

by with No Comment Behavioral SentimentCentral BanksFeatured Highlights

BoJ and Fed are today's Forex Bogeymen, and Job Numbers Lurk

While the Showa holiday is being observed in Japan, the BoJ has apparently reacted with an intervention after seeing the USD/JPY race to new highs in the wake of the central bank’s decision to hold its Policy Rate at 0.10% on Friday. If in fact the Bank of Japan has acted when most Japanese financial institutions are celebrating a long holiday weekend, the reaction to the intervention will be noteworthy when Japanese currency traders return to their desks tomorrow. The question obviously becomes whether large players in the JPY will continue to wager against the Bank of Japan’s current monetary policy or if the apparent intervention will make them cautious.

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USD/JPY One Day Chart as of 29th April 2024

U.S data this past Thursday turned in rather clumsy statistics starting with the Advance Gross Domestic Product growth results which showed the American economy is slowing. However, the GDP Price Index came in slightly higher than anticipated. This caused some tremors in Forex. Friday was followed by additionally troublesome readings when the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment outcome was weaker than expected, but the U of M Inflation Expectations gauge was higher than the previous month’s report.

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USD Cash Index Five Day Chart as of 29th April 2024

The USD began to show signs of weakness in many major currency pairs last week. Perhaps the expectation that the worst of Federal Reserve outlook has now been absorbed is playing into the Forex results. However, the past four months of trading have produced a continuous choppy wagering landscape for speculators and clarity still does not exist.

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Gold One Month Chart as of 29th April 2024

Suspicion of the Bank of Japan’s intervention this morning and the creeping shadow from the U.S Federal Reserve which is scheduled to deliver their FOMC Statement this Wednesday have created trading bogeymen in many financial assets. The strains in the major equity indices, Treasuries and Forex are prime examples. While day traders try to find fair market value technically and financial institutions seek equilibrium, most observers likely have nervous behavioral sentiment as they consider mid-term prospects. The past month of speculative trading in Gold has produced record highs, but ran into resistance the past week as questions arise about USD inverse correlations not being technically efficient recently.

Monday, 29th April, Germany – Consumer Price Index – the inflation results from Germany should be given attention. The number will certainly affect sentiment surrounding the ECB and the EUR/USD, however the report should not cause an earthquake.

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USD/CNY One Month Chart as of 29th April 2024

Tuesday, 30th April, China Manufacturing PMI – the nation has been making claims via government officials the economy is showing signs of a rebound. Yet, disturbing consumer data continues to be seen. The manufacturing statistics from China though will also reflect demand in what is generally accepted as a recessionary period for many global spheres. Traders of the USD/CNY should pay attention to the outcome, the currency pair has incrementally climbed and there are rampant whispers about China undertaking a policy to weaken the Chinese Yuan to spur economic growth.

Wednesday, 1st May, U.S Federal Reserve Funds Rate and FOMC Statement – the Fed will not change its interest rate this week. What will be noteworthy is how Fed Chairman Powell presents this month’s FOMC Statement rhetorically as he is asked questions during his Press Conference. We are certain to hear words mentioned like ‘lagging data and positive signs regarding the potential of weakening inflation’. The question financial institutions want to know is how long will they have to wait for a change to the Federal Funds Rate. The Fed is likely to try sounding cautiously optimistic, but will it be believed? Forex will react to the Fed’s policy meeting pronouncements, but no major surprises should be expected. Some observers may find interesting evidence regarding the future for Fed’s policy via the price of WTI Crude Oil which is hovering near 83.00 USD per barrel as of this writing, because stable energy prices are a key factor regarding inflation.

Thursday, 2nd May, U.S Weekly Unemployment Claims – the jobs data which will start to be delivered late this week will get attention. Forex traders however will be swimming within the riptides already created by the Federal Reserve’s policy.

Friday, 3rd May, U.S Non-Farm Employment Change Numbers and Average Hourly Earnings – these reports will cause a reaction. What financial institutions will be on the hunt for is weaker than anticipated hiring. The inflation numbers from the wages report will be a factor too. The USD traded with a slight decline in Forex last week, those who believe the greenback has been too strong and are inclined to remain sellers should pay attention to the U.S jobs numbers. If the headline hiring number is stronger than anticipated, analysts will rush to the back pages of the statistics to see if part-time hiring is still outpacing full-time employment.

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Picks for the 26th of April 2024

by with No Comment Behavioral SentimentCentral BanksEquities

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Picks for the 26th of April 2024

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10. Salk Institute: Work known as the Harnessing Plants Initiative is focused on optimizing the ability of plants to help combat climate change, sometimes via root systems in order to help reduce carbon dioxide. Problematically when plants die they do release carbon dioxide too. One key to the HPI project maybe altering the affects of Suberin. The Salk Institute received 50 million USD last year from the Hess Corporation to fight climate change.

