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Forex: Trump Effect and Reasonable Trading Caution for All

by with No Comment Behavioral SentimentEconomic CalendarFeatured Highlights

Forex: Trump Effect and Reasonable Trading Caution for All

The Forex market the past two months has created a profoundly stronger USD against many major currencies. The combination of late September intrigue regarding U.S Federal Reserve outlook, then nervousness about the approaching U.S election, followed by the subsequent results have been a dumpster fire for many speculators looking for a sustained return to USD centric weakness. Hopefully risk taking tactics have included a solid dose of caution.

This week’s Non-Farm Employment Change numbers scheduled for Friday may give financial institutions a moment to focus on economic data instead of President-elect Donald Trump’s loud pronouncements, but the effect may prove to only be momentary. It isn’t data that is driving Forex for the moment it is nervousness and fear of the unknown.

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USD/BRL Three Month Chart as of 3rd December 2024

While many financial institutions and speculators trade only the major currency pairs, taking a look at the less obvious and more infrequently transacted major currencies may provide retail traders additional perspectives regarding the fragile nature of Forex. Many nations and large institutions are demonstrating concerns about possible sea changes to U.S foreign economic policy. Yes, the EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY have all seen volatility via USD strength the past two months, but price velocity in the USD/BRL, USD/RUB, and USD/INR may be equally intriguing. And prove that mid-term forecasts (or lack of them) are causing bedlam for all.

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USD/RUB Three Month Chart as of 3rd December 2024

While it is more than probable calmer heads will start to be seen in Forex and weakness eventually will return to the USD, trying to pick the exact moment this is going to happen remains a guessing game. Financial institutions via evidence in current Forex pricing remains rather cautious regarding their cash forward commercial enterprise. President-elect Donald Trump has certainly been dealt with before and his negotiation style is that of a businessman, it is not a coincidence that some global leaders who do not exactly see eye to eye with Trump are giving him respect because they understand he will act upon threats if not dealt with fairly.

Trump’s recent brief rhetoric regarding BRICS and the organization’s public consideration of creating a new currency to compete with the USD did not go unnoticed this weekend. Critics may want to proclaim Trump’s threats as belligerent, but BRICS is free to create a new currency still if they wish. While Trump cannot stop the birth of a BRICS currency, he can certainly try to initiate actions (via sanctions) against nations that attempt to create a new unified currency which tries to curtail the dominance of the USD. It would certainly help Trump’s bargaining position and the USD also, if better fiscal policy is practiced by the U.S Treasury and government.

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USD/INR Three Month Chart as of 3rd December 2024

It needs to be pointed out that Trump’s warning to BRICS may not be needed. Even though the organization may be able to create a currency based on a commodities backbone, the lack of trust many financial institutions and nations would feel towards a non-transparent fiat currency powered by the fiscal monetary policies from the likes of Russia, China, Brazil and South Africa remains a difficult sell. Until many changes happen domestically within these nations via governance, creation of a BRICS currency remains wishful thinking.

Getting back to the big picture and the volatility recently seen in Forex. While the major currencies teamed against the USD have certainly faced hectic conditions, the fluctuations have not been unexpected. Day traders need to understand the month of December is likely going to remain choppy and see a test of technical support and resistance levels that are wide and full of fast reversals.

The question for the EUR, GBP, and JPY is if most of the negative inputs into these currencies has been factored into value. The suspicion may be yes, and that strength may rightfully appear in these big three sooner rather than later. However, the approaching holiday season and potential bluster from President-elect Trump will not make this a comfortable or easily wagered avenue.

Short-term retail traders looking to take advantage of the bloodbath created in Forex the past two months who seek opportunities should focus on perceived targets which aren’t overly ambitious. The coming U.S jobs data this Friday may allow the U.S Federal Reserve room to cut the Federal Funds rate on the 18th of December by another quarter of a point. As a point of attention, the European Central Bank will announce their Main Refinancing Rate on the 12th of December. The ECB’S actions may be a solid clue regarding the Fed’s approach to upcoming policy.

However, even if an interest rate cut were to take place via the Federal Reserve, it is likely the cut has already been factored into Forex. Which also highlights the high degree of nervousness that exists because of fears which permeate due to Donald Trump’s tough negotiation stances which have been made public. Meaning those who are looking for USD centric weakness to emerge still need to rely on a shift within behavioral sentiment to occur that is not generated because of the Federal Reserve. Nations need to show a willingness to amend existing trading agreements with the U.S, allowing for changes to internal policies regarding exuberant price duties they place on U.S goods in their own countries.

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Return to Normal Market Conditions and a Trump Outlook

by with No Comment AssetsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

Return to Normal Market Conditions and a Trump Outlook

Retail speculators can now expect a return to calm and clear financial market outlooks, knowing that potential influences from new U.S policies will start to be considered. With the U.S elections in the rear view mirror and a Trump mandate delivered by many U.S voters, global financial institutions and traders will again be able to focus on a combination of technical perspectives, current behavioral sentiment and outlook.

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USD Cash Index Six Month Chart as of 10 November 2024

Some technical traders may believe behavioral sentiment has nothing to do with the long-term prospects of studying charts, but price action last week in FX and equities clearly showed why traders must be attuned to storms created by human emotions. Risk adverse trading has been prevalent since the end of September. A glance at the six month USD Cash Index demonstrates the extent of behavioral sentiment causing volatility the past handful of months. After believing the U.S Federal Reserve was going to become dovish which propelled the USD lower in many Forex pairs in early July, financial institutions expressed concerns about political outlook the past handful of weeks as a lack of clarity started to shroud their perspectives. USD centric positions have powered Forex.

And now that there is a Trump administration coming, and the U.S Fed has remained cautiously dovish this past Thursday, financial institutions may exhale with relief. The election on November the 5th has delivered a clear message regarding the potential for changes to U.S administration mandates regarding trade. Whether a stronger U.S economy is attained because of these hopes is not the question, it is the perception new policies will be initiated which try to deliver results which have been promised. Yes, promises can be broken.

However, the ability to believe changes are coming will affect behavioral sentiment. The Trump soundbites may prove to be rather weak in the future, but there is a chance he will also get things done regarding stronger trade agreements which protect U.S business enterprise and manufacturing. Folks can argue until they are blue in the face regarding the prospects of all things, but the U.S major equity indices rising like a rocket ride in the middle of last week is clear evidence that many believe the prospects for U.S corporations is better. No matter if it is only hopes about tax laws changing, less regulation, and better U.S trade agreements, investors are clearly betting on optimistic outlooks for the mid-term.

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Dow Jones 30 One Month Chart as of 10 November 2024

Improved attitudes are great for the prospect of financial institutions, but traders still have to certainly protect their positions against volatility developing. Markets should start to return to tranquil conditions in the days ahead. U.S data will come this week which will be important via the CPI numbers on Wednesday and PPI figures this Thursday – the combination of these inflation reports will be important. Friday will see Retail Sales from the States.

