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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Raindrops for 16th of February

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Raindrops for 16th of February

10. Bitcoin is trading within sight of 52,000.00 USD, the digital asset was trading near 38,700.00 on the 23rd of January, which is over 34% in less than a month. That’s a lot of air in the balloon folks.

9. Gold: The precious metal has climbed above 2000.00 USD, this after a drop to 1985.00 USD on the 14th of February. Sentiment is uneasy.

8. Not April Fool’s Day: Iran has announced ‘plans’ to build a naval base on Antarctica, after declaring ‘property rights’.

7. WTI Crude Oil: The price of the commodity continues to battle the 77.00 USD level. Higher energy costs will not be looked on favorably by inflation hawks.

6. U.S Treasuries: Yields should be watched today after having provided anxious results this week, U.S equity indices will continue to react to the ‘bonds’ market.

5. Nvidia: After delivering superlative results in 2023, the company has announced the release of Chat with RTX, which allows independent AI chatbot capabilities to interface with your own documents, videos, etc., providing insights from personal queries.

4. Chinese Property: Investments dropped by over 9% in 2023. China’s government faces a clash between socialistic ideology in order to help the market versus practical supply and demand realities.

3. U.K: Gross Domestic Product numbers came in with negative results yesterday for Britain, the combination of recessionary GDP and stubborn inflation is stagflation. Bank of England faces a difficult decision. Will the BoE get proactive and cut interest rates before the Federal Reserve? GBP/USD is below 1.25800 this morning.

2. Data: Stronger than expected U.S CPI statistics caused bedlam on Tuesday, but yesterday’s Retail Sales came in weaker. The ‘disappointing’ consumer spending numbers were likely welcomed by the Federal Reserve and financial institutions. Producer Price Index statistics will be published today, surprise inflation results could jostle financial markets.

1. Forex: Day traders witnessed whipsaw results early this week and should remain cautious going into this weekend. Patience will be needed as USD centric outlooks adjust to nervous shifts in behavioral sentiment.

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Thoughts for the 8th of December

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Thoughts for the 8th of December

10. Book: A History of Venice by John Julius Norwich.

9. Music: Gram Parsons (featuring Emmylou Harris) playing Ooh Las Vegas.

8. Artificial Intelligence: Speed and processing advances will continue to make AI a buzzword in 2024, this as quantum computing looms in the distance.

7. Trading Volumes: Speculators should note there are about two full weeks of trading left before ‘thin’ holiday markets will begin to be seen. Meaning financial institutions while being cautious, will also start to position their assets according to their outlooks for early next year.

6. Energy Sector: WTI Crude Oil, Brent, Natural Gas and Unleaded Gasoline continue to challenge support levels as long-term lows remain in sight.

5. China: Important inflation numbers via Consumer Price Index statistics will come from the nation early Saturday, negative results are expected.

4. Risk Appetite: Optimism continues to be encouraging within behavioral sentiment, this as U.S equities remain near highs, the USD leans towards a mid-term outlook with potential weakness, and gold stays above 2000.00 USD per ounce.

3. USD/JPY: Bearish momentum continues in the currency pair, price velocity built speed yesterday and this morning’s trading has been dynamic.

2. Data: U.S jobs numbers will be released today, the Non-Farm Employment Change and Average Hourly Earnings reports will create reactions. However, unless the results are surprising, this data may simply work as an affirmation for existing risk appetite.

1. Federal Reserve: The Fed’s next FOMC Statement will be on the 13th of December, this knowledge will shadow the broad markets today and early next week.

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Trading Tips: Perspectives and Gaining Behavioral Sentiment

Trading Tips: Perspectives and Gaining Behavioral Sentiment

Data is everywhere. AI has helped increase the level of information accessible to day traders. However, the quality of the information and its insights remains questionable – suspect. Systems relying on technical, fundamentals, algos, and the magic word ‘quants’ are tools which can help a person make their decisions. Unfortunately they do not guarantee you are going to make money.

Profitable results in trading remain difficult to attain. Day traders – speculators – continue to look for a golden goose. Something or someone who can deliver profits on a steady basis remains hard to find. This article is to help you gain perspective, it is a trading tip. There are no secrets of the temple coming, but it may be time you stop looking for secrets which do not exist.

Nasdaq Composite Six Months Chart as of 12th August 2023

Trying to look forward and gaining genuine insights remains tough. Technical charts, fundamentals, opinions from experts all remain problematic to actually use in real time. The markets in a sense are alive, the environment is constantly changing. The moment information is shared it becomes old. Time and price action move fast. You can slow down the ‘game of trading’ by using different perspectives and practicing new ways to consider the dynamic values that are in flux that you are witnessing.

Behavioral sentiment – insights – regarding what the largest traders are going to do in the short, mid and long-term would be relevant. Understanding the asset you want to trade is important, understanding the inclination of the marketplace, price action – velocity – and timeframes of potential volatility is crucial. A key component would be to find a way to time a trade knowing what direction an asset is going to move.

This remains elusive for nearly all traders.

