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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Intrigues for the 17th of May 2024

by with No Comment CommoditiesDataFinancial Institutions

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Intrigues for the 17th of May 2024

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10. Georgia and Slovakia: It would we wise to pay attention to Tbilisi demonstrations, and also cast an eye on Bratislava after the assassination attempt of Prime Minister Fico. Russia is certainly paying attention.

9. Superconductivity: Origin Quantum Computing Technology of China is making solid advancements and has announced they are ready to domestically produce a 72 qubit capable microwave module known as ‘Origin Wukong’. The battle to create efficient quantum components and operating systems between China, the U.S and others is real.

8. Secretary of Music: Anthony Blinken’s naive decision to play guitar in a Kiev nightclub this week is comparable to Nero playing music while Rome burned. U.S foreign policy continues to raise concerned eyebrows from friends and foes alike.

7. South African Election: The coming vote on the 29th of May is less than two weeks away. USD/ZAR as of this writing is near 18.22000, where will it be on the 30th of May?

6. Biden and Trump: The potential for debates between the two presidential candidates is growing. One question observers may be wondering is if there is adequate supply of caffeine to keep Joe energetic and ample enough hairspray for Donald to look under control?

5. GameStop: Yet another market manipulation of GME is causing massive losses for day traders. The price for the stock finished near $27.67 yesterday, this after touching a high above $56.00 on the 14th of May. GME was close to $10.00 on the 15th of April. Buyers that get in too late to these betting schemes created by frenzied crowds tend to go bust as the early manipulators cash out their profits.

4. Commodities: Cocoa is near 7560.0 USD per metric ton, and Coffee Arabica is traversing slightly below 200.00 USD. Speculative forces remain powerful in both and while they are likely still overpriced, risk management is imperative for those pursuing lower values.

3. Federal Reserve: After the weaker than anticipated CPI numbers printed this Wednesday, and last week’s eroding GDP growth statistics, financial institutions are increasing their risk appetite as they watch U.S Treasury yields decline and consider a mid-term outlook which is allowing for the contemplation of actual Federal Funds Rate cuts.

2. Forex: The EUR/USD is back above the 1.08000 level comfortably, and the GBP/USD has found sustainable trading beyond the 1.26000 ratio. While the major currencies versus the USD have pulled back slightly from near-term highs, large commercial traders are exhibiting risk appetite. A weaker USD centric notion is coming into vogue again.

1. Apex Equities: The three major U.S indices are all near record territories as solid earnings reports from corporations, amidst hopes the Federal Reserve will be able to cut rates a couple of times this year has combined to allow optimism to grow in the S&P 500, Dow 30 and Nasdaq 100. While the U.S public is starting to show they are losing confidence because of escalating consumer prices, financial institutions are wagering on solid returns via economic outlooks. Day traders looking to join the indices parade should make sure they limit their exposure, particularly if they are using CFDs and relying on short-term climbs which can suffer from sudden reversals lower.

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Market Trading Risks: Speculative, Anxious Impatient Results

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

Market Trading Risks: Speculative, Anxious Impatient Results

Monday’s trading provided a solid oversight for day traders to observe market conditions in commodities, Forex and equities. Financial institutions appear to be leaning towards a belief the U.S Federal Reserve will have to become more dovish, but financial institutions and other large players are worried about shadows being caused by inflation concerns and timeframes which are likely sparking nervous wagers.

Via the commodities, results saw Gold come down from highs on Friday which approached the 2,380.00 USD perch, and drop to lows around 2333.00 yesterday. The precious metal remains within sight of record values, this as questions persist about USD direction, and speculative forces bet. WTI Crude Oil meanwhile climbed from a selloff late Friday and into yesterday’s opening while challenging the 77.75 USD vicinity, and as of early Tuesday is now over the 79.00 mark again.

Also within the volatile world of commodities it needs to be mentioned that Cocoa which regained a portion of its higher price values last week and finished Friday above 9,000.0 USD per metric ton, fell swiftly in yesterday’s trading session and is now traversing 7,357.0 USD. Cocoa has enjoyed a spectacularly wide ride of maneuvering via market forces. The commodity is still valued within loftier heights when compared to its historical averages, and demonstrates the speed and danger (and opportunity) of price velocity.

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Cocoa Three Month Chart on the 14th of May 2024

Further signs of risk appetite and fragile notions are being exhibited via U.S equity indices, which produced sideways price action yesterday as important economic data awaits and will certainly churn short-term and mid-term perspectives. The S&P 500 is again within sight of record levels, while investors of it and the Dow Jones 30 and Nasdaq 100 all brace for this week’s data which will affect their risk outlooks.

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S&P 500 Index Three Month Chart on the 14th of May 2024

Monday, 13th of May, New Zealand Inflation Expectations – yesterday’s quarterly result came in slightly below the previous report. The decrease of inflation concerns likely helped the NZD/USD spark Monday’s climb above 0.60300 briefly. This morning’s early trading is seeing sideways action as U.S inflation reports are anticipated and the currency pair ebbs around 0.60180.

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GBP/USD Three Month Chart on the 14th of May 2024

Tuesday, 14th of May, U.K Average Earnings Index, a gain of 5.7% has just been posted. This result will make GBP/USD traders nervous because it highlights that inflation remains sticky in Britain. While last week’s GDP numbers from the U.K showed an improvement, the growth certainly was not spectacular. The range of the GBP/USD remains choppy and bullish day traders targeting higher ratios on the belief the currency pair remains in oversold territory need to consider their timeframes and bias. While the 1.26000 may look like a logical target, it will take weaker U.S inflation and USD centric price action to get there.

Tuesday, 14th of May, U.S Core Producer Price Index – last month’s core report matched expectations. However, the PPI numbers occasionally spell trouble in Forex. Higher inflation results from the U.S would certainly kickstart volatility for all major currency pairs today.

Wednesday, 15th of May, U.S Consumer Price Index – this reading could prove to be the prime mover for financial assets this week because of its potential affect on behavioral sentiment. The Federal Reserve watches this number because of the influence it has on the American public. Forex will react to this report and if it is weaker than anticipated this would create weaker USD centric price action. The U.S will also report Retail Sales and the Empire State Manufacturing Index statistics on Wednesday.

