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Fantasy Football Drafts and Finding Key Undervalued Picks

Fantasy Football Drafts and Finding Key Undervalued Picks

Millions of fantasy football team managers will be picking their players this coming weekend and early next week as the NFL gets set to begin. The Detroit Lions will be visiting the Kansas City Chiefs on the 7th of September which will kick off the season. Real football is great, fantasy football, however, is enticing for many because it allows us as fans to ‘participate’ and show what we know, and sometimes unfortunately don’t know. And like day trading it can also cost money or make profits depending on the ability to select assets and use risk management wisely.

Fantasy Football Drafts are Coming

Whether you are playing in a fantasy league that has ‘free’ drafts or need to price players per an allowable budget while selecting your team, you need to consider your options carefully. Many fantasy football leagues mandate rosters that include 15 picks. Over the past few years a growing emphasis has evolved around wide receivers as they have outscored running backs by a wide margin.

Top Tier Wide Receivers Compared to Other Positions

Finding solid wide receivers in the first two rounds of the draft is a tactic many players have started to use, then this is followed by choosing a running back or two to fill in these positions which are needed per your active weekly roster. Nowadays you want a running back who also can catch the ball, yards matter and a lot of them come after a pass has been caught.

Quarterbacks, as worthy as they are in the NFL and fantasy football, have become a commodity that many team managers wait on until the late fourth or fifth round to select. Fantasy football team managers need to remember the game is quantified via points on paper and is completely different than the game being played on the field. Your bias against a certain NFL team and the fact that you have a team you root for can often cause a lot of discomfort if you make your selections with these sentiments clouding your judgement.

Selecting positions and the round they are taken also depends on the amount of players in your league. The above is written with the notion that leagues are 10 teams. If you are participating in a league with 12 teams, then you can count on quarterbacks starting to disappear who are considered tier 1 players in the third round. Yes, you will also find fantasy managers who gamble and take a quarterback earlier. However, seldom do you see a qb taken in the first round.

Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts are causing plenty of early selections and looks this year via mock drafts. But fantasy managers need to be careful and make sure they do not overpay by drafting the quarterbacks too high, and lose out on other key positions in which points are accumulated and can prove costly if you miss out on talent which provides needed active roster value.

A key spot on fantasy football rosters includes the ‘flex’ which allows for wide receivers, running backs or tight ends to be used in this ‘extra active’ position. Yes, some leagues allow for two quarterbacks to play at once also. Not to mention leagues that include defensive players, not including defensive teams. The point being that the flex position and the importance wide receivers have taken on often means wide receivers go fast and hard in fantasy football drafts because of their ability to accumulate value better than most running backs and tight ends.

Finishing Well Based on Undervalued Selections that Over Perform

Your decision in the later rounds are often more important than early selections. This is where you can begin to develop a team that finishes high among your friends and competitors. Deciding on your top tier players within positions is important but it is also crucial to decide on who you think is overvalued and who is undervalued. For instance, it has been noticed in mock drafts that the wide receiver Calvin Ridley is being taken suspiciously high by fantasy managers counting on Trevor Lawrence potentially making him a top receiver this season. Folks are counting on outlooks of what could be, instead of what has happened the past couple of years and this could prove dangerous. Lawrence will try to get the ball to him, but will Ridley be ready.

George Pickens of the Pittsburgh Steelers stands out. He is a second year wide receiver who has incredible talent and via many mock drafts seems to be lasting until the 7th round and sometimes even the 8th. The fact that Pickens plays with a second year quarterback who is not getting a lot of attention early either in Kenny Pickett is intriguing. Pickett in ten team mock drafts appears to be lasting until the last round in many cases, allowing for a potentially solid player to backup your tier 1 or 2 quarterback and to be replaced if your starter gets injured or have a bye week.

Does anyone want to go into what DeShaun Watson did last year after missing extensive playing time the past couple of years before? Real game speed takes a while to get used to even by veteran NFL players if they have been standing on the sidelines too long. Counting on players such as Calvin Ridley to immediately perform like a tier 2 wide receiver may prove to be wishful thinking. Yes, he is playing with a quarterback in Lawrence who has all-world talent, but Ridley will have to prove he is ready for prime-time. By the way, DeShaun Watson may prove to be undervalued as a quarterback, if he regains his form which seemingly vanished upon his return from a suspension last season as he struggled.

So what do you do in theory? Staying away from Calvin Ridley who seems to be a gamble in the 4th round and waiting on another wide receiver you believe will perform solidly, but can draft a little lower may be the route to go with more than a handful of players. Passing on tier 2 players and taking a player at another position who you believe will perform better is an option.

Fantasy football results are largely about fulfilling expectations among top players selected and finding hidden gems others have not considered in later rounds. Team managers also have to weigh positions via their point production expectations, and decide if it is better to overload on wide receivers for instance who are in the top 3 tiers, and then wait and gamble on questionable other positions consisting of second or third tier production which may be around later to select.

The same process needs to be used for drafting defenses and kickers. There are only a few difference makers on defense and among kickers who can be counted on to perform and deliver above average results and make them worth taking in higher rounds than normal. San Francisco, Dallas, Philadelphia and the New York Jets are considered top defensive selections by many. However, San Francisco may be gambled on earlier than expected, because their estimated point production may be above the remaining top tier 3 defense’s listed. Kickers work the same way via worthiness, only a few can reasonable be expected to outperform average results. Many kickers are taken in the last round for this reason.

