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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Postings for the 5th of April 2024

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Postings for the 5th of April 2024

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10. Petrichor: The pleasant smell after a rain has fallen following a long dry spell which elicits earth’s fragrance. The Fed is likely hoping for this sensation via ‘weaker’ Non-Farm Employment Change numbers today. In December the Federal Reserve spoke about data signals needed in order to cut interest rates. If jobs statistics are stronger than anticipated, there will be no ‘petrichor’ for the Fed.

9. Underreported: Five engineers from China on their way to work for the Dasu dam project they participated, were killed in a ‘suicide’ terrorist attack in Pakistan on the 26th of March. Terror attacks in Pakistan on Chinese involved with infrastructure ‘Economic Corridor’ work have been increasing.

8. Qubits: Microsoft and Quantinuum recently announced they have made breakthroughs regarding quantum computing research reliability. Results have shown 14,000 ‘test routines’ without errors. The emergence of quantum technology approaches.

7. Intrinsic Value: Cocoa is near 9640.0 USD per metric ton as of this morning and remains speculatively energetic. Bitcoin is slightly below 67,000 USD and continues to ‘beat’ the notion that intrinsic value is important.

6. Precious: Gold prices have ‘fallen’ below 2300.00 USD per ounce, and is near 2289.00 for the moment, but the metal is shining as crowds admire its ability to create a safe haven.

5. WTI Crude Oil: Middle East news is rumbling and hyperbole is resonating, the price of the commodity is over 86.40 USD per this writing. A calm weekend, and peaceful end to Ramadan this coming Tuesday might help calm nerves. Higher oil prices will not help global inflation.

4. Forex: The USD/JPY has started to experience waves of volatility and has recently challenged long-term highs. Bottom line is the notion that large players are positioning for today’s U.S data which will affect all financial assets as USD centric power resounds.

3. Equities: The U.S major stock indices are beginning their day near lows not seen since the 15th of March for the Dow 30, and the 19th of March for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite. Nervous?

2. Bonds Watch: U.S Treasuries need to be monitored as the 5, 7, and 10-Years Notes respond to nervous investors and fears of a new ‘inversion’. Having come off of high yields a couple of days ago, doesn’t mean all is well as values languish near late September 2023 technical realms.

1. Data: Recent chatter from many Fed FOMC members have created anxious investors. Vivid reactions will occur after the Non-Farm Employment Change and Average Hourly Earnings. Bluntly, today’s jobs reports are crucial and the Fed would like the results to be weaker than anticipated in order to consider cutting interest rates. However, if hiring comes in stronger, it would be a sign of a resilient U.S economy and would ignite more USD strength. The first half hour following the jobs numbers may look counter-intuitive regarding price action as financial institutions adjust their trading positions.

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USD and the Fed: Parade of Jobs Data Ready to Make Noise

by with No Comment AMT MarketsEconomic CalendarFeatured Highlights

USD and the Fed: Parade of Jobs Data Ready to Make Noise

U.S data last week created landmines for Forex speculators and the Federal Reserve. Global financial markets return to full action today following the long holiday weekend. Growth and inflation numbers from the States last week provided more unsettling results for financial institutions. While Forex has proven difficult for many traders, the major equity indexes are flirting with highs but also running into some intermittent headwinds.

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US Dollar Index Six Month Chart as of 2nd April 204

In December of 2023 the Fed was interpreted as having confirmed it would be able to cut the Federal Funds Rate during the 2024 calendar year rather consistently. Dovish policy had been anticipated by financial institutions which began to sell the USD aggressively in November. But by the end of the Christmas week the USD had essentially hit lows in many major currency pairs, and as January started reversals intensified.

The last three months of trading has produced choppy conditions in Forex, but one thing is clear – financial institutions no longer believe the Federal Reserve will be able to aggressively cut the Federal Funds Rate. The Fed has now begun to show signs that it is nervous regarding U.S economic data, this as growth via GDP numbers has remained firm, inflation sticky, and consumers resilient. Clouds shadow Forex and day traders have been hampered by a lack of solid trends.

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Gold Six Month Chart as of 2nd April 2024

Gold is trading near record price levels. The fact that the precious metal is touching all-time values as the USD has been strong has flustered some speculators. But traders need to remember Gold is affected by large players, including nations, that may be hedging USD bets and preparing for political instability. The price of Gold may underscore belief the U.S Fed will have to cut rates at least a couple of times this year no matter the economic facts on the ground, because this is an election year and if the central bank doesn’t deliver on its ‘promise’ jobs at the Fed may be at stake.

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WTI Crude Oil One Month Chart as of 2nd April 2024

Not making anything easier for Federal Reserve policy is the higher price of WTI Crude Oil which has reached the 84.00 USD per barrel price. If energy costs go higher this will not help the fight against inflation. OPEC will be conducting a meeting this week. As an aside the price of Cocoa per metric ton is now over 10,000.00 USD, which is more expensive than Copper. While the price of Cocoa is not a game changer for global financial markets, the higher price will make chocolate more expensive, which some traders may find disagreeable as they try to relax and watch their speculative wagers while trying to nibble on their favorite snack.