9. Anticipation: Chicago is celebrating today after landing quarterback Caleb Williams and wide receiver Rome Odunze as hoped. However, as the August 2024 Democratic National Convention approaches, trepidation for the potential of nasty demonstrations is building.

8. Quantum Investing: Oak Ridge National Laboratory has announced a successful test using the H1-1 computer via Quantinuum to study the spread of disease via quantum mathematical models. Honeywell International Inc. owns a large stake in Quantinuum which is a stand alone company valued at approximately 5 billion USD.

7. Speculative: Gold is near 2348.00, the price is below values seen last week, but remains high via some perspectives as the USD creates havoc.

6. Forex: Whipsaw volatility has been seen in foreign exchange as financial institutions fight to get a proper gauge on their mid-term outlooks. Equilibrium will continue to be fought over today.

5. Fixed Income: U.S Treasury yields are battling within higher ground as investors look for guaranteed returns as behavioral sentiment remains fragile. And there is a likelihood the next four days of trading will continue to produce a whirlwind.

4. Equities: Major U.S indices continue to grapple with headwinds caused by a murky economic outlook. Retail traders speculating via CFD’s should remain careful. Patience is a key for the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Dow 30. Trying to ‘time’ the indices for short-term wagers is dangerous because technical trends are vulnerable.

3. Data: U.S Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index statistics will be released today, inflation via the GDP Price Index came in higher than expected yesterday. Forex will react to the PCE results which is anticipated to have a gain of 0.3%. Financial institutions do not need another scare today. The Revised University of Michigan Inflation Expectations reading should also be given attention which will be published afterwards.

2. BoJ: The Bank of Japan is clearly playing a game of truth or dare with Forex. Having held interest rates at merely 0.10% earlier today, the USD/JPY climbed comfortably above 156.000 and is presently near the 156.540. The BoJ will remain in the news as the USD/JPY trades around a 34 year high. As financial institutions clamor for a higher interest rate, the BoJ apparently is more concerned with creating dynamic export demand and growing Japan’s economy, believing it can keep inflation under control. Speculators need to be on alert for an intervention from the Bank of Japan, but cannot count on one either.

1. Analysis Paralysis: The Federal Reserve was served an intriguing dose of results via the lower than expected growth numbers from the Gross Domestic Product yesterday, while digesting a higher GDP Price Index. Jerome Powell has stressed caution and patience. However, yesterday’s stubborn inflation numbers with waning growth creates the prospect for stagflation. This is an important political year because of the upcoming U.S elections in November. Next Wednesday the Fed’s FOMC Meeting pronouncements will be made. There will not be a change to the Federal Funds Rate on the 1st of May. It is the FOMC Statement’s vocabulary which will get attention. Today’s inflation reports will play a role in next week’s Fed meeting. Day traders may want to tune out political noise from pundits today which will certainly be sounded. The inflation numbers globally are tricky, and have created overthinking by investors and central banks which remain mostly reactive.

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Impact: Powell’s White Flag, Inflation Data, and the BoJ

by with No Comment AMT MarketsAssetsFeatured Highlights

Impact: Powell's White Flag, Inflation Data, and the BoJ

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s waving of the ‘white flag’ last Tuesday, when he admitted that inflation was producing stronger than anticipated data had been essentially wagered on since the second week of March by financial institutions. Powell’s speech acknowledging the Fed will find it difficult to cut the Federal Funds Rate in the mid-term (and probably at best not until late this summer) simply verified Forex positions which had already been taken by large players who could afford to make mid-term wagers.

The USD Index has returned to early November 2023 values, and appears able to challenge late September and October prices if inflation data this week causes more volatility, which should put traders of major currencies like the GBP, EUR, JPY and others on full alert. After the USD spiked higher from the 10th to the 12th of April, Forex speculators have seen dynamic action incrementally flirting with stronger USD results the past week and a half.

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USD Cash Index Six Month Chart as of 21st April 2024

Nervous trading continues to be seen in U.S equity indices. The Dow 30 and the Nasdaq 100 are fighting near ratios they touched in the last week of January. And the S&P 500 is traversing ground from the first week of February.

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S&P 500 Three Month Chart as of 21st April 2024

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Gold Six Month Chart as of 21st April 2024

Gold remains speculatively high as its hovers near 2,400.00 USD per ounce. The price of the precious metal has not given back its gains made since the start of March and this is intriguing because of the ‘known’ USD inverse correlation, which had proven to work well with the precious metal over the past couple of years but has been stopped in its tracks for the moment. Technically Gold may look overbought, but geopolitical concerns and the prospect that some central banks may be strong buyers could be fueling the rather incremental gains. Retail traders of Gold need to be careful because price action is likely to produce more surprises.

