10Y Treasury Yields 20260916

Fed Decision: Two Sides of a Dangerous Coin

by with No Comment AssetsBehavioral SentimentCentral BanksCommoditiesEconomyEquitiesFeatured HighlightsFederal Reserve, Interest RatesFinancial InstitutionsForexIndiaInvestingRisk ManagementSpeculatorsUncategorizedWorld

The Fed Should Not Raise Rates But It Will

What and who you believe will play an important part in today’s market for speculators. While investors who are looking at long-term prisms can comfortably wait on the decision from the Fed’s FOMC regarding interest rates later today, retail traders who are trying to profit on near-term wagers via momentum and are seeking to gain an advantage by knowing which way the wind is blowing have a difficult task ahead. Via results in the Forex market it appears many financial institutions have braced already for an interest rate hike of a quarter basis point.

However, what if the financial institutions and many analysts are wrong? What if Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and other FOMC voting members believe the White House and think that inflation will erode as price pressures ease when there is a remedy to the Iranian conflict. That would mean that they could debate with other Fed officials for no interest rate hike. Because if the Fed were to raise interest rates later today, thus making borrowing costlier for businesses and consumers – and potentially putting more strain on the U.S debt payments because of increasing Treasury yields, it would still not solve the higher costs of energy. (There is an argument below which negates this possible yield problem and one that is likely to be heard from some economists).

10Y Treasury Yields 20260916

U.S 10-Y Treasury Yields Five Year Chart as of 16th September 2026

Yes, there is demand for fuel globally, but the demand for energy is not going to decrease because the U.S Federal Reserve may raise interest rates. In fact, it could make costs more expensive for businesses who are likely burning money via increased credit lines already created, this to transact their currently higher costs to guarantee effective supply of fuel to fund their logistics and manufacturing which they had not planned for while making their initial 2026 budget estimates prior to the Iranian war. In other words, a higher Federal Funds Rate will equate into higher costs for businesses.

$100.00+ WTI Crude Oil is Not A Friend

Per the other side of the coin, WTI Crude Oil has turned more expensive and volatile since March of this year. For a moment it looked like relief would be delivered via the supposed MoU between Iran and the U.S. WTI Crude Oil went below $80.00 periodically when optimism was peaked by White House rhetoric and calm waters in the Hormuz Strait were reported. Hopes for a return to WTI Crude Oil below $70.00 were viewed as legitimate.

However, the tranquility sought has vanished in the past couple of weeks and has grown more anxious as Saudi Arabia has become an important actor in the Middle East conflict as the Houthis and Iraqi militias cause havoc for the Saudi Arabian government. The price of WTI Crude Oil is now stubbornly above $100.00 and rumors about how Saudi Arabia is dealing with its own military confrontation and the way it is able to supply its own Crude Oil are confounding.

Which brings us back to the initial question regarding the Federal Reserve and Kevin Warsh, who will the Fed Chair listen to? Does he and other voting members of the FOMC believe there will be a quick fix to what has become stubbornly higher costs for WTI Crude Oil which is creating inflation? Or do they now have to objectively consider what may have been perceived as a temporary blip of elevated expenditures for the U.S economy as a potentially long-term problem? If Warsh and his cohorts believe the Iranian situation is going to find a remedy within the next four to five months, they should NOT raise interest rates today.

Again, while higher fuels costs are problematic, raising interest rates is not going to lower demand for WTI Crude Oil which is the chief instigator of higher inflation globally. It is not a question of who believes President Trump’s tantrums, it is a question concerning viability of a real end game to the Iranian situation. Plenty of Crude Oil exists, its production capabilities are strong, it is Middle East supply to Asia, Europe and Africa that is causing a problem and the higher cash and futures pricing for WTI Crude Oil. Thus, the lynchpin remains Iran. If their government capitulates and bends a knee, opening up the Hormuz Strait and stops plying its influence on the Houthis of Yemen and other militia groups in Iraq that are now causing problems for Saudi Arabia the price of WTI Crude Oil will drop dramatically.

If the situation is not rectified and the price of WTI Crude Oil remains elevated and Saudi Arabia doesn’t handle their confrontation which is turning increasingly militaristic, then it will not solve a higher interest rate initiative from the U.S Federal Reserve – unless the Fed is merely looking to decrease Treasury yields by increasing global demand for the bonds – thus hoping to increase their desirability.

Old School vs. New School 

Today’s decision from the Fed comes down to old text books and failed central bank policies versus new economic considerations. An interest rate hike from the Fed may actually make circumstance more difficult for governments around the world trying to balance their own books. 

For instance, higher yields on U.S debt are causing problems in India where some investors are shedding Indian Rupee assets and seeking the high yielding U.S Treasuries not only because of a ‘guaranteed’ bond yield, but the fact that their assets are stored in USD which is likely going to remain stronger than the INR over the next few years if a historical track record is looked upon. This is a saga that will play out in other emerging market nations too as financial institutions chase ‘secure’ profits.

5 is a Dangerous Number

So not only does the Fed face a problem regarding an interest rate hike that will not solve inflation problems caused by a war that is effecting prices because there is a fear of supply logistics, but there could be a knock-on effect regarding debt. U.S 10-Y Treasury yields near and above 5% is a clear warning side that investors are uncomfortable, this no mere speculative gain achieved by bond vigilantes. 

Another point, if the Fed were to raise interest rates today, it could in theory cause greater demand for U.S Treasuries from abroad and thus lower the Treasury yields for the moment – thus making the argument for a higher interest rate more dignified for those who want to raise rates. However, if the Fed were to say no to interest rate increases for now and point to a belief the U.S conflict with Iran is going to conclude sooner rather than later and said the U.S economy faces distress because of the higher fuels costs alone, this could also solve confidence problems.

U.S debt stands above 40 USD trillion, lower yields are a desire, but lower borrowing costs for businesses and consumers are wanted too. So what will the Fed do today………..drumroll please…………the Fed will raise interest rates – making a mistake. And will show it fears a long-term risk scenario between Iran and the U.S and problems for Saudi Arabia. The USD will see plenty of volatility. Confidence will not be shown by the Federal Reserve today and this will be problematic.

Stage presence from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is going to be extremely important today. He has failed in his previous two FOMC Press Conferences to look confident while speaking and answering questions. His speech at Jackson Hole in late August also proved lackluster.

And this is where is gets more dangerous for Warsh and the U.S White House, because of President Trump’s ability to change his tactics quickly – there is a lack of confidence among investors who are trying to gauge their outlooks for the mid-term and beyond.

Kevin Warsh will find it difficult to pull a rabbit out of a hat. Many folks will walk away disgruntled if an interest rate is introduced and no clear guideline is mentioned regarding what is next regarding other potential rate hikes – or a plan to actually lower the Federal Funds Rate. The U.S economy while strong could easily be sent into a recession with an interest rate hike and sustained higher WTI Crude Oil costs. 

Behavioral sentiment is going to remain on a toxic tightrope unless confidence is delivered. While individual perceptions about what should be done are important, understanding the mindset of the U.S Federal Reserve is crucial. Eliminating our own personal beliefs and bias from trading decisions and acting on what realities may be demonstrated are vital to profit. 

