WTI Crude Oil 20260309

Fear Factor High in Oil Markets and Outlook is King

WTI Crude Oil Trading in a Storm (War)

Writing from within the storm, it would be easy to feel a strong sense of nervousness as the newest Middle East War rages. However, this is unlikely the beginning of World War 3. Traders looking at WTI Crude Oil this morning have seen the commodity launch over $110.00. But the price has seen a slight dip and is now hovering above $105.00 in albeit fast conditions.

WTI Crude Oil Three Month Chart on 9th March 2026

Behavioral sentiment is nervous, there is no disregarding that notion and taking it seriously. Iran has been firing missiles and drones at neighbors and Saudi Arabia has been effected via some of their oil production. The Strait of Hormuz is certainly seeing an escalation in tension and is threatening to become a sea battle.

However, while the price of WTI Crude Oil rocks higher and day traders either make or lose money fast, speculators wager on short and near-term notions, there is likely a group of folks taking another approach and watching cash prices compared to options.

Yes, the intra-day price of WTI Crude Oil and all other energy sources will remain volatile near-term, but those with a mid and long-term outlook may be betting on optimism and the belief an end game will produce calmer prices. 

WTI Crude Oil is up close to 40% percent when a mid-term perspective is used. Will the commodity remain above 100.00 USD six months from now? Will WTI Crude Oil be above $100.00 three months from now or even one?

This thinking may deliver some type of price resistance in WTI Crude Oil. Certainly, there is a chance of greater escalation. But even though it was widely reported that oil facilities in Iran were bombed this weekend by Israel, the terminals hit were on the outskirts of Teheran, not on the island of Kharg. As dangerous as the war has become and the potential of worse damage occurring, those who are striking Iran do not want to damage Kharg terminals – at least not yet.

As for endgame, Russian oil is being allowed to be sold more easily, sanctions have been relaxed. Thus, it can be said there are international efforts to fight against price spikes. There are concerns about higher oil prices causing bedlam via inflation for the global economy rightfully. However, at some juncture things will eventually calm down. And that is what day traders need to keep in mind as WTI Crude Oil has raced higher, the notion that tactically the Iranian war will reach a de-escalation period is reasonable. 

Yes, there is a threat that Iran plays the an ‘Armageddon’ card and tries to destroy all vital energy resources in the Middle East, but we have likely passed that stage. Iran in many respects, respectfully, has been declawed. Iran can threaten, but can it really bite at this point? The island of Kharg is a key barometer, its facilities remain mostly kept out of the destruction zone, WTI Crude Oil may not spike too much higher.

As for highs, this morning’s jump occurred on fear, however the price has started to calm. We could certainly still see higher values in WTI Crude Oil this week or next, but thoughts about the potential of an end game resolving the current dangers, whatever that may be and no matter how long it will take – may prove to be an important ointment.  Time shall tell.

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Outflows 20250220a

India Insider: Macro Stress a Capital Flow Problem, Not a Trade One

India Insider: Macro Stress a Capital Flow Problem, Not a Trade One

Editor’s note: This article was originally written in January 2026. It has been updated to incorporate developments through February 2026, including the U.S – India interim trade agreement and subsequent capital flow data.

India is currently experiencing what can best be described as macro stress. By macro stress, we mean pressure across the broader economy that shows up simultaneously in the currency, financial markets, and capital flows, rather than a problem limited to one sector or company. In India’s case, this stress is visible in a weak rupee, persistent foreign investor outflows, and rising concerns about equity valuations.

This stress is often misinterpreted as a trade or export problem. In reality, the pressure on the Rupee and the growing fragility in equity markets stem primarily from the capital account, not from collapsing exports or remittances. Even as the U.S Dollar softens – helped by Federal Reserve rate cuts and renewed trade tensions under U.S President Donald Trump, India continues to struggle to attract foreign capital, exposing a deeper structural imbalance.

Source: NSDL (FPI Equity Flows): Reuters and author’s calculations.

Recent weakness in the USD would normally support emerging market currencies and risk assets. This time, however, the response across emerging markets has been uneven. Capital has flowed toward economies linked to artificial intelligence, semiconductors, and commodities, as well as toward markets where valuations have already adjusted. South Korea, Hong Kong, Chile, and South Africa have all benefited from this rotation. India has not.

The Rupee’s weakness reflects this divergence. USD/INR continues to trade around ₹91.5–91.6 despite the absence of a sharp deterioration in India’s trade fundamentals. Services exports, particularly IT services, remain resilient, and remittances continue to provide a steady source of foreign exchange. This brings us to the current account.

The current account represents a country’s net trade balance with the rest of the world, including goods, services, and remittances. India runs a current account deficit, meaning it imports more than it exports. While this deficit persists, it is manageable at present, supported by stable services exports and remittance inflows.

The real problem lies in the capital account, which tracks investment flows such as foreign investors buying or selling Indian equities and bonds. When foreign capital flows into the country, it helps finance the current account deficit. When it flows out, pressure builds quickly on the currency and financial markets.

Foreign capital is neither entering India in sufficient scale, nor remaining invested. Portfolio outflows have become persistent, and this has emerged as the dominant driver of currency pressure. In calendar year 2025, foreign portfolio investors sold approximately USD 19–20 billion worth of Indian equities, marking one of the largest annual equity outflow episodes in recent years. Importantly, this selling has been sustained rather than episodic, pointing to a structural reassessment of India’s growth outlook and valuation premium rather than a temporary risk off shock.