Forex has been turbulent the past handful of months as shifting behavioral sentiment has created choppy conditions. This coming week contains large fundamental risk events via data releases traders should monitor. USD/JPY speculators will also have to contend with the Bank of Japan.

Monday, 22nd of April, China Loan Prime Rates – borrowing costs are anticipated to remain at the current benchmarks. China produced slightly better Gross Domestic Product results last week, but Industrial Production numbers were weaker. Consumers in China remain burdened by decreasing home values and concerns about the economy.

Tuesday, 23rd of April, European Union and U.K Manufacturing and Services PMI – E.U results via the PMI readings are expected to show slight improvements. However the readings from the United Kingdom are anticipated to come in flat. The EUR/USD and GBP/USD will be affected by the results, but the currency pairs will likely remain focused on U.S data later in the day.

Tuesday, 23rd of April, U.S Purchasing Managers Index – the Manufacturing and Services sectors are expected to produce slightly better readings than the previous month. These results will be interesting taking into consideration the Empire State Manufacturing Index numbers last week were bad. The PMI statistics will provide some impetus to the broad Forex market.

Wednesday, 24th of April, Australia Consumer Price Index – inflation data is anticipated to be higher than the previous month’s results. While stronger inflation is not something that will make consumers happy in Australia, stubborn price results may keep the AUD/USD slightly steadier. The currency pair is traversing values last seen in the second week of November 2023 as of this writing.

Thursday, 25th of April, U.S Advance Gross Domestic Product and Price Index – these numbers are certain to have an impact on all financial assets. A decline in growth is anticipated in the U.S compared to the previous month’s result, but the Price Index is expected to show an increase. Jerome Powell having come out last week and said inflation is causing uncertainty within the Federal Reserve, may have a bit of inside knowledge regarding this GDP inflation number and ‘tipped his hand’. If this inflation gauge is higher than anticipated it could pour fuel onto the already volatile USD. All Forex traders need to pay attention to these results and be prepared with solid risk management.

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USD/JPY One Year Chart as of 21st April 2024

Friday, 26th of April, Bank of Japan – in what has already proven to be a couple of weeks filled with drama for the USD/JPY, the BoJ will step into the limelight. During their last central bank meeting the Bank of Japan increased the Policy Rate to 0.10%. It was the first time the BoJ hiked interest rates in 17 years. The USD/JPY is trading at values last seen in June of 1990. The Nikkei 225 has come off of recent record heights, but the famed Japanese stock index is also trading within territory seen in January of 1990. Business activity via the Core Machine Orders and the Tertiary Industry data last week were stronger than anticipated.

The Bank of Japan may want to maintain a weaker USD/JPY equilibrium to continue fostering domestic growth. However, many financial analysts have been calling on the BoJ to become more hawkish regarding monetary policy. The interest rate decision is certain to cause immediate volatility before and after the Policy Rate is made public. USD/JPY traders need to be prepared for fireworks. A slight raise of the interest rate seems to be needed, but after the March hike the BoJ may prove conservative again. The 34 year lows now being seen in the Japanese Yen are astonishing.

Friday, 26th of April, U.S Core PCE Price Index, and Inflation Expectations – the data from the government, and the reading from the University of Michigan will close the curtain on a big week of economic statistics for all traders. The USD will react to these outcomes. It should be noted the previous Inflation Expectations data from the University of Michigan caused a storm in Forex when it came with 3.1% gain.

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Retail Traders Caught Out by Shifting Sentiment as Data Hits

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

Retail Traders Caught Out by Shifting Sentiment as Data Hits

Forex speculators who relied heavily on technical data solely last week were likely punched in the gut by the rather surprising numbers from the Consumer Price Index results in the U.S last Wednesday, particularly if they were on the wrong side of trading trajectories. U.S inflation has shifted sentiment within many large investors with a rather seismic move regarding mid-term outlooks. Financial institutions which have been counting on cuts to the Federal Funds Rate have had to take a step backwards.

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EUR/USD Five Day Chart as of 15th April 2024

The dynamic momentum in Forex hit major currency pairs in the middle of last week and washed away support and resistance levels within a blink of the eye. Behavioral sentiment turned U.S Treasuries yields upwards and the major equity indices also experienced nervousness. Volatility also continued in Gold as new record values were produced, and then were followed by a rather strong reversal lower which likely hurt over-leveraged day traders.

