US Cash Index 20260424

Upcoming Weekend Nervousness: Does Anyone Know What is Going On?

by with No Comment AssetsBehavioral SentimentEquitiesExclusive ContentFeatured HighlightsFederal Reserve, Interest RatesFinancial InstitutionsForexInvestingMajor Global Equity IndicesRisk ManagementRobert PetrucciSpeculatorsUncategorized

Preaching Caution and Looking Like a Fool to Those Who Want to Profit

Can someone please tell the rest of us what is going on? Global markets via Forex this morning are demonstrating additional USD centric strength which developed yesterday. The price of WTI Crude Oil is above $94.00. Gold is languishing and around 4,675.00 USD. And although the 3 major U.S stock indices are all within their higher realms – one thing stands out – folks are uneasy.  But then again, the markets never move in one direction only, and perhaps current results can be interpreted as profit taking by those on winning sides.

US Cash Index 20260424

U.S Dollar Index One Month Chart on the 24th April 2026

I would love to be the person to tell you what is going to happen, but as this weekend looms making short and near-term bets still appears a fool’s game. Yes, it is easy to make predictions, but being correct is more difficult. Retail traders are suffering more than most market participants, this as leverage and a lack of funds to remain in a position through violent reversals destroy plenty of trading accounts.

There is talk of manipulation via chat rooms regarding the price of WTI Crude Oil. The usual dialogues can be seen – largely based on conspiracies via large players trying to blow out smaller traders. However, these types of forum chatter are mostly wrong. Large players are getting hurt too in the energy markets. Anyone who is taking a position in order to speculate on a quick hitting foray in WTI is betting on their perceptions. 

The problem is that unless there is inside knowledge of what the next words out of President Trump’s mouth are going to be, or that from Iranian officials – any pursuit of WTI Crude Oil at this juncture is a ‘vibe’ trade. What is going to happen from Saturday and into Sunday is an unknown quantity. Folks holding positions into this weekend need to understand they are wagering. And some may find they are quite profitable afterwards, while others grimace and find themselves on the wrong side of the next surges higher or spikes downward. Intraday trading volatility in nothing new however.

The USD/JPY is near 159.600 as of this writing. The EUR/USD is close to 1.16820. While a tourist traversing foreign lands may not find the Forex incremental shifts in value mesmerizing or of interest, FX traders who do not have deep pockets are likely wondering why risk adverse conditions are prevailing suddenly. But as a risk analyst, I must say that conditions simply may have been perceived to have been oversold in the USD by financial institutions, this as the Fed looms on the horizon.

However, my task as a risk analyst the past two months has been like a carnival barker, because while it has been easy to say that a show is happening within the big tent of speculation, I have been hard pressed to predict short and near-term directions correctly. Perhaps I fret too much. The optimistic thunder claps upwards in the stock markets since the 31st of March have been astounding to many. Hopefully it has been prosperous for day traders, but the likelihood is that financial institutions are the ones who are profiting more via their pension funds purchases for institutional clients.

This coming week the U.S Federal Reserve will make their FOMC decision public. This will be Jerome Powell’s swan song at the Fed. The Chairman is being faded out by the U.S White House mid-May. And somewhere when he is all alone, Jerome Powell may be having a quiet laugh to himself. The Fed will not act this week. Rates will remain the same – unless there is some bizarre move in the global markets over the next handful of days. Yet, Powell’s remarks will be listened to for warnings. While it is not in Powell’s nature to issue a ‘I told you so’ quote, and he is likely content to walk away from the Federal Reserve quietly, it would be captivating if Powell looked into the cameras and pointed fingers. 

But because Jerome Powell like most others, likely has no clue what is going to happen next internationally he will remain mostly mute (cautious as always).

And here we meet again, wondering what the next 72 hours hold. Will the Iranian ceasefire remain observed? Is it even a ceasefire in reality? The Strait of Hormuz remains a linchpin for military action by the U.S Navy and Iranian Revolutionary Guards via a cascade of ship seizures. Maybe that continues to be the key, WTI Crude Oil prices remain a crucial barometer. USD centric prices via Forex action seems to be a reflection of fear or positive thinking in the energy sector depending on the prevailing tides.

Last week there was so much optimism folks were talking about WTI prices potentially hitting $75.00 and lower, now this hope seems to be wishful thinking. Global markets will remain fast and dangerous, that is easy to say and is right, but telling you which direction assets will move, that is a bit different.

And there is the old standard test I use when an opinion is definitely asked for: if someone were to put a gun theoretically to my head and ask me what I think, I would venture to say things will remain quiet and optimism will seep into the markets before the close this weekend. However, I don’t like to play fool’s games, so I will leave now and wish you luck via your own perspectives because the near-term remains more speculative than normal for day traders – even if strict risk management is used. 

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postN87

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Morsels for the 12th of April 2026

by with No Comment AMT Top TenAssetsBehavioral SentimentCommoditiesEquitiesFeatured HighlightsFinancial InstitutionsForexSpeculatorsWorld

Optimistic Hopes Appear Ready to Fade into the Distance

10. B-ball: The NCAA Men’s Basketball Championship concluded early last week with a rather resounding outcome for the University of Michigan who won their 2nd Men’s trophy, the first one coming in 1989. Michigan dismantled the Arizona Wildcats and then handled the Connecticut Huskies. The NBA playoffs will start this coming week. The Oklahoma Thunder and the San Antonio Spurs are getting a lot of attention, and the Denver Nuggets might have something to offer.

9. Trump: A week of optimism now leads towards threats of additional noise. Peace talks held in Pakistan appear to have failed this weekend, and now another countdown has begun as the Iranian conflict appears ready to escalate. The U.S White House and President Trump will certainly make more noise in the coming days.