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India GDP Savings 20260911

India Insider: Leveraged FCNR Deposits Reliance and Remittances Masks Structural Vulnerabilities

by with No Comment AssetsBehavioral SentimentBen EzraCentral BanksEconomyExclusive ContentFeatured HighlightsFinancial InstitutionsForexIndiaInvestingSpeculatorsUncategorizedWorld

Forging True External Strength Without Relying on the Crutch of Foreign Deposits

For the last few weeks, financial publications have applauded the news that India received around $127 billion USD via leveraged foreign NRI deposits (FCNR). Banks swapped these dollars for Rupees with the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), securing cheap funding while ostensibly strengthening India’s external position. Analysts have calculated that while the hedging cost for the RBI is around $16.3 billion USD, the investment income generated by parking those funds in U.S Treasuries could reach $22.4 billion USD. On a net basis, this implies a $6.1 billion USD gain for the RBI over the next five years. However, while this may look like a tactical victory on a balance sheet, it ignores a fundamental macroeconomic contradiction: if the Indian economy is growing robustly, why isn’t its external position strengthening organically?

The Remittance Paradox

Indian rural towns and villages have long sent workers abroad to Singapore, Malaysia, the Gulf States and beyond. This migration has created a flush of dollar remittances, making India the world’s largest recipient in absolute terms. For instance, India has attracted around $135 billion USD in 2025, a figure that has been rising steadily. Yet, despite this massive nominal volume, remittances represent only about 3.6% of total GDP. 

This capital undeniably boosts domestic consumption, but it also exposes a structural gap between wages inside India and abroad. The fundamental characteristics of current account deficit countries is that they demonstrate low domestic savings, high investment needs, and persistent reliance on foreign capital to finance their deficits.

India GDP Savings 20260911

World Bank/CEIC for India and Global Average, and Wiemer EAI Brief for China’s 2008 Peak

In India’s case if the economy were truly expanding from within as said, domestic incomes would have risen proportionally with national growth, expanding the pool of internal capital. Instead with a vastly informal economy, India remains heavily dependent on its diaspora to fund its current account deficit.

The Domestic Savings Deficit

According to periodic labor force surveys, India is projected to have a working age population of around 900 million by 2030. To effectively employ this massive demographic dividend, the country urgently needs to raise its domestic savings rate. Currently clinging to roughly 31% of GDP, India lags far behind industrial powerhouses like China, which leveraged a domestic savings rate of around 45% to fuel its manufacturing ascent.

Policymakers should not rejoice over a capital account surplus funded by NRIs, especially when that surplus is leveraged over 7 to 10 times. It is this exact diaspora sending USD home that fuels India’s consumption, creating an illusion of self sustaining economic liftoff.

The “Dutch Disease” in Local Economies

The heavy reliance on remittances creates severe geographical distortions. Many towns possess high savings but they are incredibly unevenly distributed. These high savings are attributed to external capital rather than domestic productivity, while local employment remains trapped in informal service sectors or low productivity agriculture. Towns with high foreign remittances naturally develop immense asset bubbles in real estate and experience soaring rent and consumption costs. Because these economies do not export goods or services to other states or countries via production or services, they rely entirely on external capital inflows to generate internal demand. This reflects a localized variant of the “Dutch Disease”.

The labor market is extremely tight in these areas. Due to the high cost of living and limited wage growth, workers tend to migrate to other regions or overseas in search of better opportunities. This tight market further contributes to cost inflation in labor, food, and overall living expenses and increasing the cost structure for both households and businesses. This vicious cycle is primarily due to weak policy decisions from the government’s end, such as inadequate industrial infrastructure, poor urban planning, weak skills development, limited MSME financing, also insufficient connectivity.

A Structural Transformation is Required

This economic pattern is not unique to India, it also mirrors provincial towns in the Philippines, regions in Mexico and parts of the Balkans. While remittances support consumption and keep real estate elevated, they fail to translate into productive investment due to weak industrial bases and limited economic linkages. The result is seen vividly in the balance of payments clearly as India’s importing needs keep increasing, but the inability of Indian goods to compete globally results in persistent gaps in export volumes. 

With protectionist rhetoric vibrating in Washington and anti immigration protests rising from the U.S to Australia, this model is highly vulnerable. The Indian government must urgently pivot toward policies that empower Indian nationals to work in small and medium scale businesses (SMEs) domestically. By focusing on small scale manufacturing with high economic linkages and wage growth potential, domestic savings will naturally rise, eventually forging true external strength without relying on the crutch of foreign deposits.

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AMT Top 10

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Post-Labor Day Notes and Tantrums

by with No Comment AMT Top TenArtificial IntelligenceAssetsBehavioral SentimentBusinessCentral BanksCommoditiesEconomic CalendarEconomyEquitiesFeatured HighlightsFederal Reserve, Interest RatesFinancial InstitutionsFootballForexInvestingRisk ManagementSpeculatorsUncategorizedWorld

Higher Hopes and False Victories Welcome Nervous Investors Back After the Holiday

10. We Thought You Won – Part One: Apologies to Western Michigan University who had a victory stolen from them on Saturday in Ann Arbor. The Big Ten should not only be embarrassed, but they should be investigated. Big time college football suffered a black eye this past weekend. Folks wondering why WMU is not making a bigger stink regarding the added time and decision to repeat the last play of the game which ultimately cost WMU the contest against the Wolverines, should understand they will not. Because WMU needs to play against the University of Michigan to receive big pay days, which often are hard to find. WMU received 1.5 million USD for the game on Saturday and are scheduled to play against Big Blue again on the 1st of September, 2029.

9. Not Dead Yet: Bitcoin is trading near $78,800. After flirting with lows around the $58,100 vicinity in late June, BTC/USD has created momentum upwards. However, the elevator still can go down. Strategy via MSTR is near $142.00 per share. Michael Saylor survives and influencers are boisterous and breathing a bit easier – for now.

AMT Top 10

AMT Top 10 Miscellaneous Post-Labor Day Notes and Tantrums, 8th of Sept. 2026

8. Bad Brains: Tucker Carlson forayed into another absurd path when his recent guest, Jess Elofson, declared that Algebra is not needed and those who use it are ‘good little goy-slaves’. Carlson averages almost 57 million views to his podcast and social media outlets on a weekly basis.

7. NVDA: Nvidia is priced near $230.00 and the Nasdaq 100 finished Friday’s trading around 29,544. The Nasdaq 100 traded above 30,700 on the 3rd of June. Nvidia’s high touched the $236.00 level in the middle of May. Summer saw choppy reversals in the Nasdaq and S&P and values while elevated have run into cautious headwinds. Now that Labor Day is complete and summer ambivalence will be dusted off, where will the stock markets go? Iran lingers, inflation via higher energy costs looks problematic, mid-term election worries, AI infrastructure expenditures are concerning and bond yields all weigh on investment mindsets. Additional risk events are coming quickly down the road, Consumer Price Index data will be released this Friday and the Fed’s FOMC interest rate decision is next Wednesday on the 16th.

6. Reversal City: The USD/JPY is traversing below the 154.000 mark currently. The Bank of Japan and the U.S Treasury/Fed interaction regarding intervention and rhetoric about protecting the Yen’s value has apparently scared off buyers of the currency pair for the moment. Will bullish speculators now stay away from the USD/JPY for good? Doubtful.

5. Rhetoric Alone: Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh has found it difficult to convince the investment community that his lack of interest rate guidance is a good idea. Instead, the lack of clarity delivered from the Fed has led to higher Treasury yields. While Scott Bessent tried to fight the higher yields a couple of weeks ago, Treasuries are still smoldering and threaten to become a more dangerous fire. Investors and traders want more tangible proof that interest rate and monetary policies are structurally solid.

4. September 11th: This Friday will mark the 25th anniversary of terrorists attacks on the World Trade Center, Pentagon, and plane crash near Shanksville, Pennsylvania. 

