Nasdaq 100 20260608

Nasdaq 100: Terrible Friday Being Confronted by Manic Monday

by with No Comment AMT MarketsAssetsBehavioral SentimentBusinessEquitiesFeatured HighlightsFederal Reserve, Interest RatesFinancial InstitutionsForexMajor Global Equity IndicesRisk ManagementSpeculatorsUncategorizedWorld

Fear of the Middle East Not the Main Motivator for the Nasdaq 100

After Friday’s selling surge and a fall of -4.77% with a close of 28,957.60, the Nasdaq 100 futures trading this morning has actually seen an increase and is near the 29,479.00 mark as of this writing before the cash Nasdaq 100 market opens.

Friday’s selling nightmare for traders who found themselves stubbornly locked into what were to be short-term buying positions and saw the Nasdaq 100 plummet -4.77%, probably woke this morning believing ugly conditions may not stop. An escalation in military action via proclaimed retaliatory moves between Israel and Iran started today’s trading with a high degree of more anxiousness. USD centric strength in Forex was demonstrated early.

Nasdaq 100 20260608

Nasdaq 100 Futures Value 1 Month Chart as of the 8th of June 2026

However, in the past couple of hours calmer heads have prevailed among financial institutions and USD centric buying in the broad Forex market has run out of steam – at least momentarily. For instance the USD/JPY is near 159.927 currently, opposed to earlier highs seen this morning which challenged the 160.400 vicinity. What does this have to do with the Nasdaq 100 and its current status? 

It appears via futures trading that large players may also have taken a sedative and looked at the index as having been oversold on Friday. The Nasdaq 100 has actually gained early today and signs that a de-escalation of military force between Israel and Iran is being reported. However, that still leaves day traders wondering what will happen as the cash market opens soon and volumes increase.

Let’s Say Quiet Prevails the Remainder of the Day

Not because of a utopian outlook, but a geopolitical perspective, let’s try to image Iran’s stated intentions of no more retaliatory strikes being launched towards Israel as true. The past couple of hours have been more tranquil as a signal in case you are wondering. Then investors and financial institutions will have to digest the Middle East concerns as they have done over the past couple of months in U.S equities, and decide to operate again on the Nasdaq 100 with near and mid-term outlooks.

Friday’s huge selling was blamed by some on the likelihood of a ‘potential’ U.S Federal Reserve interest rate taking place on the 17th of June. This because better than expected jobs numbers showed to some that the U.S economy was running hot once again. 

Additionally expressed fears, which are legitimate, about higher energy costs sparking sticky inflation have been discussed and worried about aloud. Yet, again let’s decide to say even if U.S inflation numbers via the Consumer Price Index come in higher than expected this Wednesday via the coming CPI data, that doesn’t shut the door on the possibility the new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh won’t fight against an interest rate hike during the FOMC meeting next week. In other words it still seems rather unlikely – to me – that the new Federal Reserve Chairman is going to want to initiate higher interest rates the first month on the job. So what if there was another reason for the steep selling on the Nasdaq 100?

Not Paradise but Purgatory

The Nasdaq 100 actually has other questions which have been raised as possible fodder for its large selling this past Friday. Was it spawned because of profit taking by those who took advantage of the index’s fabulous rise knowing that many institutions had been front running the IPO of SpaceX which is scheduled to happen on the 12th of June – this Friday? 

Did large players who rode the wave of frontrunning by financial institutions up in the Nasdaq 100 since late March, decide to cash in profits. There is plenty of nervousness surrounding what will take place with SpaceX in the coming months and long-term via outlooks because of its rather inflated valuation which looks like it will be around 1.7+ Trillion plus at share values of $135.00 per share this coming Friday. 

Questions surrounding SpaceX’s price per sales rhetoric, this instead of price per earnings (because SpaceX is not making a net profit) is just one example. While denying Elon Musk’s genius and ability to create clamor for his companies has proven to be a losing proposition for many, doubters still remain. 

Folks might have cashed out winnings on Friday and decided to now wait on the sidelines to see where behavioral sentiment takes the Nasdaq 100. After two full months of paradise for the Nasdaq 100, a few days of purgatory and seeing which direction U.S indices go may be the right decision by folks who rely on clarity; this as the Middle East gets untangled (or becomes more complicated), the Federal Reserve offers insights on the 17th of June, and large financial institutions lead the way regarding investment decisions.

Copy and paste the text from AMT that you want to share

WTI Crude Oil 20260601

Clues and Insults: Forex and Equity Indices During the Iran Saga

by with No Comment AssetsBehavioral SentimentCentral BanksCommoditiesEquitiesFeatured HighlightsFinancial InstitutionsForexInvestingMajor Global Equity IndicesRisk ManagementSpeculatorsUncategorized

Profits: Optimistic Wagers and Preserving Self as the Party Rages

New Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh certainly doesn’t want to have problems with President Trump. On the 17th of June the FOMC meeting via the Fed will make their interest rate decision known. Who really believes that during the first month on the job at the helm of the U.S central bank that Warsh is not going to fight to keep interest rates in place?

Those who are expecting an interest rate hike in June of a quarter of a point (0.25%) are most likely wrong. Yes, the price of WTI Crude Oil is high and the situation in Iran via narrative varies from one moment to the next per the reported incidents on the Strait of Hormuz.

However, just like the Fed there is a certain amount of reality that must be dealt with regarding human nature and behavioral sentiment regarding Iran and how it is dealt with via market participants. From the department of no news is good news: financial institutions and investors would like the noise to be kept to a minimum so they can continue doing their jobs and not be criticized themselves for potentially wrong outlooks. The art of making sure disclaimers are up to date is important for everyone who wants to stay employed.

WTI Crude Oil 20260601

WTI Crude Oil 1 Year Chart as of 1st June 2026

USD centric weakness was seen late last week in many currency pairs, but a quick glance at the majors: EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY actually show the pairs traversing rather cautious values. The EUR has gained slightly for instance, but at its current levels around 1.16410 some may believe it is a safe equilibrium. (One that may be able to be taken advantage of by those with the ability to bet on mid-term higher trajectories).

Central Banks globally also want to keep the noise down in their various locations. Inflation concerns persists worldwide depending on the amount of knock-on effects that higher energy costs have on national economies.