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USD/JPY Three Month Chart on the 14th of May 2024

Thursday, 16th of May, Japan Preliminary Gross Domestic Product – last month’s report came in with a gain of 0.1%. This GDP data carries an expectation of minus -0.4%. Traders who like fundamentals should pay attention to revisions within the statistical pages. The Bank of Japan remains in a curious and suspicious predicament. After two interventions, the USD/JPY has climbed incrementally once again. The BoJ is certainly keeping their eyes on the USD/JPY and know financial institutions are still wagering against the Japanese Yen.

Day traders should be extremely cautious with the USD/JPY because the BoJ has the ability to strike with a massive blow when not expected. Risk management is essential for speculators wagering on this currency pair. Evidence of speculative interest in the USD/JPY correlates to the notion that while the USD has been weaker against many major currencies recently, the Japanese Yen remains within a weaker and elevated price range.

Friday, 17th of May, China Industrial Production and Retail Sales – economic dark clouds continue to cascade on Asia’s largest economy. The industrial numbers will be watched by investors certainly, but the overall health of Chinese consumers will likely be the focal point. The USD/CNY remains within bullish terrain, but the Shanghai Stock Exchange’s SSE Index has done well since its lows in the first week of February.
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Forex: Shifting Winds and Potential Optimism for Speculators

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

Forex: Shifting Winds and Potential Optimism for Speculators

The BoJ intervened in Forex and propelled two fast selloffs of the USD/JPY last week. The actions by the Bank of Japan did not come as a surprise as the central bank seeks to maintain a dovish interest rate policy, a relatively weak Japanese Yen – but also a philosophy of not letting the JPY to suffer too much. Speculators and financial institutions got caught up in the price action which ensued as a clash developed between large traders and the BoJ as equilibrium was sought.

The BoJ clearly wants to keep the USD/JPY within the weaker realms of its long-term values to spur on the Japanese export sector with solid business results. However, domestically the Japanese government doesn’t want inflation within Japan to inflict too much pain for its citizens. BoJ interventions were carried out twice last week, once during a holiday in Japan, and the second when most global financial institutions were shuttered. At the time of this writing the USD/JPY is trading near the 153.720 mark.

Day traders always need to understand just how small they are within the larger speculative world. They need to judge economic intelligence and forecasts to get an understanding where behavioral sentiment could affect tides.

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USD/JPY One Month Chart on 6th of May 2024

In the U.S, inflation and growth data caused investors to react nervously a week and a a half ago, additionally more anxious moments were fueled by the Federal Reserve’s FOMC Statement this past Wednesday when the Fed said it was uncertain about the timetable that inflation would return to their stated goal of two percent. Forex trading has been volatile the entire calendar year of 2024 for speculators.

Nearly ten days ago while inflation continued to prove it was stubborn via the U.S GDP Price Index on the 25th of April, Advance GDP data was much weaker than expected showing that economic growth was slowing. And last Friday’s Non-Farm Employment results were not only weaker regarding hiring, but also showed a slight drop in Average Hourly Earnings. This might have been enough to begin causing a shift in financial institution outlooks. This week of trading will prove interesting regarding risk appetite versus risk averse sentiment, particularly if large players believe economic data is finally catching up to the Fed’s rhetoric.

U.S equity indices which started last week with selling and battled lower depths in the middle of the week, began to see buying develop on Thursday, and finished Friday’s trading within their highs via weekly technical charts. While it is easy to report the past, it is the future speculators want to know. The ability of the U.S jobs numbers to produce results which were seen in a favorable light regarding the Fed’s ability to potentially cut the Federal Funds Rate certainly was an optimistic sign for financial institutions. If inflation can remain under control it would help the global economic picture. On that note, WTI Crude Oil is trading below 80.00 USD and should be monitored.

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S&P 500 Index Three Month Chart on 6th of May 2024.

Monday, 6th of May, European Union Final Services PMI – Italy, France and Germany among other will present Purchasing Managers Index data. The broad numbers are mostly expected to replicate the previous month’s outcomes. Traders should note the U.K is observing a banking holiday today, which means lighter than normal Forex volumes will be seen.

Tuesday, 7th of May, Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Statement – the central bank is not expected to change its interest rate. The AUD/USD has provided some upwards momentum the past week. The RBA is not expected to step out of line regarding global central bank policies. Expect talk about an optimistically cautious outlook by the RBA as they preach patience regarding an interest rate cut.

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AUD/USD One Month Chart on 6th of May 2024

Wednesday, 8th of May, Bond Sales from Japan, the U.K and the U.S – while many European nations observe a holiday, Japan, Great Britain and the U.S will sell government debt. U.S Treasury yields should be watched and equity indices should have an eye kept on them. If behavioral sentiment remains optimistic as this day comes to a close it could set the table for more bullishness, particularly if the USD remains relatively tame or weaker.

Thursday, 9th of May, Bank of England Monetary Policy Summary – the BoE is likely to mirror other central banks and keep its interest rate policy in place. No changes are expected to the Official Bank Rate. However, it would not be surprising to hear the BoE try to pose upbeat expectations, and if this occurs perhaps the GBP/USD will continue to find some momentum upwards.

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GBP/USD One Month Chart on 6th of May 2024

Thursday, 9th of May, U.S Weekly Unemployment Claims – investors will keep their eyes on the jobs report. If the numbers come in around expectations this would allow risk appetite to remain strong in the near-term.

Friday, 10th of May, U.K Gross Domestic Product – an expected gain of 0.1% is forecast. GBP/USD traders who have bullish sentiment will be looking for the number to match expectations or beat the anticipated result. If the number is weaker, this could cause a reversal lower in the GBP/USD and an attempt to push back against gains made in the currency pair recently.

Friday, 10th of May, U.S Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations via the University of Michigan – these readings will be watched by investors to see if consumers continue to show decreasing confidence in the U.S economy. While it sounds counter intuitive to want eroding sentiment regarding the ability to spend money, this would create more ammunition for the Federal Reserve to consider an interest rate cut. The Inflation Expectations could be the catalyst for traders going into the weekend regarding the USD.

