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U.S National Security, Part 2: Regional Alliances – Europe

by with No Comment Behavioral SentimentFeatured HighlightsIndia

U.S National Security, Part 2: Regional Alliances - Europe

Opinion: The following article is commentary and its views are solely those of the author. This article was first published the 25th of December via The Angry Demagogue.

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As we continue our tour of the administration’s National Security Strategy we will stay with “part III: What Are America’s Available Means to Get What We Want?” and move to the sixth bullet point: “A broad network of alliances, with treaty allies and partners in the world’s most strategically important regions” and work through the important regions that the strategy documents – Asia, Europe, the Mideast and Africa. For good or for bad we will need to split these regions up since the key point is forming coalitions that can handle their actual region. Sweden can’t be part of a coalition to protect Italy’s interests in the Mediterranean and Japan won’t be protecting Singapore.

Some U.S allied countries, like Australia, Israel and India will be involved in multiple regions helping lead alliances in all areas important to them. With that in mind we will point out the first mistake of the discussion on regions and that is Europe. We will suggest something here that would not usually come from the mouth of a hawk and pessimist and that is that NATO has no real mission and needs to be replaced by a series of alliances that make more sense. While the fear during the Cold War was a Warsaw Pact ground invasion into Germany and beyond which would have required the totality of American and European forces, Europe now is facing a Russia that could not conquer Ukraine in nearly four years of war. That is not to say that Russia is not to be feared only that each part of Europe needs to ally to face a Russian onslaught in its own theatre.

Italy is not going to send troops to Sweden to prevent an attack and Norway won’t be helping Greece in any fight. Turkey is a country that other NATO countries fear more than trust, especially regarding Russia.

In short, NATO needs to be broken up into different alliances where each country will be allied with countries whose fall would affect its national security. The United States can either be a signatory to these alliances or it can decide how involved it wants to get in any conflagration depending on its own interests at that time. It can decide to position ground troops in the countries, supply air cover or, as in the 12-day war between Israel and Iran, help with missile defense and in providing the final blow with weapons only America has. Or – it can decide that it will never participate. One hopes that that won’t happen, but each alliance will need to be ready to fight on its own.

We can include France and the U.K as large countries with advanced armed forces as allies to all of these alliances. France certainly can contribute air power to each of the alliances that are faced against Russia. As for the U.K, it is difficult to know where that country is going but its navy and air force are still powerful.

Today we will deal with north, central and western Europe.

The Baltic Alliance

This would be an alliance that includes Poland, Germany, Sweden, Finland, Norway, Denmark, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia and would provide cover for land, air and naval battles. Each of these countries, with the exception of Germany, has a border with Russia and all are on the Baltic Sea – a key waterway for them and for Russia.

An alliance of these countries would force them to concentrate on those areas necessary for their defense. An incursion, for example into Finland would force Poland to mass forces on its border with Russia and Belarus (Poland borders Russia in Kaliningrad which is separated from Russia proper by Lithuania) and Germany to move forces to Poland. All countries could also contribute ground forces to Finland as well as naval and air power.

The only thing missing is the lack of a nuclear umbrella. That is no small issue but can be dealt with by support or threats from France or the U.K.

The Atlantic Alliance

Aside from helping the Baltic Alliance, France and the U.K will have major responsibility along with the Netherlands for patrolling the North Atlantic and, with help from Portugal, and Spain the South Atlantic. As the Atlantic Ocean can be considered one of America’s seas, this alliance will need to have the close cooperation if not outright membership of the United States. Canada too, will need to be part of this alliance. We can include the increasingly important Arctic Ocean into this alliance’s responsibilities.

As we move towards the south Atlantic countries such as Morocco, can be included as well as other western African allies of the west. An alliance like that could encourage western African countries to abandon close security and economic ties with China and Russia. The “border” of this alliance would be that squiggly line in the middle of the Atlantic that separates the Eastern and Western hemispheres.

The Central European Alliance

We can look at the smaller central European countries that formed the heart of what was the Hapsburg Empire but are not front line countries bordering Russia – Romania, Hungary, Slovakia, Czech Republic, Austria, Serbia and Bulgaria – and we have an alliance that, backed by Germany, Poland and the United States, would create a further deterrence to Russian encroachment into Europe proper.