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AMT Top 10 for the 12th of April 2026

8. Logistics Advertising: Kit Kat and Nutella have been rewarded with massive exposure. The Kit Kat truck heist of 12 tons of product (reportedly said to be in a special F1 designed candy bar theme) made headlines. Kit Kat’s owner, Nestle, was obviously content with the free publicity and proof of demand. And a jar of Nutella floated across the Artemis 2 spacecraft unexpectedly this week, gaining international attention and sparking smiles from fans of the Italian chocolate hazelnut spread.

7. Creator: Yet another candidate accused of being Satoshi Nakamoto has been produced. Blockstream’s CEO Adam Back has been named by the N.Y Times as a potential creator. In the meantime, the real question is whether anyone but Iran (as they run their illicit shadow economy), Michael Saylor of MSTR and a few big whales consisting of institutions and hedge funds are really paying any attention to BTC anymore. The BTC/USD price as of this morning is around $71,600.00. Bitcoin was traversing near $126,000.00 in the first week of October 2025.

6. Greenback: USD/JPY 159.240, EUR/USD 1.17225, USD/ZAR 16.38540, USD/INR 93.0480. USD centric strength may prove solid this coming week and other currencies may suffer a bit.

5. Sideways Shimmer: Gold finished the week near $4.745.00, roughly $100.00 above its starting point last Monday. U.S 10-Y Treasury yields went into this weekend around 4.34%. Shifting outlooks this coming week will likely ignite turbulence in both assets.

4. Blind Eyes: More than a handful of U.S politicians have been featured as big winners regarding their stock trading abilities. Their gains far exceed the winning percentages of the overall returns made by indexes (as a benchmark). Little has been done to stop what many view as insider trading. There are many forms of political corruption around the world. However, a variety of places and people, including Americans seem to accept this potential misconduct. The ‘Stop Insider Trading Act’ has been brought forth in the House of Representatives and Senate, but the legislation may simply meet a slow death and disappear.

3. Inflation: U.S interest rates via the Federal Reserve will be held in check at a minimum over the next few months. The higher costs of energy will certainly seep into prices for transportation, manufacturing and agriculture. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell may be quite content to leave his position May the 15th. The next Fed FOMC interest rate decision is due on the 29th of April.

2. Strait of Hormuz: WTI Crude Oil closed above $90.00 going into this weekend. When futures markets open early on Monday, the price of the commodity is likely to rise via increased anxiousness which will build into the mindsets of large players today because of the failure of peace talks in Pakistan. The price of Crude Oil remained high last week, only moving to a low of around $85.00 this past Tuesday, showing cautious attitudes remained. Prices above $100.00 will likely become a new target quickly for some who bet. Will an early spike upwards this week then start a counter reversal lower, or will a climb become sustained?

1.  Risk Off: The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 will get plenty of attention this coming week as behavioral sentiment remains fragile. Having skirted near its 200-days moving average lows in recent weeks, the indices have gained handsomely since the 31st of March. Will the upwards momentum come to an abrupt end this week, or have financial institutions been able to digest their nervousness and will they show a capability of remaining buyers?

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postN50

Clear Betting Environment Is a Winning Proposition for Brokers, Not Day Traders

by with No Comment AMT MarketsAssetsBehavioral SentimentCommoditiesFeatured HighlightsForexRisk ManagementSpeculatorsUncategorized

Things Unlikely To Get Easier for Retail Speculators Remainder of Week

I would like to offer day traders encouragement under the current market circumstances. However, the reality is that the next handful of days will remain difficult for retail traders who do not have comfortable amounts of cash to absorb when intraday chaos occurs. On the other hand as an ex-risk manager for a brokerage house, I can state that CFD providers are singing joyfully because they are making profits from the wild fluctuations in equity indices, Forex and commodities.

postN50

Gasoline and Burning Cash Continues

A case in point are the results via the future markets, this via CFD offerings by brokers’ platforms yesterday for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100. Early nervousness saw an electric amount of selling get demonstrated and then suddenly a reversal higher, this as President Trump caused a thunderous optimistic reaction as he spoke about the potential of a deal with Iran in the coming days. The dose of optimistic risk taking lasted a couple of hours.

Not only did U.S equity indices bolt higher, but WTI Crude Oil prices slid lower, and Forex suddenly saw the USD losing strength. Here’s the thing, some day traders certainly made money as waves of momentum carried their wagers into positive terrain, but many speculators were likely knocked out of the their trades with sudden loses. CFD trading using leverage has always been a casino, this is not going to change. But the volatility seen the past three weeks has likely not created great wealth for retail traders. Some have gained certainly, but I can guarantee you brokers are making more money via the intraday swings and volatility that knock smaller traders out, this as leverage causes fluctuations that expose too much risk and cause folks to lose money.

Again, this is the nature of the beast. Day traders wanting to participate in the markets have to acknowledge the risks that will confront them. It is a warning worth noting once again as a war rages in the Middle East. 

Markets in the best of times are difficult. Risk management is constantly needed. While the thrill of trading is fantastic, without solid tactics speculating equates into gambling. Think of brokers as bookies, they gear the market via wide spreads, transaction fees including overnight charges to favor themselves. Brokers are certainly glad to pay out winners so others are enticed and bring more business, but strategic day traders who use well practiced methodology are watched closely by brokers – because these folks (good traders who are careful) are a threat for brokers bottom lines – profits are king.

Trading and fundamental notions are proving dangerous too during these loud times. Gold for instance which was trading at all-time highs in January (along with silver – but that is another speculative story) is now traversing near $4,425.00. The precious metal was testing the $5,600.00 vicinity in late January. So how did this long heralded safe haven metal actually see a selloff become stronger since the start of the Iranian war when it was around $5,200.00 on the 27th of February?

IMO, it shows that speculative fervor in gold was fever pitched in January, and even though a war has broken out and caused widespread anxiety in the broad markets (which in theory is supposed to make gold more valuable), the volatile nature of wagering – yes gambling – on the markets including gold, often is a crapshoot. Folks who bought gold as a speculative endeavor have now cashed out their profits, those who believe gold is a safe haven and are buying based on this belief will need another round of speculative fuel to induce significant gains like those made in January. The market sometimes runs out of participants when things get too cautious. In other words, if there are not enough buyers, selling momentum takes over.

