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India Insider: Women in Agriculture Need Manufacturing Power

India Insider: Women in Agriculture Need Manufacturing Power

India has long been a society that has neglected Women’s Empowerment. While various states pursue proactive policies to enhance the role of women in society, their inclusion in the job market and ability to have financial independence is still lacking.

Small Scale Farm in Tiruvannamalai, India

In the suburbs of Tiruvannamalai City, in Tamil Nadu, Mrs. Revathi runs an agricultural farm where she grows rice, flowers, and vegetables. She sells them to local commission agents or directly to customers from her farm. Mrs. Revathi, who lost her husband in 2019, has two daughters, both of whom are educated and working. One of the daughters is getting married. She said that although agriculture helps her family earn money, it does not lift them out of the poverty trap because of uneven flower cultivation. The land is becoming less and less suitable for irrigation – a matter that worries her greatly too. Flowers are one of the major sources of income for many farming families in Tiruvannamalai City in Tamil Nadu.

This is just a small example of the challenges faced by women working in agriculture.
According to recent Periodic Labor Force Surveys, 64.4% of women in India work in agriculture, compared to only 36.3% of men.

Labor Workforce Percentage in India per Gender

Self employment and Access to Credit is not the Solution:

Many argue that self-employment and steady access to credit via microfinance institutions will help women become entrepreneurs and create movement up the social ladder. This is true in some cases, but many women struggle with raising families in their husband’s absence, and when working on farms where agricultural productivity is lopsided or unfit for growing vegetables or corn, times remain difficult.

First of all, why do women choose agriculture and remain small-time sellers? Because they are not able to find employment easily in formal sectors like manufacturing or other service oriented businesses.

Even within related agricultural sectors, women employed in vegetable processing plants, or value-added goods like masala manufacturing and tomato sauce production companies earn higher wages.

Unfortunately, low productivity and long spells of inactivity render agricultural workers significantly underemployed periodically. They are stuck, with nowhere else to go. Unlike in East Asian nations, which created mass employment through dynamic exports of manufactured goods, the Indian manufacturing sector’s low productivity makes it globally uncompetitive.

Manufacturing as a Solution for Women Empowerment:

Across Asia manufacturing has proven to be a powerful driver for upwards mobility. Incomes have risen, poverty has declined, and women are central parts of this transformation. In Vietnam, where a factory boom has been especially momentous, more than 68 percent of women and girls over 15 years of age are working for pay in some capacity, this according to data compiled by the World Bank. In China the rate is 63 percent, in Thailand 59 percent, and in Indonesia 53 percent of workers in manufacturing are women. Yet in India, less than 33 percent of women account for the workforce in recorded in official surveys.

In a pattern demonstrated in many industrializing societies, when more women gain jobs, families promptly invest further in education for girls. Manufacturing also lifts household spending power, fueling economic expansion that encourages investors to build more factories, providing additional jobs and reciprocal wealth creation. India is missing out on this dynamic manufacturing growth and is failing to broadly participate in the spread of improved industrialization which has helped bolster fortunes in many Asian economies and benefitted families. A vital component for a stronger Indian economy necessitates the empowerment of women.

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Risk Analysis Review: Warning about Coronavirus in Feb. 2020

Risk Analysis Review: Warning about Coronavirus in Feb. 2020

Below is a risk analysis note written in February of 2020 regarding the risks and potential implications of coronavirus as seen by Robert Petrucci on financial markets. The letter was sent to a senior associate who was a Chief Investment Officer for a firm. After speaking to the senior associate on the phone, feeling as if his thoughts were dismissed without heed and told he was too concerned about coronavirus, Mr. Petrucci sent the following to the CIO:

Thanks for asking about my thoughts.

What worries me is the opportunity for the virus to be a catalyst. The reactions in the E.U by government talking heads reminds me a lot of the financial crisis in 2007 when people publicly disregarded the potential domino effect which was becoming apparent. 

The Coronavirus imo is a potential domino which could take down the remainder of a fragile architecture. Meaning the ill-conceived philosophy and work of central banks in Asia and Europe have left them with little regarding ammunition should they need to fire an economic gun. If Europe and Asia buckle the US will be left limping too.

Psychologically the markets appear vulnerable, but as you rightly point out the higher realms of the Indices have been waiting for a bit of a sell off for a long time and the selling underway may be more of a reaction and mere trigger which has been long overdue. 

However, I wonder about the ‘clever’ algorithms which have been developed and trade also due to human bias. What concerns me more than what is taking place in China is what is happening in Italy right now. 

Italian governments have a long political history of ineptitude and disregard of reality regarding numbers which are staring them in the face, particularly with budgets and a long tradition of corruption and its destructive force on transparency. If Italy continues to spike higher infection numbers and continue to escalate then I believe the E.U is in for trouble. The inaction of Italy and its reliance on the tourism business will make it hard for them to accept shutting down major airports and cities which enjoy the fruits of international visitors year round. 

