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AMT Top Ten Thoughts and Trepidations for the 22nd of March, 2026

by with No Comment AMT Top TenAssetsBasketballBehavioral SentimentCommoditiesEquitiesFeatured HighlightsFinancial InstitutionsInvestingRisk ManagementSpeculatorsWorld

The Return of AMT's Top 10 Illustrious 'Weekly' Salvos

First we must congratulate those who were willing to climb out from under their rocks (and bomb shelters) to offer musings. But let’s not digress….. to the AMT Top Ten List we go.

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AMT Top Ten for the 22nd of March 2026

10. March Madness: The NCAA Men’s Basketball Championship is underway. Some of the more hated schools remain catalysts. Our pick, the University of Arizona Wildcats. 

9. Bitcoin: Traversing above 68,000.00 USD currently almost feels like an accomplishment considering BTC/USD was near 63,000.00 in early February and again in early March. But do not blink your eyes. BTW, MSTR (the much loathed MicroStrategy by some AMT folks) went into this weekend below $136.00 per share.

8. South Africa: The USD/ZAR finished Friday near 16.96800 depending on bids and asks. On the 29th of January the currency pair was close to 15.65000. The South African Rand has done well over the long-term, but it is correlating to the broad Forex market concerns. Day traders should not take things personally, and accept that risk adverse moves – particularly as a major war rages is part of speculation. Near-term viewpoints can differ with long-term prospects. 

7. Not Glimmering: Gold at the start of the Iranian war was around $5,260.00, it has fallen to a mark of $4,491.00 this weekend. Showing gold’s speculative momentum beforehand hand, outmatched current values. Where next?

6. Silver: Above 120.00 USD briefly towards the end of January, the commodity is below 68.00. Wild betting has caused a drop of more than 42%. Too much exuberance.

5. Risks: U.S 10-Year Treasury Yields were below 3.95% on the 27th of February, via Friday’s close rates are above 4.38%. Can you spell f.e.a.r?

4. Safe Haven: The U.S Dollar Index which had been showing solid downside is near 99.500, on the 27th of February it was around 97.850 – a rather legitimate rise. 100.000 may be a target by some large players.

3. Shrieking Hyperbole: WTI Crude Oil prices are certainly getting plenty of attention. However, voices expressing concern about WTI touching higher values starts to sound like an auction in order to get attention for the circus barkers. WTI remains near 100.00 USD and this mark is a barometer. The price is high and it can go higher, but expressed fear about $140.00 and $200.00 should be treated with disdain in the near-term.

2. Iran War: The conflict in the Middle East cannot be downplayed, but it can become fearmongering by Cassandras’. The U.A.E is still open for business and other nations in the Middle East are functioning. Yes, there is noise and the situation can grow more dangerous. But the potential of freedom for the people of Iran is a solid goal, though some may find this naive until it is proven. Can it become fact?

1. Coming Attractions: U.S stock markets are rightfully nervous. Friday’s close for the S&P 500 has brought it into terrain that challenges its 200 day moving average. The combination of weak technical attitudes and behavioral sentiment is a dangerous mix. Risk management may not be enough for day traders to survive current conditions, sitting on the sideline instead of betting on equity indices intraday may be more efficient and less lethal.

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Digesting Holiday and Markets to Come as Fed Looms Next Week

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentCommodities

Digesting Holiday and Markets to Come as Fed Looms Next Week

Day traders trying to gauge markets may be feeling a bit of angst for the moment. Always wanting to participate when record highs are being made in the stock markets, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 remain under their respective apexes from late October and early November. Though the markets have produced gains recently, they have not come particularly easily for those who like to ride momentum waves. As always timeframes matter, it is often easier to make mistakes and be impatient when short-term wagers factor into decision making.

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S&P 500 Index Six Month Chart as of 2nd December 2025

Gold has done well the past couple of weeks, regaining its upwards traction, but also remains under its apex values. The Federal Reserve will release its FOMC interest rate decision on the 10th of December, and this is what many in the markets may be waiting for in order to make their last big bets for the year per speculative plays.

The Forex market like equities and commodities continue to provide choppy behavior. The ISM Manufacturing numbers from the U.S came in below expectations yesterday. Retail Sales data and Consumer Confidence numbers last week from the States came in below expectations too. There will be jobs statistics via the ADP report on Wednesday and an ISM Services figure. Thursday will see U.S weekly Unemployment Claims. Friday will provide a rather interesting clue for Forex traders and likely influence bond yields when the Core PCE Price Index reading is provided – which the Federal Reserve pays quite a bit of attention regarding their interest rate decisions. The Consumer Sentiment Preliminary University of Michigan data will also be seen on Friday.

As Tuesday starts, day traders should also beware that full market volumes will emerge, this after last week’s Thanksgiving holiday in the States and perhaps a slow return to offices yesterday. The markets will provide plenty of action over the next couple of weeks, before the inevitable Christmas and New Year’s trading doldrums begin.

