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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Tastings for the 10th of May 2024

by with No Comment AI & Machine LearningAMT MarketsFeatured Highlights

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Tastings for the 10th of May 2024

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10. Word of the day: Ultracrepidarian is a person who speaks assertively about subjects that are beyond their level of knowledge. The world is full of many suspects ladies and gentlemen.

9. Steve Albini: The musician and production sound engineer passed away earlier this week in Chicago. Albini was a pioneer and leader in ‘alternative’ music and battled homogenized corporate music for nearly 40 years. Nirvana, Fugazi, Jimmy Page, the Pixies, P.J Harvey are some of the many that worked with Albini.

8. Bitcoin: BTC/USD continues to hover around the 63,000.00 realm per a three month technical chart perspective. Bitcoin’s higher values via one year results are being maintained. BNB/USD is lurking near 600.00 per a three month glance.

7. Commodities: Cocoa and Coffee prices remain elevated. After touching a low around the 7,250.00 USD mark last week per metric ton, Cocoa is now within sight of 9,000.00 USD again. Retail speculators who like to wager via CFDs on commodities need to remember their bets have no influence on the markets, which are in complete control by the largest players in the commodities sector.

6. Wayve Technologies: A U.K based company specializing in autonomous driving software has announced they have raised more than 1 billion USD in investments recently via the likes of Softbank, Nvidia and Microsoft. The U.K government has highlighted Wayve, proclaiming it shows Britain will be a major force in AI development. Wayve was established in 2017 and is still a privately held company.

5. U.S Foreign Policy: Election concerns appear to be a prime motivator for the U.S executive branch as its attempts to walk a fine line regarding diplomacy and saber-rattling in the Middle East. Polling from a variety of sources indicate Joe Biden is in jeopardy of not being reelected.

4. USD/CNY: China will release its Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index numbers early on Saturday. The USD/CNY is trading around the 7.2245 mark as of this writing. Some analysts have expressed concerns about the China Yuan weakening via attempts by the Chinese government to boost exports. The USD/CNY certainly remains within the higher elements of its range, but is below marks seen in early September 2023 which were around the 7.3425 ratio.

3. Data Warning: While day traders may be inclined to look at the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment reading today, they should remember to pay attention to the Inflation Expectations statistics. Last month’s inflation report produced a result of 3.2%, which delivered a solid dose of volatility to financial assets.

2. Forex: Behavioral sentiment appears to be leaning towards a weaker outlook for the USD as major currencies like the EUR, GBP (solid GDP numbers also helped this morning in Britain) and others have gained. However, its should be pointed out that the USD/JPY has seen an incremental climb since touching a low of nearly 151.880 last Friday. As of this writing the USD/JPY is around the 155.650 level.

1. Equity Indices: Bullish optimism has been seen in the S&P 500, Dow 30 and Nasdaq as all three major indices are ready to start the day near highs for the week. The burst of upwards momentum which started last Thursday, has ignited the major U.S indices within sight of their apex realms achieved in late March and early April.

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Forex: Shifting Winds and Potential Optimism for Speculators

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

Forex: Shifting Winds and Potential Optimism for Speculators

The BoJ intervened in Forex and propelled two fast selloffs of the USD/JPY last week. The actions by the Bank of Japan did not come as a surprise as the central bank seeks to maintain a dovish interest rate policy, a relatively weak Japanese Yen – but also a philosophy of not letting the JPY to suffer too much. Speculators and financial institutions got caught up in the price action which ensued as a clash developed between large traders and the BoJ as equilibrium was sought.

The BoJ clearly wants to keep the USD/JPY within the weaker realms of its long-term values to spur on the Japanese export sector with solid business results. However, domestically the Japanese government doesn’t want inflation within Japan to inflict too much pain for its citizens. BoJ interventions were carried out twice last week, once during a holiday in Japan, and the second when most global financial institutions were shuttered. At the time of this writing the USD/JPY is trading near the 153.720 mark.

Day traders always need to understand just how small they are within the larger speculative world. They need to judge economic intelligence and forecasts to get an understanding where behavioral sentiment could affect tides.

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USD/JPY One Month Chart on 6th of May 2024

In the U.S, inflation and growth data caused investors to react nervously a week and a a half ago, additionally more anxious moments were fueled by the Federal Reserve’s FOMC Statement this past Wednesday when the Fed said it was uncertain about the timetable that inflation would return to their stated goal of two percent. Forex trading has been volatile the entire calendar year of 2024 for speculators.

Nearly ten days ago while inflation continued to prove it was stubborn via the U.S GDP Price Index on the 25th of April, Advance GDP data was much weaker than expected showing that economic growth was slowing. And last Friday’s Non-Farm Employment results were not only weaker regarding hiring, but also showed a slight drop in Average Hourly Earnings. This might have been enough to begin causing a shift in financial institution outlooks. This week of trading will prove interesting regarding risk appetite versus risk averse sentiment, particularly if large players believe economic data is finally catching up to the Fed’s rhetoric.

U.S equity indices which started last week with selling and battled lower depths in the middle of the week, began to see buying develop on Thursday, and finished Friday’s trading within their highs via weekly technical charts. While it is easy to report the past, it is the future speculators want to know. The ability of the U.S jobs numbers to produce results which were seen in a favorable light regarding the Fed’s ability to potentially cut the Federal Funds Rate certainly was an optimistic sign for financial institutions. If inflation can remain under control it would help the global economic picture. On that note, WTI Crude Oil is trading below 80.00 USD and should be monitored.

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S&P 500 Index Three Month Chart on 6th of May 2024.

Monday, 6th of May, European Union Final Services PMI – Italy, France and Germany among other will present Purchasing Managers Index data. The broad numbers are mostly expected to replicate the previous month’s outcomes. Traders should note the U.K is observing a banking holiday today, which means lighter than normal Forex volumes will be seen.

Tuesday, 7th of May, Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Statement – the central bank is not expected to change its interest rate. The AUD/USD has provided some upwards momentum the past week. The RBA is not expected to step out of line regarding global central bank policies. Expect talk about an optimistically cautious outlook by the RBA as they preach patience regarding an interest rate cut.

