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Trading Dangers: Profit Seeking and Federal Reserve Dynamics

by with No Comment AssetsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

Trading Dangers: Profit Seeking and Federal Reserve Dynamics

A 0.25% or 0.50% interest rate cut is the talking point for speculators and financial institutions now, as the U.S Federal Reserve readies its FOMC Statement and prepares to present its Federal Funds Rate this Wednesday. While day traders will certainly listen to plenty of noise being created by pundits and wager, and financial institutions actively operate within the market place and seek profits, long-term investors are likely not very nervous, nor concerned with the monthly Federal Reserve announcements about to be delivered. Perhaps day traders should learn from this long-term insight.

Long-term investors understand the Federal Reserve will be cutting the Federal Funds Rate back to its mean average eventually. While the Fed may only cut by 0.25% this week, over the next six months the U.S central bank is likely to cut by 0.75% or so. Investors who are comfortable with their portfolio positions believe they know what the Fed will be doing and they are not concerned with daily gyrations in the marketplace. Yes, long-term investors will rebalance their positions occasionally, but they do not overtrade.

However, speculators need to be braced for the price velocity which will develop over the next few days. Small price movements in Forex, U.S equity indices and commodities creates havoc for folks who are using leverage and short-term timeframes to bet on outcomes. Nervous sentiment has created velocity, reversals, and unreliable trends recently which will be tested again the next few days.

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Gold Six Month Chart as of 16th Sept. 2024

Financial institutions are part of this turbulent landscape as they use algos geared towards working models like trend, mean revision (statistical arbitrage) and other dynamics which create huge amounts of volume and move the markets. Let there be no doubt that the broad markets will react violently on Wednesday in the wake of the Federal Reserve’s actions and rhetoric. Last week’s trading produced new highs in gold, and buying in the U.S major equity indices increased starting on Wednesday and pushed towards highs once again.

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GBP/USD Six Month Chart as of 16th Sept. 2024.

The question every one has is what is the Fed going to do this week? I believe the Fed is going to cut by 0.25%, and say that if current economic conditions via the jobs numbers and growth remains lackluster that another interest rate cut will be possible in November. Based on the knowledge that central banks remain wary of stubborn inflation and appear to be debating what the inflation rate will be over the mid-term, it would be surprising to see the Federal Reserve suddenly turn aggressive given their history the past handful of years.

Having seen the ECB stay cautious last Thursday even though economic data shows recession is still being battled across Europe is a strong indicator regarding what the Fed’s likely thinking. The U.K will release important inflation numbers this Wednesday, but the BoE is probably going to remain rather mute on Thursday because they cut interest rates already in August. Again, central banks remain in turtle mode, they are not rabbits.

A dangerous consideration is how will the large financial institutions react to this quagmire being caused by cautious central banks? As said, many long term investors believe the Fed will have to be dovish over the mid-term. Lackluster economic data from China, Europe and the U.S feed into a belief interest rates cuts will continue to be delivered. Day traders live and die via the price action created by financial institutions.

Potential Black Swan events aside, behavioral sentiment generated by short and mid-term results will likely be geared towards the notion that financial institutions also believe global central banks will have to be dovish over the mid-term. This doesn’t include the Bank of Japan which is its own animal and has delivered a rather admirable bearish trend the past two months. The BoJ will release its Policy Rate this Friday and are likely to remain standing in place.

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USD/JPY Six Month Chart as of 16th Sept. 2024

So what can day traders who are nervous that volatility will cause great harm over the next few days do? They can always decide to sit on the sidelines and not bet. Long-term investors who plan on holding their assets over the span of a few years are not so concerned about what the central banks are doing short-term – except to say investors are obviously hoping that solid fiscal and monetary policy are being practiced.

Financial institutions engaged in their funds trying to create profitable returns are the folks that need to be kept an eye on, their behavioral sentiment will drive markets in the short and mid-term. Speculators who are trying to take advantage of the dynamics caused by large trading houses this week need to practice solid risk management. While it might be fun to have wagers on potential sudden moves in the coming days, the Federal Reserve’s FOMC Statement and Jerome Powell’s press conference will cause short-term pandemonium.

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous ‘Just the Facts Jack’ on the 14th of Sept.

by with No Comment AMT MarketsAssetsFeatured Highlights

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous 'Just the Facts Jack' on the 14th of Sept.

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10. Word of the Day: Quaestuary, the usage of the word comes from William Manchester’s book A World lit only by Fire. The word is now considered obsolete. Manchester used the Latin word, quaestiarii, to describe profit making by the Roman Catholic Church during the Middle Ages and into the Renaissance. Church ‘officials’ would use their positions of power to raise money dubiously. Promising absolution to the naive via treacherous claims which included the charging of payments for potential sins committed in the future, and a more lenient purgatory for already deceased members of a family who were waiting to be allowed into heaven because of past transgressions.

9. Undecided: With less than two months before the U.S election for President, swing States are crucial battlegrounds for candidates Trump and Harris. Turning purple into red or blue is the prime task for the Republicans and Democrats. Economy, immigration, foreign policy, reproductive rights are among the talking points. Which side can receive the most votes via promises that will be hard to accomplish?

8. Artificial Intelligence: Early this week Oracle Corporation released revenue results and projections showing that profits are increasing due to demand for data centers as the use of AI expands. Cloud services provided by Oracle has become the corporation’s largest source of growth. Investments in big data centers are getting competitive. Data4 has recently announced they are going to invest approximately 300 million EUR into a data center facility in Paiana, Greece. Data4 led by Olivier Micheli, CEO, has announced that it plans on investing around 7 billion EUR into 2030 for expansion.

7. Crude Oil: WTI Crude Oil briefly went above the 70.00 USD mark on Friday, but went into the weekend near 69.33. U.S economic data this coming week (besides the U.S Fed on the 18th) will be limited to manufacturing readings and retail sales data. The notions that the U.S economy is struggling via weaker employment numbers and lackluster GDP, European data remaining murky, while China is not exactly robust is likely causing speculative demand in Crude Oil to remain low. Global energy supply is solid and the Middle East conflict remains somewhat muted.