Also adding additional intrigue to the storyline of wanting to keep quiet while volatility threatens the gates, is that many people with comfortable jobs in various government institutions do not want to step out of line and sacrifice their careers for the sake of being proven right. They would rather be proven wrong, but would like to do this quietly without facing consequences.

The fact that we are now in a situation in which we are afraid to undertake critical thinking aloud is going to cause problems down the road, but for the moment most will simply go on with their various duties and pretend all is well.

U.S equity indices have been having a massive upwards party since the end of March as record heights are attained. Certainly some long-term investors are simply throwing money into indices as a way to get positioned before the SpaceX IPO which is coming soon. There will also be the Anthropic IPO which is reportedly set for late 2026.

The SPCX which seems to be aiming for the 12th of June will create a valuation well above 1 Trillion USD for SpaceX. The perceived value of Anthropic is becoming a loud talking point among analysts in the tech sectors and they are keen to have the company join the 1 Trillion USD party. The cost of admission for bragging rights is getting more expensive.

There was a time when things like PE (price and earnings) ratios mattered on Wall Street. Some brave folks still whisper about such things in meetings and bars late at night, but many do not want to be insulted or possibly worse get marketing folks selling these high priced products angry. The reason for speaking softly about actual earnings regarding SpaceX is because the company is actually working via an earnings loss, and instead price to sales estimates are being offered as some type of guideline. Having said the above, it would be foolhardy to bet against SpaceX and Elon Musk. And it might be equally unwise to bet against Anthropic in a handful of months. And thus, the rush into equity indices because there is a genuine fear of missing out does exist. Afterall, we all want to be part of the party.

And that brings us back to Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh who has the backing of President Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, he doesn’t want to insult these men either. Warsh may be quite good at what he does, he might be an expert and have real world business experience, and that might be a real clue for Forex traders who think higher interest rates are coming. Warsh will likely want to keep his first months on the job at the Fed on good terms with the White House and the Treasury. Kevin Warsh might be a free-thinker and know legally he is an independent leader of the Federal Reserve, but he also knows he was hired with a stated mission. There is a pro-business, free enterprise administration in power at the White House. Bessent, Warsh and Trump are on the same team.

So again, while some traders may believe the Fed will raise interest rates in June because of concerns of higher inflation, it most likely will not happen. While the Iranian war continues to make headlines in the financial world and dealt with via sentiment decisions, actual economic U.S data will start being watched in the coming days and weeks and might even influence perspectives. Investors will get bored of the Iranian saga as long as its narrative stays somewhat tepid. Meaning investors will start looking at CPI and PPI numbers coming from the U.S next week and talking about higher interest rates that will likely not be delivered in the upcoming FOMC meeting. 

The price of WTI Crude Oil as boring as it is to say remains a strong sentiment gauge for traders intraday. Large players involved in Forex might believe this will involve higher interest rates, but on the 17th of June it is more likely that Kevin Warsh will say that for the moment the Fed chooses to watch energy sector costs with the belief prices will decline in the coming months. The Fed will not use the term ‘transitory’ which was used infamously during the Covid crisis and turned into a poison pill with inflation that was not effectively fought. What the Fed will likely do is say they want more info to be gathered and more clarity regarding the Iranian situation and its overall effect on oil prices for a little while longer. Some patience will be asked for and it might be granted by investors who want the party to continue via equities.

Day traders should expect cautious markets to prevail in Forex with choppy results as financial institutions weigh their behavioral sentiment and try to make believe they are not too worried about near-term inflation. The CPI and PPI readings next week will prove of interest, but the results may be brushed aside by market pundits.

In the meantime, the celebrations on Wall Street continue as folks march merrily into the frenzy. Retail speculators who want to pursue short or near-term profits on the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 or Dow 30 indices need to be careful and might want to stay away from daily bets and instead engage in conservative positions that allow for a full week of results. The gains made since the end of March have been outlandish and likely will not be repeated anytime soon, but why try standing in front of a trend that can crush you.

Near-term considerations in these markets should be done carefully. The mid-term may be very different from where we stand today and our current outlooks. One thing that may bother some risk analysts is that it may prove wrong to bet against the current parade of optimists who insists on participating in dangerous conditions and profit, while they (the risks mavens) stand in place.

Copy and paste the text from AMT that you want to share

US Dollar Index 20260627

The USD and The Art of Not Knowing

by with No Comment AssetsBehavioral SentimentCentral BanksEquitiesFeatured HighlightsFederal Reserve, Interest RatesFinancial InstitutionsForexInvestingRisk ManagementSpeculatorsUncategorizedWorld

Being Mature Enough to Know You Don't Know as You Watch the Marketplace

Ask anyone that typically knows how they gauge the state of the global marketplace for the near-term and you are likely to either get a solid, “I have no idea” now. Or a bunch of thoughts on what might happen, which might lead to being more confused. Simply put at this point, it is easier to admit that potential conclusions regarding the world’s current affairs taking place and effecting the global marketplace are out of most peoples’ hands. 

Even those who have duties within the higher paid grades likely are just as confused about the potential unintended consequences not wanted, and results they hope will be achieved. And what am I speaking about exactly, regarding the world and its state of affairs, is that even qualifying the particular topics are difficult to put a finger on. Ramblings certainly include the Iran saga, but Cuba, the Ukraine, the NATO pact, shifting world alliances and future ones are creating a whirlwind. Besides the rather noisy political landscape of the USA. Not to mention China and Russia and other nations with aspirations.

Yet, the global markets continue to trade, albeit within a confused haze it sometimes appears. But do not be despondent day traders, brokers and their platforms will offer you the opportunity to wager on results of the USD in Forex, and CFDs certainly contain opportunities in major equity indices the world over, various big singular companies, commodities and yes cryptocurrencies (apologies to Bitcoin fans – who insist it is called a digital currency).

US Dollar Index 20260627

U.S Dollar Index Six Month Chart as of 27th May 2026

Iran War and Unclear Results

The U.S Dollar Index for the moment is near the 98.880 ratio, which it should be pointed out is near the values it swam upon the April 8th announcement of a ceasefire between Iran and the States, this after dropping from its 99.800 threshold on the 7th when investors were more troubled. The ceasefire is still in effect and now there seems to be a resolution which is being hoped for by the U.S White House – although when pressed about what negotiations between Iran and the U.S will result in delivers a few different versions of ideas. 

