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U.S Growth (Lack of it) and Inflation Report Key to End of Week

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

U.S Growth (Lack of it) and Inflation Report Key to End of Week

Day traders may believe they are being confronted by another wave of data and news which is going to make their endeavors more difficult. The announcement by Joe Biden that he will not run for re-election in November however was not a major surprise. The handwriting on the proverbial wall has been clear for nearly a month that Biden was under immense pressure to step aside. It appears Kamala Harris will get the Democratic nomination per reports that delegates are starting to pledge their loyalty.

Financial markets which may have been interpreted yesterday as cautious due to the Biden and Harris news may actually not have had a tremendous effect. It is quite possible investors and traders have started to position their assets for a Trump victory. Love him or hate him, the polling numbers appear to suggest the Republicans are potentially going to win big in November. Except the word November is the key, there are still over 100 days for things to go wrong for the Republicans. Nothing is settled and day traders need to understand that a lot can change. Economic data from the U.S will be plentiful in the coming days. Also, China has lowered key borrowing costs in an effort to try and fuel spending in the nation as consumers remain hesitant and a sign the nation is battling a troubling economy.

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EUR/USD Five Day Chart on the 23rd July 2024

Traders who have been trying their hand in Forex have seen the EUR/USD and GBP/USD sink in value via short-term price changes. While retail speculators may look at the moves over the past day as vicious, they should note that since Wednesday of last week the USD has been stronger in Forex. It is doubtful financial institutions were betting on Biden to drop out of the race last week or for China to lower their interest rates. What in fact might be playing out is the possibility that most financial institutions believe the USD had been oversold and now want to position for the economic statistics coming this week. Results this week will help motivate notions the Federal Reserve will have to become dovish in September and proclaim a weaker U.S economic outlook through the end of this year, or for more idle chatter as the Fed undertakes a soundtrack which pleads for caution if inflation numbers remain stubborn.

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USD/CNY One Year Chart on the 23rd July 2024

Monday, 22nd July, China One and Five Year Loan Prime Rates – borrowing costs were cut officially yesterday. The interest rate reductions of 0.10% were small, but China hopes this change helps propel stimulus for its struggling economy. It may not. But before folks sell China short, the nation continues to be a dynamic economic and political force and this power is not going to abate soon. The USD/CNY has incrementally risen since the start of 2024, but it is still below the higher values seen from August into early November of last year. It seems possible the Chinese government will continue to allow the Yuan to lose value in an attempt to reignite export.

Tuesday, 23rd July, U.S Existing Home Sales – the past few months have seen a decrease in the housing data. However, last month’s outcome was stronger than anticipated. These numbers tend to get a lot of fanfare, because they are a solid barometer of U.S outlook regarding interest rates and potential inflation. If folks feel like they should not sell their homes because their current payments are cheaper via their existing mortgages compared to taking on higher costs which are being offered now due to more expensive interest rates, this causes existing home sales to often fall. This because those with homes are not looking to move and simply want to stay in place, also making the potential of finding a house for folks who want to enter the market a more expensive proposition. Again, the outcome of this data is more of a barometer and doesn’t tend to affect financial markets like equities or Forex too much.

Wednesday, 24th July, Europe Manufacturing and Services PMI – E.U nations and the U.K will publish their readings. Last week the ECB kept their key lending rate in place. Political questions still linger in France which is more of a thorn in the side of the E.U than the potential outcome of these data reports. France and Germany expect better results from the Manufacturing and Services numbers. The broad E.U estimate also is optimistic about better results. Great Britain too is expecting better numbers. However, Forex traders will likely be more focused on coming U.S data and stay in a USD centric mindset the remainder of the week when making their forward considerations. And it should be noted the E.U and U.K economies are still struggling.

Wednesday, 24th July, U.S Manufacturing and Services PMI – these reports will be important certainly regarding the sentiment of Purchasing Managers, but the index reading may not be the biggest thing on investors minds. U.S data statistics on Thursday and Friday will be the outcomes that are being prepared for regarding potential affects. The Manufacturing number is expected to match the previous result, the Services figure is anticipated to be weaker.

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U.S Dollar Index Six Month Chart on the 23rd July 2024

Thursday, 25th July, U.S Advance GDP and Advance GDP Price Index – last month’s growth number came in below expectations, this GDP number is anticipated to produce slightly better numbers. The U.S economy via data has been showing signs of slowing the past few months and this Gross Domestic Product number is going to get a lot of airplay not only because of investors who will use it as an outlook because they believe the Fed will be paying attention, but also because the GDP result will start to become a political football for the Republicans and Democrats. If the growth numbers are weaker than anticipated this could propel USD centric weakness. However, day traders need to keep their eyes on the GDP Price Index stats too – if the inflation report comes in below expectations this could also fuel USD selling. Day traders need to pay attention to the USD Index charts later this week. While the short-term has seen some bullishness, the range of the USD remains near important support levels via a six month perspective and as the Fed comes under more scrutiny, traders should expect more tests in the near-term.

Friday, 26th July, U.S Core PCE Price Index – last month’s report matched expectations. If this inflation number meets the anticipated outcome, or comes in below the estimate this could sustain USD centric bearish momentum into the weekend and early next week.

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Punches for the 28th of June 2024

by with No Comment CommoditiesCorporateCryptocurrencies

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Punches for the 28th of June 2024

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10. Cricket: The ICC T20 World Cup Championship will feature South Africa vs. India. The two teams are familiar with each other competitively and the final match will be held at the Kensington Oval in Bridgetown, Barbados on Saturday.

9. Selling Pressure: Lows are being challenged in Bitcoin as it hovers above 61,000.00 USD. Cocoa has stumbled dramatically this week and is below 8,000.00 per metric ton. Who will be courageous and wager on reversals higher? Speculators should remain cautious and understand price velocity that looks tantalizing can also prove costly to trading accounts.

8. Grounded: Boeing’s Starliner remains docked to the International Space Station. Problems have plagued The Boeing Company the past handful of months, and their ambitions of becoming a power within NASA’s explorations are also underachieving. SpaceX and Airbus are certainly paying attention to Boeing’s ineffectiveness.

7. Teetering: The African National Congress and Democratic Alliance political parties in South Africa are feuding about how coalition power will be shared within the National Unity Government. The USD/ZAR has become volatile and is near 18.21000 as tensions mount and reversals hit. Financial institutions are waiting for an optimistic resolution, while also fearing the possibility of an abandonment to positive visions.

6. Inflation: Core Personal Consumer Expenditures Price Index statistics will be released today from the U.S. Yesterday’s GDP Price Index came in slightly higher than anticipated which kept USD centric bullish positions relatively strong. However, other American statistics have weakened significantly and the mid-term looks troubling for the U.S economically. Stagflation remains a concern. The Federal Reserve is likely hoping to see today’s PCE numbers come in weaker than expected, which would allow the central bank to hint towards Federal Fund Rate cuts later this year.

