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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Blossoms for the 31st of May 2024

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Blossoms for the 31st of May 2024

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10. European Supremacy: The NBA Championship between Boston and Dallas is set to begin on the 6th of June. If the Dallas Mavericks win, it will mean Giannis Antetokounmpo in 2021, Nikola Jokic in 2023, and Luka Doncic in 2024 were victors, and are cementing the terrain as the best players.

9. Brisk Breeze: The need for ‘chill’ among AI and server companies isn’t only about attitude. The advent of quantum computing will add to the wintry demands. Vertiv, Asia Vital Components, and Auras Technology are a few of the enterprises in the industrial environment sector helping deliver precision cooling for the technologies to work efficiently.

8. Glitches: Stalled data within the S&P 500 and Dow Jones 30 for their index calculations took place yesterday for nearly one hour, but individual trading within companies via stock prices appears to have been unaffected. Futures trading for the two indices weren’t affected. On Monday the 18th of March, Nasdaq suffered a tech problem that stopped pre-market trading for a couple of hours.

7. OPEC: The cartel will conduct a one day online meeting this coming Sunday. Production levels will be discussed, among other issues. The price of WTI Crude Oil as of this writing is below 78.00 USD per barrel. While news remains stuck in hyperbole from the Middle East, the price of Crude Oil has declined since the first week of April.

6. Conviction: Donald Trump was found guilty in a NYC courtroom yesterday, but the verdict is certain to be appealed. The law of unintended consequences could come into play from the U.S as reactions generate. The perceived notion that ineffectual and non-credible leadership is mounting in the U.S, lends credence to some people around the globe regarding dwindling American exceptionalism.

5. Results: South Africa voting counts will be finalized sometime this weekend, India’s election count will be known on the 4th of June. The unknown outcomes are affecting the USD/ZAR and USD/INR, and more volatility in the currency pairs should be expected early next week.

4. Coincident: GDP results came in around their expectations yesterday. Growth numbers produced a gain of 1.3%, while the GDP Price Index showed a 3.0% climb. The data produced does show the U.S economy is slowing and is another ripple to be considered by analysts and traders.

3. USD/JPY: The Bank of Japan appears to be betting on weaker U.S data to continue, and potential dovish Fed rhetoric on the 12th of June to propel the USD/JPY lower, thus helping the BoJ to remain on the sideline and avoid an intervention for the moment. The BoJ will release their Policy Rate decision on the 14th of June and many eyes will be on the central bank’s Monetary Policy Statement.

2. Inflation: The Core PCE Price Index report outcome today is anticipated to be around the 0.3% ratio. The Federal Reserve pays plenty of attention to this publication and if the number meets the expectation or comes in below it, this could cause a repeat of the Fed’s dovish December 2023 FOMC Statement. Financial institutions have already begun wagering that the Federal Funds Rate could be cut this summer and later again this year. Many assets will react to today’s inflation report.

1. Behavioral Sentiment: Nervous price action has been seen in the equity indices and Forex this week. Investors may have felt they got a little ahead of their risk appetite curve and now appear to be waiting on more solid impetus to reconfirm their outlooks. Choppy price action has certainly been fueled by U.S Treasury yields which increased earlier this week. Losses in the S&P 500, Dow 30 and Nasdaq the past handful of days are now waiting for buyers to reemerge. The question day traders may want to consider is if financial institutions and large investors believe assets will cost less next week, or if prices have now hit worthwhile support levels which will spur on buying today?

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Nibbles for the 1st of December

by with No Comment AMT MarketsAssetsFeatured Highlights

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Nibbles for the 1st of December

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10. Book: Kissinger: 1923 – 1968: The Idealist by Neill Ferguson

9. Music: Clifford Brown and Max Roach Quintet playing Joy Spring.

8. Bitcoin: Curious stubborn trend higher as ETF fever appears to be creating bets on perceived ‘forced’ upwards momentum. BTC/USD now above 38,000.00.

7. Charlie Munger: Passed away earlier this week. Extremely well regarded as a man and helped create the Berskshire Hathaway colossus.

6. Crude Oil: Cash price of WTI Crude Oil remains stable and hovering above mid-term support after OPEC and associates announced voluntary production reductions yesterday.

5. Data: While U.S GDP numbers came in with solid growth statistics on Wednesday, yesterday’s U.S Core Personal Consumption Expenditures results came in below last month’s data showing inflation is eroding.

4. Gold: The precious metal remains above 2000.00 USD in a rather strong fashion, short-term speculation has been vigorous. Caution is advised for day traders.

3. Jerome Powell: The Federal Reserve Chairman will be speaking in Atlanta later today and his comments while participating in a ’roundtable’ discussion could affect behavioral sentiment going into the weekend.

2. USD: Outlooks via tier 1 financial institutions and larger players keeping the ‘greenback’ weaker and near mid-term support against other major currencies, price velocity should be watched.

