Either bin-Salman or the Islamic Republic will Survive
Opinion: The following article is commentary and its views are solely those of the author. This article was first published the 15th of September via The Angry Demagogue.
The Houthis have not only pushed back and regained ground lost in the Saudi offensive against them in Yemen, they have taken Saudi backed ground and are moving forward. They seem to be moving at will and are now in total control of the Bab al Mandab Straits and are looking to surround and then capture the port of Aden. According to Or ben Yehezkel of the Telegram site 301 Ha’Olam Ha’aravi, which consists of a group who are fluent in Arabic and Farsi, the Houthis are moving quickly and if they take the port of Aden, the main port of Saudi backed Yemen, they will organize, along with the Shiite militia’s in Iraq to invade Saudi Arabia.
Although they don’t have an air force, the Houthis have managed to gain ground against an air force with over 220 advanced fighters, 8 AWACS for air coordination and over 20 refueling aircraft. With their missiles and drones, the Houthis have managed to cause severe damage to Saudi Air Force bases and have all but neutralized Saudi air superiority.
Iran’s Last Stand or a Humbled Saudi Arabia?
It seems that the Islamic Republic has given up on getting Israel out of Lebanon and saving Hezbollah and instead is concentrating on Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States with the goal of forcing the U.S out of the region. If they do in fact take Aden, the Houthis can go up the coast to Mecca and Madinah and meet Iraqi-Shiite militias there as they attack across northern Saudi Arabia. This will force the Saudis to defend what is as important for them, reputation-wise, as oil – and that is the holy cities of Mecca and Madinah. For the Houthis the coastal route is do-able. From Iraq it is a 20 hour drive from Iraq to Mecca (a bit shorter to Madinah) through harsh dessert terrain – although there are paved roads. Alternatively, the Iraqi militias could attack in the Gulf area (either going through or avoiding Kuwait) while the Houthis rush to Mecca, forcing the Saudis to split forces.
For the U.S, ground attacks in Saudi Arabia proper, putting American bases and troops at risk, will force them to intervene so as to save U.S bases as well as Saudi honor. It is not that the Iranian Islamists think they can take over Saudi Arabia, only that they can embarrass it into submission. In the Arab and Moslem world, pride is more important than fact and a near defeat might embarrass the ibn-Saud kingdom enough to rattle its self confidence. The Mecca Accords between Turkey, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia have shown their impotence as neither the Turkish nor the Pakistani Air Forces have been seen over the Saudi desert (although it seems that bin-Salman asked CENTCOM to ask Israel to help them).
However, the real goal of the Houthi-Iranian offensive is to force the United States out of the Gulf. No matter what people are saying the blockade and other economic measures are having a strong effect on Iran and its regime. This does not mean it is close to falling, but they obviously feel a need to change the conversation and to use outside pressure to bring some relief to the country and eventually to remove the American “menace”.
An article in The Free Press (whose headline is more optimistic than the article itself) correctly states that the Houthis are trying to lessen their dependence on Iran, but that does not mean that most of the orders are not still coming from Iran. It is not the Houthi’s themselves that are a threat but the Houthis as an Iranian proxy that is the danger. A Houthi semi-state in western Yemen is a thorn in the side of the world, but it is very different than an Iranian controlled western Yemen. Currently, there is no reason to believe that Iran is not controlling events in Yemen just like they controlled events in Lebanon. Israel’s “ceasefire offensive” against Hezbollah, taking their major command centers and all but pushing them out of their strongholds in southern Lebanese Shiite villages has shaken the Iranian leadership and weakened their hold on events in the Middle East. They only have Yemen, the Persian Gulf itself (the Straits of Hormuz) and some Iraqi militias left to take the pressure off them.
Alternatively, if the Houthis attack fails, could this be Iran’s last stand? A defeat at the hands of the Saudis, coming right after the Hezbollah defeat at the hands of Israel will leave Iran with only one pressure point – one that the U.S Navy has blocked. While they are causing some discomfort in the West via rising oil prices, they are causing more discomfort in their ally China and even more in their own country.
Last week we indicated that there are four things that need to happen in order to put in place the possibility, let’s upgrade that to the probability of regime change. The Islamic Republic understands this better than the Western press. The first is nearly complete and that is the destruction of Hezbollah. The second is the American blockade and economic D-day which are in full force but need time to work. The third is the defeat of the Houthis and the last one is an intensive U.S (or U.S and Israeli) bombing campaign combined, possibly, with the taking of Persian Gulf islands.
If the Saudi’s lose, this will endanger the entire U.S plan and may even bring down the bin-Salman rule in Saudi Arabia as he can be replaced by more conservative Princes if his plans fail and he embarrasses the Kingdom in front of the Moslem world. This is a best-case scenario for the suffocating Islamic Republic and could lead to their resurgence in the region.
Iran knows this well and the Houthi-Saudi war will either lead to the downfall of the Islamic Republic or a very humbled and maybe changed Saudi kingdom. A fight to a standstill with the Houthis remaining an Iranian proxy means that the other three legs of the plan – the destruction of Hezbollah, economic D-day and U.S bombing effort will need to be pursued quickly and violently. As Israel has painfully learned, fighting to a standstill just gives your terrorist enemies time to regroup. Without a Houthi defeat we will be where we are today and the U.S goal of ridding the region of the Islamic Republic of Iran will be much more difficult. Much more is at stake in the Houthi-Saudi war than people believe.
Disclaimer: the views expressed in this opinion article are solely those of the author, and not necessarily the opinions reflected by angrymetatraders.com or its associated parties.
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