Monday, 1st of April, U.S ISM Manufacturing – both the Purchasing Managers Index reading and the Price numbers came in higher than expected. The stronger results show the U.S economy remains better than anticipated by the Federal Reserve, which has been counting on its higher interest rate to slow down growth and inflation.

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EUR/USD Six Month Chart as of 2nd April 2024

Tuesday, 2nd of April, European Manufacturing PMI – the European Union and Great Britain will release their business readings today. The results will demonstrate insights regarding sentiment. Financial institutions are worried the European Central Bank and Bank of England may have to consider lowering their interest rates before the Federal Reserve. The EUR/USD and GBP/USD will react to the results.

Tuesday, 2nd of April, U.S Federal Reserve FOMC Members – there will be appearances throughout the day in the U.S from various Federal Reserve members who will make the case for their monetary policy outlooks. It should be noted that Jerome Powell will be speaking on Wednesday. The JOLTS Job Openings will come out before the FOMC members speak. While the JOLTS report will not cause earth shattering reactions, the jobs data is the beginning of the parade regarding employment statistics for this week.

Wednesday, 3rd of April, U.S ISM Services PMI – taking into account the Manufacturing report came in stronger than expected on Monday, the Services data will be watched by financial institutions. If this report is better than anticipated, USD sellers will not rest easy. The ADP Non-Farm Employment Change data will also be released on this day.

Thursday, 4th of April, U.S Weekly Unemployment Claims – the Federal Reserve has been counting on employment strength to erode based on their notion that higher interest rates would create ‘lagging’ reactions in the jobs sector. Jerome Powell has said the Fed is anticipating weaker employment data. The results from the weekly report will not be as significant Friday’s data, but should be given attention by day traders in Forex.

Friday, 5th of April, U.S Non-Farm Employment Change and Average Hourly Earnings – the climax for speculators this week will be these jobs numbers from the States. If the numbers produce less hiring than expected this would help USD bearish momentum. Wages will also prove crucial regarding behavioral sentiment for financial institutions. Simply put, the Federal Reserve is anticipating that weaker employment numbers are going to be seen, if this doesn’t happen it might cause major volatility in Forex going into the weekend.

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Musings for the 29th of March 2024

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Musings for the 29th of March 2024

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10. Holidays: We wish everyone a peaceful long weekend. Hopefully the price of your chocolate eggs have not emptied your wallets.

9. Superconductivity: Nuclear fusion and magnets have a future together. Efficient electricity produced via compact generation is being worked on by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and the Jet Propulsion Laboratory of NASA.

8. TMTG: The Trump Media and Technology Group listed as DJT on Nasdaq ended yesterday’s trading within sight of 62.00 USD. The price is overbought taking into consideration its lack of revenues. However, because of its limited available shares, ‘shorting’ DJT is dangerous and a potentially expensive mistake.

7. Silly Season: U.S elections are growing closer and louder. However, fiscal and foreign policy clarity doesn’t get much airtime. Bread and circus for the masses.

6. Crypto ‘Insanity’: FTX Founder Sam Bankman-Fried was sentenced to 25 years in prison yesterday for his crimes. In the meantime, Bitcoin is over 70,000.00 USD this morning. Binance Coin is valued above 600.00 USD.

5. Frothy: Gold is near 2,230.00 USD per ounce, even as the USD grows in strength. Cocoa closed yesterday around 9,792.00 USD per metric ton, meaning it is more expensive than Copper, and the reason why your chocolate may be getting costly.

4. ‘Quiet’ Data: Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index data will be released today in the U.S, this as the financial markets are largely absent. Yesterday’s GDP and Consumer Sentiment numbers were stronger than expected. The inflation statistics may not get much fanfare today, but paying attention to the results could prove worthwhile for speculators.

3. Risk Warning: The return of large trading volumes next week are likely to cause volatility as financial institutions reopen and are reactive.

2. Bias: Many major currencies are struggling against the USD. Traders who believe their chosen currencies have been oversold should contemplate their perspectives and potential bias. Just because you believe something, doesn’t mean it is true. Forex is expressing nervous behavioral sentiment.

1. Fed Watch: Many analysts are starting to believe the Federal Reserve may not be able to cut interest rates this year, but traders should remember politics will be crucial as the U.S Presidential Election approaches. The Fed may be ‘independent’ but they are not deaf. If inflation remains stubborn, the Fed will need weak jobs numbers. But weekly Unemployment Claims came in below expectations yesterday. Financial institutions understand the U.S central bank is in a difficult place.