3. Upwards: WTI Crude Oil price have shown plenty of nervous behavioral sentiment higher this past week. WTI Crude Oil is now over $94.00 in the cash market. Reports indicate that shipping via the Hormuz Strait has decreased again, this as military escalation appears ready to potentially increase as a reportedly desperate IRGC led Iran and frustrated U.S White House collide.

2. Post-Summer Guillotine: Danger lurks over the global marketplace, this as risk analysts, traders and investors appear to be converging into the same cautious direction. Forex, stock markets, bond yields, and key commodities are flashing bright yellow waring slow signals. Contrarian investors and speculators may be enjoying the current financial landscape. Value plays and volatile trading opportunities may feel appealing, but risk management is going to prove useful.

1. We Thought You Won – Part Two: After saying over the past handful of months that Iran had lost the war and just hadn’t surrendered yet, via Truth Social yesterday President Trump wrote that “when we WIN the war with Iran” that gasoline prices in the U.S would plummet. While observers are used to President Trump’s seemingly infinite capability to utter contradictory statements, yesterday’s appraisal of the current situation in the Middle East may be realistic, but it can also be observed as disquieting. There appears to be more trouble down the road.

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WTI CrudeOila 20260902

Bad Timing for President Trump May Equal Good Trading Opportunities

by with No Comment AMT MarketsAssetsBehavioral SentimentBusinessEconomyEquitiesExclusive ContentFeatured HighlightsFederal Reserve, Interest RatesFinancial InstitutionsForexInvestingRisk ManagementRobert PetrucciSpeculatorsUncategorizedWorld

You Don't Have to be a Buyer in the Current Marketplace in Order to Profit

There are moments when the markets are calm and then there are these times. It is beginning to look like increasingly bad timing for President Trump and his administration’s hope to keep WTI Crude Oil prices in check and silence the chatter about inflation. 

Instead of a de-escalation based on tranquil conditions in the Middle East, investors were smacked in the face again last night. However, while this may be a bad time to be an investor unless they are looking for value plays, traders may actually have more opportunities in the current market circumstances as long as they manage their risks appropriately.

WTI Crude Oil jumped higher last night and while the commodity has outdone itself since late February regarding price velocity, last night’s performance likely felt volatile even for experienced large players who have solid intel on the ground regarding Middle East shipping and supplies. The energy sector has been more akin to the soft commodities regarding reversals the past handful of months, Coffee, Cocoa and Crude Oil have offered colorful price ranges. But that is not how WTI Crude Oil is supposed to work.

WTI CrudeOila 20260902

WTI Crude Oil 1 Year Chart as of 2 September 2026

Inflation concerns will not go away quietly as long as WTI Crude Oil remains highly valued. Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh may in fact be putting on a show for the public – that he is his own man and can express his concerns regarding inflation no matter what President Trump thinks – when in fact he may simply be laying a framework to work in tandem with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and lower interest rates in order to create less pressure on Treasury yields. However, this planned (or conspiratorial) thinking may be hard to actually produce in reality on the 16th of September when the Fed’s FOMC has to show its cards once again. As long as WTI Crude Oil remains above $90.00, “Houston we have a problem,” murmurs may be heard loud and clear.

If Treasury yields remain tilted upwards because investors are refusing to buy them at cheaper rates, it will start to infect the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 and the Dow 30 more and create cautionary skirmishes which may produce deeper downsides in stock markets.

Iran wouldn’t want to cause President Trump problems, correct? Why would Iran want higher Crude Oil prices to ensnarl President Trump into a morass of political battles in the U.S and make life difficult for the Republicans during the mid-term elections? Does the IRGC have folks who understand the dynamics of U.S politics? Yes they do and it is a 100% certainty they would like to be a pain in President’s Trump’s aspirations.

We are left to deal with the ever-changing events that seem to be quite good at repeating themselves. Financial institutions are not only nervous about their mid-term outlooks, they are wary about the near-term too. Forex, commodities, bond yields, Wall Street and other global stock markets will struggle to make solid gains until clarity develops.

What will clarity look like? It will be optimistic banter in which rhetoric from different mouths and geographies is actually believed by the adoring crowds. Results do not have to be good, but outcomes need to be able to be forecasted and planned, allowing investors to seek their cash preservation and fortunes in a variety of assets (and show their overseers that they used adequate risk management in case things go wrong). 

Gold has done well recently, although it seems to have hit some resistance lately. However, if inflation tranquility is not achieved and if President Trump’s circumstances grow more dire, the precious metal will continue to offer speculative plays upwards. 

Investors are restless. Making 6 to 8% profits a year looks rather boring after plenty of solid years of upwards traction. Folks aren’t used to powerful financial storms and they forget about lingering troubled periods in which simple profits can prove comforting as broad markets struggle. 

Day trading is dangerous. However, those with solid risk taking tactics and those who aren’t married to the notion that markets only go up, but are willing to bet that markets (assets of many classes) can go lower too – now have an opportunity to test their technical perspectives and understanding of behavioral sentiment. 

Realistic targets using take profits and making sure stop loss protection still allows for a trade to move until goals are met is important when volatility is ripping price realms to shreds. Forex instability appears to be increasing as USD centric attitudes remain convoluted. Does Fed Chair Kevin Warsh have enough power to fight against an interest rate hike on the 16th of September, will the price of WTI Crude Oil cooperate, will President Trump’s wishful thinking about Iran come true? Results may not match what is wanted by the guardians of the marketplace. Contrarians may see the current market and global political situation as a time to seek value and help inflate markets, but they might be spitting into the wind. 

Maybe the AI concerns about infrastructure costs and corporate cash needs are baseless. Perhaps the deficit being created by the U.S and many other nations is simply idle chatter by risk analysts who are too nervous. Maybe there is a secret pill for all of us to become optimistic about all things.

It is a good time for traders to remain realistic and target exaggerated price movements in assets that offer opportunities in distressed offerings. You do not have to buy the marketplace to profit ladies and gentlemen.

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New Zealand Dollar 20260825a

NZD/USD: Elevated Value for Kiwi Coming Within Sight of Mid-Term Prices

by with No Comment Behavioral SentimentCentral BanksCommoditiesEconomyFeatured HighlightsForexRisk ManagementSpeculatorsUncategorized

The NZD/USD is around 0.59550, last Friday’s highs near 0.59885 vicinity flirted with mid-term highs

The NZD/USD remains a speculative currency pair that offers fast results and velocity. The relatively low liquidity of the NZD/USD compared to the upper tier of major currency pairs allows for sudden bursts of movements which experienced traders may find tempting and inexperienced retail folks wagering could find exhausting and costly. The NZD/USD ranks typically around 7th per the size of its volume in Forex. Ahead of it at number six is the AUD/USD.

New Zealand’s growth rate of near 1.5% has been holding steady for the past half year. On the 8th of July the Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised its Official Cash Rate by 0.25% and the next decision from the RBNZ is next week on the 2nd of September. Because of inflation concerns some analysts believe another quarter of a basis point will be added. The current price of WTI Crude Oil is over $85.00, but it needs to be noted that New Zealand imports refined petroleum product most of which comes from Asia – like South Korea and Singapore. The current rate of inflation in New Zealand is around 4.1%.

New Zealand Dollar 20260825a

NZD/USD One Year Chart as of 25 August 2026

What will the RBNZ Do Next Wednesday

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand like other global central banks has a dilemma because of the sticky higher costs of energy due to the Iran and U.S conflict. The situation in the Middle East is unlikely to be resolved in the coming month. The conservative led New Zealand government would likely prefer not having to raise the Official Cash Rate, but the central bank may feel like it has no other choice. The U.S Jackson Hole Symposium led by the Federal Reserve starts this Thursday and a key speech will be delivered by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh this Friday, New Zealand officials will be a participant.