5. Ennui: President Macron could find his political power further eclipsed after France’s first round voting results this coming Sunday. French voters appear ready to deliver a resounding message of dissatisfaction to the listless ruling government. Election turnout statistics should be watched. The second round of voting will be on the 7th of July. Financial institutions have braced for a shift of power already, but the EUR/USD will still produce volatility in the days ahead.

4. Geopolitical Risks: Russia, China and their allies are likely considering how they will prepare for a potential change in the U.S White House. Foreign policy following last night’s debate between Biden and Trump must be planned. The fact that Trump is viewed as a rather flamboyant personality and not bound by cautious diplomatic attitudes creates a calculus that U.S adversaries will have to consider. While the potential exists that some nations may try to be more aggressive now, they also know that a Trump victory in November would change the international political landscape long-term.

3. Bank of Japan: The Core Tokyo Consumer Price Index produced a gain of 2.1%, which was above the forecasted amount of 2.0% earlier today. The BoJ continues to remain far too dovish regarding interest rate policy and financial institutions are buying the USD/JPY in massive waves. The USD/JPY is around 160.750 as of this writing and did traverse above 161.000 earlier, these are Forex levels not seen since the late 1980’s for the USD/JPY. Japan’s attempt to stimulate the economy with a weaker Japanese Yen may work, but the U.S and others may start to look at the BoJ’s soft devaluation in a very negative light. Speculators of the currency pair need to be extremely careful, because the BoJ has the ability to intervene violently and cause momentary spikes which could prove deadly for day traders trying to take advantage of the outlandish bullish trend.

2. Behavioral Sentiment: Markets will be a looking glass into the future today, this as trading houses react to the realization that Donald Trump is likely going to be the next U.S President. While there are no guarantees regarding the U.S election outcome yet, the broad markets will certainly feel a shift of momentum in the coming days as large players adjust from a cautious approach to more aggressive postures regarding a Trump presidency. U.S equity indices remain near record highs, and the potential of a more business friendly White House which doesn’t threaten tax hikes on U.S corporations will likely affect speculative outlooks.

1. Power: The resounding defeat of Joe Biden last night in the Presidential debate will spark a heated battle among Democratic power brokers. Biden will certainly be asked to step aside after last night’s poor performance. However, Biden is stubborn, and Dem leaders like Nancy Pelosi and Barak Obama among others will have a difficult task to try and convince Biden for the sake of the nation that he must do the honorable thing and release his political delegates at the August Democratic National Convention in Chicago. If this doesn’t happen, the Republicans may be able to achieve a landslide victory by taking control of not only the White House but the Senate too, along with maintaining power in the House of Representatives. All the camouflage in the world last night, including the liberal media, couldn’t mask the inability of Joe Biden to be coherent.

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Forex Noise: Influences from Suspicious Data and Rhetoric

by with No Comment AMT MarketsAssetsFeatured Highlights

Forex Noise: Influences from Suspicious Data and Rhetoric

Yesterday’s GDP numbers from Japan served as evidence regarding things to be considered this week regarding the rather complex web central banks and governments have created for financial institutions and day traders. There are plenty of risk events ahead that should be given attention this week.

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USD/JPY Six Month Chart on the 11th of June 2024

The USDJPY is now again in a dangerous value range near-term as it battles within a higher trend. The BoJ did intervene twice – in late April and early May – to try and damper speculative buying zeal of the USD/JPY and stop overly exuberant selling of the JPY. But they have been acting duplicitous as they have also wanted to no doubt allow a weaker Yen – while keeping its value within control. The BoJ has likely been hoping the Fed is going to sound more dovish this week, but if the Fed sounds more cautious than had been anticipated it could set the table for remarkably dynamic price action in the USD/JPY this week and next. If the currency pair moves too high, the BoJ could intervene again, particularly after the Fed’s FOMC pronouncements. So traders need to be careful.

Traders likely know that tomorrow CPI data and the Fed are on the schedule and these will be key events, but the noise generated around the inflation statistics and FOMC rhetoric should be viewed through the eyes of not only potential reactions from financial institution behavioral sentiment, but the possibility many of the ‘big houses’ have already positioned for the outcomes they believe will play out. In other words day traders should be ready for whipsaw trading results in the immediate aftermath of the Fed’s FOMC Statement and Press Conference.

Last week’s Non-Farm Employment Change numbers provided intriguing forensic data which will stir the suspicions of large players in Forex, equity indices and Treasuries. The jobs numbers via the headline stats looked strong. However, it must be said U.S government hiring continues to pick up, which can be looked at as an expensive way to fuel a sugar high for Americans as the States go into an election season.

Also full time workers continue to add part-time work to their tasks, this to battle rising inflation no doubt which is making their paychecks actually less effective, even if they are getting raises and receiving extra money from the added work loads they are taking on. The costs of products in the U.S are outpacing rising income. Also there is a fact that while part-term hiring is on the rise, full-time hiring is declining along with the average amount of hours employees are working per week.

The Gross Domestic Product numbers from the U.S are in decline. If folks push aside their political ideologies and look at real job numbers on the back pages of Friday’s report, and then ask why people are working less hours it is easy to conclude many businesses are actually cutting back expenses in order to try and remain profitable.

All three major stock indices from the U.S remain in sight of record highs, while there is caution surrounding the mid-term, investors still seem to be banking (wagering) on the U.S Fed to become more dovish over the long-term. Part of this analysis includes the belief that weaker GDP will eventually start to impact inflation and that this conclusion will affect the decision making of the U.S Federal Reserve at some juncture.

The Fed finds itself in a precarious position right now. They need to sound cautiously optimistic. It is an election year and they know this too. The Fed cannot publicly say they want growth to slow down because that would irritate most Americans and the White House, but they know full well that slowing GDP eventually should lower demand for products and thus erode inflation pressures.

Yet turning this full circle, the hiring being done by the U.S government, and the as of yet unmentioned fact the U.S  Treasury has increased its sales of Two Year Notes since around November; and the record amount of money the U.S is spending via a slew of suspicious costs like the ‘student loan forgiveness’, creates a muddled and over-heated fiscal policy which could be interpreted as trying to buy votes from those receiving the gifts. In other words, while the Fed is trying to stress it is battling inflation with higher interest rates and anticipates lowering them eventually, other facets of the U.S government are making this difficult because of the record amount of spending and interest rate payments they are making on short term Treasury notes. Jobs and money in the short-term are candy for voters, but the government has problems ahead regarding conflicting policies because it can lead to more economic problems.

So what do financial institutions think, well they are focused on returns for their clients. They are also looking ahead and trying to swim waters that are murky but offer the ability to profit for themselves too. They might believe they know the landscape just as well as the Fed does, and financial institutions also understand what will be said and can be done may be two different things. What to expect moving forward therefore remains confusing over the mid-term for everyone.