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Forex Volatility and Coming Data Attractions for this Week

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

Forex Volatility and Coming Data Attractions for this Week

Nervous trading results have hurt many day traders and likely financial institutions too, as behavioral sentiment in Forex gets blindsided by rather mixed U.S data and the Federal Reserve not giving a definitive answer regarding monetary policy. The violent trading in the USD last week was expected, but the turbulence that many Forex pairs experienced on Thursday and Friday of last week was rather vicious. For all the perceived sophistication of Forex markets via financial institutions, the trading results last week point to a definite fear of the unknown.

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USD/JPY Five Day Chart as of 25th March 2024

While the Bank of Japan finally changed its interest rate policy and moved to a Policy Rate of 0.10% early last week, this did not create selling momentum in the USD/JPY. The Federal Reserve’s dangling of potential interest rates to come this year caused temporary weakness in the USD, but as financial institutions and their clients looked at the prospects for a more dovish Fed they apparently became unimpressed as the days passed.

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WTI Crude Oil Six Month Chart as of 25th March 2024

The Fed seems to be betting on weaker jobs numbers developing, and there has been data which points to part-time jobs increasing, and full-time jobs becoming harder to find in the States. Jerome Powell said last week that if jobs numbers start to show weakness that the Fed would be willing to begin cutting interest rates even if inflation remains sticky. Lagging economic data correlations have not eased the Fed’s problems.

The Fed has also admitted inflation in housing, transportation and food remains problematic. WTI Crude Oil spent much of last week above 80.00 USD per barrel as its price has begun to show signs of rising incrementally again; and there is little the Fed can do about more expensive energy costs should they be seen. Higher costs for logistics will not make anything cheaper. Pricier mortgages, more expensive rent and insurance rates for cars and gasoline is creating serious knock on effects.

And for the sake of acknowledging the screaming prices in Cocoa, please have a look at the chart below which should explain why your chocolate products are going to be more expensive in the coming months. The price of the most delicious commodity in the world has tripled in less than a year’s time and is around 8931.0 USD per metric ton as of this writing.

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Cocoa One Year Chart as of 25th March 2024

Gold turned in a violent week of trading too as it reached 2224.00 last Wednesday, only to fall back to a known value around 2165.00. Day traders are dealing with violent cycles in Forex because sustained trends have been nearly impossible to find. While U.S equity indices are fighting upwards, speculators who are afraid of heights are likely being cautious if they are betting merely on the daily results from the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and Dow Jones 30 instead of investing for the long-term.

This week’s coming data from the U.S is important, financial institutions are already dealing with plenty of noise, and they will have to be careful regarding their interpretations regarding the coming economic statistics. Meaning day traders who are speculating in all financial assets should use risk taking tactics that are planned significantly in advance.

Monday, 25th of March, U.S New Home Sales – a slight gain is expected, but mortgage rates continue to shadow the housing sector and cause concerns.

Tuesday, 26th of March, U.S Consumer Confidence via the Conference Board – the reading is anticipating a slight increase. Consumer numbers from the U.S have come in mixed recently. A stronger result than estimated might not be welcomed by traders with bearish sentiment regarding the USD. The Fed wants its cake and to eat it too, they would like to see weaker consumer numbers and a soft economic downturn. If U.S shoppers remain confident this could help sustain inflation. It should be noted too, that Core Durable Goods Orders data will be released one and a half hours before the Consumer Confidence numbers.

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AUD/USD Six Month Chart as of 25th March 2024.

Wednesday, 27th of March, Australia Consumer Price Index – inflation numbers are expected to come in slightly higher than the previous results. Like most other central banks, except for the BoJ, the Reserve Bank of Australia would enjoy seeing inflation erode. The AUD/USD will react to the results certainly, but the price action might prove complicated because of USD centric notions.

Thursday, 28th of March, U.S GDP, Weekly Unemployment Claims, Pending Home Sales, and Revised Consumer Sentiment from the University of Michigan – put bluntly day traders will have to be well prepared for the combination of data from the States. Spectators who do not have large trading accounts and cannot take on a great amount of risk, should seriously consider sitting on the sidelines until most of the data is published. The GDP numbers will be watched carefully, while they are expected to match last month’s total, any surprises will affect the USD immediately in Forex. Weaker growth numbers might cause USD sellers to ignite positions.

However, before traders react too much to the Gross Domestic Product numbers, the Weekly Unemployment data will also impact the financial market. Financial institutions are anticipating a higher amount of unemployment claims this week. Also, at the same time as the growth and jobs numbers, the Final GDP Price Index numbers will be brought forth. The mixture from these reports could cause speculative whiplash.

The housing sector numbers and consumer numbers which come one and a half hours later will finish off a very big day for traders and institutional investors. The wide array of data could make this coming Thursday rather loud, and again rather dangerous for retail traders to participate.

Friday, 29th of March, Japan’s Tokyo Core Consumer Price Index – the inflation numbers are expecting to show a slight decrease to 2.4%. The result should certainly be watched by USD/JPY and GBP/JPY traders. If the number were to come in higher than expected, this could cause additional volatility for the Japanese Yen. Financial institutions seemed to indicate last week they would like to see the BoJ become more aggressive with their Policy Rate.