6. Whipsaw Gains: Major U.S equity indices moved upwards as the Dow 30, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 all produced better weekly results. However, improved momentum mostly occurred as equities reversed from nervous lows on Wednesday. The Dow 30 and S&P 500 are within sight of apex values, while the Nasdaq isn’t far behind. U.S Treasury yields also dropped lower via their totals for the week with the 5, 7, and 10 Year Notes approaching yields last seen in the spring of 2023. The 30 Year Bonds are traversing lower too, but will have to penetrate early 2024 levels to then challenge depths from early 2023.

5. Inflation: Global central banks are having a large internal debate about their target inflation numbers. Trying to agree on what the neutral rate – mean average – over the next year should be is causing central banks to remain cautious about inflation projections. While it is clearly evident that Europe and the U.S are facing economic headwinds the ECB, Fed and BoE seemingly refuse to step on the gas pedal and become aggressively dovish. However, financial institutions who frequently use their mid-term outlooks as guidance continue to lean into their trading positions and seemingly wager on the central banks having to become more dovish. How much can each central bank cut by over the next 6 months? Why not cut by 0.50% to inject easier borrowing rates now? Because apparently it seems all the central banks remain nervous about inflation remaining stubborn. The word stagflation still comes to mind. The decline in Crude Oil prices seen the past few weeks may be a hopeful sign for lower costs.

4. USD/JPY: The currency pair finished trading near the 140.775 ratio on Friday. Trading in the USD/JPY appears to be driven by the notion that financial institutions believe the U.S Federal Reserve is going to have to cut the Federal Funds Rate by 0.75% over the next six months. Behavioral sentiment has a breathtaking history of producing strong trends in the USD/JPY. The Bank of Japan will announce their Monetary Policy Statement on the 20th of September. The USD/JPY was trading near 162.000 in July and its decline lower seems to have surprised some, but why? The BoJ is likely going to sound cautious this coming week, but sitting on their hands and allowing their global counterparts to become more dovish may be enough to keep the USD/JPY within its lower price realm.

3. China Data: Numbers published early this morning showed that New Home Prices continue to fall, Industrial Production has decreased, Retail Sales have dropped, and the Unemployment Rate has risen. China’s economy is suffering. The USD/CYN looks too low at the current rate of 7.0925. The Shanghai Composite (SSE) has fallen to nearly 2,704 and touching lows from early February of 2024. The SSE is down roughly -13.46% over the last year. The Chinese government’s desire to manage the economy with a tight grip continues to produce fractures and should be reconsidered.

2. Gold: The precious metal finished Friday’s trading near 2,577.00. Yesterday’s values hit all-time record prices for Gold versus the USD. The 2,586.00 vicinity was touched before reversing slightly lower. The ability to remain near apex highs going into the weekend highlights large traders likely still have a taste for gold and that long-term investors remain bullish. Is nervousness due to perceived global central bank ineptitude helping to create more gold buying? Short-term speculators need to remain careful within these heights.

1. FOMC Prediction: The European Central Bank’s decision to cut by only 0.25% this past Thursday is almost a sure sign the Federal Reserve will mirror the ECB on the 18th of September. Last week’s prediction by AMT that the ECB would only cut by 0.25% proved to be true, and our outlook for the FOMC’s Federal Fund Rate decision is also a cautious 0.25% cut. While the U.S Consumer Price Index and PPI info published this past Wednesday and Thursday showed inflation is under control, the data also shows a stubborn streak. However, an erosion of inflation is taking place and while the target ‘neutral’ rate is likely being debated behind closed doors, it is also apparent to most outside observers that the Fed is being too cautious and will be ‘forced’ to cut this coming week, November 2024, and early in 2025.

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Remarks for the 14th of July 2024

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Remarks for the 14th of July 2024

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10. Words of the Day: Political rhetoric is using platitudes and subterfuge camouflaging verbal nonsense, masking a vacuum of non-results and causing fatigue of populist promises.

9. Harris Prediction: After the NATO press conference in which Biden was more lucid but still made mistakes, it is beginning to feel like Kamala Harris is being given room to audition for the Presidency by the Democratic machine. If her polling numbers show improvement over the next couple of weeks, look for Harris to replace Biden at the DNC in Chicago, if her polling numbers are not good enough in the eyes of the elite power brokers, it is possible Biden may be asked to give up his delegates, allowing for an open convention.

8: Zombie Inflation: Data results via the U.S CPI caused a reaction in the broad markets, and volatility in Forex. While the broad monthly Consumer Price Index number on Thursday was minus -0.1%, the PPI numbers on Friday came in higher than expected causing some to feel that inflation remains a plague. However, if the Producer Price Index was interpreted as being higher because rising prices are coming via more expensive employee costs (which might see an end to the cycle sooner rather than later if jobs data continues to weaken) this is why there might not have been a violent Forex reversal on Friday. And Consumer Sentiment numbers from the University of Michigan came in below expectations again, and inflation expectations via the consumer survey showed some erosion.

7. Federal Fund Rates: Financial institutions have clearly begun to factor in the belief an interest rate cut will occur in September. The Fed which has been cautious consistently the past seven months may now have enough ammunition to consider becoming more dovish. A September interest rate cut has certainly been factored into Forex and Treasury yields, and there is a growing tide of sentiment which believes the weaker GDP numbers combined with the potential of less inflation could spark additional Federal Funds Rate cuts this calendar year. Outlook fueled by optimism regarding a more dovish Fed could be a factor in the markets the remainder of July.

6. Gold and Silver: Commodity prices are soaring as speculators pursue bullish trends. Gold finished this week above 2,410.00 USD. Silver is traversing above 30.00 USD per ounce for the first time since 2011 and 2012. These two metals are not always correlated, and day traders should remember Silver remains a rather easily mined commodity which sometimes influences downwards pressure because supply can be increased. Having said that, Gold and Silver have had solid bullish trends since February of this year.

5. Thaw: Bitcoin is near 60,000 as of this writing. The crypto winter has seemingly ended and many folks are standing in the sunlight and proclaiming long-term projections of Bitcoin as it maintains a higher price range. It should be remembered the most significant percentage of trading volumes within cryptos reside heavily within the top tier, and the ‘assets’ ranked lower remain in wagering cesspools. Cryptocurrency remains speculatively dangerous, and largely a place to move illicit cash with the perception the money can be kept ‘dark’.