Crucially, this capital flight is not the result of a collapse in exports to the United States. Despite tariff concerns, the U.S remains India’s largest export destination. Between April and December 2025, Indian exports to the U.S rose to roughly $65–68 billion, compared with $60–63 billion during the same period last year. Trade flows, for now, are holding up better than sentiment suggests.

The effects of capital account stress are most visible in financial markets. Indian equities are failing to attract foreign inflows as growth momentum weakens. Market leadership has narrowed, with headline indices supported by a small group of large-cap stocks, while consumption-sensitive sectors such as FMCG remain under pressure.

This dynamic fits squarely within the balance of payments framework described by Professor Michael Pettis. He described, “a country cannot sustainably run a current account deficit without stable capital inflows. When capital inflows weaken, the adjustment shows up through a weaker currency, tighter financial conditions, and pressure on asset prices.”

Indian equities now trade at some of the highest valuation multiples globally, supported largely by domestic retail and mutual fund flows. However, domestic capital is structurally constrained, while global investors can freely reallocate. As Bloomberg’s Andy Mukherjee recently noted, Indian cement stocks now trade at higher valuations than Hong Kong Tech stocks showing the exuberance of Domestic equity capital chasing local themes.

At a deeper level, India’s vulnerability reflects a structural imbalance between savings and investment. Domestic savings are insufficient relative to the economy’s long term investment needs, and the financial system lacks the institutional capacity to consistently channel savings into productivity enhancing investment. As a result, growth has become increasingly dependent on mobile foreign capital – capital that is cyclical, return sensitive, and easily reversible. It is this dependence, more than any near term trade shock, that leaves the Indian rupee vulnerable when global capital flows turn cautious.

Update: The US–India Interim Trade Agreement (February 2026)

Since this article was first written, a significant development has reshaped the near-term outlook. In early February 2026, the United States and India reached an interim trade agreement. As part of the deal, the US lowered its reciprocal tariff on Indian goods from 25% to 18%. President Trump also signed a separate executive order removing an additional punitive 25% tariff that had been imposed as a penalty for India’s purchases of Russian oil, meaning the effective tariff burden on Indian exports had, at its peak, approached 50% before being brought down to 18%.

The announcement acted as an immediate sentiment catalyst. The rupee, which had been trading in the ₹91.5–92 range under stress conditions, strengthened on the news, touching ₹90.30 before settling near ₹90.70. Foreign portfolio investors, who had spent most of 2025 as relentless net sellers, turned net buyers in the first week of February 2026, purchasing approximately $897 million worth of Indian equities.

These are meaningful moves. After 18 months of persistent underperformance relative to other emerging markets, India’s excessive valuation premium has moderated toward historical averages, which may create better entry points for global capital going forward.

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Confused Markets 20260217

Market Volatility: Structure, Geo-Politics and Culture

Why the (Free) World is so Confused and Depressed

Opinion: The following article is commentary and its views are solely those of the author. This article was first published the 16th of February via The Angry Demagogue.

Having been involved in the capital markets for the better part of the last four decades, I wouldn’t go so far as to say that I have not seen this amount of volatility and uncertainty in the markets, but I will say that this uncertainty and this volatility is different. The differences are important and have to do with the current structure of the markets as well as the geopolitical goals of the various powers and would-be powers. The trading world has changed radically over the last two decades with the advent of algorithmic trading and how they respond to global events as well as the type of money that is coming to dominate the markets.

The “type” of money has changed from those who invest in “things” – be they long term value investors like Warren Buffet and Peter Lynch, to those who chase income and dividends and to those who like to follow trends and industries. These investors, different in their own methods and goals had one thing in common – they invested in companies they felt had a future, or in the case of short-sellers (as legitimate as buyers) who thought it didn’t. The few hedge funds that were around four or five decades ago did what the name of the type of fund said – it “hedged” positions and gave up some potential upside in order to cushion losses when markets went south. That changed sometime at the end of the last century when George Soros nearly ended the United Kingdom by mercilessly shorting the Pound.

We are being very general of course and have not spoken about those who invested in bonds of “fixed income” products, corporate, federal or municipal as well as the basic speculator in all sorts of investment products. Nor have we spoken of the crooks who populate any era. We don’t want to give the impression that all was wonderful “then” – this is not a nostalgic look at the recent past but an attempt to understand what people were doing and how they did it, and how things have changed.

We are seeing now a sea change in the way the markets are responding to news and the way money is being invested. We still have the value and income investors; we have the large and small investors doing their best to pick the right stocks and bonds, and some of these investors also use options and futures to enhance and hedge their investments. Investing has become more sophisticated- read more mathematical – and the “basic” investor, large or small has been able to use this sophistication. However, the current hedge fund environment is based on much more than picking the right stocks or bonds and all that goes with it. The current hedge fund system is a group of funds, many of multiple hundreds of millions or even billions of dollars that don’t make investments per se as they try to beat their competitors by the microsecond in order to profit a very small amount on a a large but extremely short term investment (we will speak of the money of unfree countries, below).

As an example, there are dozens of hedge funds who work their “algos” to respond to market news and announcements only to get out of the position within minutes or even seconds. Each algo basically says the same thing – if X happens then buy and if Y happens, sell. The only difference is who will buy or sell quicker and then reverse what they have done. There have always been those with fingers on the button ready to buy or sell but the amounts were smaller and the effect less. Today, the reaction time is so quick that the large firms have their servers in the stock exchange buildings, close to the exchange computers so that they will get their orders in first. Remember, these are electronic so they are going at the speed of light. The difference between 100 feet way and 100 miles should not matter – but it does. We are talking the difference between 0.0000001 seconds for 100 feet and 0.000537 seconds for 100 miles – a time difference that people cannot discern.

