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The Greatest Rivalry: India vs Pakistan: Netflix Doc. Review

The Greatest Rivalry: India vs Pakistan: Netflix Doc. Review

The India-Pakistan cricket rivalry is one of the most intense and storied in the history of sports. This 3-part Netflix documentary delves into this historic cricket rivalry, focusing primarily on the 1999 and 2004 tours. While it provides an engaging look at these high-stakes encounters, the series feels somewhat incomplete, as it largely skips over the period before 1999 and rushes through the events post-2004, condensing nearly two decades into the final 10 minutes of the last episode.

The Greatest Rivalry: India vs. Pakistan – A Review of the Netflix Cricket Documentary

One of the more thought-provoking moments comes from Pakistani journalist Osman Samiuddin, who draws a cultural comparison by noting that Pakistan’s savings rate lags India’s. He suggests this reflects differing life philosophies – Pakistanis living more in the present versus Indians planning more for the future. Indian journalist Ayaz Memon describes the 1999-2004 era as a clash between Pakistan’s world-class bowlers and India’s formidable batsmen. However, the reality is that both teams were evenly matched during this period, adding to the intensity and unpredictability of their contests.

The documentary effectively captures the electrifying atmosphere whenever these two nations face off, highlighting the high emotions and record TV ratings. Indian cricket legends like Sunil Gavaskar, Kris Srikanth, and Sourav Ganguly provide insightful commentary, but it’s Virender Sehwag who takes center stage for his pivotal role in the 2004 series. On the Pakistani side, Shoaib Akhtar, at the peak of his career, is a key figure, alongside Javed Miandad, Waqar Younis, and Inzamam-ul-Haq. John Wright, the coach of the Indian team in 2004, also shares some noteworthy behind-the-scenes anecdotes.

The series makes a commendable effort to keep political tensions at bay, but the deep-rooted rivalry between the two nations inevitably influences the narrative and the emotions of fans on both sides.

A brief segment touches on the Indian Premier League (IPL), cricket’s biggest moneymaker, noting that Pakistani players participated in the inaugural 2007 tournament. However, the 2008 Mumbai terror attacks led to a political fallout, resulting in the exclusion of Pakistani players from the IPL. This absence has deprived the league of some exceptional talent and the unique buzz that a cross-border rivalry would have generated. The documentary provocatively suggests that had Pakistani players continued in the IPL, the fierce on-field competition might have evolved into a more sporting rivalry, possibly softening fan perceptions across borders.

The timing of this documentary is particularly relevant, with the 2025 Champions Trophy starting this week (Feb 19) in Pakistan. However, citing player safety concerns, India has opted to play all its matches at a neutral venue in Dubai. This decision underscores the ongoing political tensions that overshadow cricketing ties. The documentary leaves viewers pondering whether a day will come when sports can take precedence over politics, allowing fans in both countries to once again experience the thrill of live, cross-border cricket.

Overall, while the documentary provides a nostalgic and thrilling account of one of cricket’s most storied rivalries, a more balanced historical perspective and deeper exploration of the post-2004 era would have made it even more compelling.

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USD/CAD Risk Premium Shifts from Ultra to Prudent Nervousness

USD/CAD Risk Premium Shifts from Ultra to Prudent Nervousness

USD/CAD Six Month Chart as of 16th February 2025

The USD/CAD has experienced a bullish trend the past six months which has seen risk premium factor into the highs seen on the 3rd of February when the 1.48000 vicinity briefly witnessed a flirtation. The currency pair will enter this week near the 1.41800 area. It appears financial institutions are shifting from being ultra nervous about the rhetoric between the U.S and Canada to merely prudent.

On the 5th of November the USD/CAD was around 1.39000. The currency pair is now traversing values seen on the 10th of December. Economic data certainly factors into the USD/CAD value, but the move higher has definitely been a product of the rather raucous relationship between President Trump and Prime Minister Trudeau. The drama is not completely over and Forex traders who are looking for a sustained downturn in the USD/CAD should remain cautious regarding their wagers.