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Gold Six Month Chart on the 11th of June 2024

Gold remains highly valued and traders should continue to use it as a barometer. Speculative players are also betting on gold as the USD and its ultimate mid and long-term direction remains complex. The recent downside price action after making record highs in May for the precious metal could reflect the belief the USD is going to become weaker over the mid-term.

Also it should be noted that a handful of commodities are being influenced by an abundance of speculative forces in Copper, Coffee and Cocoa. There has been a lot of talk surrounding the meme stock GameStop the past month. Experienced commodity traders understand the dynamics of speculative influences, pump and dump schemes better than most. Traders tempted to wager in these commodities should ask the same questions speculators in GameStop need to, what is the real value and when will the pin pop the balloon?

Monday, 10th of June, Japan Final GDP Price Index – the result in yesterday’s inflation data came in negative with a climb of 3.4% compared to the expected outcome of 3.6%. This is noteworthy might create more cautious rhetoric from the Bank of Japan later this week.

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GPB/USD One Month Chart on the 11th of June 2024
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EUR/USD Six Month Chart on the 11th of June 2024

Wednesday – 12th of June, U.S Consumer Price Index – the inflation reports will be watched by all market participants in the financial world. The broad monthly CPI result is expected to come in at 0.1%, which would be below the previous months’s outcome, but the Core monthly statistic is anticipated to match the previous result of 0.3%. The CPI numbers will certainly set the tone for the price action to come in Treasuries, equity indices and Forex. Weaker numbers could spark a selloff of the USD. Stronger numbers could create more bullish ability in the USD. No matter the outcome of these CPI numbers, the U.S Federal Reserve will be standing in the shadows and ready to take center stage a handful of hours later.

Wednesday – 12th of June – U.S Federal Reserve’s FOMC Statement and Federal Funds Rate – unless there is a massive surprise tomorrow, there will be no interest rate cut from the Fed. Anyone who was holding onto the idea of a cut, had these wrong thoughts killed off this past Friday because of the ‘better’ jobs numbers report. The Fed’s monetary policy statement is likely to try and sound cautiously optimistic and will certainly include the residuals of the CPI reports filed earlier in the day. However, financial institutions will want to hear if the Fed is leaning into the notion of cutting the Fed Funds Rate late in the summer as a possibility, or if the Fed sounds so cautious that they suggest a rate cut will not happen until later this year. Let’s remember this is an election year. Yes, the Fed is supposed to be an independent body, but like the Treasury there have been signs developing that the ironclad independence of Fed rhetoric can be influenced by U.S government influences from higher up the ladder. Or perhaps it is just all a happy coincidence and the White House, Treasury and Fed all simply agree on policies which remains rather questionable in the eyes of financial institutions and analysts.

EUR/USD Consideration into Wednesday

On this note, price action in the EUR/USD is a good representative of behavioral sentiment and the different ways it can be interpreted. EUR/USD will need attention during and after the U.S Federal Reserves’s policy rhetoric. The ECB cut its interest rate last week. However the ECB refused to say it will cut rates more – leaving the EUR/USD in a neutral position. The EUR/USD sold off on Monday, this after selling off strongly this past Friday after the U.S jobs numbers.

The Fed was looked on as having to become more dovish this Wednesday, but that is now in question because of the suspiciously strong U.S jobs numbers this past Friday. And then there is the outcome of the European Parliament voting this past weekend and a turn towards the right which many in the media seem to believe is the end of the democracy, but may simply represent that some citizens of Europe want a return to law and order, solid economic practices, and respect for their historical and cultural heritage.

Meaning that financial institutions aren’t likely to be too scared about the voting outcomes regarding the European Parliament and are likely more focused on the coming U.S inflation report and FOMC meeting results. However, as much as Forex traders are considered to be sophisticated and financially astute, they still reacted to the stronger selling which was sparked yesterday. Perhaps the EUR/USD results the past couple of days will prove to be like the reaction in the India markets, this when the Nifty 50 selloff occurred early last week upon election results being in question, only to experience a reversal later.

Thursday, 13th of June, U.S Producer Price Index – these inflation reports will be watched, but the reaction to the outcome is likely to be muted because of Wednesday’s dynamics from the U.S and behavioral sentiment which will have already been stirred.

Friday, 14th of June, Bank of Japan – the BoJ is expected to keep its Policy Rate at 0.10%. The BoJ will certainly have been paying attention to the USD/JPY this week, this before they make their public announcements. The Bank of Japan like the Fed is in a difficult spot. The BoJ is trying to fuel a stronger Japanese economy with a weaker Japanese Yen, while trying to sound vigilant in order to stop speculative buyers of the USD/JPY who are trying to take advantage of the trend higher. The threat of intervention should be a concern for day traders, even though the BoJ likely doesn’t want to take this avenue because it is costly and they know the only real way to make the Japanese Yen stronger is by increasing the BoJ Policy Rate which they seemingly do not want to do for the moment.

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Tastings for the 10th of May 2024

by with No Comment AI & Machine LearningAMT MarketsFeatured Highlights

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Tastings for the 10th of May 2024

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10. Word of the day: Ultracrepidarian is a person who speaks assertively about subjects that are beyond their level of knowledge. The world is full of many suspects ladies and gentlemen.

9. Steve Albini: The musician and production sound engineer passed away earlier this week in Chicago. Albini was a pioneer and leader in ‘alternative’ music and battled homogenized corporate music for nearly 40 years. Nirvana, Fugazi, Jimmy Page, the Pixies, P.J Harvey are some of the many that worked with Albini.

8. Bitcoin: BTC/USD continues to hover around the 63,000.00 realm per a three month technical chart perspective. Bitcoin’s higher values via one year results are being maintained. BNB/USD is lurking near 600.00 per a three month glance.

7. Commodities: Cocoa and Coffee prices remain elevated. After touching a low around the 7,250.00 USD mark last week per metric ton, Cocoa is now within sight of 9,000.00 USD again. Retail speculators who like to wager via CFDs on commodities need to remember their bets have no influence on the markets, which are in complete control by the largest players in the commodities sector.

6. Wayve Technologies: A U.K based company specializing in autonomous driving software has announced they have raised more than 1 billion USD in investments recently via the likes of Softbank, Nvidia and Microsoft. The U.K government has highlighted Wayve, proclaiming it shows Britain will be a major force in AI development. Wayve was established in 2017 and is still a privately held company.

5. U.S Foreign Policy: Election concerns appear to be a prime motivator for the U.S executive branch as its attempts to walk a fine line regarding diplomacy and saber-rattling in the Middle East. Polling from a variety of sources indicate Joe Biden is in jeopardy of not being reelected.

4. USD/CNY: China will release its Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index numbers early on Saturday. The USD/CNY is trading around the 7.2245 mark as of this writing. Some analysts have expressed concerns about the China Yuan weakening via attempts by the Chinese government to boost exports. The USD/CNY certainly remains within the higher elements of its range, but is below marks seen in early September 2023 which were around the 7.3425 ratio.