Where, do you ask does Ukraine fall in this European alliance structure? That answer will have to come from the major European powers in concert with the United States. Adding Ukraine to the Baltic alliance might be viewed as another attempt to NATO-ize them by the Russians. However, attaching them to the less threatening Central European Alliance of smaller countries might be the excuse and “victory” that Putin would need to end the war. But we are getting ahead of ourselves here. Ukraine is a problem that can only be solved if the West decides to actively join the fight against Russia (unlikely) or when Putin and Russia get tired of the fight and look for a way out that could allow them to claim victory (more likely than the former, but sadly, a long way off).

The Administration’s concentration on regions and how certain countries can become leaders in support of western and American interests is correct – but the breakdown of the regions has to go beyond the post WWII world. The place of America in the post-cold war world, with a China that wants to challenge America’s economic and military interests and leadership needs to break down old alliances into more manageable and logical pieces.

The wild card in all of this is, of course, the will of the European powers to take their own defense seriously. The Baltic Alliance we spoke about seems to be filled with countries that understand the threat from Russia, but do they recognize the threat to them from the alignment, the Axis if you will, of Russia, Iran, North Korea and China? And of more importance have they yet come to understand the threat to their countries, as they know them, from open immigration and from their own abhorrence of families? The former is something only the governments can handle, the latter though, must come from the people themselves.

A whole generation (or two in many instances) of Europeans have grown up not only as “only children” but in families that have no aunts and no uncles, no cousins and only very elderly grandparents, if that. They have grown up in other words without families. Will the young generation see the importance of families to themselves and their countries or will they continue the nihilistic lives that they parents have “sanctified”? Religious institutions, too will have a major role in this challenge. No amount of “parental leave” and childcare subsidies will convince the young to marry and have children – will only come from a change in the culture. Is Europe up to it?

Disclaimer: the views expressed in this opinion article are solely those of the author, and not necessarily the opinions reflected by angrymetatraders.com or its associated parties.

You can follow Ira Slomowitz via The Angry Demagogue on Substack https://iraslomowitz.substack.com/ 

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New Alternatives for Regional Alliances & Global Effects?

by with No Comment Behavioral SentimentBusinessFeatured Highlights

New Alternatives for Regional Alliances & Global Effects?

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Opinion: The following article is commentary and its views are solely those of the author. This article was first published the 14th of March, 2025 via The Angry Demagogue.

There is so much going on that it really is difficult to keep up. Israel is at the center of many of the regional developments, as would be expected. But it is not just Israel as Israel, but Israel as an ally of the United States that is interesting. The Syria problem we have written about and it is still not clear what the Trump administration’s policy is there as they look skeptically but hopefully at Al-Julani’s Syria. In our opinion that decision will be made for them, since the chances that Al-Julani has changed his stripes to a Western democrat is small and even if we are wrong there – the armed Jihadist groups that he needs to control seem more interested in ridding Syria of ‘heretics’ than stabilizing the country.

Lebanon has changed enough for the United States and Israel to take chances. While it is too bad that Israel did not do more in ridding the country of Hezbollah, the fact that Syria is no longer part of the Shiite crescent means that they are isolated and not able to get funding and arms from Iran with the same ease. What is important about the current Lebanese government is that Hezbollah is not a part of it. That does not leave them powerless, but it allows the government to act more independently. The Lebanese Shiites, under Hezbollah and the less but still militant Amal, will have to rethink their loyalty to these two organizations. At the least, it should move Amal away from their stronger partner.

Iran now has no land route to Hezbollah and will have a harder time arming the Houthis, too. But it is in Iraq that they are facing problems which could cause as much damage to their projection of power as did the loss of Syria. Due to US pressure, Iraq has stopped buying Iranian electricity although they can still buy gas. It seems that the US is giving Iraq some time to find alternatives to Iranian gas and the Iraqi government is moving away from Iran on other issues too and are trying to get rid of Iran’s Shiite militias.

But the most interesting thing to happen is Israel’s attempt to strengthen America’s relationship with Azerbaijan, a country that Israel is in close contact with regarding Iran. Israel has always been rumored to plan to use Azeri air force bases in a possible attack on Iran. The Azeri official responsible for regional development was in Israel last month and is trying to bridge differences between Israel and Turkey. The Azeri’s next stop after Israel was to Turkey. Steve Witkoff is reported to have stopped in Baku after his visit to Moscow.

An Azeri company has also bought rights to Israel’s Tamar gas field. Israel currently gets oil from Azerbaijan via a pipeline that goes through Turkey so the energy relationship is strong and longstanding between Israel and Azerbaijan. It seems that Turkey’s relationship with Azerbaijan is more important to them than their animosity towards Israel – probably because the Azeris and Armenians are enemies. It seems that sometimes not only friendships have to be ranked but enemies, too.

