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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Morsels for 5th of January 2024

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Morsels for 5th of January 2024

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10. Book: Truth to Power – My Three Years Inside Eskom by Andre de Ruyter, an insider’s account about South Africa’s public energy company amidst corruption, mismanagement and scandal.

9. NBA: Last night’s Milwaukee and San Antonio game was the first ‘match’ of Giannis Antetokounmpo and Victor Wembanyama. Basketball is global and spectacular.

8. Noise: Clickbait media headlines about nervous results in financial markets this week have been exaggerated.

7. Horn of Africa: Ethiopia and Somalia are arguing about a port passage through ‘Somaliland’, astute eyes should be kept on the region and Egypt.

6. Diplomacy: U.S foreign policy has delivered poor statesmanship with India recently, allowing Russia to reinitiate its longstanding relationship with the nation.

5. Taiwan: Presidential election is on the 13th of January. President Tsai Ing-wen is not eligible to run again because she has now served two terms.

4. USD/JPY has ebbed higher and next week’s results promise to be rather insightful regarding the outlooks of financial institutions. Reversals coming?

3. China: Economic concerns in the Asian giant continue to mount as deflation threatens to become intractable and investors fret.

2. Data: U.S jobs numbers coming today, the results are anticipated to be slightly weaker. A reaction in the broad markets is certain, but it is full market volume next week which will set the tone.

1. Outlook: Anxious short-term trading results from the past two weeks are likely going to be confronted by optimism and risk appetite next week. Who will win?

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Viewpoints for the 29th of Dec.

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBusinessFeatured Highlights

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Viewpoints for the 29th of Dec.

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10. Book: Cargill: Trading the World’s Grain by Wayne G. Broehl, Jr., a book that folks interested in physical commodities may find interesting.

9. Music: A Night in Tunisia played by Charlie Parker and Miles Davis on The Complete Savoy & Dial Master Takes.

8. NBA: Detroit Pistons have now lost 28 straight basketball games. Will the team get a participation trophy at the end of this season?

7. Post-Quantum: While ‘Artificial Intelligence’ grabs headlines, ‘post-quantum cryptography’ is a phrase and reality that corporations will need to learn increasingly.

6. Behavioral Sentiment: Risk appetite has remained firm during this holiday week, which may spark additional optimistic trading banter in January as trends are wagered upon.

5. U.S Treasuries: Yields have continued to move lower, and dovish outlooks regarding the U.S Federal Reserve inside many financial institutions may increase speculative zeal.

4. Gold: The precious metal remains near highs and the price of 2100.00 USD is hovering above, will this level start to be challenged and penetrated?

3. JPY and NZD: Both currencies remain bullish as they recover from long-term USD strength, this while mid-term price realms are being firmly challenged. Technical traders with long-term outlooks may want to start examining one year charts.

2. U.S Equities: S&P 500 on the cusp of record highs, the Nasdaq 100 is at apex values – while the Nasdaq Composite remains bullish, and the Dow Jones 30 continues to create new heights.

1. 2024: A prosperous and peaceful New Year is wished for all.

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Shohei Gets Shown the Money: Dodgers sign Ohtani for 700M

by with No Comment BaseballBusinessFeatured Highlights

Shohei Gets Shown the Money: Dodgers sign Ohtani for 700M

Shohei Ohtani signed a contract yesterday with the Los Angeles Dodgers for 700 million USD over the next ten years. You probably know that already. Here’s the thing, the Dodgers are actually going to make much more money from Ohtani than he will make from them. There are always questions about a player’s health and ability to last the lenght of a long-term contract, but the reasons why this was a good deal for the Dodgers are strong.

Yes, Ohtani does have a track record of getting hurt once in a while. He will likely not be able to pitch during 2024 as his arm heals from a throwing injury from the recently played MLB season. Yet, he will hit, and he will likely do this at a significant level, which could help propel the Dodgers into playoff and championship contention. He is 29 years old and only turns 30 in July of 2024, which signals he has a handful of years ahead with a potential for excellent performances. While playing for the Los Angeles Angels since 2018, Shohei Ohtani has not been able to showcase his talents in the MLB playoffs. That will certainly change when playing for the Dodgers.

Let’s not forget Ohtani’s performance in the 2023 World Baseball Classic. He struck out Angel teammate, Mike Trout, to win the Championship for Japan in an absolutely electric moment in March while defeating team USA. Ohtani has and can produce big under the spotlight. He has consistently lived up to and exceeded expectations during his MLB career. It isn’t often players are compared to Babe Ruth in the same sentence, a comparison that was laughable when any name was mentioned with the famous Yankee (and Red Sox before), discussing Ohtani’s ability to pitch and hit puts him politely into the conversation. Ohtani will have to achieve World Series Championships however to solidify this juxtaposition.

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The money being paid to Ohtani may seem obscene to we, the mere mortals of this world, but let’s take a look at some numbers. Let’s consider the additional advertising money the Dodgers will now make being able to market into Japan, and perhaps other nations that love baseball in Asia. Clearly there will be heaps of money made on selling jerseys, not only with Ohtani’s name spelled in English, but Japanese as well. Sponsorships, licenses and merchandising contract costs and values will jump through the roof for companies wanting to be affiliated with the Dodgers.