Perhaps that is to be expected via the fog of war, but what should not be expected is an easy path to a genuine resolution. And even if there is a pact of some type, what objectives will have been genuinely fulfilled? But alas, that is a question for those in the future, because the facts on the ground do not bode well for ordinary Iranians who have yearned for freedom. 

The Fed Has a Problem

But again, let’s not dwell on things like the individual rights of people, money is at stake…..(that is humor folks, others can call it sarcasm). The price of WTI Crude Oil has dropped this week on the idea that a resolution will actually be accomplished between Iran and the U.S – one at least that allows tankers to navigate the Hormuz Strait. 

The price of WTI via futures at this moment are around the $90.00 mark again, this after moving within sight of 88.00 USD earlier today. At the end of last week the $96.00 mark was in sight for WTI. And the price of energy continues to cast a shadow that is moving over the U.S Federal Reserve and has large implications for the new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh. 

The mid-term versus the long-term in financial institutions as they judge their interest rate perspectives are likely making for rather entertaining dialogue. And let’s not forget ladies and gentlemen, the U.S mid-term elections are approaching in November of this year and are resulting in primary elections that are punishing Republicans who voiced criticism towards President Trump. The question about who will hold power in the U.S House of Representatives is a big riddle. Even the U.S Senate leadership may be fragile. Why is that important, because if President Trump were to become what is known as a lame-duck President during his last two years in office, this would produce different outlooks among investors. Stay focused on the money people. 

Our Forex Friend: The BoJ

The USD/JPY is now traversing its 159.490 vicinity again, and perhaps that is a bell weather for soothsayers to criticize again. The Bank of Japan is watching the Japanese Yen as its trades within sight of its weakest values, and yes, the BoJ can be expected to issue another warning to speculators once again about being run over by an intervention. The BoJ’s broken record about interventions have produced solid results for folks who are able to trade the USD/JPY with positions that can be held for a few weeks at a time – namely hedge funds, large players and some financial institutions. Retail traders trying to take advantage of the USD/JPY are likely suffering trauma via anxiety if their wagers have gone in the wrong direction.

SpaceX and Scams in the Cryptoworld

And as a bonus, let’s not forget about rumblings regarding SpaceX and another topic within the I do not know category. Elon Musk has set the table for an attempt at a 2 trillion USD market cap after the IPO for the corporation is launched in the second week of June. The value of SpaceX can be and will be argued for the next few years as admirers and critics lineup to be heard and spread sheets are compared regarding revenues against one of the greatest marketing giants of our time. Intriguingly, however, are hints that there has been a lot of cryptocurrency fiddling regarding how the corporation is going to allow investors to participate. Apparently there have been tokens issued in the cryptocurrency world that have promised some type of participation in SpaceX and most are being exposed as scams and have nothing to do with the company or Musk. Buyer beware folks.

Copy and paste the text from AMT that you want to share

US Cash Index 20260424

Upcoming Weekend Nervousness: Does Anyone Know What is Going On?

by with No Comment AssetsBehavioral SentimentEquitiesExclusive ContentFeatured HighlightsFederal Reserve, Interest RatesFinancial InstitutionsForexInvestingMajor Global Equity IndicesRisk ManagementRobert PetrucciSpeculatorsUncategorized

Preaching Caution and Looking Like a Fool to Those Who Want to Profit

Can someone please tell the rest of us what is going on? Global markets via Forex this morning are demonstrating additional USD centric strength which developed yesterday. The price of WTI Crude Oil is above $94.00. Gold is languishing and around 4,675.00 USD. And although the 3 major U.S stock indices are all within their higher realms – one thing stands out – folks are uneasy.  But then again, the markets never move in one direction only, and perhaps current results can be interpreted as profit taking by those on winning sides.

US Cash Index 20260424

U.S Dollar Index One Month Chart on the 24th April 2026

I would love to be the person to tell you what is going to happen, but as this weekend looms making short and near-term bets still appears a fool’s game. Yes, it is easy to make predictions, but being correct is more difficult. Retail traders are suffering more than most market participants, this as leverage and a lack of funds to remain in a position through violent reversals destroy plenty of trading accounts.

There is talk of manipulation via chat rooms regarding the price of WTI Crude Oil. The usual dialogues can be seen – largely based on conspiracies via large players trying to blow out smaller traders. However, these types of forum chatter are mostly wrong. Large players are getting hurt too in the energy markets. Anyone who is taking a position in order to speculate on a quick hitting foray in WTI is betting on their perceptions. 

The problem is that unless there is inside knowledge of what the next words out of President Trump’s mouth are going to be, or that from Iranian officials – any pursuit of WTI Crude Oil at this juncture is a ‘vibe’ trade. What is going to happen from Saturday and into Sunday is an unknown quantity. Folks holding positions into this weekend need to understand they are wagering. And some may find they are quite profitable afterwards, while others grimace and find themselves on the wrong side of the next surges higher or spikes downward. Intraday trading volatility in nothing new however.

The USD/JPY is near 159.600 as of this writing. The EUR/USD is close to 1.16820. While a tourist traversing foreign lands may not find the Forex incremental shifts in value mesmerizing or of interest, FX traders who do not have deep pockets are likely wondering why risk adverse conditions are prevailing suddenly. But as a risk analyst, I must say that conditions simply may have been perceived to have been oversold in the USD by financial institutions, this as the Fed looms on the horizon.

However, my task as a risk analyst the past two months has been like a carnival barker, because while it has been easy to say that a show is happening within the big tent of speculation, I have been hard pressed to predict short and near-term directions correctly. Perhaps I fret too much. The optimistic thunder claps upwards in the stock markets since the 31st of March have been astounding to many. Hopefully it has been prosperous for day traders, but the likelihood is that financial institutions are the ones who are profiting more via their pension funds purchases for institutional clients.