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Observations for 3rd of May 2024

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Observations for 3rd of May 2024

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10. Formula One: The Miami Grand Prix race will be held on Sunday. Whispers have been heard that Red Bull driver Max Verstappen has been approached by Mercedes bidding an annual contract over 150 million USD, but that he has not accepted the offer. However, Adrian Newey, engineer and CTO of Red Bull Racing, has confirmed he is leaving the team after 19 years of leadership. F1 certainly needs more competitive racing, a shake up at Red Bull could deliver this for the sport.

9. De-movements: Desire for decolonization, decarbonization, depopulation, turned into delusion and dehydration for Columbia University protestors and the need for a glass of water per the request of a student leader. Perhaps de-escalation is next.

8. Geopolitics: The nation of Georgia is dealing with demonstrations as some citizens show disdain regarding feared political influence from Russia. Georgia has an approximate population of 3.7 million. The East European and West Asian country has seen civil disobedience on the streets of Tbilisi increase this week.

7. Lower Values: Cocoa is near 7,658.00 USD per metric ton as of this morning, on the 19th of April it traded above 12,000.00 briefly. BTC/USD is around 59,250 after having faced headwinds this week.

6. Gold: The precious metal has sold off this week and is hovering near 2,300.00 per ounce as concerns build about USD outlook remaining strong over the mid-term. A low of nearly 2,282.00 was seen on Wednesday. Today’s publication of U.S economic data will push the price of Gold around.

5. Mixed Trading: Equity indices have produced uneven results this week as investors try to find equilibrium. Optimism almost always is the eventual emotion long-term institutional market participants lean towards. The S&P 500, Dow 30, and Nasdaq Composite all gained yesterday, but remain below highs from earlier in the week. Behavioral sentiment appears fragile and many Fed observers are disgruntled.

4. Uncertainty: The Federal Reserve has admitted it is unsure about future economic progress this calendar year. When questioned about the potential of stagflation Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said he see no signs of this – while forgetting to add that politically saying such a thing would likely cost him his job. And lets remember, the Fed claimed they thought inflation was transitory in July of 2021.

3. Bank of Japan: A battle is underway with the USD/JPY as the BoJ has staged two interventions this week. Intent on trying to create economic growth via stronger exports, while allowing import inflation to be seen, the BoJ interest rate policy remains dovish. The USD/JPY is near 153.230 now, but it is unlikely to go into the weekend with this price. An apex on the 29th of April approached the 159.610 ratio. Financial institutions and Japanese Yen traders must remain alert.

2. High Anxiety: Day traders in Forex, equity indices and commodities have certainly seen heightened volatility and the choppiness is going to persist. Retail brokers will welcome speculators with open arms and point to opportunities, but traders need to understand the ‘casino’ often is making money via losses incurred because of leveraged wagers which turn into losing bets when price velocity hits.

1. Jobs Data: Yet another opportunity for inflation to be seen today via the Average Hourly Earnings numbers. A cautionary road sign was seen this Tuesday when the U.S Employment Cost Index came in with a stronger than anticipated quarterly gain of 1.2%. The USD will remain a lynchpin in many financial assets, and Treasury yields should be watched after the employment statistics have been printed.

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BoJ and Fed are today’s Forex Bogeymen, and Job Numbers Lurk

by with No Comment Behavioral SentimentCentral BanksFeatured Highlights

BoJ and Fed are today's Forex Bogeymen, and Job Numbers Lurk

While the Showa holiday is being observed in Japan, the BoJ has apparently reacted with an intervention after seeing the USD/JPY race to new highs in the wake of the central bank’s decision to hold its Policy Rate at 0.10% on Friday. If in fact the Bank of Japan has acted when most Japanese financial institutions are celebrating a long holiday weekend, the reaction to the intervention will be noteworthy when Japanese currency traders return to their desks tomorrow. The question obviously becomes whether large players in the JPY will continue to wager against the Bank of Japan’s current monetary policy or if the apparent intervention will make them cautious.

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USD/JPY One Day Chart as of 29th April 2024

U.S data this past Thursday turned in rather clumsy statistics starting with the Advance Gross Domestic Product growth results which showed the American economy is slowing. However, the GDP Price Index came in slightly higher than anticipated. This caused some tremors in Forex. Friday was followed by additionally troublesome readings when the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment outcome was weaker than expected, but the U of M Inflation Expectations gauge was higher than the previous month’s report.

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USD Cash Index Five Day Chart as of 29th April 2024

The USD began to show signs of weakness in many major currency pairs last week. Perhaps the expectation that the worst of Federal Reserve outlook has now been absorbed is playing into the Forex results. However, the past four months of trading have produced a continuous choppy wagering landscape for speculators and clarity still does not exist.

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Gold One Month Chart as of 29th April 2024

Suspicion of the Bank of Japan’s intervention this morning and the creeping shadow from the U.S Federal Reserve which is scheduled to deliver their FOMC Statement this Wednesday have created trading bogeymen in many financial assets. The strains in the major equity indices, Treasuries and Forex are prime examples. While day traders try to find fair market value technically and financial institutions seek equilibrium, most observers likely have nervous behavioral sentiment as they consider mid-term prospects. The past month of speculative trading in Gold has produced record highs, but ran into resistance the past week as questions arise about USD inverse correlations not being technically efficient recently.

Monday, 29th April, Germany – Consumer Price Index – the inflation results from Germany should be given attention. The number will certainly affect sentiment surrounding the ECB and the EUR/USD, however the report should not cause an earthquake.

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USD/CNY One Month Chart as of 29th April 2024

Tuesday, 30th April, China Manufacturing PMI – the nation has been making claims via government officials the economy is showing signs of a rebound. Yet, disturbing consumer data continues to be seen. The manufacturing statistics from China though will also reflect demand in what is generally accepted as a recessionary period for many global spheres. Traders of the USD/CNY should pay attention to the outcome, the currency pair has incrementally climbed and there are rampant whispers about China undertaking a policy to weaken the Chinese Yuan to spur economic growth.