Also, I must add and circling back to China that it is not known yet if another outbreak may suddenly appear in another zone if someone dealing with this asymmetrical virus is unaware of their affliction. 

Which brings me back to the springboard, worst case scenario I fear is a major outbreak in the E.U including Germany. If we see signs of spikes statistically across Europe the next two weeks it will be devastating economically for the next quarter financially. 

As you say, things will certainly bounce back, they always do, we must look at the long term. Investors need to keep a stiff upper lip and protect themselves as you have done in many regards with Indices, US ten year bonds and some gold. 

The question for me now is what happens the next ten business days across the U.S and Europe and how the world handles this virus. Worst case is pandemic and bad Central Bank formula, which have been in place the past twelve years with cheap money. The desire to keep everything steady may in fact lead to miscalculations which have not been planned for and cause reactions in the markets which cannot be checked this time around. I do not believe we are at a Black Swan point yet, but it does worry me that the E.U politicians and even some U.S politicians seem to have their head in the sand or look like deer stuck in the headlights.

Robert Petrucci 26 Feb 2020

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Shohei Gets Shown the Money: Dodgers sign Ohtani for 700M

Shohei Gets Shown the Money: Dodgers sign Ohtani for 700M

Shohei Ohtani signed a contract yesterday with the Los Angeles Dodgers for 700 million USD over the next ten years. You probably know that already. Here’s the thing, the Dodgers are actually going to make much more money from Ohtani than he will make from them. There are always questions about a player’s health and ability to last the lenght of a long-term contract, but the reasons why this was a good deal for the Dodgers are strong.

Yes, Ohtani does have a track record of getting hurt once in a while. He will likely not be able to pitch during 2024 as his arm heals from a throwing injury from the recently played MLB season. Yet, he will hit, and he will likely do this at a significant level, which could help propel the Dodgers into playoff and championship contention. He is 29 years old and only turns 30 in July of 2024, which signals he has a handful of years ahead with a potential for excellent performances. While playing for the Los Angeles Angels since 2018, Shohei Ohtani has not been able to showcase his talents in the MLB playoffs. That will certainly change when playing for the Dodgers.

Let’s not forget Ohtani’s performance in the 2023 World Baseball Classic. He struck out Angel teammate, Mike Trout, to win the Championship for Japan in an absolutely electric moment in March while defeating team USA. Ohtani has and can produce big under the spotlight. He has consistently lived up to and exceeded expectations during his MLB career. It isn’t often players are compared to Babe Ruth in the same sentence, a comparison that was laughable when any name was mentioned with the famous Yankee (and Red Sox before), discussing Ohtani’s ability to pitch and hit puts him politely into the conversation. Ohtani will have to achieve World Series Championships however to solidify this juxtaposition.

The money being paid to Ohtani may seem obscene to we, the mere mortals of this world, but let’s take a look at some numbers. Let’s consider the additional advertising money the Dodgers will now make being able to market into Japan, and perhaps other nations that love baseball in Asia. Clearly there will be heaps of money made on selling jerseys, not only with Ohtani’s name spelled in English, but Japanese as well. Sponsorships, licenses and merchandising contract costs and values will jump through the roof for companies wanting to be affiliated with the Dodgers.

There is also the worth of the Los Angeles Dodgers baseball team, which likely just added to their price tag if ‘suiters’ want to try and buy the club, which in the spring of 2023 had an estimated value of 4.8 billion USD. Having Ohtani in the midst of Los Angeles will make this number jump substantially. The Dodgers television and advertising rights are massive already, and can grow larger because of the money they will charge during the broadcasts for commercials. The Dodgers reportably have a 8.35 billion USD deal for their regional broadcast rights with Spectrum SportsNet LA – Time Warner Cable already.

Dentsu Inc., the advertising and public relations giant in Japan, signed a six year 275 million USD with Major League Baseball to sell the rights of MLB games into Japan starting in 2024. However, the Dodgers who are already followed in Japan will certainly add to their exposure among MLB baseball fans in the nation who will want to watch Ohtani play. Major League Baseball and Dentsu are probably thrilled that the Japanese star has signed with the Dodgers and the prospect of more international media attention.

Baseball fans that love the Dodgers and for those that hate them, there is also the knowledge that Ohtani has apparently agreed to defer a huge amount of his contract until year ten. This means the Dodgers will be left room via MLB’S Competitive Balance Tax to operate effectively and still have money to spend on other highly prized players. The Dodgers can go after Japanese pitching ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto with additional piles of cash, who will certainly listen now that Ohtani has joined Los Angeles.