4. USD/JPY: The Bank of Japan won last week’s game of fire. The U.S Consumer Price Index numbers dealt a blow to the blind fury of speculative buying in the USD/JPY, and there is also a belief among many that the BoJ added onto the selling momentum of the currency pair too with a well timed intervention. The currency pair which was near the 161.640 juncture suddenly dived to nearly 157.420. The USD/JPY has gone into this weekend near the 157.900 ratio. The USD/JPY saga is not finished yet, and froth via bullish endeavors remains dangerous. Day traders here have been warned.

3. China: Friday’s Trade Balance numbers were good, compared to the rather weak CPI results seen on the 10th of July which were negative. China’s Communist Central Committee begins a Plenary Session tomorrow until the 18th. Will they speak in platitudes? The USD/CNY has certainly seen a ‘soft’ devaluation since February of this year, but the currency pair did go into the weekend near the 7.2500 mark which is off the high of 7.2765 seen this past Thursday. China still must improve consumer sentiment domestically and this remains a difficult struggle as ramifications from the implosion in China housing values mires the landscape. GDP numbers will come from the nation on Monday.

2. Behavioral Sentiment: Equities and indices, Forex, and commodities are all experiencing risk appetite permutations. While it might be tempting for retail traders to bet on lower reversals of trends, sometimes its much easier to simply ride optimistic waves. Certainly there will be days when financial assets struggle, but the apex heights of the Dow Jones 30, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 should be treated with respect. Treasury yields are at mid-term depths and appear ready to traverse lower.

1. Trump: The attempted assassination of Donald Trump on Saturday in Pennsylvania will galvanize his supporters and likely push many people towards voting for him November. The amount of vitriol Trump has endured from his political opponents including the highest echelons of the Democrats and many in the media needs to be contemplated and quieted. Opposition to political ideology is fine, but the use of hyperbolic musings has led the U.S to a dangerous place. It would be wise for pragmatic adults to rejoin political discourse. Traders should watch the financial markets early this week to see if the U.S political front causes a reaction.

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Blossoms for the 31st of May 2024

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Blossoms for the 31st of May 2024

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10. European Supremacy: The NBA Championship between Boston and Dallas is set to begin on the 6th of June. If the Dallas Mavericks win, it will mean Giannis Antetokounmpo in 2021, Nikola Jokic in 2023, and Luka Doncic in 2024 were victors, and are cementing the terrain as the best players.

9. Brisk Breeze: The need for ‘chill’ among AI and server companies isn’t only about attitude. The advent of quantum computing will add to the wintry demands. Vertiv, Asia Vital Components, and Auras Technology are a few of the enterprises in the industrial environment sector helping deliver precision cooling for the technologies to work efficiently.

8. Glitches: Stalled data within the S&P 500 and Dow Jones 30 for their index calculations took place yesterday for nearly one hour, but individual trading within companies via stock prices appears to have been unaffected. Futures trading for the two indices weren’t affected. On Monday the 18th of March, Nasdaq suffered a tech problem that stopped pre-market trading for a couple of hours.

7. OPEC: The cartel will conduct a one day online meeting this coming Sunday. Production levels will be discussed, among other issues. The price of WTI Crude Oil as of this writing is below 78.00 USD per barrel. While news remains stuck in hyperbole from the Middle East, the price of Crude Oil has declined since the first week of April.

6. Conviction: Donald Trump was found guilty in a NYC courtroom yesterday, but the verdict is certain to be appealed. The law of unintended consequences could come into play from the U.S as reactions generate. The perceived notion that ineffectual and non-credible leadership is mounting in the U.S, lends credence to some people around the globe regarding dwindling American exceptionalism.

5. Results: South Africa voting counts will be finalized sometime this weekend, India’s election count will be known on the 4th of June. The unknown outcomes are affecting the USD/ZAR and USD/INR, and more volatility in the currency pairs should be expected early next week.

4. Coincident: GDP results came in around their expectations yesterday. Growth numbers produced a gain of 1.3%, while the GDP Price Index showed a 3.0% climb. The data produced does show the U.S economy is slowing and is another ripple to be considered by analysts and traders.

3. USD/JPY: The Bank of Japan appears to be betting on weaker U.S data to continue, and potential dovish Fed rhetoric on the 12th of June to propel the USD/JPY lower, thus helping the BoJ to remain on the sideline and avoid an intervention for the moment. The BoJ will release their Policy Rate decision on the 14th of June and many eyes will be on the central bank’s Monetary Policy Statement.

2. Inflation: The Core PCE Price Index report outcome today is anticipated to be around the 0.3% ratio. The Federal Reserve pays plenty of attention to this publication and if the number meets the expectation or comes in below it, this could cause a repeat of the Fed’s dovish December 2023 FOMC Statement. Financial institutions have already begun wagering that the Federal Funds Rate could be cut this summer and later again this year. Many assets will react to today’s inflation report.

1. Behavioral Sentiment: Nervous price action has been seen in the equity indices and Forex this week. Investors may have felt they got a little ahead of their risk appetite curve and now appear to be waiting on more solid impetus to reconfirm their outlooks. Choppy price action has certainly been fueled by U.S Treasury yields which increased earlier this week. Losses in the S&P 500, Dow 30 and Nasdaq the past handful of days are now waiting for buyers to reemerge. The question day traders may want to consider is if financial institutions and large investors believe assets will cost less next week, or if prices have now hit worthwhile support levels which will spur on buying today?

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Speculative Notions: Gold and the USD as the Casino Lives

by with No Comment AMT MarketsAssetsFeatured Highlights

Speculative Notions: Gold and the USD as the Casino Lives

Notes on speculation via the prism of Gold and the USD, with questions about value as short-term wagers versus long-term investment are considered.

Speculative forces eventually run out of power, leaving investors and businesses to conduct their affairs via the assets they are using to proceed with enterprise as they judge fair market price.

Assets like Gold (commodities) the USD (Forex) and equities (corporate shares) are a battleground for those who are trying to make short term profits from price action movement (sometimes – volatility) versus those who are holders of the assets in order to run their lives (corporations, private businesses, finance).

Perhaps the speculative forces are not a Las Vegas environment completely, but it is a strange mix of risk management and gambling. And because of the price changes in these assets as supply and demand are transacted – the realization that the potential of hedging against sudden gyrations in price is used as insurance, but also as a dangerous speculative tool needs to be considered.

Futures, options and cash markets combine and are mixed like a stew consisting of trillions of USD value as global enterprise and financial casinos flourish.

