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India Insider: Manufacturing Strategy to Create Rural Jobs

India Insider: Manufacturing Strategy to Create Rural Jobs

Across much of India’s rural landscape, manufacturing remains scarce and finding a solution for this remains a priority. While some towns do have small scale industries that offer jobs, this is still limited. As of financial year 2023, agriculture accounts for only 16% of India’s GDP, down sharply from around 35% in the 1990s, due to a structural shift toward services and manufacturing.

A large share of rural families still depend on agriculture, often engaging in farming and irrigation with modern equipment. However, marketing their produce remains a persistent challenge. Meanwhile, many rural workers are engaged in low-wage trade and commerce, often in informal settings such as small shops and roadside businesses. These roles typically offer limited income and little upward mobility. Falling real wages have pushed many to migrate to India’s urban centers or venture overseas to Singapore, Malaysia, and the Gulf countries in search of better livelihoods, aided by favorable exchange rates.

Capitalism and Efficient Manufacturing

Adam Smith, in his seminal work The Wealth of Nations wrote that, ‘it is not by gold or silver, but by labor that all the wealth of nations is created’. This fundamental idea underpins the modern economic thought that wealth is not derived merely from money, but from the productive capacity of people.

When capital is invested in a capitalist enterprise, it generates profits for the owner, provides wages for employees, and delivers returns (such as dividends) for shareholders. But this cycle of value creation depends on active and efficient enterprise, particularly manufacturing which has been missing or underdeveloped in many parts of rural India.

Unlike countries such as the United States, where people readily relocate across States, India faces some unique challenges. Like the European Union, India is a union of diverse linguistic and cultural regions. It is uncommon for a small business owner from Himachal Pradesh to directly access markets in Tamil Nadu or Karnataka due to language barriers, cultural differences, and logistical constraints. These frictions further isolate rural producers from wider markets.

Garment Industry Values in India, Bangladesh and Vietnam

Strategic Solutions and the Role of State Governments

To revive rural economies, business people along with their state governments must identify and invest in strategic sectors that create jobs and add value. Kerala is a fine example: as one of India’s top spice-producing States, Kerala has the potential to establish local industries focused on spice processing, packaging, and export. Coordination between agriculture and manufacturing can generate employment, stimulate local economies, and enhance foreign exchange earnings.

Albert Hirschman, a development economist, highlighted this approach through his theory of unbalanced growth and economic integration. He argued that certain industries have strong reciprocal connections with other parts of the economy. By prioritizing sectors with good synergy potential, developing countries can achieve significant growth even with limited resources.

Growing competition from countries like Bangladesh and Vietnam which both enjoy favorable trade agreements do pose new challenges, this must be taken seriously by India and create a focus on forward looking international commerce. There will always be competition from distant enterprises and nations, this must be accepted and planned for via commercial insights.

Within India is Tiruppur, a city in Tamil Nadu, known as the ‘Manchester of South India’ due to its vibrant textile industry. The city has created an ecosystem of manufacturing that consistently offers higher real wages compared to other towns in the region. It has successfully shifted labor from agriculture to industry, thereby increasing productivity and income. It is a bright example and defines one way to make progress.

Protecting New Industries and Creation of Success

In his book How Rich Countries Got Rich and Why Poor Countries Stay Poor, economist Erik Reinert argues that nations develop not just by doing what they are currently good – such as agriculture or mining, but by nurturing industries that can become more productive long-term. Typically manufacturing and technology sectors lead to greater innovation and economic resilience.

Reinert provides numerous examples, like South Korea’s emerging growth in steel and its automotive industries, and Ireland’s rise in information technology where specific protections and support for young industries has led to long-term prosperity.

India’s rural transformation cannot rely on New Delhi alone. State governments along with business people must take the lead by identifying sectors that have the potential to foster high growth and employment. Helping to create local value chains, investing in infrastructure, training, and market access will build resilience in these communities. By encouraging small-scale manufacturing and leveraging regional strengths, the country’s rural areas can become engines of economic growth.