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Gold Five Day Chart as of 15th April 2024

Not only were U.S inflation numbers important last week, but geopolitical noise became heightened. Perhaps the climb in Gold before the weekend was helped by the anticipated conflict between Iran and Israel which did play out. The price of the precious metal and WTI Crude Oil have been more tranquil early today, which may be a signal for the moment that large market players are calm.

Monday, 15th of April, U.S Core Retail Sales – after last week’s larger than expected increase in the CPI results, the spending report today will get attention from financial institutions. Last Friday’s Preliminary Price Expectations reading from the University of Michigan did not allow investors to rest when it came in with a 3.1% elevated mark. If today’s Retail statistics are above expectations, this could make Forex roil again.

Tuesday, 16th of April, China Industrial Production and Gross Domestic Product – these economic reports will be watched closely by international investors. While there have been murmurs that China’s economy is improving, and media reports that the Biden administration is trying to engage diplomatically, the industrial and GDP results are expected to be weaker than the previous month’s outcomes. China will also release Retail Sales figures.

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GBP/USD Five Day Chart as of 15th April 2024

Tuesday, 16th of April, U.K Claimant Count Change – last Friday’s GDP report from Britain did not produce any significant surprises. The U.K economy continues to struggle, but like most spheres inflation remains a problem. The GBP/USD sunk violently last week, while many speculators may believe it is currently oversold they may want to remain cautious.

Because of the U.S Federal Reserve’s own perilous fight against inflation, there are some who believe the Bank of England may need to cut interest rates before the U.S central bank. However, given the lack of proactive characteristics from the BoE and ECB which have been on full display as they dance in step with the Federal Reserve, this makes a BoE cut before the Fed a skeptical notion for the time being. The GBP/USD will stay largely USD centric even in the wake of this U.K employment report.

Tuesday, 16th of April, U.S FOMC Members – a parade of Federal Reserve voting policymakers will speak at various events, this includes Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. There will likely be little in the way of surprises from the Fed members as they likely all stick to ‘party’ lines and emphasize a cautious outlook.

Wednesday, 17th of April, U.K Consumer Price Index – the inflation report could prove to be catalyst for the GBP/USD. If the CPI number does come in weaker than expected it could spur on behavioral sentiment shifts regarding the potential for changes to BoE policy. Because the GBP/USD was so volatile the past week, day traders should be prepared for rather combustible price action from the currency pair which may look counter-intuitive. Smaller speculators should remember that ‘smart money’ from larger players may be positioned for the results of the U.K CPI data already.

Thursday, 18th of April, U.S Weekly Unemployment Claims – although not the most significant of reports usually, financial institutions are ‘waiting’ on a change of statistical direction via labor market evidence. If jobs numbers start to come in weaker than anticipated – meaning there are higher jobless claims – then the USD could react with some selling.

Friday, 19th of April, U.K Retail Sales – having endured a rather wild trading cycle, Great Britain will deliver one more important economic report to end this week. The GBP/USD will react to the consumer spending results.

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Wonders for the 12th of April 2024

by with No Comment AMT MarketsArtificial IntelligenceFeatured Highlights

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Wonders for the 12th of April 2024

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10. Free Press: Brazil and the Lula de Silva government are cracking down on dissent in social media. ‘X’ – formerly Twitter – led by Elon Musk is fighting back and refusing to cooperate as Brazilian ‘leadership’ attempts to intimidate the ‘loyal opposition’ in the legislature.

9. GROOT: Nvidia is working on ‘humanoid’ robotics. Project GROOT was presented by Jensen Huang at the GTC Conference. The synergy between machine learning, semiconductors and robotics is an evolution taking place before our eyes. Tesla is involved in similar research as it works on Optimus.

8. Hot Chocolate: Speculation in Cocoa has brought the commodity above 10,400.00 USD per metric ton as of this writing. Questions about gravity and hypersonic speculative values are logical at this juncture.

7. Seclusion: Do humans still need each other? People are relying on their mobile devices for social interactions. Robotics with AI capabilities will make our existence potentially more lonely. Open source software DOBB-E will be part of this future as household chores are taken care of by ‘machines’.

6. Iran: Those with holiday excursion plans which include Teheran this weekend may need to check on ticket availability due to the possibility of flight cancellations.

5. Fed Liberty: President Joe Biden this week spoke about an interest rate cut coming from the Federal Reserve this year, yet Consumer Price Index statistics are demonstrating escalating expenses. Current U.S government leaders may want to spend less on ‘vote buying’ via student loan forgiveness and think about conservative fiscal practices. Why should Americans who choose not to attend universities pay for those who did via higher taxes? Are Fed and Treasury officials still independent?