3. Data Warning: While day traders may be inclined to look at the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment reading today, they should remember to pay attention to the Inflation Expectations statistics. Last month’s inflation report produced a result of 3.2%, which delivered a solid dose of volatility to financial assets.
2. Forex: Behavioral sentiment appears to be leaning towards a weaker outlook for the USD as major currencies like the EUR, GBP (solid GDP numbers also helped this morning in Britain) and others have gained. However, its should be pointed out that the USD/JPY has seen an incremental climb since touching a low of nearly 151.880 last Friday. As of this writing the USD/JPY is around the 155.650 level.

1. Equity Indices: Bullish optimism has been seen in the S&P 500, Dow 30 and Nasdaq as all three major indices are ready to start the day near highs for the week. The burst of upwards momentum which started last Thursday, has ignited the major U.S indices within sight of their apex realms achieved in late March and early April.

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Tastings for the 10th of May 2024

by with No Comment AI & Machine LearningAMT MarketsFeatured Highlights

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Tastings for the 10th of May 2024

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10. Word of the day: Ultracrepidarian is a person who speaks assertively about subjects that are beyond their level of knowledge. The world is full of many suspects ladies and gentlemen.

9. Steve Albini: The musician and production sound engineer passed away earlier this week in Chicago. Albini was a pioneer and leader in ‘alternative’ music and battled homogenized corporate music for nearly 40 years. Nirvana, Fugazi, Jimmy Page, the Pixies, P.J Harvey are some of the many that worked with Albini.

8. Bitcoin: BTC/USD continues to hover around the 63,000.00 realm per a three month technical chart perspective. Bitcoin’s higher values via one year results are being maintained. BNB/USD is lurking near 600.00 per a three month glance.

7. Commodities: Cocoa and Coffee prices remain elevated. After touching a low around the 7,250.00 USD mark last week per metric ton, Cocoa is now within sight of 9,000.00 USD again. Retail speculators who like to wager via CFDs on commodities need to remember their bets have no influence on the markets, which are in complete control by the largest players in the commodities sector.

6. Wayve Technologies: A U.K based company specializing in autonomous driving software has announced they have raised more than 1 billion USD in investments recently via the likes of Softbank, Nvidia and Microsoft. The U.K government has highlighted Wayve, proclaiming it shows Britain will be a major force in AI development. Wayve was established in 2017 and is still a privately held company.

5. U.S Foreign Policy: Election concerns appear to be a prime motivator for the U.S executive branch as its attempts to walk a fine line regarding diplomacy and saber-rattling in the Middle East. Polling from a variety of sources indicate Joe Biden is in jeopardy of not being reelected.

4. USD/CNY: China will release its Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index numbers early on Saturday. The USD/CNY is trading around the 7.2245 mark as of this writing. Some analysts have expressed concerns about the China Yuan weakening via attempts by the Chinese government to boost exports. The USD/CNY certainly remains within the higher elements of its range, but is below marks seen in early September 2023 which were around the 7.3425 ratio.

3. Data Warning: While day traders may be inclined to look at the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment reading today, they should remember to pay attention to the Inflation Expectations statistics. Last month’s inflation report produced a result of 3.2%, which delivered a solid dose of volatility to financial assets.

2. Forex: Behavioral sentiment appears to be leaning towards a weaker outlook for the USD as major currencies like the EUR, GBP (solid GDP numbers also helped this morning in Britain) and others have gained. However, its should be pointed out that the USD/JPY has seen an incremental climb since touching a low of nearly 151.880 last Friday. As of this writing the USD/JPY is around the 155.650 level.

1. Equity Indices: Bullish optimism has been seen in the S&P 500, Dow 30 and Nasdaq as all three major indices are ready to start the day near highs for the week. The burst of upwards momentum which started last Thursday, has ignited the major U.S indices within sight of their apex realms achieved in late March and early April.

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Forex: Shifting Winds and Potential Optimism for Speculators

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

Forex: Shifting Winds and Potential Optimism for Speculators

The BoJ intervened in Forex and propelled two fast selloffs of the USD/JPY last week. The actions by the Bank of Japan did not come as a surprise as the central bank seeks to maintain a dovish interest rate policy, a relatively weak Japanese Yen – but also a philosophy of not letting the JPY to suffer too much. Speculators and financial institutions got caught up in the price action which ensued as a clash developed between large traders and the BoJ as equilibrium was sought.

The BoJ clearly wants to keep the USD/JPY within the weaker realms of its long-term values to spur on the Japanese export sector with solid business results. However, domestically the Japanese government doesn’t want inflation within Japan to inflict too much pain for its citizens. BoJ interventions were carried out twice last week, once during a holiday in Japan, and the second when most global financial institutions were shuttered. At the time of this writing the USD/JPY is trading near the 153.720 mark.

Day traders always need to understand just how small they are within the larger speculative world. They need to judge economic intelligence and forecasts to get an understanding where behavioral sentiment could affect tides.

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USD/JPY One Month Chart on 6th of May 2024

In the U.S, inflation and growth data caused investors to react nervously a week and a a half ago, additionally more anxious moments were fueled by the Federal Reserve’s FOMC Statement this past Wednesday when the Fed said it was uncertain about the timetable that inflation would return to their stated goal of two percent. Forex trading has been volatile the entire calendar year of 2024 for speculators.

Nearly ten days ago while inflation continued to prove it was stubborn via the U.S GDP Price Index on the 25th of April, Advance GDP data was much weaker than expected showing that economic growth was slowing. And last Friday’s Non-Farm Employment results were not only weaker regarding hiring, but also showed a slight drop in Average Hourly Earnings. This might have been enough to begin causing a shift in financial institution outlooks. This week of trading will prove interesting regarding risk appetite versus risk averse sentiment, particularly if large players believe economic data is finally catching up to the Fed’s rhetoric.

U.S equity indices which started last week with selling and battled lower depths in the middle of the week, began to see buying develop on Thursday, and finished Friday’s trading within their highs via weekly technical charts. While it is easy to report the past, it is the future speculators want to know. The ability of the U.S jobs numbers to produce results which were seen in a favorable light regarding the Fed’s ability to potentially cut the Federal Funds Rate certainly was an optimistic sign for financial institutions. If inflation can remain under control it would help the global economic picture. On that note, WTI Crude Oil is trading below 80.00 USD and should be monitored.

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S&P 500 Index Three Month Chart on 6th of May 2024.

Monday, 6th of May, European Union Final Services PMI – Italy, France and Germany among other will present Purchasing Managers Index data. The broad numbers are mostly expected to replicate the previous month’s outcomes. Traders should note the U.K is observing a banking holiday today, which means lighter than normal Forex volumes will be seen.