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AUD/USD One Month Chart on 6th of May 2024

Wednesday, 8th of May, Bond Sales from Japan, the U.K and the U.S – while many European nations observe a holiday, Japan, Great Britain and the U.S will sell government debt. U.S Treasury yields should be watched and equity indices should have an eye kept on them. If behavioral sentiment remains optimistic as this day comes to a close it could set the table for more bullishness, particularly if the USD remains relatively tame or weaker.

Thursday, 9th of May, Bank of England Monetary Policy Summary – the BoE is likely to mirror other central banks and keep its interest rate policy in place. No changes are expected to the Official Bank Rate. However, it would not be surprising to hear the BoE try to pose upbeat expectations, and if this occurs perhaps the GBP/USD will continue to find some momentum upwards.

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GBP/USD One Month Chart on 6th of May 2024

Thursday, 9th of May, U.S Weekly Unemployment Claims – investors will keep their eyes on the jobs report. If the numbers come in around expectations this would allow risk appetite to remain strong in the near-term.

Friday, 10th of May, U.K Gross Domestic Product – an expected gain of 0.1% is forecast. GBP/USD traders who have bullish sentiment will be looking for the number to match expectations or beat the anticipated result. If the number is weaker, this could cause a reversal lower in the GBP/USD and an attempt to push back against gains made in the currency pair recently.

Friday, 10th of May, U.S Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations via the University of Michigan – these readings will be watched by investors to see if consumers continue to show decreasing confidence in the U.S economy. While it sounds counter intuitive to want eroding sentiment regarding the ability to spend money, this would create more ammunition for the Federal Reserve to consider an interest rate cut. The Inflation Expectations could be the catalyst for traders going into the weekend regarding the USD.

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Observations for 3rd of May 2024

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Observations for 3rd of May 2024

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10. Formula One: The Miami Grand Prix race will be held on Sunday. Whispers have been heard that Red Bull driver Max Verstappen has been approached by Mercedes bidding an annual contract over 150 million USD, but that he has not accepted the offer. However, Adrian Newey, engineer and CTO of Red Bull Racing, has confirmed he is leaving the team after 19 years of leadership. F1 certainly needs more competitive racing, a shake up at Red Bull could deliver this for the sport.

9. De-movements: Desire for decolonization, decarbonization, depopulation, turned into delusion and dehydration for Columbia University protestors and the need for a glass of water per the request of a student leader. Perhaps de-escalation is next.

8. Geopolitics: The nation of Georgia is dealing with demonstrations as some citizens show disdain regarding feared political influence from Russia. Georgia has an approximate population of 3.7 million. The East European and West Asian country has seen civil disobedience on the streets of Tbilisi increase this week.

7. Lower Values: Cocoa is near 7,658.00 USD per metric ton as of this morning, on the 19th of April it traded above 12,000.00 briefly. BTC/USD is around 59,250 after having faced headwinds this week.

6. Gold: The precious metal has sold off this week and is hovering near 2,300.00 per ounce as concerns build about USD outlook remaining strong over the mid-term. A low of nearly 2,282.00 was seen on Wednesday. Today’s publication of U.S economic data will push the price of Gold around.

5. Mixed Trading: Equity indices have produced uneven results this week as investors try to find equilibrium. Optimism almost always is the eventual emotion long-term institutional market participants lean towards. The S&P 500, Dow 30, and Nasdaq Composite all gained yesterday, but remain below highs from earlier in the week. Behavioral sentiment appears fragile and many Fed observers are disgruntled.

4. Uncertainty: The Federal Reserve has admitted it is unsure about future economic progress this calendar year. When questioned about the potential of stagflation Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said he see no signs of this – while forgetting to add that politically saying such a thing would likely cost him his job. And lets remember, the Fed claimed they thought inflation was transitory in July of 2021.

3. Bank of Japan: A battle is underway with the USD/JPY as the BoJ has staged two interventions this week. Intent on trying to create economic growth via stronger exports, while allowing import inflation to be seen, the BoJ interest rate policy remains dovish. The USD/JPY is near 153.230 now, but it is unlikely to go into the weekend with this price. An apex on the 29th of April approached the 159.610 ratio. Financial institutions and Japanese Yen traders must remain alert.

2. High Anxiety: Day traders in Forex, equity indices and commodities have certainly seen heightened volatility and the choppiness is going to persist. Retail brokers will welcome speculators with open arms and point to opportunities, but traders need to understand the ‘casino’ often is making money via losses incurred because of leveraged wagers which turn into losing bets when price velocity hits.

1. Jobs Data: Yet another opportunity for inflation to be seen today via the Average Hourly Earnings numbers. A cautionary road sign was seen this Tuesday when the U.S Employment Cost Index came in with a stronger than anticipated quarterly gain of 1.2%. The USD will remain a lynchpin in many financial assets, and Treasury yields should be watched after the employment statistics have been printed.

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BoJ and Fed are today’s Forex Bogeymen, and Job Numbers Lurk

by with No Comment Behavioral SentimentCentral BanksFeatured Highlights

BoJ and Fed are today's Forex Bogeymen, and Job Numbers Lurk

While the Showa holiday is being observed in Japan, the BoJ has apparently reacted with an intervention after seeing the USD/JPY race to new highs in the wake of the central bank’s decision to hold its Policy Rate at 0.10% on Friday. If in fact the Bank of Japan has acted when most Japanese financial institutions are celebrating a long holiday weekend, the reaction to the intervention will be noteworthy when Japanese currency traders return to their desks tomorrow. The question obviously becomes whether large players in the JPY will continue to wager against the Bank of Japan’s current monetary policy or if the apparent intervention will make them cautious.

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USD/JPY One Day Chart as of 29th April 2024

U.S data this past Thursday turned in rather clumsy statistics starting with the Advance Gross Domestic Product growth results which showed the American economy is slowing. However, the GDP Price Index came in slightly higher than anticipated. This caused some tremors in Forex. Friday was followed by additionally troublesome readings when the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment outcome was weaker than expected, but the U of M Inflation Expectations gauge was higher than the previous month’s report.

