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Preventing WWIII: This is a 1936 Moment for the Middle East

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Preventing WWIII: This is a 1936 Moment for the Middle East

Opinion: The following article is commentary and its views are solely those of the author.

The wonderful historian and public intellectual Niall Ferguson has aptly called the current US-China relationship a “Cold War II” and the current debate in the punditry is if the Israel-Hamas war lead to a WWIII. But what if we are already in WWIII? While Russia and the rest of the world did not expect the war in Ukraine to still be fought nearly three years later, the Russia-Ukraine war is now clearly a part of the fight of the West vs the new Axis – Russia/Iran/China/North Korea. But it was the Hamas attack of Israel on October 7 and the response of the Axis and its allies that have more clearly established the battle lines.

We have Russian and Iranian weaponry vs. American and Israeli weaponry. The Russians and the Iranians are using what we so quaintly call “proxies” for a plausible (un)deniability, sheltering them from retaliation. Iran has its various Shiite militias, with Hezbollah being the strongest and most lethal. Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIF) are the Sunni useful idiots helping the Shiite empire to destroy their Sunni cousins by dying for the cause. The Shiite militias formed and fighting in Iraq and Syria along with the Houthis in Yemen round out Iran’s ability to pretend it is not fighting while creating a genocide of Sunnis in Syria and Iraq and Jews in Israel. On the Russian side we have of course the infamous Wagner Group which in its racist undertaking is taking over and subjugating sub-Saharan Africa in its run to control minerals, gold and diamonds. They are now helping Hezbollah with weaponry and training by providing anti-aircraft weapons. The two groups fought hand in hand saving Bashir Assad, the leader and butcher of Syria, to stay in power so they already have close ties. Wagner is Russia and Russia is Wagner. Hezbollah is Iran and Iran is Hezbollah. The quicker we understand this the better off we will be.

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We don’t have any details on Chinese or North Korean weaponry being used by Hamas or Hezbollah, but that might just be a timing issue. China has already decided not to report Hamas atrocities to its people in its official Chinese language news service and are eliminating Israel from its maps. It only reports Israeli’s response and has taken a clear stance supporting its ally, Iran. Will they learn from their Axis allies and also form proxies in Asia to destabilize countries like the Philippines or Vietnam while being immune to retaliation? They don’t need to conquer or even blockade Taiwan if they can destabilize their neighbors while still selling the West all that it wants to buy and inundate our youth via Tik-Tok propaganda.

Japan has realized what this war is about, and is supporting Israel like it never has. Being totally dependent upon the Mideast for its oil, Japan has never been a close friend of Israel. But they have now condemned the Hamas attack while refusing the criticize Israel’s massive response. The Japanese understand well that an Israeli defeat can lead to Chinese dominance in the Indo-Pacific.

Back to the Mideast – it seems we always go back to the Mideast.

Iranian backed Hamas and PIJ launched a brutal attack on Israel.

The Iranian backed Houthis in Yemen declared war on Israel and launched cruise missiles and drones in their opening attack.

Iranian backed and financed Shiite militias are moving to Syria and Lebanon hoping to open two new fronts against Israel.

Iranian backed and financed Hezbollah is attacking from the north in what, for some reason, we are not yet considering a war.

And Iran itself is feeling safe from attack from Israel or the US/West since “only” its proxies are fighting.

This is the remilitarization of the Rhineland of 1936 and a Western betrayal of Israel by hamstringing the IDF by allowing gasoline into Gaza or by a forced cease fire, will be the Munich, 1938.

Are we in WWIII yet? Not being an expert, I don’t know. But the main link tying the Axis together is Iran. They are the most experienced in exporting terror and supporting anti-Western regimes from the Mideast to Africa to America’s doorstep – Latin America. They support and are supported by the Castroite regimes in Cuba and Venezuela and have made deep inroads in Argentina, Brazil and now even Mexico. They are currently nearly as great a threat to the west as is China and probably a greater threat than Russia. A nuclear Iran would create three nuclear powers that could threaten the West as an Axis or independently. The Obama-Biden Iranian policy has been proven a total disaster and its seems that the Biden team is finally understanding this. But they can, in Margaret Thatcher’s famous warning to the first President Bush, “go wobbly” at any moment.