Wednesday, 1st May, U.S Federal Reserve Funds Rate and FOMC Statement – the Fed will not change its interest rate this week. What will be noteworthy is how Fed Chairman Powell presents this month’s FOMC Statement rhetorically as he is asked questions during his Press Conference. We are certain to hear words mentioned like ‘lagging data and positive signs regarding the potential of weakening inflation’. The question financial institutions want to know is how long will they have to wait for a change to the Federal Funds Rate. The Fed is likely to try sounding cautiously optimistic, but will it be believed? Forex will react to the Fed’s policy meeting pronouncements, but no major surprises should be expected. Some observers may find interesting evidence regarding the future for Fed’s policy via the price of WTI Crude Oil which is hovering near 83.00 USD per barrel as of this writing, because stable energy prices are a key factor regarding inflation.

Thursday, 2nd May, U.S Weekly Unemployment Claims – the jobs data which will start to be delivered late this week will get attention. Forex traders however will be swimming within the riptides already created by the Federal Reserve’s policy.

Friday, 3rd May, U.S Non-Farm Employment Change Numbers and Average Hourly Earnings – these reports will cause a reaction. What financial institutions will be on the hunt for is weaker than anticipated hiring. The inflation numbers from the wages report will be a factor too. The USD traded with a slight decline in Forex last week, those who believe the greenback has been too strong and are inclined to remain sellers should pay attention to the U.S jobs numbers. If the headline hiring number is stronger than anticipated, analysts will rush to the back pages of the statistics to see if part-time hiring is still outpacing full-time employment.

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Picks for the 26th of April 2024

by with No Comment Behavioral SentimentCentral BanksEquities

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Picks for the 26th of April 2024

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10. Salk Institute: Work known as the Harnessing Plants Initiative is focused on optimizing the ability of plants to help combat climate change, sometimes via root systems in order to help reduce carbon dioxide. Problematically when plants die they do release carbon dioxide too. One key to the HPI project maybe altering the affects of Suberin. The Salk Institute received 50 million USD last year from the Hess Corporation to fight climate change.

9. Anticipation: Chicago is celebrating today after landing quarterback Caleb Williams and wide receiver Rome Odunze as hoped. However, as the August 2024 Democratic National Convention approaches, trepidation for the potential of nasty demonstrations is building.

8. Quantum Investing: Oak Ridge National Laboratory has announced a successful test using the H1-1 computer via Quantinuum to study the spread of disease via quantum mathematical models. Honeywell International Inc. owns a large stake in Quantinuum which is a stand alone company valued at approximately 5 billion USD.

7. Speculative: Gold is near 2348.00, the price is below values seen last week, but remains high via some perspectives as the USD creates havoc.

6. Forex: Whipsaw volatility has been seen in foreign exchange as financial institutions fight to get a proper gauge on their mid-term outlooks. Equilibrium will continue to be fought over today.

5. Fixed Income: U.S Treasury yields are battling within higher ground as investors look for guaranteed returns as behavioral sentiment remains fragile. And there is a likelihood the next four days of trading will continue to produce a whirlwind.

4. Equities: Major U.S indices continue to grapple with headwinds caused by a murky economic outlook. Retail traders speculating via CFD’s should remain careful. Patience is a key for the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Dow 30. Trying to ‘time’ the indices for short-term wagers is dangerous because technical trends are vulnerable.

3. Data: U.S Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index statistics will be released today, inflation via the GDP Price Index came in higher than expected yesterday. Forex will react to the PCE results which is anticipated to have a gain of 0.3%. Financial institutions do not need another scare today. The Revised University of Michigan Inflation Expectations reading should also be given attention which will be published afterwards.

2. BoJ: The Bank of Japan is clearly playing a game of truth or dare with Forex. Having held interest rates at merely 0.10% earlier today, the USD/JPY climbed comfortably above 156.000 and is presently near the 156.540. The BoJ will remain in the news as the USD/JPY trades around a 34 year high. As financial institutions clamor for a higher interest rate, the BoJ apparently is more concerned with creating dynamic export demand and growing Japan’s economy, believing it can keep inflation under control. Speculators need to be on alert for an intervention from the Bank of Japan, but cannot count on one either.

1. Analysis Paralysis: The Federal Reserve was served an intriguing dose of results via the lower than expected growth numbers from the Gross Domestic Product yesterday, while digesting a higher GDP Price Index. Jerome Powell has stressed caution and patience. However, yesterday’s stubborn inflation numbers with waning growth creates the prospect for stagflation. This is an important political year because of the upcoming U.S elections in November. Next Wednesday the Fed’s FOMC Meeting pronouncements will be made. There will not be a change to the Federal Funds Rate on the 1st of May. It is the FOMC Statement’s vocabulary which will get attention. Today’s inflation reports will play a role in next week’s Fed meeting. Day traders may want to tune out political noise from pundits today which will certainly be sounded. The inflation numbers globally are tricky, and have created overthinking by investors and central banks which remain mostly reactive.

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Missiles for the 19th of April 2024

by with No Comment Behavioral SentimentCentral BanksCommodities

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Missiles for the 19th of April 2024

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10. Fusion: The U.S Senate presented legislation yesterday which creates guidelines allowing the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to authorize commercial investment and research of fusion energy. Significant strides are being made in the technology and the U.S government is preparing for the newest developments.

9. Cup of Joe: Your cafe is going to get more expensive. Robusta and Arabica coffee both remain at higher values having hit apex prices respectively this Wednesday and Thursday. And Cocoa remains ‘comfortably’ above 11,000.00 USD per metric ton this morning.

8. United Arab Emirates: The UAE has been hit by heavy weather, suffering its biggest rainfall in 75 years. It was reported that over 14 centimeters of rain fell this Tuesday in Dubai, which is the equivalent to one and a half year’s worth of typical accumulation in the city.

7. India Elections: The vote in the world’s biggest democracy has begun as millions decide on the the Lok Sabha. The election process will take place for nearly a month and a half with the results formally being presented on 4th of June. The Bharatiya Janata Party is expected to win a majority in the House of the People, thus likely re-electing Narendra Modi as the country’s Prime Minister.

6. Gold: The precious metal remains within sight of record values with the price around 2,388.00 USD per ounce. Today’s earlier ratios touched the 2,420.00 vicinity.

5. Cone of Silence: Israel and Iran have remained mum on military counterstrike action scuttlebutt, which was heard this morning throughout global media. The silence from the two nations did not stop the Nikkei 225 Index from dropping over 1000 points upon the news.