There is also the worth of the Los Angeles Dodgers baseball team, which likely just added to their price tag if ‘suiters’ want to try and buy the club, which in the spring of 2023 had an estimated value of 4.8 billion USD. Having Ohtani in the midst of Los Angeles will make this number jump substantially. The Dodgers television and advertising rights are massive already, and can grow larger because of the money they will charge during the broadcasts for commercials. The Dodgers reportably have a 8.35 billion USD deal for their regional broadcast rights with Spectrum SportsNet LA – Time Warner Cable already.

Dentsu Inc., the advertising and public relations giant in Japan, signed a six year 275 million USD with Major League Baseball to sell the rights of MLB games into Japan starting in 2024. However, the Dodgers who are already followed in Japan will certainly add to their exposure among MLB baseball fans in the nation who will want to watch Ohtani play. Major League Baseball and Dentsu are probably thrilled that the Japanese star has signed with the Dodgers and the prospect of more international media attention.

Baseball fans that love the Dodgers and for those that hate them, there is also the knowledge that Ohtani has apparently agreed to defer a huge amount of his contract until year ten. This means the Dodgers will be left room via MLB’S Competitive Balance Tax to operate effectively and still have money to spend on other highly prized players. The Dodgers can go after Japanese pitching ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto with additional piles of cash, who will certainly listen now that Ohtani has joined Los Angeles.

Lastly in terms of numbers, the contract with Ohtani is staggering. Yet there are other contracts in sports that are eye opening. Jon Rahm, the golfer, apparently inked an individual deal with LIV Golf last week which will be worth around 500 million USD to play on the highly cash infused ‘Saudi’ tour instead of the PGA. There has certainly been inflation in the world, but the money being tossed around for ‘players’ is gigantic in the NFL, IPL – Indian Premier League Cricket, assorted football (soccer) leagues globally, Formula 1, NBA, LIV Golf, and MLB which make many contracts questionable. But again, Ohtani may prove to be quite a steal for the Dodgers regarding their ability to make money via this contract.

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Shots for Friday the 3rd of Nov.

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Shots for Friday the 3rd of Nov.

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10. NBA: Welcome to Victor Wembanyama’s world. VW’s 5th game as a Spur was historic last night.

9. South Africa: The Springboks Rugby World Cup victory is helping unifying the nation and giving all its citizens a hope for better days.

8. Book: The Gulag Archipelago by Aleksandr I. Solzhenitsyn.

7. Crypto: Sam Bankman-Fried found guilty on all counts. Yet, Bitcoin is near 34,600.00 USD per coin.

6. Risks: Signs of appetite as U.S equity indices have moved higher, and U.S Treasury yields have declined.

5. Gold: The precious metal still lingering near 2000.00 USD and may attract bearish speculative positions.

4. Middle East: Global financial institutions appear to have dealt with the noise.

3. U.S Jobs Reports: Non-Farm Employment Change numbers and Average Hourly Earnings inflation data will be published today and shake markets.

2. Federal Reserve: The U.S central bank may have reached the end of it interest rates hikes cycle.

1. USD: The world’s reserve currency remains suspiciously strong and if it is a relatively calm today and this weekend, day traders may begin to embrace selling wagers.

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NBA Draft Lottery and Victor Wembanyama #1

by with No Comment BasketballCultureFeatured Highlights

NBA Draft Lottery and Victor Wembanyama #1

You have likely heard plenty of talk about Victor Wembanyama if you are a basketball fan. Perhaps you still do not believe the potential talent the youngster may bring to the NBA for the 2023-2024 season, but rest assured NBA teams with the capability of landing the ‘definite’ number one pick in this year’s draft are paying attention.

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Whoever finishes with the Top Pick in this Year’s Draft will be Celebrating

The NBA lottery will be held on the 16th of May, and there are a handful of teams that have the potential to land VW with reasonable odds. Detroit, Houston, San Antonio, Charlotte and Portland have the best chance of landing the first pick in the lottery due to their respective finishes. There are an additional handful of teams with a very limited chance of miraculously coming out on top and winding up with the number one pick after those teams, but their respective odds are slim.

No one is going to consider trading the rights to this year’s NBA top pick. The team that is lucky enough to land the rights to Victor Wembanyama is going to become a more valuable franchise instantly when the lottery order is known. Likely by an extra half a billion USD, because television, merchandise and advertising rights will increase demand immediately in all facets of business for the lucky team. And Victor Wembanyama knows his financial value too.

The run up to the LeBron James draft in 2003 was special and teams anticipated the results nervously. Somehow and ‘magically’ the Cleveland Cavaliers finished first in the draft lottery. However, the Cavaliers did have a 22.50% chance of landing the top pick, even though conspiracy minded NBA fans still find it more than coincidental that the Ohio native found his way to the Cavaliers so easily while ‘fresh’ out of high school.