1. U.S Indices: Dow Jones Industrials touching highs not seen since January 2022. S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite within sight of July 2023 apex levels, and if penetrated upwards would also bring these indices to heights of late 2021 and early 2022, this as risk appetite demonstrates backbone.

You can find more AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous lists in the AngryMetaTraders archive

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FOMO Potential Could Fuel FX and Equities with Calm Winds

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

FOMO Potential Could Fuel FX and Equities with Calm Winds

Traders should not run towards their trading screens as the week begins, steady attitudes and risk taking tactics will be needed. Yet, there may be reasons to get excited. The return of full market volume as U.S financial institutions open and employees get back in their offices after the long holiday weekend needs to be monitored. The term ‘FOMO’ – fear of missing out – may be heard this week if U.S equity indices continue to shine, Forex demonstrates additional USD weakness and U.S Treasury yields decline further. There will be a whirlwind of economic data and opportunities for ‘official’ rhetoric in the days ahead.

Day traders should ask questions about the results which were seen technically via their charts last week, assets all struggled to find momentum last Thursday and Friday. And earlier in the week many Forex pairs produced choppy results. But here’s the thing, behavioral sentiment was rather muted as large speculators and financial institutions understood that trading volumes would be light – this caused strong bursts and sudden reversals early – but by the end of the week rather calm waters.

Many trading houses could increase their speculative positions this week based on their outlooks. Financial institutions clearly have believed the USD had been overbought and the ability of the GBP, EUR and JPY to gain in the past two weeks are possible signs large ‘players’ remain positioned for further USD weakness.

Equity markets have done well in November, but the major indices including the Dow 30, S&P 500 and the NASDAQ Composite all started to garner strength in the last week of October. Mid-term highs are being achieved in U.S indices. The parade of buyers may not be done quite yet.

Economic data results are vital for day traders to understand because they provide insights into the thinking of financial institutions regarding their outlooks. It is not the trading of small speculators that moves markets, it is the power of large cash positions which drives results. Questions regarding where the cash is going and the allotments financial institutions are pursuing is a key to understanding how the markets are going to react. This information is not readily available for day traders, instead smaller speculators need to try to comprehend outlooks regarding positioning and timeframes of larger players.

Part of the FOMO factor could develop as financial institutions begin to question how much money they will hold in money market accounts for their clients. While the practices of large investors are always comforted by the notion they are making guaranteed returns, the pursuit of better results and the desire for risk appetite does drive behavioral sentiment when bullish markets are being exhibited.

This week will be intriguing as full volumes return to the marketplace today and tomorrow. From today until the 13th of December FOMC Statement from the U.S Federal Reserve, results in the financial markets could be speculative. Financial markets are starting to signal that optimism is creeping back into the mindsets of large investors who may believe mid-term economic scenarios have improved.

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EUR/USD Six Month Chart as of 27th November 2023

Monday, 27th of November, E.U. ECB President Lagarde – the European Central Bank leader will deliver thoughts regarding monetary policy to the European Parliament. While the E.U still is sufferning from recessionary numbers, economic data last week came in slightly better than estimated. However, the EUR/USD remains in a USD centric mode and this will continue this week.

Tuesday, 28th of November, U.S Consumer Confidence via the Conference Board, the numbers are expected to be slightly weaker than last month’s outcome. U.S economic data has been showing signs of being weaker than expected, last week’s Core Durable Goods Orders report followed this trend.

While this may be read as bad news by some people, day traders should note – particularly Forex speculators – that slightly weaker U.S economic data currently is music to the ears of many financial institutions because they believe the Federal Reserve will have to shift their rhetoric from aggressive to neutral.

Tuesday, U.S Federal Reserve Officials – a slew of FOMC members will be speaking at various events during the day. The Fed likes to give clues to the financial markets regarding their outlooks and perceptions regarding interest rates. The Federal Reserve has certainly paused their interest rate hikes.

The question now is if the U.S central bank will start to say while they remain diligent regarding inflation, that they now see signs of a ‘soft landing’ emerging within the U.S economy. If the Fed speakers begin to sound not only neutral, but offer hints of becoming potentially dovish by the spring of 2024 regarding monetary policy, this could spur USD selling.

Wednesday, 29th of November, Germany Preliminary Consumer Price Index – the inflation results are expected to be slightly weaker than last month’s outcome. German economic data has been recessionary, financial institutions know this, what large traders would like to see is stable results that are not wildly surprising.

Wednesday, 29th of November, U.S Preliminary Gross Domestic Product – the growth numbers are expected to show a slight increase. Equity markets, Forex and commodity markets will react to these results. The U.S economy has been surprisingly strong regarding growth. A slight slowdown regarding the GDP numbers would not be the worse thing, if growth numbers did come in below the estimate this could fuel additional USD weakness.