This coming week the U.S Federal Reserve will make their FOMC decision public. This will be Jerome Powell’s swan song at the Fed. The Chairman is being faded out by the U.S White House mid-May. And somewhere when he is all alone, Jerome Powell may be having a quiet laugh to himself. The Fed will not act this week. Rates will remain the same – unless there is some bizarre move in the global markets over the next handful of days. Yet, Powell’s remarks will be listened to for warnings. While it is not in Powell’s nature to issue a ‘I told you so’ quote, and he is likely content to walk away from the Federal Reserve quietly, it would be captivating if Powell looked into the cameras and pointed fingers. 

But because Jerome Powell like most others, likely has no clue what is going to happen next internationally he will remain mostly mute (cautious as always).

And here we meet again, wondering what the next 72 hours hold. Will the Iranian ceasefire remain observed? Is it even a ceasefire in reality? The Strait of Hormuz remains a linchpin for military action by the U.S Navy and Iranian Revolutionary Guards via a cascade of ship seizures. Maybe that continues to be the key, WTI Crude Oil prices remain a crucial barometer. USD centric prices via Forex action seems to be a reflection of fear or positive thinking in the energy sector depending on the prevailing tides.

Last week there was so much optimism folks were talking about WTI prices potentially hitting $75.00 and lower, now this hope seems to be wishful thinking. Global markets will remain fast and dangerous, that is easy to say and is right, but telling you which direction assets will move, that is a bit different.

And there is the old standard test I use when an opinion is definitely asked for: if someone were to put a gun theoretically to my head and ask me what I think, I would venture to say things will remain quiet and optimism will seep into the markets before the close this weekend. However, I don’t like to play fool’s games, so I will leave now and wish you luck via your own perspectives because the near-term remains more speculative than normal for day traders – even if strict risk management is used. 

Copy and paste the text from AMT that you want to share

postN87

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Missiles and Missives for the 29th of March, 2026

by with No Comment AssetsBasketballBehavioral SentimentBusinessEquitiesFeatured HighlightsFinancial InstitutionsInvestingRisk Management

The Iranian War Dominates our Lack of Humor

10. Final Four: The Men’s NCAA Basketball Championship will be set after today’s games. The Arizona Wildcats, our pick, advanced to the Final 4 by beating Purdue last night. Michigan is favored to beat Tennessee and the Duke vs. UConn game is anticipated to be close. The University of Illinois advanced by beating Iowa on Saturday and maybe the biggest underdog – if the Volunteers lose to the Wolverines today.

postN87

AMT Top Ten for the 29th of March 2026

9. Jobs Data: U.S Non-Farm Employment Change numbers will be published during a banking holiday on the 3rd of April, this as the Iranian war shadows investment sentiment. Will potential jobs numbers results create nervousness on Thursday, and side effects Monday the 6th of April? 

8. Private Equity: Outflows remain a problem for BlackRock and other firms as deal making comes under a bright light. Investors are questioning valuations, lack of exits and money that sits in ‘zombie’ funds. Imposed limits on redemptions by some firms have created nervous indicators. Is the private equity problem correlated to lackluster momentum on Wall Street, this as desire for the next big thing runs out of marketing hyperbole?

7. 10-Y Notes: U.S 10-Year Treasury yields finished the week near 4.43%, Friday’s price action saw an apex around the 4.48% vicinity, highlighting nervousness. On Friday the 27th of February 10-Y yields were close to 3.94%,

6. Forex: USD/JPY ended this past Friday around 160.250, making it cheaper for tourists to visit Japan as cherry blossom season starts this week and lasts into early May. However, the Bank of Japan and Japanese citizens are not amused by the weakening Yen. USD centric strength continues to resonate loudly. 

5. Fed: Potential drama surrounding the U.S central bank and the replacement of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has taken a backseat to the Middle East conflict. Concerns about inflation are legitimate. The Federal Reserve will be hard pressed to defend an interest rate cut in the mid-term.

4. President Trump: Speaking from both sides of his mouth (and his opponents might say another area of the body) may be strategic genius from the White House regarding Iran or prove to be a lack of focus. However, it certainly keeps everyone guessing what is going to happen next in the Middle East.

3. $100.00: WTI Crude Oil prices have remained below the one-hundred level for the most part during the Iranian war, yes – there have been outliers above. Will we begin to see sustained prices above the century mark this week? Short-term reactions to the U.S military potentially seizing Iran’s Kharg island would certainly cause price chaos, but could it also soothe some large players in the energy sector via mid-term outlooks? 

2. Good Friday: The holiday at the end of this week will be effected by anxious behavioral sentiment. The potential of a long weekend with plenty of noisy chatter could make for nervous investors this coming Thursday as they position themselves ahead of possible escalating storms.

1. Fear: The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 have entered corrective depths. Who will be brave enough to start looking for bottoms as the Iranian war rages with no end in sight? Will a reversal upwards emerge this week?

Copy and paste the text from AMT that you want to share

post297

Significant Highs All Around as Speculation Grows Frothy

by with No Comment AssetsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

Significant Highs All Around as Speculation Grows Frothy

Gold, platinum, and the major U.S indices are all flirting with record values. Fast trading is being seen on all fronts, dangerous reversals are also being displayed and causing harm for day traders. The U.S government shutdown remains in full force. Not enough pain has been heard from the U.S public yet which would make politicians pause and actually try to negotiate a deal.

Milestone apex values have been experienced. Gold has produced the 4,000.00 USD per ounce level and sustained value, the Nasdaq 100 toppled 25,000.00 the past two days, but has moved lower for the moment. Conditions for day traders are swift and they need to be careful. And while the U.S government is shuttered, the Federal Reserve is still expected to announce their FOMC interest rate decision on the 29th of October. A Federal Funds Rate cut of 25 basis points is still anticipated.

post297
Gold Three Month Chart as of 8th October 2025

Forex has seen jittery results as the EUR, GBP, JPY have struggled in recent trading versus the USD. And while some people may point to the stellar results and values within Gold and Bitcoin as evidence for safe haven wagers being placed, large speculators are playing a key ingredient in the broad markets too. Investors are certainly looking for value and have a belief that buying now represents a discount compared to what Gold and equity values will be over the long-term. However, day traders should also remember that a large amount of influence in the markets derives via behavioral sentiment, and as record highs are being challenged anxiousness grows regarding potential responses from speculative forces particularly when profit taking remains a part of wagering.

post296
Nvidia Three Month Chart as of 8th October 2025

While questions and concerns are heard about a possible AI bubble being experienced and too much money being invested in equities like Nvidia, Oracle, Microsoft, etc., folks need to understand long-term investors are gearing their portfolios towards outlooks. Betting on these companies playing a significant role in technological advancements is a long-term viewpoint which works on optimism. Artificial intelligence is important, but the motor that runs AI infrastructure via semiconductors, big data distribution, servers and cybersecurity are crucial. The promise of quantum computing is also experiencing a surge of investment because of a belief in the future.

post295
USD/JPY Three Month Chart as of 8th October 2025

And that is what day traders who are tempted to bet against the trends in the marketplace need to remember. Investors will not bet against Wall Street because of the government shutdown. In fact, they will certainly be heard joking that corporations run more effectively with less government intrusion.