If the Official Cash Rate is raised in New Zealand by 0.25% to 2.75% it may supply the NZD/USD some additional reasons for greater Kiwi strength. However, what should concern day traders is the suspicion that part of the interest rate hike has already been baked into the value of the currency pair. Psychological support for the NZD/USD is easy to see at the 0.59500 mark for near-term traders. Those looking for upside may want to use slight moves lower to wager on potential reversals that they believe could ignite upwards if they are conservative.

Near-Term Wagers on the NZD/USD and Risk Management

The NZD/USD is a favorite for many Forex traders because of its volatility and often its ability to produce rather intriguing trends. The currency pair has seen upwards value since last Wednesday and has shown an ability to sustain it elevated status while correlating to the broad Forex market. On Wednesday the 29th of July the NZD/USD was near the 0.57650 ratio. The currency pair was flirting with 0.60000 rather consistently in February before the Iran and U.S conflict escalated into military action. 

Day traders tempted to look for additional upside in the NZD/USD cannot be faulted. If Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh somehow sounds dovish regarding U.S interest rates this coming Friday and talks about a strong U.S economy, and the RBNZ were to raise the Official Cash Rate next Wednesday this could bolster the value of the New Zealand Dollar. Risk management for retail traders is essential because sentiment shifts within the current higher terrain of the NZD/USD could attract more bullish perspectives that also include USD centric weakness, but if a sudden headwind blows – velocity in another direction could create volatility downwards if those leaning into a stronger NZD/USD were to become concerned about their outlooks and abandon ship.

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USDJPY 20260813

Sentiment Matters: Speculative Narrative and the False Promise of Data

by with No Comment AssetsBehavioral SentimentCentral BanksCommoditiesCryptocurrenciesEconomyEquitiesExclusive ContentFeatured HighlightsFederal Reserve, Interest RatesFinancial InstitutionsForexInvestingRisk ManagementRobert PetrucciSpeculatorsUncategorized

Do Retail Traders Understand They Are Being Misled?

As day traders ponder what they should do next via their speculative wagers in the broad marketplace, now is a good time to remind small speculators stepping into the casino of global assets that a lot of the production value they are offered is part of a show. Entertainment is literally being produced to entice people to trade. A large amount of retail traders are constantly being misled. Your adrenaline high is being counted upon to keep you a participant. The thrill you get when you are trading should not be more important than the outcome of your trade.

Large money machines like the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, U.S Treasury yields, Forex, commodities and even the cryptocurrencies have plenty of descriptive words and definitions trying to interpret and predict values, trends and outlook, but quite frankly a lot of the words are nonsense created to entice and fool. Making retail traders willing participants in the circus is important because it keeps a lot of the the entertainers employed. 

It should be remembered that a lot of the folks on the institutional side of financial markets do not care about day traders except as an example of what not to do. They use day traders as a touchstone to point to failures and convince you why you are out of your element, while hoping you will stick around to create volumes that are often needed in some speculative assets. Are you being taken advantage of as a small speculator? 

USDJPY 20260813

USD/JPY Long-Term Charts as of 13 August 2026

It is Much Better to be the Bank

A lot of people in the institutional financial industry know one thing for certain, while some make money investing by themselves or produce outstanding results for funds, many do not. There is an old saying among veterans in the arena, “it is much better to be the bank”. Transactional costs from commissions, carrying charges, exchange fees and taxes make money for the institutions and government regulators.

Many folks are involved in the financial markets because it provides a solid pay check, it remains a good career path for those who want the comforts of modern society. However, being a day trader while working another job as a blue collar employee, or business owner, or while being a professional in another endeavor and dreaming about wealth creation via speculation is alluring, but it frequently does not produce steady profits like it does for the people working in financial institutions collecting a paycheck. 

Confirmation Bias and Investment Outcomes

Economists for instance are relied upon to decipher inflation and decode data for devoted audiences. The believers are told why certain assets are reacting and what might happen in the future by the influencers. But this also can manifest into self-fulfilling prophesy that may not actually be connected to real economic outcomes, except that outlooks get fulfilled because of emerging behavioral sentiment.

For instance when yesterday’s U.S Core CPI was released and hit its expectation, what did markets do exactly, what were investors reacting to? The markets reacted to what the perception of mid-term outlooks will now do, based on how they think the Federal Reserve will act in September and the coming months. Reactions to anticipated results are a key factor in market dynamics. Large positions are shifted by financial institutions which have the ability to to absorb short and near-term losses of capital while they wait for their mid-term outlooks to be confirmed. Confirmation bias remains important in the marketplace as results get generated via intraday results as big players thrash violently with massive piles of cash causing technical perspectives to drive algo trading.

Inflation is Not a Joke

Btw, why did god create economists? To make weathermen look good. While that may fray the feelings of economists, the joke holds water. Because observable data and printed results often do not correlate. Just ask global consumers in various nations what they think about their government’s stated inflation data compared to what they are spending on a monthly basis and rising costs. People on the street often feel their national currencies feel like they are losing money no matter what central banks are proclaiming.

Inflation is an important measurement for consumers and investors. But real inflation is often not a desirable talking point for many governments. Often excluded data includes products like food, energy, and mandated medical and pension costs via payments to government social programs. Increasing rent or mortgages via rising interest rates inside of certain government inflation reports are frequently avoided too and would look atrocious. Central banks are supposed to fight inflation, but which inflation exactly? I am digressing I know, this may have nothing to do supposedly with everyday speculating in the marketplace, but actually it does.

Because the Forex market, gold, equity indices are reacting to sentiment generated by the second based on what outlooks will be in vogue in a few months and inflation effects. Our age of social media and fast communication makes the markets vulnerable to fear and optimism equally. Speed matters even if it sometimes causes pain for day traders via lightning quick results in the marketplace as outlooks change constantly.

Make no mistake, market forces are always in play as investors look for value. Sentiment caused by folks like central banks and their policies play consistently important and volatile roles as large players and financial institutions react to tea leaves being read. The USD/JPY is a case in point, the Japanese Yen has been dramatically weak and losing value long-term. 

The intervention by the BoJ and U.S Treasury which was coordinated a couple of weeks ago didn’t fix the problem that Japan has poor monetary and fiscal policy. What it did was serve as a warning to day traders and large players (including banks) not to bet too strongly against the JPY too consistently even if their perceptions tell them otherwise, because the Japanese and U.S government can wreck havoc and create unforgiving momentum which can kill the infectious trend upwards when they desire. 

The BoJ and U.S Treasury definitively put on a show for traders to watch and contemplate before they consider stepping into the casino again. Sometimes it is better to watch the entertainment instead of being an actor within the drama.

Thrill of Risks and Solid Tactical Strategy 

Why do speculators insists on chasing markets without having proper guidance? Why don’t these same smaller traders just let professionals manage their assets and put some money away when they can and accept the returns? Maybe because many speculators are skeptical about the real returns and know they are being made to endure a magic show of sorts. 

Day traders should only risk what they can afford to lose via a speculative allotment of cash. Fund managers for financial institutions, pension funds for example, are often mandated to put 2 to 3% of holdings into speculative assets in order to seek bolder returns. This is one of the reasons why hedge funds and speculative assets flourish in a cyclical manner. Large financial institutions allow for wagering on asset classes they know are dangerous in an extremely limited manner, but with a huge amount of money. Can you say Bitcoin? And it is widely accepted that these speculative positions can be wiped out and destroy capital. Institutions often do not mind losing on limited speculative positions, the same cannot be said for retail traders.