Consumer Price Index data will come from Canada this Tuesday. U.S inflation data released last week showed prices remain stubbornly above the target the Federal Reserve uses as a benchmark. Canadian inflation will likely demonstrate the same type of price pressures upward. However, these forecasted results from the Canadian CPI have likely been priced into the USD/CAD already by large players.

Which leaves us with the Trump/ Trudeau saga. And while Canada may feel like it is being unfairly pointed to as a villain by the White House, the problem for financial institutions is that Trump is firmly in power and Trudeau is about to vacate his office. The Canada Federal Election will be held on or before the 20th of October, and it is worthwhile to take into consideration the Liberal party is probably going to lose its leadership role to the Conservatives and Pierre Poilievre will be at the helm. Rest assured that financial institutions are taking this into consideration as they consider their mid-term outlooks.

The USD has shown some signs of less strength in recent trading across Forex. Financial institutions are perhaps factoring less risk premium into currencies as they anticipate tariff negotiations to provide answers and somewhat calmer conditions. Somewhat being the keyword. USD/CAD traders looking to target support levels in the near-term may try to anticipate the 1.41100 ratio as a goal. Looking for the USD/CAD to go below the 1.41000 level may be too much wishful thinking for the moment. Reversals higher in the currency pair will still be seen.

The USD/CAD will likely start to show a downturn, the question is when. Timing a sustained bearish trend in the USD/CAD for the moment remains gambling. The notion that the USD/CAD will see lower values in the mid-term however may be the right conviction, but deep pockets and patience will be needed.

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Apolitical Doesn’t Mean Blind to the Trump Forex Reality

Apolitical Doesn’t Mean Blind to the Trump Forex Reality

Has everyone stopped panicking in global Forex? It appears financial institutions are showing signs of stability and perhaps even optimism, this as USD centric strength appears to actually have begun giving back the outlandish gains made on Monday when spikes higher were seen across Forex.

The nervous buying of the USD early on Monday morning erupted after President Trump’s ultimatums were not taken seriously by financial institutions late last week. Outwardly it appears that the targets consisting of Mexico and Canada going into the past weekend also wanted to make believe all would be fine. The only nation to say that it would negotiate with Trump prior to Friday was China. And now Mexico and Canada have largely fallen into line.

Speculators may want to be apolitical. They may want to believe Forex has nothing to do with politics. And some traders may not like President Trump and what he represents. However, Forex participants need to make sure they put their biases to the side and understand that economic rhetoric and actions from the U.S do effect the Forex reality.

USD Cash Index Six Month Chart as of 5th February 2025

We have seen a vast example of this the past couple of weeks, in fact the past few months. Financial institutions have braced for and wagered on their outlooks since early November when the results of the U.S election became known. A strong USD centric element has been demonstrated as they prepared for President Trump to take executive power in the U.S again.

This past week has seen vivid Forex results and demonstrated why it is important to pay attention to international news flow, even when some may want to disregard what they are hearing. The price action in Forex particularly the USD/CAD and USD/MXN this week highlight the significance of not turning a blind eye. The highs seen on Monday followed by the reversals lower have brought support into view. Near-term and mid-term considerations will be fought over by financial institutions and retail traders may find technical opportunities to take advantage of nervous behavioral sentiment.

China which has dealt with President Trump before, appears to have handled the tariff bluster and negotiations better than Mexico and Canada. China has also been laying the groundwork to deal with the new White House administration based on having dealt with President Trump before. The USD/CNY has remained stable and China has set the table to deal with developing economic discussions in a calm manner.

It is not a question of liking or disliking Trump, it is a matter of understanding the reality and being ready to trade the circumstances that are seen across Forex. Bias when trading Forex can lead to bad decisions, it is not about betting on who you like, it is about wagering correctly on the results you believe will happen and managing your risks.