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India and the U.S Govt Shutdown: Quick Market Thoughts

by with No Comment AMT MarketsAssetsFeatured Highlights

India and the U.S Govt Shutdown: Quick Market Thoughts

President Trump has been ramping up his claims that India is no longer going to buy Russian oil, he made a statement regarding this belief yesterday once again. As the White House threatened to initiate tougher sanctions against India, there seems to have been some movement towards a reconciliation between the two powerful nations.

The Trump administration is clearly trying to limit the amount of purchases of Russian oil by India to increase economic pressures on Russia, and reportedly India may be starting to actually buy less oil. India has certainly not stopped buying Russian oil in a maximum ‘fait accompli’, but if the nation continues to show a willingness to purchase less energy resources from Russia, this will go a long way in preserving a good U.S and India association. A stronger relationship between the U.S and India can achieve a vital economic and military correlation for the both nations. Improved friendlier tones from New Delhi and Washington D.C appear to have reassured investors in the Indian equity markets via highs currently being seen on Nifty 50, which are now within sight of apex values from late September last year.

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Nifty 50 One Year Chart as of 23rd October 2025

India is a vital and important part of U.S policy as it attempts to also create pressure on China too. By maintaining political and business dealings with India, the U.S can and should look upon this joint relationship as a vast long-term strategic interest. India understands this as well. The ability of India and the U.S to remain ‘friendly’ allies, and the prospect of creating a vigorous economic and military partnership should be one of the U.S government’s essential missions.

India does have strong connections to Russia the past handful of decades politically and economically via its non-aligned status. India will certainly maintain its dialogue and sometimes cooperative dealings with Russia. However, if India and the U.S maintain a solid relationship with the prospect of increasing their economic and political ties this could substantially change dynamics on the Asian continent.

U.S Government Shutdown Since the 1st of October

The U.S government has now been shutdown for over three weeks as Republicans and Democrats remain stubborn about compromise. Both sides have made the shutdown a political game. While each party claims they are doing what is best for the nation and preach to their collective voting bases, the stalemate could start to have uglier effects regarding wages not paid for many U.S employees on the 1st of November.

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Dow Jones 30 One Year Chart as of 23rd October 2025

A lack of government salaries not being dispersed will cause an economic hit via consumer spending and create at a minimum some temporary damage for GDP numbers. Remarkably, and to be clear about this potential impact, Wall Street hasn’t seemed to care yet, but this could start to change. As the U.S economy rumbles powerfully forward without a major downturn in the major equity indices, politicians appear to be comfortable acting like spoiled children on both sides of the aisles engaged in accusing the other side of misdeeds.

Likely to start changing attitudes among Republicans and Democrats in the next two weeks are the coming Federal Reserve’s FOMC Statement during the end of October, and voting results via key political races in the first week of November.

Wall Street wants clarity regarding interest rate outlooks for November, December and early next year. Investors might not get a clear picture from the Fed next week, taking into consideration the Federal Reserve will not have up to date official U.S economic data because of the government shutdown. Meaning the Fed will likely issue a 25 basis point rate cut on the 29th of October and say it is uncertain about the coming few months because it does not have enough inflation, employment and GDP information to form a concrete opinion. The joke of coarse being the Fed seldom seems to have a strong opinion, but now can use the government shutdown as an excuse.

And now for contemplation, let’s look at the election in NYC for Mayor. A bona fide socialist may get elected in New York City who carries the historically misguided and dangerous wisdom of a Marxist. The economic and social practices of Marxism have proven utter failures for over one hundred years consistently. If NYC suffers a victory from the socialist candidate running as a Democrat, Wall Street and many financial institutions based in the city will not react favorably.

In the meantime, U.S equity indices remain elevated, cautious and within sight of record highs. The Nasdaq, Dow Jones and S&P along with other financial assets are producing choppy dangerous conditions for day traders who are attempting to wager on daily changes and suffering from the cautious behavioral sentiment being generated. Investors who look towards the mid and long-term are likely more comfortable, but are certainly keeping an eye on what is going to transpire over the next two weeks. Gold and Silver have come off their speculative highs. Forex continues to create volatile conditions as financial institutions appear unready to make bold predictions about what the Federal Reserve will do into January 2026.
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Trading Thud Ending Last Week and Early August Insights

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

Trading Thud Ending Last Week and Early August Insights

The EUR/USD is near 1.15650 early this morning. The USD/JPY around 147.850. Forex has provided fast reversals and most major currency pairs are within well established known realms, but caution prevails. Friday’s U.S jobs numbers before going into weekend provided additional mud to filter through for those seeking clear outlooks. Were the employment numbers rigged by the Bureau of Labor Statistics?