4. Bitcoin Halving: A coding change is anticipated to occur soon in Bitcoin which will affect ‘mining’ parameters for the digital asset. The code change will double the amount processing needed to create one BTC, making it twice as expensive for Bitcoin operators. Day traders tempted to wager on BTC/USD over the next couple of days need to be careful. BTC/USD is near 64,560.00 at the moment of this report.

3. Fear Factor: Price of WTI Crude Oil is near 82.70 USD per barrel. Large energy traders continue to show they are experienced in geopolitics, remaining relatively calm as Middle East concerns are being brandished.

2. While Flag: U.S Fed Chairman Jerome Powell conceded that inflation remains stubborn earlier this week. Stagflation is not being discussed openly by the Fed, but it is likely raising concerns among global central bankers. The USD has returned to very strong levels as financial institutions brace for the possibility of U.S interest rates remaining high into the late summer.

1. Behavioral Sentiment: Equity indices, Treasury yields and Forex are within the midst of nervous seas as central banks and geopolitical concerns create storms. Speculators should make sure they pay attention to the waters they traverse with their bets, which could prove dangerous to navigate in the near-term.

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Forex: Behind the Curtain as Speculative Deja Vu Strikes

by with No Comment AMT MarketsCentral BanksFeatured Highlights

Forex: Behind the Curtain as Speculative Deja Vu Strikes

Friday jobs reports came in stronger than anticipated on the surface, and this led to a roller coaster like ride for Forex traders as results were acted upon by financial institutions. However, a look behind the data shows ‘positive’ results were spurred on by part-time hiring and government influences leading to a notion that jobs numbers were not exactly a ray of sunshine regarding U.S economic health. The suspicious results cause a desire to look for ulterior motives, and to wonder if election year politics are playing a role in the U.S employment picture.

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GBP/USD Six Month Chart as of 9th April 2024

The GBP/USD and EUR/USD are rather insightful for technical and fundamental traders. The currency pairs are languishing as of today’s values near pricing that was seen in the second week of December. Since the ‘announcement’ from the U.S Federal Reserve on the 13th of December that a change in monetary policy would begin to occur in 2024, in actuality nothing has really happened, except government ‘speak’ trying to sound as if everything is understood and in control, while it is clearly not.

Economic data from the U.S and Europe has continued to be soiled by mixed results, and retail speculators looking for a trend to emerge have had to deal with choppy conditions. Financial institutions remain unclear about interest rate outlooks. The Fed while trying to ‘sound’ dovish rhetoric remains locked within a Google engine keyword mantra as they mutter the phrase ‘over time’ when trying to convince people that interest rates will ‘eventually’ be cut.

Last week leading up to the Non-Farm Employment Change numbers, many FOMC members were offering cautious tones about the Federal Funds Rate and warning it should not be changed yet. The implication of the Fed’s verbiage could lead some to suspect they have all practiced statements handed to them by their overlords who are concerned this is an election year and jobs are in jeopardy.

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EUR/USD Six Month Chart as of 9th April 2024

Which leads us back to Forex and all financial assets, as investors try to swim waters which have left fundamental perspectives grasping at data which is not easy to decipher. U.S government policy is practicing fiscal spending that is causing massive debts, and perhaps influencing hiring data which may be more akin to putting lipstick on a pig. Many U.S voters seemingly lean towards electing officials who promise to hand out the biggest ‘social rewards’, while ignoring there will be a price to be paid down the road.

The Federal Reserve in the meantime tries to sound optimistic about inflation eroding, but concerns due to U.S government debt being accrued, and global geopolitical affairs combined with energy policy which is making it more expensive to maintain cheap transportation, efficient agriculture and manufacturing, shadow the Fed’s hopes. WTI Crude Oil remains over 86.00 USD per barrel. Gold is trading at record high values and above 2300.00 USD. Does anyone see the dangerous connections? Equity indices should be watched as a barometer this week.

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USD/JPY Six Month Chart as of 9th April 2024

Monday, 8th of April, Japan Average Cash Earnings and Economic Watchers Sentiment – yesterday’s reports matched expectations regarding wages, but workers surveyed noted their concerns about incremental inflation which is being seen in Japan. The USD/JPY is challenging November higher values and the Bank of Japan has been widely criticized for not raising interest rates more aggressively. However, it is possible the BoJ wants the Japanese Yen to remain within its weaker price range to spark a stronger Japanese economy via exports.

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AUD/USD Six Month Chart as of 9th April 2024

Tuesday, 9th of April, Australia Westpac Consumer Sentiment – the results via the consumer reading came in negative. The AUD/USD like the GBP/USD and EUR/USD is traversing values tested in the second week of December 2023, leading to the feeling of deja vu.

Wednesday, 10th of April, U.S Consumer Price Index – you have heard this before, the inflation reports from the States are going to rattle the financial markets including Forex. The USD is certain to react. Data from the U.S has produced surprises aplenty in the past few months. The Consumer Price Index is important and day traders certainly need to pay attention.

Thursday, 11th of April, European Central Bank – the ECB is not expected to change its Main Refinancing Rate, but many analysts believe they should cut borrowing costs. However, the ECB will likely remain within the camp of choosing to ‘wait and see’. The ECB Press Conference with Christine Legarde has widely become regarded as an opportunity for political speech as much as an economic dialogue. Recent data from the European Union suggests the worst of the recessionary cycle is gone, but German Trade Balance numbers released on Monday were negative, highlighting hurdles remain. Inflation is a worry, and a cut to the interest rate might be able to help spur on economic activity while counting on lagging data to prove proactive policy should be implemented. But this likely is not going to happen and the EUR/USD will remain problematic.

Thursday, 11th of April, U.S Producer Price Index – these slew of reports should be watched carefully. If the data is stronger than expected it is likely a part of the residue caused by higher energy costs that have affected logistics and created more expensive raw materials which are needed to produce goods. It was the higher PPI reports last month that caused dramatic tidal shifts in Forex, speculators should brace for the potential of additional mayhem.