This year’s top three teams have a 14.0% chance each, Charlotte the number four team has a 12.5% opportunity, and the Portland Trailblazers have a 10.5% ability. Victor Wembanyama is from France and he has expressed no desire to play for a specific team in the NBA. Outside of the top five teams who could somehow have a ‘lucky star’ strike and land Victor Wembanyama next season are Orlando, Indiana, Washington, Utah, Dallas and a few others with a limited and dwindling chance in the lottery sweepstakes.

Victor Wembanyama’s Draft Rights will Not be Traded to Anyone

If you want hyperbole regarding how good Victor Wembanyama’s NBA ceiling could be, consider that there is likely no NBA player currently playing who could be traded for VW one for one. I am not kidding, this includes Giannis, KD, Steph Curry, Jokic and Joel Embiid. You might scoff and laugh at what has been written with derision, but I am willing to bet the team that lands the top pick for Wembanyama would not be willing to trade his rights, unless not only a Tier 1 top 5 player was offered, but an assortment of draft choices and other players were included too, besides a lot of cash.

Perhaps Wembanyama will fail miserably, perhaps he will get hurt in the future, but his ability to be productive in the NBA is hypothetically off the charts. I believe he will be one of the most productive NBA players of all-time and I have watched a ‘bit’ of basketball. A plausible combination of Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and Kevin Durant as the hybrid is the amount of potential to consider. Wembanyama is a legitimate 7’4″ inches, he can dribble, shoot, run, cut, react quickly – twitch movement, moves his feet well and is balanced. He also plays defense while looking a bit like a praying mantis and possesses a ‘killer’ mentality. There is no doubt Victor Wembanyama will go first in the draft which will be held on the 22nd of June. The real story is who will land his rights next week on Tuesday, the 16th of May. You will hear the city that lands the top pick roar.

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Before Victor: The BV Year and Outlook

by with No Comment BasketballCultureSports

Before Victor: The BV Year and Outlook

By now almost every basketball fan knows who Victor Wembanyama is if they pay attention to the NBA. Simply type the first three letters ………..Vic…..into your Google search and his name will appear. The young man is 19 years old. He will certainly be the number one choice in this year’s NBA draft. He stands a legitimate 7’4″.

Folks are still creating adjectives and nicknames to give Wembanyama, and sincerely it is up to him to decide how he should be addressed. However, here is one prediction that I believe will legitimately occur over the next few years, the creation of the term BV in the NBA.

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Wembanyama’s impact offensively and defensively will change the NBA. He is likely to take on a number 4 role positionally while playing offense the first few years, and will certainly be used as a center on defense.

He can handle the ball and shoot from outside. Wembanyama’s ability to dribble in traffic allows him greater mobility to drive towards the hoop. He can clearly cause chaos in the paint offensively with a threat of dunks, put backs and rebounding. He is an effective passer when distributing the ‘rock’ to his teammates.

He will immediately make other teams change the way they attack and play offensively against him. The game of basketball has evolved into one that looks for open space, and shots from the outside dominate. One consideration is that teams may go into a hyper induced outside game in which they try to put four guys (maybe five) outside of the three point circle. This to try and keep VW away from the ball as much as possible as he plays defense, attempting to get him out of position.

Anybody with the ball inside of the arc has the potential to have their shot blocked by VW. Wembanyama’s closing speed, getting to an offensive player considering a shot, is almost always one step away. Meaning he can quickly attack, extend his arms, and either block an attempted shot or simply make a player change his mind and stop the motion of the offensive scheme.

Wembanyama is not God, but he can be a basketball god if he stays healthy. You have been warned. He is doing well in European basketball which has a smaller court, and more grabbing and pushing compared to the NBA. Whoever has the luck to draft Wembanyama likely has a generational player. The magic within all of this is the fact the young man seems to be genuinely a good person.

In this year of BV – Before Victor – basketball the East looks like it has three teams that can make a run towards the Championship round including the Bucks, Celtics and 76er’s. The West is full of teams with question marks regarding health and the ability to coalesce into competing units. Phoenix and Denver are the favorites, but potential problems lurk on both teams.

In the Western shadows looms Memphis which is being compared to the ‘Bad Boys’ of Detroit from the 1980’s, but the Grizzlies need to win something first. Due to their ‘talking’ and desire to try and intimidate folks – it would help if they actually won something significant and advanced to at least the Western Championships this year, which they likely won’t. Ja Morant has plenty of talent, all-world, but he also has put a target on the back of his team by talking a lot of smack.

Perhaps more interesting than the Championship run which is developing, is the race to the bottom in order to get into the NBA Draft lottery for the chance to take Victor Wembanyama. Because it is likely that the winner via percentages of probability, that one of the worst performing 5 teams will get the opportunity to change franchise history. How good is VW? Whoever gets him is likely landing an all-star during the 2023-2024 season, a giant marketing tool worth hundreds of millions USD, while creating global brand for a club and the ability to make playoff runs very quickly of stature.