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Thin Holiday Markets Await FX Speculators

by with No Comment Behavioral SentimentCommoditiesFeatured Highlights

Thin Holiday Markets Await FX Speculators

Traders who want to pursue speculative positions this week need to understand that market conditions will be extremely thin. While the USD has certainly taken on a ‘softer’ dimension and financial institutions are demonstrating solid risk appetite, this week’s trading could produce lackluster choppy conditions.

Economic data will be light this week due to the ongoing Christmas celebrations, and the New Year’s holiday which will come next Monday. Forex markets can produce trading opportunities in the near-term for folks who want to wager on changes of direction, but some of the trajectories may be dubious and reversals could loom. Entry orders are urged for participants because spreads between bids and asks will likely be wide.

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Gold Three Month Chart as of 26th December 2023

Gold remains within its higher price boundaries as the USD produces weakness, but betting on the precious metal this week could also be dangerous. Gold has certainly been trending upwards, but short-term speculative positions by large players could make the commodity agitated the next handful of days if they try to take advantage of light volumes. Day traders without significant bankrolls should be careful.

While economic data will be released, it is doubtful how much impact the reports will have on the broad markets. Active traders should monitor the coming statistics, but they should stay ‘more’ alert for possible outside influences which could shake confidence and shadow the rather optimistic behavioral sentiment which is currently being demonstrated.

News via international shipping should be given attention as the Houthis and Iran rattle their swords. While experienced traders will not be flustered by noise, the potential for escalating violence should be given attention.

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USD/JPY Three Month Chart as of 26th December 2023

Tuesday, 26th of December, Japan Core CPI via the BoJ – inflation data from Japan has been published today and the Consumer Price Index came in below expectations. The USD/JPY remains on a downwards trajectory and should be given consideration.

Wednesday, 27th of December, U.S Richmond Manufacturing Index – this report being ‘highlighted’ shows the minimal amount of data being published this week. A decline versus the previous month’s negative outcome is expected. The likelihood that significant trading will be ignited via the results of this publication is almost nil.

Thursday, 28th of December, U.S Pending Home Sales – the data is expected to show a gain of 1.1%. However, it is next month’s report which will get more attention, this as investors look to see if the Fed’s soft monetary policy stance which was heard in mid-December, helps boost the housing market in the coming weeks. This immediate report however is likely to be met with a rather quiet reaction.

Friday, 29th of December, U.K Nationwide Home Price Index – this economic report like yesterday’s U.S housing numbers is destined to have little influence on short-term trading results. The GBP/USD will not be affected by this report in any great manner.

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Leverage and the Holidays Often Leads to Costly Volatility

by with No Comment Behavioral SentimentCommoditiesFeatured Highlights

Leverage and the Holidays Often Leads to Costly Volatility

This may seem like an unfriendly reminder for this time of year, but holiday trading can lead to dangerous storms for traders. Keeping a realistic viewpoint regarding your ambitions during Christmas and New Year’s is important.

Most day traders cannot afford to have an outlook that is beyond the short and near-term. This is an ugly fact many speculators with less than deep pockets have to acknowledge if they are new to speculating. While large traders and financial institutions can maintain mid and long-term outlooks, day traders who do not have the funds to keep overnight positions need to operate in an entirely different fashion.

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Trends via technical charts and fundamentals are crucial for all traders. Behavioral sentiment is a key ingredient too for all participants chasing assets. However, day traders also need to understand unique risk management limitations. The use of leverage is a vital dynamic, and can cause devastation fast when too much money has been wagered. The use of leverage by day traders effectively raises the probability that a trade will lose money.

Incremental changes in value to a Forex pair, commodity and equity share being traded on a brokers platform by a speculator using ‘borrowed’ money via an account that allows for margin often leads to quick outcomes that fail. Many brokers offer traders ‘polite’ leverage ranging from 10% to 100% in extra funds, this while enticing the speculator to the potential of profiting in a quicker and more robust manner. It should also be noted that when a broker is offering vast amounts of leverage, they are knowingly increasing a traders likelihood of losing. The use of leverage beyond 10% leads to plenty of expensive mistakes.

Unfortunately, the simple truth is if you can make fast money trading, you can lose fast money while trading. The use of the word speculating is simply a gentle way of not using the word ‘gambling’.

Traders tempted to pursue wagers during the next couple of weeks should remember a lack of normal volumes make many asset classes more volatile, meaning the use of leverage by speculators often leads to dangerous gyrations within their accounts.

Risk appetite has taken on a optimistic tone globally because of the upside U.S equity markets have been producing, while U.S Treasury yields are decreasing, but dangers still lurk. Day traders need to remain realistic regarding their pursuit of quick hitting trades during the holiday season, and make sure they use solid tactics while pursuing their outlooks. The trend may appear to be your friend, but short-term reversals in the wrong direction can cost money.

No one wishes for bad things, but speculators should also note that if risk adverse events occur during the holidays, that ‘negative news’ can often become amplified this time of year and cause more volatility. Speculative positions in Forex, Crude Oil and gold can produce rather wild results, and thin trading volumes can add to the swift changes in values.