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EUR/USD Three Month Chart as of 4th August 2025

Questionable economic statistics have become an open sore spot for some analysts in the U.S, this has been a problem since the financial crisis of 2007/08 and ensuing years when politically expedient numbers were rumored to be in use so the Federal Reserve and U.S Treasury could work in a more comfortable manner. Let’s just say there are actual reasons why and how economic statistics could be used to hurt and help policies. For some evidence take a look at the art of revisions that has been practiced with key economic data the past handful of years. Financial institutions now need to consider the possibility that numbers cannot be trusted, interpret reports, try to decipher reality and consider impact.

Effect on the Federal Reserve is a big question. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell continues to preach uncertainty and say a wait and see approach is needed because of implications regarding tariffs. However, conspiracy theories are also somewhat blown out of the water regarding the recent jobs numbers, because the lackluster results will actually put pressure on the Fed to cut rates in September in order to help spur on a better jobs market. So in other words, financial institutions, big investors and day traders are back to square one.

The ISM Services Purchasing Managers Index stats will be published tomorrow for the U.S, but this report is likely to be a mere ingredient that affects the marketplace. Behavioral sentiment will remain the cornerstone in Forex, equity indices, Treasuries and commodities. August is typically a rather calm month of trading taking into consideration that holidays are being taken by many market participants, but as the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and the Dow 30 remain elevated and capable of achieving new record highs, the USD creates chaos regarding outlook influenced by a Federal Reserve that is now in a difficult spot, and tariff implications are contemplated it would be wise to keep an eye on all near-term outcomes.

Technical trading and computer generated algos will factor into conditions as psychological levels are challenged and perceptions are debated. Has the global marketplace grown comfortable to the tactics used by President Trump? While it is easy to say yes, there are still plenty of reasons to remain concerned, this because White House policy seemingly has the ability to shift without notice.

Which has helped produce what may be the golden rule that develops under the current circumstances. Stay alert, stay optimistic but practice caution. Financial institutions have always practiced the art of realpolitik behind closed doors to chase profits, but they must remain vigilant to fast reactions caused from the potential sudden fear of shifting doctrine. President Trump’s rather swirling mix of laissez faire enterprise, and his stark ability to express anger at those who stand in his way or disagree with him do make for a new trading reality. Cautious optimism is likely to rule the world of investment and speculation going forward.

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India Insider: Concern IT Empire is at Risk in Age of AI

by with No Comment Artificial IntelligenceBusinessFeatured Highlights

India Insider: Concern IT Empire is at Risk in Age of AI

When China’s DeepSeek announced its Generative AI program as a rival to U.S based ChatGPT, the world paid close attention. In fact, Nasdaq bellwether stock Nvidia, the world’s most valuable company, took a hit because the DeepSeek product was made with less expensive chip processors compared to ChatGPT’s infrastructure, which uses Nvidia’s GPU technology.

In North America and Europe, DeepSeek’s rollout was met with much surprise and intrigue. And the true ‘poster child’ of India’s post-liberalization era, the IT (Information Technology) sector has been facing its own challenges and was also caught off guard. India’s IT sector employs some 5.3 million people and helps maintain its current account balance sheet by earning crucial foreign exchange reserves. The top four major IT companies have a combined market cap of $300 billion USD, larger than India’s richest man Mukesh Ambani’s Reliance Industries, which stands around $238 billion USD.

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Nifty IT Index One Year Chart as of 29th July 2025

India’s IT Business Model and Artificial Intelligence

Indian IT companies operate on a model of software servicing for offshore clients, typically via medium to long-term contracts. Their business operations are embedded across the globe thanks to affordable pricing and the quality of services provided by Indian software engineers. Now, this model is being threatened by the rise of Generative AI and taking it lightly would be a serious mistake by India.

Shares of major IT companies ­- TCS, Infosys, Wipro, and HCL have delivered lackluster returns since their post pandemic rally. Since Covid high valuations amid deal pessimism were a concern. Now those worries are amplified by AI and the disruption it brings to their business models. Software exporters remain the worst performers, the Nifty IT index is down 18% year-to-date, underperforming the broader index consequentially.

The recent release of Q1 fiscal year 2026 numbers from these four IT companies have been met with skepticism regarding forecasted outlook. Analysts noted that Indian IT firms are grappling with margin pressures amid persistent macroeconomic headwinds and rising threats from AI-driven productivity improvements. In response, companies have started to protect their margins with layoffs, TCS (Tata Consultancy Services) shed around 2% of its workforce this past weekend which could affect more than 12,000 jobs.

Time For India’s IT Sector to Become Proactive

Pricing models that IT companies charge customers are changing from long to short-term flexible contracts like ‘pay as you go’ over traditional fixed annual licensing models. Despite changing CEOs in several of these companies over the last few years, animal spirits are failing thus far to innovate AI products that can enhance the bottom line. Instead, companies prefer share buybacks and paying stellar dividends to appease the shareholders rather than to invest in R&D especially when their core model is under threat.