This is not a simple puzzle. Complexity certainly needs to be considered regarding valuations in the EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY. Intriguingly, day traders may want to take a look at the South African Rand too, because technically it continues to be strong against the USD, which is rather out of step and a rather interesting non-correlation. The broad Forex market has lost some its luster for day traders the past year because of a lack of perceived volatility across the board. But volatility may be on the way, the Japanese Yen certainly stands out and should be watched via the USD/JPY and JPY crosses in the coming days and weeks.

post287

Forex: Tomorrow is Known, October and Beyond are Uncertain

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

Forex: Tomorrow is Known, October and Beyond are Uncertain

The U.S Federal Reserve will cut its Federal Funds Rate by 25 basis points tomorrow. The big question all financial institutions would like some clarity about is whether the U.S Central Bank will strongly suggest that another cut of 25 basis points will need to take place in late October during the next FOMC meeting.

post287
EUR/USD One Year Chart as of 16th September 2025

Forex has certainly seen the USD weaken because a definitive interest rate cut has already been factored into mid-term outlooks. Those who are betting on a 50 basis point cut tomorrow are spitting into the wind and most likely wrong. The Fed under Jerome Powell has proven time and again that it is cautious. The word uncertainly is likely to be heard on Wednesday, even as the Fed Chairman admits conditions warrant cutting interest rates further.

And this is where it will get tricky for day traders betting on conditions beyond tomorrow. Since the quarter of a point cut has been factored into Forex already, and the EUR/USD, GBP/USD and even the USD/JPY are bouncing up against technical inflection ratios for the time being, powerful reactions and dangers will ignite based on the perceptions generated about late October outlook. It is likely some large financial institutions have already priced a rate cut of 25 basis points into the USD already for their October outlooks, meaning some big houses have accounted for a 50 basis point cut mid-term.

It is probable some larger firms have remained conservative, and have not leaned into overly confident cash forward contracts for their corporate clients. This because they want to be certain the Fed is definitely setting the table for another interest rate cut in October.

post286
Gold Five Year Chart as of 16th of September 2025

Nothing is guaranteed and Fed Chairman Powell is likely to state this obvious point tomorrow. However, he may have to admit the jobs market looks weak. And he may have to also acknowledge, that although he and other FOMC members remain concerned about the threat of inflation, that for the moment it remains somewhat tame. This is where a secret ingredient in Forex trading tomorrow may fuel volatility. Inflation fears telltale signal is being seen in the current price of Gold which is within record territory and sight of $3,700.00 as of this writing, this even as the 10-Year U.S Treasury yields have decreased.

As a critic of the Federal Reserve’s conservative approach to cutting interest rates the past half year, I have to acknowledge that it is important that the Fed remains nimble, they cannot simply give into pressures from political circles. However and unfortunately, the Fed has been anything but nimble the past six months. The Fed should have cut interest rates by 50 basis points in total in the late spring and early summer, they did not. Now they are once again behind the proverbial curve and in a position in which they are being forced to be reactive instead of proactive.


Again the Fed has at its disposal high tech quantified data via its distinct Fed Districts to know the economic landscape and react at a quicker pace. It chooses not to do this efficiently, this was a feature of the Fed’s inability to accept that inflation was a danger almost four years ago and its snail like reaction which caused economic harm. Now the Fed finds itself in a position in which it should be admitting that it should have been cutting interest rates six months ago, while also knowing logically storm clouds are on the horizon regarding murky economic outlooks due to the threat of inflation actually increasing in the mid-term. Justification for a nimble Federal Reserve remains a pragmatic desire.

Here’s the thing, the Federal Reserve is going to cut the Funds Rate by 25 basis points tomorrow and say they are considering another cut in October. The Fed will probably also say after another cut in October, that they anticipate taking a way and see approach into the end of this calendar year.

Regarding the potential reactions of the EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY tomorrow and into Thursday, volatility needs to be expected. The consolidation we have seen develop the past few days near important levels that seemingly are holding back large value moves will vanish for day traders. Small retail speculators in Forex need to understand what they view as massive moves are often considered simple small mathematical gyrations by financial institutions which are not only participating in the cash forward business via FX rates, but also taking part in hedging via futures trading through the likes of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and other venues.

post285
USD/JPY One Year Chart as of 16th September 2025

It needs to be noted the Bank of England will release its Official Bank Rate on Thursday along with its Monetary Policy Summary. And the Bank of Japan will issue its Policy Rate and Monetary Policy Statement on Friday. The BoE is not expected to change its borrowing rates on Thursday, and the Bank of Japan is expected to stand in place too. It should be pointed out that the Bank of Japan does have room to increase its borrowing costs, but the government of Japan appears to be married to maintaining a weaker Japanese Yen, much to the chagrin of some economists.