This of course is not necessarily a bad thing if the algos themselves were correct for the long or even medium term (or what used to be called the short term – a quarter of a year). But they are programmed for the shortest of short term – what will happen over the next 30 or 40 seconds or maybe a day or two or a week. We see incredible volatility and panic where we should find none. A good or bad jobs report, inflation release or even a Federal Reserve rate cut or hike might have long term consequences but these trades that cause this radical volatility are not concerned with that. The market dropping two or three percent in a matter of minutes does not provide the comfort that investors usually seek. People jump on the bandwagon fearing the worst –when it was just the algos responses to the news rather than intelligent judgement on the news that drove the prices.

We will stop with the details and summarize – a large part of the uncertainty of the markets is structural as technology and the sheer amount of money being traded has surpassed what the markets, as currently structured can stand. As an example, as an employee of the Nasdaq Stock Market in the early 1990’s we were told to prepare for a 1 billion share day. During those days, there were very few shares that traded above $100 as the companies wanted more investors and there were many stock splits (more rare these days). The 1 billion share day in 1995 would have totaled around $40 billion. Today, daily trading activity has passed 15 billion shares and the total money is above $1 trillion.

It is not clear what structural changes need to be made in order to take all of this into consideration, but we do have some ideas (which we won’t bore you with now).

The second major issue that is the cause of the volatility and uncertainty in the markets has to do with what news is “good” and what news is “bad”. Not in the moral sense but in the economic and geo-political sense. What we mean by this is that there does not seem to be a unified view in the Western world where it should be going and because of this, it is not clear what news is in fact good and what is not. Economically it might be easier to figure out but even that has been hard since so many major American cities and so many young people are voting socialist and so much foreign money from non-free countries is flooding the market. News may say one thing for a free market economy and something entirely else for a planned socialist economy. It might mean one thing for investors in New York or Cleveland and something entirely different in China or Qatar.

Therefore, geo-politically the uncertainty is confusing. During the cold war of course we basically understood what moves were positive and which were negative. That is not to say there were no policy arguments but for the most part, the ends were agreed upon. Selling grain to the Soviets may or may not have bettered the Western world but both those like Henry Kissinger who supported it and Senator Scoop Jackson who opposed it argued based on the same goal – what was better for the free world.

This goes beyond who is considered the “enemies of the West” to what is considered the West – or even if it exists! We have always tried to write here from the perspective of what is good for free countries even if many free countries seem to think that Israel, for example, is not a member of that community. The same goes for those who doubt the cause that Ukraine is fighting for, as they support the Putin tyranny in the name of balance or alleged Christian values or whatnot. Interestingly, both sides – the right in the Russia-Ukraine war (and the Tuckeronian Right regarding Israel, too) and the left in the Israel-Islamist war – are willing to forgo freedom for some amorphous, form of justice or truth.

Iran is the perfect example. In every measure of Western values since WWII the Islamic Republic of Iran is an evil country. It denies freedom to its citizens, massacres them, executes women for immodesty and homosexuals for being homosexual. We don’t have to go on regarding the evils of the Islamic Republic of Iran but even with that, there are those in the West who support it. We are not talking about the legitimate policy debate regarding a war with Iran – morally as well as politically – but rather the fact that many just don’t consider that Iran is on the wrong side. Israel as we said is another example, but we can go on and on. Venezuela, Cuba and even China come to mind.

True enough, there were always people in the West that thought the Soviet Union or Maoist China was morally “better” than the United States or Europe, but never did they influence the politics, culture and businesses as the current naysayers do. The markets “understood’ that the Soviet Union was bad and reacted accordingly. The geo-political goals were mostly in sync.

The global markets reflect the geo-politics of the day and “vote” on it in a daily basis. The fact that there is a vast sum of money that influences the markets that are actively opposed to the freedom project – China, Qatar and Russia come to mind – does not help the situation. It is not the “foreign” money that disturbs the markets but rather which foreign money. There is a difference between an investor who is looking for the good company or the safe bond, and one who is looking to use their investment to further a radical Islamist or Chinese Communist agenda. President Trump’s trillion dollars of investments from Qatar and Saudi Arabia and others comes with a price tag he does not usually deal with – the price tag of undermining the market economy that has made him so successful. The proof of “goodwill” in the investments in the United States ought to be shown before that money flows into the economy. They have already contributed to ruining the universities (not that they needed the help) – there is no reason to permit them to ruin America’s great corporations, too.

The markets are crazy due to its structural issues and due to the “uncertainty” that is today’s world. Sadly, that uncertainty is not just uncertainty about what will happen, but uncertainty about what is good or bad (news). This goes beyond unity and “can’t we just get along?” and gets to the heart of why we are living today in the same culture. We say culture instead of country or city since that culture is the one that “got us here” as basketball or football coaches like to say.

The lack of agreement as to what matters most has affected the markets more than we think, and it all has contributed to the depression that so many in the free world are feeling at the moment.

Disclaimer: the views expressed in this opinion article are solely those of the author, and not necessarily the opinions reflected by angrymetatraders.com or its associated parties.

You can follow Ira Slomowitz via The Angry Demagogue on Substack https://iraslomowitz.substack.com/ 

 

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postR176

Make Common Sense Great Again: On Moving Away from Nuance

Make Common Sense Great Again: On Moving Away from Nuance

Opinion: The following article is commentary and its views are solely those of the author. This article was first published the 23rd of July 2024 via The Angry Demagogue.