Friday, 29th of March, U.S Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index – the reading is expected to be below the previous month’s total. Traders should be on the lookout for revisions to past results. Financial institutions know this inflation number is important for the Federal Reserve, but they are concerned the U.S central bank doesn’t have the ability to combat inflation which is not part of the Core number. Energy and food costs which are hurting U.S consumers are not part of this report and likely making the Federal Reserve gun shy regarding monetary policy – which has caused a large part of the USD whipsaw trading results that Forex has experienced.

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Entries for the 22nd of March 2024

by with No Comment AMT MarketsArtificial IntelligenceFeatured Highlights

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Entries for the 22nd of March 2024

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10: Jefferson: Jon Meacham’s Thomas Jefferson The Art of Power provides well written historical and psychological insights concerning one of the U.S Founding Fathers.

9. Shohei Ohtani: Major League Baseball has a gambling scandal. Claims that Ohtani’s interpreter ‘stole’ over 4 million USD from the player to pay off gambling debts beg for questions.

8. Saudi Arabia: The nation has announced it plans on investing 40 billion USD into Artificial Intelligence sector companies via its Public Investment Fund (sovereign wealth fund) and potential business partners.

7. Steve Jobs: Apple’s innovation and tech leadership appears to be weakening as the absence of its deceased leader fades into memory, and competitors grow.

6. Bank of Japan: Monetary policy was finally shifted on Tuesday, an interest rate of 0.10% was instituted, today’s National Core CPI data came in at 2.8%. USD/JPY is currently around 151.400 suggesting financial institutions believe the BoJ Policy Rate may have to be raised again.

5. Gold & Forex: The precious metal challenged 2223.00 USD on Wednesday after the Fed’s FOMC rhetoric but is trading near 2165.00 as of this morning, this as the USD has gotten stronger again producing FX volatility.

4. Hot Chocolate: Cocoa finished yesterday at 8477.0 USD per metric ton, the commodity cost 2880.0 USD one year ago. What and who are manipulating the market?

3. China: Official Foreign Direct Investment statistics are supposed to be released soon. China argues that the fall of foreign investment capital is being reported with bias and not taking into consideration the impact of coronavirus, global monetary policy changes, and cyclical investment fluctuations. However, the FDI numbers remain troublesome and should be watched.

2. Risk Appetite: Major U.S equity indices including the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Dow Jones 30 are challenging record highs as behavioral sentiment remains exuberant, along with Japan’s Nikkei 225.

1. Interest Rates: The Federal Reserve has hinted three interest rate cuts ‘could’ happen this year, this while inflation in housing, transportation and food remain significant for U.S consumers. The Fed seems to be indicating it believes U.S jobs data will get worse. Political shadows hover over the central bank as the presidential election draws closer. The Fed only has 6 FOMC meetings left and appears to be playing with fire.

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Rays for the 15th of March 2024

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Rays for the 15th of March 2024

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10. Argentina: President Javier Milei is practicing fiscal sanity. The health of the Argentine Peso has improved, and monthly inflation data has begun to show signs of erosion.

9. Copper: The commodity has shown a steady increase since the 9th of February and is challenging values last seen in April of 2023. Demand could signal better global economic outlooks emerging.

8. Gold: The precious metal is near 2167.00 USD which appears high momentarily, this as questions about USD near-term direction lurks and Forex remains choppy.

7. Aramco: Profits for the energy producer were an approximately 121 billion USD for 2023, this as Saudi Arabia is propelling the nation’s infrastructure towards an elite future.

6. Bubble Watch: Binance Coin is around 580.00 USD as of this writing. BNB/USD was near 200.00 in the middle of October 2023.

5. Centrists: Will the adults be allowed back into the political arena to govern and brush away populists?

4. Inflation: Consumer prices are causing pain and household arrears are growing. Total U.S credit card debt is estimated over 1 trillion USD by the Reserve Bank of New York.

3. China: New Home Prices are still losing value via data released today. And the Shanghai Composite Index is near 3050.00 which looks suspiciously like a member of the ‘too expensive club’.

2. Data: U.S Producer Price Index stats were sharply higher yesterday, while Retail Sales came in below estimates. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment readings will be published today. The U.S economic outlook remains murky.

1. Prediction: Fed’s FOMC meeting next week will provide financial institutions cautious ‘vanilla’ remarks about monetary policy from Jerome Powell, meaning market conditions will likely continue to move sideways.

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Inflation Encore: Forex Traders Gathering Important Evidence

by with No Comment Central BanksEconomic CalendarFeatured Highlights

Inflation Encore: Forex Traders Gathering Important Evidence

The USD has been weaker against many major currencies the past week and inflation numbers coming from the U.S will test short-term outlooks. It should be remembered that in February before the CPI numbers were published, some who were leaning towards a weaker USD were traumatized after the stronger than anticipated results. However recent U.S economic data has shown a rather polite and distinct downturn.