Tuesday, 7th of May, Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Statement – the central bank is not expected to change its interest rate. The AUD/USD has provided some upwards momentum the past week. The RBA is not expected to step out of line regarding global central bank policies. Expect talk about an optimistically cautious outlook by the RBA as they preach patience regarding an interest rate cut.

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AUD/USD One Month Chart on 6th of May 2024

Wednesday, 8th of May, Bond Sales from Japan, the U.K and the U.S – while many European nations observe a holiday, Japan, Great Britain and the U.S will sell government debt. U.S Treasury yields should be watched and equity indices should have an eye kept on them. If behavioral sentiment remains optimistic as this day comes to a close it could set the table for more bullishness, particularly if the USD remains relatively tame or weaker.

Thursday, 9th of May, Bank of England Monetary Policy Summary – the BoE is likely to mirror other central banks and keep its interest rate policy in place. No changes are expected to the Official Bank Rate. However, it would not be surprising to hear the BoE try to pose upbeat expectations, and if this occurs perhaps the GBP/USD will continue to find some momentum upwards.

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GBP/USD One Month Chart on 6th of May 2024

Thursday, 9th of May, U.S Weekly Unemployment Claims – investors will keep their eyes on the jobs report. If the numbers come in around expectations this would allow risk appetite to remain strong in the near-term.

Friday, 10th of May, U.K Gross Domestic Product – an expected gain of 0.1% is forecast. GBP/USD traders who have bullish sentiment will be looking for the number to match expectations or beat the anticipated result. If the number is weaker, this could cause a reversal lower in the GBP/USD and an attempt to push back against gains made in the currency pair recently.

Friday, 10th of May, U.S Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations via the University of Michigan – these readings will be watched by investors to see if consumers continue to show decreasing confidence in the U.S economy. While it sounds counter intuitive to want eroding sentiment regarding the ability to spend money, this would create more ammunition for the Federal Reserve to consider an interest rate cut. The Inflation Expectations could be the catalyst for traders going into the weekend regarding the USD.

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Speculative Notions: Gold and the USD as the Casino Lives

by with No Comment AMT MarketsAssetsFeatured Highlights

Speculative Notions: Gold and the USD as the Casino Lives

Notes on speculation via the prism of Gold and the USD, with questions about value as short-term wagers versus long-term investment are considered.

Speculative forces eventually run out of power, leaving investors and businesses to conduct their affairs via the assets they are using to proceed with enterprise as they judge fair market price.

Assets like Gold (commodities) the USD (Forex) and equities (corporate shares) are a battleground for those who are trying to make short term profits from price action movement (sometimes – volatility) versus those who are holders of the assets in order to run their lives (corporations, private businesses, finance).

Perhaps the speculative forces are not a Las Vegas environment completely, but it is a strange mix of risk management and gambling. And because of the price changes in these assets as supply and demand are transacted – the realization that the potential of hedging against sudden gyrations in price is used as insurance, but also as a dangerous speculative tool needs to be considered.

Futures, options and cash markets combine and are mixed like a stew consisting of trillions of USD value as global enterprise and financial casinos flourish.

Let’s take a look at Gold as an example. There is only so much physical Gold on the planet earth – a finite amount. There is only so much that can be taken out of the ground in a year. There is only so much Gold an individual can safely store in their home, before they have to use other secure venues. Central banks may have backed away from the ‘gold standard’ but they understand the importance of the precious metal as proven and tested by thousand of years of commerce. Gold can be used as the exchange of value for a good and this will likely remain the case for long time.

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Gold One Year Chart as of 23rd April 2024

The price of Gold serves as a hedge against inflation. The value of Gold today roughly buys you the same things it bought you a thousand years ago, when compared to monetary units which fluctuate like the wind. Because cash in many cases throughout history becomes weakened, losing its value because of bad government policy which causes the people holding the ‘paper’ to lose confidence; and then creates the desire for the precious metal which has almost entered our conscious DNA as a source of value which doesn’t change.

We can speculate on what the Gold price will be today, tomorrow, next year, but we know the fluctuations will roughly equate into what our consciousness – logic – tells us what the main reserve currency that rules the land will be worth – in this case the USD.

For the time being, the USD acts as the reserve currency of the world and is weighed against the value of Gold – literally – remember Gold is valued per ounce in USD.

The ability of Gold to climb to record highs recently was put into question, because at the same time the USD was getting strong. This signaled to traders that a known speculative force in Gold was at play; yes, it could be said a speculative force was at play in the USD too, because of Forex and the Federal Reserve, but Gold rose the past month and a half dramatically while the USD also was gaining value.

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USD Cash Index One Year Chart as of 23rd April 2024

Thus, suddenly the inverse correlation of Gold and the USD which are literally weighed against one another was suddenly off balance. The USD was gaining and gold was rising, and one of them was likely ‘full of hot air’ – an imbalance.

Meaning Gold had become inflated in value perhaps, because of speculative forces. While folks could point to geopolitics, and central banks such as China and Russia and maybe Iran wanting Gold because they are ‘angry’ at the U.S and want to signal they do not believe in the USD. There is only so much money these speculative forces have, and they hold the USD as a store of value too, which means if they bet too much on Gold they can find their positions – weight – imbalanced.

The USD remains the world’s reserve currency, and the value of the greenback particularly as the Fed has come under pressure, via the weight of inflation, and had to admit they cannot cut interest rates until inflation erodes has made the reserve currency stronger again. The use of the USD is easier than using Gold. There is not enough Gold in the world to transact business to business, person to person physical exchange everyday. Thus Gold becomes a ‘store of value’ via inventories not only in secure facilities but our minds too.

The past couple of days have seen Gold perhaps lose value again as the counterweights have come back into focus. It was bound to happen as long as the USD remains the world’s reserve currency in which value can be distinguished versus the commodity.

Speculative forces do run out of power, and now after Gold flirted with the 2,400.00 plus level recently, maybe Gold should return to its values which were seen in late 2023, which is where the USD Cash Index is essentially standing technically. Lets also remember where U.S Treasury yields were during this time, long-term bonds are a measure of interest rates and outlook via the Federal Reserve – used as an insurance and investment vehicle by those looking to lock in ‘returns’. Yes, Treasuries can be speculated on too, but their values coincide with USD legitimacy and the Federal Funds Rate.

It is a thought, a speculative notion, let’s see what happens. What should the speculative price of Gold be now compared to the USD? Should it be lower, closer to the 2200.00 to 2100.00 USD levels? The casino will give us the answers.

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USD/ZAR Celebratory Parade Should be Put on Hold Awhile

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

USD/ZAR Celebratory Parade Should be Put on Hold Awhile

The USD/ZAR has produced a solid downward turn since the 1st of April when the currency pair was trading above 19.00000.

