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Lack of Big U.S Data this Week but Fed Officials to be Heard

by with No Comment AMT MarketsDataFeatured Highlights

Lack of Big U.S Data this Week but Fed Officials to be Heard

There will be an absence of large trading volume in many markets today, because of the U.S and Canada Labor Day holiday celebrations. Results from forex markets should be considered with a healthy dose of skepticism by day traders. If you choose to participate today, using entry price orders may protect you against the possibility of price volatility due to quiet markets having the ability to create sudden jolts.

Day traders are advised to be on the lookout for potential surges to develop on Tuesday. U.S financial institutions returning to the markets in full could possibly react to economic data from the States that they may not have acted upon yet, this as outlooks may have been reconsidered over the Labor Day weekend. Equities and indices, U.S Treasuries, and gold should get plenty of attention this week as summer trading comes to an end.

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EUR/USD Three Months Chart as of 4th Sept. 2023

Monday, 4th of September, E.U ECB President Christine Lagarde – the ECB chief will be speaking in London later today. The ECB President might get the attention of EUR/USD traders who may still be scratching their heads regarding last week’s decline in the EUR and trying to figure out why it happened.

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AUD/USD Three Months Chart as of 4th Sept. 2023

Tuesday, 5th of September, Australia RBA Cash Rate – the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to hold its ground and make no major changes to interest rate policy. The AUD/USD is trading at lows the RBA has acknowledged are troubling. However, there seems to be little the RBA can really do except to wait out the U.S Federal Reserve’s rhetoric to change. As a note, GDP numbers will come from Australia on Wednesday.

Wednesday, 6th of September, Canada BoC Overnight Rate – the Bank of Canada is expected to keep its interest rate policy steadfast without any changes. The USD/CAD could react momentarily to the Bank of Canada’s Rate Statement.

Thursday, 7th of September, China Trade Balance – economic statistics from China have been troubling over the mid-term and there is no reason to think they are suddenly going to turn optimistic. China is receiving plenty of negative attention from ‘Western’ analysts, but the concerns expressed could be legitimate. Slumping growth, real estates problems, and the shadow of deflation are issues in China.

Thursday, 7th of September, U.S Federal Reserve Officials – several high ranking members from the Fed will be speaking at various conferences across the States. Following the lackluster economic data published in the U.S the past couple of weeks, comments from the Federal Reserve members should be given attention to see if they begin to acknowledge interest rate policy should turn more dovish. USD traders will certainly have the ability to spark Forex on Thursday if rhetoric from the ‘officials’ starts to change tone.

Friday, 8th of September, Japan Final GDP – the Gross Domestic Product numbers could prove interesting for USD/JPY traders. Growth is expected to show a gain of 1.4%. The GDP Price Index results should be watched and are expected to match last month’s number with a gain of 3.4%.

Saturday, 9th of September, China CPI and PPI – the inflation numbers will be of interest to investors. These data reports could prove more important than the Trade Balance results released earlier in the week. The USD/CNY should be monitored in the wake of these inflation (deflation) results.

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China and U.S Data Early and Important as Central Banks Fret

by with No Comment Behavioral SentimentCentral BanksFeatured Highlights

China and U.S Data Early and Important as Central Banks Fret

Monday, 17th July 2023, China GDP and Industrial Production – the economic numbers coming from China have shown steady signs of a downturn. Gross Domestic Product figures however are expected to increase this month, but some analysts may question transparency issues regarding the reported statistics. Industrial Production numbers are expected to fall, which on the surface may cause people to question any positive results from the GDP. Retail Sales will also be published on Monday. The housing market in China remains critically important in the nation and some borrowers appear to be suffering financial stress. While many global retail traders might not be invested in China, the nation serves as a good barometer for the world’s economy, particularly regarding consumer demand.

Monday, 17th July 2023, U.S Empire State Manufacturing Index – the New York based report is expected to have a negative reading. It should be noted June’s data came in stronger than expected. Another positive surprise outcome would continue to show economists are finding it difficult to gauge the U.S economy. Last Friday’s solid Consumer Sentiment reading from the University of Michigan highlighted the rather complex results from the U.S, weaker than expected inflation numbers are also factoring into a muddled sentiment. However, the Federal Reserve is still believed to be leaning towards another interest rate hike on the 26th of July. Day traders should remain alert.

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USD/CAD 3 Month Chart as of 17th July 2023

Tuesday, 18th July 2023, Canada Consumer Price Index – the inflation numbers from Canada are expected to show a slight decrease in the velocity of rising prices. The numbers are likely to affect the USD/CAD which is trading near lows last challenged in September of 2022.

Tuesday, 18th July 2023, U.S Retail Sales – considering last week’s improved Consumer Sentiment numbers recently from the States, demonstrating better retail results compared to last month will not be a surprise. Earnings season on Wall Street gets underway this coming week and solid Retail Sales numbers may help mid-term outlook regarding equities. However, behavioral sentiment is fragile.

Wednesday, 19th July 2023, U.K CPI – the inflation numbers from Britain are expected to show a slight decrease in the rate of price expansion, but any result above 8% via the broad data will not make many folks feel better. GBP/USD speculators should monitor the reports.

Thursday, 20th July 2023, U.S Existing Home Sales – the rising costs of mortgages in the States is having an effect on the marketplace. Signs of stress in housing is an intriguing barometer regarding the outlook for the American economy. Better Consumer Sentiment and Retail Sales mixed with less than glowing numbers from the housing sector could make for a troubling diet for traders to consider and act upon.

Friday, 21st July 2023, U.K Retail Sales – recessionary results are shadowing Britain. Poor results from the retail sector would not help behavioral sentiment, particularly if inflation numbers have continued to show they are unrelenting two days before. The Bank of England is in an uncomfortable spot, this as the GBP/USD trades near highs it last saw in April of 2022.