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Hang Seng Index One Year Chart as of 29th July 2025

The euphoria surrounding India’s $5.4 trillion equity market is cooling in 2025, amid concerns over slowing earnings growth, elevated valuations, and tariff related uncertainty. At the same time, sentiment towards Hong Kong’s listed Chinese shares are improving with global fund managers rapidly reallocating capital to that market. The Hang Seng Index has delivered an impressive 27% return year-to-date. Meanwhile, India’s stock market still lacks depth for investors seeking meaningful exposure to the booming Artificial Intelligence theme.

Indian IT companies excel at scaling and delivering AI solutions for global clients, but they do not own the core models, platforms, or consumer data needed to become true AI disruptors like China’s tech giants. The industry contributes approximately 7.5% to India’s GDP and remains the primary employment avenue for engineering graduates. It’s time for India’s IT sector to proactively address the growing AI threat posed by global competitors.

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The Fed: Beating a Dead Horse as the Bulls want to Run

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

The Fed: Beating a Dead Horse as the Bulls want to Run

Yesterday’s lackluster and underperforming GDP results from the U.S highlights our often discussed doubts surrounding the Federal Reserve. While Jerome Powell definitely has a right to be ‘uncertain’ and express his concerns regarding sudden inflation emerging, he has also proven to be wrong. The Fed should have begun cutting the Federal Funds Rate three months ago.

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10-Year U.S Treasury Yields Three Month Chart as of 27th June 2025

Although Powell may not be a fan of President Trump, the Fed Chairman and the FOMC has the ability to be more nimble in this era. Instead of being passive about interest rates, the Fed could have lowered borrowing costs and helped spur on the U.S economy months ago instead of watching GDP numbers falter.

For all of the consternation regarding potential tariff pratfalls, the effect from President Trump’s policies have not caused massive inflation. The Fed can begin cutting rates even before the next FOMC meeting in late July, but they will not. In fact, the Fed should now cut the Federal Funds Rate by 0.50% in late July, but again they won’t. We will be lucky to get a 25 point basis cut.

The Federal Reserve remains too passive and acts as if it doesn’t have data technology which can be more proactive. Instead, Fed Chairman Powell chooses to act as if cutting the Fed Funds Rate is an academic exercise and can be done via a polite semester like manner akin to a report card. Dangerously, the U.S is paying an exorbitant amount of interest on long-term Treasuries and short-term Notes. Lower borrowing costs would also help U.S consumers. Jerome Powell doesn’t seem to care about these factors, which raises the consideration regarding his loyalties.

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U.S Dollar Index Five Year Chart as of 27th June 2025

In recent weeks there have been at least two FOMC members who have suggested that interest rates need to be cut sooner rather than later. And there are some financial institutions who are clamoring for aggressive interest rate cuts throughout the calendar year and into 2026 in order to jumpstart the U.S economy, this includes Goldman Sachs and UBS. Signs of evidence that interest rate cuts will develop can be seen in the 10-Year Treasury yields which have been eroding recently. Some may claim this is a false narrative and that it is merely risk premium starting to be discounted. Nevertheless yields have lowered in the past month.

Yes, President Trump speaks loudly and delivers brawling negotiations. July 9th is another deadline for tariff agreements. However, financial institutions and many governments have learned to cope with President Trump’s backstreet tactics, which academics like Jerome Powell are not fond of particularly. U.S stock markets are hovering near highs, but still cautious because they are waiting on impetus from the Federal Reserve.

If the Fed fails to deliver an impactful FOMC Statement in late July this will not be greeted well by investors. Many believe the Fed needs to react, and it is quite apparent the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and even the Dow 30 are positioning for gates to be opened allowing for a bullish stampede. The USD has been weaker too the past few months as large commercial players anticipate lower U.S borrowing costs. The time for the Fed and Chairman Powell to act is now, making it clear that cuts to the Federal Funds Rate are coming.

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Market Volatility Concerns While Deflecting Noise From Afar

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

Market Volatility Concerns While Deflecting Noise From Afar

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S&P 500 Six Month Chart as of 27th February 2025

The phrase if it bleed it leads is a fixture regarding the world of media. People and their companies want your attention. The addition of Donald Trump to the White House helps those that are content to see him in office, but it also helps those who oppose him because it gives his detractors a centerpiece to a lot of their ‘insights’. Perspectives abound and while watching the financial markets, we are bombarded with loud opinions formed by folks vying for our time. In many cases they are also trying to attract our money.

Wall Street has seen choppy results the past week, but speculators need to remain objective and not allow distractions to destroy their ability to gauge the marketplace. When looked upon with a mid-term reference it is rather easy to define the results upwards in the stock indices from the U.S have been rather good. There is no guarantee you are going to make money speculating. Losses occur and they do not only happen to speculators but they happen to investors too.