Trump’s game with Ukraine is not necessarily to my taste but it could be that there is something much bigger going on here and that is connecting Israel, Russia, Central Asia and Turkey to a grand alliance with the United States. I don’t think that Trump will succeed in pulling Russia away from Iran and China and that Erdogan’s Turkey will not give up their dream of destroying Israel. But what if the Iranian regime falls after a combination of harsh sanctions, economic collapse and Israeli military attacks? What if Iran is pulled away from the alliance leaving Russia with just China? What if a Russian base in Syria is dependent upon their moving away from China?

Last year the Axis held a near continuous land bridge from the Pacific to the Mediterranean. China was moving into Russia’s “sphere of influence” in the “Stans” of Central Asia with their economic bear hugs. This was something that the Biden administration ignored, but could be a bigger headache for Putin than a well armed but non-NATO Ukraine with American businessmen instead of soldiers as a tripwire.

Are we giving too much credit to Trump and his foreign policy team and to Israel’s influence in the expanded region that reaches beyond Syria? Is there more going on than we know or less?

On October 7 and the days that followed, the Biden Administration was sure that Israel was in such a panic that it would agree to anything, and they could force the Obama Middle East of a hegemonic Iran and a Palestinian state down Israel’s throats – and overthrow Netanyahu as an extra. None of those things happened.

Only a fool would predict what will be in a year, but what we have discussed above is one scenario no one would have considered even six months ago. The post WWII world looked nothing like the world of 1937, and the post WWIII world (the one we wrote about a year ago and may or may not have happened!) will look nothing like September 2023 – no matter how hard the UN yells and screams.

Could Israel and Azerbaijan be the keys to a realigned world?

It is against my nature to be optimistic, especially since Israel is still not done with Gaza, the hostages are not yet home and the internal politics are reaching levels that border on a soft coup.

However, while we don’t know where the aces are, we know that the Obama-Biden jokers are no longer in the deck.

Disclaimer: the views expressed in this opinion article are solely those of the author, and not necessarily the opinions reflected by angrymetatraders.com or its associated parties.

You can follow Ira Slomowitz via The Angry Demagogue on Substack https://iraslomowitz.substack.com/ 

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Make Common Sense Great Again: On Moving Away from Nuance

by with No Comment Featured HighlightsRisk ManagementWorld

Make Common Sense Great Again: On Moving Away from Nuance

Opinion: The following article is commentary and its views are solely those of the author. This article was first published the 23rd of July 2024 via The Angry Demagogue.

Has there been a total breakdown of readiness in the West? When we look at seemingly unrelated events we see that people in responsible positions in governments around the Western world have missed signs that are obvious – and not only after the fact. The attempted Trump assassination just got me thinking how no one seems to react to the obvious anymore. It seems that both the local police and the Secret Service knew that this young man was on a roof with a rifle and no one took the most elementary actions of delaying Trump’s appearance or trying to stop the shooter or even ascertain his motives all of which was obvious to everyone else. We are not talking about someone missing a shot at him or even forgetting to check a specific place, but an active decision was made – to do nothing.

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On October 6 and 7 the IDF Chief of Staff and his senior advisors on the General Staff heard of possible Hamas plans to attack, knew of previous intelligence that detailed the exact attack that happened and even refused a request of the head of the Southern Command to move 4 helicopters closer to Gaza. Instead of doing even the minimum, they just did nothing. They ignored the obvious and ruled purposely against common sense and in favor of their own preconceived notions.

As Russia was massing troops on the border and as Putin’s talk was becoming more and more belligerent the US administration did nothing that might have at least hinted to Putin that this could only lead to disaster. Putting US troops on a higher alert, inviting the Ukrainian ambassador to the White House as a show of support – anything really, might have given Putin food for thought. As Iran moves closer and closer to attaining a nuclear weapon and taking control of the middle east, the West just does nothing. Destroying Houthi assets (as the Israelis have just done), sending B52’s into the sky for training missions to destroy Islamic Republic assets – all that might have made the Iranian rulers wonder what was in store for them and limiting the war to Gaza. But again, against common sense, nothing was done because …. Wishful thinking.

If those responsible were acting like boys in the school playground (are boys still allowed to play in the playground?) they would have done more than they did in all these cases. 