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A More Aggressive Sounding ECB Could be Wishful Thinking

A More Aggressive Sounding ECB Could be Wishful Thinking

EUR/USD Three Month Chart as of 30th January 2025

Will an interest rate cut by the ECB spark near-term buying in EUR/USD today? Financial institutions want news they have anticipated, day traders need to understand this dynamic.

The Federal Reserve stood in place yesterday almost acting as if it is afraid of its own shadow. No one was surprised the Fed did not cut the Federal Funds Rate. The Fed insisted inflation remains slightly elevated, it also said it thinks most of the worst employment data has been seen. What it did not say was that it remains in a quandary regarding the potential affects of President Trump’s policy on the U.S economy. The Fed wants to stay away from this debate. They also likely understand Donald Trump will bring up the subject himself. Trump wants the Fed to cut U.S interest rates more.

On the other side of the coin today stands the European Central Bank, which is anticipated to cut their Main Refinancing Rate by another 0.25, this to the 2.90% level. Financial institutions have certainly factored an interest rate cut from the ECB into the EUR/USD already. If there is no cut, this would cause an immediate reaction and likely a bad one against the EUR.

However, if the ECB acts as expected and cuts their rate this might actually spur on some near-term positive thoughts about the EUR and create some buying momentum. But for the move to be sustained and stronger, as outlandish as it might seem, what financial institutions will want to hear is that the ECB understands the E.U faces ongoing tough economic conditions and will remain dovish.

The problem with an overly aggressive attitude by the ECB today is that this is not anticipated. Yes, the rate cut of 0.25 is being counted upon, but the ECB and Fed are not exactly bastions of pro-active policy change. The ability of the EUR/USD climbing above the 1.05000 ratio last Friday and into Monday of this week was a signal financial institutions believe the EUR/USD is oversold, but they want to see more concrete steps taken. Doubts about what the ECB will say today has likely led to the 1.04000 level again being tested.

It may seem counterintuitive to believe that interest rate cuts from the ECB and a overly cautious Fed will help the EUR/USD achieve a bullish footing, but behavioral sentiment regarding mid-term outlook is crucial. Carry trade folks may say that if the ECB were to promise another cut today after their actions taken now, that this would create too large a difference between the ECB and Fed borrowing rates. This may be correct, but pro-active policy is something financial institutions would like to see. Day traders should be very careful today.

The EUR/USD hovering near 1.04000 is a signal that financial institutions will certainly react, there will be volatility in the coming hours. A rate cut from the ECB today will be the first ray of hope regarding a stronger EUR. However, unless the European Central Bank sounds like they will remain vigilant and are considering another potential cut sooner rather than later, the EUR/USD could quickly start to become choppy again.

The EUR/USD is essentially occupying a price range right now that it traded one month ago. Sentiment remains jittery. And President Trump will be watching and his comments which could come at anytime regarding the Fed, interest rates, potential tariffs and sanctions will create vulnerabilities for Forex and financial institutions in the days ahead.

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Nasdaq 100: U.S Exceptionalism and Competition from China

Nasdaq 100: U.S Exceptionalism and Competition from China

Nasdaq 100 Six Month Chart as of 28th January 2025

The losses on the Nasdaq 100 yesterday were bad. Wall Street participants were reminded that technology is and always has been a competitive landscape. It is rather remarkable that the lesson being given to capitalists came from China which is led by a Communist government. U.S Exceptionalism which has been spoken about in loud tones the past week because of President Trump’s return to the White House has been put on notice.

There will be additional bad days on Wall Street, but the idea that the Nasdaq 100 now faces an existential threat from DeepSeek is farfetched. Traders must take a healthful breath and remember yesterday’s loses while bad were not catastrophic. Premium froth from Nvidia and other companies saw some of their likely overvalued worth selloff on Monday. Perhaps more will follow today, but tech and innovation companies have always faced a competitive landscape.