Timeframe speculative management and separating the noise from facts is difficult enough under normal circumstances. However, because of the notion if it ‘bleeds it leads’ which is dominating media for the moment, we are within a cycle when influencers can use headlines to catch our attention. Perhaps they believe what they say, perhaps they are trying to guide us towards a product, or perhaps they simply enjoy predicting misfortune.

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EUR/USD Six Month Chart as of 27th February 2025

Yesterday during President Trump’s cabinet meeting when asked about the E.U, Trump stated a proclamation of love for Europe, but then added that the E.U was a special economic case and has been getting away with a lot of things like expensive tariffs on the import of U.S cars. He also said the E.U was created to compete with the U.S – though this needs to be taken into context and that Trump meant this only as a trade competitor.

Nearly as quickly as Trump made his statement, some began to use this loose remark as a narrative that the EUR/USD was struggling because of these new worries. Fears about a massive trade war were sounded from some legitimate but overly contrived media sources. Yet, a trade war between the U.S and E.U isn’t going to happen ladies and gentlemen.

The fact is that the EUR/USD has been struggling for a handful of months and is starting to show signs that support levels are durable. The greater likelihood is that financial institutions believe the EUR/USD is oversold and have a bullish perspective for the currency pair over the mid-term. Yes, Europe continues to produce lackluster economic data, but a lot of the value in the EUR/USD has had risk adverse concerns priced in already. Looking for upside from the currency pair around its current levels is not farfetched. Downside risks look limited compared to upside potential.

Once again the financial media who want your attention were given click bait material to get you to react. Day traders need to understand they are constantly being sold not only false narratives but false opportunities too. Speculators looking for profits with quick hitting trades can make money, but many times they lose money because they are working in conditions in which they do not have enough control of their emotions. Day traders should clearly understand they are operating within a gambling universe when they attempt to trade Forex, equities, Indices, commodities and needless to say cryptocurrency.

Traders must work on improving their decision making process. They need to take into consideration their perceptions of the financial landscape, but also understand what their counterparts are thinking too. Financial institutions certainly trade for short-term results, but they are also operating with mid-term outlooks. The likelihood that they are worried about an onslaught of tariffs from the Trump administration is contained by the realization that the current President of the U.S negotiates using tough methods. The bombastic hyperbole of President Trump’s business techniques are not loved by everyone, but they often get the job done regarding his intended desires.

So what should you do? First of all relax with a deep breath. The world is not coming to an end. The financial landscape is not facing a cataclysmic scenario. Many volatile financial events have been seen throughout time. Traders need to understand that the market action on the SP500, Dow30, and Nasdaq are vulnerable to selloffs occasionally that can last for unknown durations which makes daily speculative wagering prone to significant cash losses. This is why investors who have different perspectives regarding timeframes and take a slow and steady approach often come out better than folks who are merely gambling.

Day traders need to eliminate as much noise as possible. This is done with solid risk taking tactics using methods which involve knowledge gained through experience, and knowing that not everything they are hearing is meant to help. Practice a trading mantra by having realistic price targets, chosen timeframes, conservative leverage; using entry orders helps, adding stop loss and take profit orders to get out of positions are vital too.

The mid-term outlook for the EUR/USD and the stock markets likely remains bullish in the eyes of financial institutions. There are many factors in trading, and the virtues of patience and knowledge help considerably. Again, remain calm because while the financial markets often react to shortcomings via human fallibility, they frequently become optimistic once again.

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Nasdaq 100: U.S Exceptionalism and Competition from China

by with No Comment AI & Machine LearningAMT MarketsFeatured Highlights

Nasdaq 100: U.S Exceptionalism and Competition from China

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Nasdaq 100 Six Month Chart as of 28th January 2025

The losses on the Nasdaq 100 yesterday were bad. Wall Street participants were reminded that technology is and always has been a competitive landscape. It is rather remarkable that the lesson being given to capitalists came from China which is led by a Communist government. U.S Exceptionalism which has been spoken about in loud tones the past week because of President Trump’s return to the White House has been put on notice.

There will be additional bad days on Wall Street, but the idea that the Nasdaq 100 now faces an existential threat from DeepSeek is farfetched. Traders must take a healthful breath and remember yesterday’s loses while bad were not catastrophic. Premium froth from Nvidia and other companies saw some of their likely overvalued worth selloff on Monday. Perhaps more will follow today, but tech and innovation companies have always faced a competitive landscape.

Was yesterday an indication there is a crack in U.S Exceptionalism via technology that is going to be long lasting? Companies must always compete to be the best, if DeepSeek’s entry into the news cycle was a ‘sputnik’ moment as some claim, folks need to remember the U.S bounced back rather nicely and eventually outpaced the Russians – who still remain a tech competitor regarding rockets and space.

This weekend’s news from China has provided another moment the world realizes technological gains are often hard fought. While many media pundits act with hyperbolic noise and state vivid concerns about the future of the technological competition between China and companies around the globe, the race for innovation has and always will exist.