Since the end of the Cold War we have seen the abandonment of common sense in favor of sophisticated analyses where nuance trumps simplicity and bias dominates the analysis of data and where cliches overtake serious policy. In classical Jewish biblical exegesis, there is one rule which nearly all (non-mystical) commentators hold and that is that the exegesis cannot contradict the simple meaning of the words of the Bible.  True enough, that is stretched to points of wonder sometimes – but they still cling to the rule. 

Common sense is underrated in policy analysis and often in business, but those who ignore it now will be challenged later. Common sense means the acceptance of what people say and looking at data without bias. Common sense means that you have to understand the person you are talking to and don’t assume they think like you. 

Back in my university days I read a lot of Hannah Arendt, who, in spite of the banality of her banality of evil theory had a lot to say. In her book “The Human Condition” she speaks of common sense – or as she often puts it “the sense of the common”.

I would like to quote her here, even though I tend to think she would not have thought that it was the rulers, the policy makers and the writers who are ignoring common sense:

“The only character of the world by which to gauge its reality is its being common to us all, and common sense occupies such a high rank in the hierarchy of political qualities because it is the one sense that fits into reality as a whole our five strictly individual senses and the strictly particular data they perceive.  It is by virtue of common sense that the other sense perceptions are known to disclose reality …. A noticeable decrease in common sense in any given community and a noticeable increase in superstition and gullibility are therefore almost infallible signs of alienation from the world.”

Arendt of course assumed that the lower or working classes were susceptible to superstition and gullibility but in these times it is the ruling classes that have abandoned common sense in favor of superstition and gullibility. It is they who are alienated from the world. Preconceived notions that contradict the plain meaning of the world is today’s superstition – and it is no less dangerous and irrational than the superstitions of times past.

Let’s take a brief look at these policy decisions by nearly all western countries, regardless of their geographical location or economic outlooks, their demographic trends or the overall culture of their people and their neighbors resulting directly or indirectly of the perilous situation the free world is now in.

Defense Spending and Force Size

The post-cold war “peace dividend” became an idol of western policy makers.  Massive cuts in defense spending even in things that were very necessary to the maintenance of said “peace dividend” – like naval power – was the preferred way of dealing with the end of the Soviet Union. The “End of History” was read simplistically instead of realizing that other ideologies and other powers might very soon challenge the victorious west. Some thinkers, I think of a professor of mine (Elie Krakowski) who back in 1979-80, before the collapse of the Soviet Union, spoke of Islam as the third force which will challenge the West and the East. I studied in a small university and if we were discussing it back then how are policy makers in Washington, London, Tel Aviv and Paris not speaking of it today?

While Edward Said’s “Orientalism” was the talk of the town, Bernard Lewis and Fouad Ajami were, despite their posts at Princeton and Johns Hopkins, not taken seriously enough. If they were, the US Navy would not have gone from 594 ships in 1987 to 275 in 2016. The British Navy  went from about 170 ships in 1970 to well under 50 in 2017. The rest of Western Europe we all know about. But at least countries like Netherlands, Belgium and Denmark don’t face hostile neighbors and were never meant to have forces that would do more than assist in minor operations.

Israel on the other hand has always faced neighbors who have desired to destroy it.  Even the countries with which it signed peace treaters, Jordan and Egypt, have never been able to translate these treaties into popular support and are always a coup away from belligerence. The history of dictatorships in general and of the Middle East in particular ought to have given the Israeli high command at least a hint as to what they might be facing. With the advent of Iran as a major regional power with the means and desire to spread its theo-revolutionary ideology, Israel ought to have realized that the era of wars was not over. Yet, since 2000 Israel has cut 6 divisions and decommissioned 2,000 tanks from its forces. It has cut military service for men from 36 to 32 months, even as it has not increased the mandatory service for woman from 24 months even though it has increased the amount of women in combat and combat support roles. The ultra-orthodox still don’t serve (they are about 16% of the draft class) zero even after October 7 and the number of youth who have received exemptions due to “psychological” reasons has skyrocketed to nearly 13% of the draft class. I don’t mean to belittle those with true psychological issues but rather the high numbers signify that many if not most are of a class that allows them to afford to pay psychologists for convenient diagnoses.

In other words – the IDF, the Finance Ministry and the political class all found it convenient to reduce the size of the army – both manpower and equipment – and used the excuse that there will be no more ground wars to justify the move.