Friday, 12th of April, U.K Gross Domestic Product – last month’s GDP numbers from Great Britain came in slightly higher than expected with a 0.2% gain, this report is anticipating growth of only 0.1%. Traders should take a deeper look at the statistics upon publication and check for revisions to past months. The U.K economy has been struggling, the ‘growth’ results will affect the GBP/USD before going into the weekend.

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USD and the Fed: Parade of Jobs Data Ready to Make Noise

by with No Comment AMT MarketsEconomic CalendarFeatured Highlights

USD and the Fed: Parade of Jobs Data Ready to Make Noise

U.S data last week created landmines for Forex speculators and the Federal Reserve. Global financial markets return to full action today following the long holiday weekend. Growth and inflation numbers from the States last week provided more unsettling results for financial institutions. While Forex has proven difficult for many traders, the major equity indexes are flirting with highs but also running into some intermittent headwinds.

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US Dollar Index Six Month Chart as of 2nd April 204

In December of 2023 the Fed was interpreted as having confirmed it would be able to cut the Federal Funds Rate during the 2024 calendar year rather consistently. Dovish policy had been anticipated by financial institutions which began to sell the USD aggressively in November. But by the end of the Christmas week the USD had essentially hit lows in many major currency pairs, and as January started reversals intensified.

The last three months of trading has produced choppy conditions in Forex, but one thing is clear – financial institutions no longer believe the Federal Reserve will be able to aggressively cut the Federal Funds Rate. The Fed has now begun to show signs that it is nervous regarding U.S economic data, this as growth via GDP numbers has remained firm, inflation sticky, and consumers resilient. Clouds shadow Forex and day traders have been hampered by a lack of solid trends.

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Gold Six Month Chart as of 2nd April 2024

Gold is trading near record price levels. The fact that the precious metal is touching all-time values as the USD has been strong has flustered some speculators. But traders need to remember Gold is affected by large players, including nations, that may be hedging USD bets and preparing for political instability. The price of Gold may underscore belief the U.S Fed will have to cut rates at least a couple of times this year no matter the economic facts on the ground, because this is an election year and if the central bank doesn’t deliver on its ‘promise’ jobs at the Fed may be at stake.

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WTI Crude Oil One Month Chart as of 2nd April 2024

Not making anything easier for Federal Reserve policy is the higher price of WTI Crude Oil which has reached the 84.00 USD per barrel price. If energy costs go higher this will not help the fight against inflation. OPEC will be conducting a meeting this week. As an aside the price of Cocoa per metric ton is now over 10,000.00 USD, which is more expensive than Copper. While the price of Cocoa is not a game changer for global financial markets, the higher price will make chocolate more expensive, which some traders may find disagreeable as they try to relax and watch their speculative wagers while trying to nibble on their favorite snack.

Monday, 1st of April, U.S ISM Manufacturing – both the Purchasing Managers Index reading and the Price numbers came in higher than expected. The stronger results show the U.S economy remains better than anticipated by the Federal Reserve, which has been counting on its higher interest rate to slow down growth and inflation.

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EUR/USD Six Month Chart as of 2nd April 2024

Tuesday, 2nd of April, European Manufacturing PMI – the European Union and Great Britain will release their business readings today. The results will demonstrate insights regarding sentiment. Financial institutions are worried the European Central Bank and Bank of England may have to consider lowering their interest rates before the Federal Reserve. The EUR/USD and GBP/USD will react to the results.

Tuesday, 2nd of April, U.S Federal Reserve FOMC Members – there will be appearances throughout the day in the U.S from various Federal Reserve members who will make the case for their monetary policy outlooks. It should be noted that Jerome Powell will be speaking on Wednesday. The JOLTS Job Openings will come out before the FOMC members speak. While the JOLTS report will not cause earth shattering reactions, the jobs data is the beginning of the parade regarding employment statistics for this week.

Wednesday, 3rd of April, U.S ISM Services PMI – taking into account the Manufacturing report came in stronger than expected on Monday, the Services data will be watched by financial institutions. If this report is better than anticipated, USD sellers will not rest easy. The ADP Non-Farm Employment Change data will also be released on this day.

Thursday, 4th of April, U.S Weekly Unemployment Claims – the Federal Reserve has been counting on employment strength to erode based on their notion that higher interest rates would create ‘lagging’ reactions in the jobs sector. Jerome Powell has said the Fed is anticipating weaker employment data. The results from the weekly report will not be as significant Friday’s data, but should be given attention by day traders in Forex.

Friday, 5th of April, U.S Non-Farm Employment Change and Average Hourly Earnings – the climax for speculators this week will be these jobs numbers from the States. If the numbers produce less hiring than expected this would help USD bearish momentum. Wages will also prove crucial regarding behavioral sentiment for financial institutions. Simply put, the Federal Reserve is anticipating that weaker employment numbers are going to be seen, if this doesn’t happen it might cause major volatility in Forex going into the weekend.

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Forex Volatility and Coming Data Attractions for this Week

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

Forex Volatility and Coming Data Attractions for this Week

Nervous trading results have hurt many day traders and likely financial institutions too, as behavioral sentiment in Forex gets blindsided by rather mixed U.S data and the Federal Reserve not giving a definitive answer regarding monetary policy. The violent trading in the USD last week was expected, but the turbulence that many Forex pairs experienced on Thursday and Friday of last week was rather vicious. For all the perceived sophistication of Forex markets via financial institutions, the trading results last week point to a definite fear of the unknown.

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USD/JPY Five Day Chart as of 25th March 2024

While the Bank of Japan finally changed its interest rate policy and moved to a Policy Rate of 0.10% early last week, this did not create selling momentum in the USD/JPY. The Federal Reserve’s dangling of potential interest rates to come this year caused temporary weakness in the USD, but as financial institutions and their clients looked at the prospects for a more dovish Fed they apparently became unimpressed as the days passed.

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WTI Crude Oil Six Month Chart as of 25th March 2024

The Fed seems to be betting on weaker jobs numbers developing, and there has been data which points to part-time jobs increasing, and full-time jobs becoming harder to find in the States. Jerome Powell said last week that if jobs numbers start to show weakness that the Fed would be willing to begin cutting interest rates even if inflation remains sticky. Lagging economic data correlations have not eased the Fed’s problems.