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USD Cash Index Five Day Chart as of 29th April 2024

The USD began to show signs of weakness in many major currency pairs last week. Perhaps the expectation that the worst of Federal Reserve outlook has now been absorbed is playing into the Forex results. However, the past four months of trading have produced a continuous choppy wagering landscape for speculators and clarity still does not exist.

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Gold One Month Chart as of 29th April 2024

Suspicion of the Bank of Japan’s intervention this morning and the creeping shadow from the U.S Federal Reserve which is scheduled to deliver their FOMC Statement this Wednesday have created trading bogeymen in many financial assets. The strains in the major equity indices, Treasuries and Forex are prime examples. While day traders try to find fair market value technically and financial institutions seek equilibrium, most observers likely have nervous behavioral sentiment as they consider mid-term prospects. The past month of speculative trading in Gold has produced record highs, but ran into resistance the past week as questions arise about USD inverse correlations not being technically efficient recently.

Monday, 29th April, Germany – Consumer Price Index – the inflation results from Germany should be given attention. The number will certainly affect sentiment surrounding the ECB and the EUR/USD, however the report should not cause an earthquake.

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USD/CNY One Month Chart as of 29th April 2024

Tuesday, 30th April, China Manufacturing PMI – the nation has been making claims via government officials the economy is showing signs of a rebound. Yet, disturbing consumer data continues to be seen. The manufacturing statistics from China though will also reflect demand in what is generally accepted as a recessionary period for many global spheres. Traders of the USD/CNY should pay attention to the outcome, the currency pair has incrementally climbed and there are rampant whispers about China undertaking a policy to weaken the Chinese Yuan to spur economic growth.

Wednesday, 1st May, U.S Federal Reserve Funds Rate and FOMC Statement – the Fed will not change its interest rate this week. What will be noteworthy is how Fed Chairman Powell presents this month’s FOMC Statement rhetorically as he is asked questions during his Press Conference. We are certain to hear words mentioned like ‘lagging data and positive signs regarding the potential of weakening inflation’. The question financial institutions want to know is how long will they have to wait for a change to the Federal Funds Rate. The Fed is likely to try sounding cautiously optimistic, but will it be believed? Forex will react to the Fed’s policy meeting pronouncements, but no major surprises should be expected. Some observers may find interesting evidence regarding the future for Fed’s policy via the price of WTI Crude Oil which is hovering near 83.00 USD per barrel as of this writing, because stable energy prices are a key factor regarding inflation.

Thursday, 2nd May, U.S Weekly Unemployment Claims – the jobs data which will start to be delivered late this week will get attention. Forex traders however will be swimming within the riptides already created by the Federal Reserve’s policy.

Friday, 3rd May, U.S Non-Farm Employment Change Numbers and Average Hourly Earnings – these reports will cause a reaction. What financial institutions will be on the hunt for is weaker than anticipated hiring. The inflation numbers from the wages report will be a factor too. The USD traded with a slight decline in Forex last week, those who believe the greenback has been too strong and are inclined to remain sellers should pay attention to the U.S jobs numbers. If the headline hiring number is stronger than anticipated, analysts will rush to the back pages of the statistics to see if part-time hiring is still outpacing full-time employment.

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Picks for the 26th of April 2024

by with No Comment Behavioral SentimentCentral BanksEquities

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Picks for the 26th of April 2024

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10. Salk Institute: Work known as the Harnessing Plants Initiative is focused on optimizing the ability of plants to help combat climate change, sometimes via root systems in order to help reduce carbon dioxide. Problematically when plants die they do release carbon dioxide too. One key to the HPI project maybe altering the affects of Suberin. The Salk Institute received 50 million USD last year from the Hess Corporation to fight climate change.

9. Anticipation: Chicago is celebrating today after landing quarterback Caleb Williams and wide receiver Rome Odunze as hoped. However, as the August 2024 Democratic National Convention approaches, trepidation for the potential of nasty demonstrations is building.

8. Quantum Investing: Oak Ridge National Laboratory has announced a successful test using the H1-1 computer via Quantinuum to study the spread of disease via quantum mathematical models. Honeywell International Inc. owns a large stake in Quantinuum which is a stand alone company valued at approximately 5 billion USD.

7. Speculative: Gold is near 2348.00, the price is below values seen last week, but remains high via some perspectives as the USD creates havoc.

6. Forex: Whipsaw volatility has been seen in foreign exchange as financial institutions fight to get a proper gauge on their mid-term outlooks. Equilibrium will continue to be fought over today.

5. Fixed Income: U.S Treasury yields are battling within higher ground as investors look for guaranteed returns as behavioral sentiment remains fragile. And there is a likelihood the next four days of trading will continue to produce a whirlwind.

4. Equities: Major U.S indices continue to grapple with headwinds caused by a murky economic outlook. Retail traders speculating via CFD’s should remain careful. Patience is a key for the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Dow 30. Trying to ‘time’ the indices for short-term wagers is dangerous because technical trends are vulnerable.

3. Data: U.S Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index statistics will be released today, inflation via the GDP Price Index came in higher than expected yesterday. Forex will react to the PCE results which is anticipated to have a gain of 0.3%. Financial institutions do not need another scare today. The Revised University of Michigan Inflation Expectations reading should also be given attention which will be published afterwards.

2. BoJ: The Bank of Japan is clearly playing a game of truth or dare with Forex. Having held interest rates at merely 0.10% earlier today, the USD/JPY climbed comfortably above 156.000 and is presently near the 156.540. The BoJ will remain in the news as the USD/JPY trades around a 34 year high. As financial institutions clamor for a higher interest rate, the BoJ apparently is more concerned with creating dynamic export demand and growing Japan’s economy, believing it can keep inflation under control. Speculators need to be on alert for an intervention from the Bank of Japan, but cannot count on one either.