Day traders should brace for drama today and understand that financial institutions will lead the way, either catapulting trends or stopping them in their tracks. As Forex speculators get set, Gold continues to also flirt with highs, as of this writing the precious metal is near 2175.00 USD. Financial assets from equity indices to digital assets (yes, Bitcoin) are experiencing frothy returns as values seemingly attract more capital inflows. In other words, bullish behavioral sentiment is rather strong and traders are reminded to stay realistic with their goals.

Again, there is a difference between quick hitting speculators trying to take advantage of robust trends compared to long-term investing. Day traders still need to do their homework and not bet blindly.

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Gold Five Year Chart as of 12th March 2024.

Monday, 11th of March, Japan GDP – Gross Domestic Product numbers yesterday came in with unexpected weaker results showing a gain of only 0.1% compared to an anticipated 0.3% gain. Yes, the USD/JPY held onto it downwards momentum, which it has established since last week. The trading results in the currency pair suggest financial institutions are placing their faith in mid-term outlooks.

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USD/JPY One Month Chart as of 12th March 2024

Tuesday, 12th of March, U.S Consumer Price Index – the inflation reports will headline and drive market conditions near-term. Last month’s numbers provoked a strong reaction when prices remained stubborn. The monthly core report is expected to show a slight decline today, but the monthly broad number is actually anticipated to rise slightly. With mixed statistics forecast already, day traders need to be prepared for a lot of noise – which may prove rather misguided. The problem for the markets today will come from the interpretation of the numbers, if the CPI figures can simply come close to their expectations this might keep conditions from getting wild, but choppy trading should certainly be counted upon leading up to and following the publication. This month’s encore of the CPI inflation numbers will hopefully be less dramatic than February’s performance.

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GBP/USD One Month Chart as of 12th March 2024

Wednesday, 13th of March, U.K Gross Domestic Product – a gain of 0.2% is expected via the growth number. Last month’s minus -0.1% outcome should serve as a reminder tough economic conditions remain evident. Yet, last month’s number actually beat a worse expectation. GBP/USD traders who have been patient with their bullish stances have been rewarded recently. A slight gain in the GDP number from the U.K could help bolster additional confidence regarding mid-term outlooks for the GBP/USD. The BoE, like the U.S Federal Reserve, will make their monetary policy pronouncements next week.

Thursday, 14th of March, U.S PPI and Retail Sales – the Producer Price Index and consumer spending numbers may produce the surprise for the week regarding market reactions. The Core PPI results are expected to be weaker, while Retail Spending is anticipated to grow. If the inflation results via the PPI data is weaker than anticipated this could allow for further weakness in the USD to develop.

Friday, 15th of March, China New Home Sales – real estate values in the nation remain a focal point for analysis. Another large decline in prices for homes would not be good news. The economy of China is suffering from deflation which hasn’t shown evidence of diminishing soon. China remains a vital part of the global economy. Industrial Production numbers will come from the nation on Monday.

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Notions for the 8th of March 2024

by with No Comment AMT MarketsArtificial IntelligenceFeatured Highlights

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Notions for the 8th of March 2024

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10. Social Credit Score: George Orwell in our Age of the All Knowing State via public cameras using facial and body language recognition, along with listening devices that can gather voices and other sounds would chill him to the bone.

9. French Revolution: It was ‘wrong’ to say madame and monsieur after the ‘ancien regime‘ was replaced, instead the expression ‘citizen’ (citoyen) was invoked. Not using the proper words could bring the guillotine into your future.

8. Japan: Nikkei 225 has come off the top, but remains highly valued. GDP numbers will come from the nation next Monday, and the BoJ is on the calendar the 19th of March.

7. Tech Espionage: Linwei Ding, a Chinese national, who worked for Google as a software engineer has been accused of stealing information regarding supercomputing and artificial intelligence. The U.S government has filed criminal charges against Ding in San Francisco, California.

6. Central Banks: Federal Reserve Chairman Powell per his testimony in Washington D.C remained cautious, saying he wants data to confirm inflation is eroding. The ECB yesterday also voiced care while trying to sound optimistic about economic conditions which remain lackluster.

5. FOMO: ‘Fear of missing out’ is being seen in many asset classes including cryptos and equities. Day traders while speculating should remain realistic and practice solid risk management.

4. U.S Indices: Apex heights persist as the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and Dow Jones 30 receive massive inflows of capital.

3. Gold: Record prices have been attained in the precious metal as speculative elements have pushed value above 2160.00 USD as of this writing.

2. Forex: The USD has seen weakness re-emerge the past handful of days as the ‘masses’ have seemingly energized again upon the notion of a change to the Federal Funds Rate.