The value of the USD/ZAR as of this writing is near the 18.48000 mark as the currency pair fluctuates within Forex. The currency pair has produced a solid downturn since the start of April when it was above the 19.00000 level. The ability of the USD/ZAR to suddenly create a streak of bearish trading and make support levels look vulnerable is intriguing, particularly considering USD centric sentiment against many other major currencies the past week and a half has produced very choppy results in the broad Forex market.

The USD/ZAR is now trading at its monthly low via a technical perspective and the currency pair is testing values last seen at the start of January. The ability of the USD/ZAR to suddenly spark selling may be able to be explained because of the higher value of Gold which is trading at record prices while traversing near 2,360.00 USD currently. Mining makes up roughly 8% of the Gross Domestic Product value for South Africa.

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USD/ZAR One Month Chart as of 9th April 2024

However, before a party is launched to start celebrating the reemergence of the South Africa Rand, traders should note the USD/ZAR was trading within its current value range on the 14th of December. Thus the South African Rand is simply taking up residence like many other major currencies including the GBP and EUR within known prices they were valued, when the U.S Federal Reserve ‘changed’ its monetary policy stance on the 13th of December to a more dovish outlook.

The choppiness within the USD/ZAR has been rather extreme over the past few months. On the 28th of December the USD/ZAR was trading near the 18.26000 ratio briefly, on the 23rd of February the currency pair was near the 19.40000 mark and testing values which had been last seen in October of 2023. While the price of Gold is at record values now, the worth of the precious metal might be a false correlation to the USD/ZAR, and technical traders may want to watch the currency pair’s support levels below as a place that reversals higher could be sparked.

U.S Data and Concerns in South Africa Regarding the Election

The U.S will release important inflation data on Wednesday and Thursday. Last month’s Producer Price Index numbers from the States sparked a wave of volatility in Forex and the USD/ZAR was not immune. The bearish cycle in the USD/ZAR has been noteworthy, but fundamental doubt exists regarding its ability to sustain lower price momentum. The U.S Federal Reserve does not appear any closer to cutting its Federal Funds Rate.

There is also a political shadow regarding South Africa elections. The nation’s vote will take place on the 29th of May. The results potentially could create instability and the need for a coalition government which may be difficult to attain without signing off on more costly social policies which the South African government cannot easily afford fiscally.

USD/ZAR Short Term Thoughts:

·         The 18.46000/18.47000 support levels in the short-term may cause reactions if challenged.

·         Traders are urged not to be overly ambitious, particularly if they still want to pursue downside in the USD/ZAR, the use of take profit and stop loss orders is appropriate.

·         Current price levels may spark volatility if financial institutions feel the price of the USD/ZAR has become unbalanced.

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Rays for the 15th of March 2024

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Rays for the 15th of March 2024

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10. Argentina: President Javier Milei is practicing fiscal sanity. The health of the Argentine Peso has improved, and monthly inflation data has begun to show signs of erosion.

9. Copper: The commodity has shown a steady increase since the 9th of February and is challenging values last seen in April of 2023. Demand could signal better global economic outlooks emerging.

8. Gold: The precious metal is near 2167.00 USD which appears high momentarily, this as questions about USD near-term direction lurks and Forex remains choppy.

7. Aramco: Profits for the energy producer were an approximately 121 billion USD for 2023, this as Saudi Arabia is propelling the nation’s infrastructure towards an elite future.

6. Bubble Watch: Binance Coin is around 580.00 USD as of this writing. BNB/USD was near 200.00 in the middle of October 2023.

5. Centrists: Will the adults be allowed back into the political arena to govern and brush away populists?

4. Inflation: Consumer prices are causing pain and household arrears are growing. Total U.S credit card debt is estimated over 1 trillion USD by the Reserve Bank of New York.

3. China: New Home Prices are still losing value via data released today. And the Shanghai Composite Index is near 3050.00 which looks suspiciously like a member of the ‘too expensive club’.

2. Data: U.S Producer Price Index stats were sharply higher yesterday, while Retail Sales came in below estimates. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment readings will be published today. The U.S economic outlook remains murky.

1. Prediction: Fed’s FOMC meeting next week will provide financial institutions cautious ‘vanilla’ remarks about monetary policy from Jerome Powell, meaning market conditions will likely continue to move sideways.

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Inflation Encore: Forex Traders Gathering Important Evidence

by with No Comment Central BanksEconomic CalendarFeatured Highlights

Inflation Encore: Forex Traders Gathering Important Evidence

The USD has been weaker against many major currencies the past week and inflation numbers coming from the U.S will test short-term outlooks. It should be remembered that in February before the CPI numbers were published, some who were leaning towards a weaker USD were traumatized after the stronger than anticipated results. However recent U.S economic data has shown a rather polite and distinct downturn.

Day traders should brace for drama today and understand that financial institutions will lead the way, either catapulting trends or stopping them in their tracks. As Forex speculators get set, Gold continues to also flirt with highs, as of this writing the precious metal is near 2175.00 USD. Financial assets from equity indices to digital assets (yes, Bitcoin) are experiencing frothy returns as values seemingly attract more capital inflows. In other words, bullish behavioral sentiment is rather strong and traders are reminded to stay realistic with their goals.

Again, there is a difference between quick hitting speculators trying to take advantage of robust trends compared to long-term investing. Day traders still need to do their homework and not bet blindly.

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Gold Five Year Chart as of 12th March 2024.

Monday, 11th of March, Japan GDP – Gross Domestic Product numbers yesterday came in with unexpected weaker results showing a gain of only 0.1% compared to an anticipated 0.3% gain. Yes, the USD/JPY held onto it downwards momentum, which it has established since last week. The trading results in the currency pair suggest financial institutions are placing their faith in mid-term outlooks.

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USD/JPY One Month Chart as of 12th March 2024

Tuesday, 12th of March, U.S Consumer Price Index – the inflation reports will headline and drive market conditions near-term. Last month’s numbers provoked a strong reaction when prices remained stubborn. The monthly core report is expected to show a slight decline today, but the monthly broad number is actually anticipated to rise slightly. With mixed statistics forecast already, day traders need to be prepared for a lot of noise – which may prove rather misguided. The problem for the markets today will come from the interpretation of the numbers, if the CPI figures can simply come close to their expectations this might keep conditions from getting wild, but choppy trading should certainly be counted upon leading up to and following the publication. This month’s encore of the CPI inflation numbers will hopefully be less dramatic than February’s performance.

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GBP/USD One Month Chart as of 12th March 2024

Wednesday, 13th of March, U.K Gross Domestic Product – a gain of 0.2% is expected via the growth number. Last month’s minus -0.1% outcome should serve as a reminder tough economic conditions remain evident. Yet, last month’s number actually beat a worse expectation. GBP/USD traders who have been patient with their bullish stances have been rewarded recently. A slight gain in the GDP number from the U.K could help bolster additional confidence regarding mid-term outlooks for the GBP/USD. The BoE, like the U.S Federal Reserve, will make their monetary policy pronouncements next week.