Has there been a total breakdown of readiness in the West? When we look at seemingly unrelated events we see that people in responsible positions in governments around the Western world have missed signs that are obvious – and not only after the fact. The attempted Trump assassination just got me thinking how no one seems to react to the obvious anymore. It seems that both the local police and the Secret Service knew that this young man was on a roof with a rifle and no one took the most elementary actions of delaying Trump’s appearance or trying to stop the shooter or even ascertain his motives all of which was obvious to everyone else. We are not talking about someone missing a shot at him or even forgetting to check a specific place, but an active decision was made – to do nothing.

On October 6 and 7 the IDF Chief of Staff and his senior advisors on the General Staff heard of possible Hamas plans to attack, knew of previous intelligence that detailed the exact attack that happened and even refused a request of the head of the Southern Command to move 4 helicopters closer to Gaza. Instead of doing even the minimum, they just did nothing. They ignored the obvious and ruled purposely against common sense and in favor of their own preconceived notions.

As Russia was massing troops on the border and as Putin’s talk was becoming more and more belligerent the US administration did nothing that might have at least hinted to Putin that this could only lead to disaster. Putting US troops on a higher alert, inviting the Ukrainian ambassador to the White House as a show of support – anything really, might have given Putin food for thought. As Iran moves closer and closer to attaining a nuclear weapon and taking control of the middle east, the West just does nothing. Destroying Houthi assets (as the Israelis have just done), sending B52’s into the sky for training missions to destroy Islamic Republic assets – all that might have made the Iranian rulers wonder what was in store for them and limiting the war to Gaza. But again, against common sense, nothing was done because …. Wishful thinking.

If those responsible were acting like boys in the school playground (are boys still allowed to play in the playground?) they would have done more than they did in all these cases. 

Since the end of the Cold War we have seen the abandonment of common sense in favor of sophisticated analyses where nuance trumps simplicity and bias dominates the analysis of data and where cliches overtake serious policy. In classical Jewish biblical exegesis, there is one rule which nearly all (non-mystical) commentators hold and that is that the exegesis cannot contradict the simple meaning of the words of the Bible.  True enough, that is stretched to points of wonder sometimes – but they still cling to the rule. 

Common sense is underrated in policy analysis and often in business, but those who ignore it now will be challenged later. Common sense means the acceptance of what people say and looking at data without bias. Common sense means that you have to understand the person you are talking to and don’t assume they think like you. 

Back in my university days I read a lot of Hannah Arendt, who, in spite of the banality of her banality of evil theory had a lot to say. In her book “The Human Condition” she speaks of common sense – or as she often puts it “the sense of the common”.

I would like to quote her here, even though I tend to think she would not have thought that it was the rulers, the policy makers and the writers who are ignoring common sense:

“The only character of the world by which to gauge its reality is its being common to us all, and common sense occupies such a high rank in the hierarchy of political qualities because it is the one sense that fits into reality as a whole our five strictly individual senses and the strictly particular data they perceive.  It is by virtue of common sense that the other sense perceptions are known to disclose reality …. A noticeable decrease in common sense in any given community and a noticeable increase in superstition and gullibility are therefore almost infallible signs of alienation from the world.”

Arendt of course assumed that the lower or working classes were susceptible to superstition and gullibility but in these times it is the ruling classes that have abandoned common sense in favor of superstition and gullibility. It is they who are alienated from the world. Preconceived notions that contradict the plain meaning of the world is today’s superstition – and it is no less dangerous and irrational than the superstitions of times past.

Let’s take a brief look at these policy decisions by nearly all western countries, regardless of their geographical location or economic outlooks, their demographic trends or the overall culture of their people and their neighbors resulting directly or indirectly of the perilous situation the free world is now in.

Defense Spending and Force Size

The post-cold war “peace dividend” became an idol of western policy makers.  Massive cuts in defense spending even in things that were very necessary to the maintenance of said “peace dividend” – like naval power – was the preferred way of dealing with the end of the Soviet Union. The “End of History” was read simplistically instead of realizing that other ideologies and other powers might very soon challenge the victorious west. Some thinkers, I think of a professor of mine (Elie Krakowski) who back in 1979-80, before the collapse of the Soviet Union, spoke of Islam as the third force which will challenge the West and the East. I studied in a small university and if we were discussing it back then how are policy makers in Washington, London, Tel Aviv and Paris not speaking of it today?

While Edward Said’s “Orientalism” was the talk of the town, Bernard Lewis and Fouad Ajami were, despite their posts at Princeton and Johns Hopkins, not taken seriously enough. If they were, the US Navy would not have gone from 594 ships in 1987 to 275 in 2016. The British Navy  went from about 170 ships in 1970 to well under 50 in 2017. The rest of Western Europe we all know about. But at least countries like Netherlands, Belgium and Denmark don’t face hostile neighbors and were never meant to have forces that would do more than assist in minor operations.

Israel on the other hand has always faced neighbors who have desired to destroy it.  Even the countries with which it signed peace treaters, Jordan and Egypt, have never been able to translate these treaties into popular support and are always a coup away from belligerence. The history of dictatorships in general and of the Middle East in particular ought to have given the Israeli high command at least a hint as to what they might be facing. With the advent of Iran as a major regional power with the means and desire to spread its theo-revolutionary ideology, Israel ought to have realized that the era of wars was not over. Yet, since 2000 Israel has cut 6 divisions and decommissioned 2,000 tanks from its forces. It has cut military service for men from 36 to 32 months, even as it has not increased the mandatory service for woman from 24 months even though it has increased the amount of women in combat and combat support roles. The ultra-orthodox still don’t serve (they are about 16% of the draft class) zero even after October 7 and the number of youth who have received exemptions due to “psychological” reasons has skyrocketed to nearly 13% of the draft class. I don’t mean to belittle those with true psychological issues but rather the high numbers signify that many if not most are of a class that allows them to afford to pay psychologists for convenient diagnoses.