Lastly in terms of numbers, the contract with Ohtani is staggering. Yet there are other contracts in sports that are eye opening. Jon Rahm, the golfer, apparently inked an individual deal with LIV Golf last week which will be worth around 500 million USD to play on the highly cash infused ‘Saudi’ tour instead of the PGA. There has certainly been inflation in the world, but the money being tossed around for ‘players’ is gigantic in the NFL, IPL – Indian Premier League Cricket, assorted football (soccer) leagues globally, Formula 1, NBA, LIV Golf, and MLB which make many contracts questionable. But again, Ohtani may prove to be quite a steal for the Dodgers regarding their ability to make money via this contract.

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Yields, Credit Worthiness, Trading and Geo-Political Risks

Yields, Credit Worthiness, Trading and Geo-Political Risks

Traders participating in Forex and equity indices this week may want to consider finding a very quiet room and avoiding the loud conjecture which is certain to be heard. U.S bond yields will remain a focal point the entire week, and Moody’s new negative label regarding U.S credit worthiness issued late on Friday will not help the Federal Reserve and Treasury as the size of U.S debt is called into question once again. Forex markets provided speculators velocity and volatility last Thursday and Friday, and this week’s risk events are certain to cause behavioral sentiment turbulence.

USD/CNY Five Year Chart as of 13th November 2023

Added to the ‘fun’ for speculators this week will be the APEC Summit gyrations which will be held in San Francisco, and includes a scheduled meeting with President Joe Biden and President Xi Jinping this Wednesday. The meeting comes at a critical time as geo-political and economic concerns come from Asia, the Middle East and Eastern Europe.

However, traders should not allow their emotions to grow too nervous, financial institutions actually showed a taste for U.S equity indices last week and the price of gold has declined, while the value of Crude Oil per barrel has also eroded. This shows that even in the midst of carnival like barking from pessimistic naysayers, that investors are still participating in the broad markets and makeing bets on the notion that optimism will continue to show sparks of light.

Monday, 13th of November, U.S Federal Budget Balance – this report is certain to be rather negative if studied closely. However, investors already know this story, and last week’s Moody’s downgrade of U.S credit accountability has already rang alarms. Thus, this report will likely fall on deaf ears today.

Tuesday, 14th of November, E.U Flash GDP – the numbers from the European Union are exected to be negative. However, last week’s slightly better than expected Germany Factory Orders may help the European Gross Domestic Product results limit the capability of a surprisingly bad decline. An expectation of only minus -0.1% is awaited.

Tuesday, 14th of November, U.S Consumer Price Index – the inflation numbers from the States will get the attention of most global investors. The results are sure to affect the USD, Treasury yields and equity markets. A weaker than expected outcome could propel the USD lower. Stronger than estimated statistics could ignite buying of the USD based on the notion the Fed will feel compelled to remain aggressive via its monetary policy rhetoric.

Wednesday, 15th of November, China Industrial Production – while the APEC Summit is highlighted by the media, it is economic data from China which remains important. Data from the nation continues to be lackluster and demand for commodities, the USD/CNY, domestic real estate and conusmer spending are all being watched and questioned by financial analysts. A gain of 4.5% is expected.

GBP/USD Three Month Chart as of 13th of November 2023

Wednesday, 15th of November, U.K CPI, the inflation numbers from Britain will be important and will follow Tuesday’s Average Earnings Index publication. The GBP/USD has found choppy terrain and the results of the combined numbers from the U.K will affect Forex, even if USD centric considerations remain key.

Wednesday, 15th of November, U.S Producers Price Index, Retail Sales, and the Empire State Manufacturing Index – these reports will be issued at roughly the same time and will factor into sentiment created from the U.S CPI data seen the day before. The combination of all these outcomes will play into the broad markets, and the USD within all major currency pairs. Weaker than anticipated numbers would be welcome by USD sellers. However, until the reports are published wagering on the USD will prove volatile and risk management is encouraged.

Thursday, 16th of November, U.S Federal Reserve Officials – at least 4 U.S Federal Reserve members will be speaking at various conferences. They are sure to give their opinions on the Federal Funds Rate outlook and will be asked to comment on the week’s data already published in the U.S regarding inflation and consumer spending.

Friday, 17th of November, U.K Retail Sales – a gain of 0.3% is expected compared to last month’s negative results. Speculators will react to the consumer driven data and the GBP/USD will again come under the influence of risk sentiment regarding outlook. However, traders need to understand these numbers are largely a result of looking backwards and not forwards regarding outcomes.

Friday, 17th of November, U.S Housing Starts and Building Permits – the American housing industry is being closely monitored and the high costs of mortgages is affecting the U.S marketplace. The Building Permits number is expected to be slightly lower than last month’s outcome. Traders should also keep their eyes on the potential of revisions to suddenly emerge from previous reports.