If the Fed admits they need to likely cut interest rates again in October this might spur on some USD weakness and create volatile conditions tomorrow and Thursday. However, if the Fed offers the phrase that they will take a wait and see approach after October, until further economic data can be accessed in November and December, then the USD may start to show signs of firming. The Fed’s interest rate is 4.50% today, by the end of Wednesday it should be at 4.25% with signs that by the end of October it will be 4.00%. Looking for more than those clues is speculative, financial institutions want answers like everyone else.

post278

Behavioral Sentiment: False Narratives and Noisy Realities

by with No Comment AMT MarketsAssetsFeatured Highlights

Behavioral Sentiment: False Narratives and Noisy Realities

The past handful of months in Forex have provided day traders problems if they have been trying to pursue steady trends. Constant flashes of rhetoric and news pervading tariff implications, U.S Federal Reserve interpretations from various media and analytical corners, and mixed economic data has caused a rather mired reality for speculators trying to operate.

post278
S&P 500 One Year Chart via Futures CFD Trading on the 9th of September 2025

However, if the noise is turned down by day traders and sometimes given less importance regarding potential influences, signals become visible and some perceptions can be looked upon as roadmaps. While many want to to throw their hands up and proclaim some sort of developing economic meltdown and a coming apocalypse, the major U.S indices are actually performing quite well as a barometer. The S&P 500 is continuing to challenge all-time values. Yes, the Nasdaq 100 and Dow Jones 30 are not marching in lockstep with the S&P 500 to new highs, but they are not far behind. The stock market has never guaranteed people an ability to constantly move upwards, but it does offer the potential to judge outlook and mid-term sentiment.

The USD has been extremely choppy since the start of this year, this as the Trump administration has taken over, but its trend towards weakness has been rather clear. The EUR/USD and GBP/USD have done reasonably well regarding mid-term strength. Yes, the USD/JPY has produced whipsaw movements and the Japanese Yen remains awkward, but this is a direct reflection of mitigating Japanese government policy (some may call it incompetence) regarding its ability to manage fiscal concerns, interest rates, and fight deflation and now inflation (which has been going on for a few decades).

Gold is traversing record heights and is showing signs of sustaining values above 3,600.00 as of yesterday. After languishing (albeit within elevated realms) near 3,350.00 the past handful of months with prevalent volatility, the precious metal has bolted out of its consolidation. And the likely reason for this is the anticipated Federal Reserve policy changes regarding interest rates. 10 Year U.S Treasury yields have also been pushed lower recently – this as financial institutions await a definite cut in interest rates by the Fed on the 17th of September. But folks who believe a 50 point basis reduction is coming late next week are likely wrong.

The Federal Reserve under Chairman Jerome Powell has been quite conservative, this will probably not change next Wednesday. It is more likely a cut of 25 basis points will take place on the 17th, and the FOMC Statement will offer the potential of another interest rate cut in October. Tomorrow’s PPI numbers and Thursday’s CPI results will influence the Fed’s coming meeting and mid-term outlook.

What we are left with is a broad market that is having a lot of noise applied to it by people with a variety of biases. Political bantering has reached a threshold in which it might be best to simply not pay attention to anything – but that is dangerous too. Yes, some people do talk sense, and some people do show signs of actually trying to engage in adult decision making regarding their insights, but it often feels like wanting to sound correct is more important than outcomes. Technical traders may be enjoying a quiet laugh at the expense of fundamental players right now.

However, economic data remains important. While rhetoric from the U.S White House and its opponents remains within a state of hyperbole, day traders should try to turn down the noise and pay attention to signals that long term investors continue to produce and take advantage of their sentiment. Stocks continue to be pursued and indices have done well, but volatility should be expected particularly into next week.
post217

USD/JPY: Bank of Japan Actually Does its Job: Raises Rate

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

USD/JPY: Bank of Japan Actually Does its Job: Raises Rate

post217
USD/JPY Five Day Chart as of 24th January 2025

The Bank of Japan actually raised its Policy Rate by 0.25 to 0.50% this morning. The move was done while the central bank stated the Japan economy is improving. The Bank of Japan also noted that the implications of U.S tariff policy are not completely known, thus it is acting on existing facts. The action by the BoJ created selling in the USD/JPY and is a healthy sign.

While the U.S Federal Reserve has taken on a cautious tone, President Trump has started to signal via rhetoric that he would like to see U.S interest rates lowered. The Fed and President Trump may find that they are in disagreement regarding mid-term policy and Forex traders shouldn’t be surprised if the debate escalates. The USD/JPY is trading near the 155.500 vicinity with fast price action at this moment. The ability to sustain values below the 156.000 level will be important technically if maintained. A fall below the 155.000 ratio may indicate more selling should be expected.

While financial institutions globally remain nervous about U.S economic policy regarding trade negotiations, Japan for the moment is out of the spotlight regarding tariff implications. The USD/JPY was trading near the 153.000 area on the 17th of December and it will be intriguing to see if large players use this level as a target in the coming days.

Retail traders should practice solid risk taking tactics and conservative leverage. The ability of the Bank of Japan to increase its interest rate, while the U.S Fed is in the midst of considering no changes to the Federal Funds Rate is a potentially solid sign for USD/JPY bearish attitudes.

Global Forex conditions remain choppy, but there has been some buying of the EUR/USD and GBP/USD produced recently. Next week talk of tariffs against China, Canada and Mexico will heighten, but traders need to understand the tough sounding talk from Trump is part of his negotiation tactics. While he certainly seems intent on carrying out his mandate, he will also be open to finding a way to create agreements.

Behavioral sentiment is in charge of Forex for the moment. Outlooks remain unclear, but USD centric strength may be traversing within the apex of its highs in many cases.

postR196

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Votes for the 4th of November

by with No Comment AssetsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Votes for the 4th of November

postR196

10. Priorities: Not to dismiss the execution of beloved Peanut the Squirrel by New York authorities recently, but lets reflect on the fact that this little fellow made international news while wars are raging, and nearly 300 people in the U.S are dying from drug overdoses per day. Social media is rather powerful.

9. NBC: Kamala Harris appeared on Saturday Night Live for roughly 90 seconds this weekend, this created criticism and questions about unfair airtime for the Vice President. SNL is lucky to get more than 5 million viewers per episode on average. To try and apologize for the potential trouble, NBC then gave Donald Trump free commercial airtime twice yesterday, once during a NASCAR race which on average attracts over 3 million viewers, and on a Sunday night NFL broadcast which averages sometimes up to 22 million viewers.

8. Saber-Rattling: There is a potential Iran is waiting on the outcome of the U.S vote for President before undertaking more military actions. Deciding if and how they are going to launch another attack on Israel, depending on who wins the U.S election because of the potential ramifications is likely part of their military strategy.