1. Analysis Paralysis: The Federal Reserve was served an intriguing dose of results via the lower than expected growth numbers from the Gross Domestic Product yesterday, while digesting a higher GDP Price Index. Jerome Powell has stressed caution and patience. However, yesterday’s stubborn inflation numbers with waning growth creates the prospect for stagflation. This is an important political year because of the upcoming U.S elections in November. Next Wednesday the Fed’s FOMC Meeting pronouncements will be made. There will not be a change to the Federal Funds Rate on the 1st of May. It is the FOMC Statement’s vocabulary which will get attention. Today’s inflation reports will play a role in next week’s Fed meeting. Day traders may want to tune out political noise from pundits today which will certainly be sounded. The inflation numbers globally are tricky, and have created overthinking by investors and central banks which remain mostly reactive.

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Impact: Powell’s White Flag, Inflation Data, and the BoJ

by with No Comment AMT MarketsAssetsFeatured Highlights

Impact: Powell's White Flag, Inflation Data, and the BoJ

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s waving of the ‘white flag’ last Tuesday, when he admitted that inflation was producing stronger than anticipated data had been essentially wagered on since the second week of March by financial institutions. Powell’s speech acknowledging the Fed will find it difficult to cut the Federal Funds Rate in the mid-term (and probably at best not until late this summer) simply verified Forex positions which had already been taken by large players who could afford to make mid-term wagers.

The USD Index has returned to early November 2023 values, and appears able to challenge late September and October prices if inflation data this week causes more volatility, which should put traders of major currencies like the GBP, EUR, JPY and others on full alert. After the USD spiked higher from the 10th to the 12th of April, Forex speculators have seen dynamic action incrementally flirting with stronger USD results the past week and a half.

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USD Cash Index Six Month Chart as of 21st April 2024

Nervous trading continues to be seen in U.S equity indices. The Dow 30 and the Nasdaq 100 are fighting near ratios they touched in the last week of January. And the S&P 500 is traversing ground from the first week of February.

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S&P 500 Three Month Chart as of 21st April 2024

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Gold Six Month Chart as of 21st April 2024

Gold remains speculatively high as its hovers near 2,400.00 USD per ounce. The price of the precious metal has not given back its gains made since the start of March and this is intriguing because of the ‘known’ USD inverse correlation, which had proven to work well with the precious metal over the past couple of years but has been stopped in its tracks for the moment. Technically Gold may look overbought, but geopolitical concerns and the prospect that some central banks may be strong buyers could be fueling the rather incremental gains. Retail traders of Gold need to be careful because price action is likely to produce more surprises.

Forex has been turbulent the past handful of months as shifting behavioral sentiment has created choppy conditions. This coming week contains large fundamental risk events via data releases traders should monitor. USD/JPY speculators will also have to contend with the Bank of Japan.

Monday, 22nd of April, China Loan Prime Rates – borrowing costs are anticipated to remain at the current benchmarks. China produced slightly better Gross Domestic Product results last week, but Industrial Production numbers were weaker. Consumers in China remain burdened by decreasing home values and concerns about the economy.

Tuesday, 23rd of April, European Union and U.K Manufacturing and Services PMI – E.U results via the PMI readings are expected to show slight improvements. However the readings from the United Kingdom are anticipated to come in flat. The EUR/USD and GBP/USD will be affected by the results, but the currency pairs will likely remain focused on U.S data later in the day.

Tuesday, 23rd of April, U.S Purchasing Managers Index – the Manufacturing and Services sectors are expected to produce slightly better readings than the previous month. These results will be interesting taking into consideration the Empire State Manufacturing Index numbers last week were bad. The PMI statistics will provide some impetus to the broad Forex market.

Wednesday, 24th of April, Australia Consumer Price Index – inflation data is anticipated to be higher than the previous month’s results. While stronger inflation is not something that will make consumers happy in Australia, stubborn price results may keep the AUD/USD slightly steadier. The currency pair is traversing values last seen in the second week of November 2023 as of this writing.

Thursday, 25th of April, U.S Advance Gross Domestic Product and Price Index – these numbers are certain to have an impact on all financial assets. A decline in growth is anticipated in the U.S compared to the previous month’s result, but the Price Index is expected to show an increase. Jerome Powell having come out last week and said inflation is causing uncertainty within the Federal Reserve, may have a bit of inside knowledge regarding this GDP inflation number and ‘tipped his hand’. If this inflation gauge is higher than anticipated it could pour fuel onto the already volatile USD. All Forex traders need to pay attention to these results and be prepared with solid risk management.

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USD/JPY One Year Chart as of 21st April 2024

Friday, 26th of April, Bank of Japan – in what has already proven to be a couple of weeks filled with drama for the USD/JPY, the BoJ will step into the limelight. During their last central bank meeting the Bank of Japan increased the Policy Rate to 0.10%. It was the first time the BoJ hiked interest rates in 17 years. The USD/JPY is trading at values last seen in June of 1990. The Nikkei 225 has come off of recent record heights, but the famed Japanese stock index is also trading within territory seen in January of 1990. Business activity via the Core Machine Orders and the Tertiary Industry data last week were stronger than anticipated.

The Bank of Japan may want to maintain a weaker USD/JPY equilibrium to continue fostering domestic growth. However, many financial analysts have been calling on the BoJ to become more hawkish regarding monetary policy. The interest rate decision is certain to cause immediate volatility before and after the Policy Rate is made public. USD/JPY traders need to be prepared for fireworks. A slight raise of the interest rate seems to be needed, but after the March hike the BoJ may prove conservative again. The 34 year lows now being seen in the Japanese Yen are astonishing.

Friday, 26th of April, U.S Core PCE Price Index, and Inflation Expectations – the data from the government, and the reading from the University of Michigan will close the curtain on a big week of economic statistics for all traders. The USD will react to these outcomes. It should be noted the previous Inflation Expectations data from the University of Michigan caused a storm in Forex when it came with 3.1% gain.