And to put a finishing touch on this piece, let there be no doubt that brokers were likely relieved that the one way avenue upwards for gold (and silver) seen into January has now turned into a volatile betting battle. The point here, if I am able to make one is this, market conditions are rough and will remain extreme in the coming days. Folks need to be cautious, the markets are not your friend, they are a tool for making money (or losing it).

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Troll

Risk Analysis versus Trolls Demanding to Know the Impossible

by with No Comment Behavioral SentimentCommoditiesExclusive ContentFeatured HighlightsFinancial InstitutionsInvestingMajor Global Equity IndicesRisk ManagementRobert Petrucci

Behavioral Sentiment Fatigue and Long-Term Opportunities

As I write Gold remains below $5,000.00. Silver is slightly above $75.00. The Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 remain cautious. And my favorite exclusion choice – MicroStrategy is struggling below $129.00. The markets in general appear to be waiting for a dose of impetus, be it positive or negative. Some investors who are brave may believe assets have reached an accumulation phase as support levels get tested in equity markets. They hopefully also understand that the equity indices can go lower and they may suffer for a while as prices decline. And because of this notion, perhaps the larger investors remain ultra-cautious and are trying to time when they will re-enter the marketplace as a forceful buyer. In the meantime bonds will be bought as signals are awaited on for long-term positions in the major indices.

Troll

However, there is also a large contingent of traders who are not looking for long-term investment, instead they are hoping to take advantage of short-term price movement – positive and negative – depending on their philosophies. These folks may be part of hedge funds, or simply large players who believe they have the benefit of experience and know-how.

And then there are folks like me who watch the market and offer analysis on current conditions. I am of the opinion the broad markets are nervous and that behavioral sentiment remains troubled. While I know that experienced large players and financial institutions are accustomed to noise, there seems to be sense that an attitude of fatigue is being felt. People are tired of dealing with the constant amplitude of policy threats and risks. However, this insight regarding tired minds and markets may serve a purpose, it is possible long-term players will see current conditions as an opportunity to buy and hold.

If short-term players such as hedge funds and large speculators are too busy being nervous and assets are straddling prices in equities that are seen as potentially oversold by others, real value can be accumulated and waited upon to produce more growth. This is still a gamble, there are no guarantees. The markets go up and they go down. Cycles occur and new traders are often perplexed when their insights do not come to fruition. Patience is needed. And it is also good to have others in your ear who serve as contrarian advocates offering different opinions that you may not find agreement.

Perhaps you know someone who has an interest in the financial markets and is the same good friend. There is even a chance that you have worked with this person professionally, and have shared ideas on business management, organization and scaling trades and investing. And there is a chance that even though you like this person and find them completely engaging, that you disagree with everything they say.

Trust me when I say my friend (colleague) knows I am talking about them, and suffice it to say that I know he will completely disagree with my further comments, but also quietly embrace the words and believe he is serving his function as a voice of reason. He will not call himself a devil’s advocate, but as someone who serves to create focus. He is the person that says charge ahead, aim for an outcome and tell people what you think. He wants values to look for and timeframes to take action.

However, as a risk manager I frequently find myself being cautious, I try not to make outlandish predictions and try to remain conservative in my approach. I tend to think long-term, while he the trader frequently acts on short-term intuition with a focus on the future per his perspectives. But timing the market and exactly what is going to happen in the next five minutes, one hour, day and sometimes even a week remains a difficult and often an expensive game, I am constantly vigilant of this possible plight.

When I wrote that Silver appeared to be in a speculative mode and feared the highs, and told folks to be prepared for the metal returning to earth it was appreciated by my associate, but it also came with the question of when. When is Silver going to fall, he would ask. And I typically answered that patience was needed. And now that Silver has fallen he says, ‘you warned us that Silver would fall, but didn’t say when’, and he is correct. I cannot give an exact answer because I am not a master of the universe.

Day traders need to know that their CFD positions do not move the cash market. And even participants in the cash market are actually mostly wagering in the futures markets via exchanges and hoping for prices to move in their chosen direction only. Most people choosing to trade in the futures markets do not want to take deliverables of a commodity. Speculators in the futures markets may dream about taking Gold and Silver deliverables, but they know logically they cannot. The same goes for traders in futures with agricultural products and soft commodities.

To buy or not to buy is not the question. To participate or not to participate is the question. You do not have to trade every day, even if you are a short-term speculator. You can watch the markets. Sometimes the best trades you will ever make are the ones you do not pursue.

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Cactus flower 20260121

Emotional and Speculative Market Could Spark Trouble

by with No Comment Behavioral SentimentFeatured HighlightsInvestingRisk ManagementSpeculators

Day Trading Problems: Not Everyday Produces a Profitable Outcome

Early indications show that U.S markets will produce volatility today. The EUR/USD is straddling the 1.19000 level, Gold is around $5005.00. Bitcoin for those that care is near 68,700.00 USD.

Cactus flower 20260121

Flowering Cactus

Not everyday produces profits. That is rather easily dealt with by large speculators, big players and financial institutions who have the time and money to withstand short and near-term storms. The current markets represent danger if you listen to the noise from outside sources – media, analysts and influencers engaged in trying to create opinions a lot of the time. However, bias must be distinguished and another very fundamental thing needs to be accessed.

Day trading is not the same as being a large speculator, big player or financial institution. Day trading usually means a person is a retail trader, a client therefore of a brokerage house. Day traders do not typically have deep pockets.

Getting caught up in the fear factor is a quick way to lose money fast. Gold, Silver, Bitcoin, U.S major indices, Forex have all delivered volatile trading the past few weeks. What looks like a gentle day on tap for day traders must always be treated carefully.

