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Risk Events and Questioning the Hyperbole of ‘Bad Actors’

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

Risk Events and Questioning the Hyperbole of 'Bad Actors'

The week in a way has already started for financial institutions and traders because of the developing news from Russia. Due to yesterday’s events surrounding the ‘noise’ caused by the Wagner Group’s leader Yevgeny Prigozhin, let there be no doubt that energy sector traders became nervous and fragile behavioral sentiment was being anticipated for Monday’s openings. However, like a well staged drama (perhaps this is giving too much credit to the actors) the Russian saga seems to have come to an odd conclusion. Leaving the possibility for a Part Two to develop. Stay tuned ladies and gentlemen.

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EUR/USD One Month Chart as of 25th June 2023

Monday, the 26th of June, Germany ifo Business Climate – the reading is forecast to come in worse than the previous month. Germany has turned in rather troubling economic data and the E.U as a whole is struggling under the weight of inflation and lackluster growth. The EUR/USD could be affected from the business climate survey.

Monday, the 26th of June, E.U ECB Forum on Central Banking – the annual event which is a bit like the Fed’s Jackson Hole Symposium will be attended by the leading central bank officials from around the globe. This year’s event in Sintra, Portugal will focus on inflation. ECB President Christine Legarde will kick off the event, which will end on Wednesday the 28th of June with speeches from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey and others.

Tuesday, the 27th of June, Canada Consumer Price Index – a slew of inflation reports will be delivered. The forecast anticipates a slight drop in price pressure, but will that actually be the result? The USD/CAD could move based on the outcomes.

Tuesday, the 27th of June, U.S Consumer Confidence via the Conference Board – this survey is expected to show a slight improvement in the outlook of American consumers.

Wednesday, the 28th of June, E.U ECB Forum on Central Banking – the event will conclude with speeches from the heads of the ECB, Bank of Japan, Bank of England and Federal Reserve. The event is not supposed to stir up the dust, but Forex traders should monitor the rhetoric generated.

Thursday, the 28th of June, Germany Preliminary Consumer Price Index – the data is expected to show an increase in prices and underscore the ECB’s aggressive rhetoric regarding inflation.

Thursday, the 28th of June, U.S Final Gross Domestic Product – the growth numbers are projected to show a gain of 1.4% compared to last month’s 1.3%. The results will move the financial markets if they are surprising. Traders should be on the lookout for revisions to the previous month’s numbers.

Friday, the 29th of June, U.K Final Gross Domestic Product – an expected ‘growth’ number of 0.1% is anticipated, which would match last month’s lackluster outcome. The U.K is hovering under recessionary pressures and this GDP result will be watched by GBP/USD day traders.

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Risks Ahead: Tranquil Data Mixed with Loud Nervous Chatter

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

Risks Ahead: Tranquil Data Mixed with Loud Nervous Chatter

Last Friday finished with stronger than expected Non-Farm Employment Change numbers, which essentially collided with dovish rhetoric via two U.S Federal Reserve FOMC members from the middle of the week; this while inflation clearly remains stubborn in the U.S.

All of which sets up this coming week for nervous trading results and until the 14th of June, when the Federal Reserve’s Federal Funds Rate pronouncements will be brought forth. Plenty of talk about interest rates will be heard in the days ahead and traders should expect to hear debates as the chatter grows louder.

Commodity traders may be interested in the outcome of the OPEC+ meetings taking place this weekend. The cartel’s decisions regarding oil production will affect not only prices of Crude Oil futures, but is a direct reflection regarding global demand, which also tells us about the organization’s viewpoints regarding global economic conditions.

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WTI Crude Oil Three Month Chart as of 4th of June 2023

Monday, the 5th of June, European Services PMI – Germany, France and Italy and will release their Purchasing Managers Index readings. The German outcome could prove interesting because the nation is suffering from recessionary pressures. The PMI results could affect the EUR/USD a bit. The U.K will also release their data too.

Monday, the 5th of June, U.S ISM Services PMI – this report will be of interest because some are expecting a better outcome compared to May’s results. A potentially strong reading could prove problematic and put more pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates next week.

Tuesday, the 6th of June, Australia RBA Rate Statement – the Reserve Bank of Australia surprised people with an increase of their Cash Rate last month. No increase is expected now, but the RBA’s rhetoric should be listened to as they comment about domestic and global economic conditions.

Wednesday, the 7th of June, Canada BoC Overnight Rate – Bank of Canada is expected to hold its borrowing costs in place, but inflation is still creeping into prices and the BoC’s Rate Statement may prove intriguing.

Thursday, the 8th of June, U.S Weekly Unemployment Claims – following in the footsteps of the stronger than expected jobs numbers last week, this report could get some media fanfare. However, it also may prove to be a lot of noise and have little real affect on market direction.

Friday, the 9th of June, China CPI and PPI – the inflation reports from China could prove interesting in wake of recent lackluster economic data from the nation. Last Thursday’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI results came in slightly better than expected, but data from China the week before was negative. The data from China gives investors and traders insights because of its importance as a global supplier of consumer products.