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Forex: Behind the Curtain as Speculative Deja Vu Strikes

by with No Comment AMT MarketsCentral BanksFeatured Highlights

Forex: Behind the Curtain as Speculative Deja Vu Strikes

Friday jobs reports came in stronger than anticipated on the surface, and this led to a roller coaster like ride for Forex traders as results were acted upon by financial institutions. However, a look behind the data shows ‘positive’ results were spurred on by part-time hiring and government influences leading to a notion that jobs numbers were not exactly a ray of sunshine regarding U.S economic health. The suspicious results cause a desire to look for ulterior motives, and to wonder if election year politics are playing a role in the U.S employment picture.

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GBP/USD Six Month Chart as of 9th April 2024

The GBP/USD and EUR/USD are rather insightful for technical and fundamental traders. The currency pairs are languishing as of today’s values near pricing that was seen in the second week of December. Since the ‘announcement’ from the U.S Federal Reserve on the 13th of December that a change in monetary policy would begin to occur in 2024, in actuality nothing has really happened, except government ‘speak’ trying to sound as if everything is understood and in control, while it is clearly not.

Economic data from the U.S and Europe has continued to be soiled by mixed results, and retail speculators looking for a trend to emerge have had to deal with choppy conditions. Financial institutions remain unclear about interest rate outlooks. The Fed while trying to ‘sound’ dovish rhetoric remains locked within a Google engine keyword mantra as they mutter the phrase ‘over time’ when trying to convince people that interest rates will ‘eventually’ be cut.

Last week leading up to the Non-Farm Employment Change numbers, many FOMC members were offering cautious tones about the Federal Funds Rate and warning it should not be changed yet. The implication of the Fed’s verbiage could lead some to suspect they have all practiced statements handed to them by their overlords who are concerned this is an election year and jobs are in jeopardy.

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EUR/USD Six Month Chart as of 9th April 2024

Which leads us back to Forex and all financial assets, as investors try to swim waters which have left fundamental perspectives grasping at data which is not easy to decipher. U.S government policy is practicing fiscal spending that is causing massive debts, and perhaps influencing hiring data which may be more akin to putting lipstick on a pig. Many U.S voters seemingly lean towards electing officials who promise to hand out the biggest ‘social rewards’, while ignoring there will be a price to be paid down the road.

The Federal Reserve in the meantime tries to sound optimistic about inflation eroding, but concerns due to U.S government debt being accrued, and global geopolitical affairs combined with energy policy which is making it more expensive to maintain cheap transportation, efficient agriculture and manufacturing, shadow the Fed’s hopes. WTI Crude Oil remains over 86.00 USD per barrel. Gold is trading at record high values and above 2300.00 USD. Does anyone see the dangerous connections? Equity indices should be watched as a barometer this week.

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USD/JPY Six Month Chart as of 9th April 2024

Monday, 8th of April, Japan Average Cash Earnings and Economic Watchers Sentiment – yesterday’s reports matched expectations regarding wages, but workers surveyed noted their concerns about incremental inflation which is being seen in Japan. The USD/JPY is challenging November higher values and the Bank of Japan has been widely criticized for not raising interest rates more aggressively. However, it is possible the BoJ wants the Japanese Yen to remain within its weaker price range to spark a stronger Japanese economy via exports.

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AUD/USD Six Month Chart as of 9th April 2024

Tuesday, 9th of April, Australia Westpac Consumer Sentiment – the results via the consumer reading came in negative. The AUD/USD like the GBP/USD and EUR/USD is traversing values tested in the second week of December 2023, leading to the feeling of deja vu.

Wednesday, 10th of April, U.S Consumer Price Index – you have heard this before, the inflation reports from the States are going to rattle the financial markets including Forex. The USD is certain to react. Data from the U.S has produced surprises aplenty in the past few months. The Consumer Price Index is important and day traders certainly need to pay attention.

Thursday, 11th of April, European Central Bank – the ECB is not expected to change its Main Refinancing Rate, but many analysts believe they should cut borrowing costs. However, the ECB will likely remain within the camp of choosing to ‘wait and see’. The ECB Press Conference with Christine Legarde has widely become regarded as an opportunity for political speech as much as an economic dialogue. Recent data from the European Union suggests the worst of the recessionary cycle is gone, but German Trade Balance numbers released on Monday were negative, highlighting hurdles remain. Inflation is a worry, and a cut to the interest rate might be able to help spur on economic activity while counting on lagging data to prove proactive policy should be implemented. But this likely is not going to happen and the EUR/USD will remain problematic.

Thursday, 11th of April, U.S Producer Price Index – these slew of reports should be watched carefully. If the data is stronger than expected it is likely a part of the residue caused by higher energy costs that have affected logistics and created more expensive raw materials which are needed to produce goods. It was the higher PPI reports last month that caused dramatic tidal shifts in Forex, speculators should brace for the potential of additional mayhem.

Friday, 12th of April, U.K Gross Domestic Product – last month’s GDP numbers from Great Britain came in slightly higher than expected with a 0.2% gain, this report is anticipating growth of only 0.1%. Traders should take a deeper look at the statistics upon publication and check for revisions to past months. The U.K economy has been struggling, the ‘growth’ results will affect the GBP/USD before going into the weekend.

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Postings for the 5th of April 2024

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Postings for the 5th of April 2024

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10. Petrichor: The pleasant smell after a rain has fallen following a long dry spell which elicits earth’s fragrance. The Fed is likely hoping for this sensation via ‘weaker’ Non-Farm Employment Change numbers today. In December the Federal Reserve spoke about data signals needed in order to cut interest rates. If jobs statistics are stronger than anticipated, there will be no ‘petrichor’ for the Fed.

9. Underreported: Five engineers from China on their way to work for the Dasu dam project they participated, were killed in a ‘suicide’ terrorist attack in Pakistan on the 26th of March. Terror attacks in Pakistan on Chinese involved with infrastructure ‘Economic Corridor’ work have been increasing.

8. Qubits: Microsoft and Quantinuum recently announced they have made breakthroughs regarding quantum computing research reliability. Results have shown 14,000 ‘test routines’ without errors. The emergence of quantum technology approaches.