4. Risk Averse: Gold is within sight of 2,400.00 USD this morning. In the meantime U.S bond yields have inverted completely except for the 30-Year issue. Financial institutions are showing nervous behavioral sentiment.

3. USD Centric: Forex has seen reactive trading this week as financial institutions begin to conclude the U.S Federal Reserve’s monetary policy ‘over time’ will remain disturbingly difficult and full of doublespeak.

2. Caution: Mixed results are flourishing in the major U.S stock indices as the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 touch late March values, and the Dow Jones 30 has returned to February levels. Higher than anticipated interest rates are causing turbulence.

1. Energy Illusions: As the prices of food, transportation and housing escalates isn’t it time governments start to question their ‘green’ policies which are making the costs of energy production more expensive? We all want a clean planet, but logical strategies must be applied to create efficient use of resources.

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Forex: Behind the Curtain as Speculative Deja Vu Strikes

by with No Comment AMT MarketsCentral BanksFeatured Highlights

Forex: Behind the Curtain as Speculative Deja Vu Strikes

Friday jobs reports came in stronger than anticipated on the surface, and this led to a roller coaster like ride for Forex traders as results were acted upon by financial institutions. However, a look behind the data shows ‘positive’ results were spurred on by part-time hiring and government influences leading to a notion that jobs numbers were not exactly a ray of sunshine regarding U.S economic health. The suspicious results cause a desire to look for ulterior motives, and to wonder if election year politics are playing a role in the U.S employment picture.

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GBP/USD Six Month Chart as of 9th April 2024

The GBP/USD and EUR/USD are rather insightful for technical and fundamental traders. The currency pairs are languishing as of today’s values near pricing that was seen in the second week of December. Since the ‘announcement’ from the U.S Federal Reserve on the 13th of December that a change in monetary policy would begin to occur in 2024, in actuality nothing has really happened, except government ‘speak’ trying to sound as if everything is understood and in control, while it is clearly not.

Economic data from the U.S and Europe has continued to be soiled by mixed results, and retail speculators looking for a trend to emerge have had to deal with choppy conditions. Financial institutions remain unclear about interest rate outlooks. The Fed while trying to ‘sound’ dovish rhetoric remains locked within a Google engine keyword mantra as they mutter the phrase ‘over time’ when trying to convince people that interest rates will ‘eventually’ be cut.

Last week leading up to the Non-Farm Employment Change numbers, many FOMC members were offering cautious tones about the Federal Funds Rate and warning it should not be changed yet. The implication of the Fed’s verbiage could lead some to suspect they have all practiced statements handed to them by their overlords who are concerned this is an election year and jobs are in jeopardy.

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EUR/USD Six Month Chart as of 9th April 2024

Which leads us back to Forex and all financial assets, as investors try to swim waters which have left fundamental perspectives grasping at data which is not easy to decipher. U.S government policy is practicing fiscal spending that is causing massive debts, and perhaps influencing hiring data which may be more akin to putting lipstick on a pig. Many U.S voters seemingly lean towards electing officials who promise to hand out the biggest ‘social rewards’, while ignoring there will be a price to be paid down the road.

The Federal Reserve in the meantime tries to sound optimistic about inflation eroding, but concerns due to U.S government debt being accrued, and global geopolitical affairs combined with energy policy which is making it more expensive to maintain cheap transportation, efficient agriculture and manufacturing, shadow the Fed’s hopes. WTI Crude Oil remains over 86.00 USD per barrel. Gold is trading at record high values and above 2300.00 USD. Does anyone see the dangerous connections? Equity indices should be watched as a barometer this week.

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USD/JPY Six Month Chart as of 9th April 2024

Monday, 8th of April, Japan Average Cash Earnings and Economic Watchers Sentiment – yesterday’s reports matched expectations regarding wages, but workers surveyed noted their concerns about incremental inflation which is being seen in Japan. The USD/JPY is challenging November higher values and the Bank of Japan has been widely criticized for not raising interest rates more aggressively. However, it is possible the BoJ wants the Japanese Yen to remain within its weaker price range to spark a stronger Japanese economy via exports.

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AUD/USD Six Month Chart as of 9th April 2024

Tuesday, 9th of April, Australia Westpac Consumer Sentiment – the results via the consumer reading came in negative. The AUD/USD like the GBP/USD and EUR/USD is traversing values tested in the second week of December 2023, leading to the feeling of deja vu.

Wednesday, 10th of April, U.S Consumer Price Index – you have heard this before, the inflation reports from the States are going to rattle the financial markets including Forex. The USD is certain to react. Data from the U.S has produced surprises aplenty in the past few months. The Consumer Price Index is important and day traders certainly need to pay attention.