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Forex Calm After the Storm? Volatility and Coming Holidays

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

Forex Calm After the Storm? Volatility and Coming Holidays

The weakness of the USD was anticipated last week, this as the Federal Reserve essentially admitted its aggressive interest rate hikes policy has come to an end. While Fed Chairman Jerome Powell tried to sound neutral, most financial institutions reacted to the FOMC Statement and the Fed’s Press Conference last Wednesday with a rather demonstrative amount of USD selling, largely showing they were prepared to react.

The EUR, GBP and JPY all gained, and many other currencies added value against the greenback too. Gold flourished upwards and even WTI Crude Oil came off its lows. However, after producing strong gains late Wednesday and into Thursday, gold and major Forex pairs did reverse slightly lower on Friday as the USD gained some footing.

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Gold Five Day Chart as of 17th December 2023

Risk appetite likely has enough positive behavioral sentiment influence to continue its desire for dynamic buying on U.S indices. The Dow Jones Industrials will start Monday at record heights, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are approaching one year highs.

Yes, potential headwinds can develop, so day traders should not bet blindly on bullish gyrations to mount without reversals being expected too. As the GBP and EUR gave back some of their gains on Friday, financial institutions may have been reacting to the notion price velocity higher had been too robust in the near-term. Speculators received another reminder that one way trends tend to meet with reversals that can still cause harm.

Risk adverse traders who have their eyes on global affairs should monitor the situation in the Red and Arabian Seas. Houthi extremists continue to fire at international ships sailing in the areas, and this may generate a reaction at some point from allied navies which are supposed to protect vessels and commerce. If the U.S Navy reacts to the Houthis in a strong manner this could deliver a cold short-term shiver into markets.

Speculators also need to understand this is the last ‘full’ week of trading before the Christmas and New Year holidays, which can cause a massive decline in volumes. This Thursday’s trading will begin to decrease from norms, and Friday’s price action will likely be affected by offices around the world starting to shutter as employees disappear for extended vacations. Day traders who want to participate in Forex, commodities, and equities via CFDs should be prepared for the emergence of quiet markets the end of this week with occasional volatility disrupting technical charts.

However, this Monday and Tuesday will pose questions regarding possible reactions to the weaker USD which has emerged, and U.S equity indices showing signs of speculative zeal. U.S Treasury yields continued to trend lower last week, and U.S bonds should be watched early to see if market participants continue their optimistic paces, or show signs of becoming more passive as the holidays approach. Traders with strong convictions regarding directions may feel inclined to remain active throughout this week and cannot be blamed, but some caution should be practiced.

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EUR/USD Five Day Chart as of 17th December 2023

Monday, 18th of December, Germany ifo Business Climate – the reading is expected to show a slight improvement over the last month. EUR/USD traders may believe they should react to the results from this report, but the EUR is likely to stay within a USD centric mode driven by existing outlooks. The ability of the EUR/USD to hit the 1.10000 level late last week confirmed positive mid-term bullish outlook. The reversal lower on Friday may ignite speculative buying positions early this week, but day-traders may want to be conservative.

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USD/JPY One Month Chart as of 17th December 2023

Tuesday, 19th of December, Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Statement and Press Conference – the BoJ is not expected to raise their interest rates quite yet. However the end of the BoJ’s negative monetary policy may be coming to an end in 2024. The BoJ bet on the notion that inflation would come down eventually, even it maintained a negative interest rate policy – this seems to have been proven correct. The USD/JPY has reacted the past month with a rather incremental decline. Perhaps Japanese financial institutions have been positioning for a stronger JPY over the mid-term. The USD/JPY trajectory lower remains intriguing for speculators.

Wednesday, 20th of December, U.K Consumer Price Index – the BoE sounded more dovish than many folks expected they would this past Thursday. Inflation numbers coming this week should be watched. The British economy remains lackluster, but sounds about ‘weaker’ inflation have been heard. The data from the CPI is expected to be slightly lower than the previous month. The GBP/USD could react to this report. The British Pound has delivered upwards momentum since late October. Traders should be careful regarding potential short-term reactions from the GBP/USD, and understand Forex volumes may start to decrease on Thursday and Friday which could affect results.

Thursday, 21st of December, U.S Final Gross Domestic Product – growth in the U.S has been better than most anticipated. While many analysts are still predicting a slowdown, the GDP number is expected to show a 5.2% gain. The inflation report via the GDP Price Index is anticipated to be 3.6%. While the broad markets typically would react to these statistics in a strong fashion, trading might be somewhat muted as financial institutions begin to focus more on the coming holidays.

Friday, 22nd of December, Canada GDP – a slight gain of 0.2% is expected regarding the growth statistics. Markets will be quiet and while the USD/CAD could see a momentary increase in trading, behavioral sentiment from earlier this week will likely have had a bigger effect.