The only way to prevent a full fledged WWIII is Iranian regime change. This would bring the entire Persian Gulf (and its oil) into the Western sphere of influence as China does not yet have the naval power to challenge the US. Hezbollah would be instantly neutralized reducing the threat of war and denying the anti-Western powers another presence in the Eastern Mediterranean. Although the Syrian butcher, Bashir Assad would still have Russia to back him, it is not clear that Russian power alone could keep him in power. In Latin America, Iranian export of terror would stop instantly.

This does not mean that the US needs to invade Iran in order to defeat it. A majority of the Iranian people are sick of the Islamist regime and sick of paying the price for their being ruled by terrorists. The destruction of Iranian nuclear and missile facilities along with the destruction, by air and cruise missiles, of the main Revolutionary Guard bases will be enough. It is not an easy task -but one within the capabilities of the US Navy and Air Force. It is only the Revolutionary Guards that keep the terrorists in power in Iran – the regular Iranian armed forces can be left alone to decide if they want to help overthrow the regime or stay in their barracks. Once they see that the Guards are weakened it is a good bet they will take the side of the Iranian people and help topple the Islamist-terrorist regime.

Regime change in Iran in 2023 will change the global dynamic just as regime change in Nazi Germany in 1936 would have saved 70 million lives in WWII. A failure to act against the source of evil and to cut off the main link in the current Axis will just kick the can down the road – once again. We have appeased Iran enough and if the West and the US don’t act quickly it will have to act while simultaneously fighting off a Chinese attack in the Indo-Pacific – on its own or with its very own proxies – as well as terrorist attempts coming from Latin America and Russian nuclear blackmail in Europe.

And we haven’t even spoken of the West’s moral obligation to prevent a second holocaust, which will be the very first task of a nuclear Iranian regime.

Disclaimer: the views expressed in this opinion article are solely those of the author, and not necessarily the opinions reflected by angrymetatraders.com or its associated parties.

You can follow Ira Slomowitz via The Angry Demagogue on Substack https://iraslomowitz.substack.com/

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Broader Alliances: Sustaining Economic and Political Power

by with No Comment Featured HighlightsRisk AnalysisRisk Management

Broader Alliances: Sustaining Economic and Political Power

The following article is commentary and its views are solely those of the author.

If the United States decides to abandon its role as the premier global superpower and shall only be a Pacific and Atlantic power, withdrawing as defender of free seas, free trade and freedom in general, its democratic allies will have to start looking elsewhere for broader military alliances. This large group of nations would have to defend their interests against a revanchist China tied to Iran, Russia, North Korea and many of the Latin American countries – possibly including Brazil, and South Africa who have questionable politics and outlooks.

Eastern Mediterranean Alliance: A Strong Sea Power

Here is a speculative, yet reasonable look at the future of the free world. Let’s start with the Eastern Mediterranean where the two major powers are Israel and Turkey. One cannot deny that both these countries outclass all others regarding military might in the region. Israel’s air force is second to none and its navy is becoming a strategic necessity as it needs to defend its natural gas fields miles offshore. It now has six submarines that are capable of projecting power anywhere in the Mediterranean and even into the Indian Ocean and Persian Gulf. Turkey is currently a NATO member, but it is not clear that this will outlast the first half of the 21st century.

There is currently an informal alliance among Israel, Greece and Cyprus (both NATO countries) via joint military exercises and intelligence sharing. The Israeli navy and air force train regularly with Greece and its special forces train in the Cyprian mountains with its army. It would be in all three countries interests to formalize a treaty – if not of mutual defense, at least of mutual aid during times of war. All three of these countries are democracies and all three have mutual economic interests.

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A formalization of this alliance makes sense now and if there is a NATO collapse it turns into a necessity for Greece and Cyprus. Adding Egypt (although it would be the only non-democracy) to this group would only strengthen the alliance and keep Turkey at bay. A post-Erdogan Turkey that is comfortable with its Islamic character and its modern society could even join this grouping with Israel as a potential peacemaker between the historic Greek-Turkish rivalry.

This alliance without Turkey is a powerful force in the eastern Mediterranean, and this alliance with Turkey could neutralize a nuclear Iran. A Post-Hezbollah Lebanon which is in the interests of all of these alliance members (including Turkey and Egypt), could become a reality and another member.