The return to data as a guideline for financial institutions teamed with the Fed’s rate cut this past Thursday may be an ointment for retail traders who seek a return to normal conditions. Nervous behavioral sentiment could remain a factor in the coming days as people adjust their outlooks to a Trump White House, but the coming week should be relatively quiet regarding surprises.

It isn’t a question of liking or disliking the outcome of the U.S election, it is a question about how behavioral sentiment will now be affected. While some bring up potential tariffs as a major risk for the U.S and global economy, we have been down this road before with Trump. The risk of inflation if trade disagreements flourish should be taken seriously, but Trump has dealt with China in the past and both sides did find a way to do business in many respects. China is probably worried about Trump being in the White House again, but they likely have a gameplan for the tough business discussions ahead. The experience of having dealt with President Trump before allows China and others to know what they may face this time and empower them to be prepared.

It should be noted that Trump has shown in the past a tendency to enter negotiations with a difficult offer and permitting the other side to counter. Trump then might turn down a proposal, but often shows he is open to discussing things further and reaching a compromise. And that is the crucial word – compromise. It is about business and geopolitics. Financial institutions have dealt with a Trump White House before. This time around there is a hope Trump’s naming of a White House cabinet will not be as messy an affair as it was the first time.

The naming of Susie Wiles as the White House Chief of Staff last week looks like a good first step, also having strong Republican leadership in the Senate and House of Representatives may make things easier. While some are worried about a slew of loud rhetorical stances by Trump, perhaps pragmaticism will be practiced. And based on that rather optimistic viewpoint, retail traders may also feel businesslike conditions are ahead and that the financial markets will be a safer place to pursue speculative wagers again in the near and mid-term.

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Top Ten Miscellaneous Slogans for the 21st of October

by with No Comment AssetsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

Top Ten Miscellaneous Slogans for the 21st of October

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10. Evil Empires: The Yankees and Dodgers will square off in the World Series with their ultra expensive rosters competing for the championship. Maybe this is exactly what the U.S needs so people can take their minds off of U.S election concerns. A contest between Los Angeles and New York is a big selling card. TV ratings should soar as Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto, Mookie Betts, and Aaron Judge battle for the supremacy of baseball.

9. Vision: SpaceX achieved magical results as a Falcon 9 rocket booster was caught by ‘chopsticks’ as planned for and engineered. Elon Musk proved again that his preposterous ramblings are frequently correct. SpaceX is in a solid position to provide logistics for outer space exploration and development, but to also create new business endeavors as it evolves. The implied value of SpaceX mid-2024 was estimated to be around 200 billion USD.

8. 2017: Bitcoin was around 1,000.00 USD in January of 2017. The price of the digital asset is now approximately 68,500. The perception and betting that a Trump victory may be putting a spring in the step of the cryptocurrency market is intriguing. Bitcoin trades based on behavioral sentiment and not intrinsic value. Trump has spoken about crypto favorably time to time. A more welcoming SEC and CFTC regarding crypto could help values. For those looking for further correlation to BTC/USD and Trump, when he left office in January of 2021, Bitcoin was near 31,000 USD.

7. Downturn: Environmental, social and governance investing has taken a hit compared to results from the past couple of years as outflows from investment vehicles led by the likes of BlackRock and others make noise. ESG has lost its luster as the race for superior profits has run into headwinds and analysts question values and revenues. What will happen over the next few years, particularly if ESG investing finds that it has fewer friends in the U.S halls of power?

6. Data: U.S economic statistics will be rather lacking this week, the highlight may be the Flash Manufacturing PMI numbers on Thursday. Some may try to make the weekly Unemployment Claims a spectacle too, particularly brokers who may be trying to entice day traders into Forex positions. However, the rather calm seas regarding data will turn tumultuous next week because U.S Advance GDP, Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, and the Non-Farm Employment Change results are all on the schedule.

5. Underwater: WTI Crude Oil started to flirt with the 70.00 USD mark last Tuesday, and after a few days of remaining within a rather tight range, support was proven vulnerable. As of this writing WTI is near 69.65. The lack of an attack on Iranian oil infrastructure by Israel has seemingly calmed the energy sector. Fearmongering and bombastic rhetoric have not caused WTI Crude Oil to sustain highs. The commodity is within the lower elements of its long-term price range technically.

4. 24 Carat: Record values in gold are being traversed. As of this writing the precious metal is near 2,734.00 per ounce. Gold was around 1,200.00 USD in January of 2017. Inflation, speculation and concerns about central banks are likely helping gold shine. Some may say the rise in value is a derivative of safe haven investing. Day traders may view the price as speculatively high and dangerous because of its intraday volatility, but long-term gold bugs know the historical track record of the precious metal and its ability to preserve wealth.

3. FX: Major currencies paired against the USD are finding increasingly choppy waters near-term. The USD/JPY is dangerously close to the 150.000 mark, the USD/MXN is within sight of 20.00000, and the GBP/USD is hovering above 1.30000. The EUR/USD is battling too and scuffling below the 1.09000 ratio. With no major data coming this week, but major risk events approaching on the horizon, now is the time for Forex traders to remain cautious and not get too ambitious. Forex may provide technical traders with the ability to wager on perceived support and resistance near-term. But soon, a huge wave of volatility is going to hit currency speculation and financial institutions are certainly getting prepared for the storm.

2. Tick Tock: The U.S election is only a bit more than two weeks away. This may be the last week for any huge surprises which could sway the decisions of voters. Harris and Trump and campaigning hard and receiving intense media coverage. Early voting is underway, but November the 5th is the date everyone is focused on. When the clock strikes November the 6th in the U.S, global investors will react.

1. Behavioral sentiment: Key market barometers will continue to get plenty of attention in the coming days. U.S indices serve as a heat check regarding the potential outcome of the U.S election. Equities are near highs and this seems to be a rather solid indication risk appetite remains the dominant feature. While some will not want to hear it, this likely means many folks in the investment world are starting to believe Donald Trump might win the U.S election.

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Salvos for the 29th of September

by with No Comment AMT MarketsAssetsFeatured Highlights

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Salvos for the 29th of September

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10. Profit: OpenAI has announced plans to become a money making corporation. Founded in 2015 the artificial intelligence company had the stated goal of creating ‘safe and beneficial’ technologies via its foundation, and now will face the slings and arrows of investors and potential critics. The AI boom the past two years has produced many new competitors. Can Sam Altman, the CEO of OpenAI, sustain the momentum generated or will negative organizational impetus turn the company into an also-ran?