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Dynamic Forex Conditions Expected via Inflation Data and Fed

by with No Comment Behavioral SentimentEconomic CalendarFeatured Highlights

Dynamic Forex Conditions Expected via Inflation Data and Fed

Day traders may have experienced difficult results the past few days as Forex produced choppy conditions. The USD proved rather strong on occassion and likely whipsawed technical speculators, particularly if they were looking for sustained trends to emerge with bearish perspectives regarding the USD. The EUR, GBP and JPY have demonstrated rather turbulent values. More challenging days are likely ahead for speculators, this as inflation reports from the U.S and the Federal Reserve are on the horizon.

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EUR/USD Five Day Chart as of 11th December 2023

Curious economic data was published at the end of last week, this as the broad markets turned in a rather convulsive five days of results via financial assets. U.S jobs numbers came in slightly higher than expected for the Non-Farm Employment Change figures and the Average Hourly Earnings. Following the employment data, the Preliminary University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment reading came in much stronger than anticipated, and its inflation data found that people are less fearful of inflation looking forward in the States.

On Saturday, China released its CPI and PPI statistics and they continued to show a downwards path. China has taken on a rather sticky deflationary track and this signals that consumers and producers in the nation remain burdened by harsh economic considerations.

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Gold One Month Chart as of 11th December 2023

U.S equity indices were rather jerky, but finished last week’s trading higher than they started. U.S Treasury yields finished the week higher, except for the 30 Year Bond which came in with a result slightly below its starting point for the five day period. Gold has seen its price come down from highs and this may be interpreted as a reaction to the stronger USD. The precious metal may be in for volatile days ahead.

The risk appetite flame has apparently been turned lower, but is still simmering and this is due to financial instiutions waiting to see if the U.S Federal Reserve delivers a neutral monetary policy rhetoric this coming Wednesday. The USD which had been getting weaker across the board for a handful of weeks, suddenly seemed to hit ‘support’ and reversed higher as questions regarding ‘fair market value’ may have been considered. Larger players in Forex are likely waiting for their outlooks to be confirmed via the Federal Reserve or dampened considerably. The higher Average Hourly Earnings data on last Friday was a reminder inflation data continues to be stubborn, even if many analysts believe the Fed’s higher interest rates will begin to have an impact in 2024 and slow the U.S economy.

Monday, 11th of December, U.S Ten Year Bond Auction – the results of the auction will be studied by financial institutions, particularly as investors debate the necessity for interest rates to be kept high, against those who are arguing for the need to cut the Federal Funds rate by late spring 2024.

Tuesday, 12th of December, U.S Core Consumer Price Index – the inflation numbers will be critical for behavioral sentiment and certainly affect the attitude of financial houses and their trading positions before the Fed steps into the limelight on Wednesday. The Core CPI numbers are expected to be slightly higher compared to last month’s outcome. Perhaps last Friday’s higher U.S earnings data will pave the way for a calm reaction if the CPI is strong. Forex markets will respond to this report and day traders should be braced for price ranges and spreads to get wider.

Wednesday, 13th of December, U.S Producer Price Index – the PPI numbers will be released early in the States, five and a half hours before the Fed’s Federal Funds Rate publication. Traders need to be ready for volatility before the Producer Price Index figures are reported. The inflation numbers are expected to be higher than the previous month’s outcome.

Wednesday, 13th of December, U.S Federal Reserve – the last interaction of the year for the U.S central bank and financial institutions will be an important affair. The Fed’s Federal Fund Rate, FOMC Statement and Press Conference will get full attention. The Fed is expected to hold interest rates in place, the question is what ‘vocabulary’ the central bank will use as it lays the groundwork for its 2024 outlook. While talk of a more neutral Fed, one that isn’t as aggressive has been envisioned, financial institutions want to see a ‘softer’ tone become the reality.

Depending on how the U.S Federal Reserve talks about inflation and its monetary policy insights for the next few months to come via this FOMC Statement, the USD will take center-stage and Forex conditions may become rather violent as Wednesday concludes. Day traders are advised to be very careful if they plan on trying to surf the waves caused by the Fed’s storms which will certainly be stirred.

Thursday, 14th of December, E.U European Central Bank – the ECB will release its Main Refinancing Rate, Monetary Policy Statement and conduct its Press Conference. The last ECB event proved to be rather mundane. While some talking heads may try to make this coming event into must see television, many financial institutions likely expect the European Central Bank to say, “the E.U economies remain lackluster, there are glimmers of growth in some spheres, but recessionary problems are still evident”, this while also mentioning inflation is observed to still be too strong, but showing signs of erosion. In other words, the EUR/USD is likely to remain USD centric according to existing behavioral sentiment that has been triggered earlier.

Friday, 15th of December, China, Industrial Production – the report is anticipated to show a better outcome than last month’s figure. China skeptics will examine these reports carfully, as well investors with ‘skin in the game’ in the nation.