Was yesterday an indication there is a crack in U.S Exceptionalism via technology that is going to be long lasting? Companies must always compete to be the best, if DeepSeek’s entry into the news cycle was a ‘sputnik’ moment as some claim, folks need to remember the U.S bounced back rather nicely and eventually outpaced the Russians – who still remain a tech competitor regarding rockets and space.

This weekend’s news from China has provided another moment the world realizes technological gains are often hard fought. While many media pundits act with hyperbolic noise and state vivid concerns about the future of the technological competition between China and companies around the globe, the race for innovation has and always will exist.

AI for the moment is grabbing the headlines, but Artificial Intelligence is also a buzzword – it is marketing usage by those who are trying to entice investors with big promises, except machine learning has been around for decades. Progress the last few years has been significant, but AI isn’t ready to make humans into a new species. Competitive battles in equity markets centering on innovation via semiconductors, quantum computing, robotics, IoT, biotech, transportation, and other sectors have been relevant and will remain this way.

Monday’s results on the Nasdaq 100 and harsh falls for some tech giants like Nvidia is a reminder that while speculating and investing in one company is a potential way to make solid returns, investing in indices and a large group of diverse companies often produces steadier yields. Yes, yesterday’s losses on the Nasdaq 100 were bad, but they were less critical compared to the losses Nvidia suffered. And let’s remember Nvidia will survive yesterday’s declines.

After Monday’s Nasdaq 100 decline, today will prove a another test of sentiment. Premium froth in companies such as Nvidia that sold off, will now cause people to question fundamental analysis of tech and innovation. Bubbles sometimes burst. The remainder of this week will be a solid test of behavioral sentiment. A battle between large speculators and investors will also be seen. Those who plan on cashing out of the market near-term to book profits may find that investors with long-term ambitions still win the race.

Perceptions are constantly being shaped, we should always be questioning the ability of technology which is proven versus marketing mayhem that is hot air. Artificial Intelligence has had a gravitational pull on the investment landscape. The froth created by investment into the AI sphere is important, but it only one part of many combined technologies constantly developing.

Many companies claiming they are AI centric have no real basis to make the statement. Semiconductor companies have led a lot of the gains in Nasdaq’s run higher because they are the ones supplying micro processing to companies that need the technology to build machine learning capabilities, China has always been a competitor and yesterday provided a wake up call for those who forgot. A dose of reality has been delivered once again to Wall Street.

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MicroStrategy and Bitcoin: Will They Turn into Smithereens?

MicroStrategy and Bitcoin: Will They Turn into Smithereens?

MicroStrategy One Year Chart as of 25th January 2025

MicroStrategy near 353.67 per yesterday’s close. Bitcoin around $104,625 this morning. Will the balloons keep inflating or become smithereens? The combo of MSTR and BTC/USD are combustible.

MarketWatch has published an excellent article on the borrowing via bonds that MicroStrategy is undertaking with investors. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-investors-are-lending-microstrategy-billions-of-dollars-at-0-interest-so-it-can-buy-bitcoin-03f7cacf The article highlights the red hot glow that some investors are pursuing via bets on MicroStrategy and Bitcoin.

MSTR has turned from a data driven company that produces revenue into a proxy bet on Bitcoin. Not everyone is a fan. As of late November 2024 Citron Capital has been reported to be ‘shorting’ MicroStrategy.

Students intrigued by the art of speculation, finance and business outlook have an active case study via MicroStrategy. This is a saga which will continue to grow in stature as investors and speculators seek profits. While the potential for disaster remains high, Michael Saylor of MicroStrategy and his cult like leadership capabilities has led his flock of believers into a golden land for now, but what storms await?

BTC/USD One Year Chart as of 25th January 2025

Naysayers of MicroStrategy’s foray into Bitcoin have thus far been proven wrong. Michael Saylor and his legions will continue singing praises about Bitcoin and its ability to turn into the modern version of gold, but perhaps it will turn into a digital asset nightmare. However, there is no denying the strength of the trend which has manifested the past year in both MSTR and BTC/USD. With the advent of President Trump and his seemingly pro digital asset stance being taken; and the growing desire by some crowds to turn fiat currencies which have been paper based into Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDC) there are likely years left in this saga to unfold.