AI for the moment is grabbing the headlines, but Artificial Intelligence is also a buzzword – it is marketing usage by those who are trying to entice investors with big promises, except machine learning has been around for decades. Progress the last few years has been significant, but AI isn’t ready to make humans into a new species. Competitive battles in equity markets centering on innovation via semiconductors, quantum computing, robotics, IoT, biotech, transportation, and other sectors have been relevant and will remain this way.

Monday’s results on the Nasdaq 100 and harsh falls for some tech giants like Nvidia is a reminder that while speculating and investing in one company is a potential way to make solid returns, investing in indices and a large group of diverse companies often produces steadier yields. Yes, yesterday’s losses on the Nasdaq 100 were bad, but they were less critical compared to the losses Nvidia suffered. And let’s remember Nvidia will survive yesterday’s declines.

After Monday’s Nasdaq 100 decline, today will prove a another test of sentiment. Premium froth in companies such as Nvidia that sold off, will now cause people to question fundamental analysis of tech and innovation. Bubbles sometimes burst. The remainder of this week will be a solid test of behavioral sentiment. A battle between large speculators and investors will also be seen. Those who plan on cashing out of the market near-term to book profits may find that investors with long-term ambitions still win the race.

Perceptions are constantly being shaped, we should always be questioning the ability of technology which is proven versus marketing mayhem that is hot air. Artificial Intelligence has had a gravitational pull on the investment landscape. The froth created by investment into the AI sphere is important, but it only one part of many combined technologies constantly developing.

Many companies claiming they are AI centric have no real basis to make the statement. Semiconductor companies have led a lot of the gains in Nasdaq’s run higher because they are the ones supplying micro processing to companies that need the technology to build machine learning capabilities, China has always been a competitor and yesterday provided a wake up call for those who forgot. A dose of reality has been delivered once again to Wall Street.

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Trump Bounce Potentially Coming This Week in Equity Indices

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

Trump Bounce Potentially Coming This Week in Equity Indices

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S&P 500 Three Month Chart as of 19th January 2025

Trump: U.S equity markets will be closed Monday for MLK Day. Upwards momentum developing this week as Trump White House takes power would not be surprising.

Retail traders need to know that U.S equity markets will be shuttered on the 20th of January because of the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday. Importantly tomorrow is also the United States Presidential Inauguration. Donald Trump will retake power of the Executive Branch of the U.S government at noon in Washington D.C as he is sworn in as the 47th President. U.S stock markets have produced choppy results the past few months but still remain in sight of highs. It would not be a shock to see optimistic momentum develop on Tuesday in the U.S stock markets near-term.

Yes, financial institutions have known Trump will be taking the White House for two and a half months and have had plenty of time to already react regarding their outlooks. However, from a behavioral sentiment standpoint it is easy to deduce that Trump’s coming inauguration speech tomorrow will deliver a confirmation of his economic policy intentions. Financial institutions near-term may produce optimistic upwards trajectory and they may have psychological targets which take into account late November and early December 2024 highs in the S&P 500.

The coming week will also be light on U.S economic data, except for the weekly Unemployment Claims on Thursday, Flash Manufacturing PMI and Existing Home Sales on Friday. Meaning the week will be driven largely on sentiment generated via President’s Trump’s actions in the coming days. Trump is expected to deliver a series of Executive Orders which will affect outlooks and likely be reflective of his campaign rhetoric spoken the past year.

Retail traders should not bet blindly on upside via CFDs for the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow 30. Near-term prices are not guaranteed to move higher, but there is reason to suspect buying might prove positive. An interesting barometer for price action will certainly be seen via future contracts early on Tuesday morning as financial institutions return to full volume and get set to return after a long holiday weekend. Risk taking tactics should include price targets that are realistic and not be leveraged wildly.

Forex conditions may prove volatile this week, and traders need to remain cautious about betting against the strength of the USD which has been ferocious the past three months. U.S Federal Reserve outlook remains murky and cautious, and nervousness regarding Trump’s intended foreign policy changes including trade negotiations still have to be fully demonstrated. USD centric risk bullishness likely still has ammunition which will be displayed in the coming days.

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Wonders for the 12th of April 2024

by with No Comment AMT MarketsArtificial IntelligenceFeatured Highlights

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Wonders for the 12th of April 2024

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10. Free Press: Brazil and the Lula de Silva government are cracking down on dissent in social media. ‘X’ – formerly Twitter – led by Elon Musk is fighting back and refusing to cooperate as Brazilian ‘leadership’ attempts to intimidate the ‘loyal opposition’ in the legislature.

9. GROOT: Nvidia is working on ‘humanoid’ robotics. Project GROOT was presented by Jensen Huang at the GTC Conference. The synergy between machine learning, semiconductors and robotics is an evolution taking place before our eyes. Tesla is involved in similar research as it works on Optimus.