The Fed has also admitted inflation in housing, transportation and food remains problematic. WTI Crude Oil spent much of last week above 80.00 USD per barrel as its price has begun to show signs of rising incrementally again; and there is little the Fed can do about more expensive energy costs should they be seen. Higher costs for logistics will not make anything cheaper. Pricier mortgages, more expensive rent and insurance rates for cars and gasoline is creating serious knock on effects.

And for the sake of acknowledging the screaming prices in Cocoa, please have a look at the chart below which should explain why your chocolate products are going to be more expensive in the coming months. The price of the most delicious commodity in the world has tripled in less than a year’s time and is around 8931.0 USD per metric ton as of this writing.

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Cocoa One Year Chart as of 25th March 2024

Gold turned in a violent week of trading too as it reached 2224.00 last Wednesday, only to fall back to a known value around 2165.00. Day traders are dealing with violent cycles in Forex because sustained trends have been nearly impossible to find. While U.S equity indices are fighting upwards, speculators who are afraid of heights are likely being cautious if they are betting merely on the daily results from the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and Dow Jones 30 instead of investing for the long-term.

This week’s coming data from the U.S is important, financial institutions are already dealing with plenty of noise, and they will have to be careful regarding their interpretations regarding the coming economic statistics. Meaning day traders who are speculating in all financial assets should use risk taking tactics that are planned significantly in advance.

Monday, 25th of March, U.S New Home Sales – a slight gain is expected, but mortgage rates continue to shadow the housing sector and cause concerns.

Tuesday, 26th of March, U.S Consumer Confidence via the Conference Board – the reading is anticipating a slight increase. Consumer numbers from the U.S have come in mixed recently. A stronger result than estimated might not be welcomed by traders with bearish sentiment regarding the USD. The Fed wants its cake and to eat it too, they would like to see weaker consumer numbers and a soft economic downturn. If U.S shoppers remain confident this could help sustain inflation. It should be noted too, that Core Durable Goods Orders data will be released one and a half hours before the Consumer Confidence numbers.

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AUD/USD Six Month Chart as of 25th March 2024.

Wednesday, 27th of March, Australia Consumer Price Index – inflation numbers are expected to come in slightly higher than the previous results. Like most other central banks, except for the BoJ, the Reserve Bank of Australia would enjoy seeing inflation erode. The AUD/USD will react to the results certainly, but the price action might prove complicated because of USD centric notions.

Thursday, 28th of March, U.S GDP, Weekly Unemployment Claims, Pending Home Sales, and Revised Consumer Sentiment from the University of Michigan – put bluntly day traders will have to be well prepared for the combination of data from the States. Spectators who do not have large trading accounts and cannot take on a great amount of risk, should seriously consider sitting on the sidelines until most of the data is published. The GDP numbers will be watched carefully, while they are expected to match last month’s total, any surprises will affect the USD immediately in Forex. Weaker growth numbers might cause USD sellers to ignite positions.

However, before traders react too much to the Gross Domestic Product numbers, the Weekly Unemployment data will also impact the financial market. Financial institutions are anticipating a higher amount of unemployment claims this week. Also, at the same time as the growth and jobs numbers, the Final GDP Price Index numbers will be brought forth. The mixture from these reports could cause speculative whiplash.

The housing sector numbers and consumer numbers which come one and a half hours later will finish off a very big day for traders and institutional investors. The wide array of data could make this coming Thursday rather loud, and again rather dangerous for retail traders to participate.

Friday, 29th of March, Japan’s Tokyo Core Consumer Price Index – the inflation numbers are expecting to show a slight decrease to 2.4%. The result should certainly be watched by USD/JPY and GBP/JPY traders. If the number were to come in higher than expected, this could cause additional volatility for the Japanese Yen. Financial institutions seemed to indicate last week they would like to see the BoJ become more aggressive with their Policy Rate.

Friday, 29th of March, U.S Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index – the reading is expected to be below the previous month’s total. Traders should be on the lookout for revisions to past results. Financial institutions know this inflation number is important for the Federal Reserve, but they are concerned the U.S central bank doesn’t have the ability to combat inflation which is not part of the Core number. Energy and food costs which are hurting U.S consumers are not part of this report and likely making the Federal Reserve gun shy regarding monetary policy – which has caused a large part of the USD whipsaw trading results that Forex has experienced.

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Entries for the 22nd of March 2024

by with No Comment AMT MarketsArtificial IntelligenceFeatured Highlights

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Entries for the 22nd of March 2024

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10: Jefferson: Jon Meacham’s Thomas Jefferson The Art of Power provides well written historical and psychological insights concerning one of the U.S Founding Fathers.

9. Shohei Ohtani: Major League Baseball has a gambling scandal. Claims that Ohtani’s interpreter ‘stole’ over 4 million USD from the player to pay off gambling debts beg for questions.

8. Saudi Arabia: The nation has announced it plans on investing 40 billion USD into Artificial Intelligence sector companies via its Public Investment Fund (sovereign wealth fund) and potential business partners.

7. Steve Jobs: Apple’s innovation and tech leadership appears to be weakening as the absence of its deceased leader fades into memory, and competitors grow.

6. Bank of Japan: Monetary policy was finally shifted on Tuesday, an interest rate of 0.10% was instituted, today’s National Core CPI data came in at 2.8%. USD/JPY is currently around 151.400 suggesting financial institutions believe the BoJ Policy Rate may have to be raised again.

5. Gold & Forex: The precious metal challenged 2223.00 USD on Wednesday after the Fed’s FOMC rhetoric but is trading near 2165.00 as of this morning, this as the USD has gotten stronger again producing FX volatility.

4. Hot Chocolate: Cocoa finished yesterday at 8477.0 USD per metric ton, the commodity cost 2880.0 USD one year ago. What and who are manipulating the market?

3. China: Official Foreign Direct Investment statistics are supposed to be released soon. China argues that the fall of foreign investment capital is being reported with bias and not taking into consideration the impact of coronavirus, global monetary policy changes, and cyclical investment fluctuations. However, the FDI numbers remain troublesome and should be watched.

2. Risk Appetite: Major U.S equity indices including the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Dow Jones 30 are challenging record highs as behavioral sentiment remains exuberant, along with Japan’s Nikkei 225.