Let’s take a look at Gold as an example. There is only so much physical Gold on the planet earth – a finite amount. There is only so much that can be taken out of the ground in a year. There is only so much Gold an individual can safely store in their home, before they have to use other secure venues. Central banks may have backed away from the ‘gold standard’ but they understand the importance of the precious metal as proven and tested by thousand of years of commerce. Gold can be used as the exchange of value for a good and this will likely remain the case for long time.

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Gold One Year Chart as of 23rd April 2024

The price of Gold serves as a hedge against inflation. The value of Gold today roughly buys you the same things it bought you a thousand years ago, when compared to monetary units which fluctuate like the wind. Because cash in many cases throughout history becomes weakened, losing its value because of bad government policy which causes the people holding the ‘paper’ to lose confidence; and then creates the desire for the precious metal which has almost entered our conscious DNA as a source of value which doesn’t change.

We can speculate on what the Gold price will be today, tomorrow, next year, but we know the fluctuations will roughly equate into what our consciousness – logic – tells us what the main reserve currency that rules the land will be worth – in this case the USD.

For the time being, the USD acts as the reserve currency of the world and is weighed against the value of Gold – literally – remember Gold is valued per ounce in USD.

The ability of Gold to climb to record highs recently was put into question, because at the same time the USD was getting strong. This signaled to traders that a known speculative force in Gold was at play; yes, it could be said a speculative force was at play in the USD too, because of Forex and the Federal Reserve, but Gold rose the past month and a half dramatically while the USD also was gaining value.

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USD Cash Index One Year Chart as of 23rd April 2024

Thus, suddenly the inverse correlation of Gold and the USD which are literally weighed against one another was suddenly off balance. The USD was gaining and gold was rising, and one of them was likely ‘full of hot air’ – an imbalance.

Meaning Gold had become inflated in value perhaps, because of speculative forces. While folks could point to geopolitics, and central banks such as China and Russia and maybe Iran wanting Gold because they are ‘angry’ at the U.S and want to signal they do not believe in the USD. There is only so much money these speculative forces have, and they hold the USD as a store of value too, which means if they bet too much on Gold they can find their positions – weight – imbalanced.

The USD remains the world’s reserve currency, and the value of the greenback particularly as the Fed has come under pressure, via the weight of inflation, and had to admit they cannot cut interest rates until inflation erodes has made the reserve currency stronger again. The use of the USD is easier than using Gold. There is not enough Gold in the world to transact business to business, person to person physical exchange everyday. Thus Gold becomes a ‘store of value’ via inventories not only in secure facilities but our minds too.

The past couple of days have seen Gold perhaps lose value again as the counterweights have come back into focus. It was bound to happen as long as the USD remains the world’s reserve currency in which value can be distinguished versus the commodity.

Speculative forces do run out of power, and now after Gold flirted with the 2,400.00 plus level recently, maybe Gold should return to its values which were seen in late 2023, which is where the USD Cash Index is essentially standing technically. Lets also remember where U.S Treasury yields were during this time, long-term bonds are a measure of interest rates and outlook via the Federal Reserve – used as an insurance and investment vehicle by those looking to lock in ‘returns’. Yes, Treasuries can be speculated on too, but their values coincide with USD legitimacy and the Federal Funds Rate.

It is a thought, a speculative notion, let’s see what happens. What should the speculative price of Gold be now compared to the USD? Should it be lower, closer to the 2200.00 to 2100.00 USD levels? The casino will give us the answers.

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Impact: Powell’s White Flag, Inflation Data, and the BoJ

by with No Comment AMT MarketsAssetsFeatured Highlights

Impact: Powell's White Flag, Inflation Data, and the BoJ

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s waving of the ‘white flag’ last Tuesday, when he admitted that inflation was producing stronger than anticipated data had been essentially wagered on since the second week of March by financial institutions. Powell’s speech acknowledging the Fed will find it difficult to cut the Federal Funds Rate in the mid-term (and probably at best not until late this summer) simply verified Forex positions which had already been taken by large players who could afford to make mid-term wagers.

The USD Index has returned to early November 2023 values, and appears able to challenge late September and October prices if inflation data this week causes more volatility, which should put traders of major currencies like the GBP, EUR, JPY and others on full alert. After the USD spiked higher from the 10th to the 12th of April, Forex speculators have seen dynamic action incrementally flirting with stronger USD results the past week and a half.

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USD Cash Index Six Month Chart as of 21st April 2024

Nervous trading continues to be seen in U.S equity indices. The Dow 30 and the Nasdaq 100 are fighting near ratios they touched in the last week of January. And the S&P 500 is traversing ground from the first week of February.

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S&P 500 Three Month Chart as of 21st April 2024

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Gold Six Month Chart as of 21st April 2024

Gold remains speculatively high as its hovers near 2,400.00 USD per ounce. The price of the precious metal has not given back its gains made since the start of March and this is intriguing because of the ‘known’ USD inverse correlation, which had proven to work well with the precious metal over the past couple of years but has been stopped in its tracks for the moment. Technically Gold may look overbought, but geopolitical concerns and the prospect that some central banks may be strong buyers could be fueling the rather incremental gains. Retail traders of Gold need to be careful because price action is likely to produce more surprises.

Forex has been turbulent the past handful of months as shifting behavioral sentiment has created choppy conditions. This coming week contains large fundamental risk events via data releases traders should monitor. USD/JPY speculators will also have to contend with the Bank of Japan.

Monday, 22nd of April, China Loan Prime Rates – borrowing costs are anticipated to remain at the current benchmarks. China produced slightly better Gross Domestic Product results last week, but Industrial Production numbers were weaker. Consumers in China remain burdened by decreasing home values and concerns about the economy.

Tuesday, 23rd of April, European Union and U.K Manufacturing and Services PMI – E.U results via the PMI readings are expected to show slight improvements. However the readings from the United Kingdom are anticipated to come in flat. The EUR/USD and GBP/USD will be affected by the results, but the currency pairs will likely remain focused on U.S data later in the day.

Tuesday, 23rd of April, U.S Purchasing Managers Index – the Manufacturing and Services sectors are expected to produce slightly better readings than the previous month. These results will be interesting taking into consideration the Empire State Manufacturing Index numbers last week were bad. The PMI statistics will provide some impetus to the broad Forex market.