8. Hot Chocolate: Speculation in Cocoa has brought the commodity above 10,400.00 USD per metric ton as of this writing. Questions about gravity and hypersonic speculative values are logical at this juncture.

7. Seclusion: Do humans still need each other? People are relying on their mobile devices for social interactions. Robotics with AI capabilities will make our existence potentially more lonely. Open source software DOBB-E will be part of this future as household chores are taken care of by ‘machines’.

6. Iran: Those with holiday excursion plans which include Teheran this weekend may need to check on ticket availability due to the possibility of flight cancellations.

5. Fed Liberty: President Joe Biden this week spoke about an interest rate cut coming from the Federal Reserve this year, yet Consumer Price Index statistics are demonstrating escalating expenses. Current U.S government leaders may want to spend less on ‘vote buying’ via student loan forgiveness and think about conservative fiscal practices. Why should Americans who choose not to attend universities pay for those who did via higher taxes? Are Fed and Treasury officials still independent?

4. Risk Averse: Gold is within sight of 2,400.00 USD this morning. In the meantime U.S bond yields have inverted completely except for the 30-Year issue. Financial institutions are showing nervous behavioral sentiment.

3. USD Centric: Forex has seen reactive trading this week as financial institutions begin to conclude the U.S Federal Reserve’s monetary policy ‘over time’ will remain disturbingly difficult and full of doublespeak.

2. Caution: Mixed results are flourishing in the major U.S stock indices as the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 touch late March values, and the Dow Jones 30 has returned to February levels. Higher than anticipated interest rates are causing turbulence.

1. Energy Illusions: As the prices of food, transportation and housing escalates isn’t it time governments start to question their ‘green’ policies which are making the costs of energy production more expensive? We all want a clean planet, but logical strategies must be applied to create efficient use of resources.

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Spiders for the 1st of March 2024

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Spiders for the 1st of March 2024

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10. Palystes: Huntsman spiders known in South Africa as ‘rain spiders’ are nocturnal and visit indoors, sometimes causing horror for those stumbling through hallways in the middle of the night. But it is better than a baboon entering the house.

9. Victor Wembanyama: Last night’s stat line included 28 points, 13 rebounds, 5 blocks, 5 3pts made, 7 assists, 2 steals in less than 33 minutes played. The rookie is already one of the best NBA players. Btw, the Spurs beat the Thunder also.

8. Tech: Chinese cars are now in the crosshairs of U.S politicians who are worried the ‘smart’ vehicles can collect sensitive data from Americans.

7. Crypto: Bitcoin above 61,000.00 USD, Ethereum over 3,300.00, and Binance Coin testing 400.00 even as the company remains under U.S legal shadows. How much air can the balloons withstand?

6. Putin’s Nuclear Threats: In a world with escalating geo-political tension, the Russian leader remains determined and energetic while playing ‘war poker’ against Europe.

5. U.S Data: Core PCE Index numbers yesterday met expectations, but the previous month’s outcome was revised downwards. Today a Consumer Sentiment reading comes from the University of Michigan. This week’s U.S data has mostly been pleasantly ‘weaker’.

4. Central Banks: Fed ‘watchers’ are likely feeling more comfortable this morning regarding the possibility of a late spring ‘thaw’ in U.S interest rates. Jerome Powell will testify in front of the Senate next Thursday. The ECB will release their Monetary Policy Statement on the 7th of March also. Next FOMC pronouncements will be on the 20th of March.

3. Gold: The precious metal is near 2050.00 USD, this after yesterday’s U.S inflation report, gold could remain volatile today. Some speculators may be looking for additional value to develop.

2. Forex: FX has been a constant battle the past two months, but patient traders with mid-term perspectives may be anticipating their weaker USD targets to trend more steadily.

1. Equities: Many global stock indices are achieving record levels as bullish behavioral sentiment creates upwards momentum. S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and the Composite, Dow 30, Nikkei 225 and the DAX Index are flirting with higher values.

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Forex and Equities Storm: Crucial Data will Impact Markets

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

Forex and Equities Storm: Crucial Data will Impact Markets

Today will start out with a rather important consumer report from the U.S and day traders should stay alert. It is easy to point to every day and week as being a crucial circumstance for speculators, because that is what gets their juices moving and gets them to wager in the markets.

However, given the rather choppy conditions in Forex seen since the last week of December and pointing to the results of the Consumer Price Index on the 13th of February and the storms created in FX, traders hopefully have enough muscle memory to remember how they felt in the midst of the whipsaw conditions which were experienced only two weeks ago.

Central bank outlooks are fragile among analysts and financial institutions. Simply put this week’s data could prove to be more important than the CPI numbers. Consumer sentiment, GDP, and inflation statistics are all on the U.S roll call this week.

Other geographies will make news too and impact global markets. Last week’s impressive results from Nvidia created another massive wave of positive momentum in equity indices. The Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 and the Dow Jones 30 all have hit record values. Japan’s Nikkei 225 has surpassed record heights.