There has been a growing clamor for central banks to start holding some of their reserves in Bitcoin instead of gold, but for the moment this seems like too wild a thought and a purely speculative notion. Wagering on the confidence generated by digital hype with little intrinsic value, except the ability to create hot air via rhetoric and lofty visions of grandeur still appears to a step too far for most central bankers. Speculating on MicroStrategy and Bitcoin is one of the ultimate bets looking to take advantage of behavioral sentiment in the digital asset realm. MSTR and BTC/USD are highly volatile and have certainly created profits, but the combination could also turn into a horror if things go wrong.

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USD/JPY: Bank of Japan Actually Does its Job: Raises Rate

USD/JPY: Bank of Japan Actually Does its Job: Raises Rate

USD/JPY Five Day Chart as of 24th January 2025

The Bank of Japan actually raised its Policy Rate by 0.25 to 0.50% this morning. The move was done while the central bank stated the Japan economy is improving. The Bank of Japan also noted that the implications of U.S tariff policy are not completely known, thus it is acting on existing facts. The action by the BoJ created selling in the USD/JPY and is a healthy sign.

While the U.S Federal Reserve has taken on a cautious tone, President Trump has started to signal via rhetoric that he would like to see U.S interest rates lowered. The Fed and President Trump may find that they are in disagreement regarding mid-term policy and Forex traders shouldn’t be surprised if the debate escalates. The USD/JPY is trading near the 155.500 vicinity with fast price action at this moment. The ability to sustain values below the 156.000 level will be important technically if maintained. A fall below the 155.000 ratio may indicate more selling should be expected.

While financial institutions globally remain nervous about U.S economic policy regarding trade negotiations, Japan for the moment is out of the spotlight regarding tariff implications. The USD/JPY was trading near the 153.000 area on the 17th of December and it will be intriguing to see if large players use this level as a target in the coming days.

Retail traders should practice solid risk taking tactics and conservative leverage. The ability of the Bank of Japan to increase its interest rate, while the U.S Fed is in the midst of considering no changes to the Federal Funds Rate is a potentially solid sign for USD/JPY bearish attitudes.

Global Forex conditions remain choppy, but there has been some buying of the EUR/USD and GBP/USD produced recently. Next week talk of tariffs against China, Canada and Mexico will heighten, but traders need to understand the tough sounding talk from Trump is part of his negotiation tactics. While he certainly seems intent on carrying out his mandate, he will also be open to finding a way to create agreements.

Behavioral sentiment is in charge of Forex for the moment. Outlooks remain unclear, but USD centric strength may be traversing within the apex of its highs in many cases.

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Trump Bounce Potentially Coming This Week in Equity Indices

Trump Bounce Potentially Coming This Week in Equity Indices

S&P 500 Three Month Chart as of 19th January 2025

Trump: U.S equity markets will be closed Monday for MLK Day. Upwards momentum developing this week as Trump White House takes power would not be surprising.

Retail traders need to know that U.S equity markets will be shuttered on the 20th of January because of the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday. Importantly tomorrow is also the United States Presidential Inauguration. Donald Trump will retake power of the Executive Branch of the U.S government at noon in Washington D.C as he is sworn in as the 47th President. U.S stock markets have produced choppy results the past few months but still remain in sight of highs. It would not be a shock to see optimistic momentum develop on Tuesday in the U.S stock markets near-term.

Yes, financial institutions have known Trump will be taking the White House for two and a half months and have had plenty of time to already react regarding their outlooks. However, from a behavioral sentiment standpoint it is easy to deduce that Trump’s coming inauguration speech tomorrow will deliver a confirmation of his economic policy intentions. Financial institutions near-term may produce optimistic upwards trajectory and they may have psychological targets which take into account late November and early December 2024 highs in the S&P 500.

