WTI Crude Oil 20260701

What Am I Missing About USD Centric Strength?

by with No Comment Behavioral SentimentCentral BanksEconomyEquitiesFeatured HighlightsForexInvestingRisk AnalysisSpeculatorsUncategorized

Being Wrong About USD Direction and Betting Against the Trend

Help me out here folks, I am perplexed. I seem to be missing something about the USD centric strength, it looks very overbought to me. Where is all the buying sentiment coming from? The FOMC meeting outcome on the 17th of June has certainly sparked USD centric buying stamina as financial institutions seem to have fallen into a strict line and priced in a Federal Reserve interest rate hike this year.

However, the price of WTI Crude Oil was near $80.00 on the 17th of June. And on the 3rd of June the price of WTI Crude Oil was within sight of $100.00. Meaning that we have seen the price of energy trend lower. The agreement between the U.S and Iran, although fragile, has held and the current price of WTI Crude Oil is close to $69.70.

WTI Crude Oil 20260701

WTI Crude Oil One Month Chart as of 1st July 2026

While concerns about inflation certainly remain, costs should actually start to erode for logistics, fertilizers for agriculture, and manufacturing. Job numbers are solid, growth has been rather steady and shown signs of improvement. If inflation starts to behave and financial institutions change their thinking about interest rates to come, perhaps they will ease off on their borrowing costs.

Also, let’s note that as expected the new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh has made it clear he will take a more proactive stance regarding interest rates. Evidence for this comes via Warsh’s decision not to participate in the dot forecast that FOMC members use, his absence from the Fed’s ‘prediction market’ game was notable, but many analysts seem to have missed the importance.

In my opinion, Warsh’s decision not to participate in the Fed’s dot plot quarterly signal chart shows the new Chairman wants to create the capability of changing his mind regarding the Federal Funds Rate as needed. The decision not to ‘anonymously’ show what his beliefs are looking forward will allow him to steer the Federal Reserve per forward looking economic data points instead of being held accountable – and possibly blamed – for changing his mind if a shift of opinion is needed.

So again, why is the USD so strong across the Forex board? The USD/JPY is trading well above 162.660+, the EUR/USD is near 1.13900, the GBP/USD around 1.13247 and the USD/SGD is sustaining value at mid-term highs close to 1.29660. While financial institutions appear to have priced in an interest rate, and may also be nervous about volatility in U.S equity indices, the cautious approach has created in my opinion an overbought USD.

As the Independence Day holiday approaches, Forex traders should be careful. If ever there was a time for the Bank of Japan to intervene and cause chaos it might be when USD Forex volume is minimal. Large USD traders may start vanishing in the coming days before the long holiday weekend, and the absence of U.S banks this coming Monday will also factor into the markets.

Selling the USD looks like a speculative bet certainly, particularly because its trend has proven rather strong the past few weeks. Let’s see what happens, but I suspect some downside pressure via USD centric price action is going to be generated.

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Nasdaq 100 20260608

Nasdaq 100: Terrible Friday Being Confronted by Manic Monday

by with No Comment AMT MarketsAssetsBehavioral SentimentBusinessEquitiesFeatured HighlightsFederal Reserve, Interest RatesFinancial InstitutionsForexMajor Global Equity IndicesRisk ManagementSpeculatorsUncategorizedWorld

Fear of the Middle East Not the Main Motivator for the Nasdaq 100

After Friday’s selling surge and a fall of -4.77% with a close of 28,957.60, the Nasdaq 100 futures trading this morning has actually seen an increase and is near the 29,479.00 mark as of this writing before the cash Nasdaq 100 market opens.

Friday’s selling nightmare for traders who found themselves stubbornly locked into what were to be short-term buying positions and saw the Nasdaq 100 plummet -4.77%, probably woke this morning believing ugly conditions may not stop. An escalation in military action via proclaimed retaliatory moves between Israel and Iran started today’s trading with a high degree of more anxiousness. USD centric strength in Forex was demonstrated early.

Nasdaq 100 20260608

Nasdaq 100 Futures Value 1 Month Chart as of the 8th of June 2026

However, in the past couple of hours calmer heads have prevailed among financial institutions and USD centric buying in the broad Forex market has run out of steam – at least momentarily. For instance the USD/JPY is near 159.927 currently, opposed to earlier highs seen this morning which challenged the 160.400 vicinity. What does this have to do with the Nasdaq 100 and its current status? 

It appears via futures trading that large players may also have taken a sedative and looked at the index as having been oversold on Friday. The Nasdaq 100 has actually gained early today and signs that a de-escalation of military force between Israel and Iran is being reported. However, that still leaves day traders wondering what will happen as the cash market opens soon and volumes increase.

Let’s Say Quiet Prevails the Remainder of the Day

Not because of a utopian outlook, but a geopolitical perspective, let’s try to image Iran’s stated intentions of no more retaliatory strikes being launched towards Israel as true. The past couple of hours have been more tranquil as a signal in case you are wondering. Then investors and financial institutions will have to digest the Middle East concerns as they have done over the past couple of months in U.S equities, and decide to operate again on the Nasdaq 100 with near and mid-term outlooks.

Friday’s huge selling was blamed by some on the likelihood of a ‘potential’ U.S Federal Reserve interest rate taking place on the 17th of June. This because better than expected jobs numbers showed to some that the U.S economy was running hot once again. 

Additionally expressed fears, which are legitimate, about higher energy costs sparking sticky inflation have been discussed and worried about aloud. Yet, again let’s decide to say even if U.S inflation numbers via the Consumer Price Index come in higher than expected this Wednesday via the coming CPI data, that doesn’t shut the door on the possibility the new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh won’t fight against an interest rate hike during the FOMC meeting next week. In other words it still seems rather unlikely – to me – that the new Federal Reserve Chairman is going to want to initiate higher interest rates the first month on the job. So what if there was another reason for the steep selling on the Nasdaq 100?

Not Paradise but Purgatory

The Nasdaq 100 actually has other questions which have been raised as possible fodder for its large selling this past Friday. Was it spawned because of profit taking by those who took advantage of the index’s fabulous rise knowing that many institutions had been front running the IPO of SpaceX which is scheduled to happen on the 12th of June – this Friday? 

Did large players who rode the wave of frontrunning by financial institutions up in the Nasdaq 100 since late March, decide to cash in profits. There is plenty of nervousness surrounding what will take place with SpaceX in the coming months and long-term via outlooks because of its rather inflated valuation which looks like it will be around 1.7+ Trillion plus at share values of $135.00 per share this coming Friday. 

Questions surrounding SpaceX’s price per sales rhetoric, this instead of price per earnings (because SpaceX is not making a net profit) is just one example. While denying Elon Musk’s genius and ability to create clamor for his companies has proven to be a losing proposition for many, doubters still remain. 

Folks might have cashed out winnings on Friday and decided to now wait on the sidelines to see where behavioral sentiment takes the Nasdaq 100. After two full months of paradise for the Nasdaq 100, a few days of purgatory and seeing which direction U.S indices go may be the right decision by folks who rely on clarity; this as the Middle East gets untangled (or becomes more complicated), the Federal Reserve offers insights on the 17th of June, and large financial institutions lead the way regarding investment decisions.

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