9. Softs: Cocoa, Coffee and Sugar all remain volatile and playgrounds for day traders who like casino experiences via CFDs. Cocoa is again over 9,000 USD, Sugar touched February highs this past week as it shows signs of extreme speculation, and Coffee Arabica surged to record prices on Thursday and Friday. Over exuberance however is not being created by day traders, it is the work of large institutional traders who are in control. While the ‘softs’ may look overbought it would be unwise to bet against trends while big players pursue bullish notions. Massive money is being made in these commodities, but losses are also being felt by those who wager incorrectly.

8. Escalation: Risks in the Middle East have become a focal point, this as the region appears to have generated more must watch television. The noise which the media seemingly craves is hard to escape. Market participants cannot be blamed for maintaining vigilance as sabers rattle, especially after Friday’s events in Beirut when Hassan Nasrallah, the Hezbollah leader, was eliminated by Israel. However, experienced traders who are also strategic analysts have seen this show before and may turn the channel knowing there will be reruns in the future.

7. WTI Crude Oil: Prices closed within the lower elements of the commodity’s long-term depths. Traders did have a chance to react to Friday’s developing news from Beirut, but the energy sector remained calm. The price of WTI was around 68.57 going into this weekend, after trading at highs earlier in the week. For all the talk about fear of escalation from the Middle East, the price of Crude Oil remains within a remarkable bearish stance as large traders appear to be more concerned about lackluster economic growth globally.

6. Apex Gold: The price of the precious metal flirted with 2,685.00 momentarily on Thursday. The price of gold going into this weekend finished near 2,658.00 USD. Sustained highs have certainly continued to catch the attention of short-term speculators, but they need to be aware the commodity does remain susceptible to sudden spikes. While alluring, gold remains dangerous for day traders.

5. Countdown: The U.S Presidential vote is slightly more than 5 weeks away. Interestingly, the Fed will announce their Federal Funds Rate decision only two days after the election results. Will the outcome of the vote change the Fed’s perspective on interest rates? Financial institutions will definitely brace for the outcome of the U.S vote. Cautious winds will start to prevail as the 5th of November draws closer.

4. China: A huge stimulus package from the Chinese government has been initiated, but talk regarding potential effects and outcomes are being debated. The notion that the Chinese economy is be driven too much with a top to down centralized approach is being vocalized by some worried ‘outside’ observers. The USD/CNY is trading near 7.0105. The Shanghai Composite is near 3,087, this after massive gains via a reversal upwards which was sparked from lows around 2,691 which were seen on the 18th of September.

3. Risk Appetite: U.S equity indices continue to challenge record values in the Dow 30 and S&P 500. Yes, the Nasdaq remains beneath its highs, but is still within sight of all-time heights. Trading this week will work under the shadow of the jobs numbers coming this Friday. Financial institutions have produced rather positive behavioral sentiment and do not seem like they are ready to back away from this stance. Are some large market participants starting to quietly bet on the possibility of a Trump victory which they believe would be good for U.S stocks?

2. Forex: USD centric notions remain the impetus in foreign exchange. The USD Cash Index is within the lower boundaries of its long-term values as it trades near July 2023 realms. If the USD Cash Index moves lower it would then start to technically be within price calculations not seen since the spring of 2022. Action in the USD/JPY and GBP/USD, and other major currency pairs have been volatile, choppy conditions should be expected this week for traders leading into Friday’s key data.

1. Jobs Numbers: Last week’s GDP statistics met expectations, while inflation numbers via the Core PCE Price Index came in slightly below estimates. The growth and inflation outcomes set the table for the Non-Farm Employment Change and Average Hourly Earnings which will be reported on the 4th of October. If the employment numbers continue to trend lower and there are additional negative revisions this coming Friday, this could propel USD selling. Financial institutions are trying to figure out if the Fed will cut by 0.25% or 0.50% in November. The Fed was aggressively dovish when they cut the Federal Funds Rate by 0.50% on the 18th of September, but the U.S central bank might want to be cautious in November following the election and wait for all the dust to settle and cut by only 0.25%. Thus allowing for another interest rate cut in early 2025 if needed. The broad markets are in a reflexive mode for the time being, this Friday’s data will be important and cause an immediate reaction that day traders will notice.

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous ‘Just the Facts Jack’ on the 14th of Sept.

by with No Comment AMT MarketsAssetsFeatured Highlights

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous 'Just the Facts Jack' on the 14th of Sept.

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10. Word of the Day: Quaestuary, the usage of the word comes from William Manchester’s book A World lit only by Fire. The word is now considered obsolete. Manchester used the Latin word, quaestiarii, to describe profit making by the Roman Catholic Church during the Middle Ages and into the Renaissance. Church ‘officials’ would use their positions of power to raise money dubiously. Promising absolution to the naive via treacherous claims which included the charging of payments for potential sins committed in the future, and a more lenient purgatory for already deceased members of a family who were waiting to be allowed into heaven because of past transgressions.

9. Undecided: With less than two months before the U.S election for President, swing States are crucial battlegrounds for candidates Trump and Harris. Turning purple into red or blue is the prime task for the Republicans and Democrats. Economy, immigration, foreign policy, reproductive rights are among the talking points. Which side can receive the most votes via promises that will be hard to accomplish?

8. Artificial Intelligence: Early this week Oracle Corporation released revenue results and projections showing that profits are increasing due to demand for data centers as the use of AI expands. Cloud services provided by Oracle has become the corporation’s largest source of growth. Investments in big data centers are getting competitive. Data4 has recently announced they are going to invest approximately 300 million EUR into a data center facility in Paiana, Greece. Data4 led by Olivier Micheli, CEO, has announced that it plans on investing around 7 billion EUR into 2030 for expansion.

7. Crude Oil: WTI Crude Oil briefly went above the 70.00 USD mark on Friday, but went into the weekend near 69.33. U.S economic data this coming week (besides the U.S Fed on the 18th) will be limited to manufacturing readings and retail sales data. The notions that the U.S economy is struggling via weaker employment numbers and lackluster GDP, European data remaining murky, while China is not exactly robust is likely causing speculative demand in Crude Oil to remain low. Global energy supply is solid and the Middle East conflict remains somewhat muted.

6. Whipsaw Gains: Major U.S equity indices moved upwards as the Dow 30, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 all produced better weekly results. However, improved momentum mostly occurred as equities reversed from nervous lows on Wednesday. The Dow 30 and S&P 500 are within sight of apex values, while the Nasdaq isn’t far behind. U.S Treasury yields also dropped lower via their totals for the week with the 5, 7, and 10 Year Notes approaching yields last seen in the spring of 2023. The 30 Year Bonds are traversing lower too, but will have to penetrate early 2024 levels to then challenge depths from early 2023.