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India Insider: Concern IT Empire is at Risk in Age of AI

India Insider: Concern IT Empire is at Risk in Age of AI

When China’s DeepSeek announced its Generative AI program as a rival to U.S based ChatGPT, the world paid close attention. In fact, Nasdaq bellwether stock Nvidia, the world’s most valuable company, took a hit because the DeepSeek product was made with less expensive chip processors compared to ChatGPT’s infrastructure, which uses Nvidia’s GPU technology.

In North America and Europe, DeepSeek’s rollout was met with much surprise and intrigue. And the true ‘poster child’ of India’s post-liberalization era, the IT (Information Technology) sector has been facing its own challenges and was also caught off guard. India’s IT sector employs some 5.3 million people and helps maintain its current account balance sheet by earning crucial foreign exchange reserves. The top four major IT companies have a combined market cap of $300 billion USD, larger than India’s richest man Mukesh Ambani’s Reliance Industries, which stands around $238 billion USD.

Nifty IT Index One Year Chart as of 29th July 2025

India’s IT Business Model and Artificial Intelligence

Indian IT companies operate on a model of software servicing for offshore clients, typically via medium to long-term contracts. Their business operations are embedded across the globe thanks to affordable pricing and the quality of services provided by Indian software engineers. Now, this model is being threatened by the rise of Generative AI and taking it lightly would be a serious mistake by India.

Shares of major IT companies ­- TCS, Infosys, Wipro, and HCL have delivered lackluster returns since their post pandemic rally. Since Covid high valuations amid deal pessimism were a concern. Now those worries are amplified by AI and the disruption it brings to their business models. Software exporters remain the worst performers, the Nifty IT index is down 18% year-to-date, underperforming the broader index consequentially.

The recent release of Q1 fiscal year 2026 numbers from these four IT companies have been met with skepticism regarding forecasted outlook. Analysts noted that Indian IT firms are grappling with margin pressures amid persistent macroeconomic headwinds and rising threats from AI-driven productivity improvements. In response, companies have started to protect their margins with layoffs, TCS (Tata Consultancy Services) shed around 2% of its workforce this past weekend which could affect more than 12,000 jobs.

Time For India’s IT Sector to Become Proactive

Pricing models that IT companies charge customers are changing from long to short-term flexible contracts like ‘pay as you go’ over traditional fixed annual licensing models. Despite changing CEOs in several of these companies over the last few years, animal spirits are failing thus far to innovate AI products that can enhance the bottom line. Instead, companies prefer share buybacks and paying stellar dividends to appease the shareholders rather than to invest in R&D especially when their core model is under threat.

Hang Seng Index One Year Chart as of 29th July 2025

The euphoria surrounding India’s $5.4 trillion equity market is cooling in 2025, amid concerns over slowing earnings growth, elevated valuations, and tariff related uncertainty. At the same time, sentiment towards Hong Kong’s listed Chinese shares are improving with global fund managers rapidly reallocating capital to that market. The Hang Seng Index has delivered an impressive 27% return year-to-date. Meanwhile, India’s stock market still lacks depth for investors seeking meaningful exposure to the booming Artificial Intelligence theme.

Indian IT companies excel at scaling and delivering AI solutions for global clients, but they do not own the core models, platforms, or consumer data needed to become true AI disruptors like China’s tech giants. The industry contributes approximately 7.5% to India’s GDP and remains the primary employment avenue for engineering graduates. It’s time for India’s IT sector to proactively address the growing AI threat posed by global competitors.

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India Insider: Booming GDP & Fragile Foundations of Growth

India Insider: Booming GDP & Fragile Foundations of Growth

India’s economic footprint on the global stage is expanding significantly each year. As the world’s largest democracy, the nation achieved a remarkable 7.4% GDP growth rate January to March of this fiscal year. Yet, beneath this impressive headline, job creation remains tepid, overshadowed by slowing foreign direct investments (FDI) and lower corporate investments from India’s domestic market.