Friday, 15th of December, E.U, U.K and U.S Manufacturing and Services PMI – these reports will be watched from the European Union nations, the United Kingdom and U.S, but the results will be filtered into existing sentiment which has been generated on Wednesday and Thursday from the Fed and ECB. Behavioral sentiment in Forex will likely look at the PMI results with vague interest levels. Traders should note that as the weekend approaches, there will be only one full week of trading left before the holiday season gets underway and financial markets begin to experience thin volumes.

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FOMO Potential Could Fuel FX and Equities with Calm Winds

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

FOMO Potential Could Fuel FX and Equities with Calm Winds

Traders should not run towards their trading screens as the week begins, steady attitudes and risk taking tactics will be needed. Yet, there may be reasons to get excited. The return of full market volume as U.S financial institutions open and employees get back in their offices after the long holiday weekend needs to be monitored. The term ‘FOMO’ – fear of missing out – may be heard this week if U.S equity indices continue to shine, Forex demonstrates additional USD weakness and U.S Treasury yields decline further. There will be a whirlwind of economic data and opportunities for ‘official’ rhetoric in the days ahead.

Day traders should ask questions about the results which were seen technically via their charts last week, assets all struggled to find momentum last Thursday and Friday. And earlier in the week many Forex pairs produced choppy results. But here’s the thing, behavioral sentiment was rather muted as large speculators and financial institutions understood that trading volumes would be light – this caused strong bursts and sudden reversals early – but by the end of the week rather calm waters.

Many trading houses could increase their speculative positions this week based on their outlooks. Financial institutions clearly have believed the USD had been overbought and the ability of the GBP, EUR and JPY to gain in the past two weeks are possible signs large ‘players’ remain positioned for further USD weakness.

Equity markets have done well in November, but the major indices including the Dow 30, S&P 500 and the NASDAQ Composite all started to garner strength in the last week of October. Mid-term highs are being achieved in U.S indices. The parade of buyers may not be done quite yet.

Economic data results are vital for day traders to understand because they provide insights into the thinking of financial institutions regarding their outlooks. It is not the trading of small speculators that moves markets, it is the power of large cash positions which drives results. Questions regarding where the cash is going and the allotments financial institutions are pursuing is a key to understanding how the markets are going to react. This information is not readily available for day traders, instead smaller speculators need to try to comprehend outlooks regarding positioning and timeframes of larger players.

Part of the FOMO factor could develop as financial institutions begin to question how much money they will hold in money market accounts for their clients. While the practices of large investors are always comforted by the notion they are making guaranteed returns, the pursuit of better results and the desire for risk appetite does drive behavioral sentiment when bullish markets are being exhibited.

This week will be intriguing as full volumes return to the marketplace today and tomorrow. From today until the 13th of December FOMC Statement from the U.S Federal Reserve, results in the financial markets could be speculative. Financial markets are starting to signal that optimism is creeping back into the mindsets of large investors who may believe mid-term economic scenarios have improved.

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EUR/USD Six Month Chart as of 27th November 2023

Monday, 27th of November, E.U. ECB President Lagarde – the European Central Bank leader will deliver thoughts regarding monetary policy to the European Parliament. While the E.U still is sufferning from recessionary numbers, economic data last week came in slightly better than estimated. However, the EUR/USD remains in a USD centric mode and this will continue this week.

Tuesday, 28th of November, U.S Consumer Confidence via the Conference Board, the numbers are expected to be slightly weaker than last month’s outcome. U.S economic data has been showing signs of being weaker than expected, last week’s Core Durable Goods Orders report followed this trend.

While this may be read as bad news by some people, day traders should note – particularly Forex speculators – that slightly weaker U.S economic data currently is music to the ears of many financial institutions because they believe the Federal Reserve will have to shift their rhetoric from aggressive to neutral.

Tuesday, U.S Federal Reserve Officials – a slew of FOMC members will be speaking at various events during the day. The Fed likes to give clues to the financial markets regarding their outlooks and perceptions regarding interest rates. The Federal Reserve has certainly paused their interest rate hikes.

The question now is if the U.S central bank will start to say while they remain diligent regarding inflation, that they now see signs of a ‘soft landing’ emerging within the U.S economy. If the Fed speakers begin to sound not only neutral, but offer hints of becoming potentially dovish by the spring of 2024 regarding monetary policy, this could spur USD selling.

Wednesday, 29th of November, Germany Preliminary Consumer Price Index – the inflation results are expected to be slightly weaker than last month’s outcome. German economic data has been recessionary, financial institutions know this, what large traders would like to see is stable results that are not wildly surprising.

Wednesday, 29th of November, U.S Preliminary Gross Domestic Product – the growth numbers are expected to show a slight increase. Equity markets, Forex and commodity markets will react to these results. The U.S economy has been surprisingly strong regarding growth. A slight slowdown regarding the GDP numbers would not be the worse thing, if growth numbers did come in below the estimate this could fuel additional USD weakness.

But traders should not get overly ambitious and bet against the GDP numbers. If the expected outcome of 5.0% is delivered, equity markets could use this as additional fuel. The number is sure to be a talking point, but unless their is a massive divergence it may simply be a way to create noise for ‘talking heads’, when in fact behavioral sentiment regarding risk appetite remains optimistic.