The Ukraine conflict revealed to the world that US arms production of even the most basic arms is not enough for the US itself to maintain minimal levels during wartime.   The current Middle East conflict has magnified this disaster.

Common sense readiness has been ignored throughout the Western world due to sophisticated thinking more wishful than realistic. This is nothing less than a messianic and superstitious belief in the end of wars.

Immigration and Assimilation

If there is one issue that common sense has missed it is immigration. The reactions of average citizens to unlimited immigration in Western democratic countries has been uniform – NO! In some countries the yelling is louder but in all western countries there is significant opposition, on common sense grounds often, to the establishment immigration policies.

I am an immigrant to Israel and my grandparents were immigrants to the United States. Immigration, the movement of peoples from place to place has been going on since people left Africa – and before. But there is no separating immigration from assimilation unless your immigration is due to imperialism and conquest.  The Romans, Greeks, Chinese and Persians of ancient times, the Arabs of late antiquity were all imperialists. There was of course the age of imperialism that ended in WWI. But 21st century immigration is not of national conquest but of individual movement of people and families. One by definition must adapt to the local cultures – in the widest sense of the word. If a cotton farmer from Arizona wants to move to Iowa, he better adapt to the climate and figure out how to grow wheat or soybeans instead of cotton. If an aristocrat from England decides to move to the United States, he needs to know that his family heritage and titles won’t get him much. If a Spanish or Chinese speaker moves to Germany, the expectation is that he will learn to speak German.

An immigrant who does not respect the local culture in all its manifestations needs to get permission in order to stay in the new country. That is the way of the nation-state that has protected freedom in the western world so well (if not always so well). We can’t compare the 21st century to the pre-WWI world where borders were porous and people that survived the trip across a continent or an ocean could settle in that new land. Some more successfully than others. 

Common sense dictates that an immigrant that does not respect the laws of his new home has no right to live there. Yet, time and again, immigration policy has been separated from the law and being law abiding has no bearing on future citizenship.  Therefore, there is no demand from the immigrant and no opportunity for the immigrant to assimilate and be part of the social fabric of his new country. That being said, the mass Islamic immigration into Europe could be said to be imperialistic as the leaders of these communities have discouraged any type of rapprochement with Western values and law. That, along with the demographic collapse of indigenous Europe has put Europe on the brink of either a civil war or a peaceful surrender to Islamic imperial forces.  

Free Trade and Social Peace

There is no doubting that free trade brings prosperity and that economic growth better than any other global trading system. Free trade  is also the best way to lift the global poor out of poverty. The U.S constitution understood the importance of free trade, as states were prohibited from starting trade wars with each other.   This has also been the “good” in the E.U and has produced much prosperity in that Union.

Yet, free trade with allies needs to be differentiated between free trade with enemies  – meaning those that oppose our system. Free trade that allows your enemies to defeat you militarily is not free trade but suicide. So too, trade policies need to have social issues taken into consideration. This is not a call for tariffs or against free trade pacts, especially with neighbors, but rather they need to be adjusted with common sense solutions to employment and other problems that will arise from any economic change. 

Social peace is the second half of this section because, besides immigration, the erosion, not to say destruction of physically intensive jobs can and often does lead to social violence for reasons obvious to those with common sense.

Energy and Food Supply

For the most part, you would think that after national defense, it is a government’s first responsibility to its citizens to guarantee the food and energy supply of its citizens. Before we get to luxury and access to travel, the ready supply of food and energy seems to be the minimum that a government ought to do. And yet, when we speak of issues related to climate change (and lets not get into the “is it or isn’t it real” argument) the solutions first mandated to the problem have to do with limiting both of these items without which we cannot live. In California, farmer’s access to water is limited even after the drought due to concerns about some fish and climate, and in the Netherlands they want to pay farmers to stop producing food so that the Earth will not suffer. 

What is the plan here? Regarding energy supply, one would think that shoring up access to alternative energy would take priority over banning current ways of producing energy. In California, they have been having rolling blackouts in the summer for years and they are looking to ban gas stoves and ovens and gasoline powered cars. Private jets and yachts though are off limits for obvious reasons. What is the plan there? Is there any real preparation?

As for food supply, is the  plan to reduce population or to reduce calory intake? To what levels? Is there an expectation that people will starve themselves to “save the planet”? Again – I am not arguing for or against human causes of climate change but rather, for the common sense understanding that securing the world’s food supply takes priority over closing farms or turning them into organic utopias.

