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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Wonders for the 12th of April 2024

by with No Comment AMT MarketsArtificial IntelligenceFeatured Highlights

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Wonders for the 12th of April 2024

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10. Free Press: Brazil and the Lula de Silva government are cracking down on dissent in social media. ‘X’ – formerly Twitter – led by Elon Musk is fighting back and refusing to cooperate as Brazilian ‘leadership’ attempts to intimidate the ‘loyal opposition’ in the legislature.

9. GROOT: Nvidia is working on ‘humanoid’ robotics. Project GROOT was presented by Jensen Huang at the GTC Conference. The synergy between machine learning, semiconductors and robotics is an evolution taking place before our eyes. Tesla is involved in similar research as it works on Optimus.

8. Hot Chocolate: Speculation in Cocoa has brought the commodity above 10,400.00 USD per metric ton as of this writing. Questions about gravity and hypersonic speculative values are logical at this juncture.

7. Seclusion: Do humans still need each other? People are relying on their mobile devices for social interactions. Robotics with AI capabilities will make our existence potentially more lonely. Open source software DOBB-E will be part of this future as household chores are taken care of by ‘machines’.

6. Iran: Those with holiday excursion plans which include Teheran this weekend may need to check on ticket availability due to the possibility of flight cancellations.

5. Fed Liberty: President Joe Biden this week spoke about an interest rate cut coming from the Federal Reserve this year, yet Consumer Price Index statistics are demonstrating escalating expenses. Current U.S government leaders may want to spend less on ‘vote buying’ via student loan forgiveness and think about conservative fiscal practices. Why should Americans who choose not to attend universities pay for those who did via higher taxes? Are Fed and Treasury officials still independent?

4. Risk Averse: Gold is within sight of 2,400.00 USD this morning. In the meantime U.S bond yields have inverted completely except for the 30-Year issue. Financial institutions are showing nervous behavioral sentiment.

3. USD Centric: Forex has seen reactive trading this week as financial institutions begin to conclude the U.S Federal Reserve’s monetary policy ‘over time’ will remain disturbingly difficult and full of doublespeak.

2. Caution: Mixed results are flourishing in the major U.S stock indices as the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 touch late March values, and the Dow Jones 30 has returned to February levels. Higher than anticipated interest rates are causing turbulence.

1. Energy Illusions: As the prices of food, transportation and housing escalates isn’t it time governments start to question their ‘green’ policies which are making the costs of energy production more expensive? We all want a clean planet, but logical strategies must be applied to create efficient use of resources.

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Spiders for the 1st of March 2024

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Spiders for the 1st of March 2024

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10. Palystes: Huntsman spiders known in South Africa as ‘rain spiders’ are nocturnal and visit indoors, sometimes causing horror for those stumbling through hallways in the middle of the night. But it is better than a baboon entering the house.

9. Victor Wembanyama: Last night’s stat line included 28 points, 13 rebounds, 5 blocks, 5 3pts made, 7 assists, 2 steals in less than 33 minutes played. The rookie is already one of the best NBA players. Btw, the Spurs beat the Thunder also.

8. Tech: Chinese cars are now in the crosshairs of U.S politicians who are worried the ‘smart’ vehicles can collect sensitive data from Americans.

7. Crypto: Bitcoin above 61,000.00 USD, Ethereum over 3,300.00, and Binance Coin testing 400.00 even as the company remains under U.S legal shadows. How much air can the balloons withstand?

6. Putin’s Nuclear Threats: In a world with escalating geo-political tension, the Russian leader remains determined and energetic while playing ‘war poker’ against Europe.

5. U.S Data: Core PCE Index numbers yesterday met expectations, but the previous month’s outcome was revised downwards. Today a Consumer Sentiment reading comes from the University of Michigan. This week’s U.S data has mostly been pleasantly ‘weaker’.

4. Central Banks: Fed ‘watchers’ are likely feeling more comfortable this morning regarding the possibility of a late spring ‘thaw’ in U.S interest rates. Jerome Powell will testify in front of the Senate next Thursday. The ECB will release their Monetary Policy Statement on the 7th of March also. Next FOMC pronouncements will be on the 20th of March.

3. Gold: The precious metal is near 2050.00 USD, this after yesterday’s U.S inflation report, gold could remain volatile today. Some speculators may be looking for additional value to develop.

2. Forex: FX has been a constant battle the past two months, but patient traders with mid-term perspectives may be anticipating their weaker USD targets to trend more steadily.

1. Equities: Many global stock indices are achieving record levels as bullish behavioral sentiment creates upwards momentum. S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and the Composite, Dow 30, Nikkei 225 and the DAX Index are flirting with higher values.