Wednesday, 24th of April, Australia Consumer Price Index – inflation data is anticipated to be higher than the previous month’s results. While stronger inflation is not something that will make consumers happy in Australia, stubborn price results may keep the AUD/USD slightly steadier. The currency pair is traversing values last seen in the second week of November 2023 as of this writing.

Thursday, 25th of April, U.S Advance Gross Domestic Product and Price Index – these numbers are certain to have an impact on all financial assets. A decline in growth is anticipated in the U.S compared to the previous month’s result, but the Price Index is expected to show an increase. Jerome Powell having come out last week and said inflation is causing uncertainty within the Federal Reserve, may have a bit of inside knowledge regarding this GDP inflation number and ‘tipped his hand’. If this inflation gauge is higher than anticipated it could pour fuel onto the already volatile USD. All Forex traders need to pay attention to these results and be prepared with solid risk management.

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USD/JPY One Year Chart as of 21st April 2024

Friday, 26th of April, Bank of Japan – in what has already proven to be a couple of weeks filled with drama for the USD/JPY, the BoJ will step into the limelight. During their last central bank meeting the Bank of Japan increased the Policy Rate to 0.10%. It was the first time the BoJ hiked interest rates in 17 years. The USD/JPY is trading at values last seen in June of 1990. The Nikkei 225 has come off of recent record heights, but the famed Japanese stock index is also trading within territory seen in January of 1990. Business activity via the Core Machine Orders and the Tertiary Industry data last week were stronger than anticipated.

The Bank of Japan may want to maintain a weaker USD/JPY equilibrium to continue fostering domestic growth. However, many financial analysts have been calling on the BoJ to become more hawkish regarding monetary policy. The interest rate decision is certain to cause immediate volatility before and after the Policy Rate is made public. USD/JPY traders need to be prepared for fireworks. A slight raise of the interest rate seems to be needed, but after the March hike the BoJ may prove conservative again. The 34 year lows now being seen in the Japanese Yen are astonishing.

Friday, 26th of April, U.S Core PCE Price Index, and Inflation Expectations – the data from the government, and the reading from the University of Michigan will close the curtain on a big week of economic statistics for all traders. The USD will react to these outcomes. It should be noted the previous Inflation Expectations data from the University of Michigan caused a storm in Forex when it came with 3.1% gain.

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USD/ZAR Celebratory Parade Should be Put on Hold Awhile

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

USD/ZAR Celebratory Parade Should be Put on Hold Awhile

The USD/ZAR has produced a solid downward turn since the 1st of April when the currency pair was trading above 19.00000.

The value of the USD/ZAR as of this writing is near the 18.48000 mark as the currency pair fluctuates within Forex. The currency pair has produced a solid downturn since the start of April when it was above the 19.00000 level. The ability of the USD/ZAR to suddenly create a streak of bearish trading and make support levels look vulnerable is intriguing, particularly considering USD centric sentiment against many other major currencies the past week and a half has produced very choppy results in the broad Forex market.

The USD/ZAR is now trading at its monthly low via a technical perspective and the currency pair is testing values last seen at the start of January. The ability of the USD/ZAR to suddenly spark selling may be able to be explained because of the higher value of Gold which is trading at record prices while traversing near 2,360.00 USD currently. Mining makes up roughly 8% of the Gross Domestic Product value for South Africa.

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USD/ZAR One Month Chart as of 9th April 2024

However, before a party is launched to start celebrating the reemergence of the South Africa Rand, traders should note the USD/ZAR was trading within its current value range on the 14th of December. Thus the South African Rand is simply taking up residence like many other major currencies including the GBP and EUR within known prices they were valued, when the U.S Federal Reserve ‘changed’ its monetary policy stance on the 13th of December to a more dovish outlook.

The choppiness within the USD/ZAR has been rather extreme over the past few months. On the 28th of December the USD/ZAR was trading near the 18.26000 ratio briefly, on the 23rd of February the currency pair was near the 19.40000 mark and testing values which had been last seen in October of 2023. While the price of Gold is at record values now, the worth of the precious metal might be a false correlation to the USD/ZAR, and technical traders may want to watch the currency pair’s support levels below as a place that reversals higher could be sparked.

U.S Data and Concerns in South Africa Regarding the Election

The U.S will release important inflation data on Wednesday and Thursday. Last month’s Producer Price Index numbers from the States sparked a wave of volatility in Forex and the USD/ZAR was not immune. The bearish cycle in the USD/ZAR has been noteworthy, but fundamental doubt exists regarding its ability to sustain lower price momentum. The U.S Federal Reserve does not appear any closer to cutting its Federal Funds Rate.

There is also a political shadow regarding South Africa elections. The nation’s vote will take place on the 29th of May. The results potentially could create instability and the need for a coalition government which may be difficult to attain without signing off on more costly social policies which the South African government cannot easily afford fiscally.

USD/ZAR Short Term Thoughts:

·         The 18.46000/18.47000 support levels in the short-term may cause reactions if challenged.

·         Traders are urged not to be overly ambitious, particularly if they still want to pursue downside in the USD/ZAR, the use of take profit and stop loss orders is appropriate.

·         Current price levels may spark volatility if financial institutions feel the price of the USD/ZAR has become unbalanced.

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Risky Outlooks: Central Banks and Inflation Colliding

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

Risky Outlooks: Central Banks and Inflation Colliding

Most traders and investors begin their pursuit of financial assets with an optimistic perspective. However, the markets and ability to speculate also allows those who have other outlooks to equally participate. The past week once again delivered U.S inflation data which was not anticipated. While last Tuesday’s CPI results came in slightly stronger than expected, it was Thursday’s PPI which provided surprises for many.

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Producer Price Index Warning from AMT for the 14th of March 2024

Yet, some market participants may not have been utterly shocked by the results. Perhaps it was lucky to ‘guess’ the PPI numbers could cause volatility last Thursday, but the ability to be alert and attentive to the possibility of risk should not be ignored. Risk management is important for all traders.

This coming week will continue to be intriguing for day traders as they try to sail through speculative waters which are going to deliver shifting behavioral sentiment tides. A parade of central banks are ready to step into the limelight and they will focus on the word: inflation. Technical traders who wager on support and resistance levels in the coming days should not be scorned, because sideways and volatile trading results are likely.