Despite Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s initiative to attract manufacturing into India and boost jobs, the manufacturing share of GDP has stubbornly clung to 16% for the last decade. While India’s services sector accounts around 55% of GDP, the IT and allied services sectors contributes a mere 3-4% of total employment. Even after the last two decades in which India’s Asian neighbors have shifted labor force out of agriculture and into high scale manufacturing, 45% of India’s workforce still are employed in agriculture and aligned services constituting only 15-17% of GDP.

Speculative Capital, Excessive Credit and Rising Financial Risk

Between 2003 and 2023, India attracted approximately $275 Billion USD from foreign capital inflows, encompassing mostly equity and debt foreign portfolio investments. These capital injections are speculative in nature, primarily chasing returns in financial markets, rather than being directly invested into long-term productive infrastructure like manufacturing and export oriented industries.

Foreign Portfolio Investment into India 2003 to 2023

Interestingly, India’s public sector banks especially between 2008 and 2015 aggressively lent to infrastructure, real estate and capital intensive projects. The state owned banks tried to fill the gap left behind by private investors. A substantial share of these loans later turned into non-performing loans, exacerbating a duel crisis as corporate and bank balance sheets came under severe stress within a few years. The government of India stepped in and injected 3.1 lakh crore Rupees ($45 Billion USD) to recapitalize the struggling banks, and also orchestrated mergers of weaker banks with stronger banks. India’s citizens helped cover these costs via higher taxes and hidden banking charges.

Reserve Bank of India: FX Reserves and Liquidity Dynamics 

As of financial year 2025, the RBI’S Foreign Exchange Reserves stand at around $696 billion USD. While a stronger reserve buffer is crucial for maintaining external stability, the Reserve Bank of India’s purchase of foreign currency to build reserves leads to problems with domestic Rupee liquidity and creates liabilities for the RBI’s balance sheet. Unless it’s not fully absorbed via Open Market operations, it will end up as excess liquidity in the banking system.

Post 2020 and the Covid19 pandemic, loose monetary policy and excess liquidity within the banking system has culminated with more reckless lending. Unsecured retail credit particularly in personal loans, credit cards and consumer finance is troubling. Non-banking financial companies (shadow banking) and fintech enterprises also expanded rapidly into this segment and now pose risks.

India Falling into Debt Trap 

Per a recent survey conducted by the RBI,  household financial savings have sharply declined to a five decade low of 5.1% of GDP in FY2023, down from 11.5% in 2021. Concurrently, household liabilities have risen, particularly in the unsecured credit segment.

Delinquencies in small ticket personal loans and “Buy Now, Pay Later“ programs are on the rise, prompting the RBI to intervene recently with tightening of personal loan norms in late 2023. This dynamic suggests that excessive credit creation, unaccompanied by productive or real income growth, is fueling a fragile boom in consumption backed predominately by debt especially among middle and lower income groups.

Lower Net Foreign Direct Investment amid Higher Repatriation

Even with coordinated efforts from the likes of Apple, Foxconn (Hon Hai Technology Group) and other electronics companies setting up facilities, and the assembly of manufactured goods like iPhones as part of the “China Plus“ strategy, a more comprehensive method of doing business and improved proactive FDI policy is needed. Overall results are still falling short. Evidence shows many companies continue to choose Vietnam and Mexico over India, which is clearly reflected in the lower net FDI figures in India’s Balance of Payments. In financial year 2024-25, net FDI fell 96% to $353 million USD, caused by a surge of money being repatriated out of India led by foreign companies, and also increased foreign investments by Indian companies to other nations, per the Hindu magazine.

The irony is that India needs foreign capital to finance its current accounts deficit, long-term capital investment would boost jobs and increase wages. As the central Indian government practices an austerity drive and its corporations show an unwillingness to invest, India needs higher foreign capital at this crucial juncture. How will India achieve this task? Without better employment and raising wages, India’s celebrated growth faces risks from underlying cracks.