The coming week will also be light on U.S economic data, except for the weekly Unemployment Claims on Thursday, Flash Manufacturing PMI and Existing Home Sales on Friday. Meaning the week will be driven largely on sentiment generated via President’s Trump’s actions in the coming days. Trump is expected to deliver a series of Executive Orders which will affect outlooks and likely be reflective of his campaign rhetoric spoken the past year.

Retail traders should not bet blindly on upside via CFDs for the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow 30. Near-term prices are not guaranteed to move higher, but there is reason to suspect buying might prove positive. An interesting barometer for price action will certainly be seen via future contracts early on Tuesday morning as financial institutions return to full volume and get set to return after a long holiday weekend. Risk taking tactics should include price targets that are realistic and not be leveraged wildly.

Forex conditions may prove volatile this week, and traders need to remain cautious about betting against the strength of the USD which has been ferocious the past three months. U.S Federal Reserve outlook remains murky and cautious, and nervousness regarding Trump’s intended foreign policy changes including trade negotiations still have to be fully demonstrated. USD centric risk bullishness likely still has ammunition which will be displayed in the coming days.

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New Year’s Thought on AUD/USD Potential Intervention by RBA

New Year's Thought on AUD/USD Potential Intervention by RBA

AUD/USD One Year Chart as of 1st January 2025

1 year chart of AUDUSD showing decline and lows as rumors swirl about the Reserve Bank of Australia contemplating intervention due to weak Australian Dollar.

AUD/USD and AMT thoughts: Australia’s govt is led by the Labor party which is socialist based, so it would be no surprise if they and the Reserve Bank of Australia believe (wrongly) they can intervene to help the strength of the AUD, when actually they should work on improving the fundamentals of their economy with solid fiscal policy. But being socialists they don’t know how to do that. Labor is going to lose big in the next Australian federal government election.

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Central Banks Noise: Holiday Trading Put on Hold For a Bit

Central Banks Noise: Holiday Trading Put on Hold For a Bit

As suspected the Federal Reserve sounded more cautious than many analysts expected yesterday. While the Fed did cut the Federal Funds Rate by 0.25 to 4.50%, they essentially opened the door to allowing the current borrowing rate to simmer over the mid-term. Yes, they did suggest they would like to lower interest rates, but it sounded more like wishful thinking. In response to the more aggressive rhetoric (hawkish) from the Federal Reserve financial markets became volatile in equities, Forex and bonds.

GBP/USD Three Month Chart as of 19th December 2024

The show is not over yet ladies and gentlemen, this morning the Bank of Japan repeated their typical historic stance of proving cautious, and later today the Bank of England will step onto centerstage with their Monetary Policy Summary and Official Bank Rate. And here is where things may get more odd, the BoE in many circles is not expected to cut its interest rate even though the U.K economy has been struggling and continues to publish lackluster statistics. The current borrowing rate via the Bank of England stands at 4.75%. Though the BoE should consider a rate cut of 0.25 certainly, and may even have enough reasons to decrease by 0.50, they may do absolutely nothing and that would be a mistake.

If the BoE decides to remain overtly guarded this will cause some bedlam with the GBP/USD. Large commercial players may choose to punish the GBP/USD as they consider their cash forward positions. Retail traders should be extremely careful if they choose to speculate on the British Pound in the coming hours. Not to say the GBP/USD is going to have a Liz Truss like moment from September 2022 today, but Forex traders have been selling the currency pair based on nervous outlooks over the past three months. If the Bank of England looks at the incoming headlights via the GBP/USD bearish trend and does not move, they might get run over by the truck.