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Forex and Equities Storm: Crucial Data will Impact Markets

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

Forex and Equities Storm: Crucial Data will Impact Markets

Today will start out with a rather important consumer report from the U.S and day traders should stay alert. It is easy to point to every day and week as being a crucial circumstance for speculators, because that is what gets their juices moving and gets them to wager in the markets.

However, given the rather choppy conditions in Forex seen since the last week of December and pointing to the results of the Consumer Price Index on the 13th of February and the storms created in FX, traders hopefully have enough muscle memory to remember how they felt in the midst of the whipsaw conditions which were experienced only two weeks ago.

Central bank outlooks are fragile among analysts and financial institutions. Simply put this week’s data could prove to be more important than the CPI numbers. Consumer sentiment, GDP, and inflation statistics are all on the U.S roll call this week.

Other geographies will make news too and impact global markets. Last week’s impressive results from Nvidia created another massive wave of positive momentum in equity indices. The Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 and the Dow Jones 30 all have hit record values. Japan’s Nikkei 225 has surpassed record heights.

Yet, other barometers do highlight caution abounds too, U.S Treasuries yields have edged upwards and are touching values which show there is nervousness regarding monetary policy from the U.S Federal Reserve. This week’s data will deliver more insights for investors, and Treasuries are certainly going to react to the economic reports.

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Gold One Month Chart as of 27th of February 2024

Gold has edged higher in the past week and is around the 2034.00 USD mark as of this writing. The slight climb above the 2020.00 ratio which has worked like a magnet recently, indicates some traders may be leaning optimistically towards a weaker USD mid and long-term. These folks may be proven correct, but day traders should note that the 2030.00 ratio in gold is below highs seen in December, January and early February – which indicates nervousness. If day traders do not believe gold acts as an inverse barometer for the USD, simply look at the results of trading when the stronger than expected CPI numbers were released on the 13th of February. Gold fell to a low near 1985.00 on the 14th, this was not a coincidence.

Again, while it is easy to sound alarms and jump up and down and proclaim every week important for day traders, the acknowledgement that this week’s economic data is significant should not be treated as hyperbole. You have been warned.

Monday, 26th of February, U.S New Home Sales – yesterday’s results showed another decline in the housing market, and the previous month’s number was revised downwards. The outcome may point to concerns about U.S mortgage rates which remain stubbornly high for those considering purchases.

Tuesday, 27th of February, U.S Durable Goods Orders – a rather large drop of minus -4.9% is expected. The Core data however is expected to produce a rise of 0.2%. These numbers will be a good precursor for the important consumer sentiment which will follow one and a half hours later.

Tuesday, 27th of February, U.S Consumer Confidence via the Conference Board – the results of the important readings have shown intriguing gains since late fall in 2023. While improvement in sentiment has been recorded, revisions lower have also been seen in the previous three reports. The outcome of today’s report should be treated carefully. If another higher reading is produced this may create some positive momentum in the USD momentarily.

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NZD/USD Three Month Chart as of 27th February 2024

Wednesday, 28th of February, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Official Cash Rate and Monetary Policy Statement – while many Forex traders will be sleeping when the RBNZ makes its important pronouncement, New Zealand inflation data has remained strong and a conservative government is in charge politically that is pro-business. The question is if the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will go against the grain of other global central banks and actually increase their interest rate while others seem to be adamant about trying to become less aggressive. While many analysts believe the RBNZ will sit on its hands and act according to the whims of others, if an interest rate hike is announced global Forex traders should take note because it would be a signal that central bankers are uneasy regarding their rhetoric and not in agreement.

Wednesday, 28th of February, U.S Preliminary Gross Domestic Product – a gain of 3.3% is the expectation from many analysts. The previous reading was stronger than anticipated. If growth numbers in the U.S come in higher than estimated the USD will react with strength. The Federal Reserve would like to see the outcome meet the expectation or come in below, this so the U.S central bank can consider reducing the Federal Funds Rate late this spring or in early summer. However, if a significantly strong growth number is demonstrated this would cause turmoil in Forex.

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EUR/USD Six Month Chart as of 27th February 2024

Thursday, 29th of February, Germany Preliminary Consumer Price Index – a slight gain is expected in the inflation number. The EUR/USD has been struggling as stagflation concerns shadow the European Union. A higher inflation result will not be welcomed by the ECB, which would prefer to cut interest rates sooner rather than later. The German number should be watched and it will cause an impact if there is a surprise. The EUR/USD has been turbulent and is likely to produce more choppy conditions depending on the parade of data results this week.