In other words – the IDF, the Finance Ministry and the political class all found it convenient to reduce the size of the army – both manpower and equipment – and used the excuse that there will be no more ground wars to justify the move.

The Ukraine conflict revealed to the world that US arms production of even the most basic arms is not enough for the US itself to maintain minimal levels during wartime.   The current Middle East conflict has magnified this disaster.

Common sense readiness has been ignored throughout the Western world due to sophisticated thinking more wishful than realistic. This is nothing less than a messianic and superstitious belief in the end of wars.

Immigration and Assimilation

If there is one issue that common sense has missed it is immigration. The reactions of average citizens to unlimited immigration in Western democratic countries has been uniform – NO! In some countries the yelling is louder but in all western countries there is significant opposition, on common sense grounds often, to the establishment immigration policies.

I am an immigrant to Israel and my grandparents were immigrants to the United States. Immigration, the movement of peoples from place to place has been going on since people left Africa – and before. But there is no separating immigration from assimilation unless your immigration is due to imperialism and conquest.  The Romans, Greeks, Chinese and Persians of ancient times, the Arabs of late antiquity were all imperialists. There was of course the age of imperialism that ended in WWI. But 21st century immigration is not of national conquest but of individual movement of people and families. One by definition must adapt to the local cultures – in the widest sense of the word. If a cotton farmer from Arizona wants to move to Iowa, he better adapt to the climate and figure out how to grow wheat or soybeans instead of cotton. If an aristocrat from England decides to move to the United States, he needs to know that his family heritage and titles won’t get him much. If a Spanish or Chinese speaker moves to Germany, the expectation is that he will learn to speak German.

An immigrant who does not respect the local culture in all its manifestations needs to get permission in order to stay in the new country. That is the way of the nation-state that has protected freedom in the western world so well (if not always so well). We can’t compare the 21st century to the pre-WWI world where borders were porous and people that survived the trip across a continent or an ocean could settle in that new land. Some more successfully than others. 

Common sense dictates that an immigrant that does not respect the laws of his new home has no right to live there. Yet, time and again, immigration policy has been separated from the law and being law abiding has no bearing on future citizenship.  Therefore, there is no demand from the immigrant and no opportunity for the immigrant to assimilate and be part of the social fabric of his new country. That being said, the mass Islamic immigration into Europe could be said to be imperialistic as the leaders of these communities have discouraged any type of rapprochement with Western values and law. That, along with the demographic collapse of indigenous Europe has put Europe on the brink of either a civil war or a peaceful surrender to Islamic imperial forces.  

Free Trade and Social Peace

There is no doubting that free trade brings prosperity and that economic growth better than any other global trading system. Free trade  is also the best way to lift the global poor out of poverty. The U.S constitution understood the importance of free trade, as states were prohibited from starting trade wars with each other.   This has also been the “good” in the E.U and has produced much prosperity in that Union.

Yet, free trade with allies needs to be differentiated between free trade with enemies  – meaning those that oppose our system. Free trade that allows your enemies to defeat you militarily is not free trade but suicide. So too, trade policies need to have social issues taken into consideration. This is not a call for tariffs or against free trade pacts, especially with neighbors, but rather they need to be adjusted with common sense solutions to employment and other problems that will arise from any economic change. 

Social peace is the second half of this section because, besides immigration, the erosion, not to say destruction of physically intensive jobs can and often does lead to social violence for reasons obvious to those with common sense.

Energy and Food Supply

For the most part, you would think that after national defense, it is a government’s first responsibility to its citizens to guarantee the food and energy supply of its citizens. Before we get to luxury and access to travel, the ready supply of food and energy seems to be the minimum that a government ought to do. And yet, when we speak of issues related to climate change (and lets not get into the “is it or isn’t it real” argument) the solutions first mandated to the problem have to do with limiting both of these items without which we cannot live. In California, farmer’s access to water is limited even after the drought due to concerns about some fish and climate, and in the Netherlands they want to pay farmers to stop producing food so that the Earth will not suffer. 

What is the plan here? Regarding energy supply, one would think that shoring up access to alternative energy would take priority over banning current ways of producing energy. In California, they have been having rolling blackouts in the summer for years and they are looking to ban gas stoves and ovens and gasoline powered cars. Private jets and yachts though are off limits for obvious reasons. What is the plan there? Is there any real preparation?

As for food supply, is the  plan to reduce population or to reduce calory intake? To what levels? Is there an expectation that people will starve themselves to “save the planet”? Again – I am not arguing for or against human causes of climate change but rather, for the common sense understanding that securing the world’s food supply takes priority over closing farms or turning them into organic utopias.

A perfect example is Sri Lanka where those in power bought into the organic farming ideology of Western aristocrats and they ended all non-organic farming causing a famine and a depression. People who worked hard their whole lives lost all their savings as they were unwilling participants in a cruel experiment to see if organic farming can feed a small island nation.  

In sum – a bit less nuance and a bit more common sense – a bit more sensing what is “common to us all” would be welcome in political and policy matters. Maybe if we pursued more common sense policies and a lot less superstition and bias there would be less yelling and screaming in the public square. 

Disclaimer: the views expressed in this opinion article are solely those of the author, and not necessarily the opinions reflected by angrymetatraders.com or its associated parties.