This week the U.S will release Retail Sales, Non-Farm Employment Change data and Consumer Price Index readings.

The jobs numbers which traditionally get released on Fridays and should have been published last week, were delayed because of the quasi-govt shutdown which happened. 

Last night’s Super Bowl was a rather lackluster game, while this has nothing to do with the markets, perhaps it will cause some type of reaction via a need for more noise (emotions) to be heard by those who have a desire for attention they do not deserve. No do not worry, the game’s outcome is not going to affect today’s trading. However, via behavioral sentiment this week’s coming results across a wide range of assets are set to be more entertaining than the Seahawks victory over the Patriots last night.

Day traders have likely made money for their brokers the past couple of weeks as they have taken hits because of volatility. This week could provide more choppiness. Retail traders need to remain careful and not bet on things simply because someone else suggests they are an expert on world affairs when they in actuality are merely getting paid to make noise and sell more bets. And by the way, betting on the Patriots last night to win just because they had won so many times before is a reminder past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.

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post241

Quick Trading Lesson and Mantra to Practice Patience

by with No Comment AMT MarketsAssetsFeatured Highlights

Quick Trading Lesson and Mantra to Practice Patience

Current speculative conditions are difficult for day traders. In most cases the market environments are likely very costly too. The amount of recent volatility over the past few months has made brokers very happy and traders very poor in many cases. Traders seeking to profit with limited resources who are using too much leverage have certainly lost money in many cases. No one talks about losses at dinner parties, folks like to brag only about their winning bets.

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Nasdaq 100 One Year Chart as of 15th May 2025

To trade effectively in current circumstances a speculator needs patience, very limited leverage, and even the ability to carry trades overnight. The markets via Forex, equity indices and commodities due to the Trump Effect are fast and volatile. Having too much leverage on one single trade can create devastating losses. An other item to practice under present market chaos is to limit your trading. Do NOT have more than a couple of trades on at one time. Do not divert your attention if you are not able to handle the speed of the markets with too many wagers at one time.

In order to get an effective outcome, you need to not only be focused and use conservative amounts of money to wager on a position, but you also need to be able to handle the volatility of a trade while it losses money. And under the present markets – for instance CFD trading of stock indices like the Nasdaq100 or SP500 – results are dynamic via their reversals. Thus, you need to be able to handle the intraday volatility and perhaps consider carrying a trade overnight which creates other expenses from brokers who charge for the pleasure of near-term trading compared to quick short-term bets. Stop losses are important, but if you use conservative leverage this allows you the ability to let an asset trade via a wider range.

The markets are likely to stay chaotic for a while. Conditions do seem to be improving, but a broad spectrum of assets are still seeing daily moves that suggest nervousness has not disappeared fully yet. Optimism is showing slivers of light for bullish perspectives, but short-term players will watch their visions turn into mirages if they are over leveraged and over confident. Speculators need to remain wary of their perspectives because sentiment will continue to shift rapidly. Clarity may be on the horizon, but in order to profit from more optimistic outcomes patience is needed. The markets as they stand today are a fine example of the tortoise and hare race – a slow steady approach is safer than a helter-skelter rocket ride for traders.

post222

Apolitical Doesn’t Mean Blind to the Trump Forex Reality

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

Apolitical Doesn’t Mean Blind to the Trump Forex Reality

Has everyone stopped panicking in global Forex? It appears financial institutions are showing signs of stability and perhaps even optimism, this as USD centric strength appears to actually have begun giving back the outlandish gains made on Monday when spikes higher were seen across Forex.

The nervous buying of the USD early on Monday morning erupted after President Trump’s ultimatums were not taken seriously by financial institutions late last week. Outwardly it appears that the targets consisting of Mexico and Canada going into the past weekend also wanted to make believe all would be fine. The only nation to say that it would negotiate with Trump prior to Friday was China. And now Mexico and Canada have largely fallen into line.

Speculators may want to be apolitical. They may want to believe Forex has nothing to do with politics. And some traders may not like President Trump and what he represents. However, Forex participants need to make sure they put their biases to the side and understand that economic rhetoric and actions from the U.S do effect the Forex reality.

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USD Cash Index Six Month Chart as of 5th February 2025

We have seen a vast example of this the past couple of weeks, in fact the past few months. Financial institutions have braced for and wagered on their outlooks since early November when the results of the U.S election became known. A strong USD centric element has been demonstrated as they prepared for President Trump to take executive power in the U.S again.

This past week has seen vivid Forex results and demonstrated why it is important to pay attention to international news flow, even when some may want to disregard what they are hearing. The price action in Forex particularly the USD/CAD and USD/MXN this week highlight the significance of not turning a blind eye. The highs seen on Monday followed by the reversals lower have brought support into view. Near-term and mid-term considerations will be fought over by financial institutions and retail traders may find technical opportunities to take advantage of nervous behavioral sentiment.

China which has dealt with President Trump before, appears to have handled the tariff bluster and negotiations better than Mexico and Canada. China has also been laying the groundwork to deal with the new White House administration based on having dealt with President Trump before. The USD/CNY has remained stable and China has set the table to deal with developing economic discussions in a calm manner.

It is not a question of liking or disliking Trump, it is a matter of understanding the reality and being ready to trade the circumstances that are seen across Forex. Bias when trading Forex can lead to bad decisions, it is not about betting on who you like, it is about wagering correctly on the results you believe will happen and managing your risks.

postR194.1

Forex: Dangerous Triggers Abound for Inexperienced Speculators

by with No Comment AMT MarketsAssetsFeatured Highlights

Forex: Dangerous Triggers Abound for Inexperienced Speculators

While the U.S jobs reports via the Non-Farm Employment Change and Average Hourly Earnings will grab attention today, and the Advance GDP this Wednesday and inflation numbers yesterday were important. Institutional trading focus in many respects will be elsewhere, behavioral sentiment and the potential reactions that lurk after the results from the U.S election are known are the biggest risk threat.