5. Inflation: Global central banks are having a large internal debate about their target inflation numbers. Trying to agree on what the neutral rate – mean average – over the next year should be is causing central banks to remain cautious about inflation projections. While it is clearly evident that Europe and the U.S are facing economic headwinds the ECB, Fed and BoE seemingly refuse to step on the gas pedal and become aggressively dovish. However, financial institutions who frequently use their mid-term outlooks as guidance continue to lean into their trading positions and seemingly wager on the central banks having to become more dovish. How much can each central bank cut by over the next 6 months? Why not cut by 0.50% to inject easier borrowing rates now? Because apparently it seems all the central banks remain nervous about inflation remaining stubborn. The word stagflation still comes to mind. The decline in Crude Oil prices seen the past few weeks may be a hopeful sign for lower costs.

4. USD/JPY: The currency pair finished trading near the 140.775 ratio on Friday. Trading in the USD/JPY appears to be driven by the notion that financial institutions believe the U.S Federal Reserve is going to have to cut the Federal Funds Rate by 0.75% over the next six months. Behavioral sentiment has a breathtaking history of producing strong trends in the USD/JPY. The Bank of Japan will announce their Monetary Policy Statement on the 20th of September. The USD/JPY was trading near 162.000 in July and its decline lower seems to have surprised some, but why? The BoJ is likely going to sound cautious this coming week, but sitting on their hands and allowing their global counterparts to become more dovish may be enough to keep the USD/JPY within its lower price realm.

3. China Data: Numbers published early this morning showed that New Home Prices continue to fall, Industrial Production has decreased, Retail Sales have dropped, and the Unemployment Rate has risen. China’s economy is suffering. The USD/CYN looks too low at the current rate of 7.0925. The Shanghai Composite (SSE) has fallen to nearly 2,704 and touching lows from early February of 2024. The SSE is down roughly -13.46% over the last year. The Chinese government’s desire to manage the economy with a tight grip continues to produce fractures and should be reconsidered.

2. Gold: The precious metal finished Friday’s trading near 2,577.00. Yesterday’s values hit all-time record prices for Gold versus the USD. The 2,586.00 vicinity was touched before reversing slightly lower. The ability to remain near apex highs going into the weekend highlights large traders likely still have a taste for gold and that long-term investors remain bullish. Is nervousness due to perceived global central bank ineptitude helping to create more gold buying? Short-term speculators need to remain careful within these heights.

1. FOMC Prediction: The European Central Bank’s decision to cut by only 0.25% this past Thursday is almost a sure sign the Federal Reserve will mirror the ECB on the 18th of September. Last week’s prediction by AMT that the ECB would only cut by 0.25% proved to be true, and our outlook for the FOMC’s Federal Fund Rate decision is also a cautious 0.25% cut. While the U.S Consumer Price Index and PPI info published this past Wednesday and Thursday showed inflation is under control, the data also shows a stubborn streak. However, an erosion of inflation is taking place and while the target ‘neutral’ rate is likely being debated behind closed doors, it is also apparent to most outside observers that the Fed is being too cautious and will be ‘forced’ to cut this coming week, November 2024, and early in 2025.

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Notions for the 30th of August 2024

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Notions for the 30th of August 2024

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10. Ellis Park, Johannesburg: The Springboks will face the All Blacks on Saturday in round three of the Rugby Championship. One of the greatest rivalries in sports will match South Africa who is looking to cement their current team’s legacy as one of the best rugby squads ever, versus New Zealand who is looking for revenge having lost to the Springboks in the World Cup Final in October 2023.

9. Labor Day: Short-term speculators should be mindful that today’s volumes may be thin due to U.S financial institutions allowing employees to leave early for a long weekend. While all the major U.S exchanges will be operating, transaction volumes will become lackluster as the day progresses with the last U.S summer holiday approaching.

8. Precious Future: Gold is traversing around 2,520.00 USD per ounce this morning, as Bitcoin is near 59,500 USD as of this writing. The precious metal was around 2,000.00 much of February, while Bitcoin began flirting with 59,000 and 60,000 in late February after starting that month near 43,000 USD. While influencers proclaim the future is digital with Bitcoin, Gold continues to shine and has a historical track record as a store of value.

7. Pavel Durov: The CEO of Telegram was released on Wednesday after posting 5 million EUR as bail, he must stay in France and faces a handful of charges. Russia, the UAE and high profile people, including Elon Musk, have publicly criticized France for Durov’s arrest last Saturday. Free speech advocates are largely against the arrest of Durov, while France contends Durov has not been forthcoming about data which has been shared on Telegram to conduct criminal enterprises. Julian Assange was arrested in 2019 in Britain and was only released in June of this year, promptly leaving for Australia.

6. Commodities: The price of WTI Crude Oil is near 76.00 USD and remains in a fairly stable range, Cocoa remains within sight of 9,000.00 as it trades around 8,950.00 this morning. And the prices for Coffee via Robusta and Arabica continue to flirt with apex highs. Day trading wagers on these commodities should be done carefully before the U.S holiday.

5. Art of Speaking: Kamala Harris is being criticized for her reliance on teleprompters as some pundits wonder loudly when she will sit for an unscripted interview. Donald Trump faces continued scrutiny for speaking extemporaneously, and everyone knows this characteristic is not going to change. The race for the White House appears tight. The televised debate between the candidates remains on the schedule for the 10th of September and its format may present the opportunity for verbal fireworks.

4. Eastern Europe: The Russian-Ukrainian war has been escalating the past few weeks as both sides appear to be working with the belief they need to create facts on the ground over the next few months. The potential of a victory by Donald Trump in the U.S may be pushing Russia and the Ukraine into a mode which hopes they can bolster their respective negotiating positions, this if the newly elected U.S President can get the warring sides to discuss an endgame.

3. China: The nation faces difficult economic circumstances and tries to maintain stability via Yuan and bonds interventions. Also, the foreign policy stance of China is growing tensions with the Philippines. The long standing disagreement about Taiwan’s sovereignty is well documented, but Chinese naval activity in the South China Sea is raising alarm bells among some political analysts. Manufacturing PMI results will be published by China early on Saturday. Economic data from the nation is being inspected by foreign investors carefully who are looking for long-term yields, but are troubled about transparency and the potential of sudden policy changes.

As an aside, APEC will conduct its annual meeting in November from the 10th until the 16th in Peru. Both Joe Biden and Xi Jinping will attend. Depending on Biden’s health and the outcome of the U.S Presidential Election on the 5th of November, this Asian-Pacific Economic Cooperation Forum will prove important.

2. U.S Data: Jerome Powell’s capitulation last Friday via his public statement that the Fed needs to cut interest rates fueled a weaker USD. Forex has seemingly priced in a combined 0.50% basis cut via the Fed for September and November. Yesterday’s stronger than anticipated U.S GDP growth and inflation reports however created headwinds, which caused outlook jitters. Today’s Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index monthly gauge is expected to come in with a gain of 0.2%. If the inflation report can match the anticipated result this may calm Forex, equity indices, and Treasury yields before going into the long holiday weekend. Next Friday U.S Non-Farm Employment Change numbers will be published. Today’s trading may be muted because of thin volumes, but day traders should expect volatility to increase starting next Tuesday.