Thursday, 29th of February, U.S Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index – traders who have felt the previous economic reports already have caused intense reactions this week should brace for this inflation report. A result of 0.4% is expected. The Federal Reserve admits this is one of the most important publications that it monitors. This means financial institutions react to this report too. If inflation were to come in higher than expected, like the CPI results from two weeks ago, this would essentially kill off expectations of a May interest rate cut from the Fed. The USD will react to this report and so will U.S Treasury yields, which means equity indices will also be affected. A weaker inflation report is being wished for by many market participants, but will this be the result?

Friday, 1st of March, China Manufacturing PMI – not to beat a dead horse, but China’s economic data has been poor and this report will be viewed as important. Another negative outcome is expected. Transparency regarding economic numbers from China is a worry for investors. Conditions in China are being watched and it is important for traders to eliminate bias regarding their perspectives. China may be struggling, but its importance as an economic power is still very much in evidence. Foreign direct investment into China is diminishing, but plenty of investors still have ‘skin in the game’ and will be affected by the manufacturing reports.

Friday, 1st of March, U.S Manufacturing PMI via ISM – a slightly improved manufacturing reading is expected. However, because of the U.S data releases from the previous days, the results may be looked at only momentarily and not cause much of a reaction from market participants. Traders may be looking forward to the weekend after this week’s economic publications in order to rest.

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Insights for the 9th of February

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Insights for the 9th of February

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10. Super Bowl AMT Prediction: Kansas City Chiefs 27 – San Francisco 49ers 24. After winning the MVP Travis Kelce will hug Taylor Swift and announce his retirement.

9. Jazz Fusion: Please listen to the song School Days played by Stanley Clarke while delivering a supreme bass guitar riff.

8. Tech: Google has announced its Bard A.I will now be known as Gemini in a rebranding. ‘Bard’ was a rather poor name, but is Gemini much better? Let’s ask Gemini what it thinks about the Google marketing team.

7. Banking Animal Kingdom: Central Banks parroting the same rhetoric globally as they choose to be ‘prey’ instead of ‘predators’, driving financial institutions and traders batty in Forex.

6. Crypto: The NBA is being sued by investors in a Class Action Complaint in conjunction with 4.2 billion USD in losses, because of alleged fraudulent actions by Voyager Digital Holdings, claiming the NBA bears responsibility for negligent marketing via the Dallas Mavericks. https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.flsd.661881/gov.uscourts.flsd.661881.1.0.pdf

5. Deutsche Pfandbriefbank AG: A large slump in bond values for the German bank has sparked additional fears of exposure for banks involved with the commercial real estate sector. CRE appraisals remain unrealistically high in many European and North American cities as lending risks climb.

4. Cocoa: The price for the commodity was 4055.00 USD per metric ton on the 8th of January, as of yesterday it was 5666.00, a rise in cost of 39.72% in a month. Our sweet tooth just got more expensive.

3. Data: Yesterday’s Weekly Unemployment Claims showed negative revisions upwards from the previous two weeks; another ‘hidden’ piece of data not being fully considered by traders, perhaps like the Non Farm Employment Change data last week reporting declining workweek hours.
https://www.angrymetatraders.com/post/usd-hidden-jobs-data-shows-potentially-intriguing-weakness

2. China Economy: Deflation continues to be reported via the CPI and PPI statistics. Also, value of properties for housing and commercial real estate face significant headwinds. The real estate sector including ancillary infrastructure is at least 21% of China’s total GDP.

1. Risk Appetite: U.S equity indices finished Thursday’s trading achieving apex highs. The S&P 500 is challenging the 5000.00 level. Gold is near 2033.00 USD and WTI Crude Oil is above 76.00 USD as of this writing.

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Raindrops for the 2nd of February

by with No Comment AMT MarketsAssetsFeatured Highlights

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Raindrops for the 2nd of February

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10. Risk Appetite: WTI Crude Oil almost serene around 74.00 USD, as bombastic rhetoric remains loud involving the Middle East.

9. South Africa: President Cyril Ramaphosa expected to announce the country’s election date when delivering the State of the Nation Address on 8th of February.

8. Tesla: Negative media coverage and an always defiant Elon Musk gravitate towards each other, share price is around 188.88 USD.

7. China: Shanghai Composite Index (SSE) hovering near 2,730 as of this moment.

6. Gold: After near-term lows a challenge of highs as USD has gotten slightly weaker.

5. Central Banks: All bark and no bite yet, as financial institutions desire interest rate cuts from Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of England.

4. India: Nifty 50 Index near 21,865 as of this writing, it has gained more than 101% over the last five years – yes, plus one-hundred and one percent.

3. Forex Reactions: Recent short-term volatility and reversals seen as expected, patience still needed as USD mid-term outlook remains weaker.

2. U.S Equities: S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and Dow Jones 30 have produced nervous results but still near record highs, as U.S Treasury yields have edged lower this week.