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USD/SGD Three Month Chart as of 1st November 2024

Yesterday’s weaker than expected Employment Cost Index will help the U.S Federal Reserve to clip another 0.25% off of the Federal Funds Rate on the 7th of November. However, the winner of the U.S Presidency will be a talking point in the coming FOMC meeting, and also the halls of the U.S Treasury, influencing potential policies. Weaker than expected jobs numbers would fuel dovish perspectives from financial institutions today, but because of the coming U.S election on Tuesday results will fall on ears possibly tuned into other frequencies. And let’s remember last month’s job numbers were stronger than expected, and revisions downward in the back months remains a problem causing mixed sentiment.

Major currencies versus the USD continue to thread within cautious weaker values. USD centric strength has been persistent since the last week of September. If this had been a normal week of trading, the USD would have likely gotten weaker after the Advance GDP results came in slightly less than anticipated. Fuel might have been added to USD selling on yesterday’s lower than expected labor costs too, but this did not happen in many cases. This needs to be a consideration for day traders who are trying to interpret U.S economic data as the U.S election looms. Simply put, behavioral sentiment in the near-term is being more influenced by the race for the White House.

If a trader wants to bet on who they think the winner of the U.S vote will be they need to be careful too, not only because they could be wrong, but if their ‘winner’ takes the presidency, reactions may be more tumultuous than planned. Speculators need to understand that financial institutions too have likely been positioning their cash forward transactions based on who they think is going to win the U.S vote. Meaning wicked reversals and take profit orders could be triggered when the U.S election outcome is known. Forex trading volumes next week should be immense.

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Gold Three Month Chart as of 1st November 2024

It is a dangerous time for inexperienced traders to participate in Forex. Brokers will certainly sell this alluring show and point out that there is a lot of opportunity to make money in the coming days, but the opposite is true too. Because if you can make a lot of money from volatility, you can also lose a lot of money. Folks without deep pockets who are using leverage will be vulnerable to price velocity.

Retail traders need to understand the risks that confront them are dangerous because their Forex positions cannot be held over a long-term because of too much carrying costs, too much volatility and frequently too much leverage. Large financial institutions who are the shakers in Forex play by a completely different set of rules. It may help a day trader immensely to understand they can really only feast on profits when they have been able to ride the technical momentum caused by the influence of financial institutions.

The cyclical nature of Forex has been on full display the past three months. Trading within the USD/SGD the past three months is a solid example of a major currency teamed against the USD and sustaining a strong bearish cycle on the expectation the U.S Fed would become dovish, and then the reversal higher since late September as financial institutions started to become risk adverse. While some analysts may argue this point, the coming results in the weeks ahead will tell us a lot as large players react to clarity via a new U.S President and the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook. Traders large and small over the next five days in Forex will be treated to quite a carnival like experience.

postR183.1

Nervous? Central Banks Cautious, FX and Asset Equilibrium

by with No Comment AssetsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

Nervous? Central Banks Cautious, FX and Asset Equilibrium

Sometimes when looking for ideas regarding a risk analysis article it is difficult to find a timely subject. Exaggeration is often used to grab attention. This week and next will not be one of those times. Equities, Forex and commodities have produced nervous results since last Monday. The broad markets appear to be in search of equilibrium, but price velocity while higher than normal hasn’t produced a volcanic surge of pain. Financial institutions were presented less than inspiring jobs data this past Friday and day traders hopefully had their risk management working. Everyone will need to be paying attention this week too.

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Gold One Month Chart as of 9th Sept. 2024

Gold has hovered around the 2,500.00 level and while it certainly is a short-term speculative asset for day traders, the precious metal also serves as distinct barometer of behavioral sentiment and long-term guidance regarding inflation. Recent economic data has created concerns in financial institutions about the potential for a stronger than anticipated U.S downturn. The volatility and sell off in equity indices last week is a clear sign investors would like the Federal Reserve to be more aggressively dovish.

This coming week is packed with a variety of risk events which will keep all market participants engaged. Long-term investors may feel calm as they rely on their outlooks which extend over a handful of years, but anyone who needs a firm grasp on short and mid-term viewpoints might not be comfortable. It is important not to cry wolf too often, but based on the trading results seen the past week it is worthwhile to point to the turbulent outcomes and issue a warning that more volatility could develop.

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Nasdaq 100 One Month Chart as of 9th of Sept. 2024

Some analysts may apply the thought that what we have seen was profit taking, and this can certainly be debated. The coming two weeks have plenty of noteworthy events on the calendar. Besides the listed risk highlights noted below, the Fed will release its FOMC Statement on Wednesday the 18th, the BoE will follow on the 19th and not to be outdone the Bank of Japan will step onto center stage on Friday the 20th of September.

While long-term investors likely believe all variables will return to known price realms and that central banks sooner or later will fall into their proper places regarding monetary policy, day traders who are gambling on short-term momentum must try to figure out where behavioral sentiment is leaning. One of the ways speculators without deep pockets can put the odds in their favor concerning potential profits, is to make sure they are practicing rock solid risk management and not stepping into Forex trades, equity indices via CFDs wagers, and commodities bets when they are displaying rough conditions without being prepared.

Monday, 9th of Sept., China Consumer and Producer Price Index – the inflation reports from China both came in below their estimates earlier today. While some may believe that less inflation than predicted is a good thing, it isn’t when the economy is suffering from deflationary pressures. Lackluster spending from consumers in China continues to highlight negative sentiment about prospects for growth. The USD/CNY is near the 7.1125 ratio as of this writing.

Tuesday, 10th of Sept., U.S Presidential Debate – while not an economic data event, investors might want to pay attention to the answers given by Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. The race for the White House appears to be close according to various polling. It could prove interesting for financial institutions if Harris is questioned about her ideas regarding taxing unrealized capital gains.