Yet, other barometers do highlight caution abounds too, U.S Treasuries yields have edged upwards and are touching values which show there is nervousness regarding monetary policy from the U.S Federal Reserve. This week’s data will deliver more insights for investors, and Treasuries are certainly going to react to the economic reports.

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Gold One Month Chart as of 27th of February 2024

Gold has edged higher in the past week and is around the 2034.00 USD mark as of this writing. The slight climb above the 2020.00 ratio which has worked like a magnet recently, indicates some traders may be leaning optimistically towards a weaker USD mid and long-term. These folks may be proven correct, but day traders should note that the 2030.00 ratio in gold is below highs seen in December, January and early February – which indicates nervousness. If day traders do not believe gold acts as an inverse barometer for the USD, simply look at the results of trading when the stronger than expected CPI numbers were released on the 13th of February. Gold fell to a low near 1985.00 on the 14th, this was not a coincidence.

Again, while it is easy to sound alarms and jump up and down and proclaim every week important for day traders, the acknowledgement that this week’s economic data is significant should not be treated as hyperbole. You have been warned.

Monday, 26th of February, U.S New Home Sales – yesterday’s results showed another decline in the housing market, and the previous month’s number was revised downwards. The outcome may point to concerns about U.S mortgage rates which remain stubbornly high for those considering purchases.

Tuesday, 27th of February, U.S Durable Goods Orders – a rather large drop of minus -4.9% is expected. The Core data however is expected to produce a rise of 0.2%. These numbers will be a good precursor for the important consumer sentiment which will follow one and a half hours later.

Tuesday, 27th of February, U.S Consumer Confidence via the Conference Board – the results of the important readings have shown intriguing gains since late fall in 2023. While improvement in sentiment has been recorded, revisions lower have also been seen in the previous three reports. The outcome of today’s report should be treated carefully. If another higher reading is produced this may create some positive momentum in the USD momentarily.

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NZD/USD Three Month Chart as of 27th February 2024

Wednesday, 28th of February, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Official Cash Rate and Monetary Policy Statement – while many Forex traders will be sleeping when the RBNZ makes its important pronouncement, New Zealand inflation data has remained strong and a conservative government is in charge politically that is pro-business. The question is if the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will go against the grain of other global central banks and actually increase their interest rate while others seem to be adamant about trying to become less aggressive. While many analysts believe the RBNZ will sit on its hands and act according to the whims of others, if an interest rate hike is announced global Forex traders should take note because it would be a signal that central bankers are uneasy regarding their rhetoric and not in agreement.

Wednesday, 28th of February, U.S Preliminary Gross Domestic Product – a gain of 3.3% is the expectation from many analysts. The previous reading was stronger than anticipated. If growth numbers in the U.S come in higher than estimated the USD will react with strength. The Federal Reserve would like to see the outcome meet the expectation or come in below, this so the U.S central bank can consider reducing the Federal Funds Rate late this spring or in early summer. However, if a significantly strong growth number is demonstrated this would cause turmoil in Forex.

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EUR/USD Six Month Chart as of 27th February 2024

Thursday, 29th of February, Germany Preliminary Consumer Price Index – a slight gain is expected in the inflation number. The EUR/USD has been struggling as stagflation concerns shadow the European Union. A higher inflation result will not be welcomed by the ECB, which would prefer to cut interest rates sooner rather than later. The German number should be watched and it will cause an impact if there is a surprise. The EUR/USD has been turbulent and is likely to produce more choppy conditions depending on the parade of data results this week.

Thursday, 29th of February, U.S Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index – traders who have felt the previous economic reports already have caused intense reactions this week should brace for this inflation report. A result of 0.4% is expected. The Federal Reserve admits this is one of the most important publications that it monitors. This means financial institutions react to this report too. If inflation were to come in higher than expected, like the CPI results from two weeks ago, this would essentially kill off expectations of a May interest rate cut from the Fed. The USD will react to this report and so will U.S Treasury yields, which means equity indices will also be affected. A weaker inflation report is being wished for by many market participants, but will this be the result?

Friday, 1st of March, China Manufacturing PMI – not to beat a dead horse, but China’s economic data has been poor and this report will be viewed as important. Another negative outcome is expected. Transparency regarding economic numbers from China is a worry for investors. Conditions in China are being watched and it is important for traders to eliminate bias regarding their perspectives. China may be struggling, but its importance as an economic power is still very much in evidence. Foreign direct investment into China is diminishing, but plenty of investors still have ‘skin in the game’ and will be affected by the manufacturing reports.

Friday, 1st of March, U.S Manufacturing PMI via ISM – a slightly improved manufacturing reading is expected. However, because of the U.S data releases from the previous days, the results may be looked at only momentarily and not cause much of a reaction from market participants. Traders may be looking forward to the weekend after this week’s economic publications in order to rest.