Smaller retail traders should not view themselves engaged in a battle against financial institutions which are filled to the rim with employees who are often unsympathetic about the outcomes produced. The world of speculative betting by retail traders is not about to change. Day traders should study momentum and behavioral sentiment.

Traders need to understand how to manage risks and emotions. While speculators can dream about making illustrious profits to impress friends and partners, if they do not take into the consideration the costs of the risks they are likely going to fall into a deep hole. Strategic tactics are necessary. Retail trading doesn’t have to be a game if it is conducted wisely.

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WTI Crude Oil 20260601

Clues and Insults: Forex and Equity Indices During the Iran Saga

by with No Comment AssetsBehavioral SentimentCentral BanksCommoditiesEquitiesFeatured HighlightsFinancial InstitutionsForexInvestingMajor Global Equity IndicesRisk ManagementSpeculatorsUncategorized

Profits: Optimistic Wagers and Preserving Self as the Party Rages

New Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh certainly doesn’t want to have problems with President Trump. On the 17th of June the FOMC meeting via the Fed will make their interest rate decision known. Who really believes that during the first month on the job at the helm of the U.S central bank that Warsh is not going to fight to keep interest rates in place?

Those who are expecting an interest rate hike in June of a quarter of a point (0.25%) are most likely wrong. Yes, the price of WTI Crude Oil is high and the situation in Iran via narrative varies from one moment to the next per the reported incidents on the Strait of Hormuz.

However, just like the Fed there is a certain amount of reality that must be dealt with regarding human nature and behavioral sentiment regarding Iran and how it is dealt with via market participants. From the department of no news is good news: financial institutions and investors would like the noise to be kept to a minimum so they can continue doing their jobs and not be criticized themselves for potentially wrong outlooks. The art of making sure disclaimers are up to date is important for everyone who wants to stay employed.

WTI Crude Oil 20260601

WTI Crude Oil 1 Year Chart as of 1st June 2026

USD centric weakness was seen late last week in many currency pairs, but a quick glance at the majors: EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY actually show the pairs traversing rather cautious values. The EUR has gained slightly for instance, but at its current levels around 1.16410 some may believe it is a safe equilibrium. (One that may be able to be taken advantage of by those with the ability to bet on mid-term higher trajectories).

Central Banks globally also want to keep the noise down in their various locations. Inflation concerns persists worldwide depending on the amount of knock-on effects that higher energy costs have on national economies.

Also adding additional intrigue to the storyline of wanting to keep quiet while volatility threatens the gates, is that many people with comfortable jobs in various government institutions do not want to step out of line and sacrifice their careers for the sake of being proven right. They would rather be proven wrong, but would like to do this quietly without facing consequences.

The fact that we are now in a situation in which we are afraid to undertake critical thinking aloud is going to cause problems down the road, but for the moment most will simply go on with their various duties and pretend all is well.

U.S equity indices have been having a massive upwards party since the end of March as record heights are attained. Certainly some long-term investors are simply throwing money into indices as a way to get positioned before the SpaceX IPO which is coming soon. There will also be the Anthropic IPO which is reportedly set for late 2026.

The SPCX which seems to be aiming for the 12th of June will create a valuation well above 1 Trillion USD for SpaceX. The perceived value of Anthropic is becoming a loud talking point among analysts in the tech sectors and they are keen to have the company join the 1 Trillion USD party. The cost of admission for bragging rights is getting more expensive.

There was a time when things like PE (price and earnings) ratios mattered on Wall Street. Some brave folks still whisper about such things in meetings and bars late at night, but many do not want to be insulted or possibly worse get marketing folks selling these high priced products angry. The reason for speaking softly about actual earnings regarding SpaceX is because the company is actually working via an earnings loss, and instead price to sales estimates are being offered as some type of guideline. Having said the above, it would be foolhardy to bet against SpaceX and Elon Musk. And it might be equally unwise to bet against Anthropic in a handful of months. And thus, the rush into equity indices because there is a genuine fear of missing out does exist. Afterall, we all want to be part of the party.

And that brings us back to Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh who has the backing of President Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, he doesn’t want to insult these men either. Warsh may be quite good at what he does, he might be an expert and have real world business experience, and that might be a real clue for Forex traders who think higher interest rates are coming. Warsh will likely want to keep his first months on the job at the Fed on good terms with the White House and the Treasury. Kevin Warsh might be a free-thinker and know legally he is an independent leader of the Federal Reserve, but he also knows he was hired with a stated mission. There is a pro-business, free enterprise administration in power at the White House. Bessent, Warsh and Trump are on the same team.

So again, while some traders may believe the Fed will raise interest rates in June because of concerns of higher inflation, it most likely will not happen. While the Iranian war continues to make headlines in the financial world and dealt with via sentiment decisions, actual economic U.S data will start being watched in the coming days and weeks and might even influence perspectives. Investors will get bored of the Iranian saga as long as its narrative stays somewhat tepid. Meaning investors will start looking at CPI and PPI numbers coming from the U.S next week and talking about higher interest rates that will likely not be delivered in the upcoming FOMC meeting. 

The price of WTI Crude Oil as boring as it is to say remains a strong sentiment gauge for traders intraday. Large players involved in Forex might believe this will involve higher interest rates, but on the 17th of June it is more likely that Kevin Warsh will say that for the moment the Fed chooses to watch energy sector costs with the belief prices will decline in the coming months. The Fed will not use the term ‘transitory’ which was used infamously during the Covid crisis and turned into a poison pill with inflation that was not effectively fought. What the Fed will likely do is say they want more info to be gathered and more clarity regarding the Iranian situation and its overall effect on oil prices for a little while longer. Some patience will be asked for and it might be granted by investors who want the party to continue via equities.

Day traders should expect cautious markets to prevail in Forex with choppy results as financial institutions weigh their behavioral sentiment and try to make believe they are not too worried about near-term inflation. The CPI and PPI readings next week will prove of interest, but the results may be brushed aside by market pundits.

In the meantime, the celebrations on Wall Street continue as folks march merrily into the frenzy. Retail speculators who want to pursue short or near-term profits on the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 or Dow 30 indices need to be careful and might want to stay away from daily bets and instead engage in conservative positions that allow for a full week of results. The gains made since the end of March have been outlandish and likely will not be repeated anytime soon, but why try standing in front of a trend that can crush you.

Near-term considerations in these markets should be done carefully. The mid-term may be very different from where we stand today and our current outlooks. One thing that may bother some risk analysts is that it may prove wrong to bet against the current parade of optimists who insists on participating in dangerous conditions and profit, while they (the risks mavens) stand in place.

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SouthAfrican Rand 20260520

South Africa Outsider: Thoughts on the Rand and Guest Observations

by with No Comment AssetsBehavioral SentimentCommoditiesExclusive ContentFeatured HighlightsForexInvestingRisk ManagementRobert PetrucciUncategorizedWorld

USD/ZAR Considerations as Water Flows and Political Concerns are Compared

As a guest of South Africa (because of a personal relationship) and having been coming here frequently during the past four plus years it is easy to love the nation. Early last week a severe storm which brought high winds and plenty of rain hit a lot of the Western Cape knocking out electricity and water in a variety of towns. Having experienced hurricanes in the past, the wind was not quite comparable, but the consistency of the gusts over two days caused major damage.

Electricity and water have been restored to most people now. Wifi remains a problem for some, but folks are surviving. The damage to homes, infrastructure in towns and agriculture will keep individuals busy for a while. However, the Western Cape because of good political leadership and the stoic mannerisms of the people have worked together to move forward. So what does this all have to do with the South African Rand?