Thursday, 14th of March, U.S PPI and Retail Sales – the Producer Price Index and consumer spending numbers may produce the surprise for the week regarding market reactions. The Core PPI results are expected to be weaker, while Retail Spending is anticipated to grow. If the inflation results via the PPI data is weaker than anticipated this could allow for further weakness in the USD to develop.

Friday, 15th of March, China New Home Sales – real estate values in the nation remain a focal point for analysis. Another large decline in prices for homes would not be good news. The economy of China is suffering from deflation which hasn’t shown evidence of diminishing soon. China remains a vital part of the global economy. Industrial Production numbers will come from the nation on Monday.

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Forex: Powell, ECB and U.S Jobs Numbers as Gold and Oil Run

by with No Comment Behavioral SentimentCommoditiesFeatured Highlights

Forex: Powell, ECB and U.S Jobs Numbers as Gold and Oil Run

Day traders and investors received a dose of optimistic ‘news’ last week as U.S economic data came in weaker than expected. While Forex certainly proved choppy as anticipated, the USD has shown signs of stability and perhaps has created a durable resistance level up above regarding its potential value looking into the mid-term.

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Gold Six Month Chart as of 5th March 2024

A potential telltale sign regarding the USD in Forex is the current price of Gold which is testing highs and as of this writing is near 2115.00 USD. While below the speculative heights of early December, the precious metal is above prices seen in late December when the USD was being sold heavily. The value of Gold is a rather solid barometer regarding outlook for behavioral sentiment in Forex. A weaker USD translates into a higher Gold price in many cases.

U.S Treasury yields have also decreased slightly over the past handful of days. And while U.S equity indices are within sight of record values, traders should monitor developing news regarding U.S regional banks and concerns about New York Community Bancorp (NYBC). For the moment it appears investors have not turned too nervous when considering the bigger picture of stock markets. Perhaps last year’s regional bank crisis has made investors in equity indices feel immune to fears of contagion stemming from bad commercial real estate lending. Or perhaps many folks are marching along merrily and refuse to pay attention for fear of missing out when their associates continue to parade into the indices.

The cryptocurrency market has come out of its deep freeze and sunshine is pervading the mindsets of speculative gamblers in crypto assets. U.S run ETFs are raising a lot of money. Folks have driven the market sky high again in the digital asset Bitcoin and its fellow travelers like Ethereum, Binance Coin, and there have been signs of pure casino like wagering in Dogecoin and Shibu Inu. Be carefu if you are considering dipping your toes into this ‘market’. Volatility and changes of sentiment can happen in the flick of an eye.

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USD/JPY Six Month Chart as of 5th March 2024

Monday, 4th of March, Japan Capital Spending – a huge jump of 16.4% was reported yesterday. This points to better economic sentiment. The Bank of Japan has been getting a lot of attention the past handful of months because some financial institutions expect the BoJ’s monetary policy to begin changing. The USD/JPY remains near important resistance levels, but below the highs of last October and November 2023 values. Mid-term speculators may be leaning towards bearish sentiment in the currency pair, but a trend lower has not been established yet.

Tuesday, 5th of March, U.S Service PMI via ISM – last week’s growth and inflation data from the U.S was less than expected. While the U.S economy has shown rather stubborn growth, the American economy may be showing signs of slowing. Today’s reading is expected to come in below the previous month’s outcome.

Wednesday, 6th of March, U.S Federal Reserve Chairman Powell – the Fed chief will testify before the Senate via the Semi-Annual Monetary Report over a two day span. Because it is an election year a rather aggressive amount of questions will be asked. However, Powell is a skilled speaker and it unlikely he will be rattled by political rhetoric. Of interest will be any comments regarding inflation, this as the Fed Chairman is asked for insights regarding the Federal Funds Rate outlook. While this testimony in Washington D.C is usually a polite get together, the notion that some politicians may try to score points will make this a potentially important calendar event for investors to pay attention regarding financial market gyrations. Powell is expected to remain cautious regarding his answers.

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WTI Crude Oil One Year Chart as of 5th March 2024

Wednesday, 6th of March, U.S Crude Oil Inventories – last week’s U.S supply report posted increased results, yet the price of WTI Crude Oil jumped the end of last week. The value of the commodity remains within the lower part of its one year range and should be watched. Recent speculative action has shown some buying momentum. The price of energy is a big component within global inflation and should be watched as the 80.00 USD Crude Oil level is challenged.

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EUR/USD Six Month Chart as of 5th March 2024

Thursday, 7th of March, European Central Bank Main Refinancing Rate – once again the ECB is expected to not act. The question is if financial institutions may try to send the European Central Bank a message because of its ‘inaction’ as inflation remains stubborn in Europe and growth hard to achieve. The EUR/USD has returned to value above the 1.08000 mark again, but visions of a stronger EUR have been hard to attain. The combination of the ECB Monetary Policy Statement and Press Conference, as Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is addressing politicians in Washington D.C could make for an interesting day of volatility in Forex.

Thursday, 7th of March, U.S State of the Union – President Joe Biden will deliver his address to Congress.

Friday, 8th of March, U.S Non-Farm Employment Change and Average Hourly Earnings – weaker jobs numbers and diminishing wage escalation are expected. U.S economic data last week came in below estimates. This report will be a solid barometer for financial institutions. While the work force numbers in the U.S are said to be tight – meaning there is full employment – layoffs have certainly been taking place in some sectors. Also worth paying attention to in the ‘back pages’ of the report, will be the amount of average hours worked by employees which have seen a statistical decline emerge.

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AMT’s Dubious Dozen Forex March 2024 Sentiment Outlook

by with No Comment AssetsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

AMT's Dubious Dozen Forex March 2024 Sentiment Outlook

The Dubious Dozen is comprised of nations who are wealthy or should be, and face criticism because of domestic and sometimes international policies. As the reader you are free to differ from the AMT opinions, which are admittedly subjective. The ratings and outlooks are not delivered as trading advice, but as a viewpoint to inform. The work presented is a living document. The nations and currencies listed, and data and critiques shall change monthly according to points deemed important.

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AMT Dubious Dozen March 2024 Forex Sentiment Outlook

AMT’s Dubious Dozen Monthly Forex Sentiment Outlook has a scaled ratings table, listing nations and currencies that are judged to have concerns regarding outlooks due to behavioral sentiment factors within financial institutions and among citizens, based on economics, transparency, and risk concerns about government fiscal policy, and ‘leanings’ toward autocracy. Metrics like inflation, gross domestic product, direct foreign investment information, debts and budgets, and foreign currency holdings which are gathered from various public sources will sometimes be presented.

AMT also tries to judge the trust level the citizens of the nations have in their domestic currencies via exchange rates, black market FX factors, and alternative assets held to guard against potential risks – like digital assets, cryptocurrencies, and gold.