Thursday, 30th of November, China Manufacturing PMI – the result is forecast to show a slight improvement. China economic numbers remain a concern, particularly from the real estate sector which is suffering and is causing cascading troubles on other sectors within the nation. Global demand for products, as an example from European countries, that are suffering recessionay pressures also is slowing China’s manufacturing. A slight improvement would be welcomed by global investors participating in China financial assets.

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WTI Crude Oil Six Month Chart as of 27th November 2023

Thursday, 30th of November, OPEC and JMMC Conference – the oil producers will certainly make their policies known and energy markets will react to the news and rumors. Commodity traders should note that WTI Crude Oil, Brent, Natural Gas and Unleaded Gasoline markets have been under price pressure and important mid-term cash support levels are in sight.

Thursday, 30th of November, U.S Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Index – this inflation reading is important and should be watched. The result is expected to be weaker than the previous month. If the outcome matches the anticipated reading of 0.2% or less, this could spur additional USD weakness. The Core PCE Index is an important reading for the U.S Federal Reserve regarding its inflation insights.

Friday, 1st of December, U.S Fed Chairman Jerome Powell – the Fed leader will be speaking at a college event in Atlanta. Traders should remember that about ten days before the Fed’s pause in November regarding its FOMC Statement, Powell delivered a large hint regarding monetary policy. The Fed Chairman’s comments will come late on Friday and could cause a reaction early next week if Powell’s remarks fuel more Forex speculation.

Additional note – the U.S jobs numbers will not be released this Friday, the Non-Farm Employment Change and Average Hourly Earnings results will be published on the 8th of December.

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Feast for the 24th of November

by with No Comment AMT MarketsEquitiesFeatured Highlights

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Feast for the 24th of November

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10. Book: A Thanksgiving Diet – Life as a Glutton by T.M.F Resuscitate.

9. Music: Frank Sinatra singing Somethin’ Stupid.

8. Global Commerce: London Metal Exchange and Baltic Exchange Dry Index prices are higher since September lows.

7. Post Holiday Warning: Trading volumes will be light today, day traders should expect quiet markets and sudden bursts of volatility. Early reactions next week may result in reversals due to perceived lack of price equilibriums having occured via today’s results, this as U.S financial institutions return in full to their offices Monday and Tuesday.

6. Election Surprises: Argentina and the Netherlands point to seismic changes in voting sentiment. India, South Africa and the U.S have major elections coming in 2024.

5. Crytocurrencies: Binance legal problems in the U.S casting shadows of doubt, but BNB/USD has been somewhat stable. Bitcoin – yes, a digital asset – is above 37,000.00 USD as of this writing.

4. Gold: Price of the precious metal remains slightly below 2000.00 USD level.

3. Energy Prices: WTI Crude Oil, Brent, Natural Gas and Gasoline remain within sight of one year lows, but intriguing support levels for speculators with long-term outlooks.

2. U.S Equity Indices: Stocks will trade in shortened sessions today. The major indices are within sight of one year highs. Next week could see positive momentum sustained.

1. Forex: USD within an intriguing near-term price range. GBP, JPY and NZD are some of the major currencies showing signs of potential strength versus the ‘greenback’ as outlooks seemingly shift.

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Risks Ahead and Turkey as the USD Gets Speculative Attention

by with No Comment AMT MarketsAssetsFeatured Highlights

Risks Ahead and Turkey as the USD Gets Speculative Attention

The USD stumbled last week as inflation numbers via the Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index both came in slightly below expectations. Yes, inflation is still dangerous in the U.S, but an erosion of momentum has certainly been hoped for by financial institutions, and they clearly took advantage of the CPI and PPI reports and helped a selloff of the USD build momentum.

The Federal Reserve is now highly anticipated to begin lowering the noise of its aggressive rhetoric, and actually start to sound more neutral when December’s FOMC Statement is delivered. Yes, this is speculative and things can change, but financial institutions like speculators position their assets based on outlooks.

Equity markets in the U.S also showed that there is growing risk appetite which wants to be part of the moves higher in the major indices. The NASDAQ 100, the Dow Industrials 30 and S&P 500 have all sustained upwards movement and are at three month highs with additional upwards targets clearly in sight. However, before day traders try to hop onto the higher trajectory they should remember the speculative timeframes of institutional investors are different than their own. Fear of missing out could feed into buying momentum, but caution is needed.

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GBP/USD Six Month Chart as of 20th November 2023

The GBP and JPY look to be intriguing opportunities for traders with a capacity to hold positions over the mid-term. Having struggled since July of this year, financial institutions are likely looking at these two currencies as having been oversold. Many other major currencies are all rather speculatively attractive at this time, but again, day traders should not wager blindly and keep realistic targets for their short-term wagers.