7. BTC/USD: Bitcoin as of this writing is trading near 68,500 USD. The digital asset continues to bounce around rather intriguing resistance. On Tuesday of last week Bitcoin traded near 73,500 momentarily, while the highs are certainly noteworthy, support for the speculative asset has been around 66,000 since the middle of October. There are reasons to suspect Bitcoin will display a large amount of volatility this week, particularly when the new U.S President is known.

6. Forex: As of this writing the USD/JPY is slightly below 152.000, the EUR/USD is around 1.09000, the GBP/USD is near 1.29650. The question is where these currency pairs and other major FX assets will be in three nights. Day traders dreaming of riding momentum via financial institutions need to understand the equilibrium of risk and reward. In other words, the same amount of money you can make, is likely the same amount of money you can lose. Risk management will be a life preserver for many speculators this week.

5. U.S. Data: This past Friday the Non-Farm Employment Change numbers came in wildly below the 106,000 jobs added estimate, the result of only 12,000 hired was rather shocking, but met with almost muted bewilderment. Also, the jobs numbers showed another revision lower from the previous month. Advanced GDP quarterly numbers, on Wednesday the 30th of October, also missed their estimate coming in with a 2.8% gain compared to anticipated growth of 3.0%. The U.S economy is still under stress.

4. Barometers: Risk adverse trading has been widespread the past handful of weeks. While gold has reached new highs and is slightly below the 2,750.00 mark for the moment, one month from now will be a telltale for gold and many assets. Since the end of September a number of narratives have been heard trying to explain the results seen across the board, but the simple answer is caution has entered the markets. U.S equity indices are still flirting with highs, even as they have suffered downturns in recent trading. WTI Crude Oil is near 71.50 USD per barrel. Gold, U.S equities and WTI Crude Oil will react to the outcome of the U.S election and serve as solid behavioral sentiment indicators in one month when compared to current prices.

3. Federal Reserve: If last week’s U.S economic data had been delivered without the fanfare of the U.S election approaching, Fed observers would likely be anticipating a dovish sounding FOMC Statement coming on the 7th of November. Instead, the USD has remained rather strong as risk adverse trading has been demonstrated in the broad markets. The Fed is certainly in a position to cut the Federal Funds Rate by another 0.25 basis points, some could even argue for another 0.50% cut. However, the Fed is likely to cut interest rates by a quarter of a point and sound rather cautious as they too read the landscape in the wake of the U.S voting results. Mid-term outlook from the Fed will be scrutinized this Thursday.

2: Nervousness: Day traders who decide to participate in the broad markets near-term may also enjoy walking outside and looking at approaching storms and dreaming about the fury about to come. Being anxious before and during large risk events when outcomes are unknown is a survival instinct. Speculators need to protect themselves over the next couple of days. Tranquil trading in all major assets may appear, but as tomorrow grows long assets will begin to percolate and by Wednesday almost all financial markets will be boiling. While this is certainly being hailed as the most important week of the year because of the U.S election and the Federal Reserve, it is also a very dangerous time to be trading. Those with limited funds may want to hunker down in a safe place and watch the markets create bedlam over the next 48 hours.

1. U.S Election: The vote is less than one day away when old standards are considered. However, more than 72 million votes have been cast early in the U.S already. That’s more than 45% of the total U.S vote during 2020, when 158,434,567 votes were counted. While the media bangs the drum regarding the incoming results tomorrow, it is important to note that many Americans and global observers are merely waiting for the final results to be announced. The end of the election campaign is nearly upon us, now financial institutions and traders await clarity. Wednesday the 6th of November is going to be an interesting day for the markets.

postR196

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Frights for the 28th of October

by with No Comment BaseballBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Frights for the 28th of October

postR196

10. MLB Concern: Baseball executives are hoping the Yankees can start to make the World Series more competitive this evening. The Los Angeles Dodgers have won the first two games of the championship battle. Significant hopes for a drama filled, seven game World Series would be dampened badly if the Yankees do not win tonight. Television ratings which were expected to be high could suffer appreciably if the Yankees go down three games to none. A non-competitive championship would mean a loss of revenue.

9. Israel and Iran: The Middle East saga is at number nine, and hopefully doesn’t become number one. A dangerous game of poker is being played by the participants. If Iran decides to up the ante once again, it would be a dangerous decision, because it appears Israel has positioned itself via this weekend’s retaliation to be more aggressive if need be.

8. WTI Crude Oil: The ability of the energy to move below 70.00 USD upon this morning’s trading is a sign the Middle East conflict remains tranquil in the minds of large participants in the oil sector. However, if Iran decides to test Israel again directly, Iran may find that its oil infrastructure is vulnerable. As the price hovers below 68.00 USD during this writing, it appears buyers who bought speculative positions the past few weeks might be capitulating.

7. BRICS: The inclusion of 13 additional nations as Partner States to the international organization led by Russia, China and India shows the entity sees itself as a growing alternative geo-political force and trading sphere with real power. The West should be paying attention, but often seems like it is not concerned about the potential strength of BRICS, and instead makes believe the group is a fallacy and much ado about nothing – this is a mistake by the West.

6. North Korea: The potential of North Korean combat troops entering the Ukraine – Russia war is a dangerous notion. However, it opens the door for Ukraine and South Korea to offer surrendering deserters the possibility of being allowed into South Korea, if soldiers can prove they are not spies. Unfortunately, the temptation of desertion by enemy troops could prove to be wishful thinking because North Korean soldiers will have intense supervision at all times; the threat of being shot as a liable traitor is a likely constant menace.

5. Gold: Record values continue to be seen, the price of the precious metal as of this writing is near 2,732.00. Noted as a store of value, gold is also seen as a safe haven by its buyers. Now may be the time to consider behavioral sentiment as a main driver because of anxiousness in the global marketplace. Speculative forces are certainly involved in the move higher too. With so many risk events shadowing, it may be very unwise for day traders to bet against the rise of gold near-term.

4. U.S Data and the Fed: Advance GDP numbers will be published this Wednesday, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index will be seen this Thursday, and on Friday the Non-Farm Employment Change statistics will be presented. Fireworks should be anticipated by day traders. The combination of these reports, the approaching U.S election, and the Federal Reserve’s FOMC Meeting decision on the 7th of November will be enough to make most analysts hearts beat faster.