Big and small traders certainly have the approaching holiday season on their minds and they might be getting things in order to take a break for the next couple of weeks, but financial markets because of the central banks actions yesterday and today will not allow for comfortable thoughts. And this is important, because some financial institutions are shuttering for the long holiday starting this Friday, they may be more prone to being quite cautious going into a period where trading volumes will light and assets will be exposed to the potential of sudden gyrations caused by large positions being placed in unbalanced markets. In other words, equities, Forex and bonds will be dangerous today and tomorrow. Behavioral sentiment will be the power.

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Federal Reserve Expected to Sound Guardedly Cautious Tmrw

Federal Reserve Expected to Sound Guardedly Cautious Tmrw

EUR/USD Five Day Chart as of 17th December 2024

Large traders are clearly bracing for the Fed tmrw as Forex produces volatile tight ranges. A rate cut is expected, but cautious Fed rhetoric will likely follow.

Forex has been a dangerous wagering ground for retail traders since the end of September. Financial institutions which clearly were betting on a more dovish Federal Reserve starting in early summer becoming a central theme into 2025 have been proven half right, this as the Fed has cut interest rates and is expected to do so tomorrow. However, being half right leaves the door open to also being half wrong, and financial institutions have reacted to this by becoming aggressive buyers of the USD since late September as perspectives have changed. The strong USD trend the past two months plus has hit some speculators hard.

The election of Donald Trump added a strong dose of impetus for USD buyers, this as the President-elect’s tough rhetoric regarding tariffs caused reactions and fear of unknown consequences. In the past couple of weeks more tranquil Forex trading has emerged and the USD finally started to give back some of its gains, yet the USD versus most major currencies, like the EUR/USD, remains within the the stronger elements of it range. While the Fed is expected to lower its Federal Funds Rate tomorrow by 0.25 to 4.50% tomorrow, traders need to remember this has been priced into Forex already. Tranquil trading the past two weeks indicates financial institutions have readjusted their outlooks to the incoming White House administration.

Now it is time to see if the U.S Federal Reserve has started to adjust their outlooks to what a Trump Presidency means. And financial institutions are keen to better understand the outlook of the U.S central bank. Inflation numbers while traversing lower are still rather stubborn and this may will not help the Fed’s mid-term mindset regarding interest rate cuts. GDP in the U.S has remained steady, and there is the potential the economy in the States will improve under Trump. Unemployment numbers while showing signs of weakness have not been terrible either. So while the Fed’s current Federal Funds Rate is higher than normal taking into consideration the historic average the past ten years, they still may not feel they have enough ability to cut interest rates too much more without sparking inflation.

A January rate cut seems unlikely at this time. If the Fed does sound guardedly cautious tomorrow, retail traders may see the USD get initially weaker due to the Fed rate cut, but then see a storm emerge and USD centric strength reappear all in the same day – perhaps in the span of minutes. Speculators need to understand that financial institutions have already baked tomorrow’s interest rate cut into the cake. So it isn’t the rate cut tomorrow that is important if it happens (if it doesn’t then that’s another story); it is what the Fed says and traders should expect them to be very cautious – because per the recent trading of the USD and a barometer it appears financial institutions are bracing for a more vigilant Fed.

Just like he has with many folks he views as uncompromising before, Donald Trump may begin to feel Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is not on his side regarding interest rate policy. If the Federal Reserve chooses to sound hesitant to cut interest rates in early 2025, it will be rather intriguing to see President-elect Trump’s response. Could a confrontation between the White House and Federal Reserve be in the cards over the next six months?

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Cocoa Surges Past 11,500 per Ton, Coffee Flying High Too

Cocoa Surges Past 11,500 per Ton, Coffee Flying High Too

Cocoa above 11,500 per ton as of 10th December 2024

Holiday chocolate about to get more expensive? Cocoa and Coffee futures are hitting highs again. Someone, somewhere is making a lot of money off of the surges.

If you are a day trader trying to pursue these commodities you need deep pockets and conservative leverage (if at all). The reversals higher in Cocoa and Coffee futures since November have been fast and dangerous, even for the large players. The notion the market is overbought is logical, but it has also been fatal for short sellers.