A lack of credibility in a ‘fiat’ currency is dangerous and often leads to black markets for Forex in search of safe-haven currencies like the USD. The lack of a credible domestic currency also leads to price inflation because people selling goods fear the value of the domestic currency is losing value rapidly. Rampant inflation also leads to a desire to sidestep taxation on occasion.

Problematic inflation and inability to collect taxes may open the door for certain countries to contemplate and potentially initiate Central Bank Digital Currencies in order to control domestic economic activity. It is not a coincidence that China, Iran, among others are considering implementation of CBDC’s. The potential of CBDC’s by governments could allow for draconian laws for citizens of certain nations. The ability for a government to check on how all money is used via a centralized blockchain could lead to a more authoritarian landscape.

Quick Insights of the Dubious Dozen Nations Listed:

Argentine Peso (ARS): The election of President Javier Milei has started to ignite changes within fiscal policy and has created hope among international observers of a less corrupt Argentina. However, many obstacles still must be overcome by the newly elected leader and the government, and many economic issues will take patience from the public to improve. Patience has not been a classic virtue in Argentina, unless one considers the ability to accept massive corruption and go on with everyday life as a supreme power.

Brazilian Real (BRL):  Concerns regarding potential fiscal policy changes hover over the existing government which leans towards a socialistic bent and has shown a tendency to align itself with some of the most autocratic governments. Some businesses and investors are anxious about the potential of government mismanagement to develop under President Lula da Silva. The listing of Brazil will create catcalls from some, but the fear in some circles is what might happen if fiscal policy which is led by a socialistic government becomes too populist. For the moment the BRL appears to be under control, which is a good thing. However, the Brazilian Real should be kept in sight for any signs of nervousness.

Chinese Yuan (CNY): The domestic economy remains troubling and fragile. Deflation abounds. Manufacturing, electrical usage, real estate, export numbers should be monitored by observers. Government policy, and transparency reliability due to political control by the Communist Party is problematic. Concerns are causing a backlash among many foreign investors who are looking elsewhere for long-term business endeavors, when they have the ability to divest. Stats: IMF expected GDP for China in 2024 is 4.6% for 2024. China is suffering from current monthly deflation around minus – 0.80%.

Egyptian Pound (EGP): Corruption is problematic within national institutions, bureaucracy issues plague businesses due to interference. Central bank independence is in question as the government faces a litany of fiscal problems. Worries persist about a devaluation for the EGP in order to try and get inflation under control which is currently near 26.5%. The Egyptian Pound is viewed as highly vulnerable.

Iranian Rial (IRR): The nation remains mired under international sanctions. The government practices a heavy hand regarding domestic policies which carry the threat of prison and worse because of the ability to oppress the general population. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard which has several branches of ‘service’ helps the ruling government dominate and benefits monetarily, which makes the Iranian leadership and its ability to rule comparable to a mafia. The current inflation rate in Iran is estimated to be around 32.5%. Unemployment in Iran is estimated to be above 10% and 60% of the total economy is believed to be centralized by the government.

Nigerian Naira (NGN): Corruption remains a troubling part of Nigeria. Although it is a massive exporter of commodities including ‘energy’, and has a dynamic demographic, government policy is highly questionable. Nigeria’s GDP is estimated to be around 3.46% as of December 2023. A problem for Nigeria is its shadow/informal market economy, which is estimated to be nearly 58.2%. Corruption and an inability to legitimately collect taxes hurts the government’s finances and its citizens. The Nigerian Naira is weak and is losing credibility.

Pakistani Rupee (PKR): Economic concerns regarding export and import disparities are a major factor in the lack of foreign currency reserves. A new government has been elected in Pakistan which has been able to form a ruling coalition. Issues regarding corruption remain troubling. Pakistan has also formed a stronger relationship with China, particularly as they search for strong economic partnerships, but this may leave them vulnerable politically. The IMF is a large factor in the current valuation of the PKR. The currency has been stable for a handful of months but needs monitoring.

Russian Ruble (RUB): Although the war with the Ukraine battles on, Russia has found a way to continue to create growth within its economy even in the midst of sanctions. The nation has found other ways to trade and acquire products from abroad via ‘new’ trading channels largely coming from Central and Eastern Asian routes. Russia’s government is seen as highly one dimensional and rules with an iron fist.  Russia’s economy appears to have grown at a remarkable rate of 3.6% during 2023. Core Consumer Prices were about 7.15% higher as of January 2024 per annum. Vladimir Putin has played a rather impressive game of economic poker with the ‘West’ in light of the Ukrainian war, much to the chagrin of his critics.

South African Rand (ZAR): The African National Congress has been in power nearly 30 years. Concerns about mismanagement and corruption abound which are believed to influence questionable fiscal policy. The South African economic outlook is weak due to problems regarding reliable electrical supply, logistical problems at ports, and bureaucratic interference led by government policy which leans towards central controls.  A large amount of immigrants from other African nations are still coming to South Africa as a cheap labor source, but professionally trained people are still unfortunately leaving South Africa via emigration in large numbers. The South African Rand has been within the grips a long-term trend of losing value, and while not entirely vulnerable its credibility is becoming shakier.

Turkish Lira (TRY): A thriving business and manufacturing base exists in the nation. However, inflation due to fiscal policy in Turkey remains an impediment for corporations which are forced to deal with a currency that many within the nation are worried about because of its incrementally weaker outlook which has been noteworthy for a handful of years. There are concerns about current government leadership regarding transparency and a tendency to interfere in Turkish Central Bank decisions. Financial institutions and their corporate clients have a difficult path as they try to mitigate the constant threat of high inflation in Turkey due to questionable fiscal policy.

Venezuelan Boliver Soberano (VES): The failed socialistic nightmare continues to cause squalor in Venezuela. If you want to see the potential of where the VES is headed look to Zimbabwe and the years that a combination of despotic rule under the guise of socialism has delivered. Venezuela should be a rich and successful country due to its natural resources, but it is led by a band of thieves. The black market rate of exchange if it can be found in cities like Caracas is much higher than the ‘official’ listed rate of the government. The VES has little to no credibility.

Zimbabwean Dollar (ZWD/ZWL): The nation is still trying to fix the problems caused by government mismanagement under the authoritarian leadership of Robert Mugabe which led to hyper-inflation and the destruction of the economy. Zimbabwe has a long way to go and issues to overcome to achieve the reintroduction of a domestic currency which does not suffer from a lack of faith from its citizens, which have led to a wide abandonment of the Zimbabwean Dollar and demonetization.

A national currency that is tradable internationally does not exist, the government is aiming for another attempt at monetization in 2025 if economic stability is created. The Botswana Pula (BWP), USD, and ZAR are among other currencies that are used and accepted by the population to transact business. The government tries to monitor all FX exchanges after years of misrule, but this does not stop a vigorous black market. There is an accepted perception the current leadership is trying to fix the massive problems which have created havoc in the nation for a few decades, but the road back to normality is still perilous.