U.S equity indices began to struggle the middle of last week, Gold has traded lower and Treasury yields have ticked upwards in recent market action, this as sentiment has again had to acknowledge economic outlooks remains problematic. Trading decisions this week will depend not only on what the central banks say and ‘do’, but also focus on the duration that a speculative position intends to be working.

Monday, 18th of March, China Industrial Production – a gain of 7.0% has beaten the expectation per the data already published this morning. Retail Sales numbers came in slightly below estimates, but Fixed Asset Investment numbers were better than anticipated. However, China’s data remains troublesome and the economic path ahead for the nation must overcome deflation and trust issues from international investors. A lack of confidence from the Chinese public about the value of Real Estate and the over abundance of available property is causing major headwinds economically.

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EUR/USD Six Month Chart as of 18th March 2024

Monday, 18th of March, E.U Final Core Consumer Price Index – the European Union will release crucial inflation data. An expected gain of 3.1% is the estimate. While this data release is not considered vital by many investors, the inflation statistics should be watched. The EUR/USD has produced mixed results the past four months as shifting behavioral sentiment due to battling perceptions regarding central bank policy outlooks converge.

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USD/JPY Six Month Chart as of 18th March 2024

Tuesday, 19th of March, Bank of Japan – the BoJ will deliver their Monetary Policy Statement and Policy Rate. While no numerical change is expected from the BoJ, signs for a change in rhetoric will be looked for as central bank observers try to read the tea leaves. The Japanese economy is within an intriguing spot, there have been signs of improvement, but the Bank of Japan is likely to remain on a conservative path regarding negative interest rates for the moment. The USD/JPY remains within the higher realms of its price range as the currency pair grapples with global inflation outlooks.

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AUD/USD Six Month Chart as of 18th March 2023

Tuesday, 19th of March, Reserve Bank of Australia – the RBA is expected to parrot the pronouncements of the other central banks as they point to stubborn inflation and ‘improving yet lackluster’ economic outlook. Trading in the AUD/USD has been choppy and the volatility is likely to continue within the known price range.

Tuesday, 19th of March, Canada CPI – the Consumer Price Index data is anticipated to show inflation remains remains sticky in the ‘Northern Tundra’. The CPI report from Canada should be monitored because of the strong relationship between the U.S and Canadian economies. The USD/CAD will react to any surprises.

Wednesday, 20th of March, U.K Consumer Price Index – yet another important inflation report. Great Britain has been a ‘poster child’ regarding stagflation. The ugly word is not something central banks, nor governments want to discuss, but the simple truth is that problematic inflation and limited growth equal stagflation. The statistics from the U.K should be examined. The economic health of Great Britain is often a solid reflection of global conditions.

Wednesday, 20th of March, U.S Federal Reserve – the Federal Funds Rate, FOMC Statement and Fed Press Conference will be focal points for investors. Except importantly, not much is likely to be said be Jerome Powell that isn’t known already. Inflation reports from the U.S have highlighted stubborn higher prices. U.S economic numbers regarding manufacturing and consumer confidence have started to turn lower, but the Fed is not going to change its policy this week. Talk about ‘becoming’ dovish will be heard, but the U.S central bank still wants to see more proof that inflation can erode before they start to cut interest rates in the mid-term.

Thursday, 21st of March, E.U Manufacturing and Services PMI, readings will come from France, Germany and the U.K via the Purchasing Managers Index results. Most of the data will likely continue to point to lackluster outlooks, only the Services PMI from the U.K is expected to offer a glimmer of hope regarding ‘expansion’. If the Flash numbers come in worse than expected this could cast a shadow over behavioral sentiment for European investors.

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GBP/USD Six Month Chart as of 18th March 2024

Thursday, 21st of March, Bank of England – the BoE is likely to keep its Official Bank Rate within place and their pronouncements via the Monetary Policy Summary may sound like a replica of the U.S Federal Reserve. Inflation and growth will be spoken about and the BoE will try its best to paint an optimistic picture. The GBP/USD will react to the gyrations, but the range of the currency pair will have already seen tests in the preceding days. The past four months have produced a value as of the 18th of March, that is hovering slightly above late November and early December 2023 prices.

Friday, 22nd of March, U.K Retail Sales – a negative result of minus -0.3% is expected. The retail data will certainly be watched, but following the massive week of central bank statements and data which have already been published, this number may prove to be rather anti-climatic unless there is a massive surprise.

Friday, 22nd of March, E.U ECB and U.S Fed – Officials from both central banks will engage in a variety of speeches in Europe and the U.S, but again after the week’s worth of central bank rhetoric which has been heard, investors are unlikely to react much to these soundbites from members of the European Central Bank and Federal Reserve. Existing behavioral sentiment which has been produced in the dynamic days beforehand should remain the central theme as investors go into the weekend.

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Notions for the 8th of March 2024

by with No Comment AMT MarketsArtificial IntelligenceFeatured Highlights

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Notions for the 8th of March 2024

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10. Social Credit Score: George Orwell in our Age of the All Knowing State via public cameras using facial and body language recognition, along with listening devices that can gather voices and other sounds would chill him to the bone.

9. French Revolution: It was ‘wrong’ to say madame and monsieur after the ‘ancien regime‘ was replaced, instead the expression ‘citizen’ (citoyen) was invoked. Not using the proper words could bring the guillotine into your future.

8. Japan: Nikkei 225 has come off the top, but remains highly valued. GDP numbers will come from the nation next Monday, and the BoJ is on the calendar the 19th of March.

7. Tech Espionage: Linwei Ding, a Chinese national, who worked for Google as a software engineer has been accused of stealing information regarding supercomputing and artificial intelligence. The U.S government has filed criminal charges against Ding in San Francisco, California.

6. Central Banks: Federal Reserve Chairman Powell per his testimony in Washington D.C remained cautious, saying he wants data to confirm inflation is eroding. The ECB yesterday also voiced care while trying to sound optimistic about economic conditions which remain lackluster.

5. FOMO: ‘Fear of missing out’ is being seen in many asset classes including cryptos and equities. Day traders while speculating should remain realistic and practice solid risk management.

4. U.S Indices: Apex heights persist as the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and Dow Jones 30 receive massive inflows of capital.

3. Gold: Record prices have been attained in the precious metal as speculative elements have pushed value above 2160.00 USD as of this writing.

2. Forex: The USD has seen weakness re-emerge the past handful of days as the ‘masses’ have seemingly energized again upon the notion of a change to the Federal Funds Rate.