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USD Cash Index One Month Chart as of 9th Sept. 2024

Wednesday, 11th of Sept., U.S Consumer Price Index data – the inflation reports will certainly get the attention of financial institutions. If the annual CPI report comes in weaker than the previous outcome, this could spark more USD centric weakness in Forex. All asset classes will react to the inflation numbers because they are likely to play a major part in the Fed’s FOMC decision in one week’s time. The USD Cash Index is still lingering near lows, but for it too resume a more bearish trajectory, financial institutions will need to believe the Federal Reserve is going to become increasingly dovish.

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EUR/USD One Month Chart as of 9th Sept. 2024

Thursday, 12th of Sept., European Central Bank Main Refinancing Rate – The ECB is definitely going to cut its prime borrowing interest rate, the question is how much of a haircut they are going to provide. A 0.25% cut has certainly been traded into the EUR/USD, but many financial institutions believe there is a possibility to see a 0.50% basis cut. Can the ECB and Christine Legarde be aggressive? The European Union remains under recessionary pressures and inflation data is starting to show signs of erosion. The amount of the interest rate cut from the ECB will also be a telltale sign regarding what will happen via the Federal Reserve on the 18th of September. The EUR/USD will react to the European Central Bank’s decision, and global assets in far off places may react too because behavioral sentiment among investors may shift according to the rhetoric provided. Prediction: The ECB will stay cautious and cut by 0.25%, while saying a November rate cut is likely if economic data remains under pressure. Having said the above, the ECB should cut by 0.50% this Thursday, if they do not – financial institutions will not be pleased unless ECB President Legarde sounds very dovish during her Press Conference.

Thursday, 12th of Sept., U.S Producer Price Index – more inflation data from the U.S will provide investors an other opportunity to glance into the Fed’s looking glass. But if these PPI numbers meet or are near the anticipated results, financial institutions may be reacting to the ECB’s rate decision more because they might believe it is a better clue regarding the Fed’s Federal Funds Rate decision which will come in a handful of days.

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USD/JPY One Month Chart as of 9th Sept. 2024

Friday, 13th of Sept., Japan Revised Industrial Production – this number may not get much attention, but because the Bank of Japan will release its Policy Rate on the 20th, the outcome could impact existing sentiment in the USD/JPY. The Japanese Yen has continued its bearish trajectory and traders who are wagering on more downside should not bet blindly on selling positions because intraday trading remains very choppy. The USD/JPY is now touching values last seen in a sustained manner in early January of 2024, lower values were seen in December 2023, and lower ratios that traversed the 138.000 realm and proved choppy occurred in the spring of 2023.

Saturday, 14th of Sept., China New Home Prices, Retail Sales, Industrial Production – this parade of data from the nation will be important. Foreign investors remain concerned about China’s economic prospects. The deflationary winds that have been blowing in the Asian giant have been well documented. The results from these three reports are expected to be lackluster.

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Impact: Powell’s White Flag, Inflation Data, and the BoJ

by with No Comment AMT MarketsAssetsFeatured Highlights

Impact: Powell's White Flag, Inflation Data, and the BoJ

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s waving of the ‘white flag’ last Tuesday, when he admitted that inflation was producing stronger than anticipated data had been essentially wagered on since the second week of March by financial institutions. Powell’s speech acknowledging the Fed will find it difficult to cut the Federal Funds Rate in the mid-term (and probably at best not until late this summer) simply verified Forex positions which had already been taken by large players who could afford to make mid-term wagers.

The USD Index has returned to early November 2023 values, and appears able to challenge late September and October prices if inflation data this week causes more volatility, which should put traders of major currencies like the GBP, EUR, JPY and others on full alert. After the USD spiked higher from the 10th to the 12th of April, Forex speculators have seen dynamic action incrementally flirting with stronger USD results the past week and a half.

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USD Cash Index Six Month Chart as of 21st April 2024

Nervous trading continues to be seen in U.S equity indices. The Dow 30 and the Nasdaq 100 are fighting near ratios they touched in the last week of January. And the S&P 500 is traversing ground from the first week of February.

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S&P 500 Three Month Chart as of 21st April 2024

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Gold Six Month Chart as of 21st April 2024

Gold remains speculatively high as its hovers near 2,400.00 USD per ounce. The price of the precious metal has not given back its gains made since the start of March and this is intriguing because of the ‘known’ USD inverse correlation, which had proven to work well with the precious metal over the past couple of years but has been stopped in its tracks for the moment. Technically Gold may look overbought, but geopolitical concerns and the prospect that some central banks may be strong buyers could be fueling the rather incremental gains. Retail traders of Gold need to be careful because price action is likely to produce more surprises.

Forex has been turbulent the past handful of months as shifting behavioral sentiment has created choppy conditions. This coming week contains large fundamental risk events via data releases traders should monitor. USD/JPY speculators will also have to contend with the Bank of Japan.

Monday, 22nd of April, China Loan Prime Rates – borrowing costs are anticipated to remain at the current benchmarks. China produced slightly better Gross Domestic Product results last week, but Industrial Production numbers were weaker. Consumers in China remain burdened by decreasing home values and concerns about the economy.

Tuesday, 23rd of April, European Union and U.K Manufacturing and Services PMI – E.U results via the PMI readings are expected to show slight improvements. However the readings from the United Kingdom are anticipated to come in flat. The EUR/USD and GBP/USD will be affected by the results, but the currency pairs will likely remain focused on U.S data later in the day.

Tuesday, 23rd of April, U.S Purchasing Managers Index – the Manufacturing and Services sectors are expected to produce slightly better readings than the previous month. These results will be interesting taking into consideration the Empire State Manufacturing Index numbers last week were bad. The PMI statistics will provide some impetus to the broad Forex market.

Wednesday, 24th of April, Australia Consumer Price Index – inflation data is anticipated to be higher than the previous month’s results. While stronger inflation is not something that will make consumers happy in Australia, stubborn price results may keep the AUD/USD slightly steadier. The currency pair is traversing values last seen in the second week of November 2023 as of this writing.

