Mid-Term Ambivalence Reigns as Major Risk Events Unfold and Await for All Traders
In an effort to lighten the mood of the room let me assure you that most financial analysts feel they are in the dark. Talks with a wide range of investors and large speculators nowadays (at least within my circles) leads to the conclusion that a lack of clarity is becoming a known landscape.
The Federal Reserve will hold conduct its FOMC meetings and rate decision next week. The price of WTI Crude Oil is raging near high water marks. SpaceX is traversing its initial IPO values again. There are major elections on the horizon in Brazil, Israel, the U.S and South Africa which will effect world views starting this weekend and into early November. Some parts of Europe are burning. And the Middle East conflict appears to be on pause, but folks are bracing for a resumption of military noise.
SpaceX (SPCX) Value Since IPO Chart as of 20th October 2026
Add to the above a U.S President who appears able to change his stance in a moment’s notice without showing any outward signs of remorse is also a feature – one that often leaves other leaders perplexed. Except, that the White House seems primed on trying to keep chaos from entering the economic picture by trying to talk the public (voters and the world) into a stated belief that all will be OK, it will be tremendous, magnificent, better than ever before………and Crude Oil will be valued below $65.00 a barrel when everything is figured out, the U.S economy will remain uniquely strong and Wall Street will be a lovefest. The White House is correct to take a positive approach, but others are free to doubt.
And therein lies the problems, when will all be paradise? Clarity over the mid-term is important for investors who crave the basic necessity of being able to have some type of predictive grasp for the coming six months. Where will interest rates be? What will the price of oil be doing? Will the Iranian situation be cleared up? Will Tesla’s flying roadsters crash back to earth or land right side up? (Tesla announces its 3rd quarter results when Wall Street closes tomorrow btw).
USD centric strength continues to fluster Forex positions. U.S Treasury yields have come off their highs but are still elevated. The hidden costs of infrastructure builds for data centers remains an open nasty secret as revenue concerns are discussed. The Nasdaq 100 lurks near record highs, but at the same time creates fear that not enough momentum is being shown upwards – possibly translating into massive losses to come via some technical mindsets. Some are openly predicting a Wall Street crash. We have seen this show before folks, but it is unclear what path is going to develop. The Cassandras’ of the world do get boring as they proclaim a known script.
Yet we stand at a precipice and better know how to scale the cliff. Inflation via Crude Oil prices that are currently gushing past $100.00 are problematic. But should Fed Chair Kevin Warsh raise interest rates next week to try and fight inflation being caused by a geo-political storm that he has no power over? Saudi Arabia, the Houthis, Iran, the UAE, Israel and many others are seemingly waiting for the mid-term elections in the U.S to take place if you pay attention to the media, but is that what really is going on? Doubtful. There are plans being made outside of our known scopes and we are not allowed to look beyond the curtain.
The Federal Reserve should not raise the Federal Funds Rate next week because of oil price fears and even if its inflation remains sticky for the time being. ‘Should not’ being the key words. The USD should return to a slightly weaker stance, but will this happen as financial institutions brace the potential of cumbersome near-term dramas over the next two weeks? Let’s point out that the price of WTI Crude Oil was slightly lower on the 16th of September, during the last FOMC meeting and decision.
No, I am sorry, I do not have a whirlwind of advice for speculators except to say be careful for the moment. As a trader I knew in the past once told me, reading today’s news means you are reacting to something someone knew a few days beforehand – there is a source, a discussion with a journalist, and then the writing and publication of the article roadmap which we must consider when trying to act on news we are reading for the first time. In other words, someone has already traded on the news you are consuming.
Social media and influencers are terrific, but they tend to be a day late. Current trading dynamics offer a slightly different problem for the moment, because large institutional investors have likely positioned themselves ahead of the news flow that the public is consuming as they try to venture forth via their own predictions. However, because confusion reigns for the moment, there is a good chance the financial institutions are wrong. Meaning speculators should use their own perceptions and experience to judge the potential dangerous currents flowing. Hoping for the best will not be enough, being prepared for challenging circumstances near-term will help.