Thursday, 11th of April, European Central Bank – the ECB is not expected to change its Main Refinancing Rate, but many analysts believe they should cut borrowing costs. However, the ECB will likely remain within the camp of choosing to ‘wait and see’. The ECB Press Conference with Christine Legarde has widely become regarded as an opportunity for political speech as much as an economic dialogue. Recent data from the European Union suggests the worst of the recessionary cycle is gone, but German Trade Balance numbers released on Monday were negative, highlighting hurdles remain. Inflation is a worry, and a cut to the interest rate might be able to help spur on economic activity while counting on lagging data to prove proactive policy should be implemented. But this likely is not going to happen and the EUR/USD will remain problematic.

Thursday, 11th of April, U.S Producer Price Index – these slew of reports should be watched carefully. If the data is stronger than expected it is likely a part of the residue caused by higher energy costs that have affected logistics and created more expensive raw materials which are needed to produce goods. It was the higher PPI reports last month that caused dramatic tidal shifts in Forex, speculators should brace for the potential of additional mayhem.

Friday, 12th of April, U.K Gross Domestic Product – last month’s GDP numbers from Great Britain came in slightly higher than expected with a 0.2% gain, this report is anticipating growth of only 0.1%. Traders should take a deeper look at the statistics upon publication and check for revisions to past months. The U.K economy has been struggling, the ‘growth’ results will affect the GBP/USD before going into the weekend.

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USD and the Fed: Parade of Jobs Data Ready to Make Noise

by with No Comment AMT MarketsEconomic CalendarFeatured Highlights

USD and the Fed: Parade of Jobs Data Ready to Make Noise

U.S data last week created landmines for Forex speculators and the Federal Reserve. Global financial markets return to full action today following the long holiday weekend. Growth and inflation numbers from the States last week provided more unsettling results for financial institutions. While Forex has proven difficult for many traders, the major equity indexes are flirting with highs but also running into some intermittent headwinds.

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US Dollar Index Six Month Chart as of 2nd April 204

In December of 2023 the Fed was interpreted as having confirmed it would be able to cut the Federal Funds Rate during the 2024 calendar year rather consistently. Dovish policy had been anticipated by financial institutions which began to sell the USD aggressively in November. But by the end of the Christmas week the USD had essentially hit lows in many major currency pairs, and as January started reversals intensified.

The last three months of trading has produced choppy conditions in Forex, but one thing is clear – financial institutions no longer believe the Federal Reserve will be able to aggressively cut the Federal Funds Rate. The Fed has now begun to show signs that it is nervous regarding U.S economic data, this as growth via GDP numbers has remained firm, inflation sticky, and consumers resilient. Clouds shadow Forex and day traders have been hampered by a lack of solid trends.

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Gold Six Month Chart as of 2nd April 2024

Gold is trading near record price levels. The fact that the precious metal is touching all-time values as the USD has been strong has flustered some speculators. But traders need to remember Gold is affected by large players, including nations, that may be hedging USD bets and preparing for political instability. The price of Gold may underscore belief the U.S Fed will have to cut rates at least a couple of times this year no matter the economic facts on the ground, because this is an election year and if the central bank doesn’t deliver on its ‘promise’ jobs at the Fed may be at stake.

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WTI Crude Oil One Month Chart as of 2nd April 2024

Not making anything easier for Federal Reserve policy is the higher price of WTI Crude Oil which has reached the 84.00 USD per barrel price. If energy costs go higher this will not help the fight against inflation. OPEC will be conducting a meeting this week. As an aside the price of Cocoa per metric ton is now over 10,000.00 USD, which is more expensive than Copper. While the price of Cocoa is not a game changer for global financial markets, the higher price will make chocolate more expensive, which some traders may find disagreeable as they try to relax and watch their speculative wagers while trying to nibble on their favorite snack.

Monday, 1st of April, U.S ISM Manufacturing – both the Purchasing Managers Index reading and the Price numbers came in higher than expected. The stronger results show the U.S economy remains better than anticipated by the Federal Reserve, which has been counting on its higher interest rate to slow down growth and inflation.

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EUR/USD Six Month Chart as of 2nd April 2024

Tuesday, 2nd of April, European Manufacturing PMI – the European Union and Great Britain will release their business readings today. The results will demonstrate insights regarding sentiment. Financial institutions are worried the European Central Bank and Bank of England may have to consider lowering their interest rates before the Federal Reserve. The EUR/USD and GBP/USD will react to the results.

Tuesday, 2nd of April, U.S Federal Reserve FOMC Members – there will be appearances throughout the day in the U.S from various Federal Reserve members who will make the case for their monetary policy outlooks. It should be noted that Jerome Powell will be speaking on Wednesday. The JOLTS Job Openings will come out before the FOMC members speak. While the JOLTS report will not cause earth shattering reactions, the jobs data is the beginning of the parade regarding employment statistics for this week.