1. U.S Data: Non-Farm Employment Change and Hourly Average Earnings statistics will be published today, either helping confirm or confront financial institutions behavioral sentiment. Weaker hiring and a diminishing of wage inflation is anticipated. Will it happen? Forex, U.S Treasury yields and equities will react.

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Forex: Powell, ECB and U.S Jobs Numbers as Gold and Oil Run

by with No Comment Behavioral SentimentCommoditiesFeatured Highlights

Forex: Powell, ECB and U.S Jobs Numbers as Gold and Oil Run

Day traders and investors received a dose of optimistic ‘news’ last week as U.S economic data came in weaker than expected. While Forex certainly proved choppy as anticipated, the USD has shown signs of stability and perhaps has created a durable resistance level up above regarding its potential value looking into the mid-term.

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Gold Six Month Chart as of 5th March 2024

A potential telltale sign regarding the USD in Forex is the current price of Gold which is testing highs and as of this writing is near 2115.00 USD. While below the speculative heights of early December, the precious metal is above prices seen in late December when the USD was being sold heavily. The value of Gold is a rather solid barometer regarding outlook for behavioral sentiment in Forex. A weaker USD translates into a higher Gold price in many cases.

U.S Treasury yields have also decreased slightly over the past handful of days. And while U.S equity indices are within sight of record values, traders should monitor developing news regarding U.S regional banks and concerns about New York Community Bancorp (NYBC). For the moment it appears investors have not turned too nervous when considering the bigger picture of stock markets. Perhaps last year’s regional bank crisis has made investors in equity indices feel immune to fears of contagion stemming from bad commercial real estate lending. Or perhaps many folks are marching along merrily and refuse to pay attention for fear of missing out when their associates continue to parade into the indices.

The cryptocurrency market has come out of its deep freeze and sunshine is pervading the mindsets of speculative gamblers in crypto assets. U.S run ETFs are raising a lot of money. Folks have driven the market sky high again in the digital asset Bitcoin and its fellow travelers like Ethereum, Binance Coin, and there have been signs of pure casino like wagering in Dogecoin and Shibu Inu. Be carefu if you are considering dipping your toes into this ‘market’. Volatility and changes of sentiment can happen in the flick of an eye.

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USD/JPY Six Month Chart as of 5th March 2024

Monday, 4th of March, Japan Capital Spending – a huge jump of 16.4% was reported yesterday. This points to better economic sentiment. The Bank of Japan has been getting a lot of attention the past handful of months because some financial institutions expect the BoJ’s monetary policy to begin changing. The USD/JPY remains near important resistance levels, but below the highs of last October and November 2023 values. Mid-term speculators may be leaning towards bearish sentiment in the currency pair, but a trend lower has not been established yet.

Tuesday, 5th of March, U.S Service PMI via ISM – last week’s growth and inflation data from the U.S was less than expected. While the U.S economy has shown rather stubborn growth, the American economy may be showing signs of slowing. Today’s reading is expected to come in below the previous month’s outcome.

Wednesday, 6th of March, U.S Federal Reserve Chairman Powell – the Fed chief will testify before the Senate via the Semi-Annual Monetary Report over a two day span. Because it is an election year a rather aggressive amount of questions will be asked. However, Powell is a skilled speaker and it unlikely he will be rattled by political rhetoric. Of interest will be any comments regarding inflation, this as the Fed Chairman is asked for insights regarding the Federal Funds Rate outlook. While this testimony in Washington D.C is usually a polite get together, the notion that some politicians may try to score points will make this a potentially important calendar event for investors to pay attention regarding financial market gyrations. Powell is expected to remain cautious regarding his answers.

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WTI Crude Oil One Year Chart as of 5th March 2024

Wednesday, 6th of March, U.S Crude Oil Inventories – last week’s U.S supply report posted increased results, yet the price of WTI Crude Oil jumped the end of last week. The value of the commodity remains within the lower part of its one year range and should be watched. Recent speculative action has shown some buying momentum. The price of energy is a big component within global inflation and should be watched as the 80.00 USD Crude Oil level is challenged.

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EUR/USD Six Month Chart as of 5th March 2024

Thursday, 7th of March, European Central Bank Main Refinancing Rate – once again the ECB is expected to not act. The question is if financial institutions may try to send the European Central Bank a message because of its ‘inaction’ as inflation remains stubborn in Europe and growth hard to achieve. The EUR/USD has returned to value above the 1.08000 mark again, but visions of a stronger EUR have been hard to attain. The combination of the ECB Monetary Policy Statement and Press Conference, as Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is addressing politicians in Washington D.C could make for an interesting day of volatility in Forex.

Thursday, 7th of March, U.S State of the Union – President Joe Biden will deliver his address to Congress.

Friday, 8th of March, U.S Non-Farm Employment Change and Average Hourly Earnings – weaker jobs numbers and diminishing wage escalation are expected. U.S economic data last week came in below estimates. This report will be a solid barometer for financial institutions. While the work force numbers in the U.S are said to be tight – meaning there is full employment – layoffs have certainly been taking place in some sectors. Also worth paying attention to in the ‘back pages’ of the report, will be the amount of average hours worked by employees which have seen a statistical decline emerge.