Again, this particular article is not going to solve this problem for you. It is to acknowledge the problem exists. We can have all the data in the world, past performances statistics, know what the markets are predicted to do, but the ‘game’ still needs to be played. Over 90% of day traders loss their money and eventually give up. Traders wagering on the markets need a way to put the odds of success in their favor. Folks may wonder why angrymetatraders.com writes about fantasy sports within its culture/ sports topics, it is because there is a correlation to sports and financial markets for speculators.

Day traders in many ways are not really participating in the marketplace, they are betting on the outcome of the results. The tiny trades of the majority of retail speculators are not affecting price action, sometimes the trades aren’t even being put into the real market – they are being traded virtually. Read about the topic B book trading within our articles if you have time.

Like sports gamblers who are not playing in the game, speculators are using their perceived knowledge of financial assets and past results to bet on future outcomes. A key ingredient to having successful trades that work in the financial markets is to have solid knowledge and a sense of what can develop as assets trade on a particular day. There are complexities within each sector, like every game being played in a variety of sports.

Gamblers not only bet on the outcome of the game, they also bet on the outcome of different components within the ‘contest’ – player stats, halftime scores, turnovers. Traders can do the same thing by speculating on an asset over different timeframes, and they can sometimes trade what are known as ‘options’ too, this to hedge on their positions or sometimes simply wager on their belief that a Forex pair or a share (stock) price is going to move in different ways during a certain period of time.

Understanding behavioral sentiment is important. The meshing of technical interpretation with fundamental data, and the way it affects perception and the tendencies of potential decisions to be made regarding outcomes is not easy. However, grasping the outlook of other financial market participants can improve a day traders results, if they put effort into perspectives and apply this to their risk taking tactics.

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AI Noise and Manipulation Feared as a Potential Threat

AI Noise and Manipulation Feared as a Potential Threat

Yesterday’s AI generated graphic which claimed an explosion had happened around the Pentagon in Washington D.C. sent equity indices into a brief selloff mode. However, the graphic was soon proven to be false news as people in Washington confirmed there had been no explosion.

AI has the capacity to cause surprise storms if some people try to trigger manipulation in the financial world and elsewhere by using ‘false’ data and graphics. ‘Bad actors’ within A.I will likely be compared to ‘ransomware’ folks in the world of high-tech, and people and institutions will have to react quickly to distinguish between fact and fiction. The ability of AI to manipulate the markets yesterday is only the beginning and we need to be prepared for more stories like the Washington D.C fake.

AI Mania is Building in the Media and People are Concerned about Wrong ‘Facts’

AI machine learning is coded by people and some of them are prone to bias, which raises the specter of bad input being used in systems that serve the public and clients in an ill-fated manner. Putting all of our trust into an AI system is wrong minded, just as we do not put all of our trust into Wikipedia information, and are aware facts should be checked on within a variety of sources.

Yesterday’s deep fake AI graphic highlights the need for financial markets to discern in a timely fashion attempts to manipulate narrative. Certainly some traders got hurt during yesterday’s reaction to the false report of an explosion in Washington. The dishonest graphic made instant news globally, and social media gadflies raced to report ‘the explosion’ and then had to quickly say they had been tricked. Data bias in AI is just as problematic and perhaps more dangerous, because what is presented as facts will always have to be given critical consideration by its users.

The prospect of bias producing arrogant AI systems ‘tools’ full of hubris as they assert ‘truth’ could develop and create self-perpetuating machines full of wrong details. This could happen as AI searches the internet for information and relies on data that is poor, and uses statistics from its own system posted elsewhere which could manifest falsehoods. The prospect of AI using its own potentially bad coding, and previous input distributed into other information networks in theory could lead to stubborn ecosystems which insists that they are correct, when they are actually not accurate.

Middle of the Road Results will make Users Choose Direction Sometimes

Public AI systems tend to frequently deliver ‘middle of the road’ result aggregates so they do not offend, leaving the users with mixed insights and without a firm stance. Perhaps if users understand this circumstance it can be perceived as a good outcome, because the person will have to do their own critical thinking while choosing direction. There is a danger that politically correct thinking which is coded into AI could lead to more vanilla and less flavor. The fear of offending people with facts may become a danger for AI, and coders will have to decide how to program searches as they produce objective and subjective outcomes.

Learning has changed as the internet has grown more robust with ‘facts’. Students often do not feel it is necessary to master particulars by reading a range of books. Instead they tend to rely on their mobile phones and laptops for their knowledge, avoiding in depth study on their own which would offer more insights and create critical thinking. This can and does lead to the use of ‘expertise’ produced by the internet which is incorrect.

Let’s also consider the notion that public use of artificial intelligence has won a large amount of publicity in the past year, but machine learning capabilities have in fact been used for a long time. The media has done a fairly good job of stirring the masses into a furor, and solid marketing has led to AI being the center of conversation the past handful of months.

AI is far from perfect because it is being built by flawed humans. In 1952 IBM via Arthur Samuel built a program allowing a computer to play checkers and learn how to improve its outcomes through ‘play’. In 1997 an IBM system called Deep Blue beat world chess champion Gary Kasparov in a six game match. The 45 year gap should be noted as we contemplate how AI will develop in the future.