1. Data: U.S Non Farm Employment Change and Average Hourly Earnings today, this as some major corporations shed employees but labor market remains rather tight. Broad markets will react to the outcomes.

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Cautious Trading as Key Data and Outlooks Await Impetus

by with No Comment AMT MarketsAssetsFeatured Highlights

Cautious Trading as Key Data and Outlooks Await Impetus

The start of trading this week could prove to be slightly adventurous for speculators as financial institutions return to the markets and start to take positions for their clients. Having survived the past two and a half weeks of holiday season trading, market action will now focus on immediate, mid and long-term goals and outlooks depending on time frames and targets. Slightly nervous trading was on display last week, but some traders may believe their is plenty of room for more optimism and may be suspicious of the results delivered.

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Gold Five Day Chart as of 8th of January 2024

Day traders should look at some barometers before they participate in the near-term. Gold has come off highs seen late last week, but remains within the higher elements of its six month price range. Its selloff from apex values last week perhaps correlates to U.S equities and USD turbulence which has also been experienced.

Last Friday’s reaction to the U.S jobs numbers was fascinating. The numbers delivered an initial shock to folks who wanted to react quickly. Hiring the last month increased more than expected, which might have caused the momentary bullish surge in the USD. Only to be confronted swiftly by further investigation of the jobs data which showed previous months statistics had been revised downwards. This acknowledgement set off selling of the USD and technical whipsaw results.

Day traders participating in Forex this past Friday likely experienced a range of emotions. If the market correlations are correct regarding the USD and the reactions seen, trading in gold also seemed to mirror the price action. Interestingly, gold touched a low of nearly 2024.00 USD on Friday in the wake of the jobs report, surged higher to around 2064.00 and then reversed lower again.

The notion that gold is trading within sight of Friday’s lows is interesting for both the precious metal and trying to understand where USD sentiment will lean early this week.

Behavioral sentiment remains rather optimistic, however nervous headlines during the holiday season may have caused cautious shadows to grow darker, particularly as light trading volumes affected results. Today and tomorrow will prove interesting in the broad markets, this as financial institutions return in full and as they brace for U.S inflation numbers later this week.

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S&P 500 One Month Chart as of 8th of January 2024

Nervous short term trading is likely today and tomorrow as price equilibrium is sought. U.S equity indices have backed away slightly from their flirtations with all-time highs, but even as selling developed the past week highs are still in sight and are likely still being dreamed about by many institutions. U.S Treasury yields will also be a good indicator for Forex traders early this week regarding how comfortable financial institutions are with their current outlooks.

Monday, 8th of January, Germany Factory Orders – a slight gain of 0.3% was reported today, which was below the 1.1% expectation. The German economy is starting to show signs of economic growth, but has major hurdles to still climb. The lackluster German numbers may keep the ECB in a rather neutral stance for the mid-term. Which might help a bullish EUR/USD outlook if the U.S Fed is seen as the first major central bank which will have to cut interest rates.

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AUD/USD Three Month Chart as of 8th January 2024

Tuesday, 9th of January, Australia Retail Sales – the anticipated climb of 1.2% is significantly higher than the negative -0.3% result from last month. A good outcome via the Retail Sales could help the Australian Dollar reignite some positive momentum. CPI data will come from Australia on Wednesday, which will certainly affect the AUD/USD too.

Wednesday, 10th of January, U.S Ten-Year Bond Auction – though day traders may not be too involved regarding the sale of U.S Treasuries, the results from the auction will have an affect on Forex. U.S Treasury yields should be monitored.

Thursday, 11th of January, U.S Consumer Price Index – a slew of CPI results will get the attention of financial institutions. The inflation data is expected to show a slight decrease in the Core CPI result, but show a slight gain in the broad number. This will likely be the most heavily traded day since the third week of December. There will be a reaction from the inflation reports. If the numbers come in around the estimates this may help the bearish mid-term outlooks for the USD. If the results are shockingly stronger, the USD would turn bullish. Day traders need to be careful in the midst of the Consumer Price Index publications because volatility is expected.

Friday, 12th of January, China CPI – a decrease is expected from the Asian giant. Deflationary concerns are shadowing China’s economy. The expected number of minus -0.4% would actually be an improvement compared to the last reading which was minus -0.5%. The USD/CNY has been rumored to have been experiencing some ‘hands on’ management from China. Investors continue to be nervous about China’s economic outlook and would like to see signs of improvement.

Friday, 12th of January, U.K Gross Domestic Product – a gain of 0.2% is being anticipated. Any growth from the U.K GDP would be welcomed considering the recessionary data which has been lingering. The GBP/USD will react to the results and bullish momentum in the currency pair could be sparked by a better than anticipated number.