Thursday, 25th of April, U.S Advance Gross Domestic Product and Price Index – these numbers are certain to have an impact on all financial assets. A decline in growth is anticipated in the U.S compared to the previous month’s result, but the Price Index is expected to show an increase. Jerome Powell having come out last week and said inflation is causing uncertainty within the Federal Reserve, may have a bit of inside knowledge regarding this GDP inflation number and ‘tipped his hand’. If this inflation gauge is higher than anticipated it could pour fuel onto the already volatile USD. All Forex traders need to pay attention to these results and be prepared with solid risk management.

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USD/JPY One Year Chart as of 21st April 2024

Friday, 26th of April, Bank of Japan – in what has already proven to be a couple of weeks filled with drama for the USD/JPY, the BoJ will step into the limelight. During their last central bank meeting the Bank of Japan increased the Policy Rate to 0.10%. It was the first time the BoJ hiked interest rates in 17 years. The USD/JPY is trading at values last seen in June of 1990. The Nikkei 225 has come off of recent record heights, but the famed Japanese stock index is also trading within territory seen in January of 1990. Business activity via the Core Machine Orders and the Tertiary Industry data last week were stronger than anticipated.

The Bank of Japan may want to maintain a weaker USD/JPY equilibrium to continue fostering domestic growth. However, many financial analysts have been calling on the BoJ to become more hawkish regarding monetary policy. The interest rate decision is certain to cause immediate volatility before and after the Policy Rate is made public. USD/JPY traders need to be prepared for fireworks. A slight raise of the interest rate seems to be needed, but after the March hike the BoJ may prove conservative again. The 34 year lows now being seen in the Japanese Yen are astonishing.

Friday, 26th of April, U.S Core PCE Price Index, and Inflation Expectations – the data from the government, and the reading from the University of Michigan will close the curtain on a big week of economic statistics for all traders. The USD will react to these outcomes. It should be noted the previous Inflation Expectations data from the University of Michigan caused a storm in Forex when it came with 3.1% gain.

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Absurd Friday Forex Results? Suspicions as the Week Begins

by with No Comment AMT MarketsAssetsFeatured Highlights

Absurd Friday Forex Results? Suspicions as the Week Begins

This coming week may be an opportunity where speculators can test their conspiracy thinking, perceptions of technical and fundamentals in unison. Experienced traders who typically have a high degree of skepticism about markets (particularly when results don’t go in the direction they expected) may question late last week’s results.

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EUR/USD 5 Day Chart as of 3rd of Sept. 2023

Without trumpets or too much hyperbole, was Friday before going into the weekend a ‘false flag’, this as the USD gained strength against many other major currencies. A lack of volume because of the Labor Day holiday coming in the U.S and Canada tomorrow may have affected the Forex landscape. While trading is largely done by computer programs in financial institutions, day traders should understand last Friday worked as a get away day to enjoy a long holiday weekend in North America.

Meaning financial executives largely escaped their offices because they have seniority and the ability to disappear while their ‘underlings mind the store’. Essentially senior management often tells the staff that has to stay behind, “monitor and not touch the system”. This could have left the door open for what appears to be a strange reaction in Forex upon what was in fact weaker data on Friday from the U.S via the Average Hourly Earnings which came in slightly below expectations, and less than stellar U.S GDP results on Wednesday the 30th of August.

Yes, also this past Friday the Non-Farm Employment Change numbers were fractionally better this month than anticipated, but the prior month’s results were actually revised downward. And yet the USD remained strong. Is this because senior analysts, chief traders and risk management officers were absent on Friday?

Tomorrow the same folks will remain largely away from the markets too, meaning results should also be viewed with suspicion. Which sets the table for an intriguing Tuesday and Wednesday for all the major and minor currency pairs teamed against the USD. Gold and equity markets will need to be monitored closely too.

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Gold Cash Price Five Day Chart as of 3rd Sept. 2023

Some potential clues are that the price of gold stumbled slightly on Friday as the weekend approached, but this happened as the EUR/USD sank to a low for the week, and the GBP/USD came under renewed pressure. But again this happened in rather questionable circumstances. Important support levels technically may get tested tomorrow, but trading volumes should be examined. Gold in many respects held onto gains made earlier in the week.

Yes, there are reasons to be nervous in financial institutions, due to higher short-term U.S Treasury yields, concerns about the China economy, mortgage rate worries in the U.S and elsewhere, fears about credit availability for small U.S businesses. However, these troubles have not caused a massive meltdown in the most primal of trading venues yet – major stock indices.

September is a notoriously volatile month for equities and speculators who use CFDs to participate in the stock markets globally need to be careful. Correct, some well known ‘traders’ are talking about a coming selloff in the markets, but so far we have not seen a major decline in the NASDAQ, S&P 500 or Dow Jones 30 indices. Day traders should not and cannot underestimate the potential for volatility to occur suddenly. Successful speculative bets via limited funds often means having to practice patience and risk management.

Thus, as the week begins early this Monday, day traders should be careful. Please note that a lack of big trading volumes because of the absence of U.S and Canadian financial institutions will make tomorrow’s results questionable. Opening the door for the potential of reversals on Tuesday, which might be abrupt as a ‘re-balancing’ of sorts takes place as folks returning to their offices seek equilibrium perhaps with their adjusted outlooks.

Simply put the U.S Federal Reserve the past two weeks has seen the same lackluster U.S data as all global traders, and the U.S central bank is in no position to raise interest rates over the mid-term. It would be useful if the Fed voiced their insights regarding the weaker than expected U.S Gross Domestic Product results last week, and the lower than expected Average Hourly Earnings report seen before the weekend. However, do not count on the Federal Reserve to do the right thing.