Wednesday, 3rd of April, U.S ISM Services PMI – taking into account the Manufacturing report came in stronger than expected on Monday, the Services data will be watched by financial institutions. If this report is better than anticipated, USD sellers will not rest easy. The ADP Non-Farm Employment Change data will also be released on this day.

Thursday, 4th of April, U.S Weekly Unemployment Claims – the Federal Reserve has been counting on employment strength to erode based on their notion that higher interest rates would create ‘lagging’ reactions in the jobs sector. Jerome Powell has said the Fed is anticipating weaker employment data. The results from the weekly report will not be as significant Friday’s data, but should be given attention by day traders in Forex.

Friday, 5th of April, U.S Non-Farm Employment Change and Average Hourly Earnings – the climax for speculators this week will be these jobs numbers from the States. If the numbers produce less hiring than expected this would help USD bearish momentum. Wages will also prove crucial regarding behavioral sentiment for financial institutions. Simply put, the Federal Reserve is anticipating that weaker employment numbers are going to be seen, if this doesn’t happen it might cause major volatility in Forex going into the weekend.

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Musings for the 29th of March 2024

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Musings for the 29th of March 2024

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10. Holidays: We wish everyone a peaceful long weekend. Hopefully the price of your chocolate eggs have not emptied your wallets.

9. Superconductivity: Nuclear fusion and magnets have a future together. Efficient electricity produced via compact generation is being worked on by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and the Jet Propulsion Laboratory of NASA.

8. TMTG: The Trump Media and Technology Group listed as DJT on Nasdaq ended yesterday’s trading within sight of 62.00 USD. The price is overbought taking into consideration its lack of revenues. However, because of its limited available shares, ‘shorting’ DJT is dangerous and a potentially expensive mistake.

7. Silly Season: U.S elections are growing closer and louder. However, fiscal and foreign policy clarity doesn’t get much airtime. Bread and circus for the masses.

6. Crypto ‘Insanity’: FTX Founder Sam Bankman-Fried was sentenced to 25 years in prison yesterday for his crimes. In the meantime, Bitcoin is over 70,000.00 USD this morning. Binance Coin is valued above 600.00 USD.

5. Frothy: Gold is near 2,230.00 USD per ounce, even as the USD grows in strength. Cocoa closed yesterday around 9,792.00 USD per metric ton, meaning it is more expensive than Copper, and the reason why your chocolate may be getting costly.

4. ‘Quiet’ Data: Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index data will be released today in the U.S, this as the financial markets are largely absent. Yesterday’s GDP and Consumer Sentiment numbers were stronger than expected. The inflation statistics may not get much fanfare today, but paying attention to the results could prove worthwhile for speculators.

3. Risk Warning: The return of large trading volumes next week are likely to cause volatility as financial institutions reopen and are reactive.

2. Bias: Many major currencies are struggling against the USD. Traders who believe their chosen currencies have been oversold should contemplate their perspectives and potential bias. Just because you believe something, doesn’t mean it is true. Forex is expressing nervous behavioral sentiment.

1. Fed Watch: Many analysts are starting to believe the Federal Reserve may not be able to cut interest rates this year, but traders should remember politics will be crucial as the U.S Presidential Election approaches. The Fed may be ‘independent’ but they are not deaf. If inflation remains stubborn, the Fed will need weak jobs numbers. But weekly Unemployment Claims came in below expectations yesterday. Financial institutions understand the U.S central bank is in a difficult place.

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Forex Volatility and Coming Data Attractions for this Week

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

Forex Volatility and Coming Data Attractions for this Week

Nervous trading results have hurt many day traders and likely financial institutions too, as behavioral sentiment in Forex gets blindsided by rather mixed U.S data and the Federal Reserve not giving a definitive answer regarding monetary policy. The violent trading in the USD last week was expected, but the turbulence that many Forex pairs experienced on Thursday and Friday of last week was rather vicious. For all the perceived sophistication of Forex markets via financial institutions, the trading results last week point to a definite fear of the unknown.

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USD/JPY Five Day Chart as of 25th March 2024

While the Bank of Japan finally changed its interest rate policy and moved to a Policy Rate of 0.10% early last week, this did not create selling momentum in the USD/JPY. The Federal Reserve’s dangling of potential interest rates to come this year caused temporary weakness in the USD, but as financial institutions and their clients looked at the prospects for a more dovish Fed they apparently became unimpressed as the days passed.