3. USD/JPY: Japan’s election results today now require a coalition government because the ruling Liberal Democratic Party has lost its majority. The Bank of Japan has a meeting this Thursday and is expected to hold its BoJ Policy Rate in place. The Japanese Yen has returned to values above the 153.000 level as of this writing. While many major currencies have lost value against the USD since the end of September, the USD/JPY needs to be watched as a dynamic combination of risks abound. Political gridlock, inflation, and lackluster economic data in Japan are not ingredients which will provide financial institutions with optimism in the near-term. The historically cautious attitude of the Bank of Japan will be severely tested in the coming weeks.

2. U.S Election: There is a little more than one week to go before the Presidential vote begins. While many folks are focused on the White House, the race for the Senate looks to be a stiff competition too. Republicans are hoping to regain the majority in the Senate and retain their power in the House of Representatives. Financial institutions are apprehensive about the outcomes for Congress, which will have an important role in fiscal and regulatory management. The Democrats appear to be nervous. Noise from the campaign trail and media will become heightened over the next seven days. Top bureaucrats in offices like the SEC, CFTC, FCC and other agencies know their jobs are on the line.

1. Market Volatility: U.S economic data, the coming election, and the Fed means the next week and a half of trading in the global markets are going to be packed with violent firework displays. Day traders who do not have experience should watch from afar, because the coming price action can cause fast losses for those caught on the wrong side. Trading sentiment is fragile, this is evident via the choppy results seen in equities, Forex, many commodities, and rising U.S Treasury yields. Over stating the obvious for the moment about risk management is a public service.

postR190.1

Interest Rate Cuts and Cautious USD Centric Gusts in Forex

by with No Comment AssetsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

Interest Rate Cuts and Cautious USD Centric Gusts in Forex

U.K inflation data this morning came in well below estimates, which almost assures the Bank of England will cut their Official Bank Rate on the 7th of November by at least 0.25 basis points. Tomorrow the European Central Bank will announce its Main Refinancing Rate and it is widely anticipated a 0.25 cut will be made official.

The downturns in the EUR/USD and GBP/USD are easy to see via three month technical charts, but both pairs remain above lows seen over the mid-term. However, the choppy and consistent selling in both currency pairs the past few weeks have likely caused pain for any day trader who has remained stubbornly bullish.

postR190.1
EUR/USD Three Month Chart as of 16th October 2024

Questions surrounding the Federal Reserve remain murky and this is creating USD strength and cautious selling in other currencies. After a rather dovish sounding round of rhetoric from Jerome Powell and a 0.50% basis point decrease in mid-September, financial institutions clearly have become more guarded about the ability of the Fed to remain aggressively dovish. Will the Fed will cut by another 0.25 on the 7th of November and then say they believe they are done being dovish until additional data backs up their stance? Is there a capability the Fed will still cut the Federal Funds Rate by 0.50 over the next handful of month as once envisioned?

postR190.2
GBP/USD Three Month Chart as of 16th October 2024

However, there is a chance the Fed will not cut in November and some analysts have banged their drums regarding this idea. But the Producer Price Index results last Friday did show that inflation remains under control. So I hold to the notion the Fed will cut by another 0.25 in November. Let’s see.

On Thursday the 10th of October the U.S Consumer Price Index statistics were slightly hotter than hoped for and this certainly caused some of the USD centric storms now thrashing financial institutions and day traders. It should also be mentioned that on the 4th of October the Non-Farm Employment Change numbers came in better than expected. But revisions lower in the jobs data the past handful of months needs to be remembered, and, yes, there will be another jobs report on the 1st of November. Which will be followed on the 5th by this little thing known as the U.S Presidential Election. So caution will be a solid instrument for day traders and possibly financial institutions over the next three weeks. The stronger move by the USD since the end of September has caught many folks off guard.

postR190.3
Gold Three Month Chart as of 16 October 2024

Gold is trading near record high levels this morning, but intriguingly WTI Crude Oil has calmed down and is challenging near-term lows. U.S Treasury yields have come down slightly to start this week. The point being that while Forex and gold have seen volatility because of interest rates uncertainty, risk taking actually appears rather solid. Yesterday did see selling in U.S equity indices, but there is no denying U.S stocks remain within sight of ultra-highs. And I might be about to sound contradictory soon, and my own personal bias needs to be carefully given consideration by myself and you the reader. Because while I feel rather comfortable about the higher values in the major U.S indices, I do not feel the same way about Chinese equities currently.

postR190.4
Shanghai Composite Index (SSE) Three Month Chart as of 16th October 2024

The Shanghai Composite Index has traded a little lower again, but this follows a massive swing upwards after Chinese stimulus intervention. But the U.S equity indices and the Chinese markets are not correlated. Perhaps mentioning the Shanghai Composite Index here is wrong, but the stimulus the Chinese government provided may prove to be window dressing on a storefront that suffers from poor economic infrastructure. Day traders in Asia and elsewhere who are betting on upside in Chinese equities need to be very careful, in fact they should be quite suspicious. Economic data from China to start this week has remained lackluster. On Friday GDP, Industrial Production, Retail Sales and New Home Prices data will come from China.

Major currencies which did very well against the USD since July have struggled the past few weeks as clouds have emerged regarding U.S interest rate outlooks. However, at some point day traders and financial institutions may believe the USD has sold off too much during this wave of caution. The JPY, GBP, and EUR have all lost value during this time. As always day traders need to remember they will find it hard to pick the correct time a strong reversal starts to take place. And it should be remembered because of the risk events lined up Forex volatility may rage a while longer. Certainly the outcome of the U.S election will be a factor in the days ahead and may create sideways trading outcomes in many assets until a winner is known.

postR190.5

USD/JPY Three Month Chart as of 16th October 2024

But the global markets will remain open and trade. While shouts of danger should be listened to and given heed, tomorrow’s ECB meeting and outcome will be a good start to the parade. If the ECB plays the expected song and cuts the Main Refinancing Rate by 0.25 this will prove interesting, because financial institutions have already priced in the rate cut in most cases and they will wonder if their outlooks regarding the Fed and BoE are correct. The U.S will release data tomorrow with Retail Sales and weekly Unemployment Claims. On Friday housing sector results will come from the U.S also. These reports will provide USD impetus into the markets as the near-term is considered and wagered upon.