1. Competition: Nvidia was valued around 47.50 USD per share this time last year, as of today the price is near 117.60. Intel’s value was approximately 34.50 USD this time last year, as of today the price is about 20.13 per share. Intel appears to be valued as a commodity supply company nowadays by some investors, while Nvidia’s outlook remains within the auspices of a highly anticipated technological future. Where will both companies values be this time next year?

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Rays of Light for 23rd of August

by with No Comment AMT MarketsArtificial IntelligenceFeatured Highlights

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Rays of Light for 23rd of August

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10. Word of the Day: Like crepuscular animals which are active during twilight, large market players are ruminating as their summer hiatus draws to an end over the next week and a half. Plans for coming hunts are being formulated as leisure concludes for financial institutions preparing to work in the shadows.

9. Scrolling Failures: Lack of solid results on search engines are becoming a growing annoyance. Is it just us? An abundance of poor information via defined searches on the internet and finding what is sought is becoming increasingly problematic. Is AI being allowed to do too much while still too dumb? AI doesn’t know when it is wrong. Competitors to Google and others are sought.

8. How Dare Us: The postponement of imposed dates regarding energy policy changes are multiplying. The end for the classical use of oil, coal and nuclear is not near. Efficient power is evolving, but this will have to include ‘antique’ generation and grids. The demand for electric vehicles are being confronted with declining sales via U.S consumers. Tangible technology needs precise planning, not apocalyptic rhetoric which tries to scare people.

7. Middle East Calm: The storm is being limited within a tea cup for the moment. The potential for a dangerous boiling painful mess still exists. ‘Serenity now’ remains a mantra for those who need to pay attention as chagrin and anxiousness mix.

6. Fed Retreat: The FOMC Meeting Minutes released this week showed some Fed members remained cautious, while others banged the drum louder regarding interest rate cuts. However, a Fed Funds Rate reduction is almost a 100% certainty for the 18th of September. The question now is what the Fed will do in November. Fed Chairman Powell and a slew of other renowned global central bankers will speak today and tomorrow at the Jackson Hole Symposium. Financial institutions largely believe they know what is going to be said, but comments from Bank of Japan and Brazilian leadership could prove to be informative and entertaining for central bank nerds. Monday could be volatile for USD/BRL traders.

5. VIX: The CBOE’s Volatility Index climbed to the 56 vicinity on the 5th of August as panic grew via widespread overreactions to hyperbole ripping through the markets. The fear gauge is near the 17.55 ratio as of this writing. Market calm has resumed across the board as financial institutions and day traders have been able to achieve a pleasant tone again. Traders who use the VIX as a template regarding the potential of risks suddenly cascading into assets should keep their eyes on the index, which went to a low around the 14.45 mark on Monday. Yet, the slight incremental climb the past few days could be coming from folks still speculating on volatility which may not develop near-term.

4. Barometers: Gold is lingering slightly below 2,500.00 for the moment, this after having achieved a record high on Tuesday when it touched the 2532.00 apex. WTI Crude Oil is near 74.00 USD per barrel and is maintaining a polite value range. Speculatively, Cocoa is again above 9,000 USD per ton and Bitcoin has fought its way above 61,000 this morning. Risk appetite remains stable for the moment.

3. Forex: USD/JPY, EUR/USD, even the USD/ZAR have been able to hold onto their recent trends as USD centric weakness remains viable. Traders who were looking for huge moves in FX this week have likely been disappointed. Retail speculators need to understand financial institutions have been positioning for a weaker USD since the tail end of July. Market players may be quite pleased regarding current Forex equilibrium, which may allow technical traders the ability to take advantage of existing behavioral sentiment, this as reversals flourish and the next big wave of impetus is awaited. Next Thursday’s U.S Preliminary GDP numbers may deliver some noise.

2. Cassandras: Market experts who proclaimed a long-term stock market crash in early August have crawled back into their caves to take cover and percolate their next fear mongering tactics. This after the latest round of predicted catastrophes have vanished. While the major U.S stock indices are not at record highs, they have recovered plenty of lost ground and appear ready for more days in the sun.

1. Political Winds: The curtain closed on the Democratic National Convention in Chicago last night without a serious hiccup. Kamala Harris and Donald Trump now enter a crucial phase of campaigning, and will get plenty of attention as they go into attack mode. The next big event for Harris and Trump will be their televised debate on the 10th of September. Will the outcome prove to be a devastating storm for one of the candidates?

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Remarks for the 14th of July 2024

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Remarks for the 14th of July 2024

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10. Words of the Day: Political rhetoric is using platitudes and subterfuge camouflaging verbal nonsense, masking a vacuum of non-results and causing fatigue of populist promises.

9. Harris Prediction: After the NATO press conference in which Biden was more lucid but still made mistakes, it is beginning to feel like Kamala Harris is being given room to audition for the Presidency by the Democratic machine. If her polling numbers show improvement over the next couple of weeks, look for Harris to replace Biden at the DNC in Chicago, if her polling numbers are not good enough in the eyes of the elite power brokers, it is possible Biden may be asked to give up his delegates, allowing for an open convention.

8: Zombie Inflation: Data results via the U.S CPI caused a reaction in the broad markets, and volatility in Forex. While the broad monthly Consumer Price Index number on Thursday was minus -0.1%, the PPI numbers on Friday came in higher than expected causing some to feel that inflation remains a plague. However, if the Producer Price Index was interpreted as being higher because rising prices are coming via more expensive employee costs (which might see an end to the cycle sooner rather than later if jobs data continues to weaken) this is why there might not have been a violent Forex reversal on Friday. And Consumer Sentiment numbers from the University of Michigan came in below expectations again, and inflation expectations via the consumer survey showed some erosion.

7. Federal Fund Rates: Financial institutions have clearly begun to factor in the belief an interest rate cut will occur in September. The Fed which has been cautious consistently the past seven months may now have enough ammunition to consider becoming more dovish. A September interest rate cut has certainly been factored into Forex and Treasury yields, and there is a growing tide of sentiment which believes the weaker GDP numbers combined with the potential of less inflation could spark additional Federal Funds Rate cuts this calendar year. Outlook fueled by optimism regarding a more dovish Fed could be a factor in the markets the remainder of July.

6. Gold and Silver: Commodity prices are soaring as speculators pursue bullish trends. Gold finished this week above 2,410.00 USD. Silver is traversing above 30.00 USD per ounce for the first time since 2011 and 2012. These two metals are not always correlated, and day traders should remember Silver remains a rather easily mined commodity which sometimes influences downwards pressure because supply can be increased. Having said that, Gold and Silver have had solid bullish trends since February of this year.