1. U.S Data: Non-Farm Employment Change and Hourly Average Earnings statistics will be published today, either helping confirm or confront financial institutions behavioral sentiment. Weaker hiring and a diminishing of wage inflation is anticipated. Will it happen? Forex, U.S Treasury yields and equities will react.

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Forex and Equities Storm: Crucial Data will Impact Markets

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

Forex and Equities Storm: Crucial Data will Impact Markets

Today will start out with a rather important consumer report from the U.S and day traders should stay alert. It is easy to point to every day and week as being a crucial circumstance for speculators, because that is what gets their juices moving and gets them to wager in the markets.

However, given the rather choppy conditions in Forex seen since the last week of December and pointing to the results of the Consumer Price Index on the 13th of February and the storms created in FX, traders hopefully have enough muscle memory to remember how they felt in the midst of the whipsaw conditions which were experienced only two weeks ago.

Central bank outlooks are fragile among analysts and financial institutions. Simply put this week’s data could prove to be more important than the CPI numbers. Consumer sentiment, GDP, and inflation statistics are all on the U.S roll call this week.

Other geographies will make news too and impact global markets. Last week’s impressive results from Nvidia created another massive wave of positive momentum in equity indices. The Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 and the Dow Jones 30 all have hit record values. Japan’s Nikkei 225 has surpassed record heights.

Yet, other barometers do highlight caution abounds too, U.S Treasuries yields have edged upwards and are touching values which show there is nervousness regarding monetary policy from the U.S Federal Reserve. This week’s data will deliver more insights for investors, and Treasuries are certainly going to react to the economic reports.

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Gold One Month Chart as of 27th of February 2024

Gold has edged higher in the past week and is around the 2034.00 USD mark as of this writing. The slight climb above the 2020.00 ratio which has worked like a magnet recently, indicates some traders may be leaning optimistically towards a weaker USD mid and long-term. These folks may be proven correct, but day traders should note that the 2030.00 ratio in gold is below highs seen in December, January and early February – which indicates nervousness. If day traders do not believe gold acts as an inverse barometer for the USD, simply look at the results of trading when the stronger than expected CPI numbers were released on the 13th of February. Gold fell to a low near 1985.00 on the 14th, this was not a coincidence.

Again, while it is easy to sound alarms and jump up and down and proclaim every week important for day traders, the acknowledgement that this week’s economic data is significant should not be treated as hyperbole. You have been warned.

Monday, 26th of February, U.S New Home Sales – yesterday’s results showed another decline in the housing market, and the previous month’s number was revised downwards. The outcome may point to concerns about U.S mortgage rates which remain stubbornly high for those considering purchases.

Tuesday, 27th of February, U.S Durable Goods Orders – a rather large drop of minus -4.9% is expected. The Core data however is expected to produce a rise of 0.2%. These numbers will be a good precursor for the important consumer sentiment which will follow one and a half hours later.

Tuesday, 27th of February, U.S Consumer Confidence via the Conference Board – the results of the important readings have shown intriguing gains since late fall in 2023. While improvement in sentiment has been recorded, revisions lower have also been seen in the previous three reports. The outcome of today’s report should be treated carefully. If another higher reading is produced this may create some positive momentum in the USD momentarily.

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NZD/USD Three Month Chart as of 27th February 2024

Wednesday, 28th of February, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Official Cash Rate and Monetary Policy Statement – while many Forex traders will be sleeping when the RBNZ makes its important pronouncement, New Zealand inflation data has remained strong and a conservative government is in charge politically that is pro-business. The question is if the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will go against the grain of other global central banks and actually increase their interest rate while others seem to be adamant about trying to become less aggressive. While many analysts believe the RBNZ will sit on its hands and act according to the whims of others, if an interest rate hike is announced global Forex traders should take note because it would be a signal that central bankers are uneasy regarding their rhetoric and not in agreement.

Wednesday, 28th of February, U.S Preliminary Gross Domestic Product – a gain of 3.3% is the expectation from many analysts. The previous reading was stronger than anticipated. If growth numbers in the U.S come in higher than estimated the USD will react with strength. The Federal Reserve would like to see the outcome meet the expectation or come in below, this so the U.S central bank can consider reducing the Federal Funds Rate late this spring or in early summer. However, if a significantly strong growth number is demonstrated this would cause turmoil in Forex.

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EUR/USD Six Month Chart as of 27th February 2024

Thursday, 29th of February, Germany Preliminary Consumer Price Index – a slight gain is expected in the inflation number. The EUR/USD has been struggling as stagflation concerns shadow the European Union. A higher inflation result will not be welcomed by the ECB, which would prefer to cut interest rates sooner rather than later. The German number should be watched and it will cause an impact if there is a surprise. The EUR/USD has been turbulent and is likely to produce more choppy conditions depending on the parade of data results this week.

Thursday, 29th of February, U.S Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index – traders who have felt the previous economic reports already have caused intense reactions this week should brace for this inflation report. A result of 0.4% is expected. The Federal Reserve admits this is one of the most important publications that it monitors. This means financial institutions react to this report too. If inflation were to come in higher than expected, like the CPI results from two weeks ago, this would essentially kill off expectations of a May interest rate cut from the Fed. The USD will react to this report and so will U.S Treasury yields, which means equity indices will also be affected. A weaker inflation report is being wished for by many market participants, but will this be the result?

Friday, 1st of March, China Manufacturing PMI – not to beat a dead horse, but China’s economic data has been poor and this report will be viewed as important. Another negative outcome is expected. Transparency regarding economic numbers from China is a worry for investors. Conditions in China are being watched and it is important for traders to eliminate bias regarding their perspectives. China may be struggling, but its importance as an economic power is still very much in evidence. Foreign direct investment into China is diminishing, but plenty of investors still have ‘skin in the game’ and will be affected by the manufacturing reports.

Friday, 1st of March, U.S Manufacturing PMI via ISM – a slightly improved manufacturing reading is expected. However, because of the U.S data releases from the previous days, the results may be looked at only momentarily and not cause much of a reaction from market participants. Traders may be looking forward to the weekend after this week’s economic publications in order to rest.