SouthAfrican Rand 20260520

USD/ZAR Five Year Chart as of 20th May 2026

The USD/ZAR is traversing within a higher price realm since the start of March because of the Iranian conflict. The currency pair flirted with depths below 16.00000 in the middle of February. The value of the USD/ZAR at this time is close to 16.70000 depending on bids and asks. The Rand is correlating to the broad Forex market as USD centric strength has emerged recently, this as U.S 10 Year Treasury yields increase and threaten to become sustained. The U.S Federal Reserve is suddenly dealing with threats of inflation becoming sticky over the mid-term because of escalating energy costs. The U.S has plenty of WTI Crude Oil, but nations which had counted on energy from the Middle East are suddenly U.S customers and increased demand is going to cause WTI to remain elevated until the Iranian situation resolves. 

The USD/ZAR was in a bearish trend since early August 2025 when values were above 18.00000. The highs in early August of last year were caused by concerns the U.S White House sparked because of tariffs. South Africa is still facing tirades from the Trump administration about some policies being practiced in South Africa, but financial institutions have looked elsewhere regarding impetus for the Rand and its correlation to global Forex is the chief influencer.

While South Africa and its people and culture are easy to embrace, there are issues that remain problematic in the nation. Politics around the world often appear to be a complex myriad because certain people and partisanship are transfixed on power. Corruption globally is an issue in many nations that causes not only fiscal problems but inflation. South Africa suffers from these complications too. These matters can only be fixed with transparency and patience, and importantly – for citizens to demand better. 

Politically the current coalition government on the surface appears to be working. Yet, the potential for fractures to grow over the next handful of months as municipal elections approach –  the Johannesburg mayoral and city council results will prove fascinating, will be crucial for South Africa. Johannesburg has been facing a water supply crisis for a while and its consequences are a stark contrast to the Western Cape’s ability to repair and replace infrastructure in a matter of days after the recent storm.

The USD/ZAR is likely to correlate to USD centric price action near and mid-term, but there is a chance heightened political rhetoric and voting outcomes in a handful of months could shift impetus for a short while. Higher energy costs in South Africa now and into the mid-term will cause inflation. Food costs do appear to be incrementally rising in supermarkets. 

Yes, gold and platinum values will be looked at by some analysts and pointed to as reasons for the stronger South African Rand, and this influence may be real – to a degree. However for the moment, the USD/ZAR remains transfixed within the lower realms of its long-term price range mostly because the coalition government here is viewed positively, and the USD was weaker globally. 

The U.S Fed does have inflation concerns arising. As much as President Trump would like the new Fed Chairman, Kevin Warsh, to be dovish the reality for the U.S central bank and financial institutions judging outlooks lacks clarity for the moment. Sideways choppy price action in Forex and for the USD/ZAR may prevail in the coming days and weeks. And if the Iranian situation grows more boisterous, USD centric strength could grow.

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Indian Rupee 20260515

India Insider: Rupee Under Pressure as Oil Prices Surge and Import Bills Rise

by with No Comment AssetsBen EzraBusinessCentral BanksCommoditiesExclusive ContentFeatured HighlightsFinancial InstitutionsForexIndiaInvestingSpeculatorsWorld

Iranian War and Implications for India as Energy Prices Cause Vulnerability

India is currently facing mounting external economic pressures as rising global crude oil prices weaken the Rupee, widen the current account deficit, and increase the risk of imported inflation. As one of the world’s largest energy importing nations, India remains highly vulnerable to fluctuations in global oil markets. The recent surge in energy prices, combined with geopolitical tensions and volatility in currency markets, has intensified concerns among policymakers, economists and investors.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has stepped up its intervention in the foreign exchange market to stabilize the Rupee, while the government is evaluating measures to reduce pressure on import billing. Rising fuel prices, weakening currency conditions and growing external imbalances have combined to create a challenging macroeconomic environment that may test India’s economic resilience in the coming years.

Indian Rupee 20260515

USD/INR Six Month Chart as of 15th March 2026

Gold and consumer electronics imports are increasingly being viewed as non-essential imports, and policymakers may consider restricting these categories in order to reduce stress on the current account deficit. Officials are concerned that a widening trade imbalance could place further downward pressure on the Rupee and increase dependence on foreign capital inflows.

The Rupee on Thursday fell to a record low near ₹95.95 per USD, making it one of Asia’s weakest performing currencies this year. The currency has erased most of the gains achieved following earlier RBI intervention measures aimed at curbing speculation in the Forex market. Analysts expect the Rupee to remain under pressure through 2026, especially if global crude oil prices continue to rise and significantly increase India’s import billings.

The impact of rising crude oil prices is becoming increasingly visible across the Indian economy. Private fuel retailers have either reduced diesel sales or raised prices in response to the rally in global oil markets, leaving state owned refiners to absorb a larger share of domestic demand. Long queues at fuel stations and rising transportation costs have intensified concerns over inflationary pressures.

Earlier today, State-owned fuel retailers raised fuel prices for the first time in nearly four years as New Delhi adjusted domestic pricing to reflect higher international crude prices following escalating tensions in Western Asia. Diesel and gasoline prices increased by more than 3%, even though Brent crude prices had risen by nearly 50% over the same period.

In New Delhi, diesel prices climbed to around ₹90.67 per litre, while gasoline prices rose to approximately ₹97.77 per litre. These are among the highest levels recorded since 2022 and reflect the growing burden of imported energy costs on the Indian economy.

Economists argue that the rise in fuel prices signals a gradual shift toward market based pricing rather than extensive government controls. Policymakers increasingly recognize that artificially suppressing fuel prices could worsen fiscal pressures and create larger external imbalances over time.

Currency Weakness and Monetary Policy Challenges

RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra recently remarked at an event in Switzerland that continued currency weakness may be “only a matter of time” if global energy prices remain elevated and capital flows become increasingly volatile.

Foreign outflows during the year have already exceeded previous levels, while a sustained rise in crude oil prices above $100 per barrel could significantly widen the trade deficit and push India towards another period of pressure on balance of payments.

In this climate, attracting foreign capital via various tax cuts or raising the interest rates is paramount to reduce the pressure on the currency. It’s already been seen that New Delhi is working on reducing taxes for foreigners investing in Indian bonds.

Rise of Inflationary Pressures

Although India’s headline inflation remains relatively contained and below the RBI’s 4% medium term target, imported inflation risks are steadily increasing.

Economists also believe the RBI may eventually be forced to maintain tighter monetary conditions or raise interest rates further if energy prices continue to accelerate.

The central bank has already raised interest rates to around 5.25% this year, but several economists argue that further tightening may still become necessary.

Historical Perspective and Structural Risks

Economic historians often compare the current situation with the oil shocks of the 1970s. During that period, the United States was heavily dependent on imported oil. The oil crises of 1973 and again in 1979 contributed to inflationary pressures, balance of payments stress, and periods of USD weakness.

However, economists note that today’s global environment is significantly different. The United States has become one of the world’s largest oil and gas producers, reducing its dependence on imported energy. As a result, rising oil prices no longer weaken the U.S Dollar in the same way they did during earlier oil shocks.

For countries like India, the impact remains severe. India imports the majority of its crude oil requirements. Higher global oil prices directly increase India’s import billing and create additional demands for USD.

As Economist Philip Verleger was quoted by Bloomberg, “when you are a major oil importing nation, you are not only paying more for crude itself, you are also paying more for the dollars required to purchase it.” India is now facing this realization again.