7. Intrinsic Value: Cocoa is near 9640.0 USD per metric ton as of this morning and remains speculatively energetic. Bitcoin is slightly below 67,000 USD and continues to ‘beat’ the notion that intrinsic value is important.

6. Precious: Gold prices have ‘fallen’ below 2300.00 USD per ounce, and is near 2289.00 for the moment, but the metal is shining as crowds admire its ability to create a safe haven.

5. WTI Crude Oil: Middle East news is rumbling and hyperbole is resonating, the price of the commodity is over 86.40 USD per this writing. A calm weekend, and peaceful end to Ramadan this coming Tuesday might help calm nerves. Higher oil prices will not help global inflation.

4. Forex: The USD/JPY has started to experience waves of volatility and has recently challenged long-term highs. Bottom line is the notion that large players are positioning for today’s U.S data which will affect all financial assets as USD centric power resounds.

3. Equities: The U.S major stock indices are beginning their day near lows not seen since the 15th of March for the Dow 30, and the 19th of March for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite. Nervous?

2. Bonds Watch: U.S Treasuries need to be monitored as the 5, 7, and 10-Years Notes respond to nervous investors and fears of a new ‘inversion’. Having come off of high yields a couple of days ago, doesn’t mean all is well as values languish near late September 2023 technical realms.

1. Data: Recent chatter from many Fed FOMC members have created anxious investors. Vivid reactions will occur after the Non-Farm Employment Change and Average Hourly Earnings. Bluntly, today’s jobs reports are crucial and the Fed would like the results to be weaker than anticipated in order to consider cutting interest rates. However, if hiring comes in stronger, it would be a sign of a resilient U.S economy and would ignite more USD strength. The first half hour following the jobs numbers may look counter-intuitive regarding price action as financial institutions adjust their trading positions.

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Forex Volatility and Coming Data Attractions for this Week

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

Forex Volatility and Coming Data Attractions for this Week

Nervous trading results have hurt many day traders and likely financial institutions too, as behavioral sentiment in Forex gets blindsided by rather mixed U.S data and the Federal Reserve not giving a definitive answer regarding monetary policy. The violent trading in the USD last week was expected, but the turbulence that many Forex pairs experienced on Thursday and Friday of last week was rather vicious. For all the perceived sophistication of Forex markets via financial institutions, the trading results last week point to a definite fear of the unknown.

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USD/JPY Five Day Chart as of 25th March 2024

While the Bank of Japan finally changed its interest rate policy and moved to a Policy Rate of 0.10% early last week, this did not create selling momentum in the USD/JPY. The Federal Reserve’s dangling of potential interest rates to come this year caused temporary weakness in the USD, but as financial institutions and their clients looked at the prospects for a more dovish Fed they apparently became unimpressed as the days passed.

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WTI Crude Oil Six Month Chart as of 25th March 2024

The Fed seems to be betting on weaker jobs numbers developing, and there has been data which points to part-time jobs increasing, and full-time jobs becoming harder to find in the States. Jerome Powell said last week that if jobs numbers start to show weakness that the Fed would be willing to begin cutting interest rates even if inflation remains sticky. Lagging economic data correlations have not eased the Fed’s problems.

The Fed has also admitted inflation in housing, transportation and food remains problematic. WTI Crude Oil spent much of last week above 80.00 USD per barrel as its price has begun to show signs of rising incrementally again; and there is little the Fed can do about more expensive energy costs should they be seen. Higher costs for logistics will not make anything cheaper. Pricier mortgages, more expensive rent and insurance rates for cars and gasoline is creating serious knock on effects.

And for the sake of acknowledging the screaming prices in Cocoa, please have a look at the chart below which should explain why your chocolate products are going to be more expensive in the coming months. The price of the most delicious commodity in the world has tripled in less than a year’s time and is around 8931.0 USD per metric ton as of this writing.

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Cocoa One Year Chart as of 25th March 2024

Gold turned in a violent week of trading too as it reached 2224.00 last Wednesday, only to fall back to a known value around 2165.00. Day traders are dealing with violent cycles in Forex because sustained trends have been nearly impossible to find. While U.S equity indices are fighting upwards, speculators who are afraid of heights are likely being cautious if they are betting merely on the daily results from the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and Dow Jones 30 instead of investing for the long-term.

This week’s coming data from the U.S is important, financial institutions are already dealing with plenty of noise, and they will have to be careful regarding their interpretations regarding the coming economic statistics. Meaning day traders who are speculating in all financial assets should use risk taking tactics that are planned significantly in advance.

Monday, 25th of March, U.S New Home Sales – a slight gain is expected, but mortgage rates continue to shadow the housing sector and cause concerns.

Tuesday, 26th of March, U.S Consumer Confidence via the Conference Board – the reading is anticipating a slight increase. Consumer numbers from the U.S have come in mixed recently. A stronger result than estimated might not be welcomed by traders with bearish sentiment regarding the USD. The Fed wants its cake and to eat it too, they would like to see weaker consumer numbers and a soft economic downturn. If U.S shoppers remain confident this could help sustain inflation. It should be noted too, that Core Durable Goods Orders data will be released one and a half hours before the Consumer Confidence numbers.

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AUD/USD Six Month Chart as of 25th March 2024.

Wednesday, 27th of March, Australia Consumer Price Index – inflation numbers are expected to come in slightly higher than the previous results. Like most other central banks, except for the BoJ, the Reserve Bank of Australia would enjoy seeing inflation erode. The AUD/USD will react to the results certainly, but the price action might prove complicated because of USD centric notions.

Thursday, 28th of March, U.S GDP, Weekly Unemployment Claims, Pending Home Sales, and Revised Consumer Sentiment from the University of Michigan – put bluntly day traders will have to be well prepared for the combination of data from the States. Spectators who do not have large trading accounts and cannot take on a great amount of risk, should seriously consider sitting on the sidelines until most of the data is published. The GDP numbers will be watched carefully, while they are expected to match last month’s total, any surprises will affect the USD immediately in Forex. Weaker growth numbers might cause USD sellers to ignite positions.