5. Thaw: Bitcoin is near 60,000 as of this writing. The crypto winter has seemingly ended and many folks are standing in the sunlight and proclaiming long-term projections of Bitcoin as it maintains a higher price range. It should be remembered the most significant percentage of trading volumes within cryptos reside heavily within the top tier, and the ‘assets’ ranked lower remain in wagering cesspools. Cryptocurrency remains speculatively dangerous, and largely a place to move illicit cash with the perception the money can be kept ‘dark’.

4. USD/JPY: The Bank of Japan won last week’s game of fire. The U.S Consumer Price Index numbers dealt a blow to the blind fury of speculative buying in the USD/JPY, and there is also a belief among many that the BoJ added onto the selling momentum of the currency pair too with a well timed intervention. The currency pair which was near the 161.640 juncture suddenly dived to nearly 157.420. The USD/JPY has gone into this weekend near the 157.900 ratio. The USD/JPY saga is not finished yet, and froth via bullish endeavors remains dangerous. Day traders here have been warned.

3. China: Friday’s Trade Balance numbers were good, compared to the rather weak CPI results seen on the 10th of July which were negative. China’s Communist Central Committee begins a Plenary Session tomorrow until the 18th. Will they speak in platitudes? The USD/CNY has certainly seen a ‘soft’ devaluation since February of this year, but the currency pair did go into the weekend near the 7.2500 mark which is off the high of 7.2765 seen this past Thursday. China still must improve consumer sentiment domestically and this remains a difficult struggle as ramifications from the implosion in China housing values mires the landscape. GDP numbers will come from the nation on Monday.

2. Behavioral Sentiment: Equities and indices, Forex, and commodities are all experiencing risk appetite permutations. While it might be tempting for retail traders to bet on lower reversals of trends, sometimes its much easier to simply ride optimistic waves. Certainly there will be days when financial assets struggle, but the apex heights of the Dow Jones 30, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 should be treated with respect. Treasury yields are at mid-term depths and appear ready to traverse lower.

1. Trump: The attempted assassination of Donald Trump on Saturday in Pennsylvania will galvanize his supporters and likely push many people towards voting for him November. The amount of vitriol Trump has endured from his political opponents including the highest echelons of the Democrats and many in the media needs to be contemplated and quieted. Opposition to political ideology is fine, but the use of hyperbolic musings has led the U.S to a dangerous place. It would be wise for pragmatic adults to rejoin political discourse. Traders should watch the financial markets early this week to see if the U.S political front causes a reaction.

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Punches for the 28th of June 2024

by with No Comment CommoditiesCorporateCryptocurrencies

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Punches for the 28th of June 2024

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10. Cricket: The ICC T20 World Cup Championship will feature South Africa vs. India. The two teams are familiar with each other competitively and the final match will be held at the Kensington Oval in Bridgetown, Barbados on Saturday.

9. Selling Pressure: Lows are being challenged in Bitcoin as it hovers above 61,000.00 USD. Cocoa has stumbled dramatically this week and is below 8,000.00 per metric ton. Who will be courageous and wager on reversals higher? Speculators should remain cautious and understand price velocity that looks tantalizing can also prove costly to trading accounts.

8. Grounded: Boeing’s Starliner remains docked to the International Space Station. Problems have plagued The Boeing Company the past handful of months, and their ambitions of becoming a power within NASA’s explorations are also underachieving. SpaceX and Airbus are certainly paying attention to Boeing’s ineffectiveness.

7. Teetering: The African National Congress and Democratic Alliance political parties in South Africa are feuding about how coalition power will be shared within the National Unity Government. The USD/ZAR has become volatile and is near 18.21000 as tensions mount and reversals hit. Financial institutions are waiting for an optimistic resolution, while also fearing the possibility of an abandonment to positive visions.

6. Inflation: Core Personal Consumer Expenditures Price Index statistics will be released today from the U.S. Yesterday’s GDP Price Index came in slightly higher than anticipated which kept USD centric bullish positions relatively strong. However, other American statistics have weakened significantly and the mid-term looks troubling for the U.S economically. Stagflation remains a concern. The Federal Reserve is likely hoping to see today’s PCE numbers come in weaker than expected, which would allow the central bank to hint towards Federal Fund Rate cuts later this year.

5. Ennui: President Macron could find his political power further eclipsed after France’s first round voting results this coming Sunday. French voters appear ready to deliver a resounding message of dissatisfaction to the listless ruling government. Election turnout statistics should be watched. The second round of voting will be on the 7th of July. Financial institutions have braced for a shift of power already, but the EUR/USD will still produce volatility in the days ahead.

4. Geopolitical Risks: Russia, China and their allies are likely considering how they will prepare for a potential change in the U.S White House. Foreign policy following last night’s debate between Biden and Trump must be planned. The fact that Trump is viewed as a rather flamboyant personality and not bound by cautious diplomatic attitudes creates a calculus that U.S adversaries will have to consider. While the potential exists that some nations may try to be more aggressive now, they also know that a Trump victory in November would change the international political landscape long-term.

3. Bank of Japan: The Core Tokyo Consumer Price Index produced a gain of 2.1%, which was above the forecasted amount of 2.0% earlier today. The BoJ continues to remain far too dovish regarding interest rate policy and financial institutions are buying the USD/JPY in massive waves. The USD/JPY is around 160.750 as of this writing and did traverse above 161.000 earlier, these are Forex levels not seen since the late 1980’s for the USD/JPY. Japan’s attempt to stimulate the economy with a weaker Japanese Yen may work, but the U.S and others may start to look at the BoJ’s soft devaluation in a very negative light. Speculators of the currency pair need to be extremely careful, because the BoJ has the ability to intervene violently and cause momentary spikes which could prove deadly for day traders trying to take advantage of the outlandish bullish trend.

2. Behavioral Sentiment: Markets will be a looking glass into the future today, this as trading houses react to the realization that Donald Trump is likely going to be the next U.S President. While there are no guarantees regarding the U.S election outcome yet, the broad markets will certainly feel a shift of momentum in the coming days as large players adjust from a cautious approach to more aggressive postures regarding a Trump presidency. U.S equity indices remain near record highs, and the potential of a more business friendly White House which doesn’t threaten tax hikes on U.S corporations will likely affect speculative outlooks.

1. Power: The resounding defeat of Joe Biden last night in the Presidential debate will spark a heated battle among Democratic power brokers. Biden will certainly be asked to step aside after last night’s poor performance. However, Biden is stubborn, and Dem leaders like Nancy Pelosi and Barak Obama among others will have a difficult task to try and convince Biden for the sake of the nation that he must do the honorable thing and release his political delegates at the August Democratic National Convention in Chicago. If this doesn’t happen, the Republicans may be able to achieve a landslide victory by taking control of not only the White House but the Senate too, along with maintaining power in the House of Representatives. All the camouflage in the world last night, including the liberal media, couldn’t mask the inability of Joe Biden to be coherent.