A perfect example is Sri Lanka where those in power bought into the organic farming ideology of Western aristocrats and they ended all non-organic farming causing a famine and a depression. People who worked hard their whole lives lost all their savings as they were unwilling participants in a cruel experiment to see if organic farming can feed a small island nation.  

In sum – a bit less nuance and a bit more common sense – a bit more sensing what is “common to us all” would be welcome in political and policy matters. Maybe if we pursued more common sense policies and a lot less superstition and bias there would be less yelling and screaming in the public square. 

Disclaimer: the views expressed in this opinion article are solely those of the author, and not necessarily the opinions reflected by angrymetatraders.com or its associated parties.

You can follow Ira Slomowitz via The Angry Demagogue on Substack https://iraslomowitz.substack.com/ 

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Middle East is Proving to be a New Playground for the Axis

by with No Comment Behavioral SentimentFeatured HighlightsInvesting

Middle East is Proving to be a New Playground for the Axis

Opinion: The following article is commentary and its views are solely those of the author. This article was first published the 4th of July with an addendum on the 5th via The Angry Demagogue.

Blinken Gets Pushed to the Back of the Line

While the Biden-Blinken Administration is obsessing on “non-escalation” and telling allies they are on their own if they attack an Axis member that attacks the ally,  or that they will help the ally “defend itself” but not take the offensive (how you do that is a mystery) the Axis itself is establishing itself all over the Middle East.

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Let’s start with a statement, quoted in Israel, by Alexander Dugin who is Putin’s ideological advisor advising the Russian leadership to arm Hezbollah and the Houthis in their fight against Israel. Earlier this week, Newsweek reported that Russia is considering arming the Houthis with cruise missiles. These could be used against Israel and against Saudi Arabia – or maybe U.S bases in the area. As Russia seeks to cement its ties with anti-Western countries and forces around the world, it seems to be partnering with Iran so as to increase the potency of Iran’s proxies and press their goal to rid the region of U.S forces. Toward this goal Iran and even Russia are manufacturing tanks together in Iran.

The Houthis themselves, under with the guidance of Iran, are attempting to expand their sea blockade from Bab al Mandab straits connecting the Gulf of Aden with the Red Sea, to the east African coast by cooperating with the Sunni and al-Qaeda based Somali terrorist group al-Shabaab al-Mujahadin. Reports in Israel quoting U.S intelligence sources claim that the two groups are cooperating and that the Houthis will supply weapons to al-Shabaab in order to interdict global shipping off the Somali coast and in order to harass U.S forces stationed in the area.

The anti-U.S alliance seem to be able to cross religious and ideological boundaries in ways that western intelligence thought impossible. That is because western (and Israeli) intelligence mis-categorize all of these groups and countries. The issue is not who is Sunni and who is Shiite, who is Russian Orthodox and who is Communist, but rather, who is for keeping the international status-quo and who’s for, to use a phrase meant for different times – a “new global order”.  

The Houthis, feeling confident in having defeated the U.S Navy in the Red Sea are now threatening Saudi Arabia for saying no to a Russian negotiated deal (under the auspices of the U.N and opposed by the U.S) which would bring an end to the embargo against the Houthis including their export of oil as well as Saudi financing of the Houthi civil government in the part of Yemen they occupy (they learned from Hamas and Qatar/PA/Israel that you really can have your enemies pay your salaries) amongst other goodies. They blame Saudi Arabia for allowing U.S jets to bomb Houthi sites from airbases inside Saudi Arabia – with no U.S carriers in the Red Sea that certainly could be true. In their threat they included videos of their bombing of Saudi oil fields in 2019 just in case the Saudis forgot. 

The Houthis, with their experience stopping shipping, have, according to a JCPA report been the point men for Iran’s plan to extend the sea embargo against Israel to the Mediterranean. This would not only hurt Israeli shipping but also the ability of its Air Force to operate properly. We wrote recently about Iran’s possible plans for Cyprus, including Hezbollah’s open threat to them, and this fits nicely with their plan to ring Israel with fire on all sides. We already know that Russian intelligence vessels are in the Mediterranean tracking Israeli submarines and that the Russian naval base in Syria is a safe haven for Iranian shipping. 

Just this week an Iranian vessel filled with arms for Hezbollah anchored in the Syrian port of Latakia (why did Israel not sink this??!!) which is 100kms (60 miles) north of the Russian naval base in Tartus, Syria – was it escorted in by the Russian Navy? Is that why?  