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Spiders for the 1st of March 2024

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Spiders for the 1st of March 2024

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10. Palystes: Huntsman spiders known in South Africa as ‘rain spiders’ are nocturnal and visit indoors, sometimes causing horror for those stumbling through hallways in the middle of the night. But it is better than a baboon entering the house.

9. Victor Wembanyama: Last night’s stat line included 28 points, 13 rebounds, 5 blocks, 5 3pts made, 7 assists, 2 steals in less than 33 minutes played. The rookie is already one of the best NBA players. Btw, the Spurs beat the Thunder also.

8. Tech: Chinese cars are now in the crosshairs of U.S politicians who are worried the ‘smart’ vehicles can collect sensitive data from Americans.

7. Crypto: Bitcoin above 61,000.00 USD, Ethereum over 3,300.00, and Binance Coin testing 400.00 even as the company remains under U.S legal shadows. How much air can the balloons withstand?

6. Putin’s Nuclear Threats: In a world with escalating geo-political tension, the Russian leader remains determined and energetic while playing ‘war poker’ against Europe.

5. U.S Data: Core PCE Index numbers yesterday met expectations, but the previous month’s outcome was revised downwards. Today a Consumer Sentiment reading comes from the University of Michigan. This week’s U.S data has mostly been pleasantly ‘weaker’.

4. Central Banks: Fed ‘watchers’ are likely feeling more comfortable this morning regarding the possibility of a late spring ‘thaw’ in U.S interest rates. Jerome Powell will testify in front of the Senate next Thursday. The ECB will release their Monetary Policy Statement on the 7th of March also. Next FOMC pronouncements will be on the 20th of March.

3. Gold: The precious metal is near 2050.00 USD, this after yesterday’s U.S inflation report, gold could remain volatile today. Some speculators may be looking for additional value to develop.

2. Forex: FX has been a constant battle the past two months, but patient traders with mid-term perspectives may be anticipating their weaker USD targets to trend more steadily.

1. Equities: Many global stock indices are achieving record levels as bullish behavioral sentiment creates upwards momentum. S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and the Composite, Dow 30, Nikkei 225 and the DAX Index are flirting with higher values.

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Forex and Equities Storm: Crucial Data will Impact Markets

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

Forex and Equities Storm: Crucial Data will Impact Markets

Today will start out with a rather important consumer report from the U.S and day traders should stay alert. It is easy to point to every day and week as being a crucial circumstance for speculators, because that is what gets their juices moving and gets them to wager in the markets.

However, given the rather choppy conditions in Forex seen since the last week of December and pointing to the results of the Consumer Price Index on the 13th of February and the storms created in FX, traders hopefully have enough muscle memory to remember how they felt in the midst of the whipsaw conditions which were experienced only two weeks ago.

Central bank outlooks are fragile among analysts and financial institutions. Simply put this week’s data could prove to be more important than the CPI numbers. Consumer sentiment, GDP, and inflation statistics are all on the U.S roll call this week.

Other geographies will make news too and impact global markets. Last week’s impressive results from Nvidia created another massive wave of positive momentum in equity indices. The Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 and the Dow Jones 30 all have hit record values. Japan’s Nikkei 225 has surpassed record heights.

Yet, other barometers do highlight caution abounds too, U.S Treasuries yields have edged upwards and are touching values which show there is nervousness regarding monetary policy from the U.S Federal Reserve. This week’s data will deliver more insights for investors, and Treasuries are certainly going to react to the economic reports.

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Gold One Month Chart as of 27th of February 2024

Gold has edged higher in the past week and is around the 2034.00 USD mark as of this writing. The slight climb above the 2020.00 ratio which has worked like a magnet recently, indicates some traders may be leaning optimistically towards a weaker USD mid and long-term. These folks may be proven correct, but day traders should note that the 2030.00 ratio in gold is below highs seen in December, January and early February – which indicates nervousness. If day traders do not believe gold acts as an inverse barometer for the USD, simply look at the results of trading when the stronger than expected CPI numbers were released on the 13th of February. Gold fell to a low near 1985.00 on the 14th, this was not a coincidence.

Again, while it is easy to sound alarms and jump up and down and proclaim every week important for day traders, the acknowledgement that this week’s economic data is significant should not be treated as hyperbole. You have been warned.

Monday, 26th of February, U.S New Home Sales – yesterday’s results showed another decline in the housing market, and the previous month’s number was revised downwards. The outcome may point to concerns about U.S mortgage rates which remain stubbornly high for those considering purchases.

Tuesday, 27th of February, U.S Durable Goods Orders – a rather large drop of minus -4.9% is expected. The Core data however is expected to produce a rise of 0.2%. These numbers will be a good precursor for the important consumer sentiment which will follow one and a half hours later.