However, before traders react too much to the Gross Domestic Product numbers, the Weekly Unemployment data will also impact the financial market. Financial institutions are anticipating a higher amount of unemployment claims this week. Also, at the same time as the growth and jobs numbers, the Final GDP Price Index numbers will be brought forth. The mixture from these reports could cause speculative whiplash.

The housing sector numbers and consumer numbers which come one and a half hours later will finish off a very big day for traders and institutional investors. The wide array of data could make this coming Thursday rather loud, and again rather dangerous for retail traders to participate.

Friday, 29th of March, Japan’s Tokyo Core Consumer Price Index – the inflation numbers are expecting to show a slight decrease to 2.4%. The result should certainly be watched by USD/JPY and GBP/JPY traders. If the number were to come in higher than expected, this could cause additional volatility for the Japanese Yen. Financial institutions seemed to indicate last week they would like to see the BoJ become more aggressive with their Policy Rate.

Friday, 29th of March, U.S Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index – the reading is expected to be below the previous month’s total. Traders should be on the lookout for revisions to past results. Financial institutions know this inflation number is important for the Federal Reserve, but they are concerned the U.S central bank doesn’t have the ability to combat inflation which is not part of the Core number. Energy and food costs which are hurting U.S consumers are not part of this report and likely making the Federal Reserve gun shy regarding monetary policy – which has caused a large part of the USD whipsaw trading results that Forex has experienced.

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Entries for the 22nd of March 2024

by with No Comment AMT MarketsArtificial IntelligenceFeatured Highlights

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Entries for the 22nd of March 2024

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10: Jefferson: Jon Meacham’s Thomas Jefferson The Art of Power provides well written historical and psychological insights concerning one of the U.S Founding Fathers.

9. Shohei Ohtani: Major League Baseball has a gambling scandal. Claims that Ohtani’s interpreter ‘stole’ over 4 million USD from the player to pay off gambling debts beg for questions.

8. Saudi Arabia: The nation has announced it plans on investing 40 billion USD into Artificial Intelligence sector companies via its Public Investment Fund (sovereign wealth fund) and potential business partners.

7. Steve Jobs: Apple’s innovation and tech leadership appears to be weakening as the absence of its deceased leader fades into memory, and competitors grow.

6. Bank of Japan: Monetary policy was finally shifted on Tuesday, an interest rate of 0.10% was instituted, today’s National Core CPI data came in at 2.8%. USD/JPY is currently around 151.400 suggesting financial institutions believe the BoJ Policy Rate may have to be raised again.

5. Gold & Forex: The precious metal challenged 2223.00 USD on Wednesday after the Fed’s FOMC rhetoric but is trading near 2165.00 as of this morning, this as the USD has gotten stronger again producing FX volatility.

4. Hot Chocolate: Cocoa finished yesterday at 8477.0 USD per metric ton, the commodity cost 2880.0 USD one year ago. What and who are manipulating the market?

3. China: Official Foreign Direct Investment statistics are supposed to be released soon. China argues that the fall of foreign investment capital is being reported with bias and not taking into consideration the impact of coronavirus, global monetary policy changes, and cyclical investment fluctuations. However, the FDI numbers remain troublesome and should be watched.

2. Risk Appetite: Major U.S equity indices including the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Dow Jones 30 are challenging record highs as behavioral sentiment remains exuberant, along with Japan’s Nikkei 225.

1. Interest Rates: The Federal Reserve has hinted three interest rate cuts ‘could’ happen this year, this while inflation in housing, transportation and food remain significant for U.S consumers. The Fed seems to be indicating it believes U.S jobs data will get worse. Political shadows hover over the central bank as the presidential election draws closer. The Fed only has 6 FOMC meetings left and appears to be playing with fire.

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Inflation Encore: Forex Traders Gathering Important Evidence

by with No Comment Central BanksEconomic CalendarFeatured Highlights

Inflation Encore: Forex Traders Gathering Important Evidence

The USD has been weaker against many major currencies the past week and inflation numbers coming from the U.S will test short-term outlooks. It should be remembered that in February before the CPI numbers were published, some who were leaning towards a weaker USD were traumatized after the stronger than anticipated results. However recent U.S economic data has shown a rather polite and distinct downturn.

Day traders should brace for drama today and understand that financial institutions will lead the way, either catapulting trends or stopping them in their tracks. As Forex speculators get set, Gold continues to also flirt with highs, as of this writing the precious metal is near 2175.00 USD. Financial assets from equity indices to digital assets (yes, Bitcoin) are experiencing frothy returns as values seemingly attract more capital inflows. In other words, bullish behavioral sentiment is rather strong and traders are reminded to stay realistic with their goals.

Again, there is a difference between quick hitting speculators trying to take advantage of robust trends compared to long-term investing. Day traders still need to do their homework and not bet blindly.

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Gold Five Year Chart as of 12th March 2024.

Monday, 11th of March, Japan GDP – Gross Domestic Product numbers yesterday came in with unexpected weaker results showing a gain of only 0.1% compared to an anticipated 0.3% gain. Yes, the USD/JPY held onto it downwards momentum, which it has established since last week. The trading results in the currency pair suggest financial institutions are placing their faith in mid-term outlooks.

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USD/JPY One Month Chart as of 12th March 2024

Tuesday, 12th of March, U.S Consumer Price Index – the inflation reports will headline and drive market conditions near-term. Last month’s numbers provoked a strong reaction when prices remained stubborn. The monthly core report is expected to show a slight decline today, but the monthly broad number is actually anticipated to rise slightly. With mixed statistics forecast already, day traders need to be prepared for a lot of noise – which may prove rather misguided. The problem for the markets today will come from the interpretation of the numbers, if the CPI figures can simply come close to their expectations this might keep conditions from getting wild, but choppy trading should certainly be counted upon leading up to and following the publication. This month’s encore of the CPI inflation numbers will hopefully be less dramatic than February’s performance.