The U.S now has three main allies in the Middle East – Israel, Saudi Arabia and UAE, and with the exception that the UAE administration has a habit of criticizing and threatening these allies. 

It boggles the mind that Blinken does not see what the entire world sees – a so far successful effort rid the Middle East of the U.S and its allies. For Israel that means annihilation and for Saudi Arabia it means probably surrender to the Iranians while its royal family is allowed to enjoy their money (best case scenario). For the UAE it means it will be used even more than it currently is as an Axis financial center. For the U.S it means a withdrawal, not to the Western Hemisphere – but to the northern half of it. 

The Middle East is slowly becoming the playground of the Axis and it is just a matter of time before the West won’t be able to get a turn on the swings.

Addendum: A short follow regarding the Houthi ultimatum to Saudi Arabia

The Houthi’s gave the Saudis 72 hours to respond and respond they did. The Saudis have agreed to all the demands of the Houthis as they realized that the United States will not defend them from attack and are unwilling or unable to deter, let alone to destroy the Houthis offensive capabilities.

Amongst the Houthi demands that the Saudis agreed to are:

1. The re-opening of the airport in Sana’a, Yemen.  They will allow direct flights to bring pilgrims to Mecca, flights to Jordan and soon flights to everywhere. This will allow the Houthis to be re-armed by the Iranians via air transport.

2. Payment, by Saudi Arabia of Houthi government employees.

3. Allowing the Houthis to sell oil – ending the embargo.

This is a plan, as stated, sponsored by Russia and not opposed by the United States. It is a further move by the Axis into pushing the U.S out of the region. It is not clear if part of this agreement is for the Saudis to disallow U.S use of the Prince Sultan Ari Base for attacks on the Houthis.  

As an aside, the UAE has suggested that the U.S setup a base in Somaliland – a breakaway country in the horn of Africa on the coast of the Gulf of Aden and bordered by Djibouti and Ethiopia (and of course Somalia). This seems to be an attempt to rid the Gulf States of the responsibility to host U.S forces that attack Iranian proxies.  Could Biden’s “you are on your own if you attack Iran” (back in April after the 300 projectile attack on Israel) have influenced their decision?

Russia and Iran are on the rise in the region as the U.S administration preaches de-escalation and appeasement. 

Disclaimer: the views expressed in this opinion article are solely those of the author, and not necessarily the opinions reflected by angrymetatraders.com or its associated parties.

You can follow Ira Slomowitz via The Angry Demagogue on Substack https://iraslomowitz.substack.com/

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Spiders for the 1st of March 2024

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Spiders for the 1st of March 2024

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10. Palystes: Huntsman spiders known in South Africa as ‘rain spiders’ are nocturnal and visit indoors, sometimes causing horror for those stumbling through hallways in the middle of the night. But it is better than a baboon entering the house.

9. Victor Wembanyama: Last night’s stat line included 28 points, 13 rebounds, 5 blocks, 5 3pts made, 7 assists, 2 steals in less than 33 minutes played. The rookie is already one of the best NBA players. Btw, the Spurs beat the Thunder also.

8. Tech: Chinese cars are now in the crosshairs of U.S politicians who are worried the ‘smart’ vehicles can collect sensitive data from Americans.

7. Crypto: Bitcoin above 61,000.00 USD, Ethereum over 3,300.00, and Binance Coin testing 400.00 even as the company remains under U.S legal shadows. How much air can the balloons withstand?

6. Putin’s Nuclear Threats: In a world with escalating geo-political tension, the Russian leader remains determined and energetic while playing ‘war poker’ against Europe.

5. U.S Data: Core PCE Index numbers yesterday met expectations, but the previous month’s outcome was revised downwards. Today a Consumer Sentiment reading comes from the University of Michigan. This week’s U.S data has mostly been pleasantly ‘weaker’.

4. Central Banks: Fed ‘watchers’ are likely feeling more comfortable this morning regarding the possibility of a late spring ‘thaw’ in U.S interest rates. Jerome Powell will testify in front of the Senate next Thursday. The ECB will release their Monetary Policy Statement on the 7th of March also. Next FOMC pronouncements will be on the 20th of March.

3. Gold: The precious metal is near 2050.00 USD, this after yesterday’s U.S inflation report, gold could remain volatile today. Some speculators may be looking for additional value to develop.

2. Forex: FX has been a constant battle the past two months, but patient traders with mid-term perspectives may be anticipating their weaker USD targets to trend more steadily.