Tuesday, 27th of February, U.S Consumer Confidence via the Conference Board – the results of the important readings have shown intriguing gains since late fall in 2023. While improvement in sentiment has been recorded, revisions lower have also been seen in the previous three reports. The outcome of today’s report should be treated carefully. If another higher reading is produced this may create some positive momentum in the USD momentarily.

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NZD/USD Three Month Chart as of 27th February 2024

Wednesday, 28th of February, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Official Cash Rate and Monetary Policy Statement – while many Forex traders will be sleeping when the RBNZ makes its important pronouncement, New Zealand inflation data has remained strong and a conservative government is in charge politically that is pro-business. The question is if the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will go against the grain of other global central banks and actually increase their interest rate while others seem to be adamant about trying to become less aggressive. While many analysts believe the RBNZ will sit on its hands and act according to the whims of others, if an interest rate hike is announced global Forex traders should take note because it would be a signal that central bankers are uneasy regarding their rhetoric and not in agreement.

Wednesday, 28th of February, U.S Preliminary Gross Domestic Product – a gain of 3.3% is the expectation from many analysts. The previous reading was stronger than anticipated. If growth numbers in the U.S come in higher than estimated the USD will react with strength. The Federal Reserve would like to see the outcome meet the expectation or come in below, this so the U.S central bank can consider reducing the Federal Funds Rate late this spring or in early summer. However, if a significantly strong growth number is demonstrated this would cause turmoil in Forex.

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EUR/USD Six Month Chart as of 27th February 2024

Thursday, 29th of February, Germany Preliminary Consumer Price Index – a slight gain is expected in the inflation number. The EUR/USD has been struggling as stagflation concerns shadow the European Union. A higher inflation result will not be welcomed by the ECB, which would prefer to cut interest rates sooner rather than later. The German number should be watched and it will cause an impact if there is a surprise. The EUR/USD has been turbulent and is likely to produce more choppy conditions depending on the parade of data results this week.

Thursday, 29th of February, U.S Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index – traders who have felt the previous economic reports already have caused intense reactions this week should brace for this inflation report. A result of 0.4% is expected. The Federal Reserve admits this is one of the most important publications that it monitors. This means financial institutions react to this report too. If inflation were to come in higher than expected, like the CPI results from two weeks ago, this would essentially kill off expectations of a May interest rate cut from the Fed. The USD will react to this report and so will U.S Treasury yields, which means equity indices will also be affected. A weaker inflation report is being wished for by many market participants, but will this be the result?

Friday, 1st of March, China Manufacturing PMI – not to beat a dead horse, but China’s economic data has been poor and this report will be viewed as important. Another negative outcome is expected. Transparency regarding economic numbers from China is a worry for investors. Conditions in China are being watched and it is important for traders to eliminate bias regarding their perspectives. China may be struggling, but its importance as an economic power is still very much in evidence. Foreign direct investment into China is diminishing, but plenty of investors still have ‘skin in the game’ and will be affected by the manufacturing reports.

Friday, 1st of March, U.S Manufacturing PMI via ISM – a slightly improved manufacturing reading is expected. However, because of the U.S data releases from the previous days, the results may be looked at only momentarily and not cause much of a reaction from market participants. Traders may be looking forward to the weekend after this week’s economic publications in order to rest.

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Sunrays for the 23rd of February

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Sunrays for the 23rd of February

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10. Word of the Day: Abeyance – the state of suspending something until another issue is resolved. Can you say, “Central Banks”……we knew you could.

9. South Africa: National election is scheduled for the 29th of May. Will the disdain the ANC and EFF have for the ‘West’ be addressed by voters or will the masses elect the usual suspects?

8. China and Germany: New Home Sales prices dropped again in China per data released this morning, Germany’s GDP data published today shows negative growth and recessionary pressures growing.

7. Nvidia: Their quarterly earnings report this week showed Artificial Intelligence isn’t a mere marketing tool, but a moneymaker opening a new era for technology.

6. South Carolina: Nikki Haley apparently will lose the Republican Primary in her home state tomorrow, but likely stay in the presidential race hoping that Donald Trump implodes via his own ego or legally.

5. Don’t Touch that Switch: AT&T believes yesterday’s widespread phone outage was caused by human error, not a hack.

4. U.S Equity Indices: Timeframes and patience remain crucial for investors amidst daily gyrations, this as the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and Dow Jones 30 explore record values.

3. New Zealand: Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand go against the grain and actually raise its Official Cash Rate next Wednesday to fight stubborn inflation, or capitulate to the wait and see approach of ‘others’? The NZD/USD should be watched.

2. Caution: Forex remains choppy, U.S Treasury yields have crept slightly upwards, gold is hovering near 2020.00 USD. AMT’s #1 may be the reason why.

1. U.S Data Next Week: Preliminary GDP will be published on Wednesday, and Thursday will present the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index. The results could create massive impetus in all financial assets.