A New Alignment: The United Border Nations

What about Eastern and Central Europe? Poland is rapidly becoming the major non-nuclear European military power. Within the next few years it will outshine Germany and the U.K and rival France. It is quite clear, nuclear weapons aside, Poland would probably defeat Russia in a number of weeks, if not days if a conflict were to ignite.

Whether the Russian-Ukrainian war ends in a Russian defeat or in some sort of face saving armistice, Russia will not lose its aggressive nature or nuclear capabilities and it will inevitably become aligned more closely with China and Iran because of its current political nature.

The important new alignment will be categorization of ‘countries bordering Russia’. A new alliance of Poland, Finland, Sweden, Norway and the Baltic states – Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia together would have the land, sea and air power necessary to deter and defeat, if necessary, any Russian imperialist expansion. Even with closer ties to China it would be difficult to imagine that, over the next 50 years, Russia would be a threat to this alliance. Adding Ukraine to this grouping would make a powerful force. Its joint population of over 100 million people, while not quite Russia’s 150 million – would be a formidable adversary, especially as the technological skills of these countries is first world and continuing to improve. Adding the other former Warsaw Pact countries like Czech, Slovakia, Romania, Moldova and Bulgaria can only increase its potency.

Unlike the Eastern Mediterranean alliance mentioned above, this would have to be based on a mutual defense treaty in order to properly deter any Russian-Chinese-Iranian attack. Linking up, informally with the ‘new’ Eastern Mediterranean Alliance would create a powerful grouping of free countries against any attempt by authoritarian adversaries. Adding an economic aspect to these border nations and an alliance with the Eastern Med group with free trade zones would create a strong challenge to any attempted Chinese hegemony.

Asian Border Nations Group: Potential Look Ahead at Potential

If we were to unite the Eastern Mediterranean and Border Alliances to an admittedly non-democratic Asian ‘stans nations, including Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan with a joint population of around 80 million, we are beginning to see the creation of a multi-cultural alliance that extends from the Arctic Ocean through Central Europe, Northern Africa and into Asia.

The Crucial Partner in Order to Balance Power: India

Which leads us to the Indian Ocean; a dominant India can help control the sea lanes from the Persian Gulf to the Bay of Bengal and down to Australia. An Indian-Australian alliance, along with Israel would create a democratic economic and military force that would keep China and Iran from dominating the region. This would require an Indian navy that is not only large, but effective also because it would hold a main responsibility for patrolling the seas from the Persian Gulf up to Australia strongholds.

As India also reaches its potential as a global manufacturing giant, it will be a force to be reckoned with. Including into this potent mix of nations, is the possibility of adding authoritarian countries like Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf states; along with Thailand, Myanmar, Malaysia and Indonesia who have strong ‘western’ economic interests and would create a formidable bulwark against China’s imperialist Belt and Road project.

Without the need to project naval power worldwide the Unites States could use it massive naval, air and ground forces to take better control of the Pacific Ocean along with Japan, South Korea and Australia.

If we add countries like the Philippines and Vietnam, then China would be deterred from further aggression. The only other region that would fall under American responsibility would be the Atlantic Ocean – the shipping lanes to Europe, West Africa and the Mediterranean. Along with the UK and France there would be no challenger to the control of the Atlantic. This could also lead to a revival of the old Monroe Doctrine and maybe free South America from the destructive influences of Iran, China and Russia.

The Global Economy and Free Trade Zones with a Stable USD as Reserve Currency

What does all this mean for the global economy? The free world along with its less than free allies who fear China, Russia and Iran could still maintain a U.S dollar based world. Free trade zones amongst and between the various alliances along with a revival of manufacturing led by a technology revolution using AI, quantum computing, renewable energy and space exploration could lead to a global resurgence of free countries that could stop the authoritarian appetites of Russia, China and Iran in its tracks. This can only happen with a stable reserve currency the ‘West’ can rely upon which is the USD.

Potentially a U.S freed from being the sole defender of freedom in the world, would help get America’s fiscal house in order and allow it to focus on being a dominant economic power. Is there a future for the ‘free world’ without a United States that projects power globally? Currently, a U.S withdrawal from global military assertion would certainly cause the end of freedom (economic and political) in the world for many nations. However, with the new alliances described above and a fiscally responsible United States, freedom could yet make a comeback.

Disclaimer: the views expressed in this article are solely those of the author, and not necessarily the opinions reflected by angrymetatraders.com or its associated parties.