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Fantasy Football Drafts and Finding Key Undervalued Picks

by with No Comment CultureFeatured HighlightsFootball

Fantasy Football Drafts and Finding Key Undervalued Picks

Millions of fantasy football team managers will be picking their players this coming weekend and early next week as the NFL gets set to begin. The Detroit Lions will be visiting the Kansas City Chiefs on the 7th of September which will kick off the season. Real football is great, fantasy football, however, is enticing for many because it allows us as fans to ‘participate’ and show what we know, and sometimes unfortunately don’t know. And like day trading it can also cost money or make profits depending on the ability to select assets and use risk management wisely.

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Fantasy Football Drafts are Coming

Whether you are playing in a fantasy league that has ‘free’ drafts or need to price players per an allowable budget while selecting your team, you need to consider your options carefully. Many fantasy football leagues mandate rosters that include 15 picks. Over the past few years a growing emphasis has evolved around wide receivers as they have outscored running backs by a wide margin.

Top Tier Wide Receivers Compared to Other Positions

Finding solid wide receivers in the first two rounds of the draft is a tactic many players have started to use, then this is followed by choosing a running back or two to fill in these positions which are needed per your active weekly roster. Nowadays you want a running back who also can catch the ball, yards matter and a lot of them come after a pass has been caught.

Quarterbacks, as worthy as they are in the NFL and fantasy football, have become a commodity that many team managers wait on until the late fourth or fifth round to select. Fantasy football team managers need to remember the game is quantified via points on paper and is completely different than the game being played on the field. Your bias against a certain NFL team and the fact that you have a team you root for can often cause a lot of discomfort if you make your selections with these sentiments clouding your judgement.

Selecting positions and the round they are taken also depends on the amount of players in your league. The above is written with the notion that leagues are 10 teams. If you are participating in a league with 12 teams, then you can count on quarterbacks starting to disappear who are considered tier 1 players in the third round. Yes, you will also find fantasy managers who gamble and take a quarterback earlier. However, seldom do you see a qb taken in the first round.

Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts are causing plenty of early selections and looks this year via mock drafts. But fantasy managers need to be careful and make sure they do not overpay by drafting the quarterbacks too high, and lose out on other key positions in which points are accumulated and can prove costly if you miss out on talent which provides needed active roster value.

A key spot on fantasy football rosters includes the ‘flex’ which allows for wide receivers, running backs or tight ends to be used in this ‘extra active’ position. Yes, some leagues allow for two quarterbacks to play at once also. Not to mention leagues that include defensive players, not including defensive teams. The point being that the flex position and the importance wide receivers have taken on often means wide receivers go fast and hard in fantasy football drafts because of their ability to accumulate value better than most running backs and tight ends.

Finishing Well Based on Undervalued Selections that Over Perform

Your decision in the later rounds are often more important than early selections. This is where you can begin to develop a team that finishes high among your friends and competitors. Deciding on your top tier players within positions is important but it is also crucial to decide on who you think is overvalued and who is undervalued. For instance, it has been noticed in mock drafts that the wide receiver Calvin Ridley is being taken suspiciously high by fantasy managers counting on Trevor Lawrence potentially making him a top receiver this season. Folks are counting on outlooks of what could be, instead of what has happened the past couple of years and this could prove dangerous. Lawrence will try to get the ball to him, but will Ridley be ready.

George Pickens of the Pittsburgh Steelers stands out. He is a second year wide receiver who has incredible talent and via many mock drafts seems to be lasting until the 7th round and sometimes even the 8th. The fact that Pickens plays with a second year quarterback who is not getting a lot of attention early either in Kenny Pickett is intriguing. Pickett in ten team mock drafts appears to be lasting until the last round in many cases, allowing for a potentially solid player to backup your tier 1 or 2 quarterback and to be replaced if your starter gets injured or have a bye week.

Does anyone want to go into what DeShaun Watson did last year after missing extensive playing time the past couple of years before? Real game speed takes a while to get used to even by veteran NFL players if they have been standing on the sidelines too long. Counting on players such as Calvin Ridley to immediately perform like a tier 2 wide receiver may prove to be wishful thinking. Yes, he is playing with a quarterback in Lawrence who has all-world talent, but Ridley will have to prove he is ready for prime-time. By the way, DeShaun Watson may prove to be undervalued as a quarterback, if he regains his form which seemingly vanished upon his return from a suspension last season as he struggled.

So what do you do in theory? Staying away from Calvin Ridley who seems to be a gamble in the 4th round and waiting on another wide receiver you believe will perform solidly, but can draft a little lower may be the route to go with more than a handful of players. Passing on tier 2 players and taking a player at another position who you believe will perform better is an option.

Fantasy football results are largely about fulfilling expectations among top players selected and finding hidden gems others have not considered in later rounds. Team managers also have to weigh positions via their point production expectations, and decide if it is better to overload on wide receivers for instance who are in the top 3 tiers, and then wait and gamble on questionable other positions consisting of second or third tier production which may be around later to select.

The same process needs to be used for drafting defenses and kickers. There are only a few difference makers on defense and among kickers who can be counted on to perform and deliver above average results and make them worth taking in higher rounds than normal. San Francisco, Dallas, Philadelphia and the New York Jets are considered top defensive selections by many. However, San Francisco may be gambled on earlier than expected, because their estimated point production may be above the remaining top tier 3 defense’s listed. Kickers work the same way via worthiness, only a few can reasonable be expected to outperform average results. Many kickers are taken in the last round for this reason.

Finding solid undervalued position players in the later rounds after your first five picks can change the outcome of fantasy football leagues. Production from the top selections is always important, but it is your skill level while drafting later that will likely determine your team’s overall performance.

Before you draft your team you should figure out how many wide receivers you want on your roster, a solid number would be to take 5, yes, out of your 15 player roster. This would allow for 3 running backs, two tight ends, two quarterbacks, 1 defensive team and 1 kicker, and then 1 streaming position which can be used to drop and add for players that have bye weeks and injuries that will certainly arise.