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postN87

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Morsels for the 12th of April 2026

by with No Comment AMT Top TenAssetsBehavioral SentimentCommoditiesEquitiesFeatured HighlightsFinancial InstitutionsForexSpeculatorsWorld

Optimistic Hopes Appear Ready to Fade into the Distance

10. B-ball: The NCAA Men’s Basketball Championship concluded early last week with a rather resounding outcome for the University of Michigan who won their 2nd Men’s trophy, the first one coming in 1989. Michigan dismantled the Arizona Wildcats and then handled the Connecticut Huskies. The NBA playoffs will start this coming week. The Oklahoma Thunder and the San Antonio Spurs are getting a lot of attention, and the Denver Nuggets might have something to offer.

9. Trump: A week of optimism now leads towards threats of additional noise. Peace talks held in Pakistan appear to have failed this weekend, and now another countdown has begun as the Iranian conflict appears ready to escalate. The U.S White House and President Trump will certainly make more noise in the coming days.

postN87

AMT Top 10 for the 12th of April 2026

8. Logistics Advertising: Kit Kat and Nutella have been rewarded with massive exposure. The Kit Kat truck heist of 12 tons of product (reportedly said to be in a special F1 designed candy bar theme) made headlines. Kit Kat’s owner, Nestle, was obviously content with the free publicity and proof of demand. And a jar of Nutella floated across the Artemis 2 spacecraft unexpectedly this week, gaining international attention and sparking smiles from fans of the Italian chocolate hazelnut spread.

7. Creator: Yet another candidate accused of being Satoshi Nakamoto has been produced. Blockstream’s CEO Adam Back has been named by the N.Y Times as a potential creator. In the meantime, the real question is whether anyone but Iran (as they run their illicit shadow economy), Michael Saylor of MSTR and a few big whales consisting of institutions and hedge funds are really paying any attention to BTC anymore. The BTC/USD price as of this morning is around $71,600.00. Bitcoin was traversing near $126,000.00 in the first week of October 2025.

6. Greenback: USD/JPY 159.240, EUR/USD 1.17225, USD/ZAR 16.38540, USD/INR 93.0480. USD centric strength may prove solid this coming week and other currencies may suffer a bit.

5. Sideways Shimmer: Gold finished the week near $4.745.00, roughly $100.00 above its starting point last Monday. U.S 10-Y Treasury yields went into this weekend around 4.34%. Shifting outlooks this coming week will likely ignite turbulence in both assets.

4. Blind Eyes: More than a handful of U.S politicians have been featured as big winners regarding their stock trading abilities. Their gains far exceed the winning percentages of the overall returns made by indexes (as a benchmark). Little has been done to stop what many view as insider trading. There are many forms of political corruption around the world. However, a variety of places and people, including Americans seem to accept this potential misconduct. The ‘Stop Insider Trading Act’ has been brought forth in the House of Representatives and Senate, but the legislation may simply meet a slow death and disappear.

3. Inflation: U.S interest rates via the Federal Reserve will be held in check at a minimum over the next few months. The higher costs of energy will certainly seep into prices for transportation, manufacturing and agriculture. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell may be quite content to leave his position May the 15th. The next Fed FOMC interest rate decision is due on the 29th of April.

2. Strait of Hormuz: WTI Crude Oil closed above $90.00 going into this weekend. When futures markets open early on Monday, the price of the commodity is likely to rise via increased anxiousness which will build into the mindsets of large players today because of the failure of peace talks in Pakistan. The price of Crude Oil remained high last week, only moving to a low of around $85.00 this past Tuesday, showing cautious attitudes remained. Prices above $100.00 will likely become a new target quickly for some who bet. Will an early spike upwards this week then start a counter reversal lower, or will a climb become sustained?

1.  Risk Off: The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 will get plenty of attention this coming week as behavioral sentiment remains fragile. Having skirted near its 200-days moving average lows in recent weeks, the indices have gained handsomely since the 31st of March. Will the upwards momentum come to an abrupt end this week, or have financial institutions been able to digest their nervousness and will they show a capability of remaining buyers?

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South African Rand 20260327

G7 Snub for South Africa and other Troubles for the South African Rand

by with No Comment AssetsBehavioral SentimentCentral BanksFederal Reserve, Interest RatesFinancial InstitutionsForexRisk ManagementSpeculatorsWorld

USD Centric Strength and Global Anxiety Weighing on Value of Rand

The USD/ZAR is still above 17.00000 in early trading this morning, this as USD centric strength manifests globally due to anxiety which clearly exudes because of the ongoing Iranian war. The USD/ZAR is near the 17.11000 realm, with wide spreads via bids and asks.

The price of Gold is close to $4,450.00 and Palladium is around $1,395.00 – this after touching apex marks in late January when the $2,100.00 level was breached.

South African Rand 20260327

USDZAR Six Month Chart as of 27th March 2026

These metals are important for South Africa, but their daily values do not effect the USD/ZAR like they did in the past because of other complexities. The USD/ZAR which had enjoyed a stellar bearish trend and touched lows of 15.68000, late in January, could be correlated to the decrease in value to the precious metals by some, but this is likely false narrative.

When the larger picture of pure behavioral sentiment within the Forex broad market is looked upon other factors are a certainty. The South African Rand, in a rather healthy manner, is largely dependent on financial institutions outlooks regarding the USD, 10-Year U.S Treasury yields, and what the U.S Federal Reserve outlook projects.

The U.S central bank, which many people including myself, was thought to be in position in which the Federal Funds Rate would be lowered in the coming months, now faces complications due to what may become chronic higher energy costs through the mid-term if the war in the Middle East persists and inflation due to logistics, manufacturing and agriculture are effected.

The USD/ZAR near the 17.0000 is a good barometer of South African financial institutional attitudes. Yesterday’s news that South Africa will be excluded from the G7 meetings in France, which will be held in June, will not make folks in South African financial spheres content. However, these same people within the machines of corporate finance in South Africa have grown used to the vagaries of mismanagement, corruption and perceptions these cause for the nation. While some South African government officials initially said France had been pressured by the U.S to disinvite South Africa from the G7 summit, they have changed their tune this morning and are trying to downplay the exclusion as insignificant.

Thus, we return back to the USD/ZAR and near-term considerations. While the currency pair has shown the tendency to reverse lower when marks above 17.10000 have been challenged the past few weeks in March, this morning’s early trading which is sustaining higher values is troubling. The consideration that nervousness among global investors remains skittish at best is unsettling. Those who are making short and near-term wagers on the USD/ZAR are likely concerning themselves with the upcoming weekend and its unknowns. From a trading perspective, folks are usually cautious about taking speculative positions over the weekend when they fear there is a possibility of bad news.

The USD/ZAR is touching important resistance above, if calm doesn’t return to the broad markets across various international assets today, the currency pair may find itself testing higher realms as next week begins.

Looking for downside in the USD/ZAR may prove difficult to attain later today. Traders should keep their eyes on other gauges and watch the U.S 10-Year Treasury yields which are near 4.45% (highs that haven’t been seen since July of 2025), WTI Crude Oil prices and the major U.S equity indices which are in correction territories.

From a betting perspective, if U.S 10-Year yields escalate and the price of energy ebbs upwards today in commodity markets, and there is more trouble on the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500, this will be problematic. The USD has been volatile, but has certainly shown a tendency to get stronger in recent weeks. A higher USD/ZAR above the 17.20000 is not out of the question.

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Iran What Losing Looks Like 20260323

Iran: What Losing Looks Like

by with No Comment AssetsExclusive ContentFeatured HighlightsIra SlomowitzRisk ManagementWorld

Who is Losing Militarily, Technologically, Economically and Diplomatically?

Opinion: The following article is commentary and its views are solely those of the author. This article was first published the 20th of March via The Angry Demagogue.