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USD/JPY Six Month Chart as of 20th November 2023

The U.S will celebrate its Thanksgiving holiday this Thursday. Volumes across the broad markets will begin to drop significantly on late Wednesday, and full trading will not return until Monday or Tuesday of next week until the U.S turkey meals have been digested. Meaning that while risk appetite has certainly begun to creep in the broad markets again, forecasts this week should be treated carefully. Day traders should watch momentum today and tomorrow, if the USD remains weak going into Wednesday, this could signal further weakness in the USD is anticipated. Yet, the dangers of near-terrm reversals exists and speculators should not get over confident.

U.S Treasury yields remain near their five day lows. The price of gold is range trading below its highs made late last week, this as the USD has shown weakness and risk adverse global concerns have also become more calm. Trading results later this week should be viewed suspiciously, price velocity when unbalanced positions are executed often leads to spikes during the Thanksgiving holiday, like the Christmas holiday which will follow in a little more than a month.

Monday, 20th of November, Germany PPI – the inflation data has already been published and the Producer Price Index came in at minus -0.1%, which was below the estimate. Global economic data the remaider of today will be rather light, and behavioral sentiment being generated from U.S markets should be watched.

Tuesday, 21st of November, U.S FOMC Meeting Minutes – this report which will be published late on Tuesday for many global traders, may provide evidence to previous thoughts regarding the outlook for the U.S economy regarding inflations impact on monetary policy. Meaning that if there are signs that FOMC members were already talking about the notion that inflation was eroding last month and was expected to continue to decline further – this could feed into weaker USD outlooks mid-term.

Wednesday, 22nd of November, E.U ECB Financial Stability Review – this report will have limited impact because Forex will remain USD centric. The EUR, like the GBP and JPY, is showing signs of a recovery based on the notion of having been oversold. Traders should be cautious about the EUR/USD later this weeek because of the U.S holiday and expect volatility.

Wednesday, 22nd of November, U.S Core Durable Goods Orders, and Revised Consumer Sentiment via University of Michigan – both these reports may fall on a U.S marketplace that is preparing to escape for the long holiday weekend. Last week’s weaker than anticipated Retail Sales numbers will combine nicely with the Consumer Sentiment reading, but again its affect may be muted. If the Core Durable Goods Orders number meets expectations or comes in with a slightly less than expected statistic, this could help continue to create weaker USD outlooks.

Thursday, 23rd of November, U.K and E.U Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI – the reports from Great Britain and the European Union are expected to show stable results, but also that purchasing managers remain unimpressed by the prospect of future demand over the mid-term in Europe.

Friday, 24th of November, Germany Business Climate via ‘ifo’ – this report is expected to be better than last month’s outcome. If the result is stronger than expected this could help the EUR/USD going into the weekend.

Friday, 24th of November, U.S Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI – both reports are expected to be slightly weaker than the last month’s numbers. U.S trading will be limited before going into the weekend. Yes, many markets will be open but volumes will be sparse. This could set the table for a reaction early next week if financial institutions believe they can take advantage of Forex, equity and commodity markets that became unbalanced during the Thanksgiving holiday celebrations.

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Behavioral Sentiment: Sports and Trading a Key Correlation

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

Behavioral Sentiment: Sports and Trading a Key Correlation

In order to be an effective day trader a speculator needs to be able to control their emotions. A person can have years of market knowledge, the best schooling, read the world’s greatest books, be able to quote the leading financial experts and still be a bad trader. While it is important to understand the complexities being generated via technical and fundamentals and the power of behavioral sentiment, again it doesn’t guarentee you profits.

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CBOE VIX Index six month chart as of 17th November 2023

When a day trader initiates pursuit of position, long or short, they can even be right about the eventual direction and still lose their money when the trade is complete. The missing link for many speculators while trading is their inability to control their emotions.

Many sports fans know that there are teams that have some of the highest paid athletes, but frequently have lackluster results because the team is not able to handle the bright lights of the stadium, they let crowds affect them. Some teams simply prove over time they are not prepared to really compete in the most important games; trading results frequently are similar when a speculator is not ready for the financial market they want to compete within.

Unless a market participant can handle their anxiousness, nervousness, frustration, assaults from value gyrations (reversals of price), doubts and the noise of the crowd (news being generated from the media that is mere hyberbole) and other challenges that can affect their emotional state – a trader is unlikely to have success.

Sports and trading are very similar sometimes. Professional athletic competitions between the world’s best are often a contest of ‘wills’. In many sports the top athletes are almost equally matched regarding their physical ability. In trading many speculators have the same perspectives regarding potential market directions, yet they produce different outcomes.

The difference maker in sports and trading when it comes to positive results – winning, is the ability to control their emotional state. Remaining calm and focused, knowing the goal and tasks that must be accomplished to achieve victory in sports and trading is often the result of keeping tranquil psychologically in the middle of battle.

You can have all the necessary trading skills needed to pursue a position within Forex, equity indices, commodities via the cash market, CFDs and futures, but if you do not have control of your emotions you are likely to lose.

Day traders also need to understand that one day of results, winning or losing, does not mean anything regarding future prospects. Like the best athletes, traders need to enter every trade as if it is a new game. Discipline, tactical objectives are important in trading. Being able to walk away from a losing position and leaving enough in your account to pursue the markets, for the next time you feel there is a potentially profitable objective that is attractive is also important.