You can follow Ira Slomowitz via The Angry Demagogue on Substack https://iraslomowitz.substack.com/ 

postR174

The Oldest Hate: Why The Hague Needs to Convict Israel

The Oldest Hate: Why The Hague Needs to Convict Israel

Opinion: The following article is commentary and its views are solely those of the author. This article was first published the 14th of June via The Angry Demagogue.

The oldest hate is also the most frustrating hate – why is there antisemitism and why does it never end?  All the reasons to hate the Jews have been refuted by Jewish actions. We are filthy capitalists and then communists. We are separatists and then assimilationists. We are stateless and we have a state. The list goes on and on and we can come to the conclusion that there is no answer.

The late Lutheran Pastor turned Catholic Priest, Richard John Neuhaus said years ago – I paraphrase as I don’t remember the exact quite – if you don’t like Christian America, just wait until you get post-Christian America. No one can doubt that for centuries Christianity was the source of antisemitism in the European continent as Jews were the easy scapegoats to everything from the Plague to economic crashes. But with the dawn of the scientific age, Christian antisemitism lost its cache along with Christianity itself. What we are dealing with now is an antisemitism of the nihilists.

The nihilists are those anti-semites who, like the operettist Wagner and the philosophers Karl Marx and Voltaire started a trend that reached it climax with Nazi and Stalinist totalitarianism and has now made a comeback with a combination of Islamist and progressive ideologies which are all based on the glorification of violence and cruelty that we see in ISIS, Hamas, Fatah, Al-Qaeda and now manifesting itself in America’s great cities and universities. The question still remains – why do all of these seemingly contradictory ideas all converge in anti-semitism?  

The answer, it seems to me lies in exactly that one international body that was created in the wake of the actions of greatest and most horrible of anti-semitic regimes – the Nazi perpetrators of the Holocaust. The Western world – the modern Christian west, led by the United States, felt it needed laws of war and international bodies that would continue the work of the Nuremberg Trials and make sure all those who would perpetrate genocide would, eventually, be brought to justice. That these bodies have failed miserably is proven by the genocides in Rwanda and Cambodia, the mass murders going on in Sudan and other parts of Africa, the genocide, still ongoing of Sunni Muslims in Syria and the Chinese incarceration in concentration camps (and who knows what else?) of the Uyghurs. 

So why Israel? Why is Israel, why are the Jews the main enemies of the new nihilists?

The enemy is the moral code that the Bible brought into the world – a code that protected slaves from cruel behavior, a code that did not allow the rape of women captured in war, a code that limited the number of horses and wives a king could have, a code with laws of war. Maimonides, writing in the middle ages in Spain and then Egypt, has a whole section of his Code on the laws of kings and war.  Jews didn’t always follow the law and the books of Joshua and Judges are filled with difficult passages but the commandments were there, nonetheless.

Hugo Grotius, writing in the 16th and 17th century developed Just War theory based on Christian thinking and that has formed the basis of the international laws of warfare ever since. This certainly would not have happened without the Bible and the codes that followed it and this is what the nihilists hate most of all.  

Israel is at the heart of the progressive Western, radical Islamic, pan-Slavic and Communist revolt against the containment of violence, cruelty and bloodlust under the rubric of a higher moral law. Maybe it is true that man’s natural state is war, as Hobbes believed.  Maybe Heraclitus is right that “war is the father of us all and our king” and maybe as he continued, it “discloses who is godlike and who is but a man” but the Judeo-Christian tradition taught us that we need to overcome this nature and to live with a moral code that can overcome it and change what it means to be “godlike”.   

The “court” in the Hague represents that pagan and nihilistic outlook on life and the desire to return to a time where violence and cruelty is unregulated, where war can be fought without the rules that the Jews foisted onto mankind. Camille Paglia writes in her magnum oppose “Sexual Personae” that society is the “defense against nature’s power”. Without society and the moral and behavioral codes that make it up, Paglia writes, we would be” storm-tossed on the barbarous sea that is nature”.

Convicting Israel of violating the very laws it itself created will finally put an end to the “farce that is morality” according to the nihilists and return us to that “barbarous sea that is nature”. The destruction of Israel will allow the world to finally defeat that 3,000 year old code that we call the Judeo-Christian heritage that prohibits the nihilists from living as they wish. The Hague needs to convict Israel and the woke left along with radical Islam need to finish the job on the battlefield so that they can return to their beloved state of nature.

They hate the Jews now because we have provided them with the framework to be civilized and they hate civilization most of all.  

Israel will be convicted in the Hague because to find it innocent means the nihilists will be shackled to a morality that prevents them from cruelly murdering, raping and destroying as they please. It means that Hollywood will not be able to continue glorifying the dismemberment of children in their “realistic” crime dramas. It means the universities will have to teach of truth and beauty and not perpetuate the bloody ideologies it loves. It means that they will have to subordinate their beloved blood thirsty ideologies to that horrible bourgeois virtue, human kindness.

Disclaimer: the views expressed in this opinion article are solely those of the author, and not necessarily the opinions reflected by angrymetatraders.com or its associated parties.

You can follow Ira Slomowitz via The Angry Demagogue on Substack https://iraslomowitz.substack.com/

post20

USDINR: 83/$ & Above is a Possibility

USDINR: 83/$ & Above is a Possibility

The Indian Rupee continues to remain under pressure as volatility in the global market triggers capital outflows amid investors concerns over the stress levels in banks worldwide especially in the U.S and in Europe.

RBI Governor Das yesterday, said in a conference that India today has a well regulated and well supervised banking sector.

Not to forget, India has past issues with some private banks that have been lending to corporations that defaulted on their debt . Yes Bank and Lakshmi Villas Bank are some of these examples, and today these banks are well capitalized and their loan books are diversified as the RBI has tightened its grip on regulatory frameworks.

