Posts tagged: Eisenkot

The Bibi camp has at least had success with their cliché while the anti-Bibi camp seems to think what didn’t work the previous dozen times will certainly work this time.

We would love to say this is left vs right, but since almost no one has stated what their policies will be that is difficult to do. The Likud is trying to scare us into voting for them because everyone else is “pro-Palestine” while the opposition candidates want change for the sake of change.

Gadi Eisenkot, the alleged leading opposition candidate has two main campaign billboards that tell us nothing and give us no reason to vote for him. The first is “This time – Eisenkot”, emphasizing that the last time it was Gantz, the time before that Lapid and the time before that Herzog, etc, etc. Why, “this time – Eisenkot” we are not told. The other big billboard is “Eisenkot – for change”. Now the opposition has emphasized one thing – we are not them and we need to change. The problem is that they have not said what they want to change besides personalities.

Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Leiberman, the two other pretenders to the throne on the opposition are, in their past votes at least, more right wing than the Likud. Bennett was an up and coming challenger to Netanyahu from the right until he made the political error of joining the “anyone but Bibi” camp. Lieberman even resigned as Defense Minister years ago after his scraps with Netanyahu as well as his fight with then IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot (yes, the current challenger) accusing him of being the representative of “Peace Now”.

On the government side, Netanyahu is doubling down on his opposition, not to the left but to a right of center party that has promised to support him in the coming Knesset – that is the party called “Amcha Yisrael” (your people, Israel) led by ex-brigadier general Ofer Winter). His number two is an Israeli Christian Arab, Yousef Haddad who is one of the most successful defenders of Israel in the foreign press. Ostensibly, the reason Netanyahu (and his poodle, Smotrich) are giving for their fierce campaign against him is that if he does not pass the minimum amount of votes needed (around 3.25% or 4 seats) then these right wing votes will have gone to waste. However, polls are split – giving Winter anywhere from 3-6 seats so logic would tell you that Netanyahu would encourage those last few to vote for him and get him an extra 4 or more seats in the Knesset.

But those who claim the above don’t really understand Netanyahu the politician (as opposed to Netanyahu the statesman). Netanyahu has three goals in this election and the one you would think is most important is not. A clear victory is his goal, but only on the condition that the other two goals are met. The first of these is that there not be anyone else on the right who is Prime Minister material and the second is that he will be able to continue with the ultra-orthodox Haredi parties and give them what they want regarding the draft (with minor changes). As for the first of these two, Netanyahu has managed to eliminate all those who could replace him as PM on the right and they include, Nir Barkat, Yuli Edelstein, Ayelet Shaked, Gilad Erdan and has sent Bennett to the opposition. Now there are two newcomers. Ofer Winter and Amir Avivi. The latter is the founder of the Israel Defense and Security Forum (IDSF or Bitchonistim in Hebrew) and he was promised a top spot in the Likud Knesset list. He is knowledgeable, serious and has connections abroad making him a possible successor to Netanyahu. Instead of being given a place on the Likud list though, he was promised to be a minister in the next government. Fair enough until you realize that only Members of the Knesset can become Prime Minister, and Netanyahu always fears that the Likud itself will get rid of him and replace him with someone else.

Winter is new to politics, but has been popular on the right since he was a colonel leading his brigade (Givati) in the Tzuk Eitan (Gaza) war in 2014. He then became persona-non-grata on the left for two reasons – he was tactically superior to and more aggressive than the other brigade commanders, and when he spoke to his troops before they went into Gaza in 2014 he mentioned the “God of Israel”. While generals and other commanders have mentioned God to their soldiers for 3,000 years or more, it was taboo in the Israeli general staff which doubles as the country’s defender of progressive values. So Winter is a clear possible successor to Netanyahu (not now – but after a few years of political experience) and Netanyahu is convinced that he will lead for foreseeable future.

It seems that Netanyahu does not fear Eisenkot, Lieberman and Bennet per se, and as none of these three have gone beyond slogans and cliché there is really not much to argue against besides the Eisenkot promise that he will form a minority government with outside support of the Arab parties. That has become the center of the Netanyahu campaign and it is a strong argument which is why the other two opposition party leaders with PM ambitions – Avigdor Lieberman and Naftali Bennett have promised not to support that effort.

On the far left and far right we have opposite sides of the same coin. Itamar Ben-Gvir, who, after four years as head of the police and failing to stop crime stemming from Arab cities and villages is still campaigning to stop crime stemming from Arab cities and villages. Failure does not seem to bother voters as long as he “says the right thing”. The Ben-Gvir of the left, Yair Golan seems to be adopting the global woke left’s agenda by threatening to censor right wing news sites and stations while not having met an anti-Jewish cause he does not support. He runs, as the woke always do as the last defender of “our democracy”. Without endorsing anyone, we will say that a government with neither of these two would be a welcome one.

When all the votes are cast and the quest for power begins in earnest, we will know who is really controlling the candidates. Bennett seems to be more independent than his rivals as he does not come from the security establishment and is independently wealthy. The fear about Eisenkot is that he is a puppet controlled by the Israeli security establishment that has not given up its ideas of appeasement as the way to the “good life” (See anything by Tamir Heyman of the INSS). Leiberman on the other hand has been rumored to be under the thumb of the prosecution – explaining how this man who was considered as right wing as Ben-Gvir is so virulently anti-Netanyahu.

So, what will be?

Only fools can predict an Israeli election. Since we qualify, we will say that no one will know who will be the next prime minister until 4-8 weeks after the election due to all the horse trading and egos. There is no consensus in the opposition as to who is “the one” – in spite of the security establishments efforts to crown Eisenkot so, short of a rout by Eisenkot, the others will not easily give in.

When all is said and done, we feel that Winter and the other new party headed by Yoaz Hendel, a right of center ex-academic and politician who is in the anti-Bibi camp but not a fan of the left at all, will both get in, giving 8-10 seats to those who are against any appeasement of the enemy, who support a more equal draft and who were not involved in October 7 at all. Amit Segel wrote last week that this might be the last election for this generation of “leaders”. If both get in – that might be beginning of the end for the septuagenarians and octogenarians.

Therefore, we predict that after many weeks of back and forth, (55 year old) Naftali Bennett will be the next Prime Minister of Israel.