You must know yourself to be a good trader, you must understand your own emotions and work on weaknesses. The ability to be profitable over a long time is not as simple as merely entering your online trading platform and opening a position which has been recommended or that you think is a winner.

It is one thing to understand the positive movement of a potential trade, but you must be ready for the negative possibilities when a trade is not going your way and the ability to navigate through the storm. Is your stop loss in place? Does the amount of leverage you are using allow you to walk away from a losing trade and still have enough ammunition (money) for other trades? Can you handle the volatility that is likely to ensue in potentially choppy conditions?

You need a solid gameplan. One of the greatest risks a trader is confronted by is their lack of emotional fortitude. Successful speculators embrace their trading positions because they are attractive, but they also manage their expectations and have a plan of attack in place before they enter every trade. Good traders can block out the noise of the crowd and enjoy the competitive nature of battling the financial markets.

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Yields, Credit Worthiness, Trading and Geo-Political Risks

by with No Comment AMT MarketsAssetsFeatured Highlights

Yields, Credit Worthiness, Trading and Geo-Political Risks

Traders participating in Forex and equity indices this week may want to consider finding a very quiet room and avoiding the loud conjecture which is certain to be heard. U.S bond yields will remain a focal point the entire week, and Moody’s new negative label regarding U.S credit worthiness issued late on Friday will not help the Federal Reserve and Treasury as the size of U.S debt is called into question once again. Forex markets provided speculators velocity and volatility last Thursday and Friday, and this week’s risk events are certain to cause behavioral sentiment turbulence.

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USD/CNY Five Year Chart as of 13th November 2023

Added to the ‘fun’ for speculators this week will be the APEC Summit gyrations which will be held in San Francisco, and includes a scheduled meeting with President Joe Biden and President Xi Jinping this Wednesday. The meeting comes at a critical time as geo-political and economic concerns come from Asia, the Middle East and Eastern Europe.

However, traders should not allow their emotions to grow too nervous, financial institutions actually showed a taste for U.S equity indices last week and the price of gold has declined, while the value of Crude Oil per barrel has also eroded. This shows that even in the midst of carnival like barking from pessimistic naysayers, that investors are still participating in the broad markets and makeing bets on the notion that optimism will continue to show sparks of light.

Monday, 13th of November, U.S Federal Budget Balance – this report is certain to be rather negative if studied closely. However, investors already know this story, and last week’s Moody’s downgrade of U.S credit accountability has already rang alarms. Thus, this report will likely fall on deaf ears today.

Tuesday, 14th of November, E.U Flash GDP – the numbers from the European Union are exected to be negative. However, last week’s slightly better than expected Germany Factory Orders may help the European Gross Domestic Product results limit the capability of a surprisingly bad decline. An expectation of only minus -0.1% is awaited.

Tuesday, 14th of November, U.S Consumer Price Index – the inflation numbers from the States will get the attention of most global investors. The results are sure to affect the USD, Treasury yields and equity markets. A weaker than expected outcome could propel the USD lower. Stronger than estimated statistics could ignite buying of the USD based on the notion the Fed will feel compelled to remain aggressive via its monetary policy rhetoric.

Wednesday, 15th of November, China Industrial Production – while the APEC Summit is highlighted by the media, it is economic data from China which remains important. Data from the nation continues to be lackluster and demand for commodities, the USD/CNY, domestic real estate and conusmer spending are all being watched and questioned by financial analysts. A gain of 4.5% is expected.

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GBP/USD Three Month Chart as of 13th of November 2023

Wednesday, 15th of November, U.K CPI, the inflation numbers from Britain will be important and will follow Tuesday’s Average Earnings Index publication. The GBP/USD has found choppy terrain and the results of the combined numbers from the U.K will affect Forex, even if USD centric considerations remain key.

Wednesday, 15th of November, U.S Producers Price Index, Retail Sales, and the Empire State Manufacturing Index – these reports will be issued at roughly the same time and will factor into sentiment created from the U.S CPI data seen the day before. The combination of all these outcomes will play into the broad markets, and the USD within all major currency pairs. Weaker than anticipated numbers would be welcome by USD sellers. However, until the reports are published wagering on the USD will prove volatile and risk management is encouraged.

Thursday, 16th of November, U.S Federal Reserve Officials – at least 4 U.S Federal Reserve members will be speaking at various conferences. They are sure to give their opinions on the Federal Funds Rate outlook and will be asked to comment on the week’s data already published in the U.S regarding inflation and consumer spending.

Friday, 17th of November, U.K Retail Sales – a gain of 0.3% is expected compared to last month’s negative results. Speculators will react to the consumer driven data and the GBP/USD will again come under the influence of risk sentiment regarding outlook. However, traders need to understand these numbers are largely a result of looking backwards and not forwards regarding outcomes.