Also, the loan books of Indian banks are being more diversified, and Government Bonds portfolios are comprising only 18-22% of the total assets, meaning banks are not at greater risk than their western counterparts.

The central bank of India holds Forex reserves of over $560 billion USD and has been actively intervening in the Spot & Forward markets since 2022 as the U.S Federal Reserve started to raise rates to tackle higher inflation. Governor Das also cautioned, ”the worst of inflation is behind us,” but pointed out that with the Russia – Ukrainian war, along with monetary tightening by major central banks, that there is still stress for nations that have high external debt and more capital outflows, which can put pressure on their currencies and trigger imported inflation.

India also has sticker inflation of around 6.4% down from 6.52% in January, this while the RBI is expected to raise rates by 25 bps in the April monetary policy meeting . The Indian Rupee was among the worst-performing currencies among emerging Asian peers last year, counter weighed by a stronger dollar and outflows from local assets. 

As a net importer of oil from Russia which grew 4 times in 2022, and less exposure to external debt means headwinds from shocks will be minimal which will help the Indian Rupee. However, as growth slows down in the West, this means more capital outflows and a flight to safer assets possibly taking place.

The RBI stance is very different than a month ago, where it didn’t allow markets to take the Indian Rupee above 83/$, but now it’s significant that the central bank could let to the USD/INR depreciate above 83 to save foreign exchange reserves.

The RBI’s equation is very simple as the Federal Reserve reduced its rates to zero back in 2020 because of Covid19, more money chased speculative assets especially in the emerging markets. And the RBI accumulated a lot of Forex reserves. Now the tables have changed. In addition to this, India also is not keen to add its bonds to global indexes due to concerns over potential ensuing market volatility not supporting capital inflows, and thus perhaps damaging the Rupee.

With current account deficits widening to 4.4% of India GDP in Q2, this means India needs to work hard to achieve better capital flows, particularly as tensions on some important global banks continue to be demonstrated.

post18

We Have Seen This Show Before Friends

We Have Seen This Show Before Friends

Another day, week, month and year – another financial crisis causing havoc. We have seen this show before, and experienced traders should make sure friends who are ‘newbies’ are prepared for what is going to happen next. And what is next is: unknown.

People who believe they can profit from the current mess in the markets need to have deep pockets to sustain choppy conditions and a time parameter that allows for volatile prices until the results targeted are achieved. Day traders need to have very narrow goals, because if they do not cash out of the market quickly, then they should expect to get burned by the price velocity which will ensue.

Sharks Eating the Minnows as Crony Capitalism Flourishes

The demise of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank are unpleasant surprises, but not shocking, and not to sound too matter of fact or contradictory, but the handwriting has been on the wall. The aggressive stance by the Federal Reserve finally caused enough nervousness in the stock markets to make certain equities shake and the banking sector has proven vulnerable. It is easy for many corporations to make money when it is cheap, but when ‘and not so suddenly’ borrowing costs, inflation and bonds chaos combine and deliver mayhem then profitable outcomes become more difficult, and for some – impossible. Corporate investors do not look kindly on mid-term and long-term projections which hint of negative growth implications. Investors tend to punish these equities.

Gold One Month Chart

What comes over the next week and month will likely anger many people. Capitalism is good, it is even great. However, a dark and evil shadow lurks when crony capitalism starts to have an upper hand. The insolvency of Silicon Valley Bank raises the prospect for crony capitalism to be witnessed by all. Suddenly the U.S Treasury, Federal Reserve and government have emerged to save the skin of depositors within a bank which up until last week was heralding its ability to be a ‘lone wolf’; merrily disregarding sound investment principles and saying they knew better. It is only my opinion, but it stinks of contradiction that both the U.S Federal Reserve and Silicon Valley Bank have made vast mistakes and now are being allowed to cover their tracks and protect members of their ‘club’. Both Fed and Silicon Valley Bank officers need to be held accountable, but do not count on this result producing more than scapegoats.

Rising interest rates which are causing ‘import inflation’ has been a worry expressed by some economists and they can still be heard, but obviously not given enough attention. The Fed has marched to its own drummer and disregarded ‘the street’ for its own ideals and statistics viewed from its ‘ivory tower’ where it could not be held accountable.

Inflation is stubborn, yes, but it is a result of chaos via global commerce from the effects of difficult supply and logistics problems caused by coronavirus. Inflation became problematic two years ago and it was essentially disregarded for about nine months, until the Fed and others admitted rising prices was a concern. Hopes of transitory inflation have faded into oblivion. But I digress…..

Nervous Financial Institutions Battling as Federal Reserve Wavers

A sin bin of mistakes has collected and is now being exposed. Many financial houses were surprised when the Fed came out on the 1st of February and sounded so aggressive talking about inflation while increasing the Federal Funds rate again. Then jobs numbers came out on the 3rd of February, along with Average Hourly Earnings and showed the U.S economy was stronger than expected. The USD began to find strength again, and inflation data then added an extra punch by coming in strong again in February via the CPI results.

Btw, Consumer Price Index will be published today too from the U.S, and this will cause a reverberation for those attempting to day trade among waters filled with nervous financial houses who have their programmed algos ready to take advantage of hectic markets. Volatility the next handful of trading days is set to be wild. The Fed is not likely to raise interest rates by half a basis point on the 22nd of March, but if CPI numbers are stronger than anticipated today, this could cause a tremor and fear. Even if the Fed pauses for the moment, the prospects of raising interest rates again in the near future unless the banking sector shows it cannot sustain another round of Federal Fund increases is troublesome. Nothing like a complete lack of clarity for short-term traders to cause bedlam and a complex gauntlet of inflation statistics to make the Federal Reserve squirm.