Finding solid undervalued position players in the later rounds after your first five picks can change the outcome of fantasy football leagues. Production from the top selections is always important, but it is your skill level while drafting later that will likely determine your team’s overall performance.

Before you draft your team you should figure out how many wide receivers you want on your roster, a solid number would be to take 5, yes, out of your 15 player roster. This would allow for 3 running backs, two tight ends, two quarterbacks, 1 defensive team and 1 kicker, and then 1 streaming position which can be used to drop and add for players that have bye weeks and injuries that will certainly arise.

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We Have Seen This Show Before Friends

We Have Seen This Show Before Friends

Another day, week, month and year – another financial crisis causing havoc. We have seen this show before, and experienced traders should make sure friends who are ‘newbies’ are prepared for what is going to happen next. And what is next is: unknown.

People who believe they can profit from the current mess in the markets need to have deep pockets to sustain choppy conditions and a time parameter that allows for volatile prices until the results targeted are achieved. Day traders need to have very narrow goals, because if they do not cash out of the market quickly, then they should expect to get burned by the price velocity which will ensue.

Sharks Eating the Minnows as Crony Capitalism Flourishes

The demise of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank are unpleasant surprises, but not shocking, and not to sound too matter of fact or contradictory, but the handwriting has been on the wall. The aggressive stance by the Federal Reserve finally caused enough nervousness in the stock markets to make certain equities shake and the banking sector has proven vulnerable. It is easy for many corporations to make money when it is cheap, but when ‘and not so suddenly’ borrowing costs, inflation and bonds chaos combine and deliver mayhem then profitable outcomes become more difficult, and for some – impossible. Corporate investors do not look kindly on mid-term and long-term projections which hint of negative growth implications. Investors tend to punish these equities.

Gold One Month Chart

What comes over the next week and month will likely anger many people. Capitalism is good, it is even great. However, a dark and evil shadow lurks when crony capitalism starts to have an upper hand. The insolvency of Silicon Valley Bank raises the prospect for crony capitalism to be witnessed by all. Suddenly the U.S Treasury, Federal Reserve and government have emerged to save the skin of depositors within a bank which up until last week was heralding its ability to be a ‘lone wolf’; merrily disregarding sound investment principles and saying they knew better. It is only my opinion, but it stinks of contradiction that both the U.S Federal Reserve and Silicon Valley Bank have made vast mistakes and now are being allowed to cover their tracks and protect members of their ‘club’. Both Fed and Silicon Valley Bank officers need to be held accountable, but do not count on this result producing more than scapegoats.

Rising interest rates which are causing ‘import inflation’ has been a worry expressed by some economists and they can still be heard, but obviously not given enough attention. The Fed has marched to its own drummer and disregarded ‘the street’ for its own ideals and statistics viewed from its ‘ivory tower’ where it could not be held accountable.

Inflation is stubborn, yes, but it is a result of chaos via global commerce from the effects of difficult supply and logistics problems caused by coronavirus. Inflation became problematic two years ago and it was essentially disregarded for about nine months, until the Fed and others admitted rising prices was a concern. Hopes of transitory inflation have faded into oblivion. But I digress…..

Nervous Financial Institutions Battling as Federal Reserve Wavers

A sin bin of mistakes has collected and is now being exposed. Many financial houses were surprised when the Fed came out on the 1st of February and sounded so aggressive talking about inflation while increasing the Federal Funds rate again. Then jobs numbers came out on the 3rd of February, along with Average Hourly Earnings and showed the U.S economy was stronger than expected. The USD began to find strength again, and inflation data then added an extra punch by coming in strong again in February via the CPI results.

Btw, Consumer Price Index will be published today too from the U.S, and this will cause a reverberation for those attempting to day trade among waters filled with nervous financial houses who have their programmed algos ready to take advantage of hectic markets. Volatility the next handful of trading days is set to be wild. The Fed is not likely to raise interest rates by half a basis point on the 22nd of March, but if CPI numbers are stronger than anticipated today, this could cause a tremor and fear. Even if the Fed pauses for the moment, the prospects of raising interest rates again in the near future unless the banking sector shows it cannot sustain another round of Federal Fund increases is troublesome. Nothing like a complete lack of clarity for short-term traders to cause bedlam and a complex gauntlet of inflation statistics to make the Federal Reserve squirm.

Traders have to understand that if they are going to attempt to wager on the markets in the near-term that they are taking a huge risk. The use of leverage could provide solid profits on a winning bets via Forex, commodities or CFD wagers, but it could also wipe a trader completely out if they are caught by a violent wave. And the U.S Federal Reserve is not here to protect small traders, they frankly do not consider your results very much and likely believe you should not be wagering.

What the U.S government and its institutions like the Fed, Treasury and FDIC want to do is guard against systemic risks for the larger speculators – corporate traders, banks, hedge funds, V.C’s, etc. to make sure they do not go belly up and cause a global financial sink hole and long-term ruptures. The financial crisis of 2007 and 2008, the coronavirus pandemic starting in 2020 and the ongoing Ukrainian war have tested the markets and were likely enough for most of us to voice troubles. Now the prospects of a far-reaching banking crisis and illiquidity adding fuel to the fire are quite a combination of risk events usable as costly teaching moments. Do we seriously need another teaching moment however?

We are the little people and nobody sees us. We may yell, we may bellow our angst towards the system, but the system treats us as an afterthought. Day traders should keep this in mind as they bet in the coming days, because more gyrations are likely as a metaphoric ‘country club for institutional risk takers’ is given sanctuary. This as we minnows look up, shaking our heads in disbelief while our trading accounts flounder.