1. Interest Rates: The Federal Reserve has hinted three interest rate cuts ‘could’ happen this year, this while inflation in housing, transportation and food remain significant for U.S consumers. The Fed seems to be indicating it believes U.S jobs data will get worse. Political shadows hover over the central bank as the presidential election draws closer. The Fed only has 6 FOMC meetings left and appears to be playing with fire.

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Risky Outlooks: Central Banks and Inflation Colliding

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

Risky Outlooks: Central Banks and Inflation Colliding

Most traders and investors begin their pursuit of financial assets with an optimistic perspective. However, the markets and ability to speculate also allows those who have other outlooks to equally participate. The past week once again delivered U.S inflation data which was not anticipated. While last Tuesday’s CPI results came in slightly stronger than expected, it was Thursday’s PPI which provided surprises for many.

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Producer Price Index Warning from AMT for the 14th of March 2024

Yet, some market participants may not have been utterly shocked by the results. Perhaps it was lucky to ‘guess’ the PPI numbers could cause volatility last Thursday, but the ability to be alert and attentive to the possibility of risk should not be ignored. Risk management is important for all traders.

This coming week will continue to be intriguing for day traders as they try to sail through speculative waters which are going to deliver shifting behavioral sentiment tides. A parade of central banks are ready to step into the limelight and they will focus on the word: inflation. Technical traders who wager on support and resistance levels in the coming days should not be scorned, because sideways and volatile trading results are likely.

U.S equity indices began to struggle the middle of last week, Gold has traded lower and Treasury yields have ticked upwards in recent market action, this as sentiment has again had to acknowledge economic outlooks remains problematic. Trading decisions this week will depend not only on what the central banks say and ‘do’, but also focus on the duration that a speculative position intends to be working.

Monday, 18th of March, China Industrial Production – a gain of 7.0% has beaten the expectation per the data already published this morning. Retail Sales numbers came in slightly below estimates, but Fixed Asset Investment numbers were better than anticipated. However, China’s data remains troublesome and the economic path ahead for the nation must overcome deflation and trust issues from international investors. A lack of confidence from the Chinese public about the value of Real Estate and the over abundance of available property is causing major headwinds economically.

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EUR/USD Six Month Chart as of 18th March 2024

Monday, 18th of March, E.U Final Core Consumer Price Index – the European Union will release crucial inflation data. An expected gain of 3.1% is the estimate. While this data release is not considered vital by many investors, the inflation statistics should be watched. The EUR/USD has produced mixed results the past four months as shifting behavioral sentiment due to battling perceptions regarding central bank policy outlooks converge.

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USD/JPY Six Month Chart as of 18th March 2024

Tuesday, 19th of March, Bank of Japan – the BoJ will deliver their Monetary Policy Statement and Policy Rate. While no numerical change is expected from the BoJ, signs for a change in rhetoric will be looked for as central bank observers try to read the tea leaves. The Japanese economy is within an intriguing spot, there have been signs of improvement, but the Bank of Japan is likely to remain on a conservative path regarding negative interest rates for the moment. The USD/JPY remains within the higher realms of its price range as the currency pair grapples with global inflation outlooks.

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AUD/USD Six Month Chart as of 18th March 2023

Tuesday, 19th of March, Reserve Bank of Australia – the RBA is expected to parrot the pronouncements of the other central banks as they point to stubborn inflation and ‘improving yet lackluster’ economic outlook. Trading in the AUD/USD has been choppy and the volatility is likely to continue within the known price range.

Tuesday, 19th of March, Canada CPI – the Consumer Price Index data is anticipated to show inflation remains remains sticky in the ‘Northern Tundra’. The CPI report from Canada should be monitored because of the strong relationship between the U.S and Canadian economies. The USD/CAD will react to any surprises.

Wednesday, 20th of March, U.K Consumer Price Index – yet another important inflation report. Great Britain has been a ‘poster child’ regarding stagflation. The ugly word is not something central banks, nor governments want to discuss, but the simple truth is that problematic inflation and limited growth equal stagflation. The statistics from the U.K should be examined. The economic health of Great Britain is often a solid reflection of global conditions.

Wednesday, 20th of March, U.S Federal Reserve – the Federal Funds Rate, FOMC Statement and Fed Press Conference will be focal points for investors. Except importantly, not much is likely to be said be Jerome Powell that isn’t known already. Inflation reports from the U.S have highlighted stubborn higher prices. U.S economic numbers regarding manufacturing and consumer confidence have started to turn lower, but the Fed is not going to change its policy this week. Talk about ‘becoming’ dovish will be heard, but the U.S central bank still wants to see more proof that inflation can erode before they start to cut interest rates in the mid-term.

Thursday, 21st of March, E.U Manufacturing and Services PMI, readings will come from France, Germany and the U.K via the Purchasing Managers Index results. Most of the data will likely continue to point to lackluster outlooks, only the Services PMI from the U.K is expected to offer a glimmer of hope regarding ‘expansion’. If the Flash numbers come in worse than expected this could cast a shadow over behavioral sentiment for European investors.

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GBP/USD Six Month Chart as of 18th March 2024

Thursday, 21st of March, Bank of England – the BoE is likely to keep its Official Bank Rate within place and their pronouncements via the Monetary Policy Summary may sound like a replica of the U.S Federal Reserve. Inflation and growth will be spoken about and the BoE will try its best to paint an optimistic picture. The GBP/USD will react to the gyrations, but the range of the currency pair will have already seen tests in the preceding days. The past four months have produced a value as of the 18th of March, that is hovering slightly above late November and early December 2023 prices.

Friday, 22nd of March, U.K Retail Sales – a negative result of minus -0.3% is expected. The retail data will certainly be watched, but following the massive week of central bank statements and data which have already been published, this number may prove to be rather anti-climatic unless there is a massive surprise.

Friday, 22nd of March, E.U ECB and U.S Fed – Officials from both central banks will engage in a variety of speeches in Europe and the U.S, but again after the week’s worth of central bank rhetoric which has been heard, investors are unlikely to react much to these soundbites from members of the European Central Bank and Federal Reserve. Existing behavioral sentiment which has been produced in the dynamic days beforehand should remain the central theme as investors go into the weekend.