Traders have to understand that if they are going to attempt to wager on the markets in the near-term that they are taking a huge risk. The use of leverage could provide solid profits on a winning bets via Forex, commodities or CFD wagers, but it could also wipe a trader completely out if they are caught by a violent wave. And the U.S Federal Reserve is not here to protect small traders, they frankly do not consider your results very much and likely believe you should not be wagering.

What the U.S government and its institutions like the Fed, Treasury and FDIC want to do is guard against systemic risks for the larger speculators – corporate traders, banks, hedge funds, V.C’s, etc. to make sure they do not go belly up and cause a global financial sink hole and long-term ruptures. The financial crisis of 2007 and 2008, the coronavirus pandemic starting in 2020 and the ongoing Ukrainian war have tested the markets and were likely enough for most of us to voice troubles. Now the prospects of a far-reaching banking crisis and illiquidity adding fuel to the fire are quite a combination of risk events usable as costly teaching moments. Do we seriously need another teaching moment however?

We are the little people and nobody sees us. We may yell, we may bellow our angst towards the system, but the system treats us as an afterthought. Day traders should keep this in mind as they bet in the coming days, because more gyrations are likely as a metaphoric ‘country club for institutional risk takers’ is given sanctuary. This as we minnows look up, shaking our heads in disbelief while our trading accounts flounder.

post9

Escalation of Rhetoric doesn’t create Calm Investors

Escalation of Rhetoric doesn't create Calm Investors

Putin and U.S Federal Reserve will Stir U.S Markets Today

An escalation of rhetoric via Russian President Vladimir Putin regarding his nation’s war with Ukraine took place this morning via a televised address to the Russian people. Putin has said Russia will call upon those with previous military training, and use a ‘limited’ call up of potential new troops. A claim of nearly 300,000 additional soldiers to be readied has been made by senior Russian officials shortly after Putin’s speech.

Making matters more intense, Putin said all military options are possible while Russia protects its sovereign territory. The land he was speaking about however, is not recognized Russian territory, it is Ukrainian soil. Putin’s ‘talk’ to Russia has firmly put him in a position which shows that results from the Ukrainian war have not had favorable results and that he is showing signs of frustration. An anxious Vladimir Putin is not about to calm down what are already nervous global markets.

China Urges a De-escalation in Ukraine while not naming Russia

China has already reacted to Putin’s speech by urging all sides active in the Ukrainian conflict to de-escalate the situation. China has its own economic worries presently and certainly doesn’t need another bad ingredient thrown into its midst as it deals with weaker demand for export products and a shaky real estate market as the global economy reacts to inflation and recessionary concerns.

International traders will hardly hear what China had to say today, not because it isn’t important, but because their attention will be on Putin and the U.S Federal Reserve. However, it is important to point out China did not condemn Russia, instead it asked that all sides involved in the Ukrainian sphere to lessen the dangers. China and its relationship with Russia remains an important aspect of global politics.

The U.S Federal Reserve will raise Interest Rates Today

The U.S Fed will raise its interest rate by 0.75% today according to most financial houses which have already acted accordingly within Forex per interpreted price action. The USD has made new long term highs within the USD/ZAR and the USD/CAD. The EUR is below par as of this writing against the USD, and the JPY and GBP also continue to struggle near long term lows versus the USD.

USD/CAD One Month Chart

U.S equity indices which have been struggling are not showing a massive promise of a reversal upwards which will alleviate losses seen this year. Investors need to remain patient if they are invested in indices such as the S&P 500. Day traders looking to profit from the volatility ripping through the markets will continue to be challenged by choppy conditions, difficult perceptions of short term technical charts and a lack of positive behavioral sentiment among the larger players in the marketplace who actually drive the markets most of the time.

  • USD remains stronger against many major and emerging market currencies, day traders need to be very careful if they pursue Forex positions in the short term.

  • U.S equity indices traded lower yesterday, and if the Federal Reserve falters and doesn’t offer solid clarity regarding interest rates today, this could create more nervousness.

Optimism is not being heard far and wide. While it is always interesting to be a contrarian and sometimes the correct avenue to engage thinking, the notion that upwards trajectories will suddenly occur may be wishful thinking in the near and mid term. Many asset classes are under stress.

Today’s upcoming pronouncements from the Fed will be important for institutional investors as they try to gauge the U.S central bank’s outlook until early 2023. If the Fed gives clues they will remain hawkish into the winter and a Funds rate around 4.50 to 5.00%is a possibility, this could shake investors and cause more capitulation – meaning a stronger selloff via equity indices could ensue. Short term traders will need to be prepared for violent conditions if they are day traders of stocks or CFDs. The inverted U.S bond yields remains a sign investors are seeking short and mid-term safety via interest rates to preserve money.

The fact that most traders are typically buyers first, not sellers first makes trading in bear markets difficult. Psychologically humans want to be optimistic. Today’s speech by Vladimir Putin while it doesn’t change the conditions on the ground in the Ukraine immediately, will shake the confidence of some financial houses which may have become accustomed to a ‘polite war’ they could ‘forget’ about and make believe would not get loud again. Nervous behavior is likely to be seen later today as early risers in the States awake to the news of Putin’s speech and react.

In short global markets will be dynamic today and tomorrow, as financial houses position their portfolios according to their foresight regarding developments the next few months. Day traders are urged to be cautious, and the prospect of sitting on the sidelines and watching ‘the show’ may prove to be a solid choice.