Friday, 17th of November, U.S Housing Starts and Building Permits – the American housing industry is being closely monitored and the high costs of mortgages is affecting the U.S marketplace. The Building Permits number is expected to be slightly lower than last month’s outcome. Traders should also keep their eyes on the potential of revisions to suddenly emerge from previous reports.

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Thoughts for the 10th of November

by with No Comment AMT MarketsArtFeatured Highlights

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Thoughts for the 10th of November

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AMT Top Ten Thoughts for 10th of November 2023

10. Book: Art Lover: A Biography of Peggy Guggenheim by Anton Gill.

9. Music: Igor Stravinsky’s The Firebird.

8. Word of Day: Parabolic which highlights Bitcoin’s movement the past month, and may be followed by the word reversal.

7. Centrism: A political wish for our times.

6. Equivocate: Central Banks led by the U.S Federal Reserve continue to protect one another by talking out of both sides of their mouths.

5. Gold: 1950.00 USD per ounce looks to be important support for the precious metal via a three month chart. Will 1950.00 USD remain durable?

4. USD: Stubborn choppy Forex conditions continue to flourish and may remain prevalent in the near-term.

3. Consumer Sentiment: U.S consumers are staying away from home purchases because of high interest rates, today’s data from the University of Michigan will shed light on what they are buying instead.

2. U.S Treasuries: Higher yields are trouble for the Federal Reserve, and should scare U.S citizens who may be penalized with higher taxes to pay off U.S mounting debts.

1: USD/JPY: Japanese Yen trading near values last sustained in 1990 for a significant amount of time.

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Optimism in Challenging Conditions and Time Considerations

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

Optimism in Challenging Conditions and Time Considerations

Traders by nature are optimists, after all they are wagering on outcomes they believe are valid with targets regarding future results. Global market conditions for the moment have created expensive price action unfortunately, this as plenty of day traders wagering on their perceptions have found out while whipsaw movements and fast velocity have taken place and caused losses.

The USD continues to create turbulent higher values among many major currencies it is teamed against as financial institutions exhibit risk adverse tendencies. U.S Treasury yields may be going up because the U.S Federal Reserve continues to sound alarms regarding inflation, but the last two weeks of trading globally have seen an influx into U.S Treasuries as a safe haven move. Another signal that risk appetite is poor among global investors is because while the USD has gotten stronger, gold has also risen in value.

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Gold Five Year Chart as of 26th Oct. 2023

And importantly, global markets are trading in conditions which are not considered normal. Many inexperienced people within financial institutions have not dealt with markets like the ones being battled now. High interest rates combined with risk adverse conditions because of concerns regarding an escalation of war conditions in the Middle-East are causing a storm of volatility. U.S stock indices are trading at mid-term lows, and this may continue to be a theme over the next few weeks and beyond, but certainly there are those among us who look towards sunnier days.

So what does an optimist do if they are a day-trader? Perspective needs to be questioned at all times by speculators, and bias regarding all insights by individuals need to be given consideration. A trader must make sure they are not trading based on noise which is coming from the media and tainted with hyperbole. A trader must also question their personal instincts making sure they are free of preconceived notions. Behavioral sentiment gets affected from many angles when market noise becomes loud. Looking for a quiet place to think about market direction is vital for everyone.

Speculators need to remain calm and stick to risk management tactics that prove effective even during chaotic trading conditions. A variety of ways to be involved with the markets directly exists for all, Forex, equities and indices, commodities, bonds are only some of the avenues. Traders can go long or short on their chosen positions, they can participate in the ‘cash’ markets, but can also participate in futures and options trading via time related duration.

Famous investors are known for taking advantage of lower values when fear is high. They look for value via fundamentals within assets with long-term track records. It is not an accident the USD is strong, U.S Treasuries are being sought, gold is being bought currently.

Trends are there to be found and can be taken advantage of by day traders who are looking for quick hitting outcomes, but they must proceed carefully. Because it is also important to acknowledge that no matter how bad circumstances sometimes look in the short-term, that a positive quality among we as humans is to seek optimism. There are reasons to participate in trades with a perspective knowing more tranquil days will come and the markets will grow calm again, markets can reverse and suddenly display risk appetite.

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Tidbits for Friday 8th of Sept.

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Tidbits for Friday 8th of Sept.

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10. Detroit Lions: NFL season last night kicked off with upset of the Kansas City Chiefs.

9. Book: Koba the Dread – Laughter and the Twenty Million by Martin Amis.

8. Sports: Rugby World Cup 2023 begins later today as France and New Zealand meet.

7. South Africa: Load shedding stage number 6 this morning, USD/ZAR near highs.

6. Dominoes: U.S banking and commercial real estate wobbling and problematic.

5. U.S Federal Reserve: Talk from both sides of mouth ongoing, but ill-advised.

4. Equities: Major U.S Indices remain under pressure with fragile behavioral sentiment.

3. Forex: USD strong as other major currencies trade with lower values.

2. Murky Outlooks: U.S Treasuries yields have come off highs seen on Wednesday.

1. China: Trade Balance data was poor yesterday, CPI and PPI statistics tomorrow.