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Nervous Results Next: Forex and Equities Wait for Jobs Data

by with No Comment AssetsFeatured Highlights

Nervous Results Next: Forex and Equities Wait for Jobs Data

Tomorrow’s jobs numbers from the U.S will get plenty of media coverage. Typically the Non-Farm Employment Change data is used as a selling tool by brokers to get their traders motivated and speculating on Forex and stocks via CFDs with the promise of swift price action. Many times the jobs numbers prove to have limited value, serving mostly as entertainment for back office risk managers at Forex houses as the whipsaw value changes wipe out speculators across the board. However, tomorrow may prove different.

Friday’s Non-Farm Employment Change and the Average Hourly Earnings statistics may produce dynamics worthy of their news coverage. Financial institutions are actually quite interested in tomorrow’s coming reports as the U.S Federal Reserve lingers in the shadows having spoken boldly about raising the Federal Funds Rate in November. It would take a weaker hiring result from the Non-Farm Employment Change data, and lower inflation numbers from the Average Hourly Earnings outcome to change financial institution outlooks regarding the U.S central bank.

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EUR/USD One Month Chart as of 5th Oct. 2023

The trend of the EUR, GBP and JPY clearly demonstrate the value that has been lost against the USD over the past three months. While many financial institutions and speculators believe the USD will begin to lose strength eventually, timing the moment this is going to start happening in earnest is difficult. U.S Treasuries have come off of highs in recent trading, but nervousness remains abundant and recent heights remain in sight. Tomorrow’s U.S jobs number could reignite fear and spark behavioral sentiment which is reactionary.

As a side note, while U.S indices turned in some gains on Wednesday, the moves higher were not exactly momentous which sets up the U.S stock markets to produce a sudden reversal lower if widespread nervousness is produced today and tomorrow.

Importantly, hiring is believed to be weakening in the U.S by some analysts, but there is plenty of talk about a lack of qualified workers to fill important jobs still. So while the Non-Farm Employment Change number may come in below estimates and could spark hope among financial institutions the U.S Fed will be given a reason to sit on their hands, it is the Average Hourly Earnings inflation numbers which should be watched even more closely. If the costs of paying wages is more expensive than the previous month, this would spark concerns about price pressures remaining problematic.

Analysts have also continued to speak about concerns regarding revisions being made by the U.S government to past jobs reports, which means financial institutions are wary of positioning themselves fully based on the current month’s reporting. Accurate reporting from the U.S government has become problematic, and is causing nervous and conspiracy minded chatter in some trading corners.

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WTI Crude Oil One Month Chart as of 5th Oct. 2023

Another factor which day traders may want to consider is the price of Crude Oil which has sunk below 84.00 USD per barrel in the footsteps of a one week decline. If the price of the commodity can remain muted and show a solid trend downwards this would help reduce hawkish rhetoric from the Federal Reserve.

As we go into tomorrow’s jobs numbers from the U.S, the broad markets do continue to exhibit nervousness which appears justified. The results of the Non-Farm Employment Change and Average Hourly Earnings may produce results which cause a reaction which shakes the outlooks of financial institutions and carries strong implications for day traders that matter.

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Wednesday Federal Reserve Prediction and Central Bank Unity

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

Wednesday Federal Reserve Prediction and Central Bank Unity

Later today the Federal Reserve will release its Federal Funds Rate and FOMC Statement. Jerome Powell will also field questions. My prediction regarding the Fed today is that the Federal Reserve will hold (pause). It will say inflation remains problematic and stubborn, and the Fed continues to monitor economic conditions it finds complex. The high costs of energy (Crude Oil) will be presented as part of the problem.

The Fed will say they will strongly consider an interest rate hike next month, thus bracing the markets for what financial institutions have already traded into the system. This because trading houses have listened to the Fed already and believed that a pause would be seen for a few months, but cracks in sentiment quickly appeared in mid-July because of the Fed’s cloudy rhetoric as it spoke out of both sides of its mouth. Ratings downgrades and worries began, the USD sprung to significant values, higher U.S Treasury yields have flourished and increased fears for the long-term investment world. All the noise has certainly helped doomsayers.

The problem for the Fed and they should be aware of this, is that their interest rate hike threats have little direct affect on the price of Crude Oil. The rise in oil prices is directly due to Saudi Arabia cutting back on production. The U.S has much less influence on Saudi Arabia then it would like to believe it does. The Saudi Arabia government is interested in sustaining a profitable price for the commodity. At 90.00 USD per barrel, Saudi Arabia is making significant profit, but under 80.00 USD per barrel they grow concerned. After all someone has to pay for the ‘Line’ project of Neom.

Getting back on point, if the Fed is so intent on raising rates they should do so now. Not next month. But as the Federal Reserve and other major central banks often demonstrate, they are reactive – not proactive. Meaning if the Fed has no direct influence on the high price of energy that they should go ahead now and influence the marketplace instead of rattling a sword which only creates nervous global behavioral sentiment.

And yes, a hike of the Federal Funds Rate would be problematic for credit and cash reserves of consumers and businesses, which face more expensive obligations regarding loans and bonds. However, if you are merely going to threaten to do something, why not do it now and say without a doubt – like the ECB did last week – this will be our last hike for the foreseeable future. But the Fed is likely to prove they have limited desire to act swiftly and try to remain painfully polite, very much like when they refused to acknowledge inflation was a real threat when it started in earnest over two years ago.

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GBP/USD One Month Chart as of 20th Sept. 2023

Lastly, the Bank of England will make their pronouncements tomorrow, and some are suggesting the BoE because of today’s ‘weaker’ inflation results will not raise the Official Bank Rate. However, I disagree, inflation is still high in the U.K and the Bank of England may also feel it has to protect GBP value.

Last week’s interest rate hike from the European Central Bank, which I didn’t believe would happen and was wrong about, suggests the BoE and ECB may have privy knowledge regarding the Fed’s inner thinking. It is quite possible the European’s raised rates last week not only to fight inflation, but because they had been warned by the Federal Reserve that the U.S central bank wants to ‘sound’ aggressive. There is reason to believe if the Fed doesn’t raise tonight, but groans on about a complex economy and stubborn inflation and the need to consider raising rates next month, the BoE will feel very compelled to still hike the Official Bank Rate by a quarter of a point tomorrow.

Nothing quite like coordinated banter between the major central banks which have already demonstrated a rather stark level of mistakes over the past two years. Why not add onto the shenanigans today and tomorrow? Good luck to us all.