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GBP/USD One Month Chart as of 12th March 2024

Wednesday, 13th of March, U.K Gross Domestic Product – a gain of 0.2% is expected via the growth number. Last month’s minus -0.1% outcome should serve as a reminder tough economic conditions remain evident. Yet, last month’s number actually beat a worse expectation. GBP/USD traders who have been patient with their bullish stances have been rewarded recently. A slight gain in the GDP number from the U.K could help bolster additional confidence regarding mid-term outlooks for the GBP/USD. The BoE, like the U.S Federal Reserve, will make their monetary policy pronouncements next week.

Thursday, 14th of March, U.S PPI and Retail Sales – the Producer Price Index and consumer spending numbers may produce the surprise for the week regarding market reactions. The Core PPI results are expected to be weaker, while Retail Spending is anticipated to grow. If the inflation results via the PPI data is weaker than anticipated this could allow for further weakness in the USD to develop.

Friday, 15th of March, China New Home Sales – real estate values in the nation remain a focal point for analysis. Another large decline in prices for homes would not be good news. The economy of China is suffering from deflation which hasn’t shown evidence of diminishing soon. China remains a vital part of the global economy. Industrial Production numbers will come from the nation on Monday.

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Forex: Powell, ECB and U.S Jobs Numbers as Gold and Oil Run

by with No Comment Behavioral SentimentCommoditiesFeatured Highlights

Forex: Powell, ECB and U.S Jobs Numbers as Gold and Oil Run

Day traders and investors received a dose of optimistic ‘news’ last week as U.S economic data came in weaker than expected. While Forex certainly proved choppy as anticipated, the USD has shown signs of stability and perhaps has created a durable resistance level up above regarding its potential value looking into the mid-term.

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Gold Six Month Chart as of 5th March 2024

A potential telltale sign regarding the USD in Forex is the current price of Gold which is testing highs and as of this writing is near 2115.00 USD. While below the speculative heights of early December, the precious metal is above prices seen in late December when the USD was being sold heavily. The value of Gold is a rather solid barometer regarding outlook for behavioral sentiment in Forex. A weaker USD translates into a higher Gold price in many cases.

U.S Treasury yields have also decreased slightly over the past handful of days. And while U.S equity indices are within sight of record values, traders should monitor developing news regarding U.S regional banks and concerns about New York Community Bancorp (NYBC). For the moment it appears investors have not turned too nervous when considering the bigger picture of stock markets. Perhaps last year’s regional bank crisis has made investors in equity indices feel immune to fears of contagion stemming from bad commercial real estate lending. Or perhaps many folks are marching along merrily and refuse to pay attention for fear of missing out when their associates continue to parade into the indices.

The cryptocurrency market has come out of its deep freeze and sunshine is pervading the mindsets of speculative gamblers in crypto assets. U.S run ETFs are raising a lot of money. Folks have driven the market sky high again in the digital asset Bitcoin and its fellow travelers like Ethereum, Binance Coin, and there have been signs of pure casino like wagering in Dogecoin and Shibu Inu. Be carefu if you are considering dipping your toes into this ‘market’. Volatility and changes of sentiment can happen in the flick of an eye.

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USD/JPY Six Month Chart as of 5th March 2024

Monday, 4th of March, Japan Capital Spending – a huge jump of 16.4% was reported yesterday. This points to better economic sentiment. The Bank of Japan has been getting a lot of attention the past handful of months because some financial institutions expect the BoJ’s monetary policy to begin changing. The USD/JPY remains near important resistance levels, but below the highs of last October and November 2023 values. Mid-term speculators may be leaning towards bearish sentiment in the currency pair, but a trend lower has not been established yet.

Tuesday, 5th of March, U.S Service PMI via ISM – last week’s growth and inflation data from the U.S was less than expected. While the U.S economy has shown rather stubborn growth, the American economy may be showing signs of slowing. Today’s reading is expected to come in below the previous month’s outcome.

Wednesday, 6th of March, U.S Federal Reserve Chairman Powell – the Fed chief will testify before the Senate via the Semi-Annual Monetary Report over a two day span. Because it is an election year a rather aggressive amount of questions will be asked. However, Powell is a skilled speaker and it unlikely he will be rattled by political rhetoric. Of interest will be any comments regarding inflation, this as the Fed Chairman is asked for insights regarding the Federal Funds Rate outlook. While this testimony in Washington D.C is usually a polite get together, the notion that some politicians may try to score points will make this a potentially important calendar event for investors to pay attention regarding financial market gyrations. Powell is expected to remain cautious regarding his answers.

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WTI Crude Oil One Year Chart as of 5th March 2024

Wednesday, 6th of March, U.S Crude Oil Inventories – last week’s U.S supply report posted increased results, yet the price of WTI Crude Oil jumped the end of last week. The value of the commodity remains within the lower part of its one year range and should be watched. Recent speculative action has shown some buying momentum. The price of energy is a big component within global inflation and should be watched as the 80.00 USD Crude Oil level is challenged.

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EUR/USD Six Month Chart as of 5th March 2024

Thursday, 7th of March, European Central Bank Main Refinancing Rate – once again the ECB is expected to not act. The question is if financial institutions may try to send the European Central Bank a message because of its ‘inaction’ as inflation remains stubborn in Europe and growth hard to achieve. The EUR/USD has returned to value above the 1.08000 mark again, but visions of a stronger EUR have been hard to attain. The combination of the ECB Monetary Policy Statement and Press Conference, as Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is addressing politicians in Washington D.C could make for an interesting day of volatility in Forex.

Thursday, 7th of March, U.S State of the Union – President Joe Biden will deliver his address to Congress.

Friday, 8th of March, U.S Non-Farm Employment Change and Average Hourly Earnings – weaker jobs numbers and diminishing wage escalation are expected. U.S economic data last week came in below estimates. This report will be a solid barometer for financial institutions. While the work force numbers in the U.S are said to be tight – meaning there is full employment – layoffs have certainly been taking place in some sectors. Also worth paying attention to in the ‘back pages’ of the report, will be the amount of average hours worked by employees which have seen a statistical decline emerge.