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Forex Debate and Coming Impetus this Week for Speculators

by with No Comment AMT MarketsEconomic CalendarFeatured Highlights

Forex Debate and Coming Impetus this Week for Speculators

In many respects the broad markets feel as if they are waiting for big news and this may not be delivered as wanted. Yes, the debate between Biden and Trump this Thursday will get attention, but unless there is a major television moment the outcome is not likely going to give a final affirmation regarding the U.S election results in November. Some people may be counting on Biden to literally misstep, and for Trump to say something incredibly outlandish, but it is also possible the debate disappoints even as entertainment. Perhaps the Presidential debate will deliver sideways action like the broad markets have the past week, leaving us with a desire for more.

Financial institutions will look at U.S growth numbers this coming Thursday certainly, and also keep their eyes on the upcoming Sunday vote in France on the 30th which might prove rather remarkable. The EUR/USD is certainly back within its lower depths when a six month chart is inspected, and traders will react to France’s election this weekend, but it should be remembered the second and vital round of voting will not occur until the 7th of July. Until then, reactionary and precautionary results in the EUR/USD may produce headaches. The EUR does look oversold, but timeframes and the ability to hold a position may prove tough for short-term traders hoping for a wave of optimism to suddenly take hold and create a strong trend.

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EUR/USD Six Month Chart on the 25th of June 2024

Not to be outdone the U.K is gaining plenty of attention because of its election on the 4th of July, but in this case it seems more like a coronation for the Labour Party and only a question about how devastating the carnage will be for the Tories. Financial institutions may have already factored in their perceived outlooks regarding the U.K vote into the GBP/USD. The currency pair will certainly react to the British election results, but financial institutions may have less to fear regarding sudden volatility of the British Pound, compared to the EUR/USD which could still have days ahead when it doesn’t trade in a USD correlated manner due to E.U political unknowns.

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Monday, 24th of June, Germany Ifo Business Climate – the reading produced a drop to 88.6, missing the estimate of 89.4. Germany economic pressures remain negative and this may keep the idea alive that the ECB should be considering another interest rate cut. However, because the European Central Bank cut its Main Refinancing Rate recently and the U.S Fed continues to look rather neutral, it seems unlikely the ECB will decide to suddenly become the only proactive central bank around over the mid-term. Meaning, the ECB may stay conservative and want to wait on others to join the interest rate cut party, this before they create more unbalanced carry trade opportunities which could lower the value of the EUR/USD too much.

Tuesday, 25th of June, U.S CB Consumer Confidence – the reading will certainly be watched by investors, but will it create bedlam if there is surprise for equities or Forex? The likely answer is no. Behavioral sentiment has become flustered and shifted over the past handful of months, and this will create some caution no matter what today’s consumer reading says. Large financial institutions will probably stay geared to other upcoming data which will be considered more important.

Wednesday, 26th of June, U.S New Home Sales – a slight uptick in the amount of housing sales is expected. However, because of higher interest rates in the U.S via the cost of mortgages this number is likely to remain rather muted. For interested traders a look at the previous revisions of the New Home Sales data will prove interesting. The outcome of this reading should be treated with a bit of skepticism because it may be changed down the road. Unless there is a huge surprise the impact of this report may be rather calm, no matter what media narrative dictates.

Thursday, 27th of June, U.K Bank of England Governor – Andrew Bailey will speak about the Financial Stability Report. Bailey is certain to add some insights regarding the BoE’s neutral policy stance taken last week regarding interest rates, but more hints regarding potential cuts later this summer and possibly late this year again may be given. Economic data from the U.K remains troubling. The Bank of England may want to remain cautious because of inflation concerns, but financial institutions would like to see a more proactive dovish stance. Bailey might also talk about the potential affects from the U.K election, but he will have to be careful to make sure it doesn’t sound like he is taking a political side.

Thursday, 27th of June, U.S Gross Domestic Product and GDP Price Index – these two reports will impact the financial markets. The growth and inflation data will be examined by all financial institutions and generate trading reactions. The GDP growth number is expected to come at 1.4%, which is slightly higher than the previous report which posted a 1.3% result. Any number below 2.0% growth will be considered as lackluster by most financial analysts. Traders will then turn their attention to the inflation results which are supposed to match the 3.0% gain from the last Price Index report. If this number can somehow come in below expectations, this could propel some weakness in the USD. However, traders should be careful and remember U.S economic data the past handful of months has produced surprises which have created dangerous and choppy Forex conditions.

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USD/JPY Five Day Chart on the 25th of June 2024

Friday, 28th of June, Japan Tokyo Core CPI – a gain of 2.0% is anticipated. The USD/JPY should be watched carefully. Early this Monday the BoJ likely tried an intervention in the Japanese Yen, but the USD/JPY only had a momentary swift selloff. As of this writing (Tuesday the 25th of June) the USD/JPY is trading near the 159.345 ratio which is very high when historical comparisons are considered. If the inflation number comes in with a 2.0% result or higher this could set off fireworks in the USD/JPY. Financial institutions clearly believe the BoJ should raise their interest rate by at least 0.25%, but the Japanese government appears keen on trying to keep the Japanese Yen weak to help GDP via exports from the nation. The Bank of Japan needs to be given attention. Speculators and the BoJ are battling against each other.

Friday, 28th of June, U.S Core PCE Price Index – the Personal Consumer Expenditures inflation report is forecasted to produce a gain of only 0.1% compared to the previous result of 0.2%. If the PCE Price Index does turn in the anticipated result, and the GDP Price Index from Thursday met expectations or came in lower, this could cause more speculative selling of the USD. However, if the inflation results come in stronger than expected Forex traders could see bullish USD buying which again challenges sellers abruptly.

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Missiles for the 21st of June 2024

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Missiles for the 21st of June 2024

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10. Say Hey Kid: Baseball legend Willie Mays passed away earlier this week. He was a beloved player on the New York and San Francisco Giants in the 1950s, 1960s, and early 1970s. He might have been the best five tool baseball player of all-time.

9. AI Apocalypse: Talk about selling Nvidia shares to cash out of the super hot Artificial Intelligence tech boom on Wall Street might be considered the safe thing to do in order to protect profits. However, betting on the existing ‘machine learning’ gold rush in the stock markets to possibly end soon, thus turning into a ‘dot com’ like bubble bursting in the spring of 2000 could be misguided. The ‘dot com’ exuberance essentially started in 1995 and ran for almost five full years. The Artificial Intelligence surge may still have a lot of room to run.

8. Simmering Crypto: Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Binance Coin all remain at lofty prices, but they have lost value since touching highs in the first week of June. Trading volume of cryptos – including BTC/USD – is still below its peak of 2021 and early 2022. While the introduction of ETF products for Bitcoin has gotten institutional money involved, many individual ex-traders remain cautious. Former illustrious speculative plays like Dogecoin and Shiba Inu have turned into niche wagering cesspools.