It is difficult for many to admit that the US and Israel are winning the war and that conquering a country the size of France, Germany, UK, Netherlands and Spain together with only air power does not take a day or two. However, by any objective (meaning without thinking that all Trump/Bibi/Hegseth, etc. bad) standard, the allied coalition is systematically destroying the military industrial complex that is the Islamic Republic of Iran (what it is not is a State dedicated to the good of its citizens). People forget that the American air campaign in Gulf War 1 was 38 days. It started on January 17, 1991 and only by February 24 did the generals feel that they could invade and take Kuwait.

Iran What Losing Looks Like 20260323

The air campaign then poured over 88,000 tons of bombs in approximately 100,000 sorties. And this to capture a country a bit smaller than New Jersey.

As we finish the third week of this war we can assess who is winning and who is not. We have spent this past week discussing what it means to be victorious in this war (The Economy and The Military) and to state unequivocally that victory is the moral choice no matter the price of oil. That being said, the price of oil is rising and hit $120 a barrel before dropping. Economists see $138 barrel as the price that could send the US into a recession. So far, the US economy is holding firm. The S&P 500 closed on the Friday before the war at 6740 and yesterday’s close was 6624 – a drop of about 1.7% – not the panic that the front pages would have us think. The Eurostoxx 50 is actually up slightly from 5719 to 5736.

The Federal Reserve did not cut rates, signifying that they don’t need to prop up the economy and risk inflation as they do when they fear a collapse.

The economies of the West seem strong in spite of (or because of?) the war which should end with the cessation of the 47 year of Islamic Republic price premium. The Russian and Chinese economies meanwhile will be under stress for quite some time. While China will have to wonder about its oil supply, Russia understands that $100 a barrel oil will encourage increased US production (and now Russian and Chinese free Venezuelan?) that will hurt them when oil prices go back to normal levels. As we will now discuss, Chinese and Russian arms deals might start to go south, too.

Technologically, this war is a further test of American and Israeli technology and abilities, and they have passed with flying colors. The American and Israeli missile and drone defense systems are outperforming what they did less than a year ago in the “12 Day War” and the U.S Navy is untouchable. The Gulf States are also fairing better than expected although due to the short distance and the lack of experience, they are getting hit more than Israel is. To top it off, the Russians have forced Ukraine to become global leaders in the defense against drones and there are now 2,000 Ukrainian anti-drone personnel in the Gulf States.

But is the air-forces that are performing so well, that one would think that the Iranians did not invest in the most advanced Russian and Chinese air-defense systems over the past few years. The S-300 or S-400 advanced Russian systems or the Chinese HQ-9B long range surface to air missile and the JY-26 (alleged) anti-stealth radar, are performing so poorly, the Chinese themselves must be hoping it is a personnel issue and not a technological one.

Speaking of personnel, this war has shown that pilot skill still matters. It is the bravery, daring and success of American and Israeli aviators that matters as much as the technology. Just look at the Gulf countries who fear sending their combined force of around 400 F-15’s and French Rafale fighters into the air.

The Russian air force (and army) has already shown it is lacking the skill to compete with even poorly trained Ukrainian pilots, let alone with American or Israeli aviators. The Chinese too, must be wondering if their air force, made up of untested, pilots from one-child families will brave the fire coming from Taiwan as well as the American and Japanese navies in order to complete their missions.

Technology is great – especially if it works as advertised, but if the “operators” are inferior, even great technology will not be up to par. No one yet has been able to match American and Israeli personnel, in the air or on the ground.

Which brings us to that annoying wild-card, the Straits of Hormuz. While the Iranians have not succeeded in closing the straits they are scaring off shipping to an extent that it is a concern not only for the present but for the future. By using this tool, by playing this card, if you will, Iran has forced the United States to make the security of the Straits a war aim. The success of the U.S operation in the Straits will turn it from an international waterway under the veto power of Iran to a U.S controlled and protected gateway from the Persian Gulf. In times of war with China the U.S Navy will be able to turn it into a Chinese energy chokepoint. If the U.S was not there prior to the Iranian gamble, they will be there now.

As for pure military, Iran is losing as no one has lost before. The combined forces have destroyed nearly all their production capabilities for military hardware, have destroyed air defenses, command and control centers, leadership on multiple levels and most of their navy. We don’t need much more to declare Iran the military loser.

Diplomatically, things are not as they appear. While no western European countries support the fighting or even the aims of the war, the Gulf States, India and others are quietly forming an unofficial coalition against regional terror. As Europe tries to figure out how to pacify its growing radical Moslem population, other counties, including Moslem ones, are finally realizing that terror against Israel and Jews slowly but surely works its way back to them. For fanatics, no one is religiously or ideologically pure enough, even if you are descended from Mohammed.

Western Europe is a clear diplomatic loser in this war as President Trump is the last person who will forgive their teachery and allow them to share in the spoils of this war. Their role in the Middle East and in global politics generally is done. Their ability to use their victory in WWI to determine and influence events around the world is finished even though they have now backtracked and agreed to help on the Straits of Hormuz issue.

Regarding China, they have now abandoned one of their main allies and the country they have depended on to provide them not only oil but a strong military presence in the Middle East. The war was clearly coming and just as the United States sent carrier groups to protect its and its allies’ interests, so too, could have China. They could have sent naval vessels to help defend Iran – or at least deter the United States but did not, either because they don’t have the ability to do it or they don’t have the will. In either case, China is a diplomatic loser in this war.

Russia is also losing the diplomatic game as Ukraine becomes closer to the Gulf states and Israel and America are neutering their best technology. Regarding Israel’s recent sinking of Iranian naval ships in the Caspian Sea, reports are coming out that they were laden with Russian military aid. Russia, like China, has not raised a finger to help their main Mideast ally, making it hard for them to claim the loyalty of other purported allies.

And Israel? Israel seems always to be a diplomatic loser, war or peace. However, this war has strengthened the bonds between the American and Israeli military in ways that no one could have foreseen just months ago. The cooperation and trust between the two militaries is beyond anything America has had since its partnership with the UK in WWII. Western Europe’s continued irrelevance on the global scene has lightened the pain the Israeli public feels for western Europe’s betrayal.

India on the other hand has tightened its ties with Israel as Prime Minister Modi’s pre-war trip to the country showed. As for the Gulf Countries, the UAE seems to be interested in strengthening its Israeli ties while Qatar does not. While Qatar is angry at Iran for their attacks it is not clear that this will lead them to abandon their goals of Islamicizing the West and ridding the world of Israel. Saudi Arabia is hard to call. We don’t expect any diplomatic breakthroughs especially if the Islamic Republic actually falls.

Israel we can say is neither a winner nor a loser, yet, in the diplomatic arena – which, considering the beating Israel gets on the world stage, might be called a win but most certainly is not a loss.

The United States can hardly be considered a diplomatic loser in this war as they are the only major power to be able to come to the aid of allies when U.S interests are also involved. The tough talk out of western Europe is a very small thorn in the side of the United States.

To summarize, Iran is the big loser of course as their support comes from a neutered Russia, an apathetic China and a global progressive left that has no power to influence, let alone determine events. Iran’s main allies have been proven ineffectual at best, uninterested at worst and their “brand” has been diminished no matter what else happens in the war.

The only part of the war that the United States and Israel can be said to be losing is the news and propaganda (but I repeat myself) war.

For the things that count though, one thing is certain – the United States and Israel are not the losers.

Disclaimer: the views expressed in this opinion article are solely those of the author, and not necessarily the opinions reflected by angrymetatraders.com or its associated parties.

You can follow Ira Slomowitz via The Angry Demagogue on Substack https://iraslomowitz.substack.com/

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