1. Equities: Many global stock indices are achieving record levels as bullish behavioral sentiment creates upwards momentum. S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and the Composite, Dow 30, Nikkei 225 and the DAX Index are flirting with higher values.

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Escalation of Rhetoric doesn’t create Calm Investors

by with No Comment Federal Reserve, Interest RatesMajor Global Equity IndicesWorld

Escalation of Rhetoric doesn't create Calm Investors

Putin and U.S Federal Reserve will Stir U.S Markets Today

An escalation of rhetoric via Russian President Vladimir Putin regarding his nation’s war with Ukraine took place this morning via a televised address to the Russian people. Putin has said Russia will call upon those with previous military training, and use a ‘limited’ call up of potential new troops. A claim of nearly 300,000 additional soldiers to be readied has been made by senior Russian officials shortly after Putin’s speech.

Making matters more intense, Putin said all military options are possible while Russia protects its sovereign territory. The land he was speaking about however, is not recognized Russian territory, it is Ukrainian soil. Putin’s ‘talk’ to Russia has firmly put him in a position which shows that results from the Ukrainian war have not had favorable results and that he is showing signs of frustration. An anxious Vladimir Putin is not about to calm down what are already nervous global markets.

China Urges a De-escalation in Ukraine while not naming Russia

China has already reacted to Putin’s speech by urging all sides active in the Ukrainian conflict to de-escalate the situation. China has its own economic worries presently and certainly doesn’t need another bad ingredient thrown into its midst as it deals with weaker demand for export products and a shaky real estate market as the global economy reacts to inflation and recessionary concerns.

International traders will hardly hear what China had to say today, not because it isn’t important, but because their attention will be on Putin and the U.S Federal Reserve. However, it is important to point out China did not condemn Russia, instead it asked that all sides involved in the Ukrainian sphere to lessen the dangers. China and its relationship with Russia remains an important aspect of global politics.

The U.S Federal Reserve will raise Interest Rates Today

The U.S Fed will raise its interest rate by 0.75% today according to most financial houses which have already acted accordingly within Forex per interpreted price action. The USD has made new long term highs within the USD/ZAR and the USD/CAD. The EUR is below par as of this writing against the USD, and the JPY and GBP also continue to struggle near long term lows versus the USD.

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USD/CAD One Month Chart

U.S equity indices which have been struggling are not showing a massive promise of a reversal upwards which will alleviate losses seen this year. Investors need to remain patient if they are invested in indices such as the S&P 500. Day traders looking to profit from the volatility ripping through the markets will continue to be challenged by choppy conditions, difficult perceptions of short term technical charts and a lack of positive behavioral sentiment among the larger players in the marketplace who actually drive the markets most of the time.

  • USD remains stronger against many major and emerging market currencies, day traders need to be very careful if they pursue Forex positions in the short term.

  • U.S equity indices traded lower yesterday, and if the Federal Reserve falters and doesn’t offer solid clarity regarding interest rates today, this could create more nervousness.

Optimism is not being heard far and wide. While it is always interesting to be a contrarian and sometimes the correct avenue to engage thinking, the notion that upwards trajectories will suddenly occur may be wishful thinking in the near and mid term. Many asset classes are under stress.

Today’s upcoming pronouncements from the Fed will be important for institutional investors as they try to gauge the U.S central bank’s outlook until early 2023. If the Fed gives clues they will remain hawkish into the winter and a Funds rate around 4.50 to 5.00%is a possibility, this could shake investors and cause more capitulation – meaning a stronger selloff via equity indices could ensue. Short term traders will need to be prepared for violent conditions if they are day traders of stocks or CFDs. The inverted U.S bond yields remains a sign investors are seeking short and mid-term safety via interest rates to preserve money.

The fact that most traders are typically buyers first, not sellers first makes trading in bear markets difficult. Psychologically humans want to be optimistic. Today’s speech by Vladimir Putin while it doesn’t change the conditions on the ground in the Ukraine immediately, will shake the confidence of some financial houses which may have become accustomed to a ‘polite war’ they could ‘forget’ about and make believe would not get loud again. Nervous behavior is likely to be seen later today as early risers in the States awake to the news of Putin’s speech and react.

In short global markets will be dynamic today and tomorrow, as financial houses position their portfolios according to their foresight regarding developments the next few months. Day traders are urged to be cautious, and the prospect of sitting on the sidelines and watching ‘the show’ may prove to be a solid choice.