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WTI Crude Oil Six Month Chart as of 25th March 2024

The Fed seems to be betting on weaker jobs numbers developing, and there has been data which points to part-time jobs increasing, and full-time jobs becoming harder to find in the States. Jerome Powell said last week that if jobs numbers start to show weakness that the Fed would be willing to begin cutting interest rates even if inflation remains sticky. Lagging economic data correlations have not eased the Fed’s problems.

The Fed has also admitted inflation in housing, transportation and food remains problematic. WTI Crude Oil spent much of last week above 80.00 USD per barrel as its price has begun to show signs of rising incrementally again; and there is little the Fed can do about more expensive energy costs should they be seen. Higher costs for logistics will not make anything cheaper. Pricier mortgages, more expensive rent and insurance rates for cars and gasoline is creating serious knock on effects.

And for the sake of acknowledging the screaming prices in Cocoa, please have a look at the chart below which should explain why your chocolate products are going to be more expensive in the coming months. The price of the most delicious commodity in the world has tripled in less than a year’s time and is around 8931.0 USD per metric ton as of this writing.

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Cocoa One Year Chart as of 25th March 2024

Gold turned in a violent week of trading too as it reached 2224.00 last Wednesday, only to fall back to a known value around 2165.00. Day traders are dealing with violent cycles in Forex because sustained trends have been nearly impossible to find. While U.S equity indices are fighting upwards, speculators who are afraid of heights are likely being cautious if they are betting merely on the daily results from the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and Dow Jones 30 instead of investing for the long-term.

This week’s coming data from the U.S is important, financial institutions are already dealing with plenty of noise, and they will have to be careful regarding their interpretations regarding the coming economic statistics. Meaning day traders who are speculating in all financial assets should use risk taking tactics that are planned significantly in advance.

Monday, 25th of March, U.S New Home Sales – a slight gain is expected, but mortgage rates continue to shadow the housing sector and cause concerns.

Tuesday, 26th of March, U.S Consumer Confidence via the Conference Board – the reading is anticipating a slight increase. Consumer numbers from the U.S have come in mixed recently. A stronger result than estimated might not be welcomed by traders with bearish sentiment regarding the USD. The Fed wants its cake and to eat it too, they would like to see weaker consumer numbers and a soft economic downturn. If U.S shoppers remain confident this could help sustain inflation. It should be noted too, that Core Durable Goods Orders data will be released one and a half hours before the Consumer Confidence numbers.

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AUD/USD Six Month Chart as of 25th March 2024.

Wednesday, 27th of March, Australia Consumer Price Index – inflation numbers are expected to come in slightly higher than the previous results. Like most other central banks, except for the BoJ, the Reserve Bank of Australia would enjoy seeing inflation erode. The AUD/USD will react to the results certainly, but the price action might prove complicated because of USD centric notions.

Thursday, 28th of March, U.S GDP, Weekly Unemployment Claims, Pending Home Sales, and Revised Consumer Sentiment from the University of Michigan – put bluntly day traders will have to be well prepared for the combination of data from the States. Spectators who do not have large trading accounts and cannot take on a great amount of risk, should seriously consider sitting on the sidelines until most of the data is published. The GDP numbers will be watched carefully, while they are expected to match last month’s total, any surprises will affect the USD immediately in Forex. Weaker growth numbers might cause USD sellers to ignite positions.

However, before traders react too much to the Gross Domestic Product numbers, the Weekly Unemployment data will also impact the financial market. Financial institutions are anticipating a higher amount of unemployment claims this week. Also, at the same time as the growth and jobs numbers, the Final GDP Price Index numbers will be brought forth. The mixture from these reports could cause speculative whiplash.

The housing sector numbers and consumer numbers which come one and a half hours later will finish off a very big day for traders and institutional investors. The wide array of data could make this coming Thursday rather loud, and again rather dangerous for retail traders to participate.

Friday, 29th of March, Japan’s Tokyo Core Consumer Price Index – the inflation numbers are expecting to show a slight decrease to 2.4%. The result should certainly be watched by USD/JPY and GBP/JPY traders. If the number were to come in higher than expected, this could cause additional volatility for the Japanese Yen. Financial institutions seemed to indicate last week they would like to see the BoJ become more aggressive with their Policy Rate.

Friday, 29th of March, U.S Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index – the reading is expected to be below the previous month’s total. Traders should be on the lookout for revisions to past results. Financial institutions know this inflation number is important for the Federal Reserve, but they are concerned the U.S central bank doesn’t have the ability to combat inflation which is not part of the Core number. Energy and food costs which are hurting U.S consumers are not part of this report and likely making the Federal Reserve gun shy regarding monetary policy – which has caused a large part of the USD whipsaw trading results that Forex has experienced.