7. Hezbollah Poker: Hassan Nasrallah delivered a surprise statement earlier this week when he proclaimed if there is an escalation between Hezbollah and Israel, that Cyprus could be attacked by missiles. The U.K still maintains sovereign military bases at Akrotiri and Dhekelia on the island of Cyprus. Direct fire from Hezbollah on an E.U member nation would be a major intensification of the Middle East conflict. Nasrallah may believe the rather limited response by the West to the Houthis attacks in the Red and Arabian seas, makes his threats on Cyprus an objective guise to get the West to pressure Israel to hold their fire.

6. Commodity Watch: WTI Crude Oil price is over 81.00 USD as of this writing and Gold is near 2365.00 per ounce. The price of energy needs to be watched because of its potential impact of inflation. WTI prices have been rather tame the past two and half months, but have climbed the past week. The precious metal remains within sight of highs and has been lingering within an elevated range since the middle of April. Cocoa for those interested is back below 10,000.00 USD per metric ton.

5. Shifting Sentiment: The Mexican Peso and Brazilian Real have lost value as politics in Mexico and Brazil are causing nervousness among financial institutions. The governing political parties in both nations are trying to reach for new powers, and the selloff of the two currencies against the USD have been clear. Morena, the leftist political party governing Mexico, is seeking controversial judicial reform which is seen as an attempt to gain more political influence. Lula da Silva’s Workers’ Party is attempting to take the head of the Central Bank of Brazil, Roberto Campos Neto, to court to try and muzzle his fiscal viewpoints. The USD/MXN is near 18.31650 and the USD/BRL is around 5.4539 as of this writing. Rand traders who have seen a bearish USD/ZAR trend emerge the past week and a half because of renewed optimism in South Africa might find the spats in Mexico and Brazil intriguing.

4. Euro Barometer: The first French election will be held on the 30th of June, the second on the 7th of July. The contest is shaping up as a election between the Left and Right. Political coalitions are being formed rapidly. The attempt to coalesce on the Left is an obvious sign that politicians feel threatened with the prospect of sweeping losses. Media noise is certain to boom and be exaggerated in the coming days as warnings about this election potentially affecting all of humankind litters the airwaves. Macron and other politicians may find tough days ahead as they apologize for policy failures and get punished via the election outcomes. The EUR/USD is close to 1.06931 for the moment.

3. China Woes: Economic data from the housing sector continues to show a downwards trajectory regarding home values in the nation, and it is having an impact on consumers as their net worth suffers and affects spending habits. Not only are property values still dropping at a rapid pace, but recent Factory output data has come in below expectations. China is tentatively scheduled to release Foreign Direct Investment numbers soon.

2. Summer Doldrums: Investor behavioral sentiment appears to be in a wait and see mode as as more impetus is awaited and large players grow cautious. The U.S will issue PMI manufacturing and services data today, but the results will have a limited effect. The U.S Juneteenth holiday which was celebrated on Wednesday and the return of traders yesterday did not rejuvenate optimism. The Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 lost some ground. While the Dow 30 did gain slightly yesterday, the index has been treading water compared to the Nasdaq and S&P over the past month.

1. Geriatric Debate: Next Thursday the 27th of June, President Biden and former President Trump will debate. The televised event will be watched by American voters and the world. Not only will the debate deliver potential impetus to financial assets if there is a clear winner, but it may provide a large wagering environment for betters who gamble on which Presidential candidate will be the first to go off script. People in the U.S desire a discussion about the economy, foreign policy and immigration, this while hoping for a lack of mishaps, hyperbole and demagoguery which is unfortunately quite likely.

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Blossoms for the 31st of May 2024

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Blossoms for the 31st of May 2024

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10. European Supremacy: The NBA Championship between Boston and Dallas is set to begin on the 6th of June. If the Dallas Mavericks win, it will mean Giannis Antetokounmpo in 2021, Nikola Jokic in 2023, and Luka Doncic in 2024 were victors, and are cementing the terrain as the best players.

9. Brisk Breeze: The need for ‘chill’ among AI and server companies isn’t only about attitude. The advent of quantum computing will add to the wintry demands. Vertiv, Asia Vital Components, and Auras Technology are a few of the enterprises in the industrial environment sector helping deliver precision cooling for the technologies to work efficiently.

8. Glitches: Stalled data within the S&P 500 and Dow Jones 30 for their index calculations took place yesterday for nearly one hour, but individual trading within companies via stock prices appears to have been unaffected. Futures trading for the two indices weren’t affected. On Monday the 18th of March, Nasdaq suffered a tech problem that stopped pre-market trading for a couple of hours.

7. OPEC: The cartel will conduct a one day online meeting this coming Sunday. Production levels will be discussed, among other issues. The price of WTI Crude Oil as of this writing is below 78.00 USD per barrel. While news remains stuck in hyperbole from the Middle East, the price of Crude Oil has declined since the first week of April.

6. Conviction: Donald Trump was found guilty in a NYC courtroom yesterday, but the verdict is certain to be appealed. The law of unintended consequences could come into play from the U.S as reactions generate. The perceived notion that ineffectual and non-credible leadership is mounting in the U.S, lends credence to some people around the globe regarding dwindling American exceptionalism.

5. Results: South Africa voting counts will be finalized sometime this weekend, India’s election count will be known on the 4th of June. The unknown outcomes are affecting the USD/ZAR and USD/INR, and more volatility in the currency pairs should be expected early next week.

4. Coincident: GDP results came in around their expectations yesterday. Growth numbers produced a gain of 1.3%, while the GDP Price Index showed a 3.0% climb. The data produced does show the U.S economy is slowing and is another ripple to be considered by analysts and traders.

3. USD/JPY: The Bank of Japan appears to be betting on weaker U.S data to continue, and potential dovish Fed rhetoric on the 12th of June to propel the USD/JPY lower, thus helping the BoJ to remain on the sideline and avoid an intervention for the moment. The BoJ will release their Policy Rate decision on the 14th of June and many eyes will be on the central bank’s Monetary Policy Statement.

2. Inflation: The Core PCE Price Index report outcome today is anticipated to be around the 0.3% ratio. The Federal Reserve pays plenty of attention to this publication and if the number meets the expectation or comes in below it, this could cause a repeat of the Fed’s dovish December 2023 FOMC Statement. Financial institutions have already begun wagering that the Federal Funds Rate could be cut this summer and later again this year. Many assets will react to today’s inflation report.

1. Behavioral Sentiment: Nervous price action has been seen in the equity indices and Forex this week. Investors may have felt they got a little ahead of their risk appetite curve and now appear to be waiting on more solid impetus to reconfirm their outlooks. Choppy price action has certainly been fueled by U.S Treasury yields which increased earlier this week. Losses in the S&P 500, Dow 30 and Nasdaq the past handful of days are now waiting for buyers to reemerge. The question day traders may want to consider is if financial institutions and large investors believe assets will cost less next week, or if prices have now hit worthwhile support levels which will spur on buying today?