But traders should not get overly ambitious and bet against the GDP numbers. If the expected outcome of 5.0% is delivered, equity markets could use this as additional fuel. The number is sure to be a talking point, but unless their is a massive divergence it may simply be a way to create noise for ‘talking heads’, when in fact behavioral sentiment regarding risk appetite remains optimistic.

Thursday, 30th of November, China Manufacturing PMI – the result is forecast to show a slight improvement. China economic numbers remain a concern, particularly from the real estate sector which is suffering and is causing cascading troubles on other sectors within the nation. Global demand for products, as an example from European countries, that are suffering recessionay pressures also is slowing China’s manufacturing. A slight improvement would be welcomed by global investors participating in China financial assets.

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WTI Crude Oil Six Month Chart as of 27th November 2023

Thursday, 30th of November, OPEC and JMMC Conference – the oil producers will certainly make their policies known and energy markets will react to the news and rumors. Commodity traders should note that WTI Crude Oil, Brent, Natural Gas and Unleaded Gasoline markets have been under price pressure and important mid-term cash support levels are in sight.

Thursday, 30th of November, U.S Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Index – this inflation reading is important and should be watched. The result is expected to be weaker than the previous month. If the outcome matches the anticipated reading of 0.2% or less, this could spur additional USD weakness. The Core PCE Index is an important reading for the U.S Federal Reserve regarding its inflation insights.

Friday, 1st of December, U.S Fed Chairman Jerome Powell – the Fed leader will be speaking at a college event in Atlanta. Traders should remember that about ten days before the Fed’s pause in November regarding its FOMC Statement, Powell delivered a large hint regarding monetary policy. The Fed Chairman’s comments will come late on Friday and could cause a reaction early next week if Powell’s remarks fuel more Forex speculation.

Additional note – the U.S jobs numbers will not be released this Friday, the Non-Farm Employment Change and Average Hourly Earnings results will be published on the 8th of December.

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Interest Rates, Fireworks, OPEC, Fed Minutes, and Jobs Data

by with No Comment AMT MarketsCentral BanksFeatured Highlights

Interest Rates, Fireworks, OPEC, Fed Minutes, and Jobs Data

Global day traders will certainly be able to work early this week, but they should note the 4th of July holiday in the U.S will deliver rather light volumes Monday and Tuesday. Markets in the U.S will be open on the 3rd, but speculators need to understand that price action may be flat and then experience sudden bursts of energy. Financial institutions in the U.S could be rather quiet until Wednesday.

Monday, the 3rd of July, European Manufacturing PMI – data will come from across Europe and is expected to show the sector remains rather lackluster. France, Germany, the U.K and others will issue reports.

Monday, the 3rd of July, U.S Manufacturing PMI via the ISM – the Purchasing Managers Index numbers are expected to produce a slight rise, but remain under the level of 50. However, any increase compared to last month’s outcome will be an additional sign the U.S economy is battling on and would give the U.S Federal Reserve another reason to lean towards an interest rate hike later this month.

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AUD/USD One Month Chart as of 2nd July 2023

Tuesday, the 4th of July, Australia RBA Cash Rate and Statement – while some analysts assume no interest rate hike will be delivered in July because the CPI has shown a slight downturn, there seems to be rather large whispers another hike of 0.25% could be added from the Reserve Bank of Australia. AUD/USD traders certainly need to pay attention, and folks with limited funds should stay on the sidelines until the decision is released.

Tuesday, the 4th of July, U.S Independence Day – banking holiday.

Wednesday, the 5th of July, China Caixin Services PMI – economic data from China has certainly shown signs of downward pressure. A slight decrease is the expected result.

Wednesday, 5th of July, OPEC Meetings – the energy cartel will be conducting its official get together in Vienna, Austria and oil traders should be on alert for any news and decisions made public that could affect the energy sector.

Wednesday, 5th of July, U.S FOMC Meeting Minutes – the publication will provide insights into the Federal Reserve’s decision to ‘pause’ interest rate hikes last month, but could also add fuel to the notion the U.S central bank remains within an aggressive stance regarding inflation. Forex markets will react to the report.

Thursday, 6th of July, U.S Services PMI via ISM – the statistics will be monitored closely due to the rather positive outcome from the GDP report last week, which showed the U.S economy remains rather resilient. A positive outcome in the Services numbers will add further evidence for the Federal Reserve to remain hawkish.

Friday, 7th of July, U.S Jobs Numbers – the employment data will culminate as the week comes to an end with the Non-Farm Employment Change and Average Hourly Earnings figures. Yes, on the day before, Thursday, traders will also see the JOLTS numbers and weekly Unemployment Claims. However, it is the Non-Farm and wages data that financial institutions will largely react upon depending on the outcomes. Because it is a ‘holiday’ week in the U.S, the reports may find a muted response, but financial institutions will use the information to gauge their mid-term outlooks and position their assets including Forex and bonds.